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In order to deal with the complex evolutionary process of the “July 20” heavy rainfall disaster in Henan province and verify the scientific and effective emergency management measures, by using dynamic Bayesian network and applying evidence theory and emotional renewal mechanism, this paper proposed a scenario inference model which combined subjective and objective factors, and paid more attention to the research of decision-maker's emotion and other subjective factors. The results show that the dynamic Bayesian network can effectively simulate the dynamic process of scenario deduction, and the improved DS evidence theory can reduce the subjectivity of the model and deal with the uncertainty of the evolution process, the emotion renewal mechanism can effectively quantify the emotion change of decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]