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Copyright of Advances in Water Science / Shuikexue Jinzhan is the property of Editorial Board of Advances in Water Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Yellow River is the property of Editorial Board of Yellow River and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Yellow River is the property of Editorial Board of Yellow River and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Ｔｈｅ ｉｎｔｅｎｓｉｆｉｅｄ ｉｍｐａｃｔ ｏｆ ｃｌｉｍａｔｅ ｃｈａｎｇｅ ａｎｄ ａｎｔｈｒｏｐｏｇｅｎｉｃ ａｃｔｉｖｉｔｉｅｓ ｈａｓ ｃｈａｎｇｅｄ ｔｈｅ ｓｔａｔｉｏｎａｒｙ ｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓ ｏｆ ｔｈｅ ｈｙｄｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌ ｅｘｔｒｅｍｅ ｓｅｒｉｅｓ， ｔｈｕｓ ｐｏｓｉｎｇ ａ ｃｈａｌｌｅｎｇｅ ｏｎ ｔｈｅ Ｔｒａｄｉｔｉｏｎａｌ Ｈｙｄｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌ Ｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｃｙ Ａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ （ＴＨＦＡ） ｍｅｔｈｏｄ． Ｔｈｅｒｅｆｏｒｅ， ａ ｎｅｗ ｔｈｅｏｒｙ ａｎｄ ａｐｐｒｏａｃｈ ｉｓ ｒｅｑｕｉｒｅｄ ｆｏｒ ａｎａｌｙｚｉｎｇ ｎｏｎ⁃ｓｔａｔｉｏｎａｒｙ ｈｙｄｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌ ｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｃｙ． Ｉｎ ｔｈｉｓ ｐａｐｅｒ， ｆｕｒｔｈｅｒ ｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｏｎｓ ａｒｅ ｃｏｎｄｕｃｔｅｄ ａｂｏｕｔ ｔｈｅ ｆｕｎｄａｍｅｎｔａｌ ｉｄｅａ ｏｆ Ｅｑｕｉｖａｌｅｎｔ Ｒｅｌｉａｂｉｌｉｔｙ （ＥＲ） ａｐｐｒｏａｃｈ， ａｎｄ ＥＲ ａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎ ｆｏｒ ｔｈｅ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｆｌｏｏｄ ｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ ｕｎｄｅｒ ａ ｃｈａｎｇｉｎｇ ｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔ ｈａｓ ｂｅｅｎ ｅｘｐａｎｄｅｄ． Ｔｈｅ ＥＲ ａｐｐｒｏａｃｈ ｉｓ ｅｘｐｅｃｔｅｄ ｔｏ ａｄｄｒｅｓｓ ｔｗｏ ｋｅｙ ｉｓｓｕｅｓ： ① ｔｏ ｅｓｔｉｍａｔｅ ｔｈｅ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｆｌｏｏｄ ｗｉｔｈ ａ ｇｉｖｅｎ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｓｔａｎｄａｒｄ ｆｏｒ ａ ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ ｙｅｔ ｔｏ ｂｅ ｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｅｄ； ② ｔｏ ａｄｊｕｓｔ ｔｈｅ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｆｌｏｏｄ ｆｏｒ ａｎ ａｌｒｅａｄｙ ｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｅｄ ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ ｆｏｒ ｉｔｓ ａｄａｐｔａｔｉｏｎ ｔｏ ｔｈｅ ｃｈａｎｇｉｎｇ ｃｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｓ． Ｔｈｅ ５９ ｙｅａｒｓ ｏｆ １５⁃ｄａｙ ｆｌｏｏｄ ｖｏｌｕｍｅ ｓｅｒｉｅｓ ｆｒｏｍ １９５６ ｔｏ ２０１４ ｉｓ ｕｓｅｄ ｔｏ ｄｅｍｏｎｓｔｒａｔｅ ｔｈｅ ＥＲ ａｐｐｒｏａｃｈ， ａｎｄ ａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ ｉｓ ｃｏｎｄｕｃｔｅｄ ｆｏｒ ｔｈｅ ｉｍｐａｃｔ ｏｆ ｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒ ｕｎｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｙ ｏｎ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｆｌｏｏｄ． Ｔｈｅ ｒｅｓｕｌｔｓ ｓｈｏｗ ｔｈａｔ ｔｈｅ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｆｌｏｏｄ ｗｉｔｈ ａ ｇｉｖｅｎ ｒｅｔｕｒｎ ｐｅｒｉｏｄ ｕｎｄｅｒ ｎｏｎ⁃ｓｔａｔｉｏｎａｒｙ ｃｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｓ ｖａｒｉｅｓ ｗｉｔｈ ｔｈｅ ｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｌｉｆｅｔｉｍｅ， ａｎｄ ｔｈｅ ｕｎｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｙ ｏｆ ｔｈｅ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｆｌｏｏｄ ｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ ｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｓ ｗｈｅｎ ｔｈｅ ｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ ｄｅｓｉｇｎ ｌｉｆｅｔｉｍｅ ｅｘｔｅｎｄｓ． [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]