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建设全球能源互联网（Global Energy Interconnection, GEI），有助于推动能源体系由化石能源向低碳可再生能源转型。为确定GEI战略的实施对全球碳排放的影响，文章以计量经济学理论为基础，提出STIRPAT（stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology）模型和向量自回归（vector auto regressive, VAR）模型相结合的一种全球碳排放预测方法。研究首先利用Kaya等式和灰色关联分析方法，对与全球碳排放密切关联的驱动因素进行分析并排序；在此基础上，建立了考虑单位能耗碳排放量的拓展STIRPAT模型，实现对能源转型过程中全球碳排放进程的预测，并利用向量自回归方法明确各驱动因素之间的相互作用关系；最后，针对3种GEI建设情景，利用上述模型预测全球碳排放进程，并对结果进行分析。

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To explore the initiation and development of tidal creek network driven by tidal currents, an experimental physical model was established based on the prototype of a silt-muddy tidal flat-creek system on the Jiangsu coast. The evolutional process was simulated with an initially gentle bed slope of about 1%. The movement of flow and sediment, as well as the influence of tidal range on tidal creek development, was analyzed. The results indicated that tidal creek development was influenced by the bed slope variation. For the cases of uniform bed slope, the connection of neighboring tidal creeks, rather than headward erosion as shown by previous studies, resulted in the development of tidal networks. A strong flow and sediment movement occurred at the early flood and the late ebb stages, and sediment movement was most active in the mid-intertidal flat. Tidal range had little influence on the overall pattern formation and the structure of tidal networks. The relationship between the mean drainage path length and the sub-basin area generally followed a power-law function. Tidal networks approached a dynamic equilibrium state earlier under larger tidal ranges which contributed more to the development of the tidal creek widths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To deepen the understanding of the dynamics underlying tidal creek evolution, a reduced-scale physical model was established based on the prototype of muddy silt tidal flat-creek system on the central Jiangsu coast. Driven by tidal currents, the evolution of tidal creeks was simulated starting from initial uniform bed level to a dynamic equilibrium state, and the morphology of tidal creeks was analyzed. The results showed that the tidal creek system developed with a sharp and later a smooth increasing rate. Finally, the tidal creek system achieved a dynamic equilibrium state. The development stages of the tidal creek system could be evaluated with two methods. The first index was the ratio between the total length of the tidal creek system in different experimental stages and the total length at the dynamic equilibrium state. The other was the comparison between the elevation-changing rate of tidal creeks and its adjacent tidal flat at each experimental stage. When the dynamic equilibrium state was reached, the number of ordered tidal creeks kept a substantially constant proportion in comparison to the total number of tidal creeks. The width, depth and the width-to-depth ratio of tidal creeks were in line with a lognormal distribution. It showed a power function exists between the width and the width-to-depth ratio, as well as the depth and the width-to-depth ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]