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(1) Background——Driven by the “double carbon” policy, forestry development has ushered in new opportunities. The pledge financing of the expected revenue rights of forestry carbon sinks broadens the financing paths of forest operators. It is of great significance to transform the ecological value of forestry carbon sinks into economic value for the sustainable development of forestry and the realization of carbon neutrality. (2) Methods——Taking the forest quality and pledge rate of financial institutions as the key variables, this paper established the management decision model of forest operators and financial institutions under the expected revenue rights pledge financing, and combined with the relevant data of the actual cases, the numerical simulation method and Matlab software were used to analyze the optimal strategies of both sides of the loan. (3) Results——In terms of forest quality, the fluctuation risk of forestry carbon sinks output and the increase of forest scale are not conducive to the improvement of forest quality, while the increase of carbon sinks market price and financing subsidies are conducive to the improvement of forest quality. In terms of the pledge rate of financial institutions, the increase of the fluctuation risk of forestry carbon sinks output and the increase of forest area under large forest scale will inhibit the improvement of the pledge rate, thus aggravating the financing difficulties of forest operators, while the increase of carbon sinks market price, financing subsidies and the forest area under small forest scale will promote the improvement of the pledge rate. In terms of forestry profits, the increase of fluctuation risk of forestry carbon sinks output will reduce forestry profits, while the increase of carbon sinks price, financing subsidies and forest scale will help increase the revenue of forest operators. In terms of the effectiveness of the expected revenue rights of forestry carbon sinks on the improvement of forest quality, compared with sufficient funds, when the fluctuation risk of output is moderate, the forest scale is moderate and the price of carbon sinks is low, pledge financing is more conducive to improving the management enthusiasm of forest operators, and thus improve forest quality. When the fluctuation risk of output is too high or too low, the forest scale is too large or too small, and the carbon sinks market price is high, the forest operators with sufficient funds have a higher willingness to improve the forest quality. (4) Conclusions and Discussions——When implementing the pledge financing of forestry carbon sinks revenue rights, the following policy suggestions are put forward in order to achieve high-quality development of forests and alleviate the financing difficulties of forest operators: First, strengthen the monitoring of forestry carbon sinks projects. The operation status of carbon sinks forests should be monitored regularly in order to detect the hidden risks in time, so as to reduce the uncertain risks of the output of carbon sinks. Second, establish a control mechanism of carbon sinks price. On one hand, starting from the demand side of carbon sinks, the price of carbon sinks should be increased through multiple channels, such as encouraging large and medium-sized activities such as conferences, forums and performances to prioritize the purchase of forestry carbon sinks to offset carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. On the other hand, we should be alert to the high price of carbon sinks leading to high emission reduction costs for the main bodies of social economy. Third, the government should introduce a special loan subsidy policy for the pledge financing of forestry carbon sinks. Fourth, the government should guide the forest operators to carry out forest management by providing technical support and training so as to accurately increase the carbon sinks under the moderate scale of operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of China Forestry Economy is the property of China Forestry Economy Magazine Agency and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Issues of Forestry Economics is the property of Issues of Forestry Economics Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: By predicting the demand for various wood products and domestic timber in China during the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, it is of great practical significance to rationally formulate annual limit of total lumber amount during the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan. Methods: Based on the statistical data of wood products during 2006 to 2019, using Eviews software and based on regression models, Auto-regressive moving average model and simple moving average method, the consumption, the log equivalent conversion algorithm, import and export volume of main wood products and the total timber consumption in China were predicted during the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan. Results: During the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, domestic raw logs and imported logs, sawn timber, wood pulp and other raw materials are mainly used for the manufacture of plywood, fiberboard, particleboard and other man-made panels in the timber intermediate processing market. During the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, the processing trade model of China's timber market ostensibly promoted the development of the wood product industry and increased the export value and import value of wood product trade, but it was still at the low end of the product value chain and failed to achieve high-quality development of wood products trade. During the period of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, the average annual domestic wood supply was 222 million m³ to 238 million m³, equivalent to the annual demand for forest stock of 295 million m³ to 318 million m³, which exceeded 74 million m³ to 97 million m³ compared with the forest stock of annual limit of total lumber amount. During the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, the average annual total wood consumption in China is expected to be between 512 million m³ and 535 million m³, and the average annual domestic wood supply is expected to reach 287 million m³ to 310 million m³, which is equivalent to an annual demand for forest stock of 382 million m³to 414 million m³. The gap between wood supply and demand has further expanded. Conclusions and Discussions: First, the supply of primary processing raw materials such as logs, sawn timber and wood pulp in China's domestic wood product market is obviously insufficient from 2006 to 2019. The supply of intermediate boards, such as plywood, fiberboard, particleboard, is sufficient to meet the demand of the domestic market, and the export trade volume maintains a growth trend, but the export growth rate has slowed down significantly. Second, during the period of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, the domestic average annual supply of wood is 222 million m³ to 238 million m³, equivalent to the annual demand for forest stock of 295 million m³ to 318 million m³, and the average annual wood supply and demand gap is estimated to be 74 million m³ to 97 million m³. Third, during the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, China's total annual wood consumption is expected to be 512 million m³ to 535 million m³, of which the average annual domestic wood supply is expected to reach 287 million m³to 310 million m³, which is equivalent to the annual demand for forest stock 382 million m³ to 414 million m³. Based on the above research, the recommendations are as follows: First, the cooperative relationship with timber trading countries need to be strengthened to ensure the import scale of primary products such as logs, sawn timber and wood pulp. Second, the efficiency of comprehensive utilization of wood is required to be improved. Third, forest management can be earnestly carried out, and the quality of plantations can be improved, which help to increase the level of domestic log supply from the source. Fourth, it is required to formulate the annual limit of total lumber amount rationally. Fifth, it is necessary to implement the forest logging management procedures flexibly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]