1. 小儿免疫性血小板减少症疾病转归的影响因素及 风险预测模型构建.
- Author
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周妮娜, 顾健辉, 杨治平, 盛俞, and 姜荣
- Abstract
Objective To study factors influencing the outcome of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in children, and construct a risk prediction model. Methods A total of 166 children with ITP were included in this study. Clinical characteristics and laboratory indicators of children with different outcomes were comparatively analyzed. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed to screen factors influencing the outcome of children with ITP, and a risk prediction model was constructed based on analysis results. Hosmer-Lemeshow tested the goodness of fit of the model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to analyze the predictive performance of the model. Results There were 118 children with good outcomes and 48 children with poor outcomes. Compared with the good outcome group, the proportions of age ≥1, ANA positive at first diagnosis and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level were higher in the poor outcome group, while the proportion of platelet count (PLT) ≥20´109/L at first diagnosis, absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) at first diagnosis and the percentage of megakaryocytes in bone marrow at first diagnosis were lower in the poor outcome group (P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥1 (95% CI: 1.358-83.563) and higher BUN level (95% CI: 4.013-32.615) were risk factors for disease outcome in children with ITP. PLT ≥20´109/L at initial diagnosis (95% CI: 0.036-0.519) and higher ALC at initial diagnosis (95% CI: 0.197-0.571) were protective factors for disease outcome in children with ITP. Homser-lemeshow test showed c2=8.486, P=0.387. The AUC of this model in predicting the outcome of children with ITP was 0.963 (95% CI: 0.934-0.991, P<0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were 95.83% and 88.98%. Conclusion Age ≥1 and higher BUN level are risk factors for disease outcome in children with ITP. PLT ≥20´109/L at initial diagnosis and higher ALC level at initial diagnosis are protective factors. The risk prediction model constructed according to these influencing factors has good predictive valuse for disease outcome of children with ITP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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