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The Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) is the largest eagle in Kazakhstan, breeding in almost all mountainous and forested areas of the country. In Karatau and the Chu-Ili Mountains, there are large breeding groups of this species, which have been threatened by the development of a network of wind power plants (WPPs) since 2021 since both of these breeding groups are concentrated in powerful wind corridors that are promising for wind energy generation. During the work, we modelled the distribution of the Golden Eagle in Karatau and the Chu-Ili Mountains using the Random Forest image classification method, calculated its numbers in this area and assessed the threats to its breeding groups from both existing and prospective WPPs. The area of breeding biotopes for the Golden Eagle is 18209.9 km2, and the area of habitats is 67602.43 km2. The Golden Eagle population in Karatau as of 2024 is estimated at 434–645, on average 466 breeding pairs (80 breeding territories are known), and 1126–1674, an average of 1209 ind., taking into account fledglings of the current year and immature eagles, in the Chu-Ili Mountains – at 163–292, on average 222 breeding pairs (40 breeding territories is known), and 422–757, on average 575 ind. The number of Golden Eagles migrating through Karatau is estimated at 7276–11423, with an average of 8386 ind. In the zone of influence of the Zhanatas and Shokpar windfarms, which has a radius of 4.5 km, three pairs of breeding Golden Eagles disappeared over 3 years. Some of the birds from the disbanded pairs died due to collisions with the blades of wind turbines, which is confirmed by the remains of 2 Golden Eagles under the turbines. Based on calculations in the CRM “Band”, a risk map with a cell step of 5 km was created, representing an assessment of the probable mortality of eagles during the construction of wind farms in these cells. The results of this study apply to the conservation planning efforts of the Golden Eagle, analysing the risks of developing not only wind energy but also other land uses, including mining and even recreation, and implementing compensatory measures for human intervention in the Goolden Eagle's habitat.

Численность и распределение в пространстве изучаемых птиц определяются в ходе полевых учётов. На выходе мы получаем плотность распределения в особях, парах, гнёздах на единицу площади (например, пар/100 км2 ) или дистанции между ближайшими или всеми соседями, которые можно представить как в виде математических значений (1–5, в среднем 3,5±1,1 км), так и в графическом виде (от простых линий, связывающих точки наблюдений, до триангуляции Делоне и сети полигонов, построенной по точкам наблюдений). Далее, для получения оценки численности, необходимо понимать площадь, на которую возможно экстраполировать эти данные. И с этим у многих исследователей возникают проблемы – неправильная оценка площади мест обитания учитываемого вида приводит к искажению оценки численности и нивелирует учётные усилия. Как правильно определить площадь, на которую возможно экстраполировать учётные данные?

Any species distribution modelling method requires two types of input data: (1) occurrences of the focal species, represented as a set of points with geographic coordinates; and (2) environmental variables (predictors) that may be valuable for species distribution, in the format of continuous raster layers. Considerable advances in the digitization of scientific collections around the globe and development of other sources for species distribution data have made it possible for researchers to significantly augment their own data to develop more accurate models.

Орёл-могильник (Aquila heliaca) – редкий гнездящийся вид Казахстана. Ранее предполагалось, что одна из крупных гнездовых группировок этого вида, причём самая юго-восточная в ареале, сосредоточена в песках Мойынкум и прилегающих полупустынных районах на юге Казахстана. По результатам исследований 2022–2023 г. мы подтвердили наличие крупной гнездовой группировки орла-могильника в Мойынкумах (было выявлено 38 занятых гнездовых участков) и смоделировали его распространение в Google Earth Engine используя метод классификации изображений – Random Forest (вероятность + регрессия). Площадь гнездопригодных для орла-могильника биотопов в Мойынкумах определена в 4971,09 км2, площадь местообитаний – 55073,86 км2. Численность орла-могильника на рассматриваемой территории оценена в 79–275, в среднем 150 пар. Несмотря на затяжную депрессию численности грызунов, численность орлов остаётся стабильной. Размер выводков до вылета варьировал от 1 до 3 птенцов, составив в среднем (n=5) 2±0,71 птенца на успешное гнездо и (n=9) 1,11±1,17 птенцов на активное гнездо, после вылета – от 1 до 2 слётков, составив в среднем (n=4) 1,75±0,5 слётков на успешное гнездо и (n=9) 0,78±0,97 слётков на активное гнездо. Общий успех размножения по всем проверенным гнёздам составил 44,44%, а эффективность размножения – 58,33%. Основными антропогенными угрозами гнездовой группировке орла-могильника в Мойынкумах являются консервация скважин, ведущая к ликвидации ферм и прекращению выпаса скота, а также добыча урана.

Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) is a globally threatened species. The northernmost limit of its breeding range is located in Kazakhstan and is fragmented into three large enclaves. The Karatau range is one such enclave. It was previously assumed that a small number of Egyptian Vultures nested here; however, research showed the fallacy of such ideas in 2010. In 2022, Karatau was surveyed in more detail to detect Egyptian Vultures. Based on the results of studies in 2010 and 2022, we modeled Egyptian Vulture distribution in Google Earth Engine using the image classification method — Random Forest (probability + regression) and calculated its possible abundance in Karatau utilizing several methods, including Distance Sampling. The area of breeing biotopes of the Egyptian Vulture is determined at 10,378.85 km2, the area of habitats – 34,576.8 km2. The Egyptian Vulture population in Karatau for 2022 is estimated at 171–298 breeding pairs (average of 278 breeding pairs), and 43–74 successful pairs (average of 69 successful pairs) (91 breeding territories are known). Based on the obtained data and publications analysis, we assume that the Karatau Egyptian Vulture population is stable despite deterioration in habitat quality and reduction in breeding success of the species in recent years.

MaxEnt method calculated the probability distribution of three groups of resistance of plants species to Sochi climate based on the results of the introduction of the 1950 – 1975. Geographical coordinates locations of plants taken from the Global Database on Biodiversity (GBIF), the climatic data of high resolution (30 arc-seconds) - from the global data set Bioclim for 1950-2000. Modeling was performed on all global land areas using training data set from 50% of the GBIF records, in a 4 replicates. For the criterion of habitat suitability of the territory was used the 10% training presence logistic threshold because of the data is likely to have some errors. The Maxent model had an AUC of 0.936, 0.952 and 0.972 for I, II и III groups of resistance to climate meaning the model fit the presence data well. The internal jackknife test of variable importance showed that ‘Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter’, ‘Annual Mean Temperature’ and ‘Min Temperature of Coldest Month’ were the three most important predictors of habitat distribution. Maps of probabilities of three groups of resistance of plants for the region of Sochi have been merged into a multi-channel raster in ArcGIS. With the tools module Spatial Analysis was performed cluster analysis and constructed clustering dendrogram. Clusters are merged hierarchically into seven climatic zones suitable for growing exotic species. Defined the mean monthly temperature and precipitation for each zone. The diagram shows the dependence of the probability distribution of the three groups resistance from the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation. Describes the climatic conditions of the zones.