339 results on '"Ćirković, Milan M."'
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2. The nutshell kings: Why is human space settlement controversial in the first place?
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Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Physics - Physics and Society - Abstract
Recent years have seen both a revival of space programs, mostly propelled by private industry's increasing interest, but also the emergence of strong resistance to human space activities on several levels. This is partly a manifestation of a wider counter-Enlightenment Zeitgeist, as detectable in other sectors of public life in the West, and partly a reaction against the widespread engagement of the private sector. While it still does not dominate the discourse on space issues, space skepticism is surprisingly wide-ranging and decentralized phenomenon, gathering together heterogeneous strands of thought from pro-Enlightenment liberals to rabid "deep ecology" activists to philosophical pessimists to antiglobalists of all colors. There has been precious little in way of actively opposing this cultural trend so far, however. While space engineers and entrepreneurs conduct their "business as usual", there are plethora of risks hidden in this cultural climate, esp. if one adopts much repeated (and rarely adequately understood) maxim that "politics is downstream of culture." The present article will review major strands of thought within this big tent cultural movement, offer plausible counter-arguments to space skeptics, and outline important cultural and public-outreach work which needs to be done to balance the scales., Comment: 16 pages, no figures; accepted for publication in "Futures"
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- 2022
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3. Gaia as Solaris: An Alternative Default Evolutionary Trajectory
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Janković, Srdja, Katić, Ana, and Ćirković, Milan M.
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Physics - Popular Physics ,Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics - Abstract
Now that we know that Earth-like planets are ubiquitous in the universe, as well as that most of them are much older than the Earth, it is justified to ask to what extent evolutionary outcomes on other such planets are similar, or indeed commensurable, to the outcomes we perceive around us. In order to assess the degree of specialty or mediocrity of our trajectory of biospheric evolution, we need to take into account recent advances in theoretical astrobiology, in particular (i) establishing the history of habitable planets' formation in the Galaxy, and (ii) understanding the crucial importance of "Gaian" feedback loops and temporal windows for the interaction of early life with its physical environment. Hereby we consider an alternative macroevolutionary pathway that may result in tight functional integration of all sub-planetary ecosystems, eventually giving rise to a true superorganism at the biospheric level. The blueprint for a possible outcome of this scenario has been masterfully provided by the great Polish novelist Stanis{\l}aw Lem in his 1961 novel Solaris. In fact, Solaris offers such a persuasive and powerful case for an "extremely strong" Gaia hypothesis that it is, arguably, high time to investigate it in a discursive astrobiological and philosophical context. In addition to novel predictions in the domain of potentially detectable biosignatures, some additional cognitive and heuristic benefits of studying such extreme cases of functional integration are briefly discussed., Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure; accepted in "Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres"
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- 2022
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4. Longevity is the key factor in the search for technosignatures
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Balbi, Amedeo and Ćirković, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics ,Physics - Popular Physics - Abstract
It is well-known that the chances of success of SETI depend on the longevity of technological civilizations or, more broadly, on the duration of the signs of their existence, or technosignatures. Here, we re-examine this general tenet in more detail, and we show that its broader implications were not given the proper significance. In particular, an often overlooked aspect is that the duration of a technosignature is in principle almost entirely separable from the age of the civilization that produces it. We propose a classification scheme of technosignatures based on their duration and, using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that, given an initial generic distribution of Galactic technosignatures, only the ones with the longest duration are likely to be detected. This tells us, among other things, that looking for a large number of short-lived technosignatures is a weaker observational strategy than focusing the search on a few long-lived ones. It also suggests to abandon any anthropocentric bias in approaching the question of extraterrestrial intelligence. We finally give some ideas of possible pathways that can lead to the establishment of long-lived technosignatures., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal
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- 2021
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5. Water transport throughout the TRAPPIST-1 system: the role of planetesimals
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Đošović, Vladimir, Novaković, Bojan, Vukotić, Branislav, and Ćirković, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics - Abstract
Observational data suggest that a belt of planetesimals is expected close to the snow line in protoplanetary disks. Assuming there is such a belt in TRAPPIST-1 system, we examine possibilities of water delivery to the planets via planetesimals from the belt. The study is accomplished by numerical simulations of dynamical evolution of a hypothetical planetesimal belt. Our results show that the inner part of the belt is dynamically unstable and planetesimals located in this region are quickly scattered away, with many of them entering the region around the planets. The main dynamical mechanism responsible for the instability are close encounters with the outermost planet Trappist-1h. A low-order mean-motion resonance 2:3 with Trappist-1h, located in the same region, also contributes to the objects transport. In our nominal model, the planets have received non-negligible amount of water, with the smallest amount of $15$\% of the current Earth's water amount (EWA) being delivered to the planet 1b, while the planets Trappist-1e and Trappist-1g have received more than $60$\% of the EWA. We have found that while the estimated efficiency of water transport to the planets is robust, the amount of water delivered to each planet may vary significantly depending on the initial masses and orbits of the planets. The estimated dynamical "half-lives" have shown that the impactors' source region should be emptied in less then 1~Myr. Therefore, the obtained results suggest that transport of planetesimals through the system preferably occurs during an early phase of the planetary system evolution., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures; MNRAS, accepted for publication
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- 2020
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6. Habitability of M dwarfs is a problem for the traditional SETI
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Ćirković, Milan M. and Vukotić, Branislav
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Physics - Popular Physics ,Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics - Abstract
We consider some implications of the much-discussed circumstellar habitable zones around M-dwarf stars for the conventionally understood radio SETI. We argue that the flaring nature of these stars would further adversely impact local development of radio communication and that, therefore, their circumstellar habitable zones should be preferentially studied by other methods. This is a clear example how diversity of astrobiological habitats is introducing contingency into the cultural evolution, thus undermining the universality of cultural convergence as one of the major premises of the traditional SETI. This is yet another example of how specifics of the physical environment strongly shape cultural evolution taken in the broadest, most inclusive sense., Comment: 15 pages, 1 figure; Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, accepted for publication
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- 2020
7. Habitability of galaxies and application of merger trees in astrobiology
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Stojković, Neda, Vukotić, Branislav, and Ćirković, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies ,Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics - Abstract
Galaxies represent the main form of organization of matter in our universe. Therefore, they are of obvious interest for the new multidisciplinary field of astrobiology. In particular, to study habitability of galaxies represents one of the main emerging challenges of theoretical and numerical astrobiology. Its theoretical underpinnings are, however, often confused and vague. Here we present a systematic attempt to list and categorize major causal factors playing a role in emergent habitability of galaxies. Furthermore, we argue that the methodology of cosmological merger trees is particularly useful in delineating what are systematic and lawful astrobiological properties of galaxies at present epoch vs. those which are product of historical contingency and, in particular, interaction with wider extragalactic environment. Employing merger trees extracted from cosmological N-body simulations as a new and promising research method for astrobiology has been pioneered by Stanway et al. (2018). We analyse the general issue of applicability of merger trees and present preliminary results on a set of trees extracted from the Illustris Project. In a sense, this approach is directly complementary to using large-scale cosmological simulations to study habitable zones of individual galaxies with high mass/spatial resolution; taken together, they usher a new era of synergy and synthesis between cosmology and astrobiology., Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures
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- 2019
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8. Copernicanism and the Typicality in Time
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Ćirković, Milan M. and Balbi, Amedeo
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Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics ,Astrophysics - Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics ,Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics ,Physics - Popular Physics - Abstract
How special (or not) is the epoch we are living in? What is the appropriate reference class for embedding the observations made at the present time? How probable -- or else -- is anything we observe in the fulness of time? Contemporary cosmology and astrobiology bring those seemingly old-fashioned philosophical issues back into focus. There are several examples of contemporary research which use the assumption of typicality in time (or temporal Copernicanism) explicitly or implicitly, while not truly elaborating upon the meaning of this assumption. The present paper brings attention to the underlying and often uncritically accepted assumptions in these cases. It also aims to defend a more radical position that typicality in time is not -- and cannot ever be -- well-defined, in contrast to the typicality in space, and the typicality in various specific parameter spaces. This, of course, does not mean that we are atypical in time; instead, the notion of typicality in time is necessarily somewhat vague and restricted. In principle, it could be strengthened by further defining the relevant context, e.g., by referring to typicality within the Solar lifetime, or some similar restricting clause., Comment: 19 pages, 2 figure, accepted for publication in "International Journal of Astrobiology"
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- 2019
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9. Persistence of Technosignatures: A Comment on Lingam and Loeb
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Ćirković, Milan M., Vukotić, Branislav, and Stojanović, Milan
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Physics - Popular Physics ,Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics - Abstract
In a recent paper in this journal, Lingam and Loeb (2018) develop an excellent heuristic for searches for biosignatures vs. technosignatures. We consider two ways in which their approach could be extended and sharpened, with focus on durability of technosignatures. We also note an important consequence of the adopted heuristic which offers strong support to the ideas of the Dysonian SETI., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrobiology
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- 2019
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10. Advanced Aspects of the Galactic Habitability
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Đošović, Vladimir, Vukotić, Branislav, and Ćirković, Milan M.
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Physics - Popular Physics ,Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics ,Nonlinear Sciences - Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases - Abstract
Context. Astrobiological evolution of the Milky Way (or the shape of its "astrobiological landscape") has emerged as one of the key research topics in recent years. In order to build precise, quantitative models of the Galactic habitability, we need to account for two opposing tendencies of life and intelligence in the most general context: the tendency to spread to all available ecological niches (conventionally dubbed "colonization") and the tendency to succumb to various types of existential catastrophes ("catastrophism"). These evolutionary tendencies have become objects of study in fields such as ecology, macroevolution, risk analysis, and futures studies, while a serious astrobiological treatment has been lacking so far. Aims. Our aim is to numerically investigate the dynamics of opposed processes of expansion (panspermia, colonization) and extinction (catastrophic mechanisms) of life in the Galaxy. Methods. We employ a new type of numerical simulation based on 1D probabilistic cellular automaton with very high temporal resolution, in order to study astrobiological dynamics. Results. While the largest part of the examined parameter space shows very low habitability values, as expected, the remaining part has some observationally appealing features that imply, among other things, a reduction in the amount of fine-tuning necessary for resolving the Fermi paradox. Conclusions. Advanced aspects of Galactic habitability are amenable to precision studies using massive parallel computer simulations. There are regions of parameter space corresponding to a quasi-stationary state satisfying observable constraints and possessing viable SETI targets., Comment: Language corrected version, to appear in Astronomy & astrophysics
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- 2019
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11. A note on the Vukotić-Gordon mini-earths
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Ćirković Milan M.
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astrobiology ,extraterrestrial intelligence ,black hole physics ,magnetic fields ,methods: analytical ,Astronomy ,QB1-991 - Abstract
A recent proposal for a new kind of astroengineering artifact due to Vukotić and Gordon (2022) is discussed, in particular in light of multiple benefits offered by the magnetic Penrose process. It is argued that constructing a large number of artifacts of this kind is sufficiently strongly motivated for any advanced extraterrestrial society that their statistical weight in the set of all technosignatures will be significant. This will, in turn, have important consequences for our practical SETI/search for technosignatures projects.
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- 2023
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12. The information catastrophe and space settlement
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Ćirković, Milan M.
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- 2023
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13. Alternative Explanations of the Cosmic Microwave Background: A Historical and an Epistemological Perspective
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Cirkovic, Milan M. and Perovic, Slobodan
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Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics ,Astrophysics - Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics - Abstract
We historically trace various non-conventional explanations for the origin of the cosmic microwave background and discuss their merit, while analyzing the dynamics of their rejection, as well as the relevant physical and methodological reasons for it. It turns out that there have been many such unorthodox interpretations; not only those developed in the context of theories rejecting the relativistic ("Big Bang") paradigm entirely (e.g., by Alfven, Hoyle and Narlikar) but also those coming from the camp of original thinkers firmly entrenched in the relativistic milieu (e.g., by Rees, Ellis, Rowan-Robinson, Layzer and Hively). In fact, the orthodox interpretation has only incrementally won out against the alternatives over the course of the three decades of its multi-stage development. While on the whole, none of the alternatives to the hot Big Bang scenario is persuasive today, we discuss the epistemic ramifications of establishing orthodoxy and eliminating alternatives in science, an issue recently discussed by philosophers and historians of science for other areas of physics. Finally, we single out some plausible and possibly fruitful ideas offered by the alternatives., Comment: 53 pages, accepted in "The Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics"
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- 2017
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14. That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox
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Sandberg, Anders, Armstrong, Stuart, and Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Physics - Popular Physics - Abstract
If a civilization wants to maximize computation it appears rational to aestivate until the far future in order to exploit the low temperature environment: this can produce a $10^{30}$ multiplier of achievable computation. We hence suggest the "aestivation hypothesis": the reason we are not observing manifestations of alien civilizations is that they are currently (mostly) inactive, patiently waiting for future cosmic eras. This paper analyzes the assumptions going into the hypothesis and how physical law and observational evidence constrain the motivations of aliens compatible with the hypothesis., Comment: Submitted to Journal of the British Interplanetary Society
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- 2017
15. Mindhunter: Transcending Geocentrism and Psychocentrism in Stanislaw Lem’s The Invincible and Peace on Earth
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Cirkovic, Milan M., Alpert, Mark, Series Editor, Ball, Philip, Series Editor, Benford, Gregory, Series Editor, Brotherton, Michael, Series Editor, Callaghan, Victor, Series Editor, Eden, Amnon H, Series Editor, Kanas, Nick, Series Editor, Rucker, Rudy, Series Editor, Schulze-Makuch, Dirk, Series Editor, Vaas, Rüdiger, Series Editor, Walter, Ulrich, Series Editor, Webb, Stephen, Series Editor, Dainton, Barry, editor, Slocombe, Will, editor, and Tanyi, Attila, editor
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- 2021
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16. SETI and Temporal Copernicanism
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Balbi, Amedeo, Ćirković, Milan M., Montebugnoli, Stelio, editor, Melis, Andrea, editor, and Antonietti, Nicolò, editor
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- 2021
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17. Anthropocentrism and the Roots of Resistance to Both Human Bioenhancement and Space Colonization
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Ćirković, Milan M., Vakoch, Douglas A., Editor-in-Chief, Aoki, Setsuko, Series Editor, Milligan, Anthony, Series Editor, O'Leary, Beth, Series Editor, and Szocik, Konrad, editor
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- 2020
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18. Future space missions and human enhancement: Medical and ethical challenges
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Szocik, Konrad, Shelhamer, Mark, Braddock, Martin, Cucinotta, Francis A., Impey, Chris, Worden, Pete, Peters, Ted, Ćirković, Milan M., Smith, Kelly C., Tachibana, Koji, Reiss, Michael J., Norman, Ziba, Gouw, Arvin M., and Munévar, Gonzalo
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- 2021
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19. Long-Term Prospects: Mitigation of Supernova and Gamma-Ray Burst Threat to Intelligent Beings
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Cirkovic, Milan M. and Vukotic, Branislav
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Physics - Popular Physics ,Physics - Space Physics - Abstract
We consider global catastrophic risks due to cosmic explosions (supernovae, magnetars and gamma-ray bursts) and possible mitigation strategies by humans and other hypothetical intelligent beings. While by their very nature these events are so huge to daunt conventional thinking on mitigation and response, we wish to argue that advanced technological civilizations would be able to develop efficient responses in the domain of astroengineering within their home planetary systems. In particular, we suggest that construction of shielding swarms of small objects/particles confined by electromagnetic fields could be one way of mitigating the risk of cosmic explosions and corresponding ionizing radiation surges. Such feats of astroengineering could, in principle, be detectable from afar by advanced Dysonian SETI searches., Comment: Accepted for publication in Acta Astronautica. 21 pages, 1 figure, 1 table
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- 2016
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20. Fermi's Paradox Is a Daunting Problem---Under Whatever Label
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Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Physics - General Physics - Abstract
Gray (2015) argued that the Fermi paradox (FP) is a misnomer, and it is not a valid paradox. Gray also speculated that the argument was misattributed to Fermi, whose lunchtime remarks did not pertain to the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence, but to the feasibility of interstellar travel. Instead, the paradox is ascribed to Hart and Tipler, and it is further suggested that the paradox is not a real problem or research subject and should not be used in debates about SETI projects. The arguments given are unpersuasive, ahistorical, and, in at least one instance, clearly hinge on literalistic and uncharitable reading of evidence. Instead, I argue the following three points: (i) Contrary to Gray's assertion, the historical issue of naming of ideas or concepts is completely divorced from their epistemic status. (ii) FP is easily and smoothly generalized into the Great Silence paradox, so it makes no sense either theoretically or empirically to separate the two. (iii) In sharp contrast to the main implication of Gray's paper, FP has become more aggravated lately due to advances in astrobiology., Comment: Reply to arXiv:1605.09187
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- 2016
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21. Kardashev's Classification at 50+: A Fine Vehicle with Room for Improvement
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Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics ,Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics ,Physics - Popular Physics - Abstract
We review the history and status of the famous classification of extraterrestrial civilizations given by the great Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Semenovich Kardashev, roughly half a century after it has been proposed. While Kardashev's classification (or Kardashev's scale) has often been seen as oversimplified, and multiple improvements, refinements, and alternatives to it have been suggested, it is still one of the major tools for serious theoretical investigation of SETI issues. During these 50+ years, several attempts at modifying or reforming the classification have been made; we review some of them here, together with presenting some of the scenarios which present difficulties to the standard version. Recent results in both theoretical and observational SETI studies, especially the G-hat infrared survey (2014-2015), have persuasively shown that the emphasis on detectability inherent in Kardashev's classification obtains new significance and freshness. Several new movements and conceptual frameworks, such as the Dysonian SETI, tally extremely well with these developments. So, the apparent simplicity of the classification is highly deceptive: Kardashev's work offers a wealth of still insufficiently studied methodological and epistemological ramifications and it remains, in both letter and spirit, perhaps the worthiest legacy of the SETI "founding fathers"., Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables
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- 2016
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22. Multimessenger SETI and Techniques
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Vukotić, Branislav, primary, Ćirković, Milan M, additional, and Filipović, Miroslav D, additional
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- 2021
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23. Planetary science through an ethnographic telescope: Janet Vertesi: Shaping science: organizations, decisions, and culture on NASA’s teams. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2020, 352 pp, $45.00 cloth
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Ćirković, Milan M.
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- 2021
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24. Inductive Probabilities in Astrobiology and SETI: Have Sceptics Retreated?
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Ćirković, Milan M., Georgiev, Georgi Yordanov, editor, Smart, John M., editor, Flores Martinez, Claudio L., editor, and Price, Michael E., editor
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- 2019
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25. Cosmology and Hilbert's sixth problem
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Ćirković Milan M.
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history and philosophy of astronomy ,cosmology: theory ,astrobiology ,Astronomy ,QB1-991 - Abstract
There have been tantalizing indications from many quarters of physical cosmology that we are living in the multiverse - a huge set of cosmological domains ("universes"). What is the structure of this larger whole is an entirely open problem on the interface between physics and metaphysics. A goal of the present paper is to draw attention to the connection between this problem and an old and celebrated puzzle in mathematical physics. Among the unresolved problems David Hilbert posed in 1900 as a challenge for the dawning century, none is more philosophically controversial than the Sixth Problem, requiring the axiomatization of physical theories. In the new century and the new millennium, this problem has remained a challenge, usually swept under the rug as "not belonging to mathematics" (as if that impacts its epistemical status) or simply "unresolved". Recent radical ontological/cosmological hypothesis of Max Tegmark, identifying mathematical and physical structures, might shed some new light onto this allegedly antiquated subject: it might be the case that the problem has already been solved, insofar we have formalized mathematical structures! While this can be seen as "cutting the Gordian knot" rather than patiently resolving the issue, we suggest that there are several advantages to taking Tegmark's solution seriously, notably in the domain of (future) physics of the observer. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. ON176021: Visible and Invisible Matter in Nearby Galaxies: Theory and Observations and Grant no. ON179048: The Theory and Practice of Science in Society: Multidisciplinary, Educational, and Intergenerational Perspectives]
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- 2020
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26. Space colonization remains the only long-term option for humanity: A reply to Torres
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Ćirković, Milan M.
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- 2019
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27. Cellular Automation of Galactic Habitable Zone
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Vukotic, Branislav and Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Galaxy Astrophysics ,Nonlinear Sciences - Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases - Abstract
We present a preliminary results of our Galactic Habitable Zone (GHZ) 2D probabilistic cellular automata models. The relevant time-scales (emergence of life, it's diversification and evolution influenced with the global risk function) are modeled as the probability matrix elements and are chosen in accordance with the Copernican principle to be well-represented by the data inferred from the Earth's fossil record. With Fermi's paradox as a main boundary condition the resulting histories of astrobiological landscape are discussed., Comment: 4 pages, one figure, to appear in Publication of the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade (6th SREAC Meeting proceedings)
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- 2010
28. Galactic Punctuated Equilibrium: How to Undermine Carter's Anthropic Argument in Astrobiology
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Cirkovic, Milan M., Vukotic, Branislav, and Dragicevic, Ivana
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Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics - Abstract
We investigate a new strategy which can defeat the (in)famous Carter's "anthropic" argument against extraterrestrial life and intelligence. In contrast to those already considered by Wilson, Livio, and others, the present approach is based on relaxing hidden uniformitarian assumptions, considering instead a dynamical succession of evolutionary regimes governed by both global (Galaxy-wide) and local (planet- or planetary system-limited) regulation mechanisms. This is in accordance with recent developments in both astrophysics and evolutionary biology. Notably, our increased understanding of the nature of supernovae and gamma-ray bursts, as well as of strong coupling between the Solar System and the Galaxy on one hand, and the theories of "punctuated equilibria" of Eldredge and Gould and "macroevolutionary regimes" of Jablonski, Valentine, et al. on the other, are in full accordance with the regulation- mechanism picture. The application of this particular strategy highlights the limits of application of Carter's argument, and indicates that in the real universe its applicability conditions are not satisfied. We conclude that drawing far-reaching conclusions about the scarcity of extraterrestrial intelligence and the prospects of our efforts to detect it on the basis of this argument is unwarranted., Comment: 3 figures, 26 pages
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- 2009
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29. Fermi's Paradox - The Last Challenge for Copernicanism?
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Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics - Abstract
We review Fermi's paradox (or the "Great Silence" problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already a more than three quarters of a century old puzzle - and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin - Fermi's paradox has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built into various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophic hypotheses gives, on balance, the strongest justification for guarded optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts., Comment: 39 pages, 3 figures, slightly expanded in comparison to the journal version
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- 2009
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30. Against the Empire
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Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Abstract
It is argued that the "generic" evolutionary pathway of advanced technological civilizations are more likely to be optimization-driven than expansion-driven, in contrast to the prevailing opinions and attitudes in both future studies on one side and astrobiology/SETI studies on the other. Two toy-models of postbiological evolution of advanced technological civilizations are considered and several arguments supporting the optimization-driven, spatially compact model are briefly discussed. In addition, it is pointed out that there is a subtle contradiction in most of the tech-optimist and transhumanist accounts of future human/alien civilizations' motivations in its postbiological stages. This may have important ramifications for both practical SETI projects and the future (of humanity) studies., Comment: 17 pages, no figures, accepted in JBIS
- Published
- 2008
31. Anthropocentrism and the Roots of Resistance to Both Human Bioenhancement and Space Colonization
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Ćirković, Milan M., primary
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- 2020
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32. Evolutionary Catastrophes and the Goldilocks Problem
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Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Astrophysics ,Physics - Geophysics ,Physics - Physics and Society ,Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution - Abstract
One of the mainstays of the controversial "rare Earth" hypothesis is the "Goldilocks problem" regarding various parameters describing a habitable planet, partially involving the role of mass extinctions and other catastrophic processes in biological evolution. Usually, this is construed as support for the uniqueness of the Earth's biosphere and intelligent human life. Here I argue that this is a misconstrual and that, on the contrary, observation-selection effects, when applied to catastrophic processes, make it very difficult for us to discern whether the terrestrial biosphere and evolutionary processes which created it are exceptional in the Milky Way or not. In particular, an anthropic overconfidence bias related to the temporal asymmetry of evolutionary processes appears when we try to straightforwardly estimate catastrophic risks from the past records on Earth. This agnosticism, in turn, supports the validity and significance of practical astrobiological and SETI research., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, International Journal of Astrobiology, accepted for publication
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- 2007
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33. Macroengineering in the Galactic Context: A New Agenda for Astrobiology
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Cirkovic, Milan M.
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Astrophysics - Abstract
We hereby consider the problem of detectability of macro-engineering projects over interstellar distances, in the context of Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Freeman J. Dyson and his imaginative precursors, like Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Olaf Stapledon or John B. S. Haldane, suggested macro-engineering projects as focal points in the context of extrapolations about the future of humanity and, by analogy, other intelligent species in the Milky Way. We emphasize that the search for signposts of extraterrestrial macro-engineering projects is not an optional pursuit within the family of ongoing and planned SETI projects; inter alia, the failure of the orthodox SETI thus far clearly indicates this. Instead, this approach (for which we suggest a name of "Dysonian") should be the front-line and mainstay of any cogent SETI strategy in future, being significantly more promising than searches for directed, intentional radio or microwave emissions. This is in accord with our improved astrophysical understanding of the structure and evolution of the Galactic Habitable Zone, as well as with the recent wake-up call of Steven J. Dick to investigate consequences of postbiological evolution for astrobiology in general and SETI programs in particular. The benefits this multidisciplinary approach may bear for astrobiologists, evolutionary theorists and macro-engineers are also briefly highlighted., Comment: Expanded version of the contribution to "Macro-Engineering: A Challenge for the Future" ed. by Viorel Badescu, Richard B. Cathcart, and Roelof D. Schuiling, in press; no figures
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- 2006
34. Galactic Gradients, Postbiological Evolution and the Apparent Failure of SETI
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Cirkovic, Milan M. and Bradbury, Robert J.
- Subjects
Astrophysics ,Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence ,Physics - Physics and Society - Abstract
Motivated by recent developments impacting our view of Fermi's paradox (absence of extraterrestrials and their manifestations from our past light cone), we suggest a reassessment of the problem itself, as well as of strategies employed by SETI projects so far. The need for such reevaluation is fueled not only by the failure of searches thus far, but also by great advances recently made in astrophysics, astrobiology, computer science and future studies, which have remained largely ignored in SETI practice. As an example of the new approach, we consider the effects of the observed metallicity and temperature gradients in the Milky Way on the spatial distribution of hypothetical advanced extraterrestrial intelligent communities. While, obviously, properties of such communities and their sociological and technological preferences are entirely unknown, we assume that (1) they operate in agreement with the known laws of physics, and (2) that at some point they typically become motivated by a meta-principle embodying the central role of information-processing; a prototype of the latter is the recently suggested Intelligence Principle of Steven J. Dick. There are specific conclusions of practical interest to be drawn from coupling of these reasonable assumptions with the astrophysical and astrochemical structure of the Galaxy. In particular, we suggest that the outer regions of the Galactic disk are most likely locations for advanced SETI targets, and that intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing increase, for both thermodynamical and astrochemical reasons. This can also be regarded as a possible generalization of the Galactic Habitable Zone, concept currently much investigated in astrobiology., Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures
- Published
- 2005
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Too Early? On the Apparent Conflict of Astrobiology and Cosmology
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology ,Physics - Physics and Society - Abstract
An interesting consequence of the modern cosmological paradigm is the spatial infinity of the universe. When coupled with naturalistic understanding of the origin of life and intelligence, which follows the basic tenets of astrobiology, and with some fairly incontroversial assumptions in the theory of observation selection effects, this infinity leads, as Ken Olum has recently shown, to a paradoxical conclusion. Olum's paradox is related, to the famous Fermi's paradox in astrobiology and SETI studies. We, hereby, present an evolutionary argument countering the apparent inconsistency, and show how, in the framework of a simplified model, deeper picture of the coupling between histories of intelligent/technological civilizations and astrophysical evolution of the Galaxy, can be achieved. This strategy has consequences of importance for both astrobiological studies and philosophy., Comment: 14 pages, no figures
- Published
- 2005
36. The Anthropic Principle and the Duration of the Cosmological Past
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics ,Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics - Abstract
The place of an anthropic argument in the discrimination between various cosmological models is to be reconsidered following the classic criticisms of Paul C. W. Davies and Frank J. Tipler. Different versions of the anthropic argument against cosmologies involving an infinite series of past events are analyzed and applied to several instructive instances. This is not only of historical significance but presents an important topic for the future of cosmological research if some of the contemporary inflationary models, particularly Linde's chaotic inflation, turn out to be correct. Cognitive importance of the anthropic principle(s) to the issue of extraterrestrial intelligent observers is reconsidered in this light and several related problems facing cosmologies with past temporal infinities are also clearly defined. This issue is not only a clear example of the epistemological significance of the anthropic principle, but also has consequences for such diverse topics as SETI studies, epistemological status of cosmological concepts, theory of observation selection effects, and history of astronomy., Comment: 45 pages, 1 figure
- Published
- 2005
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Astroengineering, Dysonian SETI, and naturalism: A new Catch-22
- Author
-
Ćirković, Milan M.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Post-postbiological evolution?
- Author
-
Ćirković, Milan M.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Alternative explanations of the cosmic microwave background: A historical and an epistemological perspective
- Author
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Ćirković, Milan M. and Perović, Slobodan
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Is Quantum Suicide Painless? On an Apparent Violation of The Principal Principle
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Quantum Physics - Abstract
The experimental setup of the self-referential quantum measurement, jovially known as the "quantum suicide" or the "quantum Russian roulette" is analyzed from the point of view of the Principal Principle of David Lewis. It is shown that the apparent violation of this principle--relating objective probabilities and subjective chance--in this type of thought experiment is just an illusion due to the usage of some terms and concepts ill-defined in the quantum context. We conclude that even in the case that Everett's (or some other "no-collapse") theory is a correct description of reality, we can coherently believe in equating subjective credence with objective chance in quantum-mechanical experiments. This is in agreement with results of the research on personal identity in the quantum context by Parfit and Tappenden., Comment: 9 pages
- Published
- 2004
41. 'Permanence' - An Adaptationist Solution to Fermi's Paradox?
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics ,Physics - Physics and Society - Abstract
A new solution of Fermi's paradox sketched by SF writer Karl Schroeder in his 2002. novel "Permanence" is critically investigated. It is argued that this solution is tightly connected with adaptationism - a widely discussed working hypothesis in evolutionary biology. Schroeder's hypothesis has important ramifications for astrobiology, SETI projects, and future studies. Its weaknesses should be explored without succumbing to the emotional reactions often accompanying adaptationist explanations., Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures
- Published
- 2004
42. Three's a Crowd: On Causes, Entropy, and Physical Eschatology
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M. and Milosevic-Zdjelar, Vesna
- Subjects
Physics - Classical Physics ,Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics - Abstract
Recent discussions of the origins of the thermodynamical asymmetry ("the arrow of time") by Huw Price and others are critically assessed. This serves as a motivation for consideration of relationship between thermodynamical and cosmological causes. Although the project of clarification of the thermodynamical explanandum is certainly welcome, Price excludes another interesting option, at least as viable as the sort of Acausal-Particular approach he favors, and arguably more in the spirit of Boltzmann himself. Thus, the competition of explanatory projects includes three horses, not two. In addition, it is the Acausal-Particular approach that could benefit enormously from dissociation from fanciful ideas of low-entropy future boundary conditions entertained by Price. Novel revolutionary developments in observational cosmology, as well as in the nascent astrophysical discipline of physical eschatology, have obliterated such hypotheses. Also, the Acausal-Anthropic approach we propose, offers another clear instance of disteleological nature of the anthropic principle., Comment: 23 pages, no figures
- Published
- 2004
43. Cosmic Irony: SETI Optimism from Catastrophes?
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics - Abstract
Classical arguments for skepticism regarding the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) are critically examined. It is suggested that the emerging class of "phase transition" astrobiological models can simultaneously account for all available astrophysical and biological evidence, explain several unresolved puzzle in Earth sciences, and rationally justify current and future SETI projects. In particular, the hypothesis of Annis that local gamma-ray bursts drive the astrobiological phase transition deserves to be further quantitatively elucidated. Some epistemological and ethical ramifications of such a model are briefly discussed., Comment: 8 pages, no figures
- Published
- 2003
44. A Comment on Tectonics and the Future of Life on Terrestrial Planets
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics - Abstract
It is argued that the tight interconnection between biological, climatological, and geophysical factors in the history of the terrestrial biosphere can teach us something of wider importance regarding the general astrobiological evolution of planets in the Galactic habitable zone of the Milky Way. Motivated by a recent debate on the future of Earth's biosphere, we suggest an additional reason why the impact of plate tectonics on the biological evolution is significant on the global Galactic level., Comment: 5 pages, no figures; Precambrian Research, submitted
- Published
- 2003
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. Geo-engineering Gone Awry: A New Partial Solution of Fermi's Paradox
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M. and Cathcart, Richard
- Subjects
Physics - Geophysics ,Physics - Physics and Society - Abstract
Another partial solution of Fermi's famous paradox is proposed, based on our increased understanding of geophysics, geo-engineering and climatology. It has been claimed in the recent astrobiological literature (for instance, in the recent controversial "rare Earth" theory of Ward and Brownlee), that geological activity of a terrestrial planet is an important precondition for the emergence of complex metazoan life forms. Technological civilizations arising on such planets will be, at some point of their histories or another, tempted to embark upon massive geo-engineering projects. If, for some reasons only very recently understood, large-scale geo-engineering is in fact much more dangerous than previously thought, the scenario in which at least some of the extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way self-destruct in this manner gains plausibility. In addition, we speculate on possible reasons, both physical and culturological, which could make such a threat even more pertinent on an average Galactic terrestrial planet than on Earth., Comment: 14 pages, no figures
- Published
- 2003
46. Ancient Origins of a Modern Anthropic Cosmological Argument
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics ,General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology ,Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics - Abstract
Ancient origins of a modern anthropic argument against cosmologies involving infinite series of past events are considered. It is shown that this argument - which in modern times has been put forward by distinguished cosmologists like Paul C. W. Davies and Frank J. Tipler - originates in pre-Socratic times and is implicitly present in the cyclical cosmology of Empedocles. There are traces of the same line of reasoning throughout the ancient history of ideas, and the case of a provocative statement of Thucydides is briefly analyzed. Moreover, the anthropic argument has been fully formulated in the epic of Lucretius, confirming it as the summit of ancient cosmology. This is not only of historical significance but presents an important topic for the philosophy of cosmology provided some of the contemporary inflationary models, particularly Linde's chaotic inflation, turn out to be correct., Comment: 11 pages, no figures; Astronomical and Astrophysical Transactions, accepted
- Published
- 2003
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. On the First Anthropic Argument in Astrobiology
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics ,Physics - Biological Physics ,Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics - Abstract
We consider the little-known anthropic argument of Fontenelle dealing with the nature of cometary orbits, given a year before the publication of Newton's Principia. This is particularly interesting in view of the rapid development of the recently resurgent theories of cometary catastrophism and their role in the modern astrobiological debates, for instance in the "rare Earth" hypothesis of Ward and Brownlee., Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, submitted to "Earth, Moon, and Planets"
- Published
- 2003
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. The Temporal Aspect of the Drake Equation and SETI
- Author
-
Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Astrophysics - Abstract
We critically investigate some evolutionary aspects of the famous Drake equation, which is usually presented as the central guide for the research on extraterrestrial intelligence. It is shown that the Drake equation tacitly relies on unverifiable and possibly false assumptions on both the physico-chemical history of our Galaxy and the properties of advanced intelligent communities. The importance of recent results of Lineweaver on chemical build-up of inhabitable planets for SETI is emphasized. Two important evolutionary effects are briefly discussed and the resolution of the difficulties within the context of the phase-transition astrobiological models sketched., Comment: 8 pages, plain Latex
- Published
- 2003
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Quantum Parallelism in Quantum Information Processing
- Author
-
Dugic, Miroljub and Cirkovic, Milan M.
- Subjects
Quantum Physics - Abstract
We investigate distinguishability (measured by fidelity) of the initial and the final state of a qubit, which is an object of the so-called nonideal quantum measurement of the first kind. We show that the fidelity of a nonideal measurement can be greater than the fidelity of the corresponding ideal measurement. This result is somewhat counterintuitive, and can be traced back to the quantum parallelism in quantum operations, in analogy with the quantum parallelism manifested in the quantum computing theory. In particular, while the quantum parallelism in quantum computing underlies efficient quantum algorithms, the quantum parallelism in quantum information theory underlies this, classically unexpected, increase of the fidelity., Comment: 13 pages, 1 color figure, uses tole2.sty, psfig.tex
- Published
- 2002
50. On a Possible Physical Metatheory of Consciousness
- Author
-
Dugic, Miroljub, Cirkovic, Milan M., and Rakovic, Dejan
- Subjects
Quantum Physics - Abstract
We show that the modern quantum mechanics, and particularly the theory of decoherence, allows formulating a sort of a physical metatheory of consciousness. Particularly, the analysis of the necessary conditions for the occurrence of decoherence, along with the hypothesis that consciousness bears (more-or-less) well definable physical origin, leads to a wider physical picture naturally involving consciousness. This can be considered as a sort of a psycho-physical parallelism, but on very wide scales bearing some cosmological relevance.
- Published
- 2002
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