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Introduction: COVID-19 caused high morbidity and mortality worldwide due to the lack of effective treatment and timely recognition of individuals with worse prognosis. Objective: To evaluate the capacity of the index to predict the risk of death in patients with covid-19, based on prognostic factors. Material and Methods: An analytical cohort study was carried out in patients with COVID-19 in the General Provincial Hospital "Carlos Manuel de Céspedes" of Bayamo municipality, Granma province, from January 1, 2020 to March 31, 2023. Results: Internal validity of the index was adequate with a sensitivity of 88.96%, specificity of 92.58% and a validity index of 91.22%. The discriminative capacity of the index (area under the ROC curve of 0.975) and the calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow: p= 0.383) were appropriate. Conclusions: The predictive capacity and calibration of the index were adequate, as well as the accuracy and reliability, so it can be used as a clinical surveillance tool.

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Objective: To evaluate the predictive ability of mortality prediction scales in cancer patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs)., Design: A systematic review of the literature was conducted using a search algorithm in October 2022. The following databases were searched: PubMed, Scopus, Virtual Health Library (BVS), and Medrxiv. The risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 scale., Setting: ICUs admitting cancer patients., Participants: Studies that included adult patients with an active cancer diagnosis who were admitted to the ICU., Interventions: Integrative study without interventions., Main Variables of Interest: Mortality prediction, standardized mortality, discrimination, and calibration., Results: Seven mortality risk prediction models were analyzed in cancer patients in the ICU. Most models (APACHE II, APACHE IV, SOFA, SAPS-II, SAPS-III, and MPM II) underestimated mortality, while the ICMM overestimated it. The APACHE II had the SMR (Standardized Mortality Ratio) value closest to 1, suggesting a better prognostic ability compared to the other models., Conclusions: Predicting mortality in ICU cancer patients remains an intricate challenge due to the lack of a definitive superior model and the inherent limitations of available prediction tools. For evidence-based informed clinical decision-making, it is crucial to consider the healthcare team's familiarity with each tool and its inherent limitations. Developing novel instruments or conducting large-scale validation studies is essential to enhance prediction accuracy and optimize patient care in this population., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.)

Sobre el índice pronóstico de morbimortalidad por enfermedad cardiovascular asociada con factores de riesgo aterogénico

About the prognostic index of morbidity and mortality due to cardiovascular disease associated with atherogenic risk factors

Los modelos estadísticos de clasificación se emplean cotidianamente en salud como sistemas de evaluación que permiten construir grupos homogéneos en la ayuda de pronósticos, diagnósticos, elección de terapias y cuantas situaciones requieran la discretización como herramienta para la toma de decisiones más acertadas. Su utilidad no solo se evidencia en el ámbito médico sino que muchos de ellos ayudan a mejorar actuaciones y políticas en el sector de la salud pública. Como parte de las tecnologías sanitarias, requieren de una evaluación continua en los diferentes escenarios donde se ejecuten. Por otra parte, emplearlos de manera mecánica, sin una mentalidad crítica, puede traer más riesgos que beneficios, por lo que su poder predictivo o explicativo no justifica que sus resultados se empleen de manera incuestionada.

Introduction: Various biomarkers based on blood counts have been useful for the prognosis of patients critically ill with COVID-19., Objective: To describe the usefulness of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR) and lymphocyte-to-platelet (LPR) ratios for the prognosis of mortality and ventilatory support requirement for COVID-19., Method: Retrospective cohort of clinical records of patients with COVID-19 who required hospital care., Results: One-hundred and -twenty-five cases were analyzed; mean age was 51 years, and 60 % were of the male gender; 21.6 % had type 2 diabetes mellitus, and 18.4 % had hypertension. Mean leukocyte count was 9.5 x 10 3 /µL, with a neutrophil mean of 8.0 x 10 3 /µL. Mean NLR was 12.01, while for MLR it was 0.442, and for LPR, 373.07. Regarding the area under the curve, the following values were recorded for mortality: 0.594 for NLR, 0.628 for MLR and 0.505 for LPR; as for mechanical ventilation, the values were 0.581 for NLR, 0.619 for MLR and 0.547 for LPR. In the univariate analysis, an NLR value > 13 (OR: 2.750, p = 0.001) and an MLR of > 0.5 (OR: 2.069, p = 0.047) were associated with mortality; LPR showed no impact on mortality or respiratory support., Conclusion: NLR and MLR are useful for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19., (Copyright: © 2019 Permanyer.)

Introducción: la decisión de ingresar a un paciente con neumonía comunitaria se basa en el empleo de escalas pronósticas, como el índice de Fine y la escala CURB-65, pero no siempre se ajustan a un contexto geográfico en particular. Objetivo: crear y validar un índice basado en factores pronósticos que permita predecir el riesgo de morir en adultos mayores de 18 años con diagnóstico de neumonía adquirida en la comunidad (NAC). Métodos: se realizó la construcción y validación de un índice pronóstico de muerte por NAC, mediante un estudio de cohorte en pacientes que ingresaron en los Centros Médicos de Diagnóstico Integral "Gustavo Contreras" del estado Carabobo; los de "Ciudad Piar" y "Los Caribes," estado Bolívar; y "Dr. Julio Rodríguez"y "Fe y Alegría," estado Sucre; en Venezuela, desde el 1 de octubre de 2010 hasta el 30 de septiembre de 2011. Resultados: el factor pronóstico de mayor independencia fue el choque (OR 7,929; IC 2,899-21,682). Se obtuvo un índice con 2 variantes, una cuantitativa y otra ordinal con 3 categorías de riesgo. La capacidad de discriminación (área bajo la curva ROC de 0,910) y de calibración del índice (0,585) fueron adecuadas. Se determinó la validez de construcción, de criterio y confiabilidad y la consistencia interna de la escala. Conclusión: se creó y validó un índice pronóstico, para la neumonía adquirida en la comunidad, con alta sensibilidad y elevado valor predictivo negativo, por lo que su introducción en la práctica clínica, mejorará la evaluación de estos enfermos.

Objective: To determine the usefulness of the determination of base excess in a cohort of elderly patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with a diagnosis of chest trauma., Material and Method: Two hundred and forty-nine patients were included aged 65 years and over with a diagnosis of thoracic trauma who required admission to the ICU. We made a statistical analysis in order to determine the association of the first base excess levels with mortality during the unit stay., Results: Two hundred and forty-nine patients, with a mean APACHE II score of 16.21±7.87 and 24.45±14.16 ISS. Mean ICU stay was 12.74±16.85 days and the mean hospital stay was 26.55±30.1 days. Statistical analysis showed an association with mortality in patients whose blood pressure was lower than 110mmHg on admission, with an OR=4.11 (95% CI 1.91 to 8.85) compared to patients with blood pressure between 110 and 140mmHg. Those patients who had base excess levels on admission of less than -6mmol/L also showed increased mortality compared to patients with higher levels, with an OR=3.12 (95% CI 1.51 to 6.42)., Conclusions: The presence of a base excess level of less than -6 is associated with increased mortality in elderly patients with initial blood pressure between 110 and 140mmHg, diagnosed with thoracic trauma and who require admission to ICU. Routine measurement of this parameter in this population may show the clinical usefulness of assessing possible hidden hypoperfusion., (Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients., Patients and Methods: Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years., Results: We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively., Conclusions: The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)