1. Locked into Copenhagen pledges -- Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
- Author
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, Edenhofer, Ottmar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, and Edenhofer, Ottmar
- Abstract
International audience, This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.