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Language is critical to the effectiveness of marketing messages. Achieving a desired outcome requires arranging words to formulate a message (i.e., syntax), but this task is not trivial. The authors study the role of syntax in marketing communications by focusing on syntactic surprise (i.e., how unexpected the syntax of a message is). They introduce a measure that captures syntactic surprise, establishes its internal and external validity, and tests its effectiveness for marketing messages. In a series of studies that include field data and randomized field experiments from contexts such as donations, advertising, and product reviews, the authors show that a message's syntactic surprise is related to its effectiveness. This relationship follows an inverted U-shape, such that medium-syntactic-surprise messages are the most effective. The authors then conduct experiments on Facebook and Instagram to demonstrate how these findings can be used to write effective marketing messages. In collaboration with two independent companies, they show that ads for products, services, or jobs that are written with medium syntactic surprise result in higher click-through rates than ads written with low or high syntactic surprise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frontal eye field (FEF) plays a well-established role in the control of visual attention. The strength of an FEF neuron’s response to a visual stimulus presented in its receptive field is enhanced if the stimulus captures spatial attention by virtue of its salience. A stimulus can be rendered salient by cognitive factors as well as by physical attributes. These include surprise. The aim of the present experiment was to determine whether surprise-induced salience would result in enhanced visual-response strength in the FEF. Toward this end, we monitored neuronal activity in two male monkeys while presenting first a visual cue predicting with high probability that the reward delivered at the end of the trial would be good or bad (large or small) and then a visual cue announcing the size of the impending reward with certainty. The second cue usually confirmed but occasionally violated the expectation set up by the first cue. Neurons responded more strongly to the second cue when it violated than when it confirmed expectation. The increase in the firing rate was accompanied by a decrease in spike-count correlation as expected from capture of attention. Although both good surprise and bad surprise induced enhanced firing, the effects appeared to arise from distinct mechanisms as indicated by the fact that the bad-surprise signal appeared at a longer latency than the good-surprise signal and by the fact that the strength of the two signals varied independently across neurons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The goal of this study is to describe characteristics of cataract surgery patients who previously underwent laser in situ keratomileusis/photorefractive keratectomy (LASIK/PRK) in comparison to non-LASIK/PRK cataract surgery patients including psychiatric comorbidities, as well as describe refractive prediction error after cataract surgery while accounting for axial length (AL) using the Barrett True-K and Barrett Universal II formulas. Methods: This was a retrospective study of patients from the University of Colorado Cataract Outcomes Registry. The primary outcomes were refraction prediction error (RPE), mean absolute RPE, and median absolute RPE. Outcomes were stratified by five axial length groups. Univariate and multivariate models for RPE were stratified by the AL group. Results: Two hundred eighty-one eyes with prior LASIK/PRK and 3101 eyes without are included in the study. Patients with prior LASIK/PRK were significantly younger: 67.0 vs 69.9 years, p < 0.0001. The LASIK/PRK group had significantly better mean pre-operative BCVA in comparison to the non-LASIK group, logMAR 0.204 vs logMAR 0.288, p = 0.003. The LASIK/PRK group had significantly lower rates of cardiovascular disease (18.5% vs 29.3%, p < 0.001), hypertension (49.1% vs 59.3%, p < 0.012), and type 2 diabetes (10.7% vs 26.0%, p < 0.001), and no significant difference in psychiatric disease. The absolute RPE was higher for the LASIK group for all ALs, but only significantly higher for eyes with AL less than 25 mm. Conclusion: Patient eyes with prior LASIK/PRK surgery undergoing cataract surgery were significantly younger, had significantly less comorbidities, and a significantly better pre-operative BCVA. Using the Barrett formulas, absolute prediction error for eyes with longer ALs was not significantly worse for LASIK/PRK eyes than those without and the difference was smaller for eyes with longer AL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research Summary: While previous organizational impression management (OIM) research focuses on highlighting firms in a favorable light, we explore CEOs' use of "strategic negativity" to manage expectations. We draw on OIM's psychological roots to predict that despite pressure to "be positive," when CEOs perceive stakeholders are motivated to raise their expectations and have an opportunity to do so, CEOs strategically use negativity to counteract this anticipated expectation increase. We test our predictions on 7330 quarterly earnings calls from 370 publicly traded firms (2008–2019), examining how the "motive" of a positive material earnings surprise and "opportunity" of a new fiscal year jointly increase CEO negativity in prepared remarks. We elaborate the wide applicability of strategic negativity, the "other side" of the OIM phenomenon. Managerial Summary: In contrast to the prevailing view that CEOs usually "positively spin" the firm's situation to stakeholders, we investigate how CEOs strategically use negativity to counteract stakeholder optimism, provided CEOs perceive expectations are likely to rocket upward. We argue that positive news represents a "motive" and a chance to reflect represents an "opportunity," and that together they risk raising expectations. Analyzing 7330 quarterly earnings calls of 370 companies (2008–2019), we specifically examined how both (1) a positive earnings surprise and (2) a new fiscal year force CEOs out of their positivity comfort zone and encourage them to be strategically negative in earnings call remarks, to try to lower stakeholder expectations. Our results support this view and pave the way for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore if sleep deprivation affects how investors react to relevant news. Using the transition to Daylight Saving Time (DST) in spring as a disruption to sleeping patterns, we show that investors underreact to a firm's earnings surprise in the days after the transition to DST. Further, an earnings surprise in the days after the transition to DST is associated with a positive drift in the post-announcement period. Our findings are consistent with sleep-deprived investors mispricing and subsequently revisiting relevant information. Overall, our results highlight the importance of investors' cognitive ability for efficient market pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Active inference by the free energy principle, neglected by paleoanthropologists, led to behavioral evolution in early Homo. • Early Homo's hierarchically mechanistic mind was a biological inference machine with generative depth between apes' and ours. • Neurobiological aspects are outlined that likely were involved in the cerebral evolution of generative depth in Homo. • Tight bounding of cognitive surprise made early Homo unresponsive to unorthodox or novel behavior and unlikely to copy it. • Handaxes likely resulted often from novel manual behavior enacted spontaneously by early Homo for over a million years. A paradigmatic account may suffice to explain behavioral evolution in early Homo. We propose a parsimonious account that (1) could explain a particular, frequently-encountered, archeological outcome of behavior in early Homo — namely, the fashioning of a Paleolithic stone 'handaxe' — from a biological theoretic perspective informed by the free energy principle (FEP); and that (2) regards instances of the outcome as postdictive or retrodictive, circumstantial corroboration. Our proposal considers humankind evolving as a self-organizing biological ecosystem at a geological time-scale. We offer a narrative treatment of this self-organization in terms of the FEP. Specifically, we indicate how 'cognitive surprises' could underwrite an evolving propensity in early Homo to express sporadic unorthodox or anomalous behavior. This co-evolutionary propensity has left us a legacy of Paleolithic artifacts that is reminiscent of a ' snakes and ladders' board game of appearances, disappearances, and reappearances of particular archeological traces of Paleolithic behavior. When detected in the Early and Middle Pleistocene record, anthropologists and archeologists often imagine evidence of unusual or novel behavior in terms of early humankind ascending the rungs of a figurative phylogenetic 'ladder' — as if these corresponded to progressive evolution of cognitive abilities that enabled incremental achievements of increasingly innovative technical prowess, culminating in the cognitive ascendancy of Homo sapiens. The conjecture overlooks a plausible likelihood that behavior by an individual who was atypical among her conspecifics could have been disregarded in a community of Hominina (for definition see Appendix 1) that failed to recognize, imagine, or articulate potential advantages of adopting hitherto unorthodox behavior. Such failure, as well as diverse fortuitous demographic accidents, would cause exceptional personal behavior to be ignored and hence unremembered. It could disappear by a pitfall, down a 'snake', as it were, in the figurative evolutionary board game; thereby causing a discontinuity in the evolution of human behavior that presents like an evolutionary puzzle. The puzzle discomforts some paleoanthropologists trained in the natural and life sciences. They often dismiss it, explaining it away with such self-justifying conjectures as that, maybe, separate paleospecies of Homo differentially possessed different cognitive abilities, which, supposedly, could account for the presence or absence in the Pleistocene archeological record of traces of this or that behavioral outcome or skill. We argue that an alternative perspective — that inherits from the FEP and an individual's 'active inference' about its surroundings and of its own responses — affords a prosaic, deflationary, and parsimonious way to account for appearances, disappearances, and reappearances of particular behavioral outcomes and skills of early humankind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Jahrbuch der Psychoanalys Psychosozial-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG (Psychosozial-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG) is the property of Psychosozial-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Jahrbuch der Psychoanalys Psychosozial-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG (Psychosozial-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG) is the property of Psychosozial-Verlag GmbH & Co. KG and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Key Clinical Message: If an intraocular lens (IOL) is incorrectly labeled, problems can arise for surgeons and patients. Precise biometry is important to accurately determine the IOL power and prevent the implantation of the wrong IOL. Labeling and verifying IOLs with accuracy is crucial to ensuring the best possible results of cataract surgery. Mislabeling of IOLs can cause unpredictable problems for surgeons. However, we can prevent incorrect IOLs by using precise biometry to determine accurate IOL power and safely implant the correct IOL. A 50‐year‐old female with no medical or ocular history came to our clinic complaining of decreased vision in both eyes that had been ongoing for several months. After being diagnosed with cataracts, primary angle closure suspect, and high hyperopia, the patient underwent phacoemulsification surgery. A posterior chamber IOL was implanted, and visco‐goniosynechialysis was performed. During follow‐up appointments, it was discovered that the patient had an uncorrected visual acuity of 20/50 in her right eye, which was corrected to 20/20 with a + 7.00 D lens. Upon further evaluation, it was determined that the source of the error was due to a manufacturing mislabeling of the IOL power. The patient then underwent successful IOL exchange surgery, and her best‐corrected visual acuity became 20/20 with no significant refraction. This case highlights an uncommon source of refractive surprise after phacoemulsification surgery, successfully managed with IOL exchange surgery using the same IOL power from a different brand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Philosophers and psychologists sometimes categorize emotions like surprise and curiosity as specifically epistemic. Is there some reasonably unified and interesting class of emotions here? If so, what unifies it? This paper proposes and defends an evaluative account of epistemic emotions: What it is to be an epistemic emotion is to have fittingness conditions that distinctively involve some epistemic evaluation. We argue that this view has significant advantages over alternative proposals and is a promising way to identify a limited and interesting class of emotions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Postoperative refractive surprises may manifest following cataract surgery. A residual refraction difference of > 2.0 D after cataract surgery was considered a refractive surprise. Treating refractive error after cataract surgery includes non-surgical and surgical options. The objective is to report clinical outcomes of intraocular lens (IOL) exchange with ciliary sulcus placement technique to manage refractive surprise. Case Presentation: A female patient aged 70 years reported experiencing blurred vision in her right eye (RE) for the past two years. History of RE cataract surgery ten years ago, however, she only had control 1-2 times after surgery. After that, the patient underwent cataract surgery on the left eye (LE), and then she complained that her RE was getting blurry. Her RE's visual acuity (VA) was 1/60 with best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) S-8.00 C-1.00 X100° to 6/10, and her LE was 7/10 with BCVA C-0.75 X60° to 10/10. The anterior segment examination of the RE was a 3-piece sulcus intraocular lens with complete continuous curvilinear capsulorhexis (CCC) intact anterior capsule, posterior capsule rupture, and the LE was in the bag IOL. Ultrasound examination of the RE revealed posterior staphyloma. She was diagnosed with OD refractive surprise, pseudophakia, posterior staphyloma, and OS pseudophakia. She underwent IOL exchange surgery on her RE. Post-operatively, the visual acuity of the RE was 7/45 using the Snellen chart. Three months post-op, the BCVA of RE was 10/10. Conclusions: In well-prepared cataract surgery, unexpected refractive outcomes such as a refractive surprise can be prevented. IOL exchange with ciliary sulcus placement technique is a treatment option for refractive surprise associated with posterior capsule rupture, and it has a good outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does good news cover bad news? We present evidence from the Chinese stock market, in which the fiscal year is always the same as the calendar year. Listed firms are required to announce their annual report by the end of April, coinciding with the deadline for the release of their first‐quarter reports. We find that firms with negative earnings surprises in the previous year are more likely to postpone the announcement of their annual report until they announce their first‐quarter report. However, we find no evidence to suggest that this bundling disclosure weakens market responses to information in annual reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mysterious consumption items represent products that are chosen or purchased without knowing the exact nature of the product(s). In contrast to the widely accepted notion of uncertainty aversion, the present research shows that consumers prefer uncertainty over certainty in the context of mysterious consumption. Across a variety of products (stress balls, ice cream, songs, teas, snacks, hotel rooms, masks, rental cars), participants preferred mysterious consumption items over non-mysterious consumption items of equal expected value. The value of mysterious consumption lies at least in part in the uncertainty about the nature of the outcome among objectively similar outcomes. Specifically, the uncertainty around horizontally differentiated outcomes (i.e. outcomes that differ as a matter of taste) in the case of mysterious consumption focuses consumers on the positive side of uncertainty: the opportunity to be surprised. The preference for uncertainty is not observed when the possible outcomes are vertically differentiated (i.e. outcomes that differ in objective superiority, as is the case in existing demonstrations of uncertainty) or when horizontal uncertainty is reduced to a degree that diminishes the ability to be surprised. The findings reconcile literatures on surprise and uncertainty aversion and help explain mysterious consumption as a substantive phenomenon in the marketplace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors quantify the relative importance of beliefs-based suspense and surprise measures in the entertainment preferences of viewers of Twitch, the largest online video game streaming platform. Using detailed viewership and game statistics data from broadcasts of tournaments of a popular video game, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, the authors compute measures of suspense and surprise for a rational viewer. They then develop and estimate a stylized utility model that underlies viewers' decisions to both join and leave a game stream. The method used enables the authors to causally identify the direct effect of suspense and surprise on viewers' utilities, separating it from other sources of entertainment value (e.g., team skill) and from indirect/supply-side effects (e.g., word of mouth, advertising). The authors show that suspense enters a viewer's utility but find little evidence of the effect of surprise. The magnitudes imply that a one-standard-deviation increase in round-level suspense decreases the probability of leaving a stream by.27 percentage points. The authors find no detectable effect of suspense and surprise on the decision to join a stream, ruling out indirect effects. Variation in suspense levels explains 9.2% of the observed range of the evolution of a stream's viewership. The authors use these estimates to evaluate counterfactual game and platform designs. They show that historical updates to Counter-Strike: Global Offensive game rules have increased tournament viewership by 4.1%, that rules can be further modified to increase viewership, and that alternative platform designs that inform joining users of games' scores will additionally increase overall viewership by 1.3%. Together, these results illustrate the value of the authors' method as a general tool that content producers and platforms can use to evaluate and design media products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research indicated a need to improve pilot training with regard to understanding of autopilot logic and behavior, especially in non-routine situations. Therefore, we tested the effect of problem-based exploratory training on pilots' understanding of autopilot functions. Using a moving-base flight simulator, general aviation pilots (n = 45) were trained to diagnose failures either without foreknowledge and guidance (exploratory group), without foreknowledge but with some guidance (exploratory-guidance group) or with foreknowledge and full guidance (control group). They subsequently performed six test scenarios in which their understanding of the effects of failures was tested by requiring them to deduce the failures and select autopilot modes that were still functioning. Those who received exploratory training with guidance were significantly more likely than the other groups to diagnose failures correctly. The exploratory training group also selected the most appropriate functioning autopilot modes significantly faster than the control group. The results suggest that exploratory training with an appropriate level of guidance is useful for gaining a practical understanding of autopilot logic and behavior. Exploratory training may help to improve transfer of training to operational practice, and prevent automation surprises and accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we address the issue concerning the gestural patterns in expressing surprise and disapproval across various languages and cultures. The results obtained so far point to an interesting, and in a sense rather surprising, uniformity. We consider two types of special questions: counter-expectational questions expressing surprise and surprise-disapproval questions, i.e., sentences expressing surprise with a negative orientation, and adopt an experimental design involving sentence repetition and spontaneous production. We focus on the realization of these sentences in Vietnamese, Korean and Japanese, which we compare with the results previously obtained for Italian and replicated for Neapolitan, Spanish and German. Our research is based on the Minimalist theoretical framework developed by Chomsky and scholars in the tradition of generative grammar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generally, beauty has been regarded as an outward expression of elegance and harmony, providing visual pleasure and evoking a sense of aesthetic enjoyment. However, in recent years, a phenomenon called "ugly-cute" has emerged, challenging the conventional standards of beauty by embracing a form of "ugliness" to enhance its appeal. The reasons and mechanisms behind this phenomenon remain largely unexplored so far. This study aims to investigate the role of emotions, such as pleasure, humor, and surprise, in the relationship between ugly-cute characteristics and attractiveness. The findings reveal that general beauty directly generates attractiveness by eliciting pleasurable emotions, whereas ugly-cute memes achieve attractiveness by inducing pleasurable emotions through the mediation of humor. Furthermore, while both "ugly" and "ugly-cute" memes evoke a sense of surprise, that elicited by ugly-cute memes is accompanied by a humorous response, thereby enhancing their attractiveness, whereas the "ugly" memes fail to evoke humor and lack attractiveness. Finally, we discuss the potential implications and practical value of the current research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we aimed to demonstrate how incidental surprise impacts individuals' risk-taking behavior. Previous empirical studies have shown that incidental surprise can influence risk-taking behavior, but the psychological mechanisms behind this phenomenon have not been explored. Based on the appraisal tendency framework, we propose that surprise affects individuals' risk-taking behavior by influencing their level of pleasantness and risk perception. To test our hypothesis, we conducted a study with 79 participants, comparing their pleasantness, risk perception, and risk-taking behavior under different emotions. Our findings strongly indicate that pleasantness and risk perception jointly contributed to a chain mediation effect when positive (negative) surprise prompted participants to become more (less) willing to take risks. Additionally, we also discovered that the effect of negative surprise on risk-taking behavior was moderated by individuals' risk attitudes. Risk-seeking individuals were less affected by negative surprise than risk-averse ones. Overall, this study sheds light on the psychological mechanisms underlying the impact of incidental surprise on individuals' risk-taking behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wounds teach us what we were vulnerable to and what vulnerabilities we may yet bear. But wounds are often met with doubt and disbelief, suggesting that their lessons may be hard to learn. Through an analysis of advocacy movements to believe victims of sexual assault set in conversation with Caravaggio's Incredulity of Thomas, this paper argues for an understanding of vulnerability as part of a process of learning from wounds that is sometimes marked by emotional incredulity, an expression of doubt or denial of what one knows to be true because of the way its realization feels. Emotional incredulity in these circumstances is not a denial of vulnerability that pretends to mastery, but one that expresses the challenge of learning, together, how much we do not know of ourselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While certain musical genres and songs are widely popular, there is still large variability in the music that individuals find rewarding or emotional, even among those with a similar musical enculturation. Interestingly, there is one Western genre that is intended to attract minimal attention and evoke a mild emotional response: elevator music. In a series of behavioral experiments, we show that elevator music consistently elicits low pleasure and surprise. Participants reported elevator music as being less pleasurable than music from popular genres, even when participants did not regularly listen to the comparison genre. Participants reported elevator music to be familiar even when they had not explicitly heard the presented song before. Computational and behavioral measures of surprisal showed that elevator music was less surprising, and thus more predictable, than other well‐known genres. Elevator music covers of popular songs were rated as less pleasurable, surprising, and arousing than their original counterparts. Finally, we used elevator music as a control for self‐selected rewarding songs in a proof‐of‐concept physiological (electrodermal activity and piloerection) experiment. Our results suggest that elevator music elicits low emotional responses consistently across Western music listeners, making it a unique control stimulus for studying musical novelty, pleasure, and surprise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide evidence from the first short-window event study of consumers' perceptual responses to earnings announcements using daily consumer perception data. We document a positive association between the change in consumers' overall perceptions of a brand at the time of the earnings announcement and the earnings surprise—that is, a positive consumer earnings response coefficient (CERC). CERC is larger when there is greater traditional news or social media activity, indicating that news dissemination is an important channel for consumers to respond to earnings news. Moreover, CERC varies based on brand and consumer characteristics. Changes in consumer perceptions at the time of the earnings announcement are positively associated with changes in purchase consideration and intent and with changes in realized future sales growth. To maximize identification, we document a positive and statistically significant CERC in a controlled experiment. Our findings demonstrate the importance of earnings to an important stakeholder. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: M31; M41; G14. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The logic of deterrence as one of the solutions and control systems to prevent war has been challenged by the proliferation of tactical nuclear weapons. On the other hand, coercion means trying to influence another's behavior by using force or threat of force. The question that arises is whether tactical nuclear weapons as a means of strategic coercion have brought the international system into the era of nuclear coercion? The main goal of this research is to achieve a theoretical model in the form of a theoretical model in order to analyze the variables and finally understand the important role of tactical nuclear weapons in contemporary international politics. The research method is descriptive and analytical and corresponds to two steps; In the first step, an attempt is made to examine a theoretical model called the state of structural complexity, which is considered a kind of theoretical arrangement by the author, in order to study the cross-sectional state of the international order (after the Cold War until now) and in the second step related to analysis, relationship and correlation between variables should be examined. According to the research hypothesis, statistics and current trends, it can be claimed that tactical nuclear weapons in the conditions of structural complexity and increased probability of strategic surprise among governments as an efficient tool for applying coercion without possibility they are considered mutual assured destruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we introduce a formalism to highlight the role of decision‐making implicit in the setup of early warning systems (EWSs) and its consequences with respect to loss avoidance for end users. The formalism, a close relative of the cost/loss approach, combines EWS verification scores with traditional expressions of risk from the point of view of the user. This formalism articulates in mathematical format many well‐known issues surrounding EWS usage, offering a conceptual anchor for concepts that otherwise may seem to wobble among the multidisciplinary perspectives participating in the EWS chain. This decision model is visually represented in a variation of the popular "performance diagram" used in forecast and warning verification. Our diagram adds to this the perspective of a generic user, in an effort to gain insight into how choices made regarding EWS settings may determine which users benefit from warnings and which do not. Although these results are based on a conceptual model, they are useful to better understand the actual benefits experienced by users and to highlight aspects that may temper unrealistic expectations on EWSs. The recent United Nations initiative to extend EWSs for natural hazards to all nations within 5 years will make EWSs more common and more public. The approach proposed here can be a tool to promote greater transparency and improve the necessary dialog between warning issuers and users in order to reduce loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While Germany's response to the Russo-Ukrainian war continues to be intensely scrutinised, with much attention focusing on the Zeitenwende debate and Berlin's reluctance to pull its weight in NATO, we know little about how Germany anticipated the outbreak of war. The picture that has emerged is one of significant surprise among German policymakers when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Germany's foreign intelligence service (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) has been criticised for failing to issue strong warnings, whereas BND officials have argued that their warnings went unheeded. This article contributes to discussions of what intelligence producers and policymakers could have been expected to know by exploring how selected external experts in Germany warned about a Russian attack on Ukraine. By reconstructing open expert assessments of the emerging crisis between 1 November 2021 and 23 February 2022, this article finds that researchers in German think tanks and academia provided a steady flow of timely, accurate and convincing warnings. The findings suggest that external experts are especially well positioned to uncover structural vulnerabilities that threatening actors can exploit, discuss politically inconvenient trends, and offer actionable warnings. This adds to discussions of how external expertise can support intelligence production and crisis decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emotions shape tourists' perceptions, experiences, and attachment to a destination, impacting loyalty. However, limited research has delved into the intricate relationships among these constructs. Based on the M-R Framework (Mehrabian & Russell, 1974), the current study proposed and tested a destination loyalty model that examined tourists' emotional experiences and place identity. This study specifically aimed to explore the influences of love, joy, and positive surprise (as emotions experienced by tourists) on place identity and destination loyalty. Data obtained from 164 international tourists were utilized to examine the conceptual model by employing structural equation modeling. The study outcomes showed that joy and love significantly affected place identity and destination loyalty, and place identity significantly influenced destination loyalty. The study findings deliver important theoretical contributions for researchers by explaining the complex relationships among tourists' emotional experiences of, their sense of place identity, and loyalty toward a destination. From a practical perspective, the study's results entail various implications for destination policymakers and marketers. For example, exploring how tourists respond to their emotional experiences would assist destination marketers in the development of effective marketing strategies (e.g., segmentation and positioning) to foster loyalty among visitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supremacy in the electromagnetic spectrum provides additional options and increased flexibility in any competition, even other than military conflicts, in addition to greater control of the scale of escalation. It gives policy makers and military leaders the decision space to manage events in real time while denying equivalent decision space to adversaries. At the same time, supremacy in the electromagnetic spectrum requires the collection, analysis and validation of robust information in the following key areas: electromagnetic spectrum sensors, communications, data links, radars, jamming, directed energy and infrared systems, engineering data describing the performance, characteristics and signature information of associated equipment, weapons and platforms, combat support data and modelling and simulation support. The authors describe these topics through a detailed analysis of the importance and role of supremacy in the electromagnetic spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supremacy in the electromagnetic spectrum provides additional options and increased flexibility in any competition, even other than military conflicts, in addition to greater control of the scale of escalation. It gives policy makers and military leaders the decision space to manage events in real time while denying equivalent decision space to adversaries. At the same time, supremacy in the electromagnetic spectrum requires the collection, analysis and validation of robust information in the following key areas: electromagnetic spectrum sensors, communications, data links, radars, jamming, directed energy and infrared systems, engineering data describing the performance, characteristics and signature information of associated equipment, weapons and platforms, combat support data and modelling and simulation support. The authors describe these topics through a detailed analysis of the importance and role of supremacy in the electromagnetic spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This empirical study uncovers emotional sensemaking factors that cause changes in management perceptions about wicked strategic problems under dynamic complexity. These perception changes improve understanding of, and solutions to, the wicked problem. Design/methodology/approach: Senior managers from three large organizations in different sectors participated in gaming simulation workshops. The strategic issues at stake were intractable and divisive. Qualitative methods captured participants' perceptions of the problems and the dynamic complexity that they faced and how they changed. Findings: Flawed management perceptions were revised as sensemaking processes were catalyzed by emotions of shock/surprise that came from experiencing unexpected stakeholder conduct within a simulation. The plausibility of the conduct was strengthened because managers were role-playing stakeholders. The shock/surprise emotion uncoupled attachment to entrenched beliefs, leading to a willingness to revise the flawed perceptions. The changed perceptions created new insights for a solution to the wicked problem. Practical implications: Practical implications are how management practitioners can improve the tackling of wicked strategic problems through the use of shock and surprise in a gaming simulation. Originality/value: This research extends theory on the role of emotions in sensemaking under dynamic complexity. The authors uncover how a hierarchy of managers' emotions used in sensemaking explains the catalytic effect of the shock and surprise of unexpected stakeholder conduct on revisions to their perceptions of the outcomes of the dynamic complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since Putin's assumed search for surprises and unpredictability, no one in good faith can rule out the possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used in Ukraine. However the probability of such a scenario is quite low, as the impact to the war is irrelevant, except if there is a (improbable) side effect of such a use in the resolutions and perception about the fight of the Ukrainian public. What we have learnt up to now is that the societal resilience as well as the intangibles aspects of war are showing that Ukraine will not give up. In this situation, only accidents and miscalculations can happen, but such an event would be a rare one, with a very low probability. The current article explores both the threats, rhetoric and motivations for Russian nuclear saber rattling as well as the impact of an improbable nuclear attack. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key Clinical Message If an intraocular lens (IOL) is incorrectly labeled, problems can arise for surgeons and patients. Precise biometry is important to accurately determine the IOL power and prevent the implantation of the wrong IOL. Labeling and verifying IOLs with accuracy is crucial to ensuring the best possible results of cataract surgery. Abstract Mislabeling of IOLs can cause unpredictable problems for surgeons. However, we can prevent incorrect IOLs by using precise biometry to determine accurate IOL power and safely implant the correct IOL. A 50‐year‐old female with no medical or ocular history came to our clinic complaining of decreased vision in both eyes that had been ongoing for several months. After being diagnosed with cataracts, primary angle closure suspect, and high hyperopia, the patient underwent phacoemulsification surgery. A posterior chamber IOL was implanted, and visco‐goniosynechialysis was performed. During follow‐up appointments, it was discovered that the patient had an uncorrected visual acuity of 20/50 in her right eye, which was corrected to 20/20 with a + 7.00 D lens. Upon further evaluation, it was determined that the source of the error was due to a manufacturing mislabeling of the IOL power. The patient then underwent successful IOL exchange surgery, and her best‐corrected visual acuity became 20/20 with no significant refraction. This case highlights an uncommon source of refractive surprise after phacoemulsification surgery, successfully managed with IOL exchange surgery using the same IOL power from a different brand.

Abstract In the classical information theoretic framework, information “value” is proportional to how novel/surprising the information is. Recent work building on such notions claimed that false news spreads faster than truth online because false news is more novel and therefore surprising. However, another determinant of surprise, semantic meaning (e.g., information’s consistency or inconsistency with prior beliefs), should also influence value and sharing. Examining sharing behavior on Twitter, we observed separate relations of novelty and belief consistency with sharing. Though surprise could not be assessed in those studies, belief consistency should relate to less surprise, suggesting the relevance of semantic meaning beyond novelty. In two controlled experiments, belief-consistent (vs. belief-inconsistent) information was shared more despite consistent information being the least surprising. Manipulated novelty did not predict sharing or surprise. Thus, classical information theoretic predictions regarding perceived value and sharing would benefit from considering semantic meaning in contexts where people hold pre-existing beliefs.

Surprise can simultaneously represent bad or good, pleasant or unpleasant, with the same experiences since understanding how humans' physiological qualities link with their emotional or mental health is required. We conducted quantitative research to concisely correlate mental stress and emotional issues by measuring brain activity, breathing, and heart rate in real time while executing specialized audio-visual stimulation to elicit a surprise event. We evaluated the frequency and temporal domain characteristics to determine if physiological measurements matched biochemical metrics and subjective stress assessments during the elicit surprise condition experiment. We discovered that the brain is still preferable to most in recognizing a human's psychological changes over a short period of time. The temporal (T3) (r = 0.544, p = 0.005) and frontal (Fz) (r = 0.519, p = 0.008) regions were shown to correlate with salivary amylase activity. In comparison to other channels, there was a negative association between stress perception and the occipital site (O1, r = -0.618, p = 0.001). We also found that heart rate variability activity correlates with arousal perception. By looking at specific multimodal biosignals, it is possible to understand human psychological traits by recording specific physiological signals for daily mental health monitoring.

This article attempts to explain why governments are surprised when extreme weather, pandemics and migration crisis hit their own country despite their good knowledge of these global threats. With the help of the contingency concept, the article explores the reasons behind these surprises by introducing a new category of threats that complements the ones in the existing literature on surprise. It adds the concept of 'known--corporally unknown' threats to the list of known-unknowns, unknown-unknowns as a way to emphasize the difference between abstract knowledge of 'facts and figures' (of e.g., global warming) and the acquiring of knowledge through personal, bodily experience (tangere) (of flooding and draughts). The article demonstrates how Swedish decision-makers--despite their good scientific knowledge and warning signals from abroad--were surprised by the migration crisis of 2015 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 because they had not been in direct touch with massive flows of refugees or pandemics of that scale before. The article ends by discussing new ways of acquiring knowledge about global threats for a deeper, corporally anchored, preparedness for the surprises and contingencies to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous research has shown that experiencing motion stimuli negatively impacts cognitive performance. Objective: In the current study, we investigate whether this impact relates to Type-II spatial disorientation (SD), to motion stimulus magnitude, or to an interaction of these factors. Method: Stimuli for participants (n = 23) consisted of Earth-vertical yaw rotations on a rotating chair in a completely darkened room. In the surprise condition, the stimulus started with subthreshold acceleration, followed by suprathreshold deceleration to a non-zero velocity, inducing a sensation of rotation that is opposite to the actual rotation revealed when the lights were switched on. In the no-surprise condition, the same changes in velocity were used, but starting from (almost) zero velocity, which induced a sensation of rotation in the same direction as the actual rotation. Participants performed a self-paced arithmetic task and measurement of their cognitive performance started after the environment was revealed. Stimulus magnitude was operationalized through higher or lower peak suprathreshold deceleration. Results: The results revealed that counting speed decreased significantly when participants were surprised, constituting a large effect size. The proportion of counting errors likewise increased significantly when participants were surprised, but only in the high-magnitude condition. Application: The findings suggest that surprise caused by the recognition of SD has an involuntary disruptive effect on cognition, which may impact performance of piloting tasks. These results are relevant when modeling motion stimuli effects on performance, and when developing SD awareness training for pilots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of prosody in a little-studied type of non-canonical questions: syntactically and lexically canonical interrogative sentences that have been uttered by the speaker in order to express surprise. The study compares Estonian surprise questions with string-identical information-seeking questions elicited by means of context descriptions. The materials comprise 1,008 utterances by 21 speakers. It is concluded that the prosody of the examined utterances has three roles that are relevant to the expression of surprise by ordinary interrogative sentences. First, the enhanced prosodic realisation of the utterances as manifested in a longer duration, a wider pitch range, and a more frequent occurrence of upstepped pitch accents conveys emotional expressivity. Second, lower pitch along with the creaky voice quality signals that the utterances are not canonical questions, while the main prosodic correlate of information-seeking questions is high pitch. Phonological pitch accents and boundary tones, however, are not used to distinguish between surprise questions and information-seeking questions. Third, the nuclear accent placement signals an information structure that is associated with the expression of incongruity or counterexpectation: the focal accent can evoke an alternative (set) that arises from the speaker's expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This project investigates the intonation of canonical (information-seeking) and non-canonical wh-in-situ echo questions conveying repetition and surprise in Northern Peninsular Spanish. Data from 14 female participants were collected via a contextualised elicitation task. The following correlates were examined: (i) the melodic curve of the wh-in-situ question, (ii) the nuclear peak (in Hz), (iii) the wh-tonal range (i.e. the difference between the lowest nuclear Low and the highest boundary High), and (iv) the nuclear contour. Results show that all wh-in-situ questions investigated display similar melodic curves and nuclear contours, but canonical questions have significantly lower nuclear peaks and wh-tonal ranges than non-canonical questions. Echo-repetition and echo-surprise questions also differ in nuclear peak and wh-tonal range. We propose a tentative analysis, whereby canonical in-situ questions have a final H% boundary tone, in contrast to non-canonical questions, which have an extra-High (upstepped) final boundary tone (¡H%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2009, Colgan Air Flight 3407 had a fatal crash in New York due to an aircraft aerodynamic stall. Previous reports had placed the actions of the crew as the cause of the incident; however, this work provides a sociotechnical systems analysis of the events that led up to the fatal accident. An Accimap analysis provides a top‐down systemic analysis of Flight 3407, considering the high‐level governmental and regulatory agencies involvement. An online survey with 47 airline pilots provides a bottom‐up review of pilots' perceptions and decision‐making in response to aerodynamic stall events. Combining the two approaches generates a holistic approach to managing aerodynamic stall events. Analysis of Flight 3407 identified contributory factors within the higher regulatory and company levels. Furthermore, questions of appropriate training were raised by the pilots within the survey results regarding the immediate response to a stall event which commonly affords a startle and/or surprise response. The impact of "startle and surprise" on the pilots' response to this situation was identified as a key area to focus on, with design and training recommendations provided. We consider these within the context of recent training recommendations in the industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today's recommender systems are criticized for recommending items that are too obvious to arouse users' interests. Therefore, the research community has advocated some "beyond accuracy" evaluation metrics such as novelty, diversity, and serendipity with the hope of promoting information discovery and sustaining users' interests over a long period of time. While bringing in new perspectives, most of these evaluation metrics have not considered individual users' differences in their capacity to experience those "beyond accuracy" items. Open-minded users may embrace a wider range of recommendations than conservative users. In this article, we proposed to use curiosity traits to capture such individual users' differences. We developed a model to approximate an individual's curiosity distribution over different stimulus levels. We used an item's surprise level to estimate the stimulus level and whether such a level is in the range of the user's appetite for stimulus, called Comfort Zone. We then proposed a recommender system framework that considers both user preference and their Comfort Zone where the curiosity is maximally aroused. Our framework differs from a typical recommender system in that it leverages human's Comfort Zone for stimuli to promote engagement with the system. A series of evaluation experiments have been conducted to show that our framework is able to rank higher the items with not only high ratings but also high curiosity stimulation. The recommendation list generated by our algorithm has a higher potential of inspiring user curiosity compared to the state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The personalization factor for assessing the surprise stimulus levels further helps the recommender model achieve smaller (better) inter-user similarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a challenge to Basic Emotion theories, Ortony suggested in a recent article that the existence of affect-free surprise means that surprise is not necessarily valenced and therefore arguably not an emotion. In an article in response, Neta and Kim argued that surprise is always valenced and therefore is an emotion, with apparent cases of affect-free surprise actually being cases of the cognitive state of unexpectedness rather than surprise. We view Neta and Kim's position as resting on an idiosyncratic stipulation of word usage. We further suggest that rejecting affect-free surprise by appealing to examples of affect-laden surprise has no bearing on whether surprise is always valenced, and propose that when surprise appears to be affect-laden the locus of the experienced valence is a co-occurring emotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many firms employ marketing tactics, such as surprise boxes, buy-and-reveal deals, random price promotions, and teaser advertisements, in which some information is intentionally undisclosed. Research has examined some of these initiatives, using a broad but often disconnected set of terms, theories, and methods, which we examine and integrate in this conceptual review paper. To lend coherence to the literature and offer a unifying framework for informing marketing practice, we (1) conceptualize these tactics as part of a broader phenomenon referred to as "uncertainty marketing" and define its boundaries, (2) propose and demonstrate that the range of uncertainty marketing tactics can be classified across three types (assortment, promotional, and innovation tactics) and along two core dimensions (stakes and opacity), and (3) examine how firms can obtain a favorable consumer response, thereby deriving testable propositions about consumers' baseline interest in uncertainty marketing tactics and the factors that can affect this interest. We then discuss the implications of applying this framework in practice and close by offering a prioritized agenda for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]