Search

Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost‐effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of the future in terms of population growth, economic development, and changes to life expectancy, this article uses risk acceptance criteria that are based on socioeconomic considerations to highlight the need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the optimum implied cost of averting a fatality derived based on the life quality index concept and the value of a quality‐adjusted life year derived based on the time principle of acceptable life risk are assessed in three different climate change scenarios for Sweden. Additionally, an illustrative example that assesses the acceptable probability of failure of a steel rod under axial tension in the different climate change scenarios is presented. It is shown that risk acceptance criteria can vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios (e.g., more than 190% variation in the acceptable probability of failure for Sweden in the considered example). This article demonstrates that the ability of societies to afford risk‐reducing measures may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Hence, it can be concluded that (1) in the context of climate change risk assessments, risk acceptance criteria need to be developed to account for the different climate change scenarios, and (2) these criteria may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Finally, relevant challenges and research needs are also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat waves are natural disasters that can result in large numbers of casualties. The frequency and damage caused by heat waves have been increasing in Korea due to climate change. The regional impacts of heat waves can vary according to environmental and socioeconomic factors regardless of duration and intensity. This study assessed the risks posed by heat waves for administrative districts in Korea according to climate change scenarios and the risk assessment framework of Fifth Assessment Report presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risk of heat waves is usually based on a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Unlike previous studies using subjective weights, this study employed partial least squares—structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and entropy weighting, which are more objective methods of determining the indicators and weights, to estimate the exposure and vulnerability of heat waves. The results showed that at least 40% and 46% of administrative districts are expected to experience a high level of risk according to the representative concentration pathway scenarios, i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. In addition, significant differences were observed in the heat wave risks calculated in this study for the upper and lower regions, with respect to cumulative heat-related morbidity rates, whereas the heat wave risk reported by the Korean Ministry of Environment was found to be insignificant. The results of this study can be used to prepare for heat waves and minimize damage caused by them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Vanuatu, communities are predicted to be at high risk of more frequent and severe Marine Heat Wave (MHW) impacts in the future, as a result of climate change. A critical sector at risk in Vanuatu is fisheries, which vitally support food security and livelihoods. To sustain local communities, the MHW risk for Vanuatu fisheries must be extensively explored. In this study, an efficient MHW risk assessment methodology is demonstrated specifically for assessing MHW risk to Vanuatu fisheries. The fisheries specific MHW risk assessment was conducted on the local area council scale for two retrospective case study periods: 2015–2017 and 2020–2022. An integrated GIS-based approach was taken to calculating and mapping monthly hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and overall risk indices. Key areas and time periods of concern for MHW impacts are identified. Area councils in the Shefa province area are particularly concerning, displaying consistently high-risk levels throughout both case studies. Risk levels in 2022 were the most concerning, with most months displaying peak risk to MHW impacts. A sensitivity analysis is employed to validate the selection and weighting of the indicators used. However, it is recommended that a more comprehensive validation of the retrospective risk assessment results, using multiple ground-truth sources, be conducted in the future. Once results are sufficiently validated, management recommendations for fisheries resilience can be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrially breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change worldwide. These central‐place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to evaluate climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait‐based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable assessment framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk. We identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes, as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species, were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at‐risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less‐studied hazards, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given that monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land‐dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatial distribution of world cultural heritage in its present-day geographical context is the foundation for the identification of and subsequent protection from key threats and vulnerabilities, particularly those arising from anthropogenic climate change. To address this challenge, we classified 45 Spanish world cultural heritage sites (WCHS) listed in the UNESCO register (as of 2023) according to type, entry date, and creation date. To establish a basis for a detailed analysis of the specific impact of climate change on the Spanish WCHS, a spatial cartographic database was developed showing the relationships between the WCHS and key geographical and climatic variables. We then used historical climate data, combined with a review of the impact mechanism of climate conditions on cultural heritage, to quantitatively evaluate the extent to which the WCHS in Spain are affected by local climate conditions from five aspects: freeze thaw cycle, thermal stress (thermoclastism), hydrodynamic scoring, corrosion, and biodegradation. Based on the above climate condition risks, we identified the five Spanish WCHS with the greatest potential climate condition risks, including Santiago de Compostela (Old Town), Pyrénées—Mont Perdu, the Roman Walls of Lugo, the Routes of Santiago de Compostela: Camino Francés and Routes of Northern Spain, and the Tower of Hercules. Additionally, based on different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we conducted a qualitative assessment of climate risk changes for WCHS in Spain under climate change. We found that the SSP1-2.6 scenario had the lowest climate risk, emphasizing the importance of achieving carbon neutrality for the protection of the WCHS. Our work translates historical climate conditions into specific climate risk levels for cultural heritage, providing data and theoretical support for effectively assessing the climate risks to Spanish WCHS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media, cognitive and emotional aspects of climate change risk judgment, and pro-environmental behavior (PEB). Method: A cross-sectional online study was conducted on a quota sample of 1,075 participants (51.9% women) aged 18–79 years. Participants self-reported their exposure to climate change-related information in traditional (e.g. television) and modern media (e.g. social networks), cognitive assessment of climate change risk, level of worry about climate change, and the frequency of PEB. Results: Structural equation modeling showed a good fit for the parallel mediation model, involving cognitive risk judgment and worry as mediators between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media and PEB. Exposure to climate change information in traditional media had indirect effect on PEB through heightened worry, but not cognitive risk judgment. In contrast, exposure to climate change information in modern media had no indirect effect on PEB. Conclusion: Since the link between exposure to climate change information in traditional media and PEB has been shown to be mediated by climate change worry, it is important to enhance the coverage of climate change in traditional media in Croatia, taking care to offer solutions to reduce possible negative impact on people's well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between thermal stress and chemical insecticides in agricultural pests has become more common owing to the global warming and human activities. Although research has shown the interaction of constant temperature or single thermal stress with insecticides, the ecological effects of sublethal thermal stress and low-dose insecticide interaction, which are more applicate to field conditions, are limited. Therefore, this study investigates the interaction of sublethal thermal stress (TS) (34 °C/180 min, 36 °C/30 min, and 38 °C/10 min) and low-dose imidacloprid (IM) applications in the maternal and offspring phenotype of the important grain aphid, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Aphididae). In the F0 generation, single TS significantly reduced the longevity, fecundity, survivorship, and population parameters of S. avenae, and the interaction between TS and IM (TS-IM) had a significant negative effect on the intrinsic rate of increase in the order 34 °C/180 min + IM > 36 °C/30 min + IM > 38 °C/10 min + IM. In the F1 generation, the development duration of nymph was increased and the intrinsic rate of increase was reduced after F0 underwent TS. However, the intrinsic rate of increase of F1 generation showed the greatest decrease under 38 °C/10 min + IM, and the lowest decrease under 34 °C/180 min + IM. The results of this study reveal the significance of evaluating together different abiotic factors, such as the interaction between thermal stress and insecticides, in the risk assessment of climate change, emphasizing the importance of the combination of different stresses in pest control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have been one of the major natural hazards in South Korea. Increasing TC threats with significant losses have been observed over the last two decades, raising demand for better TC risk assessment in this region. However, it is observed in the literature that a comprehensive framework to help understand event features, changing climate landscape and corresponding loss results is hardly studied. To fill this gap, we propose a three-step approach to quantifying TC risks. Using historical TC records, geographic information, and socioeconomic factors, we first cluster patterns of TC hazards (i.e., track, wind speed, and precipitation) affecting South Korea. We then predict TC hazards and regional economic losses per cluster, and subsequently examine the temperature trend at the grid level, which we use to study the impact of climate change on loss prediction. The results highlight that the annual TC losses are expected to increase by 14 and 45% in the years 2050 and 2100, respectively, compared to that in 2020 and that the TC season in South Korea may last longer in future. Our findings can be useful for (re)insurers and policymakers to develop risk management schemes for regions in Korea that are more vulnerable to TC risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of EPPO Bulletin is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of EPPO Bulletin is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of EPPO Bulletin is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The impacts of global climate change are not yet well integrated with the estimates of the impacts of chemicals on the environment. This is evidenced by the lack of consideration in national or international reports that evaluate the impacts of climate change and chemicals on ecosystems and the relatively few peer‐reviewed publications that have focused on this interaction. In response, a 2011 Pellston Workshop® was held on this issue and resulted in seven publications in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. Yet, these publications did not move the field toward climate change and chemicals as important factors together in research or policy‐making. Here, we summarize the outcomes of a second Pellston Workshop® on this topic held in 2022 that included climate scientists, environmental toxicologists, chemists, and ecological risk assessors from 14 countries and various sectors. Participants were charged with assessing where climate models can be applied to evaluating potential exposure and ecological effects at geographical and temporal scales suitable for ecological risk assessment, and thereby be incorporated into adaptive risk management strategies. We highlight results from the workshop's five publications included in the special series "Incorporating Global Climate Change into Ecological Risk Assessments: Strategies, Methods and Examples." We end this summary with the overall conclusions and recommendations from participants. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:359–366. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). Key Points: A SETAC Pellston Workshop® was organized in Oslo, June 2022, to explore novel approaches for incorporating climate change scenarios and global climate model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies.The workshop brought together experts from multiple disciplines including climate modeling, catchment modeling, hydrology, biogeochemistry, environmental chemistry, ecotoxicology, biology, and ecological risk assessment to build working relationships across these scientific communities.Participation from climate scientists and other experts has contributed to advancement of risk assessment methodology, for example, by the use of climate model ensembles, different approaches to downscaling, and further processing and use of climate information by statistical distributions.A new conceptual framework, Environmental Management Cycles of Chemicals and Climate Change, offers eight guiding questions to help decision‐makers identify chemical risks from climate change, management options, and different types of actors that are instrumental in managing that risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing concern that climate change poses a serious threat to the sustainability of the insurance business. Understanding whether climate warming is a cause for an increase in claims and losses, and how this cause–effect relationship will develop in the future, are two significant open questions. In this article, we answer both questions by particularizing the geographical area of Spain, and a precise risk, hailstorm in crop insurance in the line of business of wine grapes. We quantify climate change using the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We utilize a database containing all the claims resulting from hail risk in Spain from 1990 to 2022. With homogenized data, we consider as dependent variables the monthly number of claims, the monthly number of loss costs equal to one, and the monthly total losses. The independent variable is the monthly Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI). We attempt to explain the former through the latter using regression and quantile regression models. Our main finding is that climate change, as measured by the SACI, explains these three dependent variables. We also provide an estimate of the increase in the monthly total losses' Value at Risk, corresponding to a future increase in climate change measured in units of the SACI. Spanish crop insurance managers should carefully consider these conclusions in their decision-making process to ensure the sustainability of this line of business in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater mussels fulfill an important ecological role in aquatic ecosystems, but they currently face many threats, including thermal regime alteration. Thermal transformation of the aquatic environment is associated with climate change, land use alteration, and other pervasive anthropogenic global changes. To enhance our understanding of ecological thermal impacts, we combined extensive field measurements of temperature in the stream water column and substrate depths (5 and 15 cm) at sites where mussels occur, measures of abundance and species richness for mussels and fish, and thermal tolerance knowledge for mussels and fish to generate a comprehensive assessment of the potential threats mussels face as temperatures continue to rise as a result of global change. Mean summer (June–August 2010–2012) temperatures at mussel-occupied sites in the upper Tar River basin of North Carolina, USA, ranged from 16.2 to 34.7 °C. The mean temperature from the hottest 96 h at each site ranged from 23.5 to 31.5 °C. At 80% of sites, a period of moderate drought coincided with the hottest 96 h period. Temperature threshold exceedance durations indicated that chronic, combined chronic/acute, and acute freshwater mussel thermal tolerance thresholds (i.e., 28 °C, 30 °C, and 33 °C, respectively) based on laboratory exposures of glochidia (larvae) and juveniles were commonly exceeded. Water temperatures exceeded 28 °C for at least 24 h at 55% of sites and for at least 96 h at 35% of sites, and they exceeded 30 °C for at least 24 h at 15% of sites. We quantified a thermal buffering effect of the substrate that may be protective of mussels. There was a mean difference of 0.5 °C between the water column and the upper substrate (5 cm) and a mean difference of 0.9 °C between the water column and the lower substrate (15 cm). Maximum differences of up to 5.5 °C between the water column and the upper substrate and 11.5 °C between the water column and the lower substrate were observed. Our models estimating the relation between the water column and substrate temperatures more realistically characterize ambient temperature exposures and have widespread implications for mussel conservation and climate change risk assessment in similar streams. Freshwater mussels currently exist on the edge of their thermal limits, but their abundance and species richness cannot be explained by temperature patterns alone. Fish species richness was related to the thermal regime, indicating that species interactions may be an important driver of freshwater mussel responses to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest ecosystems are vital for sustainable development and human well-being globally and in Europe. Sustainably managed forests are fundamental in combating natural disasters and providing multiple important goods and services for humans and the environment. However, with increasing climate change and its associated effects, forests have become severely and regularly prone to fires. This is seriously threatening forest protection, human safety, the economy, and biodiversity. In this context, understanding future forest fire risks, susceptibility, hazards, and fire prevention is essentially needed. This study thus examines the forest fire risks and hazards in Leiria National Forest (Mata Nacional de Leiria), Portugal using the 2017 forest fire as a benchmark. With the adoption of GIS and remote sensing techniques and data, vegetation type (NDMI), human factors (roads and settlement proximity), and terrain characteristics (slope and aspect) were assessed to map fire risk. Through multi-criteria analysis, these data were integrated to generate a forest fire risk index. Results demonstrate that about 46% of the study area is within high-risk and risky zones, 50% is considered moderate-risk fire zones and 3% is classified as low and risk-free zones. Sensitivity analysis indicated that high-risk areas are mostly low moisture coniferous fuel types while risk-free areas are high moisture deciduous fuel types. Further, it was established that the observed high-risk and risky zones are attributed mostly to proximity to settlements and roads and little topographical influence. The study thus suggests an increased future forest fire risk under the prevailing conditions and a hiking potential of increased burnt areas. We thus proposed effective proactive measures and adaptive management approaches to prevent and mitigate the devastating impacts of forest fires within the study location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the projected changes in flood impacts across Iowa (central United States) and the associated uncertainties by forcing a hydrologic model with downscaled global climate model outputs and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Our results point to projected increasing magnitude and variability in flooding across the state, especially for high‐emission scenarios. Next, we partition the flood impacts' projections into: (a) the response of the global climate models to anthropogenic forcing, (b) scenario uncertainty due to emissions, and (c) internal climate variability. We find scenario uncertainty plays a small role, while climate model uncertainty and internal climate variability dominate the flood impacts' projections, with the contribution of model uncertainty increasing toward the end of this century. Insights from our work can be utilized by stakeholders to understand the current limitations of flood impact projections and provide suggestions about where modelers should focus efforts to reduce uncertainty. Plain Language Summary: This study looks at how climate change is projected to affect floods in Iowa (central United States). The results suggest that flooding is projected to worsen and become more unpredictable, especially with higher greenhouse gas emissions. The main sources of uncertainty in these projections are the differences in climate models' response to forcings and natural climate variability. Understanding these uncertainties can help improve future climate change assessments for flood risk stakeholders such as agencies working toward climate adaptation and water management and improve related risk assessments and planning analysis. Key Points: Climate models producing larger increases in flood peak magnitude typically produce larger changes in varianceClimate model uncertainty is dominant in the early 21st century, while internal climate variability dominates the later part of the 21st centuryUncertainty in flood peaks directly translates to flood risk across Iowa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical montane ecosystems are highly vulnerable to global climate change, but their species-level conservation vulnerability assessments generally do not incorporate climate threats. The Colombian páramo is a highly diverse montane ecosystem but it contains relatively few species currently identified as threatened on the IUCN Red List. We explore whether current assessments need revising to account for climate change threats for páramo species. We use a climate change vulnerability assessment framework to evaluate the risks and opportunities from climate change for 60 bird species within the Colombian páramo. We explore two potential climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), representing best and worst-case projections. We find that more than half (52–68%, depending on the scenario) of bird species will be threatened by climate change by the end of the century, but a very poor agreement between the current conservation status of species and their climate vulnerability score. We find ~ 90% of species identified as climate-threatened are not currently identified as being of conservation concern, representing a substantial new suite of priority species within the Colombian páramo. Overall, we identify up to 34 páramo bird species that are threatened by climate change but not currently listed as being of conservation concern. Similar mismatches may also occur in other montane taxa and so updating species risk assessments to account for climate change is urgently needed. Implementation of appropriate conservation actions is also needed to reduce species' risks from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzed long-term fluctuations of groundwater levels in six shallow observation wells in the Nasunogahara alluvial fan, Japan's second largest source of agricultural irrigation groundwater, and presented a simple method for predicting groundwater levels in April prior to the annual planting of paddy rice. The 22-year time-series of groundwater levels (1998–2019) clearly showed seasonal periodicity, with higher levels in summer than in winter. In particular, groundwater levels were lowest in April when groundwater demand was greatest. Groundwater levels in two wells at the beginning of the April irrigation period showed long-term declining trends that can be attributed more to changes in land use than to changes in precipitation or air temperature. A simple linear regression of mean groundwater level in April to antecedent precipitation provided reasonable predictions of April groundwater levels, which were significantly influenced by precipitation in the preceding 3–5 months. Further modeling after subtraction of long-term seasonal trends (detrending) improved these estimates. The performance of the linear regression model for prediction of April groundwater levels is comparable to that of the statistical benchmark model. Using long-term monthly or seasonal weather forecasts, the modeling presented here can be applied to inform appropriate changes of water use practices, such as decreasing groundwater extraction by implementing rotational water supply, changing rice-cropping seasons, or targeting deeper aquifers. The identification of the critical period of antecedent precipitation that affected April groundwater levels in the Nasunogahara alluvial fan is also important for understanding appropriate precipitation periods to be targeted in modeling for future drought risk assessments under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EPPO Bulletin has published a special issue on the effects of climate change on pests, emphasizing the importance of considering climate change in pest risk assessment and decision-making. The issue includes papers developed by the International Pest Risk Research Group (IPRRG) and a working group from the International Plant Protection Convention (IPCC). The papers address various aspects of climate change and its impact on pest risks, providing guidance for pest risk assessors and managers. The special issue aims to share experiences and perspectives, serve as a resource, and initiate conversations on the topic. [Extracted from the article]

Research on climate change, water quality, and their relationship is critical for human survival and development. It can help better mitigate climate change and contribute to appropriate water quality management strategies under uncertain challenges in the future. In this study, bibliometric analysis was used to provide a comprehensive review of the research field of climate change and water quality from 1990 to 2022. The extraction of documents was carried out from the Web of Science Core Collection database. VOSviewer, Bibliometrix R-package, and CiteSpace were used for analysis and scientific mapping. The results show that China, the United States, and Canada are the main countries driving this field, and China and the United States closely cooperate. It was also found that the areas of water eutrophication and climate change research had a close relationship and were the current research hotspots. Finally, it is revealed that the areas of sustainable development of climate change and water quality management, model simulation and method improvement between climate change and water quality, groundwater quality risk assessment driven by climate change, the impact of water on climate change, and expanding the research scale of the relationship between climate change and water quality will be the future research trends in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Futuristic rainfall projections are used in scale and various climate impact assessments. However, the influence of climate variability on spatial distribution patterns and characteristics of rainfall at the local level, especially in semi-arid catchments that are highly variable and are not well explored. In this study, we explore the influence of climate variability on the spatial distribution and rainfall characteristics at a local scale in the semi-arid Shashe catchment, Northeastern Botswana. The LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator downscaling method, three representative scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 4.5), three trend detection methods (Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope, and innovative trend analysis) and L-moment method were used to assess climate change impacts on rainfall. Two data sets were used; one with 40 years of observed data from 1981–2020 and the other with 70 years from 1981–2050 (40 years of observed and 30 years of projected data from 2021–2050). Generally, the study found trend inconsistencies for all the trend detection methods. In most cases, Sen's Slope has a high estimate of observed and RCP 2.6, while ITA overestimates rainfall totals under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The trend is increasing for annual total rainfall in most gauging stations while decreasing for annual maximum rainfall. The catchment is homogeneous, and Generalized Logistic distribution is the dataset's best-fit distribution. Spatial coverage of a 100-year rainfall between 151–180 mm will be 81% based on observed data and 87% based on projected data under RCP 2.6 scenario when it happens. A 200-year rainfall between 196–240 mm under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 has high spatial areal coverage, at least 90% of the total catchment. The outcomes of this study will provide insightful information for water resource management and flood risk assessment under climate change. There is a need, however, to assess the transferability of this approach to other catchments in the country and assess the performance of other advanced modelling systems, such as machine learning, in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bai et al. ([3]) in their article «Impact of climate change on water transfer scale of inter-basin water diversion project» present a systematic approach for runoff prediction, impact analysis, and risk assessment under climate change. Elnashar and Elyamany ([8], [9]) in the paper «Managing Risks of Climate Change on Irrigation Water in Arid Regions», propose a systematic approach to identify, analyse, and respond to the risks of climate change on irrigation water in arid regions using a Risk Management process. In the paper «Complex policy mixes are needed to cope with agricultural water demands under climate change» by Martinez-Valderrama et al. ([23]) the authors argue that the forecast of the water gap (difference between agricultural water use and annual supply of water resources) will continue to widen, affecting the water security of a large part of the world's population. Elnashar and Elyamany ([8], [9]) in the paper «Adapting Irrigation Strategies to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts: A Value Engineering Approach» accept the fact that climate change will increase water demand and decrease crop yields. [Extracted from the article]

Factors associated with structural racism, disenfranchisement, poverty, and other persistent sources of inequity are associated with vulnerability and exposure to environmental hazards. Social, demographic, and environmental factors associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards have been used by many researchers to produce indexes of hazard vulnerability. In preparation for a climate change health risk assessment for Washington state, we compared methods and results from six indexes designed to support environmental health risk assessment. Production of these indexes varies in the number of variables considered, calculation complexity, and exposure of local causal pathways. Results for these indexes are generally very similar, especially at the highest decile of vulnerability, the exception being the Environmental Health Disparities index, the only one to consider hazard exposure. Some indexes used methods that hide causal pathways. Those that exposed causal pathways limited model structure. Results indicate that simpler indexes may be more appropriate for use in decision support tools as they require less overhead for data updates and scenario analysis and that other methodologies may provide a more useful framework for index generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination/immunization plays a key role in maintaining the optimum health of humans and animals where the prevalence of disease is high and treatment becomes less effective. There are salient barriers to the successful development of vaccines, including (1) incomplete understanding of how immunity develops, (2) host variability, (3) pathogen variability, (4) new vaccines and vaccine Safety, and (5) non-heritable factors [[5]]. An example for this is COVID-19 vaccines, as with routine vaccine development, it takes 10 years for the vaccine to reach the public. [Extracted from the article]

Global climate models (GCMs) from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases (CMIP6) have been employed to simulate the twenty-first-century temperatures for the risk assessment of future climate change. However, their transient climate response (TCR) ranges from 1.2 to 2.8 °C, whereas their equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) ranges from 1.8 to 5.7 °C, leading to large variations in the climatic impact of an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 levels. Moreover, there is growing evidence that many GCMs are running "too hot" and are hence unreliable for directing policies for future climate changes. Here, I rank 41 CMIP6 GCMs according to how successfully they hindcast the global surface warming between 1980 and 2021 using both their published ECS and TCR estimates. The sub-ensemble of GCMs with the best performance appears to be composed of the models with ECS ranging between 1.8 and 3.0 °C (which confirms previous studies) and TCR ranging between 1.2 and 1.8 °C. This GCM sub-ensemble is made up of a total of 17 models. Depending on the emission scenarios, these GCMs predict a 2045–2055 warming of 1.5–2.5 °C compared to the pre-industrial era (1850–1900). As a result, the global aggregated impact and risk estimates seem to be moderate, which implies that any negative effects of future climate change may be adequately addressed by adaptation programs. However, there are also doubts regarding the actual magnitude of global warming, which might be exaggerated because of urban heat contamination and other local non-climatic biases. A final section is dedicated to highlighting the divergences observed between the global surface temperature records and a number of alternative temperature reconstructions from lower troposphere satellite measurements, tree-ring-width chronologies, and surface temperature records based on rural stations alone. If the global warming reported by the climate records is overestimated, the real ECS and TCR may be significantly lower than what is produced by the CMIP6 GCMs, as some independent studies have already suggested, which would invalidate all of the CMIP6 GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a methodology to develop the integrated toxicity and climate change risk assessment of Europe based facilities, industries and regions. There is an increasingly important need for large scale sustainability measurement solutions for company reporting with high granularity. In this paper we measure key aspects of Sustainable Development Goals in terms of human, cancer and non-cancer toxicity, ecotoxicity together with global warming impact potentials from point source pollutant releases of more than 10,000 companies and their 33,000 facilities in Europe from 2001 to 2017, by using the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register. For our assessment, we deploy a scientific consensus model, USEtox for characterizing human and ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals and the global warming potential values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss water and air emissions of dozens of pollutants in urban, rural, coastal and inland areas. Companies in the electricity production sector are estimated to have the largest human toxicity impact potential (46% of total) and the largest global warming impact potential (50%), while companies in the sewerage sector have the largest ecotoxicity impact potential (50%). In the overall economy, the correlation between facilities' global warming and toxicity impact potentials is positive, however, not very strong. Therefore, we argue that carbon footprint of industrial organizations can be only used as a climate change risk indicator, but not as an overall environmental performance indicator. We confirm impact potentials of major pollutants in previous research papers (Hg accounting for 76% of the total human toxicity and Zn accounting for 68% of total ecotoxicity), although we draw the attention to the limitations of USEtox in case of metals. From 2001 to 2017 total human toxicity dropped by 28%, although the downward trend reversed in 2016. Ecotoxicity and global warming impact potentials remained unchanged in the same period. Finally, we show that the European pollutant release monitoring data quality could be further improved, as only three quarters of the toxic releases are measured in the Member States of the European Union, and a high share of toxic pollutant releases are only estimated in some countries. Of the measured or calculated toxic releases, only one third is reported according to the most robust CEN/ISO standards and about one fifth according to the least preferred other methods, like engineering judgements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-use of climate information is often attributed to scientists failing to understand what decision-makers need. In response, co-production offers one promising method to improve the usability, and therein, use of climate information. Yet it remains unclear to what extent usability and use are linked, or if other factors influence the non-use of climate information. This paper critically examines two efforts to co-produce climate information for UK adaptation decision-making: the first and second cycles of the climate change risk assessment to gather evidence and then inform the national adaptation programme. To do this, a mixed methods approach was used: (i) textual analysis of official Government documents, and (ii) in-depth interviews with key actors. Our research found that the institutional-political context in which climate information is produced and used, played a significant role in defining who the user should be, how the data analysis was performed, and the extent to which that information was used. Just because something is co-produced does not mean it will be usable, nor does something that's usable automatically mean it will be used. Unless new research seeks to better understand how the modes of production (linear vs. co-production) influence the use of climate information, who uses it, and how it's used, questions will remain over whether the right barriers to climate inaction have been tackled. • Co-production promises to improve the usability and use of climate information. • We conducted an interview and document analysis of the UK's climate change risk assessments. • Use and usability of climate information differ. • More research is needed on the difference co-production makes to use and usability of climate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies reported an ambiguous global sea level acceleration during the satellite altimetry (SA) era (1993-2017). New SA data created an opportunity to resolve this issue. In this study, two competing kinematic models to represent global mean sea level anomalies are compared. The first model consists of an initial velocity and uniform acceleration. The second model replaces the initial velocity and acceleration with a trend and a representation of a long periodic lunar subharmonic of period 55.8 y, which is determined to be statistically significant at globally distributed tide gauge records. The models also include parameters for the periodic effects of lunisolar origin with periods 18.6 y and 11.1 y annual, and biannual variations in 10-day average of globally SA measurements during 1993-2022. Generalized least squares solutions yielded updated statistically significant estimates for all the model parameters and their statistics for both models. However, the outcome failed to resolve the ambiguity of uniform acceleration in global mean sea level confounded with the long periodic lunar subharmonic of period 55.8 y during this period. This epistemic uncertainty will have a dire impact on climate change risk assessments as demonstrated through the prospective comparison of both kinematic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on advocating for interdisciplinary collaboration to develop effective strategies addressing the health impacts of climate change. Topics include the necessity of involving experts from diverse fields beyond meteorology, such as policy makers and stakeholders, in climate and health research.

River floods, which are one of the most dangerous natural hazards worldwide, have increased in intensity and frequency in recent decades as a result of climate change, and the future scenario is expected to be even worse. Therefore, their knowledge, predictability, and mitigation represent a key challenge for the scientific community in the coming decades, especially in those local areas that are most vulnerable to these extreme events. In this sense, a multiscale analysis is essential to obtain detailed maps of the future evolution of floods. In the multiscale analysis, the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) project are used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) which, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber +). This integration allows knowing the projected future changes in the flow pattern of the river, as well as analyzing the impact of floods in vulnerable areas through the flood hazard maps obtained with hydraulic simulations. The multiscale analysis is applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to the city of Ourense. The results show a delay in the flood season and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme river flows in the Miño-Sil basin, which will cause more situations of flooding in many areas frequented by pedestrians and in important infrastructure of the city of Ourense. In addition, an increase in water depths associated with future floods was also detected, confirming the trend for future floods to be not only more frequent but also more intense. Detailed maps of the future evolution of floods also provide key information to decision-makers to take effective measures in advance in those areas most vulnerable to flooding in the coming decades. Although the methodology presented is applied to a particular area, its strength lies in the fact that its implementation in other basins and cities is simple, also taking into account that all the models used are freely accessible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the private sector becomes increasingly aware of the risks associated with climate change, climatologists have been engaging with companies to assess climate change risks and opportunities. Here, we outline how we have collaborated with a Fortune 500 company to assess the physical risks of climate change to their facilities. We provide a template for a climate change report card that we generated for >100 facilities globally. This report card is designed to communicate risk to company leadership and local facility managers. We believe that by sharing our experiences, climate scientists will be able to quantify and communicate climate risk more effectively to the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moreover, there is a need to transition from water scarcity towards water security for a water-secure present and future. The research concludes with a roadmap that envisages the integration of social capacity to address the complex interaction and co-evolution of the human-water system to foster water-supply resilience in the study area. For eternity, water resources have proven to be the key to inclusive social development and human well-being. In addition, future water shortages can be solved by investment in water supply infrastructures in combination with the use of alternative water sources, such as rainwater and desalinated seawater. [Extracted from the article]

Numerous studies have demonstrated the tourism industry to be especially sensitive to weather and climate variability. Snow-related tourism, being largely dependent on climatic resources, is particularly affected by climate change. Our study provides a new index to reflect the climatic suitability of a given destination for snow-related tourism activities, focusing on resorts with usually limited snowfall. The proposed Skiing Utility Index (SUI) is based purely on the weather preferences of skiers, extracted by questionnaires distributed at the Parnassos ski center (Greece). The index incorporates four different weather variables considered to be the most influential for this type of tourism. The ideal temperature for skiing was found to be close to 0 °C, the ideal wind speed between 0–3.3 m/s, the ideal cloud cover between 0–25% and the snowfall duration between 1–2 h, with the latter found to be the most important variable for skiing. For each climatic variable, a mean utility score profile was developed from all respondents. Following, a utility function was fitted via linear regression to the above-mentioned utility score. All four utility functions were aggregated into one total SUI score. When combined with climate projections, the SUI can support the assessment of climate change risks for snow-related tourism destinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the growing power of finance over cities and housing, the relationships between finance, climate risk management, and urban governance have yet to be examined from a climate gentrification perspective. Putting the practices of a wide array of property finance stakeholders in conversation with the foundational concept of the rent gap, we identify two real estate rent dynamics that are emerging against the prospect of climate-driven urban restructuring: risk rents, or new forms of value capture crafted against future risk, and rent at risk, or the anticipated loss of rent due to risk. We in turn illustrate how climate risk-rent dynamics constitute new or intensified processes of gentrification in Greater Miami, Florida. Through three vignettes, we show how configurations of real estate and finance climate risk management produce variegated yet interrelated opportunities for devaluation and revaluation, displacement, and downgrading. Such strategies push the gentrification frontier into new physical as well as institutional spaces. The Greater Miami story underscores the need for new forms of knowledge, coalition building, and integrated urban climate risk management practices that directly confront underlying financial drivers of housing and spatial injustice in risky real estate markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The RMetS hosted its second Climate Change Forum at the Coin Street Conference Centre, London, on 20 October 2022, with support from the Institute of Food Science and Technology (IFST), the Chartered Institute of Highways and Transportation (CIHT) and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). These highlighted the high standard of weather and climate data needed for understanding infrastructure risks from climate change, and some key methods for adaptation to climate change across the UK. The overarching outcome was the need to give producers agency and responsibility to tackle climate change, and shift agricultural practices to be more "climate smart". [Extracted from the article]

Around the globe, the number and cost of weather-related events that cause financial losses have been increasing rapidly, in parallel with growing evidence for the effects of climate change. Yet surprisingly, since 1980 - when global-scale data become reliable - the strongest driver of the trend in costs is increasing wealth and not increasingly severe or frequent hurricanes. In fact, there is no strong evidence pointing to an additional role for climate change in the trend of increasing financial losses for weather disasters. Recognizing that disasters are always complex, should this be interpreted to mean that climate change has not been a major factor in disaster losses? Will it be a major factor in the future? How can we use historical experience as a guide to building climate-change proof infrastructure? Understanding climate change and its links to weather-related extremes is one key to answering these questions. Another is appreciating the role of human actions in amplifying or suppressing the impacts of weather-related extremes. As climate change impacts become more frequent and severe, we need smart adaptation that builds on science, integrates experience from history, capitalizes on opportunities for win-win solutions, and is designed to accommodate new information as it becomes available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk management is fundamental to the pursuit of climate change adaptation, particularly in public sectors, through integrated cross-sectoral policies and government planning. This integration with Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction is a way of transforming policies into local actions. Climate emergencies are explored as a potential risk to one public sector, the Fire and Rescue Services, due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-related incidents (floods and wildfires). The research assesses Britain's national policies on climate adaptation, which have developed significant environmental research and legislation since 1997: the Civil Contingencies Act (2004), Climate Change Act (2008), Climate Change Risk Assessment (2012) and periodically the National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. From interviews with West Yorkshire firefighters, integrated community risk management is critical for gathering quality-assured data to implement positive change in public sectors, consolidating Climate Change Adaptation and supporting Disaster Risk Reduction. Although multi-agency community engagement is suitable for understanding local vulnerabilities, the frequency of incidents dictates investments and limited resources are barriers for action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the increasing concerns surrounding floods, fires, and droughts as extreme climate events and the urgent need to improve risk assessment and management abilities. It emphasizes the importance of conducting comprehensive climate risk assessments to develop effective strategies for mitigating the impacts of these disasters, particularly in marginalized and vulnerable communities. The article highlights the importance of both prospective and retrospective risk assessment methods/tools in understanding climate impacts and managing current and future climate change risks. However, it also identifies several major knowledge gaps in the field, such as the lack of locally relevant climate risk indicators and tools, limited understanding of socioeconomic impacts, and the need for standardized metrics and comprehensive consideration of vulnerability. The article calls for further research and the development of innovative tools to increase climate-related risk assessment and management, incorporating participatory community research and leveraging technological advancements. It also emphasizes the importance of cross-sectional collaboration to ensure that climatic risk assessments are incorporated into policy and decision-making processes. [Extracted from the article]

• BMA integrates multiple precipitation datasets output by RegCM4.6. • TOPSIS couples 4 objective weighting methods to assess historical flood risks. • K-means optimized MGWR assesses projected flood risk under SSPs and RCPs. • Intensifying flood risk with growing precipitation and urbanization in beijing. • Reducing carbon emissions can effectively mitigate urban flood risks. Previous research has primarily focused on evaluating flood risks influenced by single factors, often neglecting the combined impacts of climate change and urbanization on historical and future flood risks. This study utilized 12 assessment indicators across three criteria layers. It employed the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and an optimized Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) to develop a comprehensive assessment framework for historical and projected urban flood risks under combined scenarios of RCPs and SSPs. The risk of future extreme precipitation events increased under 4 RCPs. Compared with 2010, Beijing's urban land area is expected to increase by an average of 53.64 % in 2060 under 5 SSPs, accompanied by rapid socioeconomic development. MGWR based on K-means optimization improves operational speed by reducing the number of patches. The areas classified as high and highest flood risk levels increased by 38.87 % and 60.17 % from the 2010s to the 2060s, indicating an upward trend in future flood risk. Higher flood risk is observed under the high emissions combination scenario. Structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that road network density (RND), runoff depth (RD), and distance to road (DRO) were the main influencing factors contributing to flood risks in Beijing. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate risk continues to be framed ostensibly in terms of physical, socio-economic and/or ecological risks, as evidenced in the 2012 and 2017 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) evidence reports. This article argues that framing climate risk in this way remains problematic for the science-policy process, particularly in ensuring adequate climate risk assessment information translates into more effective adaptation decision-making. We argue how climate risk assessments need to further consider the social and political aspects of place-based climate risk to ensure more effective adaptation policy outcomes. Using a discourse analysis of the CCRA3 Technical Report methods chapter published in June 2021, we discuss three critical themes around how climate risk is currently framed within the Technical Report methods chapter. These are (i) the over-reliance on reductive methodological framing of assessing climate risk through 'urgency scores'; (ii) the idea of what constitutes 'opportunity'; and (iii) the framing of transformational adaptation discourses through the lens of climate risk. To conclude, we suggest that to move beyond assessing risk solely in terms of biophysical and socio-economic risk, a greater emphasis on the social and political contexts of 'place-based' risk needs to be central to climate change risk assessments. • Climate risk is predominantly framed in terms of physical, socio-economic and/or ecological risk. • Such framings are problematic for effective adaptation policy decision-making. • We conducted a discourse analysis on a methods chapter in the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. • Three key themes emerged around reductive methods, what constitutes 'opportunity' and transformational adaptation framing. • Social and political contexts of 'place-based' risk needs to be more central when assessing climate risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing interest in the impact of climate change on the financial system. For financial institutions, the development of knowledge specific to climate risks requires collaboration with the academic sphere, and in particular with climate scientists. However, five years after the Paris agreement, such collaborations are scarce. Through a compared analysis of the perception and management of climate risks by financial risk managers and climate scientists, we seek to understand how different risk perceptions can be an obstacle to collaboration between these two social groups. To this end, we adopt an interdisciplinary approach based on the results of semi-structured interviews. We identify two types of differences that constitute obstacles: differences in valuation, linked to the perception of the climate threat and the vulnerability of the financial system, and differences in the construction of a relationship of risk, related to the modelling, organisation and communication of risk and uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comparative analysis of catchment management dams in Cork, Ireland and Brisbane, Australia to demonstrate how interactions between municipal government and expert advisors for public infrastructure administration can constrain community climate adaptation. The analysis highlights how neoliberal economic rationalism can appropriate public value choice under the guise of technocratic expertise. Experts are often considered responsible agents for the effective administration of public infrastructure, even when ostensibly technical decisions concerning infrastructure management seem to demand normative, political input. Technocratic administration arising from economic rationalist priorities can thereby exacerbate the hazards presented by climate variability and advancing climate change. Climate risk managers in both cases over‐relied on operating protocols and the expertise of engineers to administer public infrastructure in pursuit of economic priorities. When operating protocols proved insufficient in the face of climate extremes, however, blame was assigned to experts despite their making all available attempts to avert disaster. Through analysis of these cases, the paper discusses the need for normative transparency in expert‐led public administration and better integration of multi‐level governance for climate resilience when pursuing economic rationalist imperatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]