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Enhanced fire-prone weather under greenhouse gas warming can significantly affect local and global carbon budgets from increased fire occurrence, influencing carbon-climate feedbacks. However, the extent to which changes in fire-prone weather and associated carbon emissions can be mitigated by negative emissions remains uncertain. Here, we analyze fire weather responses in CO2 removal climate model experiments and estimate their potential carbon emissions based on an observational relationship between fire weather and fire-induced CO2 emissions. The results highlight that enhanced fire danger under global warming cannot be restored instantaneously by CO2 reduction, mainly due to atmospheric dryness maintained by climatic inertia. The exacerbated fire danger is projected to contribute to extra CO2 emissions in 68% of global regions due to the hysteresis of climate responses to CO2 levels. These findings highlight that even under global cooling from negative emissions, increased fire activity may reinforce the fire-carbon-climate feedback loop and result in further socio-economic damage. This study shows that increased fire risk under global warming may not decrease in line with CO2 reductions. The exacerbated fire danger is projected to contribute to extra CO2 emissions in 68% of the world due to the hysteresis of climate responses to CO2 levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations based on physical models of the thermosphere‐ionosphere system suggest that the ionosphere will sink as the thermosphere cools and contracts in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. As a consequence, long‐term trends can be expected in ionospheric parameters such as: total electron content (TEC), the critical frequency of the F2 layer, foF2, and its peak height, hmF2. Since early 1990s, foF2 and hmF2, though to a lesser extent, have been widely analyzed to find these trends. This study shows long‐term TEC trends for the period 1999–2023 from available global International GNSS service TEC maps. Using F30, F10.7 or MgII as proxies to filter out the effect of solar EUV, the trends are negative, not only for the mean global value but also for most regions with very few exceptions. This would align with the greenhouse effect hypothesis, even though our results show higher negative trend values than expected theoretically. Plain Language Summary: The Earth's ionosphere presents long‐term trends besides regular changes such as daily and seasonal, and irregular variations of transient character. Many studies suggest that the long‐term increase in greenhouse gas concentrations will produce a global cooling in the upper atmosphere together with the global warming in the troposphere. Therefore, long‐term trends can be expected in the ionosphere total electron content (TEC), the critical frequency of the F2 layer, foF2, and its peak height, hmF2, which are the three most important ionospheric parameters used in several applications. TEC measurements have the advantage over other parameters that characterize the upper atmosphere having 24 × 365 worldwide coverage thanks to the continuous International GNSS service (IGS). Trends in the ionosphere are much weaker than those associated with the solar cycle, thus its effects were removed using different solar EUV radiation proxies. The trends are negative, as expected, not only for the mean global value case but also for most of the regional values with very few exceptions. Key Points: Trend depends on the solar EUV proxy used for filtering being most negative with MgII and non‐significant with SNBased on recommended solar proxies, noon total electron content (TEC) global average reveal a negative significant trend along 1999–2023The negative trend of the global TEC at noon is much more pronounced than the theoretical prediction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global average upper atmosphere temperature changes linked with the Hunga volcanic eruption (January 2022) are analyzed based on satellite measurements and compared with chemistry‐climate model simulations. Results show stratospheric cooling of −0.5 to −1.0 K in the middle and upper stratosphere during 2022 through middle 2023, followed by stronger cooling (−1.0 to −2.0 K) in the mesosphere after middle 2023. The cooling patterns follow the upward propagating water vapor (H2O) anomalies from Hunga, and similar behavior is found between observations and model simulations. While the stratospheric cooling is mainly due to radiative cooling from enhanced H2O, the mesospheric temperature changes result from ozone losses in the mesosphere, which are in‐turn driven by HOx radicals from Hunga H2O. Comparisons with the multi‐decade climate record show that Hunga impacts on stratospheric temperatures have similar magnitude, but opposite sign, to temperature effects from the large El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions. Plain Language Summary: We analyze temperature changes in the upper atmosphere due to the Hunga volcanic eruption in January 2022 using satellite observations and simulations from a state‐of‐the‐art chemistry‐climate model. Hunga was an underwater volcano that emitted a large amount of water vapor (H2O) directly into the stratosphere, and this H2O has moved slowly upwards over time and mostly remains in the upper atmosphere. Observations show cooling of the stratosphere (20–50 km) by 0.5–1.0 K during 2022 to middle 2023, and cooling of the mesosphere (50–80 km) by 1.0–2.0 K after middle 2023. The cooling patterns follow the upward moving Hunga H2O plume. The model simulations show good agreement with observations, and the model is used to diagnose that the cooling is due to Hunga H2O impacts. The long‐lasting, global‐scale cooling from Hunga has similar magnitude, but opposite sign, to stratospheric warming observed from previous large volcanic eruptions (El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991); the differences are due to the large H2O emitted by Hunga. Key Points: Global average cooling of 1–2 K is observed in the upper atmosphere during 2022–2024 following Hunga eruption in January 2022Good agreement of observations with chemistry‐climate model simulations; cooling is mainly due to Hunga H2O impactsHunga‐forced cooling is comparable in magnitude to stratospheric warming following El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) eruptions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stromatoporoids were major reef-builders during the middle Paleozoic; however, no Carboniferous stromatoporoid reefs have been reported. The Akiyoshi Limestone Group of southwest Japan formed on a seamount in the Panthalassa Ocean from the Mississippian (Visean) to the middle Permian (Capitanian). The Early Pennsylvanian (Bashkirian) reefcore setting was well developed and laterally differentiated into several reef environments. Laminated skeletons made up of cystose or flat laminae and pillar-like vertical structures were abundant and, together with Chaetetes, contributed greatly to reef construction in most reef-core environments. The morphology of the laminated skeletons clearly indicates a stromatoporoid, probably labechiid, affinity. Thus, a lineage of reef-building stromatoporoids reappeared on a Panthalassan seamount in a locally warm-water tropical setting after the Late Devonian extinctions. Ongoing global glaciation may have resulted in enhanced ocean circulation, upwelling, and nutrient supply, especially around shallow-water seamounts, culminating in elevated carbonate saturation, which should have favored hypercalcified stromatoporoids and Chaetetes. The Chaetetes–stromatoporoid reefs remained in the Moscovian, but probably died out during the Kasimovian with intensive global cooling and frequent subaerial exposure, to be replaced by Palaeoaplysina–phylloid algal reefs. The occurrence of Bashkirian reef-building stromatoporoids indicates that Paleozoic stromatoporoids continued as reef-builders long after the Late Devonian extinction, at least in Panthalassa. This occurrence emphasizes the significance of rarely preserved open, but isolated oceanic settings like Akiyoshi for global biogeography and evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The family Lauraceae is subdivided into six main lineages: Caryodaphnopsideae, Cassytheae, Cryptocaryeae, Hypodaphnideae, Laureae, and Neocinnamomeae. However, phylogenetic relationships among these lineages have been debatable due to incongruence between trees constructed using nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA) sequences and chloroplast (cp) genomes. As with cp DNA, the mitochondrial (mt) DNA of most flowering plants is maternally inherited, so the phylogenetic relationships recovered with mt genomes are expected to be consistent with that from cp genomes, rather than nrDNA sequences. Results: The mitogenome of Machilus yunnanensis, with a length of 735,392 bp, has a very different genome size and gene linear order from previously published magnoliid mitogenomes. Phylogenomic reconstructions based on 41 mt genes from 92 Lauraceae mitogenomes resulted in highly supported relationships: sisterhood of the Laureae and a group containing Neocinnamomeae and Caryodaphnopsideae, with Cassytheae being the next sister group, followed by Cryptocaryeae. However, we found significant incongruence among the mitochondrial, chloroplast, and nuclear phylogenies, especially for the species within the Caryodaphnopsideae and Neocinnamomeae lineages. Time-calibrated phylogenetic analyses showed that the split between Caryodaphnopsideae and Neocinnamomeae dated to the later Eocene, around 38.5 Ma, Laureae originated in the Late Cretaceous, around 84.9 Ma, Cassytheae originated in the mid-Cretaceous around 102 Ma, and Cryptocaryeae originated in the Early Cretaceous around 116 Ma. From the Late Cretaceous to the Paleocene, net diversification rates significantly increased across extant clades of major lineages, and both speciation rates and net diversification rates continued steady growth towards the present. Conclusions: The topology obtained here for the first time shows that mt genes can be used to support relationships among lineages of Lauraceae. Our results highlight that both Caryodaphnopsideae and Neocinnamomeae lineages are younger than previously thought, likely first diversifying in the Eocene, and species in the other extant lineages of Lauraceae dates in a long-time span from the Early Cretaceous to the Eocene, and the climate of a period of about 90 million years was relatively warm, while the extant species of Lauraceae then continuously diversified with global cooling from the Eocene to the present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent analyses show the importance of methane shortwave absorption, which many climate models lack. In particular, Allen et al. (2023) used idealized climate model simulations to show that methane shortwave absorption mutes up to 30 % of the surface warming and 60 % of the precipitation increase associated with its longwave radiative effects. Here, we explicitly quantify the radiative and climate impacts due to shortwave absorption of the present-day methane perturbation. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes the warming effects of longwave absorption. For example, the global mean cooling in response to the present-day methane shortwave absorption is -0.10±0.07 K, which offsets 28 % (7 %–55 %) of the surface warming associated with present-day methane longwave radiative effects. The precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation (0.012±0.006 mm d -1) is also muted by shortwave absorption but not significantly so (-0.008±0.009 mm d -1). The unique responses to methane shortwave absorption are related to its negative top-of-the-atmosphere effective radiative forcing but positive atmospheric heating and in part to methane's distinctive vertical atmospheric solar heating profile. We also find that the present-day methane shortwave radiative effects, relative to its longwave radiative effects, are about 5 times larger than those under idealized carbon dioxide perturbations. Additional analyses show consistent but non-significant differences between the longwave versus shortwave radiative effects for both methane and carbon dioxide, including a stronger (negative) climate feedback when shortwave radiative effects are included (particularly for methane). We conclude by reiterating that methane remains a potent greenhouse gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine fallout ash beds can provide continuous, time‐precise records of highly explosive arc volcanism that can be linked with the climate record. An evaluation of revised Plio‐Pleistocene (0–4 Myr) tephrostratigraphies from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 881, 882, and 884 confirms cyclicity of the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism and a marked increase just after the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation at 2.73 Ma. The compositional constancy of the Kamchatka‐Kurile volcano‐magma systems through time points to external modulation of volcanic cyclicity and frequency. The stacked tephra record reveals periodic peaks in arc volcanicity at ∼0.3, ∼1.0, ∼1.6, ∼2.5, and ∼3.8 Myr that coincide with maxima of the global ice volume variability that have been linked with the amplitude modulation of the precession (0.3, 1.0 Myr) and obliquity (1.6, 2.5 and 3.8 Myr) bands. A simple model of a decreasing obliquity variance across the mid‐Pleistocene Transition at constant precession variance produces an excellent correlation of ash bed cycles with the variability of global benthic δ18O (r2 = 0.75), which implies that climate, and not direct orbital forcing, modulates Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism. The rising influence of precession variance in the Kamchatka‐Kurile ash bed record after the mid‐Pleistocene Transition contrasts with the dominant 100 kyr signal in the benthic δ18O global ice volume variability, which may either reflect limitations of the ash bed record or an regional rather than global influence of ice volume variability. Our results indicate that climate influences the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism, which may influence climate only by feedback. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic ash and dust produced during catastrophic explosive volcanic eruptions, such as those of Mount Pinatubo or El Chichón, can cause short‐term global cooling on the scale of a few years. It has long been speculated whether the Earth's long‐term cooling over the past few million years has been augmented by an increase in explosive volcanism about 2.58 million years ago. In order to investigate causal links between the climate evolution and volcanism during the past 4 million years, we obtained a time‐precise and temporally highly resolved record of the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism from the centimeter‐thick ash beds that were embedded in marine sediments after large eruptions downwind the volcanic sources. When the ash bed record is compared to climate evolution, it clearly shows that explosive volcanic eruptions—regardless of their short‐term effects—do not contribute directly to the long‐term global cooling. Instead, the variations of the Earth's powerful climate system modulate these explosive volcanic eruptions, as the periodic waxing and waning of the large ice shields affect the magma‐producing systems deep in the Earth's interior. However, climate‐active gases and particles produced during periods with more vigorous arc volcanism may still enhance the ice cycles. Key Points: Marine fallout ash beds record cyclicity and acceleration of the Plio‐Pleistocene (0–4 Myr) explosive Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanismAsh bed cyclicity correlates with the obliquity and precession variance of the global ice volumeClimate, and not direct orbital forcing, modulates the Plio‐Pleistocene volcanicity of the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate warming and frequent extreme low-temperature events have made it essential to investigate the impact of low temperatures on parasitic wasps to protect and strengthen farmland biodiversity, which in turn enhances the biological control potential of natural enemies such as parasitic wasps. We systematically examined how low-temperature stress affects the parasitic functional response of Trichopria drosophilae to Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) pupae. Our findings indicate that the parasitic behavior of T. drosophilae towards D. suzukii pupae aligns with the Holling II functional response model following exposure to different temperatures. Within the temperature range of 8 °C to −8 °C, lower temperatures correlated decreased instantaneous attack rate of T. drosophilae and an increase in processing time. The search constant Q initially increased and then decreased with declining temperatures. Short-term low-temperature stress negatively impacted the parasitic and searching abilities of T. drosophilae but did not alter its parasitic functional response model. Notably, short-term low-temperature stress had minimal effects on the water content, protein content, and total sugar content of male and female T. drosophilae adults. However, as temperatures decreased, the activities of key enzymes, including GAPDH, SOD, T-AOC, and malondialdehyde (MDA), exhibited an initial increase followed by a decrease. Conversely, the activities of LDH and HOAD decreased, while the activities of CAT and POD increased. Further study on the effect of short-term low temperature on T. drosophilae can provide a research basis for the large-scale production and low-temperature refrigeration technology of T. drosophilae , and provide a scientific basis for its efficient use in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present‐day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom‐up (data‐driven upscaling and process‐based models) and top‐down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom‐up approaches estimate higher land‐to‐atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom‐up and top‐down approaches show a sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (bottom‐up: −29 (−709, 455), top‐down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO2‐C yr−1) and sources of CH4 (bottom‐up: 38 (22, 53), top‐down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4‐C yr−1) and N2O (bottom‐up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top‐down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O‐N yr−1). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP‐100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP‐20), the region is a net GHG source because CH4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO2 emissions as well as CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process‐based models and the compilation of process‐model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom‐up and top‐down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well‐distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques. Plain Language Summary: The northern permafrost region covers large areas and stores very large amounts of carbon and nitrogen in soils and sediments. With climate change, there is concern that thawing permafrost will release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, shifting the region from long‐term cooling of the global climate to a net warming effect. In this study, we used different techniques to assess the greenhouse gas budgets of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide for the time period 2000‒2020. We find that the region is a net sink of carbon dioxide, mainly in boreal forests and wetlands, while carbon dioxide is emitted from inland waters and fires affecting both forest and tundra. Lakes and wetlands are strong sources of methane, which contributes to warm the climate significantly, especially over shorter timescales. Nitrous oxide is emitted at low rates across the region, with a relatively limited impact on climate. In summary, the climate warming from the northern permafrost region is likely close to neutral when calculated over a 100 years time window, but it warms the climate when calculated over a 20 years time window. Key Points: The northern terrestrial permafrost region was a weak annual CO2 sink and stable source of CH4 and N2O during the time period 2000–2020The global warming potential is indistinguishable from neutral over a 100 years time period but a net source of warming over a 20 year periodBottom‐up and top‐down methods yield different magnitudes of estimates that cannot be fully reconciled [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding deep-time marine biodiversity change under the combined effects of climate and connectivity changes is fundamental for predicting the impacts of modern climate change in semi-enclosed seas. We quantify the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene [11.63 to 3.6 million years (Ma)] taxonomic diversity of the Mediterranean Sea for calcareous nannoplankton, dinocysts, foraminifera, ostracods, corals, molluscs, bryozoans, echinoids, fishes, and marine mammals. During this time, marine biota was affected by global climate cooling and the restriction of the Mediterranean's connection to the Atlantic Ocean that peaked with the Messinian salinity crisis. Although the net change in species richness from the Tortonian to the Zanclean varies by group, species turnover is greater than 30% in all cases, reflecting a high degree of reorganization of the marine ecosystem after the crisis. The results show a clear perturbation already in the pre-evaporitic Messinian (7.25 to 5.97 Ma), with patterns differing among groups and subbasins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Bottom currents play a major role in deep‐sea sedimentation, but their significance in the burial of organic carbon is poorly quantified at a global scale. Here we show that Holocene fluxes of organic carbon into the contourite drifts are high, with a global average of 0.09 g cm−2 Kyr−1. At individual drift sites, fluxes are commonly 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than rates in surrounding areas and in global depth‐similar zones. These high fluxes of organic carbon into the contourite drifts are due to high rates of sedimentation. Over the past 50 million years, sedimentation rates at the studied contourite drift sites have overall increased, coincident with decreasing atmospheric CO2 and a cooling global climate. Our work suggests that a ramp‐up of the bottom‐current carbon pump has accelerated removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and oceanic water, thus contributing to the overall global cooling after the Eocene Thermal Maximum. Plain Language Summary: Bottom currents play a major role in deep‐sea sedimentation, but their significance in the burial of organic carbon is poorly quantified at a global scale. Here we examine data from modern contourite drifts (large‐scale, alongslope‐trending bottom‐current deposits) across the globe and show modern fluxes of organic carbon into the drifts are high, with a global average of 0.09 g cm−2 Kyr−1. At individual drift sites, fluxes are commonly 1 to 2 orders of magnitude greater than rates in surrounding areas and in global depth‐similar zones. These high fluxes of organic carbon into the drifts are due to high rates of sedimentation in these deepwater environments, which are driven primarily by vigorous bottom currents—in other words, by a bottom‐current pump that is highly efficient at burying organic carbon. Our work suggests that a ramp‐up of the bottom‐current carbon pump, attributable to progressive intensification of global ocean circulation over the past 50 million years, has accelerated removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and oceanic water, thus contributing to the global cooling after the Eocene Thermal Maximum. Sedimentary records of past organic carbon fluxes in contourite drifts over geologic time could well prove useful in informing predictions of future climate. Key Points: Modern fluxes of organic carbon into the contourite drifts are high, with a global average of 0.09 g cm−2 Kyr−1The fluxes into the drifts are commonly 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than rates in surrounding areas and in global depth‐similar zonesOver the past 50 million years, the bottom‐current pump has accelerated removal of carbon from the oceanic water [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Persicaria amphibia complex exhibits significant morphological variation depending on its habitat, existing in either aquatic or terrestrial forms. Traditionally, four distinct elements have been recognized based on morphological features along with their distinct geographical distributions. Recent studies suggest that the Asian element may be genetically distinct from the European and American elements. However, a comprehensive study on the genetic differentiation among all four elements remains lacking. This study aimed to leverage whole plastid genome sequences and ITS2 haplotypes to comprehensively assess the genomic diversity within the P. amphibia complex. Notably, we included multiple individuals from New York State to resolve the ongoing debate regarding the taxonomic status of two American elements - whether they represent a single species or distinct entities. Our analysis revealed a well-supported monophyletic clade encompassing all four elements, endorsing their own section, Amphibia. Notably, the terrestrial form of the American element is sister to all other elements, suggesting it deserves its own species status. This reinstates its historical name, P. coccinea, separating it from the broader P. amphibia. Furthermore, distinct compositions of the ITS2 haplotypes differentiated the four elements, although the European element should be further investigated with more sampling. The most intriguing discovery is the identification of putative hybrids between the two American elements. In one population out of four putative hybrid populations, all three entities - the two parent species and their hybrid offspring - thrive together, showcasing a fascinating microcosm of ongoing evolutionary processes. Unraveling the intricate genetic tapestry within each American species and their hybrid populations remains a compelling next step. By delving deeper into their genetic makeup, we can gain a richer understanding of their evolutionary trajectories and the intricacies of their interactions. Finally, it is estimated that the two species of sect. Amphibia diverged approximately 4.02 million years ago during the Pliocene epoch, when there was a significant global cooling and drying trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The functioning of the Pacific Ocean—the world's largest ocean—during a warmer‐than‐present paleoclimate state remains underexplored. We present planktonic and benthic foraminiferal stable oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1334 that span the Oligocene‐Miocene Transition (OMT) interval, from 24.15 to 21.95 million years ago (Ma). We reconstruct (sub‐)surface and deep‐water conditions and provide better constraints on the physical and chemical oceanography of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (EEP). Positive trends in planktonic and benthic foraminiferal δ18O values, mark a largely uniform imprint of increased land‐ice volume/global cooling on surface‐ and deep‐waters. We document a delayed planktonic foraminiferal δ18O increase across the OMT as well as an increase in the amplitude variability of planktonic foraminiferal δ18O values on eccentricity timescales during the early Miocene. We interpret this as an enhanced glacioeustatic sea‐level control on Atlantic‐Pacific salinity exchange through the Central American Seaway (CAS) or as the onset of more variable surface currents and oceanic fronts in the EEP. Positive trends in planktonic and benthic foraminiferal δ13C values characterize the whole‐ocean depletion in 12C linked to organic carbon burial during the Oligocene‐Miocene carbon maximum (CM‐OM). However, this depletion is more pronounced in the planktonic foraminiferal δ13C record, especially during ∼400 Kyr eccentricity minima, reflecting an increase in nutrient upwelling and the efficacy of the biological carbon pump (BCP) when global temperatures decreased across the OMT and during the early Miocene. Our study highlights the dynamic behavior of the EEP in a warmer‐than‐present unipolar icehouse state. Plain Language Summary: Twenty‐three million years ago, climatic conditions on Earth were warmer than today, there was a large ice sheet on Antarctica, but, unlike today, not on Greenland. Furthermore, the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans were still connected with a seaway that ran in‐between North and South America. This seaway governed the equatorial transport of heat, salt, and nutrients between the two oceans. To better understand the role of the eastern Pacific Ocean in causing and responding to climatic change at this time, we analyzed the chemical composition of foraminifera shells, single celled organisms that lived in the surface and deep waters and at the seafloor. By comparing surface‐ to deep‐water chemistry results, namely oxygen and carbon isotopes, we attempt to reconstruct the chemical and physical structure of the water column. We interpret that the eastern Pacific surface ocean was saltier at times when Atlantic waters were flowing westward. Furthermore, we find an increase in productivity in the equatorial Pacific surface ocean when climate cooled. Key Points: Positive trends mark Oligo‐Miocene planktonic and benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope records from the east Pacific OceanSurface currents and oceanic exchange through the Central American Seaway influenced surface ocean salinityEccentricity‐paced primary productivity variability determined strength of the biological carbon pump [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trade winds cause strong upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and create the eastern Pacific Cold Tongue (EPCT) that has far‐reaching impacts on global climate. However, large discrepancies persist in quantifying 20th‐century EPCT sea surface temperature (SST) changes across different instrumental data sets. Here we synthesize four coral Sr/Ca‐SST records from the tropical central‐eastern Pacific to develop a Cold Tongue Index (CTI) reconstruction for 1887–1997. The coral CTI record shows a rapid 20th century warming of the EPCT, suggesting an underestimation of warming trends in instrumental CTI records. The decadal to multidecadal changes in reconstructed EPCT SST show an association with the Walker Circulation. Our reconstruction indicates that recent EPCT cooling during the global warming hiatus is not unusual in the context of the 20th century. Our results provide new evidence for 20th century EPCT SST changes and an observational constraint for predicting future tropical climate changes. Plain Language Summary: The tropical Pacific exhibits an asymmetric pattern of sea surface temperatures (SST) along the equator, with a warm pool in the west and a cold tongue in the east. The Eastern Pacific Cold Tongue (EPCT) plays a crucial role in influencing global climate. To date, however, considerable disagreement persists about changes and causes of the EPCT SST over the 20th century due to the sparse instrumental observations before ∼1960. Here we synthesize published coral Sr/Ca‐SST records from the tropical central‐eastern Pacific to develop a coral Cold Tongue Index (CTIcoral) for the period 1887–1997. The CTIcoral record correlates significantly with instrumental data since 1960, and thus allows reliable assessment of 20th century EPCT SST changes. Our record exhibits a rapid 20th century warming trend of the EPCT, indicating an underestimation of warming trends in instrumental CTI records. The decadal to multidecadal changes in CTIcoral also show an association with the Walker Circulation. Comparing the magnitude of the 1992–2011 trend in instrumental CTI with our reconstruction reveals that recent EPCT cooling during the global warming hiatus is not anomalous in the context of 20th century. Our findings have implications for predicting future EPCT SST changes by offering a constraint for model simulations. Key Points: Synthesizing coral Sr/Ca‐SST records yields robust estimates of 20th century warming trend in the eastern Pacific Cold Tongue (EPCT)A coral‐based reconstruction indicates an underestimation of 20th century EPCT warming trends in instrumental SST recordsRecent EPCT cooling during the global warming hiatus is not anomalous in the context of the 20th century [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal hindcasts have previously been demonstrated to show multi‐decadal variability in skill across the twentieth century in indices describing El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives global seasonal predictability. Here, we analyze the skill of predicting ENSO events' magnitude and spatial pattern, in the CSF‐20C coupled seasonal hindcasts in 1901–2010. We find minima in the skill of predicting the first (in 1930–1950) and second (in 1940–1960) principal components of sea‐surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. This minimum is also present in the spatial correlation of SSTs, in 1930–1960. The skill reduction is explained by lower ENSO magnitude and variance in 1930–1960, as well as decreased SST persistence. The SST skill minima project onto surface winds, leading to worse predictions in coupled hindcasts compared to hindcasts using prescribed SSTs. Questions remain about the offset between the first and second principal components' skill minima, and how the skill minima impact the extra‐tropics. Plain Language Summary: Seasonal forecasts use slowly changing elements of the climate system to predict average weather and climate several months ahead, and have applications across the energy, agriculture, and insurance industries. The most important signal is El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean temperature pattern in the tropical Pacific which varies between warm and cold phases every 2–7 years. ENSO's specific pattern, including how warm/cold it is compared to normal, and where heating/cooling is concentrated, influences global weather. Seasonal forecasting models are tested by running 'reforecasts': comparing a 'forecast' of the past with observations. In this study, we investigate how skilfully reforecasts from a state‐of‐the‐art seasonal forecasting model reproduce observations, for sea‐surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (where ENSO occurs). We analyze reforecast skill in every Northern Hemisphere winter from 1901 to 2010 and find periods of high skill at the start and end of the century, with reduced skill in 1930–1960. This was likely caused by a reduction in the size of ENSO events, and decreased sea‐surface temperature memory. This reduction in ocean skill leads to lower skill for surface‐level winds. These results are important for understanding whether season‐ahead predictability changes over decades/centuries, and how climate change might impact this predictability. Key Points: The skill of predicting the spatial pattern of ENSO events in coupled seasonal hindcasts is low in 1930–1960, compared to before and afterThe skill minimum is attributable to lower ENSO variability and decreased SST persistence in the mid‐century periodDecreased skill in the SST spatial pattern is linked to decreased surface wind skill in coupled hindcasts (vs. atmosphere‐only hindcasts) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many uncertainties in future climate, including how the Earth may react to different types of radiative forcing, such as CO2, aerosols, and even geoengineered changes in the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth's surface. Here, we analyze model simulations where the climate system is subjected to an abrupt change of the solar constant by ±4%, and where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly changed to quadruple and half its preindustrial value. Using these experiments, we examine how clouds respond to changes in solar forcing, compared to CO2, and feedback on global surface temperature. The total cloud response can be decomposed into those responses driven by changes in global surface temperature, called the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks, and responses driven directly by the forcing that are independent of the global surface temperature. In this paper, we study the temperature mediated cloud changes to answer two primary questions: (a) How do temperature mediated cloud feedbacks differ in response to abrupt changes in CO2 and solar forcing? And (b) Are there symmetrical (equal and opposite) temperature mediated cloud feedbacks during global warming and global cooling? We find that temperature mediated cloud feedbacks are similar in response to increasing solar and increasing CO2 forcing, and we provide a short review of recent literature regarding the physical mechanisms responsible for these feedbacks. We also find that cloud responses to warming and cooling are not symmetric, due largely to non‐linearity introduced by phase changes in mid‐to‐high latitude low clouds and sea ice loss/formation. Plain Language Summary: As the global mean temperature changes, there are changes in cloud amount, location, and thickness, which can all impact the radiative balance of the Earth. Cloud changes driven directly by global temperature change are called temperature mediated cloud feedbacks. In this paper, we study the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks that occur in model simulations where the amount of sunlight incident upon the Earth is increased or decreased abruptly, and then held constant for 150 years. We compare the cloud changes in these experiments with experiments where the CO2 concentration is similarly increased or decreased abruptly and held constant for 150 years. In doing so we find that the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks following abrupt changes in solar radiation are characteristically similar to those occurring following CO2 increase. There are however substantial differences in the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks that occur while the climate is warming versus cooling. Key Points: The temperature mediated cloud changes and feedbacks incurred by changes in solar and CO2 forcing are similarOptical depth changes at high latitudes produce substantial differences in cloud feedbacks in cooling and warming experimentsLikewise, tropical circulations respond differently in models to cooling and warming, with a stronger change in the Walker circulation in warming experiments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns. Plain Language Summary: When comparing model simulations of Earth's recent warming to real‐world observations, differences may arise from several factors. Two important factors are the model errors in the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, and natural fluctuations within the climate system that produced discrepancies between observations and models. Thus, quantifying the role of these natural fluctuations is important for the assessment of model‐observation differences. Previous studies have shown that natural climate variability has depressed global warming and enhanced Arctic warming. By compositing the multi‐decadal trend patterns from CMIP6 simulations in which natural variability warms the Arctic but has a global cooling effect, we find that the majority of these model simulations also produce enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Seas and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean due to natural variability. Since these are the exact features imprinted on observed surface temperature changes over 1980–2022, our work suggests that natural variability is an important component of several noteworthy differences between models and observations. Key Points: Internal variability has enhanced Arctic warming but suppressed global warming over 1980–2022This manifestation of internal variability is rare in model simulations but has a robust global surface air temperature (SAT) trend patternThis internal SAT pattern features warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling of the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in effective radiative forcing (ERF) during the historical period and, by extension, inferred climate sensitivity. The ERF due to ACI (ERFaci) is composed of the radiative forcing due to changes in cloud microphysics and cloud adjustments to microphysics. Here, we examine the processes that drive ERFaci using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in CAM6. Observational constraints on the PPE result in substantial constraints in the response of cloud microphysics and macrophysics to anthropogenic aerosol, but only minimal constraint on ERFaci. Examination of cloud and radiation processes in the PPE reveal buffering of ERFaci by the interaction of precipitation efficiency and radiative susceptibility. Plain Language Summary: Uncertainty in predicting future global temperature inferred from the historical record of warming is dominated by how much the warming due to greenhouse gases has been offset by the cooling due to aerosols. Aerosols are small liquid and solid particles that play an important role in cloud formation. The majority of cooling from aerosols is through reflecting incoming solar radiation back to space by cloud. In this study, we constrain an ensemble of possible global model configurations with observations of cloud properties and radiation to reduce uncertainty in the response of clouds and ultimately radiation to anthropogenic aerosol. While observations substantially reduce the uncertainty in both changes in the number of droplets and amount of liquid cloud, the constraint on aerosol cooling is minimal. We argue that the relatively weak constraint is because large changes in cloudiness are accompanied by small change in reflected sunlight due to increased cloudiness. Key Points: Models with lower precipitation efficiency result in larger mean‐state liquid water path (LWP) and larger adjustments in LWP to aerosolLarger mean‐state LWP coincides with lower albedo susceptibility to LWPThe combination of these processes results in buffering of the radiative effect of LWP adjustments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reflectance spectroscopy is rapid, inexpensive, and non-destructive and can provide important information about the mineralogy of rocks and sediments. We measured the reflectance spectroscopy of Miocene red clay deposits on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, with the aim of developing a rapid methodology for detecting paleoclimatic changes. We obtained visible/near-infrared (VNIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR) spectroscopy data from the red clay in the Jianzha Basin, and analyzed their relationship with independent paleoclimatic records, including mineral contents and environmental magnetic parameters. The results show that the VNIR parameters, including D500, D900, R500, and R900 (where D and R represent the depth and reflectance of the absorption peaks around 500 and 900 nm, respectively) are temperature-sensitive and correlated with the magnetic susceptibility, frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility, and the marine δ18O record. The results of frequency-domain analysis of the VNIR parameters show that they reflect climate change on orbital timescales. SWIR parameters, such as AS1400, D1400/D1900 and D1900 (where AS represents the asymmetry of the absorption peaks around 1400 nm), are correlated with the illite and montmorillonite content, and they are sensitive to the weathering intensity. The spectral parameters of the eolian red clay in the Jianzha Basin reflect regional climatic changes caused by the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau at ∼8.5 Ma and global climatic cooling at ∼7.2 Ma, and thus they are applicable as both regional and global paleoenvironmental indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Soriculus is currently recognized as monotypic, containing only one species, Soriculus nigrescens , which is distributed mainly in the Himalayas and the southern Hengduan Mountains. The taxonomy of Soriculus is ambiguous due to insufficient taxonomic sampling. We conducted extensive surveys of Soriculus across the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. We sequenced two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes, and the complete mitochondrial genomes of several selected specimens to infer the phylogenetic relationships of Soriculus and also analysed their morphological and morphometric variations. Our results indicate monophyly of Soriculus , and the diversity of the genus is greatly underestimated. We described two new species, Soriculus nivatus sp. nov. and Soriculus medogensis sp. nov. , and elevated S. minor as a distinct species. Additionally, we found another putative new species of Soriculus in Medog County; however, we did not formally describe it because only one specimen was collected. Divergence time estimates suggest that the global cooling and desiccating events around the Miocene/Pliocene and Pliocene/Pleistocene boundaries and the Pleistocene climatic oscillations may have played major roles in the diversification of Soriculus. Our results highlight the overlooked diversity of small mammals in the eastern Himalayas, which warrants further surveys and taxonomic studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) can influence surface temperature through local and nonlocal biophysical processes, which remain inadequately addressed. In this study, we separate the local and nonlocal effects of historical (1850–2014) LULCCs based on model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We also attempt to explore the sources of intermodel differences in the effects of LULCCs. The multimodel mean shows a cooling effect of −0.05°C (with an intermodel range of −0.24–0.06°C) at the global scale due to cropland and pastureland expansion, consisting of dominant nonlocal cooling of −0.06°C (with an intermodel range of −0.26–0.06°C) and slight local warming of 0.01°C (with an intermodel range of −0.01–0.05°C). The modeling results show some clear consistency in the effects of LULCCs despite considerable intermodel uncertainties. The local effects cause warming at low latitudes and cooling in boreal regions via changes in upward shortwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. The nonlocal effects mainly cause cooling via decreases in downward longwave radiation and increases in upward shortwave radiation. Intermodel differences in the total effects are dominated by those in the nonlocal effects, which are further attributed to divergent changes in downward longwave radiation and sensible heat flux across the models. This study highlights the importance of the nonlocal effects of LULCCs in terms of strength and intermodel uncertainty, with implications for designing land‐based solutions aimed at climate change mitigation. Plain Language Summary: Land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) can alter surface properties and thereby influence surface temperature through land–atmosphere interactions. LULCCs influence the climate not only at the location of LULCCs (local effects) but also elsewhere (nonlocal effects) through atmospheric and oceanic feedbacks. However, the local and nonlocal effects of realistic LULCCs still lack explicit investigation. In this study, we quantify the local and nonlocal effects of historical (1850–2014) LULCCs and their intermodel differences based on a set of simulations from four earth system models. The multimodel mean suggests that historical cropland and pastureland expansion has caused a nonlocal cooling effect of −0.06°C and a local warming effect of 0.01°C, creating a net cooling effect of −0.05°C at the global scale. The local and nonlocal effects of LULCCs can be attributed to changes in surface fluxes and atmospheric feedbacks, whereas the strength and sign vary substantially across the models. Large intermodel differences in the total effects of LULCCs mostly result from those in the nonlocal effects. This study highlights the importance of the nonlocal effects of LULCCs and has implications for developing land‐use strategies aimed at climate change mitigation. Key Points: The local and nonlocal biophysical effects of historical land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are investigated using CMIP6 modelsThe multimodel mean shows that, overall, historical LULCCs cool the land surface through nonlocal processesThe intermodel divergence in the total effects of historical LULCCs mainly results from low intermodel agreement on the nonlocal effects [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Increasing studies suggest that the biased retention of stress‐related transcription factors (TFs) after whole‐genome duplications (WGDs) could rewire gene transcriptional networks, facilitating plant adaptation to challenging environments. However, the role of posttranscriptional factors (e.g. RNA‐binding proteins, RBPs) following WGDs has been largely ignored.Uncovering thousands of RBPs in 21 representative angiosperm species, we integrate genomic, transcriptomic, regulatomic, and paleotemperature datasets to unravel their evolutionary trajectories and roles in adapting to challenging environments.We reveal functional enrichments of RBP genes in stress responses and identify their convergent retention across diverse angiosperms from independent WGDs, coinciding with global cooling periods. Numerous RBP duplicates derived from WGDs are then identified as cold‐induced. A significant overlap of 29 orthogroups between WGD‐derived and cold‐induced RBP genes across diverse angiosperms highlights a correlation between WGD and cold stress. Notably, we unveil an orthogroup (Glycine‐rich RNA‐binding Proteins 7/8, GRP7/8) and relevant TF duplicates (CCA1/LHY, RVE4/8, CBF2/4, etc.), co‐retained in different angiosperms post‐WGDs. Finally, we illustrate their roles in rewiring circadian and cold‐regulatory networks at both transcriptional and posttranscriptional levels during global cooling.Altogether, we underline the adaptive evolution of RBPs in angiosperms after WGDs during global cooling, improving our understanding of plants surviving periods of environmental turmoil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The calcareous nannofossil genus Reticulofenestra and its related taxa are called "reticulofenestrids," and they were one of themajor nannofossil groups during the Cenozoic. The reticulofenestrid specimens are composed of two shields, proximal and distal, which are circular or subcircular in shape and consist of tiny calcite plates. Cyclic changes in the size and shape of reticulofenestrid coccoliths have been used to characterize their evolution. The major taxonomic turnover in this group was related to environmental changes during the Cenozoic. From the Oligocene to the Miocene, there were several different types of reticulofenestrids. The primary taxon of reticulofenestrids disappeared during the Oligocene-Miocene boundary, and elliptical species emerged during the early Miocene. However, it is uncertain exactly when and how the change in reticulofenestrids occurred. To understand the evolutionary trends of reticulofenestrids, we conducted biometric analyses from the Oligocene to the Miocene. Detailed observation and measurement of reticulofenestrid coccoliths under a scanning electron microscope revealed a significant size reduction in the group near the Oligocene--Miocene, which corresponds to a period of rapid global cooling. Furthermore, regarding the reticulofenestrid taxa in this study, central structures characterize the Oligocene genus Dictyococcites, and the long axis length of the coccolith outline and central areas can be effective characteristics for distinguishing between theMiocene Cyclicargolithus and Reticulofenestra. These results suggest that morphological differences of reticulofenestrids are expressed not only in the shape and size of the coccolith but also in the size and shape of its central area [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent paleoclimatic research has revealed that volcanic events around 536–540 AD caused severe, short-term global cooling. For this same period, archeological research from various regions evidences significant cultural transformation. However, there is still a lack of understanding of how human societies responded and adapted to extreme climate variability and new circumstances. This study focuses on the effects of the 536/540 AD volcanic event in four Scandinavian regions by exploring the shift in demographic and land use intensity before, during, and after this abrupt climate cooling. To achieve this, we performed climate simulations with and without volcanic eruptions using a dynamically downscaled climate model (iLOVECLIM) at a high resolution (0.25° or ~25 km). We integrated the findings with a comprehensive collection of radiocarbon dates from excavated archeological sites across various Scandinavian regions. Our Earth System Model simulates pronounced cooling (maximum ensemble mean −1.1°C), an abrupt reduction in precipitation, and a particularly acute drop in growing degree days (GDD0) after the volcanic event, which can be used to infer likely impacts on agricultural productivity. When compared to the archeological record, we see considerable regional diversity in the societal response to this sudden environmental event. As a result, this study provides a more comprehensive insight into the demographic chronology of Scandinavia and a deeper understanding of the land-use practices its societies depended on during the 536/540 AD event. Our results suggest that this abrupt climate anomaly amplified a social change already in progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The composition of soil dust aerosols derives from the mineral abundances in the parent soils that vary across dust source regions. Nonetheless, Earth system models (ESMs) have traditionally represented mineral dust as a globally homogeneous species. The growing interest in modeling dust mineralogy, facilitated by the recognized sensitivity of the dust climate impacts to composition, has motivated state-of-the-art ESMs to incorporate the mineral speciation of dust along with its effect upon the dust direct radiative effect (DRE). In this work, we enable the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2.1 to calculate the shortwave (SW) DRE accounting for the regionally varying soil mineralogy. Mineral–radiation interaction at solar wavelengths is calculated according to two alternative coupling schemes: (1) external mixing of three mineral components that are optically distinguished, one of which contains embedded iron oxides; (2) a single internal mixture of all dust minerals with a dynamic fraction of iron oxides that varies regionally and temporally. We link dust absorption to the fractional mass of iron oxides based on recent chamber measurements using natural dust aerosol samples. We show that coupled mineralogy overall enhances the scattering by dust, and thus the global cooling, compared to our control run with globally uniform composition. According to the external mixing scheme, the SW DRE at the top of atmosphere (TOA) changes from -0.25 to -0.30Wm-2 , corresponding to a change in the net DRE, including the longwave effect, from -0.08 to -0.12Wm-2. The cooling increase is accentuated when the internal mixing scheme is configured: the SW DRE at the TOA becomes -0.34Wm-2 with a net DRE of -0.15Wm-2. The varying composition modifies the regional distribution of single scattering albedo (SSA), whose variations in specific regions can be remarkable (above 0.03) and significantly modify the regional SW DRE. Evaluation against the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) shows that explicit representation of soil mineralogy and its regional variations reduces the low bias of model dust SSA while improving the range of variability across stations and calendar months. Despite these improvements, the moderate spatiotemporal correlation with AERONET reveals remaining modeling challenges and the need for more accurate measurements of mineral fractions in soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the mechanisms underlying the varied climate changes witnessed during mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic Eon. Climate shifts during mass extinctions have manifested as either predominant global cooling or predominant warming, yet the causes behind these occurrences remain unclear. We emphasize the significance of sedimentary rock temperature in comprehending these climate shifts. Our research reveals that low-temperature heating of sulfide leads to global cooling through the release of sulfur dioxide (SO2), while intermediate-temperature heating of hydrocarbons and carbonates releases substantial carbon dioxide (CO2), contributing to global warming. High-temperature heating additionally generates SO2 from sulfate, further contributing to global cooling. Different degrees of contact heating of the host rock can lead to different dominant volatile gas emissions, crucially driving either warming or cooling. Moreover, medium to high-temperature shock-heating resulting from asteroid impacts produces soot from hydrocarbons, also contributing to global cooling. Large-scale volcanic activity and asteroid impacts are both events that heat rocks, emitting the same gases and particles, causing climate changes. The findings elucidate the critical role of heating temperature and heating time in understanding major climate changes during mass extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent analyses show the importance of methane shortwave absorption, which many climate models lack. In particular, Allen et al. (2023) used idealized climate model simulations to show that methane shortwave absorption mutes up to 30 % of the surface warming and 60 % of the precipitation increase associated with its longwave radiative effects. Here, we explicitly quantify the radiative and climate impacts due to shortwave absorption of the present-day methane perturbation using the Community Earth System Model version 2. Our results corroborate that present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes the warming and wetting effects of longwave absorption. For example, the global mean cooling in response to the present-day methane shortwave absorption is -0.10 ± 0.04 K, which offsets 29 % of the surface warming associated with present-day methane longwave radiative effects. Similarly, we explicitly estimate 66 % of the precipitation increase associated with the longwave radiative effects of the present-day methane perturbation is offset by shortwave absorption. Unlike other solar absorbers (i.e., black carbon), the decrease in global mean precipitation under methane shortwave absorption is driven by both fast (atmospheric absorption) and slow (surface temperature cooling) responses. Finally, we show that the present-day methane shortwave radiative effects, relative to its longwave radiative effects, are about five times larger as compared to those under idealized carbon dioxide perturbations. The unique responses to methane shortwave absorption are related to its vertical atmospheric solar heating profile. Methane remains a potent greenhouse gas and continued endeavors to decrease methane emissions are necessary to stay below the 1.5 °C global warming threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The composition and geological evolution of pre-Cryogenian material in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas have played an important role in studying the formation and evolution of early supercontinents on Earth. This paper systematically summarizes the characteristics of pre-Cryogenian sedimentation, paleontology, magmatism, and metamorphism in the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas. Based on existing data, the records of pre-Cryogenian sedimentation and paleontology are mainly concentrated in the Meso–Neoproterozoic, with relatively few records from the Paleoproterozoic or earlier. The oldest geological record is the Hadean detrital zircons in the metamorphosed sedimentary rocks of the Himalaya and Qamdo areas (ca. 4.0 Ga). The Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas preserve records related to the formation and evolution of the Kenor supercraton, and the Columbia, Rodinia, and Gondwana supercontinents. Pre-Cryogenian basements can be divided into three types: Tarim-, Yangtze-, and Lhasa-type. The Tarim-type basement has a paleogeographic affinity with the northern margins of the Australian and Indian continents and lacks detrital zircon age peaks and magmatic-metamorphic records related to the Rodinia assembly (ca. 1.3–0.9 Ga). The Yangtze-type basement records volcanic activity related to global cooling in the latest pre-Cryogenian period and contains Meso–Neoproterozoic stromatolite and micropaleoflora fossils, as well as magmatic-metamorphic records related to Rodinia assembly (ca. 1.1–1.0 Ga). The Lhasa-type basement is characterized by Neoproterozoic rift-related sediment records (ca. 900 Ma) and high-pressure metamorphic events (ca. 650 Ma), with a prominent peak of detrital zircon ages of ca. 1.2–1.1 Ga. It is likely to have a paleogeographic affinity with the African continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vertebrate‐mediated seed dispersal is a common attribute of many living plants, and variation in the size and abundance of fleshy diaspores is influenced by regional climate and by the nature of vertebrate seed dispersers among present‐day floras. However, potential drivers of large‐scale variation in the abundance and size distributions of fleshy diaspores through geological time, and the importance of geographic variation, are incompletely known. This knowledge gap is important because fleshy diaspores are a key mechanism of energy transfer from photosynthesis to animals and may in part explain the diversification of major groups within birds and mammals. Various hypotheses have been proposed to explain variation in the abundance and size distribution of fleshy diaspores through time, including plant–frugivore co‐evolution, angiosperm diversification, and changes in vegetational structure and climate. We present a new data set of more than 800 georeferenced fossil diaspore occurrences spanning the Triassic–Oligocene, across low to mid‐ to high palaeolatitudes. We use this to quantify patterns of long‐term change in fleshy diaspores, examining the timing and geographical context of important shifts as a test of the potential evolutionary and climatic explanations. We find that the fleshy fruit sizes of angiosperms increased for much of the Cretaceous, during the early diversification of angiosperms from herbaceous ancestors with small fruits. Nevertheless, this did not cause a substantial net change in the fleshy diaspore size distributions across seed plants, because gymnosperms had achieved a similar size distribution by at least the Late Triassic. Furthermore, gymnosperm‐dominated Mesozoic ecosystems were mostly open, and harboured low proportions of specialised frugivores until the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that changes in vegetation structure and plant–frugivore co‐evolution were probably not important drivers of fleshy diaspore size distributions over long timescales. Instead, fleshy diaspore size distributions may be largely constrained by physical or life‐history limits that are shared among groups and diversify as a plant group expands into different growth forms/sizes, habitats, and climate regimes. Mesozoic gymnosperm floras had a low abundance of fleshy diaspores (<50% fleshy diaspore taxa), that was surpassed by some low‐latitude angiosperm floras in the Cretaceous. Eocene angiosperm floras show a mid‐ to high latitude peak in fleshy fruit abundance, with very high proportions of fleshy fruits that even exceed those seen at low latitudes both in the Eocene and today. Mid‐ to high latitude proportions of fleshy fruits declined substantially over the Eocene–Oligocene transition, resulting in a shift to more modern‐like geographic distributions with the highest proportion of fleshy fruits occurring in low‐latitude tropical assemblages. This shift was coincident with global cooling and the onset of Southern Hemisphere glaciation, suggesting that rapid cooling at mid‐ and high latitudes caused a decrease in availability of the climate conditions most favourable for fleshy fruits in angiosperms. Future research could be focused on examining the environmental niches of modern fleshy fruits, and the potential effects of climate change on fleshy fruit and frugivore diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Expansion and contraction of inverted repeats can cause considerable variation of plastid genomes (plastomes) in angiosperms. However, little is known about whether structural variations of plastomes are associated with adaptation to or occupancy of new environments. Moreover, adaptive evolution of angiosperm plastid genes remains poorly understood. Here, we sequenced the complete plastomes for four species of xerophytic Ceratocephala and hydrophytic Myosurus, as well as Ficaria verna. By an integration of phylogenomic, comparative genomic, and selection pressure analyses, we investigated evolutionary patterns of plastomes in Ranunculeae and their relationships with adaptation to dry and aquatic habitats. Results: Owing to the significant contraction of the boundary of IRA/LSC towards the IRA, plastome sizes and IR lengths of Myosurus and Ceratocephala are smaller within Ranunculeae. Compared to other Ranunculeae, the Myosurus plastome lost clpP and rps16, one copy of rpl2 and rpl23, and one intron of rpoC1 and rpl16, and the Ceratocephala plastome added an infA gene and lost one copy of rpl2 and two introns of clpP. A total of 11 plastid genes (14%) showed positive selection, two genes common to Myosurus and Ceratocephala, seven in Ceratocephala only, and two in Myosurus only. Four genes showed strong signals of episodic positive selection. The rps7 gene of Ceratocephala and the rpl32 and ycf4 genes of Myosurus showed an increase in the rate of variation close to 3.3 Ma. Conclusions: The plastomic structure variations as well as the positive selection of two plastid genes might be related to the colonization of new environments by the common ancestor of Ceratocephala and Myosurus. The seven and two genes under positive selection might be related to the adaptation to dry and aquatic habitats in Ceratocephala and Myosurus, respectively. Moreover, intensified aridity and frequent sea-level fluctuations, as well as global cooling, might have favored an increased rate of change in some genes at about 3.3 Ma, associated with adaptation to dry and aquatic environments, respectively. These findings suggest that changing environments might have influenced structural variations of plastomes and fixed new mutations arising on some plastid genes owing to adaptation to specific habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature is essential for the survival and development of eggs. Some anurans have evolved and developed foam nesting traits, with thermal insulation considered to be among their functions. Foam‐nesting frogs tend to exhibit reproductive plasticity. For example, they oviposit on both trees and the ground. How such plasticity affects foam nest function is of major relevance and is likely related to the adaptation of foam nesting frogs. However, this has not been well studied. In this study, we examined the interaction between foam nest site, foam nest function, and egg fate using the Japanese green tree frog, Zhangixalus arboreus, and analysed how nest site differences (arboreal or terrestrial) affect the thermal function of foam nests. We compared the thermal functions of foam nests between arboreal and terrestrial oviposition sites of Z. arboreus. We artificially replaced half of the arboreal nests with terrestrial environments and recorded temperature in and outside of the experimental terrestrial nest and original arboreal nests. We also examined egg survival and hatching rates for all the nests. The results indicated superior heat insulation in terrestrial nests, with warmer temperatures inside than outside the nests, especially at night, which led to a high egg survival rate. Therefore, terrestrial ovipositing should be valid under cold weather conditions. This may be related to the evolutionary history of oviposition site plasticity of this genus, which originally had an arboreal oviposition trait but evolved into terrestrial site use owing to global cooling. Our novel insights into the evolution and adaptivity of foam nesting and oviposition site use in Z. arboreus make an important contribution to animal ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) comes with a wide range of possible design choices, such as the location and timing of the injection. Different stratospheric aerosol injection strategies can yield different climate responses; therefore, understanding the range of possible climate outcomes is crucial to making informed future decisions on SAI, along with the consideration of other factors. Yet, to date, there has been no systematic exploration of a broad range of SAI strategies. This limits the ability to determine which effects are robust across different strategies and which depend on specific injection choices. This study systematically explores how the choice of SAI strategy affects climate responses in one climate model. Here, we introduce four hemispherically symmetric injection strategies, all of which are designed to maintain the same global mean surface temperature: an annual injection at the Equator (EQ), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 15° N and 15° S (15N + 15S), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 30° N and 30° S (30N + 30S), and a polar injection strategy that injects equal amounts of SO 2 at 60° N and 60° S only during spring in each hemisphere (60N + 60S). We compare these four hemispherically symmetric SAI strategies with a more complex injection strategy that injects different quantities of SO 2 at 30° N, 15° N, 15° S, and 30° S in order to maintain not only the global mean surface temperature but also its large-scale horizontal gradients. All five strategies are simulated using version 2 of the Community Earth System Model with the middle atmosphere version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate model, version 6, as the atmospheric component, CESM2(WACCM6-MA), with the global warming scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5. We find that the choice of SAI strategy affects the spatial distribution of aerosol optical depths, injection efficiency, and various surface climate responses. In addition, injecting in the subtropics produces more global cooling per unit injection, with the EQ and the 60N + 60S cases requiring, respectively, 59 % and 50 % more injection than the 30N + 30S case to meet the same global mean temperature target. Injecting at higher latitudes results in larger Equator-to-pole temperature gradients. While all five strategies restore Arctic September sea ice, the high-latitude injection strategy is more effective due to the SAI-induced cooling occurring preferentially at higher latitudes. These results suggest trade-offs wherein different strategies appear better or worse, depending on which metrics are deemed important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau is the highest plateau on Earth. As an ideal place to decipher the intracontinental deformation mechanisms, the Tibetan Plateau has become a focus of Cenozoic geological studies. The surface uplift history of the Tibetan Plateau can help us to better understand continental collision and processes ranging from global cooling to the onset of the Asian monsoon. Although a lot of research has been done over the years, the mechanism and timing of uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, especially the northern part, continue to be debated. To address how the Tibetan Plateau developed, a better understanding of the uplift and deformation history is needed. The Qiman Tagh Range lies on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Knowing what led to the exhumation of the Qiman Tagh Range could help us to constrain the tectonic evolution of the northern boundaries of the Tibetan Plateau. Here, we present new apatite fission-track data and the thermal history for the north Qiman Tagh Range. The thermal history modeling indicates that the Qiman Tagh Range experienced a four-stage cooling history (i.e., at ca. 230 Ma, 130-90 Ma, ca. 35 Ma, and 20/10-0 Ma). The results reveal that the initial exhumation of the Qiman Tagh Range occurred in the Middle Triassic due to the collision between the western Qiangtang and eastern Qiangtang terranes and the northward colliding and collaging of the Kumukuri microcontinent with the south Qiman Tagh Terrane. The rapid exhumation during the Cretaceous resulted from the collisions between the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes. The Cenozoic exhumation may be related to the far-field stress effect of the India-Asia collision. Based on our new data, together with tectonic studies around the Qaidam Basin, we reconstructed the big Paleo-Qaidam Basin as it was during late Mesozoic and early Cenozoic time. The Mesozoic uplift of the Qiman Tagh Range was not high enough to form topographical isolation, but the rapid uplift of the Qiman Tagh at ca. 35 Ma completely separated the Kumukol Basin to the south from the Qaidam Basin to the north. The Qiman Tagh Range has experienced an acceleration of uplift since the Miocene to present, which formed the current basinrange landform. The study constrains the uplift history of the northern Tibetan Plateau and helps us to better understand its growth mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) (∼34 Ma) is marked by the rapid development of a semi‐permanent Antarctic ice‐sheet, as indicated by ice‐rafted debris and a 1–1.5‰ increase in deep sea δ18O. Proxy reconstructions indicate a drop in atmospheric CO2 and global cooling. How these changes affected surface ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic and ocean water stratification remains poorly constrained. In this study, we apply clumped‐isotope thermometry to well‐preserved planktonic foraminifera, that are associated with lower mixed‐layer to subthermocline dwelling depths from the drift sediments at international ocean discovery program Site 1411, Newfoundland, across four intervals bracketing the EOT. The thermocline/lower mixed‐layer dwelling foraminifera record a cooling of 1.9 ± 3.5 K (mean ± 95% CI) across the EOT. While the cooling amplitude is similar to previous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, absolute temperatures (Eocene 20.0 ± 2.9°C, Oligocene 18.0 ± 2.2°C) appear colder than previous organic proxy reconstructions for the northernmost Atlantic extrapolated to this location. We discuss seasonal bias, recording depth, and appropriate consideration of paleolatitudes, all of which complicate the comparison between SST reconstructions and model output. Our subthermocline dwelling foraminifera record a larger cooling across the EOT (Eocene 19.0 ± 3.5°C, Oligocene 13.0 ± 3.2°C, cooling of 5.5 ± 4.6 K) than foraminifera from the thermocline/lower mixed‐layer, consistent with global cooling and an increase in ocean stratification which may be related to the onset or intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Plain Language Summary: During the Eocene temperatures on Earth were much warmer than today. It is generally believed that the Antarctic ice‐sheet first developed around 34 million years ago, during the Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT). How this change occurred is still widely debated, but it was probably caused by decreased CO2 levels and changes to heat distribution through ocean currents. Here, we study how water temperatures at the dwelling depths of planktonic microfossils in the Atlantic Ocean changed across this event. We use clumped isotopes—a way of reconstructing the temperature from fossil shells. We measured shells of planktonic foraminifera, single‐celled microscopic plankton, that lived at two different depth levels in the upper ocean. We find that the foraminifera with a shallower (thermocline/lower mixed‐layer) water dwelling depth in the North Atlantic Ocean cooled by about ∼1.9 K, while those that dwelled deeper cooled by ∼5.5 K across the EOT. The thermocline/lower mixed‐layer cooling is similar in magnitude to reconstructions from organic biomarkers. However, our reconstructed absolute temperatures are colder than previous estimates. We think that our deeper water temperature reconstructions reflect global cooling, while thermocline/lower mixed‐layer temperatures did not cool as much because a warm water current developed, similar to the Gulf Stream. Key Points: Clumped isotopes from well‐preserved planktonic foraminifera imply 1.9 K lower mixed‐layer/thermocline cooling across Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) in North AtlanticOur thermocline temperatures for Eocene (20°C) and Oligocene (18°C) are cooler than organic proxy sea surface temperature estimatesIncreased subthermocline cooling compared to the thermocline indicates increased stratification across the EOT, hinting at intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geography of the Southeast Asian Islands (SEAI) has changed over the last 15 million years, as a result of tectonic processes contributing to both increased land area and high topography. The presence of the additional land area has been postulated to enhance convective rainfall, facilitating both increased silicate weathering and the development of the modern‐day Walker circulation. Using an Earth System Model in conjunction with a climate‐silicate weathering model, we argue instead for a significant role of SEAI topography for both effects. SEAI topography increases orographic rainfall over land, through intercepting moist Asian‐Australian monsoon winds and enhancing land‐sea breezes. Large‐scale atmospheric uplift over the SEAI region increases by ∼14% as a consequence of increased rainfall over the SEAI and enhancement through dynamical ocean‐atmosphere feedback. The atmospheric zonal overturning circulation over the Indo‐Pacific increases modestly arising from dynamical ocean‐atmosphere feedback, more strongly over the tropical Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the effect of the SEAI topography on global silicate weathering is substantial, resulting in a ∼109 ppm reduction in equilibrium pCO2 and decrease in global mean temperature by ∼1.7ºC. The chemical weathering increase comes from both enhanced physical erosion rates and increased rainfall due to the presence of SEAI topography. The lowering of pCO2 by SEAI topography also enhances the Indo‐Pacific atmospheric zonal overturning circulation. Our results support a significant role for the progressive emergence of SEAI topography in global cooling over the last several million years. Key Points: Southeast Asian Island (SEAI) topography enhances local rainfall and moderately increases Indo‐Pacific zonal overturning circulationSEAI topography significantly increases global silicate weathering and reduces equilibrium atmospheric pCO2 by ∼109 ppmResults suggest a significant role for progressive emergence of SEAI topography to cause global cooling over the last several million years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Holocene temperature conundrum, the discrepancy between proxy-based Holocene global cooling and simulated global annual warming trends, remains controversial. Meanwhile, reconstructions and simulations show inconsistent spatial patterns of terrestrial temperature changes. Here we report Holocene alkenone records to address spatial patterns over mid-latitude Eurasia. In contrast with long-term cooling trends in warm season temperatures in northeastern China, records from southwestern Siberia are characterized by colder conditions before ~6,000 years ago, thus long-term warming trends. Together with existing records from surrounding regions, we infer that colder airmass might have prevailed in the interior of mid-latitude Eurasian continent during the early to mid-Holocene, perhaps associated with atmospheric response to remnant ice sheets. Our results challenge the proposed seasonality bias in proxies and modeled spatial patterns in study region, highlighting that spatial patterns of Holocene temperature changes should be re-considered in record integrations and model simulations, with important implications for terrestrial hydroclimate changes. New alkenone results and existing temperature records together show contrasting Holocene temperature trends and thus display spatial patterns over mid-latitude Eurasia, with implications for the Holocene temperature conundrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system and climate models, and impact models, have worked together over the past few decades, to advance understanding of Earth system change and its impacts on society and the environment, and support international climate policy. We then recommend a number of priority research areas for the coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), a timescale that matches a number of newly starting international modelling activities and encompasses the IPCC 7th Assessment Report (AR7) and the 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these areas will significantly advance our understanding of Earth system change and its impacts and increase the quality and utility of science support to climate policy. We emphasize the need for continued improvement in our understanding of, and ability to simulate, the coupled Earth system and the impacts of Earth system change. There is an urgent need to investigate plausible pathways and emission scenarios that realize the Paris Climate Targets, including pathways that overshoot the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets, before later returning to them. Earth System models (ESMs) need to be capable of thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, in particular, the efficacy of negative CO2 emission actions in reducing atmospheric CO2 and driving global cooling. An improved assessment of the long-term consequences of stabilizing climate at 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures is also required. We recommend ESMs run overshoot scenarios in CO2-emission mode, to more fully represent coupled climate - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling and impact models should also use forcing data from these simulations, so impact and regional climate projections are as realistic as possible. An accurate simulation of the observed record remains a key requirement of models, as does accurate simulation of key metrics, such as the Effective Climate Sensitivity. For adaptation, improved guidance on potential changes in climate extremes and the modes of variability these extremes develop in, is a key demand. Such improvements will most likely be realized through a combination of increased model resolution and improvement of key parameterizations. We propose a deeper collaboration across modelling efforts targeting increased process realism and coupling, enhanced model resolution, parameterization improvement, and data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect to sampling future uncertainty, increased collaboration between approaches that emphasize large model ensembles and those focussed on statistical emulation is required. We recommend increased attention is paid to High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In particular, the risk and consequences of exceeding critical tipping points during a warming overshoot. For a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of Earth system change, including impacts arising directly from specific mitigation actions, it is important detailed, disaggregated information from the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to generate future scenarios is available to impact models. Conversely, methods need to be developed to incorporate potential future societal responses to the impacts of Earth system change into scenario development. Finally, the new models, simulations, data, and scientific advances, proposed in this article will not be possible without long-term development and maintenance of a robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This system must be easily accessible and useable across all modelling communities and across the world, allowing the global research community to be fully engaged in developing and delivering new scientific knowledge to support international climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1991–2020 climate normals for sea surface temperature (SST) are computed based on the NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation SST dataset. This is the first time that high‐resolution SST normals with global coverage can be achieved in the satellite SST era. Normals are one of the fundamental parameters in describing and understanding weather and climate and provide decision‐making information to industry, public, and scientific communities. This product suite includes SST mean, standard deviation, count and extreme parameters at daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales on 0.25° spatial grids. The main feature of the SST mean state revealed by the normals is that in the Tropics, the Indo‐Pacific Ocean is dominated by the warm pool (SST ≥ 28°C) while the eastern Pacific is characterized by the cold tongue (SST ≤ 24°C); in the midlatitudes, SSTs are in zonal patterns with high meridional gradients. Daily SST standard deviations are generally small (<1.0°C) except in frontal zones (>1.5°C) mostly associated with ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio and Equatorial Currents. Compared to the 1982–2011 climatology, the 1991–2020 mean SSTs increased over most global areas but obvious cooling is seen in the Southern Ocean, eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic warming hole. The Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) is found to have strengthened in both intensity and coverage since 1982–2011. By a count parameter criterion of ≥300 days annually with SST ≥ 28°C, the IPWP coverage increased 33% from 1982–2011 to 1991–2020. The global mean SST of 1991–2020 is warmer than that of 1982–2011, and the warming rate over 1991–2020 doubles that over 1901–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic super-eruptions have been theorized to cause severe global cooling, with the 74 kya Toba eruption purported to have driven humanity to near-extinction. However, this eruption left little physical evidence of its severity and models diverge greatly on the magnitude of post-eruption cooling. A key factor controlling the super-eruption climate response is the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol, a quantity that left no physical record and is poorly constrained by models. Here we show that this knowledge gap severely limits confidence in model-based estimates of super-volcanic cooling, and accounts for much of the disagreement among prior studies. By simulating super-eruptions over a range of aerosol sizes, we obtain global mean responses varying from extreme cooling all the way to the previously unexplored scenario of widespread warming. We also use an interactive aerosol model to evaluate the scaling between injected sulfur mass and aerosol size. Combining our model results with the available paleoclimate constraints applicable to large eruptions, we estimate that global volcanic cooling is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C no matter how massive the stratospheric injection. Super-eruptions, we conclude, may be incapable of altering global temperatures substantially more than the largest Common Era eruptions. This lack of exceptional cooling could explain why no single super-eruption event has resulted in firm evidence of widespread catastrophe for humans or ecosystems. Significance Statement: Whether volcanic super-eruptions pose a threat to humanity remains a subject of debate, with climate models disagreeing on the magnitude of global post-eruption cooling. We demonstrate that this disagreement primarily stems from a lack of constraint on the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol particles. By evaluating the range of aerosol size scenarios, we demonstrate that eruptions may be incapable of causing more than 1.5°C cooling no matter how much sulfur they inject into the stratosphere. This could explain why archaeological records provide no evidence of increased human mortality following the Toba super-eruption. Further, we raise the unexplored possibility that the largest super-eruptions could cause global-scale warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific innovation is overturning conventional paradigms of forest, water, and energy cycle interactions. This has implications for our understanding of the principal causal pathways by which tree, forest, and vegetation cover (TFVC) influence local and global warming/cooling. Many identify surface albedo and carbon sequestration as the principal causal pathways by which TFVC affects global warming/cooling. Moving toward the outer latitudes, in particular, where snow cover is more important, surface albedo effects are perceived to overpower carbon sequestration. By raising surface albedo, deforestation is thus predicted to lead to surface cooling, while increasing forest cover is assumed to result in warming. Observational data, however, generally support the opposite conclusion, suggesting surface albedo is poorly understood. Most accept that surface temperatures are influenced by the interplay of surface albedo, incoming shortwave (SW) radiation, and the partitioning of the remaining, post‐albedo, SW radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the extent to which the avoidance of sensible heat formation is first and foremost mediated by the presence (absence) of water and TFVC is not well understood. TFVC both mediates the availability of water on the land surface and drives the potential for latent heat production (evapotranspiration, ET). While latent heat is more directly linked to local than global cooling/warming, it is driven by photosynthesis and carbon sequestration and powers additional cloud formation and top‐of‐cloud reflectivity, both of which drive global cooling. TFVC loss reduces water storage, precipitation recycling, and downwind rainfall potential, thus driving the reduction of both ET (latent heat) and cloud formation. By reducing latent heat, cloud formation, and precipitation, deforestation thus powers warming (sensible heat formation), which further diminishes TFVC growth (carbon sequestration). Large‐scale tree and forest restoration could, therefore, contribute significantly to both global and surface temperature cooling through the principal causal pathways of carbon sequestration and cloud formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric mineral dust is a poorly constrained yet extremely important component of the climate system. Provenance studies from geologic dust archives are crucial to understand the drivers of the dust cycle over long time scales. Our multi‐technique provenance analysis of a rare Paleogene (35–27 Ma) eolian dust sequence from Ulantatal, ∼400 km northwest of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), shows that Paleogene dust transporting winds generally varied between northwesterly and westerly, the same as those in the late Neogene‐Quaternary bipolar icehouse. We propose that, as today, westerly wind circulation patterns would have been modulated by an Arctic Oscillation (AO)‐like situation, and that the warm Eocene favored a long‐term negative phase of AO, leading to meridional westerly circulation and the dominance of a northwesterly dust transport pathway. After the Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT), long‐term positive phase of AO‐like conditions initiated, leading to stronger and more zonal westerlies. The Siberian High (SH) also formed or strengthened at the EOT and started to control dust storm activity along the northwesterly transport pathway. We argue that increased Paleogene Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice volume was the ultimate driver of this modern‐type dust transport regime in the Ulantatal region, possibly also controlling initial Ulantatal dust sequence formation via the development of the SH and modern‐type eolian regime. The similarity between the Ulantatal and late Neogene northern CLP dust provenance signals suggests that the increased NH ice volume, via its control on the northwesterly dust transport, could have promoted increased loess formation also in the late Miocene. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the effects and responses of atmospheric mineral dust to climate changes in the geologic past is crucial for predicting future scenarios. Analysis of the source of dust deposited 35–27 million years ago in Ulantatal, Inner Mongolia, China reveals that the Central‐East Asian atmospheric circulation during this time interval was similar to that of today. Specifically, dust transport was dominated by northwesterly and westerly winds despite a significantly warmer global climate. We also propose that Arctic Oscillation (AO)‐type conditions, stemming from the temperature difference between the high and low latitudes, modulated planetary westerly winds during this period. Our results suggest that during warmer phases, a negative AO type dominated and resulted in wave‐like westerly wind patterns and a northwesterly dust transport pathway to Ulantatal. During cooler phases, the westerly circulation became stronger and more zonal. The Siberian High pressure system was possibly strengthened during increased Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice volume and further affected northwesterly dust transport. Our findings suggest that NH ice volume increase was possibly also responsible for the formation of the Ulantatal dust sequence itself. Our results imply that even under significantly warmer conditions than today, polar ice affects the long‐term dustiness in this highly populated region. Key Points: The provenance of a Paleogene (35–27 Ma) eolian dust sequence in Ulantatal, Inner Mongolia, China, reveals a modern‐type eolian regimeGlobal cooling and possibly expansion of Northern Hemisphere ice volume modulated the dust provenance by strengthening the Siberian HighLong‐term negative (positive) phase of Arctic Oscillation‐like conditions were favored in the warmhouse Eocene (coolhouse Oligocene) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth's radiative cooling is a key driver of climate. Determining how it is affected by greenhouse gas concentration is a core question in climate-change sciences. Due to the complexity of radiative transfer processes, current practices to estimate this cooling require the development and use of a suite of radiative transfer models whose accuracy diminishes as we move from local, instantaneous estimates to global estimates over the whole globe and over long periods of time (decades). Here, we show that recent advances in nonlinear Monte Carlo methods allow a paradigm shift: a completely unbiased estimate of the Earth's infrared cooling to space can be produced using a single model, integrating the most refined spectroscopic models of molecular gas energy transitions over a global scale and over years, all at a very low computational cost (a few seconds). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the climatic effect of vegetation in different regions is important for understanding the climate impact of vegetation change in both the past and future. Here we quantify the climate response to vegetation removal on each continent, except Antarctica, using CESM1.2.2 under pre‐industrial climate condition, and the associated mechanisms are analyzed. Results show that removing the global vegetation lowers the global mean surface temperature (GMST) by 3.65°C. Removing vegetation over Eurasia and North America lowers GMST by 1.83°C and 0.88°C, respectively. They also reduce the global precipitation, but at a much slower rate than that would be caused in the CO2 perturbation experiments. Removing vegetation on all other continents has negligible influence on global climate, but has significant local warming effect due to weakening of evapotranspiration. The removal of low‐latitude vegetation tends to reduce the local precipitation, but increase the precipitation over nearby oceans, especially to the west. The feedbacks of thermodynamic sea ice and oceans amplify the initial direct cooling due to vegetation removal by a factor of >5. The response of ocean circulation has a negligible impact on GMST, but has a significant influence on the pattern of temperature changes by redistributing heat. Without the ocean‐circulation feedback, the Northern Hemisphere would be 1.30°C colder while the Southern Hemisphere 1.17°C warmer when the global vegetation is removed. Plain Language Summary: Vegetation significantly affects climate but many of its effects are not well understood. For example, climatic effects of vegetation on different continents are still unclear. Here, we quantify systematically how the removal of vegetation on each continent would impact on the global climate and demonstrate the corresponding mechanisms using an Earth system model, CESM. Results show that the sum of temperature changes caused by vegetation removal on each continent is smaller than the cooling of 3.65°C when removing global vegetation. Vegetation removal over Eurasia and North America causes a global cooling of 1.83°C and 0.88°C, respectively, which also decreases global precipitation. The influences of vegetation removal on all other continents are negligible on global climate but significant on local climate. Besides, it is found that the precipitation increases over the nearby ocean while local land precipitation decreases after the removal of low‐latitude vegetation. What's more, the initial cooling due to vegetation removal is greatly amplified by the thermodynamic feedback of sea ice and ocean. The change of ocean circulation is such that it warms Northern Hemisphere by 1.30°C and cools Southern Hemisphere by 1.17°C, but has little effect on the global mean surface temperature. Key Points: Removing vegetation over Eurasia or North America induces a global cooling while that over other continents induces a local warming onlyRemoving low‐latitude vegetation reduces local precipitation but increases precipitation over oceans to the westSea‐ice feedback amplifies global cooling, and ocean circulation transports more heat from the Southern Hemisphere to Northern Hemisphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid increases in heat exposure in urban areas, fueled by both climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), are manifesting as a pressing concern. Planting and conserving urban trees is one of the pivotal strategies in mitigating outdoor heat and optimizing thermal comfort. We present an integrated review and meta-analysis of 131 studies conducted in the past 13 years, investigating the cooling effects of trees across 15 climate types in 85 global cities or regions. The cooling efficacy of trees is mainly determined by interconnecting urban morphology, tree traits, and, critically, the prevailing background climates. Our meta-analysis reveals that the cooling effects of urban trees observed in hot climates are significant due to low latitudes, along with their substantial solar radiation blockage and pronounced transpirational cooling. Moreover, an optimal level of transpirational cooling can be achieved at relatively lower humidity levels. However, in tropical and arid climates, extreme conditions involving high temperatures and vapor pressure deficits may trigger stomata closure in leaves, thereby impeding transpirational cooling. Our review further underscores the guiding principles of optimizing urban morphology by arranging buildings and trees, as well as selecting suitable tree species according to their traits to enhance the cooling effects of trees in different climates. The cooling effects of trees demonstrate a nonlinear increase in correlation with higher leaf area index (LAI), leaf area density (LAD), tree canopy coverage, and, inversely, a lower sky view factor (SVF). This systematic review and meta-analysis serve as a critical resource for researchers, urban planners, and policymakers striving to mitigate urban heat by strategically using urban trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelp forests are highly productive and economically important ecosystems worldwide, especially in the North Pacific Ocean. However, current hypotheses for their evolutionary origins are reliant on a scant fossil record. Here, we report fossil hapteral kelp holdfasts from western Washington State, USA, indicating that kelp has existed in the northeastern Pacific Ocean since the earliest Oligocene. This is consistent with the proposed North Pacific origin of kelp associated with global cooling around the Eocene--Oligocene transition. These fossils also support the hypotheses that a hapteral holdfast, rather than a discoid holdfast, is the ancestral state in complex kelps and suggest that early kelps likely had a flexible rather than a stiff stipe. Early kelps were possibly grazed upon by mammals like desmostylians, but fossil evidence of the complex ecological interactions known from extant kelp forests is lacking. The fossil record further indicates that the present-day, multi-story kelp forest had developed at latest after the mid-Miocene climate optimum. In summary, the fossils signify a stepwise evolution of the kelp ecosystem in the North Pacific, likely enabled by changes in the ocean-climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]