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Considering that the manufacturer produces normal products (NPs) and low-carbon remanufactured products (LCRPs), this paper studied the production decisions under capital constraints and the Carbon Emission Permits Repurchase Strategy (CEPRS). The direct selling model and supply chain model are constructed respectively and optimal decisions are given. On this basis, the influences of CEPRS on optimal decisions and corporate performance are analyzed. This study shows that for the capital-constrained manufacturer, adopting the CEPRS is conducive to promoting the production of LCRPs. In the direct selling model, a higher end-of-period carbon price is not always beneficial for the environment. In the supply chain model, as the end-of-period carbon price increases, the low-cap manufacturer tends to lower the wholesale price of LCRPs, while the high-cap manufacturer tends to increase the wholesale price of NPs. A lower carbon cap is more effective in controlling carbon emissions, while a higher carbon cap generates a higher profit. Moreover, the manufacturer's preference for operation mode is affected by the carbon cap. Specifically, the low-cap manufacturer prefers the direct selling model, while the high-cap manufacturer prefers the supply chain model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bi-objective distributed flow-shop scheduling problem with multistep electricity pricing and carbon emissions is studied. One objective is to minimise the completion time of production, and the other is to minimise the total cost of multistep electricity pricing and carbon emissions. A mixed integer programming model and a two-stage knowledge based cooperative algorithm with a local reinforcement strategy are proposed for the problem. The extensive numerical experiments show that the two-stage algorithm was effective statistical significantly in generating non-dominated solution sets and Pareto frontiers. Simulations on Electricity Prices are applied to examine different multistep electricity pricing schemes, and management implications were drawn for both government and companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the EU and the US successively proposed the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and the Clean Competition Act (CCA), importers are now required to declare the carbon emissions of their products. Particularly, wheel companies face increasing time pressure with the gradual development of implementation paths for net-zero emissions and implementing carbon pricing policies in various countries. This research uses the production data of Taiwan wheel companies to establish a mathematical model for the activity-based cost optimisation decision-making process. It explores the impact of different carbon emission costs on a company's product mix with pricing decisions. Further, the research proposes five mathematical programmes for single-period cost optimisation decision-making under carbon pricing. These models provide some detailed view, such as changes in profits and product mix caused by high carbon taxes or other changes for each resource. Furthermore, the production cost optimal model proposed in this research can be used by enterprises to fulfill their social responsibilities while ensuring profitability and serve as a reference for making net-zero transformation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sweden was one of the first countries to introduce a carbon tax back in 1991. We assemble a unique data set tracking CO2 emissions from Swedish manufacturing firms over 26 years to estimate the impact of carbon pricing on firm-level emission intensities. We estimate an emission-to-pricing elasticity of around two, with substantial heterogeneity across subsectors and firms, where higher abatement costs and tighter financial constraints are associated with lower elasticities. A simple calibration suggests that 2015 CO2 emissions from Swedish manufacturing would have been roughly 30% higher without carbon pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the effect of carbon pricing policy on bank credit to greenhouse-gas-emitting firms. Our analyses exploit the geographic restrictions inherent in California's cap-and-trade bill and a discontinuity in the embedded free permit threshold of the federal Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill. Affected high emission firms face shorter loan maturities, lower access to permanent forms of bank financing, higher interest rates, and higher participation of shadow banks in their lending syndicates. These effects are concentrated among private firms, while credit terms of public firms are largely unaffected. Overall, we show that banks respond quickly to realizations of transition risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if more ambitious policies are implemented soon. Existing carbon pricing policies have had limited impact on the emissions of these sectors because their marginal abatement costs almost always exceed the tax rate or allowance price. But emissions trading systems with free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors have minimized the adverse economic impacts and associated leakage. Internationally coordinated policies are unlikely, so implementing more ambitious policies creates a risk of leakage. This paper presents policy packages a country can implement to accelerate emission reduction by these sectors with minimal risk of leakage. To comply with international trade law the policy packages differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and producers whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic industry, support innovation and generate revenue. The revenue can be used to assist groups adversely impacted by the domestic price and production changes due to carbon pricing and to build public support for the policies.

This study examines the optimal energy mix for industrial complexes by incorporating renewable energy systems, decarbonization strategies, and sector coupling technologies. Using data from the Balan Industrial Complex in Korea, five energy scenarios were evaluated, ranging from conventional systems (Scenario 1) to advanced renewable configurations (Scenario 5). The results show that Scenario 5, which integrates sector coupling systems and decarbonization technologies, is the most cost-effective and environmentally sustainable. Scenario 5 achieves the lowest Net Present Cost (NPC), and significantly reduces CO2 emissions. Furthermore, an analysis of electricity prices and CO2 costs from Korea, the United States, and Germany highlights the critical role of regional electricity tariffs and carbon pricing in determining the economic feasibility of energy systems. While renewable setups require higher initial investments, Scenario 5 proves to be the most economically viable over time, offering both cost savings and environmental benefits. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry leaders, emphasizing the importance of customized strategies to optimize energy systems in industrial applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the principal emitter of carbon dioxide, China institutes dual carbon goals and fosters carbon pilot markets. This paper explores the mechanism of carbon's price jump, both considering the deployments of policy instruments and inherent financial characteristics unique to each pilot market within China. The results indicate that market transaction information exerts the most profound influence on instances of price jumps, whereas the implementation of uniform national policies also yields a noteworthy effect. However, the impact of pilot-specific policies varies across different regions and highlights its heterogeneity. Consequently, these findings could provide sound evidence to facilitate the involvement of traders and furnish decision-making departments to produce more accurate and efficient policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The document "An Introduction to Distributional Consequences of New Energy Technologies and Policies" from the Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists explores the intersection of changing energy technologies and policies with equity and distributional concerns. It contains eight papers from workshops funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, focusing on consumer technologies like heat pumps and electric vehicles, as well as producer technologies such as carbon capture. The papers highlight how the adoption of new energy technologies varies based on race and income, emphasizing the importance of understanding these differences for designing effective policies. [Extracted from the article]

Carbon pricing policies can play an important role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. However, policymakers often cite the lack of public support as a major obstacle to adopting and expanding the coverage of such policies. Using data from a large cross-country survey of about 28,500 people across 28 countries conducted during the summer of 2022, we show that providing information about the costs and benefits of carbon pricing can swing public support. Highlighting the efficacy and revenue recycling potential of carbon pricing increases support, especially in emerging market economies. In contrast, highlighting costs reduces support, but less so for people who report being already significantly impacted by climate change. Moreover, people adopt more negative views of subsidies for renewable energy and low-carbon technologies when the salience of their costs is increased, with the shift being more pronounced for people, especially in advanced economies, who believe that effective climate polices require global efforts. Our results suggest that there is scope to increase public support for climate mitigation measures by providing people with the policy information they may lack. Key policy insights: Support for climate change mitigation policies can be increased through information campaigns that clearly communicate the effectiveness and co-benefits of these policies. Given that the costs associated with climate policies are a key public concern, policymakers should provide clear explanations on how these costs are offset by long-term benefits and potential revenue recycling mechanisms. Increasing public awareness of the immediate human and economic losses caused by climate change at the local level can strengthen support for climate policies despite economic costs. Encouraging local and community-centric approaches to climate action by can help address concerns regarding collective action problems and coordination failures, and enhance support for national policy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon leakage can undermine the effectiveness of domestic climate policies and, if perceived as a significant risk, could even prevent their implementation. This concern also extends to the agricultural sector, where existing studies indicate a high potential carbon leakage risk. Like in other sectors, governments could use a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) to reduce this risk. In theory, a CBAM could offer an efficient solution to avoid competitiveness losses by domestic producers and thus reduce carbon leakage. However, the feasibility of implementing such a mechanism remains an open question. Although the literature suggests many CBAM design options, we are unaware of CBAM design proposals for agriculture. To fill this literature gap, this article uses a mixed methods approach to outline the characteristics of an agricultural CBAM (Ag-CBAM) and develop a design that could enhance its administrative, technical, and legal feasibility. We recommend that an Ag-CBAM should only cover carbon pricing policies, acknowledge foreign mitigation efforts, and use carbon price and emission intensity benchmarks. Additionally, we propose that it should cover only imports of products causing the majority of carbon leakage and be limited to emissions along certain life-cycle stages where emissions originate along the food supply chain, and specific greenhouse gases. Finally, our article discusses the potential performance of this CBAM under further criteria, including its effectiveness in reducing carbon leakage, equity, and consistency with the Paris Agreement. Key policy insights: The characteristics of the agricultural sector make the design of an Ag-CBAM far from trivial. Designing an Ag-CBAM requires extensive country-specific information to choose among many possible regulatory options. Although countries can improve the feasibility of implementing an Ag-CBAM through finding an suitable design, such an Ag-CBAM could lose its effectiveness in reducing carbon leakage and have further unexpected effects. An Ag-CBAM seems an attractive policy in countries where: carbon pricing policies in agriculture lead to a significant substitution of domestic by foreign products; few imports cause most carbon leakage; most emissions embodied in these imports do not originate in less-developed countries; and uncovered GHG emissions and benchmarks do not substantially reduce its effectiveness in reducing carbon leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective carbon taxation is essential for achieving the green transition. However, there is typically stiff opposition to carbon taxation due to adverse equity and other impacts. Hence, it is essential to get a better understanding of which factors, including the use of tax revenue, can increase acceptability. To date, stated preference methods, rarely used to analyse this issue, have focused only on households. We conduct two national choice experiment surveys of Norwegian households and companies. The experiments include carbon taxes on transport fuel and associated emission reductions and different revenue recycling options as attributes. We find that both groups are more accepting of higher tax levels if the revenues finance climate change mitigation efforts. There is some heterogeneity among the groups with regard to using revenues to reduce different dimensions of inequality. Simulating policy scenarios, we find acceptance for the highest carbon tax among both groups when the revenues are used both to finance climate change mitigation efforts and to reduce rural-urban inequalities. This policy option points to an acceptable carbon tax close to an estimated level necessary for reaching the most ambitious climate target set by the Norwegian government. In Norway, further research should explore whether an effective carbon tax level could be achieved with modest efficiency loss, while also alleviating inequality. Key policy insights: Policymakers need a better understanding of the factors, including the use of associated tax revenues, that increase carbon tax acceptability in order to ensure that the tax is high enough to effectively reduce emissions. Simultaneously considering levels of carbon tax acceptance among households and companies could increase the chance of implementing higher, more effective carbon tax levels by identifying mutual interests and points of divergence. Our results show that companies and households concur to a certain extent on the most socially acceptable policy option; earmarking carbon tax revenues to finance climate change mitigation efforts and to reduce rural-urban inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon pricing is a key component of current climate policy agendas. There are a variety of societal and health impacts from carbon pricing interventions (e.g. from improved air quality). A better understanding of potential health impacts and how they depend on context and policy design is crucial to improve the political feasibility and fairness of carbon pricing. Recent reviews have synthesized evidence on the effectiveness, equity and perceptions of carbon pricing and on the health co-benefits of mitigation. This review provides a narrative structured synthesis of the health impacts of carbon pricing. We identified 58 relevant publications of which all were modelling studies. We classify review findings into policy-relevant categories, synthesizing information on how carbon pricing affects health outcomes when implemented in different contexts, in isolation or as part of policy mixes. Findings suggest that internalization of health co-benefits in optimal price level estimates could lead to substantial mitigation in some regions. There are also opportunities to design carbon pricing to improve health outcomes, including through progressive or targeted use of revenues to improve food security, subsidize healthier diets or promote active transportation. Revenue use, price differentiation, market size and permit allocation of emissions trading schemes (ETS), and interaction with other public health or mitigation policies all influence health outcomes. Overall, the health impacts of carbon pricing are highly context-specific and further evidence is needed, particularly on health inequalities and ex-post analysis. However, existing evidence suggests that it is possible to design health-beneficial carbon pricing policies, thus enhancing policy acceptability and feasibility. Key policy insights: Internalizing health co-benefits into optimal carbon pricing estimates could lead to substantial emission reductions in some regions, although additional action is needed to encourage price levels compatible with climate targets Health co-benefits can be boosted through key elements of policy design including price differentiation across commodities and regions, revenue use or ETS design Careful policy design can enhance health gains at a small or insignificant cost in terms of climate mitigation effectiveness and efficiency. The implementation of carbon pricing as part of broader policy mixes with a strong focus on progressivity and equity is crucial to achieving health co-benefits [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon prices have grown remarkably in the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS) in recent years, raising distributional concerns. Revenues are expected to grow with higher carbon prices, thus providing resources to address distributional issues. Beyond a certain point, however, higher prices can discourage the purchase of allowances and ultimately reduce revenues, describing a Carbon Laffer Curve (CLC). We empirically investigate the CLC in the EU ETS between 2012 and 2021 using auction revenues at the country level. Results indicate that ETS revenues follow an inverted‐U relationship in both the volume and the price of auctioned allowances, with an estimated optimal price between 86 and 125 euros. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important market-based environmental policy, carbon emissions trading has played an increasingly important role in promoting energy conservation, emission reduction, and green innovation. The Chinese government started to implement a Carbon Emission Trade scheme in 2013 successively. This study uses a multi-period difference in difference to investigate the impact of Carbon Emission Trade on green innovation in panel data of listed companies from 2008 to 2020. The results show that: (1) Carbon Emission Trade significantly improves green innovation by 0.1916%. The robust test verifies the results. (2) The impact of Carbon Emission Trade on green innovation is heterogeneous at regional, industrial, and firm levels. From the regional level, Carbon Emission Trade has a stronger effect on regions with high marketization and low emissions. From the industry level, the policy effects are more pronounced in technology-intensive industries and the power industry, and negative policy effects are generated in Chemical industry, steel, and paper industries. From the enterprise level, Carbon Emission Trade shows better policy effects in state-owned enterprises, large enterprises. (3) Carbon Emission Trade enhances green innovation by reducing corporate financing constraints, improving corporate human capital, and strengthening government. (4) The enhancement of green innovation by Carbon Emission Trade balances the benefits. Increasing carbon price, market size and activity inhibit the increase of Carbon Emission Trade on green innovation. Based on the findings, the paper provides a new reference for the establishment of a carbon market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the EU ETS 2 a new EU-wide emissions trading system is introduced that covers the greenhouse gas emission of the buildings and road transport sectors, i.e. sectors the decarbonization of which has so far been the responsibility of the Member States under the Effort Sharing Regulation. Since they will remain responsible for the achievement of their national greenhouse gas emission reduction targets under that regime, the question arises whether the Member States can maintain or introduce additional carbon pricing instruments alongside the new EU ETS 2. Hence, this paper examines the legality of such an approach, by assessing relevant provisions of EU secondary and primary law. Without going deep into the economic and political considerations, it concludes that from a legal perspective, the coexistence of national carbon pricing instruments and the EU ETS 2 is not prohibited. With the latest reform of the EU Emissions Trading System Directive (ETS Directive), the European Union (EU) has introduced a new EU emissions trading system for buildings and road transport (EU ETS 2)1. The decarbonization of those sectors traditionally falls within the responsibility of the EU Member States under the regime of the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). The ESR introduces legally binding national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. Hence, over the last few years, the Member States have introduced different measures in order to reach their targets. Those include carbon pricing instruments, understood as measures that put a price on the emission of GHG and thus create an incentive to reduce those emissions. Carbon pricing instruments include carbon taxes, as well as emissions trading systems2. With the introduction of the new ETS 2, the question arises whether the Member States can maintain (or introduce) such national carbon pricing instruments in parallel to the new EU ETS 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the transition from the German national emissions trading system to the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS2) from 2027, final consumer prices for fossil motor and heating fuels are likely to rise significantly. This increase will affect low-income households more noticeably, as they spend a larger share of their income on energy than high-income households. Existing relief measures, such as the basic income scheme, the housing benefit, and subsidy programs, only partially reach these groups. A climate dividend that is automatically paid out to all residents largely mitigates excessive effects of the carbon pricing burden. However, additional aid and subsidy programs are required due to the remaining burdens on vulnerable low-income households with high energy consumption. These programs could be financed if above-average and high-income earners did not receive the climate dividend. Carbon pricing does not affect these groups as much and they generally have more opportunities to reduce their fossil energy consumption. Thus, the climate dividend should be paid to all households, but reduced unbureaucratically as a part of wage and income taxes for above-average and high-income earners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a novel application of a temporal convolutional network (TCN) for projecting carbon tax prices, addressing the critical need for accurate forecasting in climate policy. Utilizing data from the World Carbon Pricing Database, we demonstrate that the TCN significantly outperformed traditional time series models in capturing the complex dynamics of carbon pricing. Our model achieved a 31.4% improvement in mean absolute error over ARIMA baselines, with an MAE of 2.43 compared to 3.54 for ARIMA. The TCN model also showed superior performance across different time horizons, demonstrating a 30.0% lower MAE for 1-year projections, and enhanced adaptability to policy changes, with only a 39.8% increase in prediction error after major shifts, compared to ARIMA's 95.6%. These results underscore the potential of deep learning for enhancing the precision of carbon price projections, thereby supporting more informed and effective climate policy decisions. Our findings have significant implications for policymakers and stakeholders in the realm of carbon pricing and climate change mitigation strategies, offering a powerful tool for navigating the complex landscape of environmental economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing from the big data archive of Google Trends, we innovatively construct a novel data set, the composite news-based speculation index, to proxy for the role of speculation in the predictability of carbon prices. We employ a theory-based multi-factor predictive framework to test the hypothesis that both emission compliance and emission noncompliance dynamics of the ETS matter in the predictability of carbon prices. We show that speculation is a good predictor of carbon prices. We find the robustness of the forecasting power of speculation in the predictability of carbon prices evident for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and across different forecast horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to pay attention to the coverage distance of stores, as one of the key features of the consumer market. This factor can have many effects on economic and environmental issues as well as on the service level. In this paper, two models are proposed. In the first model, the location and allocation of stores are discussed using the maximum coverage method, and in the second model, the optimal number of products is calculated and the network costs and pollution are minimized. GAMS software with CPLEX solver was used to solve mixed linear integer programming under the uncertainty of demand parameters, maximum coverage distance, and carbon trade price in different scenarios. Due to the lack of law to minimize the amount of pollution caused by transportation in Iran, the cap-and-trade policy was used in the supply chain of the Bistoon sugar factory in Kermanshah. The results showed that increasing the coverage distance, in addition to reducing the level of customer service, will also increase the overall costs of the manufacturer and network pollution. Also, despite the costly implementation of environmental policies, by replacement of green vehicles, the overall costs of the network have not increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the volatility of market demand and carbon trading prices, this study examines the effects of two carbon policies—the carbon tax policy and the cap‐and‐trade policy—as well as various information structures on the supply chain's carbon emission reduction incentives. A brand incentivizes the carbon abatement effort of an upstream supplier through a two‐part contract in the form of a fixed salary and a proportional incentive. We discover that, under some circumstances, the brand may benefit more from the unobservability of supply chain information. The brand bundles the risk of uncertainty with the supplier through the proportional incentive. In classical incentive contracts, only the cost is considered and the positive effect of risk conveyance is often ignored. In our study, the brand needs to investigate a trade‐off between the benefit of risk conveyance and the drawback of the incentive cost. On one hand, the proportional incentive characterizes the incentive cost. The brand increases the incentive intensity due to the unobservable effort of the supplier. On the other hand, it also has a risk conveyance effect. Specifically, the proportional incentive decreases with the correlation coefficient under the cap‐and‐trade policy. Additionally, there are situations in which consumer surplus benefits from the observability of supply chain information. However, supply chain information transparency is harmful to consumer surplus as supplier risk aversion increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deepening implementation of the energy and carbon market imposes trading requirements on multiple regional integrated energy system participants, including power generation plants, industrial users, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) facilities. Their diverse roles in different markets strengthen the interconnections among these subsystems. On the other hand, the operation of CCUS, containing carbon capture (CS), power-to-hydrogen (P2H), and power-to-gas (P2G), results in the coupling of regional carbon reduction costs with the operation of electricity and hythane networks. In this paper, we propose a regional economic dispatching model of an integrated energy system. The markets are organized in a centralized form, and their clearing conditions are considered. CCUS is designed to inject hydrogen or natural gas into hythane networks, operating more flexibly. A generalized Nash game is applied to analyze the multiple trading equilibria of different entities. Simulations are carried out to derive a different market equilibrium regarding network scales, seasonal load shifts, and the ownership of CCUS. Simulation results in a 39-bus/20-node coupled network indicate that the regional average carbon prices fluctuate from ¥1078.82 to ¥1519.03, and the organization of independent CCUS is more preferred under the proposed market structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With ambitious emission reduction targets presented in the international commitments, Vietnam has a pathway to implement an emission trading scheme (ETS) to curb its carbon emissions. However, research on the impacts of ETS in Vietnam is still unclear, especially since there is no study on ETS revenue redistribution policies. By developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper simulates the potential impacts of the ETS with different revenue redistribution options. The results indicate that to achieve Vietnam's target of 15.8% carbon emission reduction, the carbon price would significantly affect the economy with a GDP drop of 3.7% and a welfare loss of 2.89% of GDP. The revenue redistribution policies would lighten these negative impacts. While transferring to government activities reduces GDP loss, reducing income tax policy results in welfare improvement. At the sectoral level, the electricity sector is most negatively affected and also plays a key role in reducing carbon emissions in Vietnam. The revenue redistribution for government activities could improve outputs for the construction and some heavy industries while the revenue redistribution policy for households creates improvements for light industries and the electricity industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The integration of multi‐energy within distribution networks has escalated the need for efficient operation and control of integrated energy systems (IES). Addressing the complexities of real‐time scheduling and low‐carbon optimization, we propose a novel artificial intelligence driven multi‐agent system (MAS) approach for modeling the interactions and operations within the multi‐agent integrated energy systems (MA‐IES) framework. In this framework, distinct components such as electric, gas, and heat networks are conceptualized as autonomous agents, each responsible for managing its domain while interacting with other agents to achieve system‐wide efficiency and economical goals. The agents communicate and coordinate through a distributed online optimization framework, utilizing the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM) to ensure effective consensus despite the inherent nontransparency of information exchange. This MAS based approach allows for dynamic adaptation of strategies based on local data and global objectives, significantly enhancing the responsiveness and adaptability of MA‐IES. We further integrate an objective function reliant on a tiered carbon pricing mechanism to assess and minimize the environmental impact of operations. Enhanced by adaptive penalty coefficients within the ADMM, our MA‐IES framework demonstrates improved convergence rates and robustness in operational scenarios. Empirical validation through detailed case studies confirms the superior performance of our MAS‐based model, demonstrating its potential to realize an efficient and economical low‐carbon operation of MA‐IES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing damage effect of climate change, the Canadian government has taken a further step to ensure that carbon pricing is implemented in all provinces to reduce its GHGs emissions as a means of addressing climate change. Thus, this paper examines the effect of carbon pricing on energy consumption which is the main source of CO2 emission to enhance our understanding beyond carbon-pricing effects on households and revenue recycling in the prior research. Our study analyzes the energy efficiency of Canada using the province-level data between 2000 and 2021, by developing an SFA production model to understand the drivers of energy consumption and then compute the total factor energy efficiency index while controlling for the role of carbon pricing. Our empirical results reveal that increased labor input, as well as output, mitigate the rising capital-induced energy consumption, while carbon pricing policy plays no significant role in influencing energy consumption. However, the effectiveness of carbon pricing is found in reducing province-level energy efficiency. This striking evidence suggests that policymakers should consider a labor-oriented energy saving scheme and conduct a comprehensive review of the current carbon pricing policy in order to align with energy efficiency interventions toward the achievement of Canada's Paris Agreement targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of modern power systems, the reliance on a single-time-of-use electricity pricing model presents challenges in managing electric vehicle (EV) charging in a way that can effectively accommodate the variable supply and demand patterns, particularly in the presence of wind power generation. This often results in undesirable peak–valley differences in microgrid load profiles. To address this challenge, this paper introduces an innovative approach that combines time-of-use electricity pricing with the flexible energy storage capabilities of electric vehicles. By dynamically adjusting the time-of-use electricity prices and implementing a tiered carbon pricing system, this paper presents a comprehensive strategy for formulating optimized charging and discharging plans that leverage the inherent flexibility of electric vehicles. This approach aims to mitigate the fluctuations in the microgrid load and enhance the overall grid stability. The proposed strategy was simulated and compared with the no-incentive and single-incentive strategies. The results indicate that the load peak-to-trough difference was reduced by 30.1% and 18.6%, respectively, verifying its effectiveness and superiority. Additionally, the increase in user income and the reduction in carbon emissions verify the need for the development of EVs in tandem with clean energy for environmental benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on updated estimates of the social cost of carbon obtained from the most recent literature, this article proposes a social cost of carbon-based benchmark for carbon pricing to drive world countries' carbon pricing policies up to 2050, consistent with the Paris Agreement targets. By using a dataset on net effective carbon rates developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), we firstly compare both explicit and implicit carbon pricing in 2021 in 71 OECD and non-OECD countries with the social cost of carbon benchmark for 2021 and calculate the degree of internalization of the social cost of carbon averagely related to their carbon pricing instruments. We find that there is a serious gap in current climate policies, which are far from creating optimal pricing conditions to reduce global emissions to levels needed by the Paris Agreement. The economic and distributional feasibility of a full implementation of the carbon pricing benchmark is tested in the same set of countries using two indicators, which are calculated for 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050. Since the test results are income-regressive among income country groups, benchmark implementation by countries within the cooperative approaches of Paris Agreement art. 6 should be accompanied by the creation of an international cooperative fund aimed to recycle at least part of the revenues collected by high-income countries to compensate affected population in lower-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the deep integration of shipping companies and the stable operation of the three alliances (2 M, THE, Ocean), the previous situation of port monopoly has changed. In view of this situation, this paper tries to study the influence of government subsidies on the choice of shore power or lower sulfur fuel oil strategy of shipping company and the entire maritime supply chain under different power structures (Port Stackelberg (PS), Nash Game (N), Shipping company Stackelberg (CS)). Results show that when carbon price is very low or very high, the governmental subsidy will not affect the shipping company's choice of shore power or lower sulfur fuel oil, but when carbon price is moderate, government subsidy will encourage shipping company to adopt shore power (SP). For the shipping company, using LSFO when the carbon price is low or adopting SP when the carbon price is high can bring the highest profit. For the government, if the government cares more about the supply chain's profit, then the government should try to promote the power structure of PS or CS, and if the government pays more attention to social welfare, the power structure of N should be promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This note describes the sources and methods used to calculate the emissions-weighted carbon price (ECP), the average price applied to CO2 emissions across all sources of emissions within a territorial jurisdiction by all carbon pricing mechanisms in force. It provides a transparent summary of the stringency of carbon pricing mechanisms in force within a given jurisdiction and allows for a straightforward comparison of that stringency across jurisdictions. It also describes the methodology behind two closely connected calculations: (i) sector-level carbon prices (by IPCC categories of emissions by sources and by categories of economic activity, respectively), (ii) industry- and country-level carbon costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the potential changing roles of ports in terms of diversifying their revenue through the expansion of new markets in the Port of Ngqura. This is by means of the production and sales of renewable hydrogen as marine fuel produced from a wavefarm in Nelson Mandela Bay. A key objective of the study was to conduct a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of the feasible hydrogen production technologies based on the analysis performed, including alkaline electrolysis of seawater and renewable-powered electrolysis of seawater. The produced hydrogen aligns with global decarbonisation of ships and ports and will be used to supply the port with electricity, serve to refuel tugboats, and provide green hydrogen bunkering fuel for commercial shipping vessels. The Port of Ngqura is geographically well positioned to lead the production of zero carbon shipping fuel. This work considers the CAPEX and OPEX of a hydrogen plant using electrolysers and evaluates the current cost of production and selling price of hydrogen. The primary aim of this study was to examine the feasibility of hydrogen production through electrolysis of seawater at the Port of Ngqura. Through assessing resource and technological options, determining advantageous economic assumptions, and identifying existing limitations and potential opportunities, a feasibility study was conducted with special consideration of the site characteristics of Ngqura. The output of this study is a model that simulates the production, storage, and transportation of hydrogen gas from the Port of Ngqura, which was further used to analyse different case study scenarios. This approach directly addresses the main goal of the study. The results found showed that with wave energy convertors in a row of three next to each other, the energy produced by the wave farm was 2.973 TJ per month, which is equivalent to 18.58 tons of produced hydrogen when considering the lower heating value of hydrogen and assuming that hydrogen production efficiency is 75%. The anticipated hydrogen fuel will be able to refuel a tugboat with green hydrogen from the energy produced by the wave farm each month. It is predicted that the price of hydrogen is expected to drop, and the price of fossil fuel will gradually increase in the coming years. The fact that coal electricity can be produced on demand and wind and solar energy are weather dependent as a result lacks the ability to achieve a constant supply. There is currently an urgent need for energy storage and the efforts to study the production of hydrogen and ammonia. Hydrogen is still predicted to be more expensive than coal electricity; however, from this, maybe a critical cost for a kg of CO2 could be calculated, which could make hydrogen competitive. The cost of green hydrogen production from wave energy in the Port of Ngqura was calculated as R96.07/kg (4.88 EUR/kg) of produced hydrogen, which is equivalent to 2.1 times the cost of the same energy supplied as Marine Diesel Oil (MDO) at current prices. Hydrogen from wave energy would thus become competitive with MDO; if a price is set for the emission of CO2, this may also offset the difference in cost between MDO and hydrogen from wave energy. The carbon price necessary to make green hydrogen competitive would be approximately R6257/tonne CO2, or 318 EUR/tonne CO2, which is around 4.5 times the current trading price of carbon in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since public support is critical for implementing carbon pricing policies, we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the survey-based literature on change in public support for direct and indirect carbon pricing policies with and without revenue recycling options. Following a comprehensive and transparent machine-learning assisted screening of the literature, our dataset comprises 35 studies containing 70 surveys across 26 countries with over 100,000 respondents. We find that the introduction of any type of revenue recycling option increases public support for carbon pricing. Results from our meta-regression indicate that green spending (i.e. using revenues for climate-friendly projects) is the only revenue recycling option associated with a statistically significant increase in public support. Our findings moreover suggest that the effects may depend on which region the survey was carried out, highlighting the need for additional research in countries in the regions of Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify, with profound effects on global supply security of key mineral resources. Considering China's high dependence on foreign iron ore, once there is an import shortage, what impacts will it have on China's macro-economy and environment? Thus, using a computable general equilibrium model, this study introduced import supply disruption behaviour to assess the economy-wide and environmental effects of a large-scale iron ore import shortage on China. Furthermore, two supporting measures of enhancing upstream mining and cancelling steel import tariffs were constructed. The results demonstrated that an import shortage of iron ore will generate a negative effect on China's GDP and household welfare, wherein the higher the disruption degree, the greater the negative effect will be, and the maximum loss of GDP is 5.6 % in 2035. Secondly, total energy demand has reduced obviously, and the largest decline is 8.8 % in 2035. Particularly, the coal demand is most negatively affected by GDP loss, shrinking by up to 11.4 % by 2035. Meanwhile, the oil and gas demands have also dropped to some degree. Thirdly, the import disruption will help to reduce carbon emissions (by up to 9.9 % in 2035), but also have obvious environmental benefits. Finally, both measures will help alleviate the negative socio-economic impacts; however, the overall effects will be better if enhancing upstream mining is complemented by carbon pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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To align with the global goal of keeping temperature below 2 ∘ C, a market-based initiative, "Emissions Trading System" (ETS), has been developed to mitigate climate change. However, while the carbon allowances traded at the ETS are mostly held and traded by polluting companies, financial actors engage in "speculation", activities that might be detrimental to the functioning of the ETS have also invested in the ETS. By drawing from the big data archive of Google Trends, we construct a news-based speculation index to proxy for the role of speculation in the dynamics of carbon pricing. Given our preliminary finding of inherent volatility and the mixed-frequency nature of the dataset, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS econometric technique to test the hypothesis that an all-inclusive framework that reflects the emission compliance and emissions non-compliance dynamics of the ETS is the most accurate approach to modeling carbon prices. We show that higher speculation in the ETS fosters higher long-term volatility in carbon prices, that speculation is a good predictor of carbon prices, and that its positive impact on carbon price returns makes the ETS an attractive investment opportunity. We provide a data-driven framework upon which the growing debate about whether the behavior of the non-compliance emission actors in the ETS endangers or benefits the functioning of the ETS can be evaluated empirically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions are a major contributor to global warming and climate change. The government has adopted carbon tax (CT) and cap-and-trade policies to reduce carbon emissions from carbon companies. This paper develops a production–inventory model for scarce perishable goods under different carbon policies and outside green technology. This study covers the contribution of energy-efficient green technology in a multi-stage supply chain to control carbon emissions in producing and transporting goods from the manufacturer to the dealer. However, it discusses a different combination of carbon policies chosen for manufacturers and retailers in their countries. According to the findings, changes in carbon pricing, CT, and exchange rates under various policy combinations have varying effects on the entire supply chain, each member's interests, and the social benefits of reducing carbon emissions. It seeks to provide useful information to decision-makers in businesses or supply chains, especially multinational corporations, to make decisions related to fixed rate CT and cap partial deficit cases, long cycle time, reasonable profit with small value, and long term and low cost of green technology investment. The main objective is to find the best material sourcing, production, and distribution strategy for manufacturers and the best replenishment strategy for retailers to maximize the overall joint profitability of the supply chain. In summary, sensitivity analysis has provided an optimal solution management implication based on certain key parameters and CT size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study considers the research on electricity pricing and carbon reduction technology decisions of electricity supply chain enterprises under different power structures. It constructs a two-level electricity supply chain game model composed of two electricity producers and a single electricity retailer. By comparing the equilibrium solution results, the main research results are as follows: (1) in the market structure where electricity producers and electricity retailers make decisions at the same time, electricity producers are more willing to invest in low-carbon technologies and increase carbon emission reduction. The electricity retailer also set the lowest electricity prices at this time, and electricity demand is the highest. (2) In the case of the Stackelberg game for electricity producers, the wholesale electricity price is the highest, and the electricity producers obtain the most profits. In the case of the Stackelberg game for electricity retailers, the electricity price is the highest, and the profit of the electricity retailer is the highest. (3) In the market structure dominated by electricity retailers, the electricity price is the highest, and the electricity producers reduce the investment in carbon emission reduction technology after observation; the carbon emission reduction intensity is the least, and the electricity demand is also the least. (4) With the increase of price competition coefficient, the intensity of carbon emission reduction, electricity demand, electricity producers, and electricity retailer profit increase. However, as the competition coefficient of carbon reduction technology increases, these equilibrium solutions decline. We verify the above conclusions using multi-agent simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the constraints of low-carbon transformation goals, energy enterprises have significantly increased their debt default risk levels due to carbon price fluctuations. This article first analyzes the contagion mechanism of debt default risk among energy enterprises, and based on this, constructs a debt default risk contagion model among energy enterprises considering carbon price fluctuations, and then simulates and analyzes the evolution characteristics of debt default risk contagion among energy enterprises. The research results indicate that: (1) As the proportion of carbon emission cost increment and investor sentiment index increase, the stability of the debt network of energy enterprises strengthens. As the ratio of commercial credit among energy enterprises and influence of energy enterprises increase, the impact of debt risk gradually intensifies. (2) The investor sentiment index has a strengthening effect on the influence of energy enterprises, the proportion of commercial credit among energy enterprises, and the proportion of carbon emission cost increment. The commercial credit ratio between energy enterprises and its influence has a mutually reinforcing effect. (3) The investor sentiment index has suppressed debt default risk for various energy enterprises. The joint risk suppression effect of the proportion of carbon emission cost increment and the influence of energy enterprises in petroleum and petrochemical enterprises is more prominent. The joint risk constraint ability between the proportion of carbon emission cost increment and investor sentiment index in coal enterprises is stronger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how management quality moderates the impact of carbon pricing on Chinese firms. Based on interviews with managers and lead engineers at manufacturing firms in Hubei and Beijing, we construct a novel index of climate-change-related management practices and link it to firm data from various sources. We document higher average productivity and more green innovation among firms that are well managed according to the index. In an event study of the introduction of regional cap-and-trade schemes for CO2, we analyze how management quality interacts with treatment. While treated firms reduced coal consumption more than control firms, this effect is statistically significant only for well-managed firms. The reduction could have been 25% greater if badly managed firms had been well managed. Our study highlights that good management practices, in particular energy monitoring, enhance the effectiveness of market-based climate policies by enabling firms to rationally comply with those policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The motivation for our study stems from the increasing complexity of spillovers between energy markets in the low-carbon energy transition and the important practical implications of ensuring a secure energy supply. In this paper, based on a time-frequency perspective, we use TVP-VAR-SV and network topology analysis to examine the dynamic linkages between China's carbon market, several renewable energy markets, and electricity markets. The results reveal asymmetric risk spillovers between markets over time, with an upward trend. The establishment of the national carbon market did not significantly change the inter-market risk structure, with the hydropower and wind markets being the main sources of risk, and the electricity and carbon markets being the main recipients of risk. Spillovers show delayed and cyclical effects, peaking within one week and lasting up to five weeks. Finally, the paper makes several suggestions for risk prevention in the energy market: strengthening ex-ante risk warning and monitoring in the energy market; formulating specific carbon market policies based on the specific relationship between the carbon market and different energy markets; and giving full play to the guiding role of the carbon price in the allocation of carbon resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the escalation of fossil fuel pollution and the challenges of climate change, the smart grid is forced to address the carbon emissions associated with fossil fuel use. Real-time pricing of smart grid is an effective means to regulate the balance of supply and demand in the grid as well as to achieve energy conservation and environmental protection. This paper takes traditional fossil energy and clean energy power supply as the background, takes social welfare maximization as the goal, combines carbon emission cost with traditional power generation cost, and constructs a real-time pricing model that takes into account carbon emission cost, so that thermal power enterprises participate in the power market and carbon market at the same time. By using duality methods, we transformed the original optimization problem into an equivalent one. Furthermore, a distributed iterative algorithm based on the subgradient projection method is employed to solve the dual problem. The simulation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed real-time pricing strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study concentrates on the pricing issue in a low-carbon dual-channel (DC) supply chain, where the upper-level manufacturer is regulated by the cap-and-trade (CAT) mechanisms. Market demand is a key factor affecting pricing decision and demand uncertainty complicates the pricing problem. To deal with the challenge that only partial demand distribution information is available, this paper proposes a novel ambiguity distribution set to depict the uncertain demand. Under the proposed ambiguity distribution set, a robust fuzzy bi-level optimization pricing model is developed for the low-carbon DC supply chain. Three CAT regulation mechanisms, no CAT regulation, grandfathering (GF) mechanism and benchmarking (BM) mechanism, are considered to address the manufacturer's CAT regulation. The analytically tractable counterpart of the proposed model is derived and the corresponding robust equilibrium solutions are obtained under three CAT mechanisms. Numerical analyses are carried out to explore the impact of the demand uncertainty on the manufacturer's selection of the CAT regulation mechanism. The numerical results indicate that the uncertainty degree can change the manufacturer's selection of the regulated mechanisms. Specifically, when the uncertainty degree is smaller, the BM mechanism is beneficial for the manufacturer comparing with the GF mechanism; when the uncertainty degree is bigger, the manufacturer prefers to GF mechanism rather than BM mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has become a consensus in the international community to actively address global climate change issues and strive to achieve carbon reduction. For this purpose, carbon finance market plays a significant role in reducing carbon emissions by providing financial mechanisms to support and incentivize emission reduction projects. As a type of carbon finance derivative, carbon swap is an agreement between two parties whereby a floating price is exchange for a fixed price for carbon emission right over a specified period. How to price carbon swap before signing, i.e., determine the fixed price in the swap contract, and valuate carbon swap during the life of the swap contract are key issues. Noting the fact that the underlying asset of carbon swap is carbon price, the primary task is to model carbon price reasonably. Due to the inherent challenges and uncertainties associated with pricing carbon, frequency stability is often not guaranteed, resulting in the failure of probability based methods. Thus, this paper characterizes the carbon price using uncertain differential equation under the framework of uncertainty theory, and derives swap pricing and valuation formulas. Estimations for unknown parameters in the proposed model are given. Finally, with carbon spot price in European Energy Exchange, real data analyses are documented to illustrate our proposed methods in details. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The investment potential for biochar production from low‐value forest biomass in the western USA is over USD 20 billion at current carbon prices. This investment could generate approximately 70 million carbon credits annual – roughly the same number currently generated globally by all forestry and agricultural carbon projects. Biochar production that utilizes woody biomass specifically from wildfire fuel thinning projects as a feedstock can contribute financially to much‐needed fuel thinning projects. Each coupled biochar and carbon credit production system has positive returns in certain scenarios. Light upgrades to existing biopower facilities have the highest returns, with internal rates of return generally between 10–30%. Mobile biochar production often had the lowest returns. However, land managers can subsidize mobile biochar production up to USD 150–300 per tonne of biochar and still save money in comparison with pile‐burning low‐value biomass while also generating approximately one carbon credit for every two bone‐dry tonnes of low‐value biomass turned to biochar. The critical barrier to industry growth is the lack of transparent biomass supply chains that enable long‐term contracting for feedstock, production schedules, and investment. Moving forward, there are three potential pathways for the biochar industry to scale and utilize biomass from forest management and fuel thinning projects. Either (1) the carbon market will need to sustain high carbon prices, (2) a subsidy or other mechanism will need to decrease the cost of feedstock biomass, or (3) production will need to take advantage of economies of scale to bring down biochar prices while increasing production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Driven by the motivation to raise the ambition level of climate action and to foster the transformation of economies, current climate policy discourse revolves around ways to improve cooperation between industrialized countries and emerging economies. We identify three broad types of initiatives—multilateral-cross sectoral, multilateral, sector specific, and climate and development partnerships—and assess them for potentials to deliver on such objectives with a specific focus on industry transformation. This paper provides new reflections on the institutionalization of international climate cooperation. Specifically, we demonstrate the urgent need to understand what values, norms, and underlying principles drive a cooperation in order to draw conclusions on how to best institutionalize climate cooperation rules.in-use. We conclude that an overemphasis on a CO2 price and on carbon border adjustment mechanisms, such as in the context of the initial proposals for a cross-sectoral climate club envisaged by G7 countries, would have contributed to a further polarization of the international landscape. We find, however, that multilateral, sectoral alliances play an important role for international goal setting and the convergence on standards, metrics, and benchmarks. Based on our analysis, we recommend strengthening multilateral, sector-specific partnerships. These can be focused on sectoral topics as a connector between countries, allowing for a strategically-aligned, increasingly deep collaboration. However, for any initiative to succeed, processes of international institutionalization will be needed in order to agree on rules for implementation based on aligned interests and equity. Building such institutions may well serve as a steppingstone toward more durable cooperation structures between developed economies and emerging economies. In sum, no existing cooperation approach is perfect, but three actions may be taken to move the agenda forward: First, reform of the carbon border adjustment mechanism and removing it from the center of climate club discussions, second, coupling sectoral alliances with climate and development partnerships, and three, designing them in a way to address fears of political influence seeking and superimposition of global north agendas on the global south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector make a significant contribution to global greenhouse gases, and understanding the factors that influence these emissions is beneficial for devising effective emission reduction policies. Oil prices are an important influencing factor since the fuel used in the transport sector is primarily based on oil, and fluctuations in oil prices directly impact the sector's CO2 emissions. Additionally, environmental policies, as a key means of controlling CO2 emissions, can affect the relationship between oil prices and CO2 emissions in the transport sector. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of oil prices on CO2 emissions in the transport sector and explore the nonlinear role of environmental policy stringency in this relationship. Based on data from 27 OECD member countries and 6 non-member countries from 1990 to 2019, we used the environmental policy stringency index as a threshold variable to construct a panel threshold regression model. The analysis results indicate a double-threshold effect: when the environmental policy stringency index is low, the impact of oil prices on CO2 emissions in the transport sector is not significant. However, when the index reaches the first threshold, the impact of oil prices significantly increases; upon reaching the second threshold, the effect is further intensified. This paper also analyzes the three subindicators—market-based policies, non-market-based policies, and technology support policies—to clarify the distinct impact mechanisms of different types of environmental policies. Finally, based on the research findings, we propose policy recommendations to achieve carbon dioxide emission reduction targets in the transport sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As new-energy electricity increasingly enters the post-subsidy era, traditional fixed feed-in tariffs and guaranteed purchase policies are not conducive to the optimal allocation of large-scale, high-proportion new-energy power due to the high pressure of subsidy funds and the fairness issues of power-generation grid connection. Encouraging new energy to participate in electricity market transactions is considered an effective solution. However, existing studies have presupposed the adverse effects of new energy in proposing market mechanism optimization designs for new-energy participation without quantitative results to support this, which is not conducive to a true assessment of the comprehensive impact of individual instances of new-energy participation in the market. To this end, this study, based on the actual experience and data cases of China's electricity spot market pilot provinces, considers both unit commitment and economic dispatch in the electricity distribution process, and constructs a two-stage optimization model for electricity spot market clearing. According to the differences in grid connection time and the construction costs of new-energy power, differentiated proportions of new-energy participation in the market and bidding strategies are set. By analyzing the quantitative results of new energy participating in spot market transactions under multiple scenarios, using both typical daily data for normal loads and peak loads, the study provides theoretical support and a data basis for the optimized design of market mechanisms. The research results show that there is a non-linear relationship between the scale of new energy entering the market and its bidding strategies and market-clearing electricity prices. In the transition phase of the low-carbon transformation of the power sector, the impacts of thermal power technology with a certain generation capacity and changes in the relationship between power supply and demand on electricity prices are significant. From the perspective of the individual interests of new-energy providers, the analysis of their bidding strategies in the market is important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise forecasts of carbon prices are crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable, low-carbon development. To mitigate noise interference in carbon price data, hybrid models integrating data decomposition techniques are commonly utilized. However, it has been observed that the improper utilization of data decomposition techniques can lead to data leakage, thereby invalidating the model's practical applicability. This study introduces a leakage-free hybrid model for carbon price forecasting based on the sliding window empirical wavelet transform (SWEWT) algorithm and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network. First, the carbon price data are sampled using a sliding window approach and then decomposed into more stable and regular subcomponents through the EWT algorithm. By exclusively employing the data from the end of the window as input, the proposed method can effectively mitigate the risk of data leakage. Subsequently, the input data are passed into a multi-layer GRU model to extract patterns and features from the carbon price data. Finally, the optimized hybrid model is obtained by iteratively optimizing the hyperparameters of the model using the tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE) algorithm, and the final prediction results are generated by the model. When used to forecast the closing price of the Guangdong Carbon Emission Allowance (GDEA) for the last nine years, the proposed hybrid model achieves outstanding performance with an R2 value of 0.969, significantly outperforming other structural variants. Furthermore, comparative experiments from various perspectives have validated the model's structural rationality, practical applicability, and generalization capability, confirming that the proposed framework is a reliable choice for carbon price forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Introduction] This paper aims to deeply analyze and improve China's carbon pricing mechanism to more effectively promote the social transition to green and low-carbon, and at the same time enhance China's leadership and initiative in the process of global carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. [Method] By comprehensively sorting out the current situation and future trends of the global carbon pricing mechanism, this article deeply analyzed the shortcomings of China's existing carbon pricing mechanism, such as insufficient correlation with the overall climate policy goals, unclear nature of property rights in the carbon market, and inactive market entities. This paper further discussed the potential impact of rising carbon price on China's emission reduction effect and energy supply guarantee. [Result] Based on China's national conditions, this paper gives the strategic direction and corresponding measures to construct China's carbon pricing mechanism by using carbon market carbon quota, carbon tax, coordination between carbon market and carbon tax, and carbon finance. [Conclusion] On the basis of clarifying the development ideas of China's carbon pricing mechanism, it provides a countermeasure reference for China to win more voice in the international carbon pricing mechanism, such as strategies for synergizing the domestic electricity certificate and carbon markets, improving the "integrity" of China's green certificates, engaging in the promotion of mutual recognition in international carbon markets, and collaborating to establish coordinated carbon pricing mechanisms among nations.

This paper investigates how variations in aviation carbon pricing influence the network choices of airlines and social planner. Beyond the traditional direct-flight (DF) network, hub-and-spoke (HS) network and mixed (MX) network, we incorporate the 2-hub (2 H) network into our analysis. The findings reveal that as carbon pricing costs increase, the optimal network configuration for airlines progresses sequentially through 2 H, MX and DF. This suggests that due to horizontal product differentiation, the inclusion of 2 H in the model renders the HS network—which is widely utilized by numerous major airlines—no longer the optimal choice for airlines. From the perspective of social planner, the optimal network configuration undergoes a progression from HS, 2 H, HS, MX, DF, MX to DF as carbon pricing costs rise. While the HS network may not align with the optimal choice for airlines, it has the potential to be the socially optimal network. Furthermore, the transition of socially optimal networks exhibits discontinuities, resulting in significant deviations from the network decisions made by airlines. Overall, this paper broadens the scope of network choices available to airlines by incorporating the 2 H network and offers theoretical insights for policy formulation by both airlines and society within the context of aviation carbon offset.