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Shrinkage is understood as the process of population decline in an area which is the result of different processes such as deindustrialisation or demographic change. Local stakeholders in shrinking cities are faced with a contradictory task: they have to ensure a good living quality under conditions of shrinkage with fewer funds for this purpose and become increasingly dependent on external sources. Set against this background, the paper analyses different ways of how local stakeholders are involved in developing empirically founded rules to model local trajectories and decision-making heuristics of urban shrinkage. After the introduction of research objectives (1.1), the paper provides an insight into the challenge of urban shrinkage from the perspective of local stakeholders (1.2). Next materials and methods for modelling local pathways of urban shrinkage by involving local stakeholders are presented (2.). A third part introduces different research projects/ approaches working with stakeholder involvement and modelling techniques (3.). By means of these case studies, we show how stakeholders are enabled to participate in knowledge creation. The last part of the paper discusses what the impact of local stakeholders in the presented cases really is. (4.) Thus, we argue that stakeholder processes have generated new knowledge and valuable insights into drivers and relationships of the shrinkage process, and have also supported the generation of more comprehensive future development trajectories.

One of the challenges of simulating urban regions in Europe is urban shrinkage, where de-industrialisation, massive population losses and ageing cause housing vacancies in cities. These vacancies decrease efficiency in urban infrastructure and result in problems related to under-utilisation. Investigating the relationship between residential location choice and infrastructure-related decisions can foster urban planning related to shrinkage. This paper presents a coupled simulation of two agent-based models: a) Resident agents belong to different household types. They decide upon their location and move to existing flats or houses. For this, they consider aspects such as their preference for certain urban structural types and urban infrastructure. b) Infrastructure agents represent providers of roads, public transport and schools, as these infrastructure types are likely to influence residential choice. Infrastructure agents change urban land use by altering infrastructure. They take into account the efficiency of the infrastructure. The simulation focuses on the mutual interactions between residents and infrastructure. The main exchanges of information relate to spatially explicit distribution of population and of infrastructure. The decisions of one agent rely upon the output of the other and vice versa. It will be investigated which circumstances lead to a scattered shrinkage all over the city and which ones stimulate a decline of single urban districts.

In our paper the hypothesis is tested that demographic decline, de-economisation and structural crisis of cities are bringing about a new evolving type of urban development. We present a new social science concept of urban shrinkage that comprises features of non-growth, on-going sprawl and upcoming reurbanisation. Using a system dynamics approach we apply this social science concept in a simulation model which uses variables emerging from this concept as descriptors for population, household and residential processes and pattern. For the model implementation we “translate” non-numerical and only partially quantifiable social science knowledge into model variables. In our presentation we show the simulation of different urban development scenarios assuming a range of population and household formation changes, an increase of single households, altering demands on residential space as well as related vacancies. Thus we identify different ways of extreme or smart growth and shrinkage.

Die Stadtentwicklung im 21. Jh. sieht sich neuartigen Anforderungen gegenüber, die aus der Parallelität von Wachstum und Schrumpfung resultieren. Während Stadtwachstum das bislang bekannte und akzeptierte Muster war, sind Schrumpfungsprozesse - zumal in dem Ausmaß, der Wirkmächtigkeit und dem Tempo ihres Auftretens - ein Phänomen, auf dessen Umgang die meisten Bereiche der öffentlichen Daseinvorsorge wenig vorbereitet sind. Dies trifft auch auf den Öffentlichen Gesundheitsdienst (ÖGD) zu. Um den neuen Herausforderungen gerecht zu werden, müssen Aufgaben und Zielstellungen angepasst werden. Dazu bedarf es umfassender Informationen hinsichtlich der veränderten Situation. Kooperation und Kommunikation mit kommunalen und regionalen Institutionen, u. a. mit den Dezernaten für Stadtentwicklung, werden immer wichtiger. Darüber hinaus sind Untersuchungsergebnisse aus dem Bereich der soziologischen Stadtforschung geeignet, um die neuen gesundheitlichen Problemlagen, die aus dem Zusammenspiel zwischen Veränderung der gewohnten Alltagsumgebung und der notwendigen stressbelasteten Anpassungsreaktion der betroffenen Menschen entstehen, zu verdeutlichen.

The question is whether the different processes in the development of growingand shrinking urban regions implicate the necessity to adjust and to differentiatebetween traditional environmental management and planning concepts. It isargued that urban planning in growing and shrinking urban regions does notrequire completely different planning procedures but locally adjusted solutionswith better integration of sustainability issues. This paper briefly presents aconceptual approach that proposes a better integration of sustainability principlesin planning processes by the categories space management, resourcemanagement, spatio-temporal management and process management. Thesecategories will allow for complementing existing formal planning instrumentswith strategic, economic, and participatory approaches.

The publication explores policy and planning approaches to urban shrinkage and population decline from Bilbao, Spain (2000-2015), Leipzig, Germany (2000-2015) and Zeeland, the Netherlands (2018-2020). Through the main method of interpretive policy analysis, causal and normative dimensions of the policy and planning approaches are determined. The conclusions from the different cases are reviewed in a cross-national comparative framework, based on policy benchmarking. As a result of the policy benchmarking, variants of the new planning concept of "Shrinking Smart" are defined, providing recommendations for overall policy approach under conditions of population decline, encompassing: the planning process for shrinking cities; a decision making mechanism with normative orientation; economic development and quality of life as a broader policy framework; spatial planning under conditions of urban shrinkage. The conclusions are complemented by critical reflection on growth orientation and its pervasiveness under conditions of shrinkage and population decline as well as with recommendations on particular instruments under each of the concept variants.

The publication explores policy and planning approaches to urban shrinkage and population decline from Bilbao, Spain (2000-2015), Leipzig, Germany (2000-2015) and Zeeland, the Netherlands (2018-2020). Through the main method of interpretive policy analysis, causal and normative dimensions of the policy and planning approaches are determined. The conclusions from the different cases are reviewed in a cross-national comparative framework, based on policy benchmarking. As a result of the policy benchmarking, variants of the new planning concept of "Shrinking Smart" are defined, providing recommendations for overall policy approach under conditions of population decline, encompassing: the planning process for shrinking cities; a decision making mechanism with normative orientation; economic development and quality of life as a broader policy framework; spatial planning under conditions of urban shrinkage. The conclusions are complemented by critical reflection on growth orientation and its pervasiveness under conditions of shrinkage and population decline as well as with recommendations on particular instruments under each of the concept variants.

Coastal port-industrial areas are becoming increasingly significant due to urban shrinkage, population decline, and climate change. To address social and economic issues and enhance climate resilience, it is crucial to anticipate urban shrinkage in both stable and growing coastal areas that are undergoing economic transformation. Urban planning can better understand the dynamics of planning for urban shrinkage and climate resilience, as port-industrial areas have a large economic impact on nearby coastal communities. This dissertation examines the long-term implications of urban shrinkage in coastal port-industrial areas in the context of climate change and sea level rise in England. The research problem is that current urban policy does not adequately address the challenges of urban shrinkage and climate resilience in these areas. The research questions are: What are the population changes in local areas in England? What effect does population decline have on changing urbanisation patterns in older industrial areas? What type of adaptation efforts were made in North East Lincolnshire, England, and Bremerhaven, Germany, in response to the 2013 tidal surge, and how did this affect urban shrinkage? The dissertation applies an integrated concept of Shrinkage-Resilience as a framework for analysis. The methodology includes a review of existing models and frameworks, as well as case studies of international and local contexts. The findings suggest that between 2013-2019, 68% of older industrial areas (including coastal ports) in England are undergoing changing urbanisation patterns relative to population, land use, and green belt areas, and are key areas for urban policy, such as the Levelling Up agenda. One of the areas, North East Lincolnshire is discussed and compared to Bremerhaven. These examples demonstrate the link between Shrinkage-Resilience approaches and their practical implementation in coastal port-industrial areas affected by urban shrinkage. This research