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This study contributes to the relatively scarce literature evaluating household-level outcomes of collective agreements. We examine participation in and anticipation effects of two collective, incentive-based initiatives in Ucayali, Peru. The first initiative is a local REDD+ project, the second is Peru's National Forest Conservation Program (NFCP). Both initiatives were evaluated at an early stage of implementation, thus any effects are characterized as anticipation effects. We first examine the determinants of participation in the initiatives and find that household participation is negatively associated with agricultural income and positively associated with market access and previous experiences with external initiatives. Next, we use quasi-experimental methods and self-reflexive evaluations to examine impacts on land use and livelihoods. The results show no evidence of anticipation effects on income or land use. Self-reflexive evaluations indicate, however, that a total of 82% of the NFCP participating households perceive a positive effect on wellbeing, while only 39% of participants in REDD+ perceive a positive effect. The differences in perceptions of the two initiatives is attributed to design and implementation factors, including delayed payments, lack of transparency, and limited local input. The study demonstrates the value of self-reflexive evaluations for identifying intangible effects on wellbeing of conservation initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon credits can be a valuable tool for climate change mitigation and forest conservation, but their success depends on improving their credibility. Current certification methods try to underwrite credit permanence claims by maintaining a shared pool of nontradable credits which can be drawn from in the event of reversals (9). [Extracted from the article]

REDD+ was initially conceived of as a multi-level carbon-based payment for environmental services (PES). It is still often assumed to be a cost-effective climate change mitigation strategy, but this assumption is mostly based on theoretical studies and static opportunity cost calculations. We used spatial and socioeconomic datasets from an Amazonian deforestation frontier in Brazil to construct a simulation model of REDD + payments to households that can be used to assess REDD + interventions. Our SimREDD + model consists of dynamic optimization and land-use/cover change allocation submodels built into an agent-based model platform. The model assumes that households maximize profit under perfect market conditions and calculates the optimal household land-use/cover configuration at equilibrium under a given REDD + PES scenario. These scenarios include PES based on (1) forest area and (2) carbon stocks. Insights gained from simulations under different conditions can assist in the design of more effective, efficient, and equitable REDD + programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private protected area (PPA) conservation agents (CA) engaging in development-based conservation in southern Chile have generated conflict with locals. Poor fit of dominant development-based conservation ideology in rural areas is commonly to blame. We developed and administered a cultural consensus survey near the Valdivian Coastal Reserve (RCV) and Huilo Huilo Reserve (HH) to examine fit of CA cultural truths with local residents. Cultural consensus analysis (CCA) of 23 propositions reflecting CA cultural truths confirmed: (1) a single CA culture exists, and (2) RCV communities were more aligned with this culture than HH communities. Inadequate communication, inequitable decision making, divergent opinions about livelihood impacts and trajectories, and PPA purpose may explain differences between CAs and communities. Meanwhile, variability in response between and within communities may reflect differing environmental histories. Private protected area administrations might use CCA to confront cultural differences and thereby improve their community interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The claim that nature delivers health benefits rests on a thin empirical evidence base. Even less evidence exists on how specific conservation policies affect multiple health outcomes. We address these gaps in knowledge by combining municipal-level panel data on diseases, public health services, climatic factors, demographics, conservation policies, and other drivers of land-use change in the Brazilian Amazon. To fully exploit this dataset, we estimate random-effects and quantile regression models of disease incidence. We find that malaria, acute respiratory infection (ARI), and diarrhea incidence are significantly and negatively correlated with the area under strict environmental protection. Results vary by disease for other types of protected areas (PAs), roads, and mining. The relationships between diseases and land-use change drivers also vary by quantile of the disease distribution. Conservation scenarios based on estimated regression results suggest that malaria, ARI, and diarrhea incidence would be reduced by expanding strict PAs, and malaria could be further reduced by restricting roads and mining. Although these relationships are complex, we conclude that interventions to preserve natural capital can deliver cobenefits by also increasing human (health) capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Pervasive tenure insecurity in developing countries is a key challenge for REDD+. Brazil, a leader in REDD+, has advanced efforts to link forest tenure reform and environmental compliance. We describe how these policies have shaped sub-national interventions with detailed data on land tenure and livelihoods in four REDD+ pilot sites in the Brazilian Amazon. Despite different local contexts, REDD+ proponents have converged on a similar strategy of collaborating with government agencies to clarify tenure and pave the way for a mix of regulatory enforcement and incentive-based REDD+ mechanisms. This polycentric governance model holds promise for effective and equitable REDD+ implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Milk production (liters) and efficiency (liters/cow) are affected by green and blue water. • Reductions in rainfall may have disproportionately large negative impacts on the poor. • Investments in green water and blue water have the potential to off-set reductions in rainfall. • The poor are less able to invest in green and blue water and as a result may be left behind. Deforestation and global climate change are predicted to affect precipitation and agricultural productivity in the Amazon. Anecdotal evidence suggests that farmers are already being affected by changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, but there is little quantitative evidence on the mechanism by which precipitation affects production. This paper uses an innovative application of remote sensing and meteorological data to separate rainfall into green water (soil moisture that contributes to plant water use) and blue water (surface water), to estimate the impact of these water sources on the production and production efficiency of dairy in a mature colonization zone of the Brazilian Amazon. This approach allows us to draw inferences about different pathways through the precipitation-production causal chain and to link changes in precipitation with impacts on farm profits and welfare. We find that production and production efficiency are affected by green and blue water and that reductions in rainfall will have negative impacts that may disproportionally impact the poor. Our methods and results are informative to economists interested in this relatively new application of remote sensing data, to geographers interested in identifying the role of green and blue water in agricultural production, and more generally to researchers interested in the impacts of rainfall and water availability on small-scale producers in the Brazilian Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests are a key component of hydrological cycles, and thus deforestation is likely to affect the availability and quality of water for downstream agricultural production. However, in humid tropical regions where water is relatively abundant and the terrain is relatively flat, it is unclear whether these changes in ecosystem services matter to local farmers. We test whether the extent of forest in upstream drainage areas affects downstream farm production in an agricultural colonization zone in the Brazilian Amazon. We first estimate panel models of the output of milk, which is the primary farm product in our study region. We then test for effects on pasture stocking and cow productivity as possible pathways for the effect of upstream forests on milk output. Estimation results suggest that upstream forest increases the productivity of properties with small drainage areas. The effects are strongest when water is either scarce (dry season of drought years) or excessive (rainy season of flood years). The contribution of Amazonian forests to the resilience of the local farm economy is likely to become more important as rainfall becomes more variable due to regional and global climate change. • Evaluation of forest watershed services at property scale over 14 years. • Forest watershed services are valuable when water is scarce or excessive. • Forests increase the resilience of family dairy farming in the Brazilian Amazon. • Watershed services are substantially less valuable than deforestation profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

Evidence-based approaches to sustainability challenges must draw on knowledge from the environment, development and health communities. To be practicable, this requires an approach to evidence that is broader and less hierarchical than the standards often applied within disciplines.

Climate change mitigation in developing countries is increasingly expected to generate co-benefits that help meet sustainable development goals. This has been an expectation and a hotly contested issue in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) since its inception. While the core purpose of REDD+ is to reduce carbon emissions, its legitimacy and success also depend on its impacts on local well-being. To effectively safeguard against negative impacts, we need to know whether and which well-being outcomes can be attributed to REDD+. Yet, distinguishing the effects of choosing particular areas for REDD+ from the effects of the interventions themselves remains a challenge. The Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+ employed a quasi-experimental before-after-control-intervention (BACI) study design to address this challenge and evaluate the impacts of 16 REDD+ pilots across the tropics. We find that the GCS approach allows identification of control groups that represent the counterfactual, thereby permitting attribution of outcomes to REDD+. The GCS experience belies many of the common critiques of the BACI design, especially concerns about collecting baseline data on control groups. Our findings encourage and validate the early planning and up-front investments required to evaluate the local impacts of global climate change mitigation efforts with confidence. The stakes are high, both for the global environment and for local populations directly affected by those efforts. The standards for evidence should be concomitantly high.

Environmental health problems such as malaria, respiratory infections, diarrhoea and malnutrition pose very high burdens on the poor rural people in much of the tropics. Recent research on key interventions-the adoption and use of relatively cheap and effective environmental health technologies-has focused primarily on the influence of demand-side household-level drivers. Relatively few studies of the promotion and use of these technologies have considered the role of contextual factors such as governance, the enabling environment and national policies because of the challenges of cross-country comparisons. We exploit a natural experimental setting by comparing household adoption across the Benin-Togo national border that splits the Tamberma Valley in West Africa. Households across the border share the same culture, ethnicity, weather, physiographic features, livelihoods and infrastructure; however, they are located in countries at virtually opposite ends of the institutional spectrum of democratic elections, voice and accountability, effective governance and corruption. Binary choice models and rigorous non-parametric matching estimators confirm that households in Benin are more likely than households in Togo to plant soybeans, build improved cookstoves and purchase mosquito nets, ceteris paribus. Although we cannot identify the exact mechanism for the large and significant national-level differences in technology adoption, our findings suggest that contextual institutional factors can be more important than household characteristics for technology adoption., (Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.)