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The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949–1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1°C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the hypothesis that Atlantic cod larvae are passively transported by sea currents from off-shore spawning areas to settle in coastal waters, a hypothesis which has recently gained support from genetic analysis of cod in the North Sea–Skagerrak area. Such larval transport has been suggested to be an important mechanism behind the commonly observed low spatial genetic differentiation in many marine organisms. Here, we apply an ARMAX(2,2) model for juvenile abundance and use long-term monitoring data from the Skagerrak coast, constituting 54 continuous annual series from 1945 to 1997. Analysing the model, we find that the product of the size of the North Sea breeding stock and the strength of the net inflow of North Sea waters had a significant, positive effect on the abundance of coastal juvenile cod. The peak effect occurs during the month of March, just after spawning, when eggs and larvae remain pelagic and sensitive to currents. In contrast, we find no evidence of any direct effect of the North Sea spawning stock alone. Our analyses indicate that 15–20000 0-group larvae from the North Sea reach each fjord per year, on average. This corresponds to about 1–10% of the total 0-group population in each fjord on average. These findings clearly demonstrate a direct link between larval drift and gene flow in the marine environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derive some readily verifiable necessary and sufficient conditions for a multivariate non-Gaussian linear process to be time-reversible, under two sets of conditions on the contemporaneous dependence structure of the innovations. One set of conditions concerns the case of independent-component innovations, in which case a multivariate non-Gaussian linear process is time-reversible if and only if the coefficients consist of essentially asymmetric columns with column-specific origins of symmetry or symmetric pairs of columns with pair-specific origins of symmetry. On the other hand, for dependent-component innovations plus other regularity conditions, a multivariate non-Gaussian linear process is time-reversible if and only if the coefficients are essentially symmetric about some origin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961–2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982–2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for ≈20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event (“locked pastures”) with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) “event” process. The introduction of an “event” parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1976 the North Pacific climate shifted, resulting in an average increase of the water temperature. In the Gulf of Alaska the climate shift was followed (i.e. early 1980s) by a gradual but dramatic increase in the abundance of groundfish species that typically prey on pre-recruitment stages of walleye pollock. In the present study we used a previously parameterized model to investigate the effect of these climate and biological changes on the recruitment dynamics of walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska. Simulations covered the 1970–2000 time frame and emphasized the medium-to-long temporal scale (i.e. about 5–10 years) of environmental variability. Results showed that during periods characterized by high sea surface temperature and high predation on juvenile pollock stages, recruitment variability and magnitude were below average, and recruitment control was delayed to stages older than the 0-group. Opposite dynamics (i.e. high abundance and variability, and early recruitment control) occurred during periods characterized by low temperature and predation. These results are in general agreement with empirical observations, and allowed us to formulate causal explanations for their occurrence. We interpreted the delay of recruitment control and the reduction of variability as an effect of increased constraint on the abundance of post age-0 stages, in turn imposed by high density dependence and predation mortality. On the other hand, low density-dependence and predation favoured post age-0 survival, and allowed for an unconstrained link between larval and recruitment abundance. Our findings demonstrate that the dominant mechanisms of pollock survival change over contrasting climate regimes. Such changes may in turn cause a phase transition of recruitment dynamics with profound implications for the management of the entire stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate can affect population dynamics in indirect ways via nonadditive forcing by external variables on internal demographic rates. Current analytical techniques, employed in population ecology, fail to explicitly include nonadditive interactions between internal and external variables, and therefore cannot efficiently address indirect climate effects. Here, we present the results of an analysis, employing specifically developed statistical methodology, on density-dependent survival of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcograinma) prerecruitment stages in relation to background environmental variables in the Gulf of Alaska. We found that spring winds and water temperature mediate the intensity of density-dependent survival from the eggs to the age-0 stage. Fall water temperature and juvenile pollock predator abundance mediate density dependence from the age-0 to the age- 1 stage. The inclusion of such nonadditive and nonlinear effects in a population dynamics model improved our ability to simulate pollock recruitment. Our results point to the importance of understanding nonadditive and nonlinear interactions between external (climate) and internal factors in the presence of underlying environmental variation. These topics are discussed in the context of current research priorities in population ecology and conservation biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climate can interact with other factors in determining patterns of species abundance is a persistent challenge in ecology. Recent research has suggested that the dynamics exhibited by some populations may be a non-additive function of climate, with climate affecting population growth more strongly at high density than at low density. However, we lack methodologies to adequately explain patterns in population growth generated as a result of interactions between intrinsic factors and extrinsic climatic variation in non-linear systems. We present a novel method (the Functional Coefficient Threshold Auto-Regressive (FCTAR) method) that can identify interacting influences of climate and density on population dynamics from time-series data. We demonstrate its use on count data on the size of the Soay sheep population, which is known to exhibit dynamics generated by nonlinear and non-additive interactions between density and climate, living on Hirta in the St Kilda archipelago. The FCTAR method suggests that climate fluctuations can drive the Soay sheep population between different dynamical regimes--from stable population size through limit cycles and non-periodic fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the population dynamic effects of a pulse disturbance (a toxic algal bloom in the early summer of 1988) on cod (Gadus morhua) populations along the Skagerrak coast of Norway. For this purpose, we applied "intervention analysis" (sensu G. E. P. Box and G. C. Tiao). For the marine system studied, we estimated that the 1988 bloom killed 42-81% of the 0-group (6-mo-old) cod before the fall of the same year (with an average effect estimated to be ∼60%). The algal bloom had no detectable direct harmful effect on the 1-group cod (during the same fall) but was found to have a delayed effect (from 58% to 99%) on the survival of the 0-group (in 1988) to the 1-group (in 1989). We concluded that the bloom had no long-term effect on the cod. Our analysis is presented as a case study using intervention analysis within the field of ecology. Assuming the availability of both a credible ecological model and a long-term observational time series (as was the case for our marine system), we suggest that intervention analysis provides a valuable tool for simultaneously studying the unperturbed dynamical structure and the impact of the environmental disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of Canadian lynx (Lynx canadensis) abundance are geographically structured according to the influence of large-scale climatic regimes. Here we demonstrate that this structuring matches zones of differential snow conditions, in particular surface hardness, as determined by the frequency of winter warm spells. Through a modified functional response curve, we show that various features of the snow may influence lynx interaction with its main prey species, the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). This study highlights the importance of snow, and exemplifies how large-scale climatic fluctuations can mechanistically influence population biological patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a report on common dynamic structure of Canada lynx populations within three climatic regions, namely Pacific-maritime, Continental, and Atlantic-maritime. Suggestion of a possible link with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

We analyze interannual variation in zooplankton biomass in the southwestern Barents Sea in spring (May) and summer (June-July) 1959-1993. Using a threshold modeling approach, we quantify spatial, climatic, and across-season autoregressive effects under contrasting regimes of low and high densities of planktivorous fish (capelin and herring). Main findings: (1) zooplankton biomass is mainly influenced by capelin feeding, first in the offshore parts of the western Barents Sea in spring and subsequently farther east and north in summer, whereas direct effects of herring are quantitatively less important; (2) effects of climate are stronger during the zooplankton increase phase in spring than in summer and are better predicted using the North Atlantic Oscillation index than using reconstructed sea surface temperature and Atlantic water influx; (3) regional anomalies in zooplankton biomass persist from spring to summer but not from summer to the subsequent spring, indicating that the observed fluctuations have little effect on next year's dynamics; and (4) effects of climatic variation and planktivorous fish interact: climatic (and autoregressive) effects are mainly evident when and where the effect of feeding is weak. Zooplankton dynamics thus appear to be under shifting top-down and climatic control, the relative importance of the two processes varying spatially, seasonally, and interannually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among these. In the temperate zone, local variations in weather are often coupled over large geographic areas through the transient behavior of atmospheric planetary-scale waves. These variations drive temporally and spatially averaged exchanges of heat, momentum, and water vapor that ultimately determine growth, recruitment, and migration patterns. Recently, there have been several studies of the impact of large-scale climatic forcing on ecological systems. We review how two of the best-known climate phenomena—the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation—affect ecological patterns and processes in both marine and terrestrial systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]