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We lack synthesis of the study of local mechanisms that contribute to the persistence of populations (i.e., buffer mechanisms). Local buffer mechanisms can be integrated into a framework consisting of the two basic classes of repelling and damping mechanisms. The framework promotes a more coherent picture of buffer mechanisms and facilitates a better integration of multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. Individual-based studies are essential to improve our understanding of the role of local buffer mechanisms in shaping population dynamics and their capacities and interactions. Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present-day vegetation in the tropics is mainly characterized by forests worldwide except in tropical East Africa, where forests only occur as patches at the coast and in the uplands. These forest patches result from the peculiar aridity that is linked to the uplift of the region during the Late Cenozoic. The Late Cenozoic vegetation history of East Africa is of particular interest as it has set the scene for the contemporary events in mammal and hominin evolution. In this study, we investigate the conditions under which these forest patches could have been connected, and a previous continuous forest belt could have extended and fragmented. We apply a dynamic vegetation model with a set of climatic scenarios in which we systematically alter the present-day environmental conditions such that they would be more favourable for a continuous forest belt in tropical East Africa. We consider varying environmental factors, namely temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Our results show that all of these variables play a significant role in supporting the forest biomes and a continuous forest belt could have occurred under certain combinations of these settings. With our current knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental history of East Africa, it is likely that the region hosted these conditions during the Late Cenozoic. Recent improvements on environmental hypotheses of hominin evolution highlight the role of periods of short and extreme climate variability during the Late Cenozoic specific to East Africa in driving evolution. Our results elucidate how the forest biomes of East Africa can appear and disappear under fluctuating environmental conditions and demonstrate how this climate variability might be recognized on the biosphere level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Africa hosts a striking diversity of terrestrial ecosystems, which vary both in space and time due to complex regional topography and a dynamic climate. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems under this environmental setting can be studied with dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in a spatially explicit way. Yet, regional applications of DVMs to East Africa are rare and a comprehensive validation of such applications is missing. Here, we simulated the present-day and mid-Holocene vegetation of East Africa with the DVM, LPJ-GUESS and we conducted an exhaustive comparison of model outputs with maps of potential modern vegetation distribution, and with pollen records of local change through time. Overall, the model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of East African vegetation. To see whether running the model at higher spatial resolutions (10′ × 10′) contribute to resolve the vegetation distribution better and have a better comparison scale with the observational data (i.e. pollen data), we run the model with coarser spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) for the present-day as well. Both the area- and point-wise comparison showed that a higher spatial resolution allows to better describe spatial vegetation changes induced by the complex topography of East Africa. Our analysis of the difference between modelled mid-Holocene and modern-day vegetation showed that whether a biome shifts to another is best explained by both the amount of change in precipitation it experiences and the amount of precipitation it received originally. We also confirmed that tropical forest biomes were more sensitive to a decrease in precipitation compared to woodland and savanna biomes and that Holocene vegetation changes in East Africa were driven not only by changes in annual precipitation but also by changes in its seasonality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals that depend on ephemeral, patchily distributed prey often use public information to locate resource patches. The use of public information can lead to the aggregation of foragers at prey patches, a mechanism known as local enhancement. However, when ephemeral resources are distributed over large areas, foragers may also need to increase search efficiency, and thus apply social strategies when sampling the landscape. While sensory networks of visually oriented animals have already been confirmed, we lack an understanding of how acoustic eavesdropping adds to the formation of sensory networks. Here we radio-tracked a total of 81 aerial-hawking bats at very high spatiotemporal resolution during five sessions over 3 y, recording up to 19 individuals simultaneously. Analyses of interactive flight behavior provide conclusive evidence that bats form temporary mobile sensory networks by adjusting their movements to neighboring conspecifics while probing the airspace for prey. Complementary agent-based simulations confirmed that the observed movement patterns can lead to the formation of mobile sensory networks, and that bats located prey faster when networking than when relying only on local enhancement or searching solitarily. However, the benefit of networking diminished with decreasing group size. The combination of empirical analyses and simulations elucidates how animal groups use acoustic information to efficiently locate unpredictable and ephemeral food patches. Our results highlight that declining local populations of social foragers may thus suffer from Allee effects that increase the risk of collapses under global change scenarios, like insect decline and habitat degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use intensification is the main factor for the catastrophic decline of insect pollinators. However, land‐use intensification includes multiple processes that act across various scales and should affect pollinator guilds differently depending on their ecology. We aimed to reveal how two main pollinator guilds, wild bees and hoverflies, respond to different land‐use intensification measures, that is, arable field cover (AFC), landscape heterogeneity (LH), and functional flower composition of local plant communities as a measure of habitat quality. We sampled wild bees and hoverflies on 22 dry grassland sites within a highly intensified landscape (NE Germany) within three campaigns using pan traps. We estimated AFC and LH on consecutive radii (60–3000 m) around the dry grassland sites and estimated the local functional flower composition. Wild bee species richness and abundance was positively affected by LH and negatively by AFC at small scales (140–400 m). In contrast, hoverflies were positively affected by AFC and negatively by LH at larger scales (500–3000 m), where both landscape parameters were negatively correlated to each other. At small spatial scales, though, LH had a positive effect on hoverfly abundance. Functional flower diversity had no positive effect on pollinators, but conspicuous flowers seem to attract abundance of hoverflies. In conclusion, landscape parameters contrarily affect two pollinator guilds at different scales. The correlation of landscape parameters may influence the observed relationships between landscape parameters and pollinators. Hence, effects of land‐use intensification seem to be highly landscape‐specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one‐to‐one genotype–phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual‐based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many‐to‐one genotype–phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation—compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism—even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrient enrichment is widespread throughout grassland systems and expected to increase during the Anthropocene. Trophic interactions, like aboveground herbivory, have been shown to mitigate its effect on plant diversity. Belowground herbivory may also impact these habitats' response to nutrient enrichment, but its influence is much less understood, and likely to depend on factors such as the herbivores' preference for dominant species and the symmetry of belowground competition. If preferential toward the dominant, fastest growing species, root herbivores may reduce these species' relative fitness and support diversity during nutrient enrichment. However, as plant competition belowground is commonly considered to be symmetric, root herbivores may be less impactful than shoot herbivores because they do not reduce any competitive asymmetry between the dominant and subordinate plants. To better understand this system, we used an established, two‐layer, grassland community model to run a full‐factorially designed simulation experiment, crossing the complete removal of aboveground herbivores and belowground herbivores with nutrient enrichment. After 100 yr of simulation, we analyzed communities' diversity, competition on the individual level, as well as their resistance and recovery. The model reproduced both observed general effects of nutrient enrichment in grasslands and the short‐term trends of specific experiments. We found that belowground herbivores exacerbate the negative influence of nutrient enrichment on Shannon diversity within our model grasslands, while aboveground herbivores mitigate its effect. Indeed, data on individuals' above‐ and belowground resource uptake reveals that root herbivory reduces resource limitation belowground. As with nutrient enrichment, this shifts competition aboveground. Since shoot competition is asymmetric, with larger, taller individuals gathering disproportionate resources compared to their smaller, shorter counterparts, this shift promotes the exclusion of the smallest species. While increasing the root herbivores' preferences toward dominant species lessens their negative impact, at best they are only mildly advantageous, and they do very little reduce the negative consequences of nutrient enrichment. Because our model's belowground competition is symmetric, we hypothesize that root herbivores may be beneficial when root competition is asymmetric. Future research into belowground herbivory should account for the nature of competition belowground to better understand the herbivores' true influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early arrival at breeding grounds is of prime importance for migrating birds as it is known to enhance breeding success. Adults, males and higher quality individuals typically arrive earlier, and across years, early arrival has been linked to warmer spring temperatures. However, the mechanisms and potential costs of early arrival are not well understood.To deepen the understanding of arrival date differences between individuals and years, we studied them in light of the preceding spring migration behaviour and atmospheric conditions en route.GPS and body acceleration (ACC) data were obtained for 35 adult white storks (Ciconia ciconia) over five years (2012–2016). ACC records were translated to energy expenditure estimates (overall dynamic body acceleration; ODBA) and to behavioural modes, and GPS fixes were coupled with environmental parameters.At the interindividual level (within years), early arrival was attributed primarily to departing earlier for migration and from more northern wintering sites (closer to breeding grounds), rather than to migration speed. In fact, early‐departing birds flew slower, experienced weaker thermal uplifts and expended more energy during flight, but still arrived earlier, emphasizing the cost and the significance of early departure. Individuals that wintered further south arrived later at the breeding grounds but did not produce fewer fledglings, presumably due to positive carry‐over effects of advantageous wintering conditions (increased precipitation, vegetation productivity and daylight time). Therefore, early arrival increased breeding success only after controlling for wintering latitude. Males arrived slightly ahead of females. Between years, late arrival was linked to colder temperatures en route through two different mechanisms: stronger headwinds causing slower migration and lower thermal uplifts resulting in longer stopovers.This study showed that distinct migratory properties underlie arrival time variation within and between years. It highlighted (a) an overlooked cost of early arrival induced by unfavourable atmospheric conditions during migration, (b) an important fitness trade‐off in storks between arrival date and wintering habitat quality and (c) mechanistic explanations for the negative temperature–arrival date correlation in soaring birds. Such understanding of arrival time can facilitate forecasting migrating species responses to climate changes. Early arrival at breeding grounds enhances bird breeding success. The authors found that between individual white storks, early arrival was primarily attributed to departing earlier for spring migration, but this had a cost of more strenuous migration under unfavourable atmospheric conditions. They also described a tradeoff between arrival time and wintering site quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field- and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least ~240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning ~130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody plant species at the cost of perennial grasses, causing a strong decline in the productivity of domestic livestock production. Although recent studies indicate that fire might be of great importance for semi-arid and arid savanna dynamics, it is largely not applied in the management of semi-arid rangelands especially with regard to woody plant control. We used the eco-hydrological savanna model EcoHyD to simulate the effects of different fire management strategies on semi-arid savanna vegetation and to assess their long-term suitability for semi-arid rangeland management. Simulation results show that prescribed fires, timed to kill tree seedlings prevented shrub encroachment for a broad range of livestock densities while the possible maximum long-term cattle densities on the simulated semi-arid rangeland in Namibia increased by more than 30%. However, when grazing intensity was too high, fire management failed in preventing shrub encroachment. Our findings indicate that with regard to fire management a clear distinction between mesic and more arid savannas is necessary: While the frequency of fires is of relevance for mesic savannas, we recommend a fire management focussing on the timing of fire for semi-arid and arid savannas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To assess the ecological and economic implications of the redistributive land reform in semi-arid Namibia, we investigated to what extent land reform beneficiaries adjust herd size and herd composition according to environmental (rainfall, vegetation) and economic variables (herd size, financial assets, running costs). We performed model-based role-plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries, simulating 10 years of rangeland management. Our study revealed that the farmers surveyed mainly manage their herds according to their economic situation (herd size and account balance) but do not take environmental variability (rainfall and vegetation) into account. Further, our results indicate that, due to financial pressure, farmers are not able to apply their desired management strategies, and that owners of small farms face a higher risk of economic failure. However, farmers apply rather conservative and constant stocking rates and will thus, given the current economic limitations, likely not contribute to semi-arid savanna degradation. We conclude that land reform beneficiaries need support to be able to apply straightforward and efficient management strategies. This could be achieved by facilitating cooperation between small farming businesses and by supporting initial investment in productive cattle herds at the time of redistribution of the land. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Earth harbours an extraordinary plant phenotypic diversity 1 that is at risk from ongoing global changes 2,3 . However, it remains unknown how increasing aridity and livestock grazing pressure-two major drivers of global change 4-6 -shape the trait covariation that underlies plant phenotypic diversity 1,7 . Here we assessed how covariation among 20 chemical and morphological traits responds to aridity and grazing pressure within global drylands. Our analysis involved 133,769 trait measurements spanning 1,347 observations of 301 perennial plant species surveyed across 326 plots from 6 continents. Crossing an aridity threshold of approximately 0.7 (close to the transition between semi-arid and arid zones) led to an unexpected 88% increase in trait diversity. This threshold appeared in the presence of grazers, and moved toward lower aridity levels with increasing grazing pressure. Moreover, 57% of observed trait diversity occurred only in the most arid and grazed drylands, highlighting the phenotypic uniqueness of these extreme environments. Our work indicates that drylands act as a global reservoir of plant phenotypic diversity and challenge the pervasive view that harsh environmental conditions reduce plant trait diversity 8-10 . They also highlight that many alternative strategies may enable plants to cope with increases in environmental stress induced by climate change and land-use intensification., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Unravelling the intricate mechanisms that govern community coexistence remains a daunting challenge, particularly amidst ongoing environmental change. Individual physiology and metabolism are often studied to understand the response of individual animals to environmental change. However, this perspective is currently largely lacking in community ecology. We argue that the integration of individual metabolism into community theory can offer new insights into coexistence. We present the first individual-based metabolic community model for a terrestrial mammal community to simulate energy dynamics and home range behaviour in different environments. Using this model, we investigate how ecologically similar species coexist and maintain their energy balance under food competition. Only if individuals of different species are able to balance their incoming and outgoing energy over the long-term will they be able to coexist. After thoroughly testing and validating the model against real-world patterns such as of home range dynamics and field metabolic rates, we applied it as a case study to scenarios of habitat fragmentation - a widely discussed topic in biodiversity research. First, comparing single-species simulations with community simulations, we find that the effect of habitat fragmentation on populations is strongly context-dependent. While populations of species living alone in the landscape were mostly positively affected by fragmentation, the diversity of a community of species was highest under medium fragmentation scenarios. Under medium fragmentation, energy balance and reproductive investment were also most similar among species. We therefore suggest that similarity in energy balance among species promotes coexistence. We argue that energetics should be part of community ecology theory, as the relative energetic status and reproductive investment can reveal why and under what environmental conditions coexistence is likely to occur. As a result, landscapes can potentially be protected and designed to maximize coexistence. The metabolic community model presented here can be a promising tool to investigate other scenarios of environmental change or other species communities to further disentangle global change effects and preserve biodiversity., (© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.)

Grazing represents the most extensive use of land worldwide. Yet its impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain because pervasive interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil properties, and biodiversity may occur but have never been addressed simultaneously. Using a standardized survey at 98 sites across six continents, we show that interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil, and biodiversity are critical to explain the delivery of fundamental ecosystem services across drylands worldwide. Increasing grazing pressure reduced ecosystem service delivery in warmer and species-poor drylands, whereas positive effects of grazing were observed in colder and species-rich areas. Considering interactions between grazing and local abiotic and biotic factors is key for understanding the fate of dryland ecosystems under climate change and increasing human pressure.

Aim: Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert-based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert-based information with detailed empirical evidence. Here, we compared expert-based habitat suitability information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with habitat suitability information derived from GPS-tracking data of 1,498 individuals from 49 mammal species., Location: Worldwide., Time Period: 1998-2021., Major Taxa Studied: Forty-nine terrestrial mammal species., Methods: Using GPS data, we estimated two measures of habitat suitability for each individual animal: proportional habitat use (proportion of GPS locations within a habitat type), and selection ratio (habitat use relative to its availability). For each individual we then evaluated whether the GPS-based habitat suitability measures were in agreement with the IUCN data. To that end, we calculated the probability that the ranking of empirical habitat suitability measures was in agreement with IUCN's classification into suitable, marginal and unsuitable habitat types., Results: IUCN habitat suitability data were in accordance with the GPS data (> 95% probability of agreement) for 33 out of 49 species based on proportional habitat use estimates and for 25 out of 49 species based on selection ratios. In addition, 37 and 34 species had a > 50% probability of agreement based on proportional habitat use and selection ratios, respectively., Main Conclusions: We show how GPS-tracking data can be used to evaluate IUCN habitat suitability data. Our findings indicate that for the majority of species included in this study, it is appropriate to use IUCN habitat suitability data in macroecological studies. Furthermore, we show that GPS-tracking data can be used to identify and prioritize species and habitat types for re-evaluation of IUCN habitat suitability data., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflict of interest to declare., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Accurately quantifying species' area requirements is a prerequisite for effective area-based conservation. This typically involves collecting tracking data on species of interest and then conducting home-range analyses. Problematically, autocorrelation in tracking data can result in space needs being severely underestimated. Based on the previous work, we hypothesized the magnitude of underestimation varies with body mass, a relationship that could have serious conservation implications. To evaluate this hypothesis for terrestrial mammals, we estimated home-range areas with global positioning system (GPS) locations from 757 individuals across 61 globally distributed mammalian species with body masses ranging from 0.4 to 4000 kg. We then applied block cross-validation to quantify bias in empirical home-range estimates. Area requirements of mammals <10 kg were underestimated by a mean approximately15%, and species weighing approximately100 kg were underestimated by approximately50% on average. Thus, we found area estimation was subject to autocorrelation-induced bias that was worse for large species. Combined with the fact that extinction risk increases as body mass increases, the allometric scaling of bias we observed suggests the most threatened species are also likely to be those with the least accurate home-range estimates. As a correction, we tested whether data thinning or autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation minimized the scaling effect of autocorrelation on area estimates. Data thinning required an approximately93% data loss to achieve statistical independence with 95% confidence and was, therefore, not a viable solution. In contrast, autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation resulted in consistently accurate estimates irrespective of mass. When relating body mass to home range size, we detected that correcting for autocorrelation resulted in a scaling exponent significantly >1, meaning the scaling of the relationship changed substantially at the upper end of the mass spectrum., (© 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Plants located adjacent to agricultural fields are important for maintaining biodiversity in semi-natural landscapes. To avoid undesired impacts on these plants due to herbicide application on the arable fields, regulatory risk assessments are conducted prior to registration to ensure proposed uses of plant protection products do not present an unacceptable risk. The current risk assessment approach for these non-target terrestrial plants (NTTPs) examines impacts at the individual-level as a surrogate approach for protecting the plant community due to the inherent difficulties of directly assessing population or community level impacts. However, modelling approaches are suitable higher tier tools to upscale individual-level effects to community level. IBC-grass is a sophisticated plant community model, which has already been applied in several studies. However, as it is a console application software, it was not deemed sufficiently user-friendly for risk managers and assessors to be conveniently operated without prior expertise in ecological models. Here, we present a user-friendly and open source graphical user interface (GUI) for the application of IBC-grass in regulatory herbicide risk assessment. It facilitates the use of the plant community model for predicting long-term impacts of herbicide applications on NTTP communities. The GUI offers two options to integrate herbicide impacts: (1) dose responses based on current standard experiments (acc. to testing guidelines) and (2) based on specific effect intensities. Both options represent suitable higher tier options for future risk assessments of NTTPs as well as for research on the ecological relevance of effects., Competing Interests: The project was funded by Bayer AG. Authors employed by Bayer AG, namely SH, CM, TP, SM, worked on preparing this manuscript (see Author contributions). This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Movement ecology aims to provide common terminology and an integrative framework of movement research across all groups of organisms. Yet such work has focused on unitary organisms so far, and thus the important group of filamentous fungi has not been considered in this context. With the exception of spore dispersal, movement in filamentous fungi has not been integrated into the movement ecology field. At the same time, the field of fungal ecology has been advancing research on topics like informed growth , mycelial translocations , or fungal highways using its own terminology and frameworks, overlooking the theoretical developments within movement ecology. We provide a conceptual and terminological framework for interdisciplinary collaboration between these two disciplines, and show how both can benefit from closer links: We show how placing the knowledge from fungal biology and ecology into the framework of movement ecology can inspire both theoretical and empirical developments, eventually leading towards a better understanding of fungal ecology and community assembly. Conversely, by a greater focus on movement specificities of filamentous fungi, movement ecology stands to benefit from the challenge to evolve its concepts and terminology towards even greater universality. We show how our concept can be applied for other modular organisms (such as clonal plants and slime molds), and how this can lead towards comparative studies with the relationship between organismal movement and ecosystems in the focus., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s). 2019.)

Background: Organisms are expected to respond to changing environmental conditions through local adaptation, range shift or local extinction. The process of local adaptation can occur by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity, and becomes especially relevant when dispersal abilities or possibilities are somehow constrained. For genetic changes to occur, mutations are the ultimate source of variation and the mutation rate in terms of a mutator locus can be subject to evolutionary change. Recent findings suggest that the evolution of the mutation rate in a sexual species can advance invasion speed and promote adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Following this idea, this work uses an individual-based model approach to investigate if the mutation rate can also evolve in a sexual species experiencing different conditions of directional climate change, under different scenarios of colored stochastic environmental noise, probability of recombination and of beneficial mutations. The color of the noise mimicked investigating the evolutionary dynamics of the mutation rate in different habitats., Results: The results suggest that the mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change scenarios can evolve and reach relatively high values mainly under conditions of complete linkage of the mutator locus and the adaptation locus. In contrast, when they are unlinked, the mutation rate can slightly increase only under scenarios where at least 50% of arising mutations are beneficial and the rate of environmental change is relatively fast. This result is robust under different scenarios of stochastic environmental noise, which supports the observation of no systematic variation in the mutation rate among organisms experiencing different habitats., Conclusions: Given that 50% beneficial mutations may be an unrealistic assumption, and that recombination is ubiquitous in sexual species, the evolution of an elevated mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change might be rather unlikely. Furthermore, when the percentage of beneficial mutations and the population size are small, sexual species (especially multicellular ones) producing few offspring may be expected to react to changing environments not by adaptive genetic change, but mainly through plasticity. Without the ability for a plastic response, such species may become - at least locally - extinct.

Early arrival at breeding grounds is of prime importance for migrating birds as it is known to enhance breeding success. Adults, males and higher quality individuals typically arrive earlier, and across years, early arrival has been linked to warmer spring temperatures. However, the mechanisms and potential costs of early arrival are not well understood. To deepen the understanding of arrival date differences between individuals and years, we studied them in light of the preceding spring migration behaviour and atmospheric conditions en route. GPS and body acceleration (ACC) data were obtained for 35 adult white storks (Ciconia ciconia) over five years (2012-2016). ACC records were translated to energy expenditure estimates (overall dynamic body acceleration; ODBA) and to behavioural modes, and GPS fixes were coupled with environmental parameters. At the interindividual level (within years), early arrival was attributed primarily to departing earlier for migration and from more northern wintering sites (closer to breeding grounds), rather than to migration speed. In fact, early-departing birds flew slower, experienced weaker thermal uplifts and expended more energy during flight, but still arrived earlier, emphasizing the cost and the significance of early departure. Individuals that wintered further south arrived later at the breeding grounds but did not produce fewer fledglings, presumably due to positive carry-over effects of advantageous wintering conditions (increased precipitation, vegetation productivity and daylight time). Therefore, early arrival increased breeding success only after controlling for wintering latitude. Males arrived slightly ahead of females. Between years, late arrival was linked to colder temperatures en route through two different mechanisms: stronger headwinds causing slower migration and lower thermal uplifts resulting in longer stopovers. This study showed that distinct migratory properties underlie arrival time variation within and between years. It highlighted (a) an overlooked cost of early arrival induced by unfavourable atmospheric conditions during migration, (b) an important fitness trade-off in storks between arrival date and wintering habitat quality and (c) mechanistic explanations for the negative temperature-arrival date correlation in soaring birds. Such understanding of arrival time can facilitate forecasting migrating species responses to climate changes., (© 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.)

Resilience is a major research focus covering a wide range of topics from biodiversity conservation to ecosystem (service) management. Model simulations can assess the resilience of, for example, plant species, measured as the return time to conditions prior to a disturbance. This requires process-based models (PBM) that implement relevant processes such as regeneration and reproduction and thus successfully reproduce transient dynamics after disturbances. Such models are often complex and thus limited to either short-term or small-scale applications, whereas many research questions require species predictions across larger spatial and temporal scales. We suggest a framework to couple a PBM and a statistical species distribution model (SDM), which transfers the results of a resilience analysis by the PBM to SDM predictions. The resulting hybrid model combines the advantages of both approaches: the convenient applicability of SDMs and the relevant process detail of PBMs in abrupt environmental change situations. First, we simulate dynamic responses of species communities to a disturbance event with a PBM. We aggregate the response behavior in two resilience metrics: return time and amplitude of the response peak. These metrics are then used to complement long-term SDM projections with dynamic short-term responses to disturbance. To illustrate our framework, we investigate the effect of abrupt short-term groundwater level and salinity changes on coastal vegetation at the German Baltic Sea. We found two example species to be largely resilient, and, consequently, modifications of SDM predictions consisted mostly of smoothing out peaks in the occurrence probability that were not confirmed by the PBM. Discrepancies between SDM- and PBM-predicted species responses were caused by community dynamics simulated in the PBM and absent from the SDM. Although demonstrated with boosted regression trees (SDM) and an existing individual-based model, IBC-grass (PBM), our flexible framework can easily be applied to other PBM and SDM types, as well as other definitions of short-term disturbances or long-term trends of environmental change. Thus, our framework allows accounting for biological feedbacks in the response to short- and long-term environmental changes as a major advancement in predictive vegetation modeling., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Current herbicide risk assessment guidelines for nontarget terrestrial plants require testing effects on young, vulnerable life stages (i.e., seedling emergence [and subsequent growth] and vegetative vigor [growth and dry wt]) but not directly on the reproduction of plants. However, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has proposed that effects on reproduction might be considered when evaluating the potential effects on plants. We adapted the plant community model for grassland (IBC-grass) to give insight into the current debate on the sensitivity of reproductive versus vegetative endpoints in ecological risk assessment. In an extensive sensitivity analysis of this model, we compared plant attributes potentially affected by herbicides and the consequences for long-term plant population dynamics and plant diversity. This evaluation was implemented by reducing reproductive as well as vegetative endpoints by certain percentages (e.g., 10-90%) as a theoretical assumption. Plant mortality and seed sterility (i.e., inability of seeds to germinate) were the most sensitive attributes. Our results indicated that effects on seed production at off-field exposure rates must be very strong to have an impact on the risk assessment. Otherwise, effects on seed production are compensated for by the soil seed bank. The present study highlights the usefulness of community level modeling studies to support regulators in their decisions on the appropriate risk assessment endpoints and provides confidence in their assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1707-1722. © 2018 SETAC., (© 2018 SETAC.)

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission., (Copyright © 2018, The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level., Results: We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data., Conclusion: The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments-measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level-can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment.

Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning.

Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field- and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least ~240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning ~130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Migration conveys an immense challenge, especially for juvenile birds coping with enduring and risky journeys shortly after fledging. Accordingly, juveniles exhibit considerably lower survival rates compared to adults, particularly during migration. Juvenile white storks (Ciconia ciconia), which are known to rely on adults during their first fall migration presumably for navigational purposes, also display much lower annual survival than adults. Using detailed GPS and body acceleration data, we examined the patterns and potential causes of age-related differences in fall migration properties of white storks by comparing first-year juveniles and adults. We compared juvenile and adult parameters of movement, behaviour and energy expenditure (estimated from overall dynamic body acceleration) and placed this in the context of the juveniles' lower survival rate. Juveniles used flapping flight vs. soaring flight 23% more than adults and were estimated to expend 14% more energy during flight. Juveniles did not compensate for their higher flight costs by increased refuelling or resting during migration. When juveniles and adults migrated together in the same flock, the juvenile flew mostly behind the adult and was left behind when they separated. Juveniles showed greater improvement in flight efficiency throughout migration compared to adults which appears crucial because juveniles exhibiting higher flight costs suffered increased mortality. Our findings demonstrate the conflict between the juveniles' inferior flight skills and their urge to keep up with mixed adult-juvenile flocks. We suggest that increased flight costs are an important proximate cause of juvenile mortality in white storks and likely in other soaring migrants and that natural selection is operating on juvenile variation in flight efficiency., (© 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.)

Although many birds are socially monogamous, most (>75%) studied species are not strictly genetically monogamous, especially under high breeding density. We used molecular tools to reevaluate the reproductive strategy of the socially monogamous white stork (Ciconia ciconia) and examined local density effects. DNA samples of nestlings (Germany, Spain) were genotyped and assigned relationships using a two-program maximum likelihood classification. Relationships were successfully classified in 79.2% of German (n = 120) and 84.8% of Spanish (n = 59) nests. For each population respectively, 76.8% (n = 73) and 66.0% (n = 33) of nests contained only full-siblings, 10.5% (n = 10) and 18.0% (n = 9) had half-siblings (at least one nestling with a different parent), 3.2% (n = 3) and 10.0% (n = 5) had unrelated nestlings (at least two nestlings, each with different parents), and 9.5% (n = 9) and 6.0% (n = 3) had "not full-siblings" (could not differentiate between latter two cases). These deviations from strict monogamy place the white stork in the 59(th) percentile for extra-pair paternity among studied bird species. Although high breeding density generally increases extra-pair paternity, we found no significant association with this species' mating strategies. Thus although genetic monogamy is indeed prominent in the white stork, extra-pair paternity is fairly common compared to other bird species and cannot be explained by breeding density.

Small scale distribution of insect root herbivores may promote plant species diversity by creating patches of different herbivore pressure. However, determinants of small scale distribution of insect root herbivores, and impact of land use intensity on their small scale distribution are largely unknown. We sampled insect root herbivores and measured vegetation parameters and soil water content along transects in grasslands of different management intensity in three regions in Germany. We calculated community-weighted mean plant traits to test whether the functional plant community composition determines the small scale distribution of insect root herbivores. To analyze spatial patterns in plant species and trait composition and insect root herbivore abundance we computed Mantel correlograms. Insect root herbivores mainly comprised click beetle (Coleoptera, Elateridae) larvae (43%) in the investigated grasslands. Total insect root herbivore numbers were positively related to community-weighted mean traits indicating high plant growth rates and biomass (specific leaf area, reproductive- and vegetative plant height), and negatively related to plant traits indicating poor tissue quality (leaf C/N ratio). Generalist Elaterid larvae, when analyzed independently, were also positively related to high plant growth rates and furthermore to root dry mass, but were not related to tissue quality. Insect root herbivore numbers were not related to plant cover, plant species richness and soil water content. Plant species composition and to a lesser extent plant trait composition displayed spatial autocorrelation, which was not influenced by land use intensity. Insect root herbivore abundance was not spatially autocorrelated. We conclude that in semi-natural grasslands with a high share of generalist insect root herbivores, insect root herbivores affiliate with large, fast growing plants, presumably because of availability of high quantities of food. Affiliation of insect root herbivores with large, fast growing plants may counteract dominance of those species, thus promoting plant diversity.

Movement of organisms is one of the key mechanisms shaping biodiversity, e.g. the distribution of genes, individuals and species in space and time. Recent technological and conceptual advances have improved our ability to assess the causes and consequences of individual movement, and led to the emergence of the new field of 'movement ecology'. Here, we outline how movement ecology can contribute to the broad field of biodiversity research, i.e. the study of processes and patterns of life among and across different scales, from genes to ecosystems, and we propose a conceptual framework linking these hitherto largely separated fields of research. Our framework builds on the concept of movement ecology for individuals, and demonstrates its importance for linking individual organismal movement with biodiversity. First, organismal movements can provide 'mobile links' between habitats or ecosystems, thereby connecting resources, genes, and processes among otherwise separate locations. Understanding these mobile links and their impact on biodiversity will be facilitated by movement ecology, because mobile links can be created by different modes of movement (i.e., foraging, dispersal, migration) that relate to different spatiotemporal scales and have differential effects on biodiversity. Second, organismal movements can also mediate coexistence in communities, through 'equalizing' and 'stabilizing' mechanisms. This novel integrated framework provides a conceptual starting point for a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics in light of individual movement and space-use behavior across spatiotemporal scales. By illustrating this framework with examples, we argue that the integration of movement ecology and biodiversity research will also enhance our ability to conserve diversity at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels.

Disturbances' role in shaping communities is well documented but highly disputed. We suggest replacing the overused two-trait trade-off approach with a functional group scheme, constructed from combinations of four key traits that represent four classes of species' responses to disturbances. Using model results and field observations from sites affected by two highly different disturbances, we demonstrated that popular dichotomous trade-offs are not sufficient to explain community dynamics, even if some emerge under certain conditions. Without disturbances, competition was only sufficient to predict species survival but not relative success, which required some escape mechanism (e.g., long-term dormancy). With highly predictable and large-scale disturbances, successful species showed a combination of high individual tolerance to disturbance and, more surprisingly, high competitive ability. When disturbances were less predictable, high individual tolerance and long-term seed dormancy were favored, due to higher environmental uncertainty. Our study demonstrates that theories relying on a small number of predefined trade-offs among traits (e.g., competition-colonization trade-off) may lead to unrealistic results. We suggest that the understanding of disturbance-community relationships can be significantly improved by employing sets of relevant trait assemblies instead of the currently common approach in which trade-offs are assumed in advance.

Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses., (© 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Background: Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research., Results: Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably., Conclusion: The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

Morphological plasticity is a striking characteristic of plants in natural communities. In the context of foraging behavior particularly, root plasticity has been documented for numerous species. Root plasticity is known to mitigate competitive interactions by reducing the overlap of the individuals' rhizospheres. But despite its obvious effect on resource acquisition, plasticity has been generally neglected in previous empirical and theoretical studies estimating interaction intensity among plants. In this study, we developed a semi-mechanistic model that addresses this shortcoming by introducing the idea of compensatory growth into the classical-zone-of influence (ZOI) and field-of-neighborhood (FON) approaches. The model parameters describing the belowground plastic sphere of influence (PSI) were parameterized using data from an accompanying field experiment. Measurements of the uptake of a stable nutrient analogue at distinct distances to the neighboring plants showed that the study species responded plastically to belowground competition by avoiding overlap of individuals' rhizospheres. An unexpected finding was that the sphere of influence of the study species Bromus hordeaceus could be best described by a unimodal function of distance to the plant's center and not with a continuously decreasing function as commonly assumed. We employed the parameterized model to investigate the interplay between plasticity and two other important factors determining the intensity of competitive interactions: overall plant density and the distribution of individuals in space. The simulation results confirm that the reduction of competition intensity due to morphological plasticity strongly depends on the spatial structure of the competitive environment. We advocate the use of semi-mechanistic simulations that explicitly consider morphological plasticity to improve our mechanistic understanding of plant interactions.

Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

1. In most stochastic models addressing the persistence of small populations, environmental noise is included by imposing a synchronized effect of the environment on all individuals. However, buffer mechanisms are likely to exist that may counteract this synchronization to some degree. 2. We have studied whether the flexibility in the mating system, which has been observed in some bird species, is a potential mechanism counteracting the synchronization of environmental fluctuations. Our study organism is the lesser spotted woodpecker Picoides minor (Linnaeus), a generally monogamous species. However, facultative polyandry, where one female mates with two males with separate nests, was observed in years with male-biased sex ratio. 3. We constructed an individual-based model from data and observations of a population in Taunus, Germany. We tested the impact of three behavioural scenarios on population persistence: (1) strict monogamy; (2) polyandry without costs; and (3) polyandry assuming costs in terms of lower survival and reproductive success for secondary males. We assumed that polyandry occurs only in years with male-biased sex ratio and only for females with favourable breeding conditions. 4. Even low rates of polyandry had a strong positive effect on population persistence. The increase of persistence with carrying capacity was slower in the monogamous scenario, indicating strong environmental noise. In the polyandrous scenarios, the increase of persistence was stronger, indicating a buffer mechanism. In the polyandrous scenarios, populations had a higher mean population size, a lower variation in number of individuals, and recovered faster after a population breakdown. Presuming a realistic polyandry rate and costs for polyandry, there was still a strong effect of polyandry on persistence. 5. The results show that polyandry and in general flexibility in mating systems is a buffer mechanism that can significantly reduce the impact of environmental and demographic noise in small populations. Consequently, we suggest that even behaviour that seems to be exceptional should be considered explicitly when predicting the persistence of populations.

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

The impact of temporally correlated fluctuating environments (coloured noise) on the extinction risk of populations has become a main focus in theoretical population ecology. In this study we particularly focus on the extinction risk in strongly correlated environments. Here, we found that, in contrast to moderate auto-correlation, the extinction risk was highly dependent on the process of noise generation, in particular on the method of variance scaling. Such scaling is commonly applied to avoid variance-driven biases when comparing the extinction risk under white and coloured noise. We show that for strong auto-correlation often-used scaling techniques lead to a high variability in the variances of the resulting time series and thus to deviations in the subsequent extinction risk. Therefore, we present an alternative scaling method that always delivers the target variance, even in the case of strong auto-correlation. In contrast to earlier techniques, our very intuitive method is not bound to auto-regressive processes but can be applied to all types of coloured noises. We strongly recommend our method to generate time series when the target of interest is the effect of noise colour on extinction risk not obscured by any variance effects.

Background: In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity., Results: For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30-40%, (2) a decrease by 5-15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10-20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Nino/La Nina phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity., Conclusions: We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment threatening savanna rangeland conditions and regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the negative effects found for positive auto-correlated rainfall support current ecological theory stating that periodically fluctuating environments can reduce population viability because species suffer disproportionately from poor environmental conditions.

There is concern about the lack of recruitment of Acacia trees in the Negev desert of Israel. We have developed three models to estimate the frequency of recruitment necessary for long-term population survival (i.e. positive average population growth for 1,000 years and < 10% probability of extinction). Two models assume purely episodic recruitment based on the general notion that recruitment in arid environments is highly episodic. They differ in that the deterministic model investigates average dynamics while the stochastic model does not. Studies indicating that recruitment episodes in arid environments have been overemphasized motivated the development of the third model. This semi-stochastic model simulates a mixture of continuous and episodic recruitment. Model analysis was done analytically for the deterministic model and via running model simulations for the stochastic and semi-stochastic models. The deterministic and stochastic models predict that, on average, 2.2 and 3.7 recruitment events per century, respectively, are necessary to sustain the population. According to the semi-stochastic model, 1.6 large recruitment events per century and an annual probability of 50% that a small recruitment event occurs are needed. A consequence of purely episodic recruitment is that all recruitment episodes produce extremely large numbers of recruits (i.e. at odds with field observations), an evaluation that holds even when considering that rare events must be large. Thus, the semi-stochastic model appears to be the most realistic model. Comparing the prediction of the semi-stochastic model to field observations in the Negev desert shows that the absence of observations of extremely large recruitment events is no reason for concern. However, the almost complete absence of small recruitment events is a serious reason for concern. The lack of recruitment may be due to decreased densities of large mammalian herbivores and might be further exacerbated by possible changes in climate, both in terms of average precipitation and the temporal distribution of rain.

Two field trials to reduce the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes have been conducted in recent years. Although both trials reduced prevalence considerably, they failed to eradicate the parasite in the study region. Following the control trial in northern Germany, prevalence recovered unexpectedly and rapidly, reaching pre-control levels five quarters (15 months) after the end of control. To understand the internal dynamics of the parasite-host system's reaction to control, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model, Echi. The simulation model incorporates the information available concerning fox tapeworm population dynamics. Using epidemiological parameters to adjust pre-control prevalence, the model predicts the temporal evolution of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in controlled foxes without departing from the range of uncertainty of the field data. However, the model does not predict the rapid pre-control recovery observed in the field trial. The deviation of the model's prediction from field data indicates the involvement of processes not yet taken into account. We modified the model step by step to mimic processes with the potential to cause the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in foxes. Neither the longevity of tapeworm eggs nor the migratory behaviour of foxes showed any influence on the post-control reaction of the parasite-host system. However, landscape structures leading to a heterogeneous distribution of infected foxes have the potential to alter the system's reaction to control. If infected foxes are concentrated in multiple clusters in the landscape, the model prediction tallied with the range of uncertainty of the field data. Such spatial distribution of infected foxes may be caused by differential abiotic conditions influencing the survival of tapeworm eggs. The model was found to comply best with field data if the foxes acquire partial immunity by being exposed to the fox tapeworm. Both hypotheses explaining the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis observed in the fox population were supported by field data. Both hypotheses have far-reaching consequences for future control trials. The spatial aggregation of infected foxes would enable control efforts to be concentrated on these highly infected areas. However, the acquisition of immunity acts as a buffer to control, necessitating intensified control measures.

Field trials to control the small fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis failed to reduce the prevalence of the parasite persistently. With the experience from this empirical work, a simulation model for the population dynamics of the small fox tapeworm was developed. This model is used to examine the effect of different control strategies. Sufficient control duration is able to eradicate the parasite in simulation experiments. Baiting intervals of 4 or 6 weeks were found to be more efficient than shorter or longer intervals. The strategy used in field trials showed no sustainable effect in any of the simulation experiments. The applicability of simulation models for the planning of control measures for wildlife diseases is discussed.