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This paper presents an analysis of trends in sexual activity by marital status and age, and their associations with contraceptive use. Understanding levels of, and trends in, sexual activity is important for assessing the needs for family planning services and for analysing commonly used family planning indicators. Data were taken from 220 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) and 62 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs) to provide insights into sexual activity by marital status and age in a total of 94 countries in different regions of the world. The results show the sensitivity of the indicator with respect to the definition of currently sexually active, based on the timing of last sexual intercourse (during the last 4 weeks, 3 months, or 1 year). Substantial diversity in sexual activity by marital status and age was demonstrated across countries. The proportion of married women reporting recent sexual activity (sexual intercourse during the last 4 weeks) ranged from 50% to 90%. The proportion of unmarried women reporting recent sexual activity did not exceed 50% in any of the 94 countries with available data, but showed substantial regional differences: it appeared to be rare in Asia and extremely varied within Africa, Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean. Among married women, sexual activity did not vary much by age group, while for unmarried women, there was an inverted U-pattern by age, with the youngest age group (15-19 years old) having the lowest proportion sexually active. The proportion of women who reported currently using contraception and reported not being sexually active varied by the contraceptive method used and was overall much greater among unmarried women. The evidence presented in this paper can be used to improve family planning policies and programmes to serve the diverse needs, for example regarding method choice and service provision, of unmarried women.

Nowadays, world rankings are promoted and used by international agencies, governments and corporations to evaluate country performances in a specific domain, often providing a guideline for decision makers. Although rankings allow a direct and quantitative comparison of countries, sometimes they provide a rather oversimplified representation, in which relevant aspects related to socio-economic development are either not properly considered or still analyzed in silos. In an increasingly data-driven society, a new generation of cutting-edge technologies is breaking data silos, enabling new use of public indicators to generate value for multiple stakeholders. We propose a complex network framework based on publicly available indicators to extract important insight underlying global rankings, thus adding value and significance to knowledge provided by these rankings. This approach enables the unsupervised identification of communities of countries, establishing a more targeted, fair and meaningful criterion to detect similarities. Hence, the performance of states in global rankings can be assessed based on their development level. We believe that these evaluations can be crucial in the interpretation of global rankings, making comparison between countries more significant and useful for citizens and governments and creating ecosystems for new opportunities for development.

We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household's decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243-1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people "abandoning the freedom to breed." That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Background: Expanding access to contraception and ensuring that need for family planning is satisfied are essential for achieving universal access to reproductive healthcare services, as called for in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Monitoring progress towards these outcomes is well established for women of reproductive age (15-49 years) who are married or in a union (MWRA). For those who are not, limited data and variability in data sources and indicator definitions make monitoring challenging. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide data and harmonised estimates that enable monitoring for all women of reproductive age (15-49 years) (WRA), including unmarried women (UWRA). We seek to quantify the gaps that remain in meeting family-planning needs among all WRA., Methods and Findings: In a systematic analysis, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of family-planning indicators among WRA from 1,247 nationally representative surveys. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model with country-specific time trends to estimate these indicators, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), for 185 countries. We produced estimates from 1990 to 2019 and projections from 2019 to 2030 of contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning among MWRA, UWRA, and all WRA, taking into account the changing proportions that were married or in a union. The model accounted for differences in the prevalence of sexual activity among UWRA across countries. Among 1.9 billion WRA in 2019, 1.11 billion (95% UI 1.07-1.16) have need for family planning; of those, 842 million (95% UI 800-893) use modern contraception, and 270 million (95% UI 246-301) have unmet need for modern methods. Globally, UWRA represented 15.7% (95% UI 13.4%-19.4%) of all modern contraceptive users and 16.0% (95% UI 12.9%-22.1%) of women with unmet need for modern methods in 2019. The proportion of the need for family planning satisfied by modern methods, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicator 3.7.1, was 75.7% (95% UI 73.2%-78.0%) globally, yet less than half of the need for family planning was met in Middle and Western Africa. Projections to 2030 indicate an increase in the number of women with need for family planning to 1.19 billion (95% UI 1.13-1.26) and in the number of women using modern contraception to 918 million (95% UI 840-1,001). The main limitations of the study are as follows: (i) the uncertainty surrounding estimates for countries with little or no data is large; and (ii) although some adjustments were made, underreporting of contraceptive use and needs is likely, especially among UWRA., Conclusions: In this study, we observed that large gaps remain in meeting family-planning needs. The projected increase in the number of women with need for family planning will create challenges to expand family-planning services fast enough to fulfil the growing need. Monitoring of family-planning indicators for all women, not just MWRA, is essential for accurately monitoring progress towards universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services-including family planning-by 2030 in the SDG era with its emphasis on 'leaving no one behind.', Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female live births) imbalance in parts of the world over the past few decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination, and fertility decline. Estimation of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of unknown SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with SRB observations. There are needs for reproducible methods to construct SRB estimates with uncertainty, and to assess SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion. We compile an extensive database from vital registration systems, censuses and surveys with 10,835 observations, and 16,602 country-years of information from 202 countries. We develop Bayesian methods for SRB estimation for all countries from 1950 to 2017. We model the SRB regional and national reference levels, the fluctuation around national reference levels, and the inflation. The estimated regional reference levels range from 1.031 (95% uncertainty interval [1.027; 1.036]) in sub-Saharan Africa to 1.063 [1.055; 1.072] in southeastern Asia, 1.063 [1.054; 1.072] in eastern Asia, and 1.067 [1.058; 1.077] in Oceania. We identify 12 countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB imbalance during 1970-2017, resulting in 23.1 [19.0; 28.3] million missing female births globally. The majority of those missing female births are in China, with 11.9 [8.5; 15.8] million, and in India, with 10.6 [8.0; 13.6] million., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent.

Objectives: To investigate subtypes of successful aging (SA) based on concordance and discordance between self-rated and researcher-defined measures and their associations with demographic, psychosocial, and life satisfaction factors., Method: We used multinomial logistic regression models to analyze 2013 cross-sectional survey data from 1,962 persons aged 65 and older in Shanghai that measured self-rated successful aging (SSA) with a single global assessment and researcher-defined successful aging (RSA) with a cumulative deficit index reflecting physical, physiological, cognitive, psychological, and social engagement domains. We generated four subtypes based on these two dichotomous variables: nonsuccessful aging (non-SA; meeting neither the criterion of RSA nor the criterion of SSA), RSA-only (meeting the criterion of RSA-only but not the criterion of SSA), SSA-only (meeting the criterion of SSA-only but not the criterion of RSA), and both-successful aging (both-SA; meeting both criteria of RSA and SSA)., Results: In the sample, 32% were nonsuccessful agers, 7% RSA-only, 34% SSA-only, and 27% successful agers. Female gender and older age were associated with lower likelihood of RSA-only and both-SA relative to non-SA, but with greater likelihood of SSA-only. Good socioeconomic conditions and social networks were associated with greater likelihood of SSA-only and both-SA relative to non-SA or RSA-only. Satisfaction with life domains was robustly and positively associated with good successful aging outcomes., Discussion: Researcher-defined successful aging and self-rated successful aging are different measures with distinct social correlates. Subtypes of concordance and discordance provide a more holistic biopsychosocial conceptualization of successful aging., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The aim of this study is to examine the long-term association between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and mental and physical health, especially with conditions related to hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis dysfunction such as mood disorders, cardiovascular disorders, gastrointestinal disorders, pain disorders, and measures of frailty and functional mobility. In addition, we examined the impact of CSA on self-reported health and healthcare utilization., Methods: Data from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing were employed (N = 8,178). The effects of CSA on mental health, physical health, and healthcare utilization in old age population were estimated by ordinal least square, logistic regression, and Poisson regression, controlling for demographic factors, childhood adversities, and behavioral health., Results: Six percent of respondents reported CSA with little variation by gender. A significant association was found between CSA and mental health. Those who reported CSA were more likely to have depression, anxiety, worry, loneliness, and low quality of life. Poor self-reported health, lung disease, arthritis, peptic ulcer, chronic pain as well as high levels of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein were associated with CSA. Further, those who reported CSA were more likely to report doctor and hospital visits than those without a history of CSA., Conclusions: Findings from the present study show that CSA has significant long-term mental and physical consequences, whereby early life events are linked to later life health outcomes.

This study analyzes the unique datasets of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey using logistic regression and controlling for various covariates. Our analyses clearly demonstrate that disabled older parents are more satisfied with care provided by daughters than sons and that older parents enjoy greater filial piety from and better relationships with daughters than sons. The daughter-advantages of enjoying greater filial piety from and better relationships with children are stronger among the oldest-old aged 80+ than the young-old aged 65-79, and surprisingly more profound in rural areas than urban areas, while son-preference is much more prevalent among rural residents. We also discuss why China's rigorous fertility policy until October-2015 and much less-developed pension system in rural areas substantially contribute to sustaining traditional son-preference and a high sex ratio at birth (SRB) when fertility is low. We recommend China take integrative public health policy actions of informing the public that having daughter(s) is beneficial for old age care, developing the rural pension system and implementing the universal two-child policy as soon as possible. We believe that these policy actions would help to reduce son-preference, bring down the high SRB, and enable more future elderly parents to enjoy better care from their children and healthier lives., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting Interests The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations., (Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Background: Under natural circumstances, the sex ratio of male to female mortality up to the age of 5 years is greater than one but sex discrimination can change sex ratios. The estimation of mortality by sex and identification of countries with outlying levels is challenging because of issues with data availability and quality, and because sex ratios might vary naturally based on differences in mortality levels and associated cause of death distributions., Methods: For this systematic analysis, we estimated country-specific mortality sex ratios for infants, children aged 1-4 years, and children under the age of 5 years (under 5s) for all countries from 1990 (or the earliest year of data collection) to 2012 using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model, accounting for various data quality issues and assessing the uncertainty in sex ratios. We simultaneously estimated the global relation between sex ratios and mortality levels and constructed estimates of expected and excess female mortality rates to identify countries with outlying sex ratios., Findings: Global sex ratios in 2012 were 1·13 (90% uncertainty interval 1·12-1·15) for infants, 0·95 (0·93-0·97) for children aged 1-5 years, and 1·08 (1·07-1·09) for under 5s, an increase since 1990 of 0·01 (-0·01 to 0·02) for infants, 0·04 (0·02 to 0·06) for children aged 1-4 years, and 0·02 (0·01 to 0·04) for under 5s. Levels and trends varied across regions and countries. Sex ratios were lowest in southern Asia for 1990 and 2012 for all age groups. Highest sex ratios were seen in developed regions and the Caucasus and central Asia region. Decreasing mortality was associated with increasing sex ratios, except at very low infant mortality, where sex ratios decreased with total mortality. For 2012, we identified 15 countries with outlying under-5 sex ratios, of which ten countries had female mortality higher than expected (Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Jordan, Nepal, and Pakistan). Although excess female mortality has decreased since 1990 for the vast majority of countries with outlying sex ratios, the ratios of estimated to expected female mortality did not change substantially for most countries, and worsened for India., Interpretation: Important differences exist between boys and girls with respect to survival up to the age of 5 years. Survival chances tend to improve more rapidly for girls compared with boys as total mortality decreases, with a reversal of this trend at very low infant mortality. For many countries, sex ratios follow this pattern but important exceptions exist. An explanation needs to be sought for selected countries with outlying sex ratios and action should be undertaken if sex discrimination is present., Funding: The National University of Singapore and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)., (Copyright © 2014 Alkema et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.)

Measuring variations and gaps in health and wellbeing across individuals, social groups and societies is a critical issue confronting social scientists in their quest to explain why gaps in health between the rich and the poor persist within and across societies. This article provides a systematic review of the measurement of inequalities and their implications on rural and remote health. A comprehensive literature review was conducted using online databases and other collections of published research on measuring health gaps between the rich and the poor in order to trace the development of this field of inquiry. Despite the enormous information on the subject area, it is not always easy to disentangle the independent effects of social class or socio-economic status (SES) on health inequalities from genetic or biological differences when analyzing racial/ethnic, gender or age gaps in mortality and morbidity. The meaning of SES or social class also varies from one culture to the other. Despite decades of work in this field, it is not clear what it is about SES or social class that is associated with inequalities in health. Is it simply a question of access to resources? And on the issue of measurement, studies from various disciplines have shown that it is important to employ a raft of measures in order to measure and present the distributions fully from various angles and value judgments. In the rural African context, tackling vertical and horizontal inequalities in health requires tackling the root causes of poverty and promoting social policies that empower individuals and communities. Hence, the review discusses recent methodological developments that hold promise for addressing the knowledge gap that remain. We hope that researchers will reflect on the dynamics in measures of inequalities discussed in this paper as they continue to assess the status of health in Africa's contemporary and largely dominated rural population.

Objective: To investigate healthiness of survival and quality of death among oldest-old Chinese., Methods: Grade of Membership (GoM) method is applied to fulfill our goals using a nationwide longitudinal survey in China., Results: GoM method generates six pure types/profiles for healthiness of survival and five profiles/types for quality of death. The authors combine these 11 profiles into 4 groups. On average, a Chinese oldest old from 1998 to 2000 had 48% probability of experiencing healthy survival, with 30% experiencing unhealthy survival, 11% having nonsuffering death, and 11% having suffering death. Similar memberships of dying with nonsuffering conditions are found across ages among the decedents. Men have a higher probability of being in healthy survival and nonsuffering death as compared to women. Marriage, high social connections, nonsmoking, and regular exercise are important contributors to healthy survival and quality of death., Discussion: It is possible to live to ages 100 and beyond without much suffering.

Introduction: Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1-4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s., Methods and Findings: Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls'. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1-4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter., Conclusions: The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Egypt and Tunisia began their fertility transition at almost identical fertility levels and at roughly the same time period, yet the difference in the pace of decline has been such that the total fertility rate (TFR) in Tunisia reached replacement level by the year 2001, whereas the TFR in Egypt remains above three live births per woman. This article draws on the secondary literature and on several nationally representative surveys from the two countries between 1978 and 2005 to provide empirical evidence of the difference in the pace of fertility decline and to analyze the determinants of the differential. Findings include (a) variation across the two countries in the consistency of fertility decline among the segments of the population leading the transition; (b) that the success of each country's family planning program was influenced by the role of political leaders and the extent of the program's integration within socioeconomic development objectives; (c) that the impact of contraception on TFR decline became an important factor in the mid-1980s; and (d) that the greatest determinant of the discrepancy in the pace of fertility decline is the disparity in age at marriage, which rose more significantly in Tunisia than in Egypt. The latter finding indicates that reaching replacement fertility in Egypt hinges primarily on further declines in marital fertility, resulting from reduction of wanted fertility and from an expansion of family planning program coverage and improved efficiency of service delivery and use.

Discussion of women, gender equality, and diabetes should be placed in the context of United Nations mandates on women's health which highlight the need for equal access to information, prevention activities, services, and care across the life cycle. Gender differences and inequalities have been identified in relation to causes and consequences of diabetes and access to services and support between women and men, and among different groups of women. Appropriate gender-sensitive policy responses, including research and data collection, need to be developed. The recent United Nations resolution on diabetes provides an opportunity to strengthen the focus on women and diabetes.

This paper discusses six major themes: that economic and social issues are closely interdependent and that the appropriate stance is to work on both together, simultaneously; that though the threats from globalisation have been exaggerated, there can be substantial costs as well as considerable benefits; that constraints on national policy are significant but are less severe than is commonly considered; that the vitality-the vigour-of national and international political processes must be increased to cope effectively with the changes which are underway; that the private sector, unions and civil society have crucial roles in the provision of services and in advocating socially responsible values, standards and policies; and that one of the most effective means of addressing the erosion of national autonomy from globalisation is for countries to cooperate in setting and implementing shared objectives and international standards and establishing more global public goods.