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Background: Decision-making regarding palliative treatment for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is complex and comprises numerous decisions. Decision-making should be guided by the premise of maintaining and/or improving patients' quality of life, by patient preference, and by the trade-off between treatment benefits and harm. Decision support systems (DSSs) for clinicians (eg, nomograms) can assist in this process. The present systematic review aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the available DSSs for incurable mCRC and to assess their clinical usefulness., Materials and Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. We extracted information on the DSS characteristics and their discriminatory ability, calibration, and user-friendliness., Results: From 5205 studies, we identified 14 DSSs for decisions regarding palliative resection of the primary tumor (n = 3), radiotherapy for metastases (n = 2), treatment type (invasive vs. symptomatic only; n = 7), and selection of chemotherapy (n = 2). The predictors varied greatly among the DSSs, and only 1 DSS incorporated a genetic marker (ie, UGT1A1). None of the DSSs included > 1 treatment option, nor did any DSS present estimates of treatment benefits and harms. Five tools had not been externally validated, two had only been validated in < 35 patients, and the rest had only been validated in populations similar to the population used for their development. Discriminatory accuracy was generally moderate to poor. Calibration measures were only reported for 2 tools., Conclusion: A limited number of DSSs are available to support palliative treatment decisions for patients with mCRC, and the evidence regarding their discriminatory ability and calibration is too limited to recommend their use. New DSSs comparing multiple treatment options and presenting both treatment benefits and harms are needed., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Traditionally, surgical resection is the preferred treatment for typical carcinoids and atypical carcinoids located in the lungs. Recently however, several studies have shown excellent long-term outcome after endobronchial treatment of carcinoid tumors located in the central airways. This study investigates clinical and radiological features as predictors of successful endobronchial treatment in patients with a bronchial carcinoid tumor., Objectives: To identify clinical and radiological features predictive of successful endobronchial treatment in patients with bronchial carcinoid., Methods: This analysis was performed in a cohort of patients with typical and atypical bronchial carcinoid referred for endobronchial treatment. Several patient characteristics, radiological features, and histological grade (typical or atypical carcinoid) were tested as predictors of successful endobronchial treatment., Results: One hundred and twenty-five patients with a diagnosis of bronchial carcinoid underwent endobronchial treatment. On multivariate analysis, a tumor diameter <15 mm (odds ratio 0.09; 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.5; p = <0.01) and purely intraluminal growth on computer tomography (CT scan) (odds ratio, 9.1; 95% confidence interval 1.8-45.8; p = <0.01) were predictive of radical endobronchial treatment. The success rate for intraluminal tumors with a diameter <20 mm was 72%., Conclusions: Purely intraluminal disease and tumor diameter on CT scan seem to be independent predictors for successful endobronchial treatment in patients with bronchial carcinoid. Based on these data, patients with purely intraluminal carcinoid tumors with a diameter <20 mm on CT scan are good candidates for endobronchial treatment, regardless of histological grade. In contrast, all patients with a tumor diameter ≥20 mm should be directly referred for surgery., (© 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Aims/hypothesis: Glycaemic markers and fasting insulin are frequently measured outcomes of intervention studies. To extrapolate accurately the impact of interventions on the risk of diabetes incidence, we investigated the size and shape of the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h post-load glucose (2hPG), HbA 1c , fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus., Methods: The study population included 1349 participants aged 50-75 years without diabetes at baseline (1989) from a population-based cohort in Hoorn, the Netherlands. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined by the WHO 2011 criteria or known diabetes at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of the glycaemic markers, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes. Restricted cubic spline logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the shape of the associations., Results: After a mean follow-up duration of 6.4 (SD 0.5) years, 152 participants developed diabetes (11.3%); the majority were screen detected by high FPG. In multivariate adjusted models, ORs (95% CI) for incident type 2 diabetes for the highest quintile in comparison with the lowest quintile were 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) for FPG, 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) for 2hPG, 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) for HbA 1c , 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) for fasting insulin and 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) for HOMA-IR. The associations of FPG and HbA 1c with incident diabetes were non-linear, rising more steeply at higher values., Conclusions/interpretation: FPG was most strongly associated with incident diabetes, followed by 2hPG, HbA 1c , HOMA-IR and fasting insulin. The strong association with FPG is probably because FPG is the most frequent marker for diabetes diagnosis. Non-linearity of associations between glycaemic markers and incident type 2 diabetes should be taken into account when estimating future risk of type 2 diabetes based on glycaemic markers.

Background: The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) for detecting hemoglobin is used widely for noninvasive colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but its sensitivity leaves room for improvement., Objective: To identify novel protein biomarkers in stool that outperform or complement hemoglobin in detecting CRC and advanced adenomas., Design: Case-control study., Setting: Colonoscopy-controlled referral population from several centers., Participants: 315 stool samples from one series of 12 patients with CRC and 10 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples) and a second series of 81 patients with CRC, 40 with advanced adenomas, and 43 with nonadvanced adenomas, as well as 129 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples); 72 FIT samples from a third independent series of 14 patients with CRC, 16 with advanced adenomas, and 18 with nonadvanced adenomas, as well as 24 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples)., Measurements: Stool samples were analyzed by mass spectrometry. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify protein combinations that differentiated CRC or advanced adenoma from control samples. Antibody-based assays for 4 selected proteins were done on FIT samples., Results: In total, 834 human proteins were identified, 29 of which were statistically significantly enriched in CRC versus control stool samples in both series. Combinations of 4 proteins reached sensitivities of 80% and 45% for detecting CRC and advanced adenomas, respectively, at 95% specificity, which was higher than that of hemoglobin alone (P < 0.001 and P = 0.003, respectively). Selected proteins could be measured in small sample volumes used in FIT-based screening programs and discriminated between CRC and control samples (P < 0.001)., Limitation: Lack of availability of antibodies prohibited validation of the top protein combinations in FIT samples., Conclusion: Mass spectrometry of stool samples identified novel candidate protein biomarkers for CRC screening. Several protein combinations outperformed hemoglobin in discriminating CRC or advanced adenoma from control samples. Proof of concept that such proteins can be detected with antibody-based assays in small sample volumes indicates the potential of these biomarkers to be applied in population screening., Primary Funding Source: Center for Translational Molecular Medicine, International Translational Cancer Research Dream Team, Stand Up to Cancer (American Association for Cancer Research and the Dutch Cancer Society), Dutch Digestive Foundation, and VU University Medical Center.

Background and Study Aims:  In an optical diagnosis strategy, diminutive polyps that are endoscopically characterized with high confidence are removed without histopathological analysis and distal hyperplastic polyps are left in situ. We evaluated the effectiveness and costs of optical diagnosis., Methods:  Using the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model, we simulated biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening in individuals aged 55 - 75 years. In this program, we compared an optical diagnosis strategy with current histopathology assessment of all diminutive polyps. Base-case assumptions included 76 % high-confidence predictions and sensitivities of 88 %, 91 %, and 88 % for endoscopically characterizing adenomas, sessile serrated polyps, and hyperplastic polyps, respectively. Outcomes were colorectal cancer burden, number of colonoscopies, life-years, and costs., Results:  Both the histopathology strategy and the optical diagnosis strategy resulted in 21 life-days gained per simulated individual compared with no screening. For optical diagnosis, €6 per individual was saved compared with the current histopathology strategy. These cost savings were related to a 31 % reduction in colonoscopies in which histopathology was needed for diminutive polyps. Projecting these results onto the Netherlands (17 million inhabitants), assuming a fully implemented FIT-based screening program, resulted in an annual undiscounted cost saving of € 1.7 - 2.2 million for optical diagnosis., Conclusion:  Implementation of optical diagnosis in a FIT-based screening program saves costs without decreasing program effectiveness when compared with current histopathology analysis of all diminutive polyps. Further work is required to evaluate how endoscopists participating in a screening program should be trained, audited, and monitored to achieve adequate competence in optical diagnosis.

Background: Uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) are common in primary care resulting in substantial costs. Since antimicrobial resistance against antibiotics for UTIs is rising, accurate diagnosis is needed in settings with low rates of multidrug-resistant bacteria., Objective: To compare the cost-effectiveness of different strategies to diagnose UTIs in women who contacted their general practitioner (GP) with painful and/or frequent micturition between 2006 and 2008 in and around Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Methods: This is a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using data from 196 women who underwent four tests: history, urine stick, sediment, dipslide, and the gold standard, a urine culture. Decision trees were constructed reflecting 15 diagnostic strategies comprising different parallel and sequential combinations of the four tests. Using the decision trees, for each strategy the costs and the proportion of women with a correct positive or negative diagnosis were estimated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to estimate uncertainty surrounding costs and effects. Uncertainty was presented using cost-effectiveness planes and acceptability curves., Results: Most sequential testing strategies resulted in higher proportions of correctly classified women and lower costs than parallel testing strategies. For different willingness to pay thresholds, the most cost-effective strategies were: 1) performing a dipstick after a positive history for thresholds below €10 per additional correctly classified patient, 2) performing both a history and dipstick for thresholds between €10 and €17 per additional correctly classified patient, 3) performing a dipstick if history was negative, followed by a sediment if the dipstick was negative for thresholds between €17 and €118 per additional correctly classified patient, 4) performing a dipstick if history was negative, followed by a dipslide if the dipstick was negative for thresholds above €118 per additional correctly classified patient., Conclusion: Depending on decision makers' willingness to pay for one additional correctly classified woman, the strategy consisting of performing a history and dipstick simultaneously (ceiling ratios between €10 and €17) or performing a sediment if history and subsequent dipstick are negative (ceiling ratios between €17 and €118) are the most cost-effective strategies to diagnose a UTI.

Objective: To evaluate if COmbinatie therapie Bij Reumatoïde Artritis (COBRA)-light therapy is cost-effective in treating patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared with COBRA therapy., Methods: This economic evaluation was performed next to the open-label, randomised non-inferiority COBRA-light trial in 164 patients with early RA. Non-responders to COBRA or COBRA-light received etanercept (50 mg/week) for 3-6 months. The societal perspective analysis took medical direct, non-medical direct and indirect costs into account. Costs were measured with patient cost diaries for the follow-up period of 52 weeks. Bootstrapping techniques estimated uncertainty around the cost-effectiveness ratios, presented in cost-effectiveness planes., Results: 164 patients were randomised to either COBRA or COBRA-light strategy. At week 52, COBRA-light proved to be non-inferior to COBRA therapy on all clinical outcome measures. The results of the base-case cost-utility analysis (intention-to-treat analyses) revealed that COBRA-light strategy is more expensive (k€9.3 (SD 0.9) compared with COBRA (k€7.2 (SD 0.8)), but the difference in costs were not significant (k€2.0; 95% CI -0.3 to 4.4). Also, both strategies produced similar quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The sensitivity analyses showed robustness of these results. In a per-protocol sensitivity analysis, in which costs of etanercept were assumed to be provided as prescribed according to protocol, both arms had much higher costs: COBRA-light: k€11.5 (8.3) compared with k€8.5 (6.8) for COBRA, and the difference in costs was significant (k€2.9; 0.6 to 5.3)., Conclusions: In the base-case cost-utility analysis, the two strategies produced similar QALYs for similar costs. But it is anticipated that if protocol had been followed correctly, the COBRA-light strategy would have been more costly due to additional etanercept costs, for a limited health gain. Given the limited added benefit and high costs of starting etanercept in the presence of low disease activity in our trial, such a strategy needs better justification than is available now., Trial Registration Number: 55552928, Results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: WFL has received speaker’s fee from Merck, AbbVie, Roche and Pfizer. MSN has received research grants from AbbVie, BMS, MSD, Pfizer, UCB and Roche. He has also acted as a consultant for AbbVie, BMS, Pfizer and Roche. Furthermore, he has participated in speakers bureau for AbbVie, BMS, Pfizer and Roche. All other authors have nothing to declare.

Background: Population-based screening to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) death is effective, but the effectiveness of postpolypectomy surveillance is unclear., Objective: To evaluate the additional benefit in terms of cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy surveillance in a screening setting., Design: Microsimulation using the ASCCA (Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer) model., Data Sources: Dutch CRC screening program and published literature., Target Population: Asymptomatic persons aged 55 to 75 years without a prior CRC diagnosis., Time Horizon: Lifetime., Perspective: Health care payer., Intervention: Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening with colonoscopy surveillance performed according to the Dutch guideline was simulated. The comparator was no screening or surveillance. FIT screening without colonoscopy surveillance and the effect of extending surveillance intervals were also evaluated., Outcome Measures: CRC burden, colonoscopy demand, life-years, and costs., Results of Base-Case Analysis: FIT screening without surveillance reduced CRC mortality by 50.4% compared with no screening or surveillance. Adding surveillance to FIT screening reduced mortality by an additional 1.7% to 52.1% but increased lifetime colonoscopy demand by 62% (from 335 to 543 colonoscopies per 1000 persons) at an additional cost of €68 000, for an increase of 0.9 life-year. Extending the surveillance intervals to 5 years reduced CRC mortality by 51.8% and increased colonoscopy demand by 42.7% compared with FIT screening without surveillance. In an incremental analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for screening plus surveillance exceeded the Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of €36 602 per life-year gained., Results of Sensitivity Analysis: When using a parameter set representing low colorectal lesion prevalence or when colonoscopy costs were halved or colorectal lesion incidence was doubled, screening plus surveillance became cost-effective compared with screening without surveillance., Limitation: Limited data on FIT performance and background CRC risk in the surveillance population., Conclusion: Adding surveillance to FIT screening is not cost-effective based on the Dutch ICER threshold and substantially increases colonoscopy demand. Extending surveillance intervals to 5 years would decrease colonoscopy demand without substantial loss of effectiveness., Primary Funding Source: Alpe d'HuZes, Dutch Cancer Society, and Stand Up To Cancer.

Introduction: Patient decision aids (PDAs) have been developed to help patients make an informed choice for a treatment option. Despite proven benefits, structural implementation falls short of expectations. The present study aims to assess the effectiveness and cost-utility of the PDA among newly diagnosed patients with localised prostate cancer and their partners, alongside implementation of the PDA in routine care., Methods/analysis: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial will be conducted. The PDA will be sequentially implemented in 18 hospitals in the Netherlands, over a period of 24 months. Every 3 or 6 months, a new cluster of hospitals will switch from usual care to care including a PDA.The primary outcome measure is decisional conflict experienced by the patient. Secondary outcomes comprise the patient's quality of life, treatment preferences, role in the decision making, expectations of treatment, knowledge, need for supportive care and decision regret. Furthermore, societal cost-utility will be valued. Other outcome measures considered are the partner's treatment preferences, experienced participation to decision making, quality of life, communication between patient, partner and health care professional, and the effect of prostate cancer on the relationship, social contacts and their role as caregiver. Patients and partners receiving the PDA will also be asked about their satisfaction with the PDA.Baseline assessment takes place after the treatment choice and before the start of a treatment, with follow-up assessments at 3, 6 and 12 months following the end of treatment or the day after deciding on active surveillance. Outcome measures on implementation include the implementation rate (defined as the proportion of all eligible patients who will receive a PDA) and a questionnaire for health care professionals on determinants of implementing an innovation., Ethics and Dissemination: This study will be conducted in accordance with local laws and regulations of the Medical Ethics Committee of VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The results from this stepped-wedge trial will be presented at scientific meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals., Trial Registration: Nederlands Trial Register NTR TC5177, registration date: May 28 th 2015.Pre-results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objective: Temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a very common and costly pain problem concerning the temporomandibular joint. A previous study has shown that for the treatment of acute myogenic TMD, TheraBite® (TB) offers a faster and greater effect than usual care consisting of physical therapy (PT). This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of TB compared to PT., Methods: Differences in costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between TB and PT are analyzed using a decision model., Results: The point estimate for the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -28,068 EUR (-30,191 USD) per QALY (dominant) for TB versus PT. At the willingness-to-pay ratio of 20,000 EUR (21,513 USD) per QALY, TB has a 97% probability of being cost-effective compared to PT., Conclusion: TB is expected to be cost-effective compared to PT for the treatment of acute myogenic TMD, offering faster recovery of quality of life for patients, at a lower cost to society.

Background: An increasing number of model-based studies that evaluate the cost effectiveness of treatments for depression are being published. These studies have different characteristics and use different simulation methods., Objective: We aimed to systematically review model-based studies evaluating the cost effectiveness of treatments for depression and examine which modelling technique is most appropriate for simulating the natural course of depression., Methods: The literature search was conducted in the databases PubMed, EMBASE and PsycInfo between 1 January 2002 and 1 October 2016. Studies were eligible if they used a health economic model with quality-adjusted life-years or disability-adjusted life-years as an outcome measure. Data related to various methodological characteristics were extracted from the included studies. The available modelling techniques were evaluated based on 11 predefined criteria., Results: This methodological review included 41 model-based studies, of which 21 used decision trees (DTs), 15 used cohort-based state-transition Markov models (CMMs), two used individual-based state-transition models (ISMs), and three used discrete-event simulation (DES) models. Just over half of the studies (54%) evaluated antidepressants compared with a control condition. The data sources, time horizons, cycle lengths, perspectives adopted and number of health states/events all varied widely between the included studies. DTs scored positively in four of the 11 criteria, CMMs in five, ISMs in six, and DES models in seven., Conclusion: There were substantial methodological differences between the studies. Since the individual history of each patient is important for the prognosis of depression, DES and ISM simulation methods may be more appropriate than the others for a pragmatic representation of the course of depression. However, direct comparisons between the available modelling techniques are necessary to yield firm conclusions.

Background: The aims of this study are to analyze differences in survival between academic and non-academic hospitals and to provide insight into treatment patterns for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Results show the state of NSCLC survival and care in the Netherlands., Methods: The Netherlands Cancer Registry provided data on NSCLC survival for all Dutch hospitals. We used the Kaplan-Meier estimate to calculate median survival time by hospital type and a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the relative risk of mortality (expressed as hazard ratios) for patients diagnosed in academic versus non-academic hospitals, with adjustment for age, gender, and tumor histology, and stratifying for disease stage. Data on treatment patterns in Dutch hospitals was obtained from 4 hospitals (2 academic, 2 non-academic). A random sample of patients diagnosed with NSCLC from January 2009 until January 2011 was identified through hospital databases. Data was obtained on patient characteristics, tumor characteristics, and treatments., Results: The Cox proportional hazards model shows a significantly decreased hazard ratio of mortality for patients diagnosed in academic hospitals, as opposed to patients diagnosed in non-academic hospitals. This is specifically true for primary radiotherapy patients and patients who receive systemic treatment for non-metastasized NSCLC., Conclusion: Patients diagnosed in academic hospitals have better median overall survival than patients diagnosed in non-academic hospitals, especially for patients treated with radiotherapy, systemic treatment, or combinations. This difference may be caused by residual confounding since the estimates were not adjusted for performance status. A wide variety of surgical, radiotherapeutic, and systemic treatments is prescribed., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate long-term benefits, costs, and harms of the NBCSP (2 yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood testing screening at age 50-74 years) and evaluate the incremental effect of improved screening participation under different scenarios., Methods: In this modelling study, a microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, which simulates the development of colorectal cancer via both the conventional adenoma-carcinoma and serrated pathways was used to simulate the NBCSP in 2006-40, taking into account the gradual rollout of NBCSP in 2006-20. The base-case scenario assumed 40% screening participation (currently observed behaviour) and two alternative scenarios assuming 50% and 60% participation by 2020 were modelled. Aggregate year-by-year screening, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance-related costs, resource utilisation (number of screening tests and colonoscopies), and health outcomes (incident colorectal cancer cases and colorectal cancer deaths) were estimated, as was the cost-effectiveness of the NBCSP., Findings: With current levels of participation (40%), the NBCSP is expected to prevent 92 200 cancer cases and 59 000 deaths over the period 2015-40; an additional 24 300 and 37 300 cases and 16 800 and 24 800 deaths would be prevented if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. In 2020, an estimated 101 000 programme-related colonoscopies will be done, associated with about 270 adverse events; an additional 32 500 and 49 800 colonoscopies and 88 and 134 adverse events would occur if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. The overall number needed to screen (NNS) is 647-788 per death prevented, with 52-59 colonoscopies per death prevented. The programme is cost-effective due to the cancer treatment costs averted (cost-effectiveness ratio compared with no screening at current participation, AUS$3014 [95% uncertainty interval 1807-5583] per life-year saved) in the cost-effectiveness analysis. In the budget impact analysis, reduced annual expenditure on colorectal cancer control is expected by 2030, with expenditure reduced by a cumulative AUS$1·7 billion, AUS$2·0 billion, and AUS$2·1 billion (2015 prices) between 2030 and 2040, at participation rates of 40%, 50%, and 60%, respectively., Interpretation: The NBCSP has potential to save 83 800 lives over the period 2015-40 if coverage rates can be increased to 60%. By contrast, the associated harms, although an important consideration, are at a smaller magnitude at the population level. The programme is highly cost-effective and within a decade of full roll-out, there will be reduced annual health systems expenditure on colorectal cancer control due to the impact of screening., Funding: Australia Postgraduate Award PhD Scholarship, Translational Cancer Research Network Top-up scholarship (supported by Cancer Institute NSW) and Cancer Council NSW., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Diversity in colorectal cancer biology is associated with variable responses to standard chemotherapy. We aimed to identify and validate DNA hypermethylated genes as predictive biomarkers for irinotecan treatment of metastatic CRC patients. Candidate genes were selected from 389 genes involved in DNA Damage Repair by correlation analyses between gene methylation status and drug response in 32 cell lines. A large series of samples (n=818) from two phase III clinical trials was used to evaluate these candidate genes by correlating methylation status to progression-free survival after treatment with first-line single-agent fluorouracil (Capecitabine or 5-fluorouracil) or combination chemotherapy (Capecitabine or 5-fluorouracil plus irinotecan (CAPIRI/FOLFIRI)). In the discovery (n=185) and initial validation set (n=166), patients with methylated Decoy Receptor 1 ( DCR1) did not benefit from CAPIRI over Capecitabine treatment (discovery set: HR=1.2 (95%CI 0.7-1.9, p =0.6), validation set: HR=0.9 (95%CI 0.6-1.4, p =0.5)), whereas patients with unmethylated DCR1 did (discovery set: HR=0.4 (95%CI 0.3-0.6, p =0.00001), validation set: HR=0.5 (95%CI 0.3-0.7, p =0.0008)). These results could not be replicated in the external data set (n=467), where a similar effect size was found in patients with methylated and unmethylated DCR1 for FOLFIRI over 5FU treatment (methylated DCR1 : HR=0.7 (95%CI 0.5-0.9, p =0.01), unmethylated DCR1 : HR=0.8 (95%CI 0.6-1.2, p =0.4)). In conclusion, DCR1 promoter hypermethylation status is a potential predictive biomarker for response to treatment with irinotecan, when combined with capecitabine. This finding could not be replicated in an external validation set, in which irinotecan was combined with 5FU. These results underline the challenge and importance of extensive clinical evaluation of candidate biomarkers in multiple trials., Competing Interests: CONFLICTS OF INTEREST LJWB, GT, BC and GAM are listed as inventors on a patent application titled “Methylation of dcr1 as predictive marker for drug response” (applicant MdxHealth SA, application number PCT/IB2013/002642, publication number WO2014064526 A3), but have no related financial interest. WvC is listed as an inventor on a patent application titled “Methylation of dcr1 as predictive marker for drug response” (applicant MDxHealth SA, application number PCT/IB2013/002642, publication number WO2014064526 A3), and is an employee of and holds stock options in MDxHealth. All other authors have nothing to declare

Background: Cancer survivors have to deal with a wide range of physical symptoms, psychological, social and existential concerns, and lifestyle issues related to cancer and its treatment. Therefore, it is essential that they have access to optimal supportive care services. The eHealth self-management application Oncokompas was developed to support cancer survivors with where they need to turn to for advice and guidance, as well as to increase their knowledge on the availability of optimal support. A randomised controlled trial will be conducted to assess the efficacy, cost-utility and reach of Oncokompas as an eHealth self-management application compared with care as usual among cancer survivors., Methods/design: Adult cancer survivors diagnosed with breast, colorectal or head and neck cancer or lymphoma who are at 3 months to 5 years since curative treatment will be included. In total, 544 cancer survivors will be randomly assigned to the intervention group or a wait-list control group. The primary outcome measure is patient activation. Secondary outcome measures include self-efficacy, personal control, perceived patient-physician interaction, need for supportive care, mental adjustment to cancer and health-related quality of life. Furthermore, cost-utility outcomes will be assessed. Reach is defined as the percentage of cancer survivors who get access to Oncokompas within the context of this trial. Questionnaires will be administered at baseline, post-intervention and at 3- and 6-month follow-up., Discussion: In this study, we will evaluate the efficacy and cost-utility of Oncokompas among cancer survivors, as well as the reach of Oncokompas. These are essential first steps in the translation of research into practice and contribute to sustainable adoption, implementation and maintenance of an evidence-based Oncokompas., Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Register identifier: NTR5774 . Registered on 8 March 2016.

Background: Considerable variation exists in diagnostic tests used for local response evaluation after chemoradiation in patients with advanced oropharyngeal cancer. The yield of invasive examination under general anesthesia (EUA) with biopsies in all patients is low and it may induce substantial morbidity. We explored four response evaluation strategies to detect local residual disease in terms of diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness., Methods: We built a decision-analytic model using trial data of forty-six patients and scientific literature. We estimated for four strategies the proportion of correct diagnoses, costs concerning diagnostic instruments and the proportion of unnecessary EUA indications. Besides a reference strategy, i.e. EUA for all patients, we considered three imaging strategies consisting of 18 FDG-PET-CT, diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI), or both 18 FDG-PET-CT and DW-MRI followed by EUA after a positive test. The impact of uncertainty was assessed in sensitivity analyses., Results: The EUA strategy led to 96% correct diagnoses. Expected costs were €468 per patient whereas 89% of EUA indications were unnecessary. The DW-MRI strategy was the least costly strategy, but also led to the lowest proportion of correct diagnoses, i.e. 93%. The PET-CT strategy and combined imaging strategy were dominated by the EUA strategy due to respectively a smaller or equal proportion of correct diagnoses, at higher costs. However, the combination of PET-CT and DW-MRI had the highest sensitivity. All imaging strategies considerably reduced (unnecessary) EUA indications and its associated burden compared to the EUA strategy., Conclusions: Because the combined PET-CT and DW-MRI strategy costs only an additional €927 per patient, it is preferred over immediate EUA since it reaches the same diagnostic accuracy in detecting local residual disease while leading to substantially less unnecessary EUA indications. However, if healthcare resources are limited, DW-MRI is the strategy of choice because of lower costs while still providing a large reduction in unnecessary EUA indications.

Background: Studies in small groups of patients indicated that splenic volume (SV) may be decreased in patients with celiac disease (CD), refractory CD (RCD) type II and enteropathy-associated T-cell lymphoma (EATL)., Objective: The objective of this article is to evaluate SV in a large cohort of uncomplicated CD, RCD II and EATL patients and healthy controls., Methods: The retrospective cohort consisted of 77 uncomplicated CD (of whom 39 in remission), 29 RCD II, 24 EATL and 12 patients with both RCD II and EATL. The control group included 149 healthy living kidney donors. SV was determined on computed tomography., Results: The median SV in the uncomplicated CD group was significantly larger than in controls (202 cm 3 (interquartile range (IQR): 154-275) versus 183 cm 3 (IQR: 140-232), p  = 0.02). After correction for body surface area, age and gender, the ratio of SV in uncomplicated CD versus controls was 1.28 (95% confidence interval: 1.20-1.36; p  < 0.001). The median SV in RCD II patients (118 cm 3 (IQR 83-181)) was smaller than the median SV in the control group ( p  < 0.001)., Conclusion: This study demonstrates large inter-individual variation in SV. SV is enlarged in uncomplicated CD. The small SV in RCD II may be of clinical relevance considering the immune-compromised status of these patients.

Background: As in many other European countries, a nationwide screening program for colorectal cancer (CRC) has recently been introduced in the Netherlands. As a side effect, such a screening program will inherently yield an increase in the demand for surveillance after removal of polyps/adenomas or CRC. Although these patients are at increased risk of metachronous colorectal neoplasia, solid evidence on CRC-related mortality reduction as a result of colonoscopy-based surveillance programs is lacking. Furthermore, colonoscopy-based surveillance leads to high patient burden, high logistic demands and high costs. Therefore, new surveillance strategies are needed. The aim of the present study, named Molecular stool testing for Colorectal CAncer Surveillance (MOCCAS), is to determine the performance characteristics of two established non-invasive tests, i.e., the multitarget stool DNA test Cologuard® and the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) in the detection of CRC and advanced adenomas as an alternative for colonoscopy surveillance., Methods: In this observational cross-sectional cohort study, subjects aged 50 to 75 years will be approached to collect (whole-) stool samples for molecular testing and a FIT prior to their scheduled surveillance colonoscopy. The results of the tests will allow calculation of test sensitivities and specificities in the context of surveillance. This will provide the required input for the Dutch ASCCA model (Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer) to simulate surveillance strategies differing in frequency and duration. The model will allow predictions of lifetime health effects and costs. Multiple centres in the Netherlands will participate in the study that aims to include 4,000 individuals., Discussion: The outcome of this study will inform on the (cost-) effectiveness of stool based molecular testing as an alternative for colonoscopy in the rapidly expanding surveillance population., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ ): NCT02715141 . Retrospectively registered 17 February 2016.

Purpose A stepped care (SC) program in which an effective yet least resource-intensive treatment is delivered to patients first and followed, when necessary, by more resource-intensive treatments was found to be effective in improving distress levels of patients with head and neck cancer or lung cancer. Information on the value of this program for its cost is now called for. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the cost-utility of the SC program compared with care-as-usual (CAU) in patients with head and neck cancer or lung cancer who have psychological distress. Patients and Methods In total, 156 patients were randomly assigned to SC or CAU. Intervention costs, direct medical costs, direct nonmedical costs, productivity losses, and health-related quality-of-life data during the intervention or control period and 12 months of follow-up were calculated by using Trimbos and Institute of Medical Technology Assessment Cost Questionnaire for Psychiatry, Productivity and Disease Questionnaire, and EuroQol-5 Dimension measures and data from the hospital information system. The SC program's value for the cost was investigated by comparing mean cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results After imputation of missing data, mean cumulative costs were -€3,950 (95% CI, -€8,158 to -€190) lower, and mean number of QALYs was 0.116 (95% CI, 0.005 to 0.227) higher in the intervention group compared with the control group. The intervention group had a probability of 96% that cumulative QALYs were higher and cumulative costs were lower than in the control group. Four additional analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of this finding, and they found that the intervention group had a probability of 84% to 98% that cumulative QALYs were higher and a probability of 91% to 99% that costs were lower than in the control group. Conclusion SC is highly likely to be cost-effective; the number of QALYs was higher and cumulative costs were lower for SC compared with CAU.

Introduction: Optimizing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy through advanced imaging and accelerated radiation schemes shows promising results in locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study compared the cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography-computed tomography based isotoxic accelerated sequential chemo-radiation (SRT2) and concurrent chemo-radiation with daily low-dose cisplatin (CRT2) with standard sequential (SRT1) and concurrent chemo-radiation (CRT1)., Methods: We used an externally validated mathematical model to simulate the four treatment strategies. The model was built using data from 200 NSCLC patients treated with curative sequential chemo-radiation. For concurrent strategies, data from a meta-analysis and a single study were included in the model. Costs, utilities, and resource use estimates were obtained from literature. Primary outcomes were the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of each strategy. Scenario analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainty., Results: Total undiscounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for SRT1, CRT1, SRT2, and CRT2 were EUR 17,288, EUR 18,756, EUR 19,072, EUR 17,360 and QALYs 1.10, 1.15, 1.40, and 1.40, respectively. Compared with SRT1, the ICURs were EUR 38,024/QALY for CRT1, EUR 6,249/QALY for SRT2, and EUR 346/QALY for CRT2. CRT2 was highly cost-effective compared with SRT1. Moreover, CRT2 was more effective and less costly than CRT1 and SRT2. Therefore, these strategies were dominated by CRT2., Conclusion: Optimized sequential and concurrent chemo-radiation strategies are more effective and cost-effective than the current conventional sequential and concurrent strategies. Concurrent chemo-radiation with a daily low dose cisplatin regimen is the most cost-effective treatment option for locally advanced inoperable NSCLC patients.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. Accurately identifying stage II CRC patients at risk for recurrence is an unmet clinical need. KCNQ1 was previously identified as a tumour suppressor gene and loss of expression was associated with poor survival in patients with CRC liver metastases. In this study the prognostic value of KCNQ1 in stage II and stage III colon cancer patients was examined., Methods: KCNQ1 mRNA expression was assessed in 90 stage II colon cancer patients (AMC-AJCCII-90) using microarray gene expression data. Subsequently, KCNQ1 protein expression was evaluated in an independent cohort of 386 stage II and stage III colon cancer patients by immunohistochemistry of tissue microarrays., Results: Low KCNQ1 mRNA expression in stage II microsatellite stable (MSS) colon cancers was associated with poor disease-free survival (DFS) (P=0.025). Loss of KCNQ1 protein expression from epithelial cells was strongly associated with poor DFS in stage II MSS (P<0.0001), stage III MSS (P=0.0001) and stage III microsatellite instable colon cancers (P=0.041). KCNQ1 seemed an independent prognostic value in addition to other high-risk parameters like angio-invasion, nodal stage and microsatellite instability-status., Conclusions: We conclude that KCNQ1 is a promising biomarker for prediction of disease recurrence and may aid stratification of patients with stage II MSS colon cancer for adjuvant chemotherapy.

Information from individual classification systems or clinical prediction rules that aim to facilitate stratified care in low back pain is important but often not comprehensive enough to be used to support clinical decision-making. The development and implementation of a clinically useful decision support tool (DST) that considering all key features is a challenging enterprise, requiring a multidisciplinary approach. Key features are inclusion of all relevant treatment options, patient characteristics, and benefits and harms and presentation as an accessible and easy to use toolkit. To be of clinical value, a DST should (1) be based on large numbers of high-quality data, allowing robust estimation of benefits and harms; (2) be presented using visually attractive and easy-to-use software; (3) be externally validated with a clinical beneficial impact established; and (4) include a procedure for regular updating and monitoring. As an illustration, we describe the development; presentation; and plans for further validation, implementation, and updating of the Nijmegen Decision Tool for Chronic Low Back Pain (NDT-CLBP)., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has reached the molecular diagnostic laboratories. Although the NGS technology aims to improve the effectiveness of therapies by selecting the most promising therapy, concerns are that NGS testing is expensive and that the 'benefits' are not yet in relation to these costs. In this study, we give an estimation of the costs and an institutional and national budget impact of various types of NGS tests in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and melanoma patients within The Netherlands. First, an activity-based costing (ABC) analysis has been conducted on the costs of two examples of NGS panels (small- and medium-targeted gene panel (TGP)) based on data of The Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI). Second, we performed a budget impact analysis (BIA) to estimate the current (2015) and future (2020) budget impact of NGS on molecular diagnostics for NSCLC and melanoma patients in The Netherlands. Literature, expert opinions, and a data set of patients within the NKI ( n = 172) have been included in the BIA. Based on our analysis, we expect that the NGS test cost concerns will be limited. In the current situation, NGS can indeed result in higher diagnostic test costs, which is mainly related to required additional tests besides the small TGP. However, in the future, we expect that the use of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) will increase, for which it is expected that additional tests can be (partly) avoided. Although the current clinical benefits are expected to be limited, the research potentials of NGS are already an important advantage.

Background: Repeated participation is important in faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, a large number of screening invitations over time may lead to screening fatigue and consequently, decreased participation rates. We evaluated the impact of screening fatigue on overall screening programme effectiveness., Methods: Using the ASCCA model, we simulated the Dutch CRC screening programme consisting of biennial FIT screening in individuals aged 55-75. We studied the resilience of the programme against heterogeneity in screening attendance and decrease in participation rate due to screening fatigue. Outcomes were reductions in CRC incidence and mortality compared to no screening., Results: Assuming a homogenous 63 % participation, i.e., each round each individual was equally likely to attend screening, 30 years of screening reduced CRC incidence and mortality by 39 and 53 %, respectively, compared to no screening. When assuming clustered participation, i.e., three subgroups of individuals with a high (95 %), moderate (65 %) and low (5 %) participation rate, screening was less effective; reductions were 33 % for CRC incidence and 43 % for CRC mortality. Screening fatigue considerably reduced screening effectiveness; if individuals refrained from screening after three negative screens, model-predicted incidence reductions decreased to 25 and 18 % under homogenous and clustered participation, respectively. Figures were 34 and 25 % for mortality reduction., Conclusions: Screening will substantially decrease CRC incidence and mortality. However, screening effectiveness can be seriously compromised if screening fatigue occurs. This warrants careful monitoring of individual screening behaviour and consideration of targeted invitation systems in individuals who have (repeatedly) missed screening rounds.

Background: Total laryngectomy with or without adjuvant (chemo)radiation often induces speech, swallowing and neck and shoulder problems. Speech, swallowing and shoulder exercises may prevent or diminish these problems. The aim of the present paper is to describe the study, which is designed to investigate the effectiveness and cost-utility of a guided self-help exercise program built into the application "In Tune without Cords" among patients treated with total laryngectomy., Methods/design: Patients, up to 5 years earlier treated with total laryngectomy with or without (chemo)radiation will be recruited for participation in this study. Patients willing to participate will be randomized to the intervention or control group (1:1). Patients in the intervention group will be provided access to a guided self-help exercise program and a self-care education program built into the application "In Tune without Cords". Patients in the control group will only be provided access to the self-care education program. The primary outcome is the difference in swallowing quality (SWAL-QOL) between the intervention and control group. Secondary outcome measures address speech problems (SHI), shoulder disability (SDQ), quality of life (EORTC QLQ-C30, QLQ-H&N35 and EQ-5D), direct and indirect costs (adjusted iMCQ and iPCQ measures) and self-management (PAM). Patients will be asked to complete these outcome measures at baseline, immediately after the intervention or control period (i.e. at 3 months follow-up) and at 6 months follow-up., Discussion: This randomized controlled trial will provide knowledge on the effectiveness of a guided self-help exercise program for patients treated with total laryngectomy. In addition, information on the value for money of such an exercise program will be provided. If this guided self-help program is (cost)effective for patients treated with total laryngectomy, the next step will be to implement this exercise program in current clinical practice., Trial Registration: NTR5255 Protocol version 4 date September 2015.

Objective: Imaging may be promising for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, since it has test characteristics comparable with colonoscopy but is less invasive. We aimed to assess the potential of CT colonography (CTC) and MR colonography (MRC) in terms of (cost-effectiveness) using the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model., Methods: We compared several CTC and MRC strategies with 5- or 10-yearly screening intervals with no screening, 10-yearly colonoscopy screening and biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening. We assumed trial-based participation rates in the base-case analyses and varied the rates in sensitivity analyses. Incremental lifetime costs and health effects were estimated from a healthcare perspective., Results: The health gain of CTC and MRC was similar and ranged from 0.031 to 0.048 life-year gained compared with no screening, for 2-5 screening rounds. Lifetime costs per person for MRC strategies were €60-110 higher than those for CTC strategies with an equal number of screening rounds. All imaging-based strategies were cost-effective compared with no screening. FIT screening was the dominant screening strategy, leading to most LYG and highest cost-savings. Compared with three rounds of colonoscopy screening, CTC with five rounds was found to be cost-effective in an incremental analysis of imaging strategies. Assumptions on screening participation have a major influence on the ordering of strategies in terms of costs and effects., Conclusion: CTC and MRC have potential for CRC screening, compared with no screening and compared with three rounds of 10-yearly colonoscopy screening. When taking FIT screening as the reference, imaging is not cost-effective. Participation is an important driver of effectiveness and cost estimates., Advances in Knowledge: This is the first study to assess the cost-effectiveness of MRC screening for CRC.

Recently, new but expensive treatments have become available for metastatic melanoma. These improve survival, but in view of the limited funds available, cost-effectiveness needs to be evaluated. Most cancer cost-effectiveness models are based on the observed clinical events such as recurrence- free and overall survival. Times at which events are recorded depend not only on the effectiveness of treatment but also on the timing of examinations and the types of tests performed. Our objective was to construct a microsimulation model framework that describes the melanoma disease process using a description of underlying tumor growth as well as its interaction with diagnostics, treatments, and surveillance. The framework should allow for exploration of the impact of simultaneously altering curative treatment approaches in different phases of the disease as well as altering diagnostics. The developed framework consists of two components, namely, the disease model and the clinical management module. The disease model consists of a tumor level, describing growth and metastasis of the tumor, and a patient level, describing clinically observed states, such as recurrence and death. The clinical management module consists of the care patients receive. This module interacts with the disease process, influencing the rate of transition between tumor growth states at the tumor level and the rate of detecting a recurrence at the patient level. We describe the framework as the required input and the model output. Furthermore, we illustrate model calibration using registry data and data from the literature.

Several psychosocial care interventions have been found effective in improving psychosocial outcomes in cancer patients. At present, there is increasingly being asked for information on the value for money of this type of intervention. This review therefore evaluates current evidence from studies investigating cost-effectiveness or cost-utility of psychosocial care in cancer patients. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed and Web of Science yielding 539 unique records, of which 11 studies were included in the study. Studies were mainly performed in breast cancer populations or mixed cancer populations. Studied interventions included collaborative care (four studies), group interventions (four studies), individual psychological support (two studies), and individual psycho-education (one study). Seven studies assessed the cost-utility of psychosocial care (based on quality-adjusted-life-years) while three studies investigated its cost-effectiveness (based on profile of mood states [mood], Revised Impact of Events Scale [distress], 12-Item Health Survey [mental health], or Fear of Progression Questionnaire [fear of cancer progression]). One study did both. Costs included were intervention costs (three studies), intervention and direct medical costs (five studies), or intervention, direct medical, and direct nonmedical costs (three studies). In general, results indicated that psychosocial care is likely to be cost-effective at different, potentially acceptable, willingness-to-pay thresholds. Further research should be performed to provide more clear information as to which psychosocial care interventions are most cost-effective and for whom. In addition, more research should be performed encompassing potential important cost drivers from a societal perspective, such as productivity losses or informal care costs, in the analyses., Competing Interests: There are no conflicts of interest.

Purpose: To determine the prognostic and predictive value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) in colon cancer in a cohort of patients who previously took part in a trial on adjuvant active specific immunotherapy (ASI)., Experimental Design: We determined the number and location of CD3 and CD8 positive T cells in archival tumor samples of 106 colon cancers. We correlated stromal and epithelial TIL numbers with tumor stage and treatment and determined the effects on disease-specific survival (DSS) and recurrence-free interval (RFI)., Results: On the basis of the data presented, we concluded that (i) high numbers of stromal CD3 T cells have positive prognostic value measured as DSS for patients with stage II microsatellite-stable tumors and (ii) high numbers of epithelial CD8-positive T cells have positive prognostic value measured as RFI for the group of patients with stage II microsatellite-stable tumors as well as for the whole group (so stage II plus stage III together). Furthermore, we concluded that high numbers of pre-existing stromal CD3-positive T cells are of positive predictive value in adjuvant ASI treatment measured as DSS as well as RFI., Conclusions: ASI therapy may contribute to an improved DSS and RFI in patients with microsatellite-stable colon tumors harboring high numbers of pre-existing stromal CD3(+) TIL. Validation in future clinical trials is awaited., (©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Background: Prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM) is estimated based on clinicopathological models. Stratifying patients based on tumor biology may have additional value., Methods: Tissue micro-arrays (TMAs), containing resected CRCLM and corresponding primary tumors from a multi-institutional cohort of 507 patients, were immunohistochemically stained for 18 candidate biomarkers. Cross-validated hazard rate ratios (HRRs) for overall survival (OS) and the proportion of HRRs with opposite effect (P(HRR < 1) or P(HRR > 1)) were calculated. A classifier was constructed by classification and regression tree (CART) analysis and its prognostic value determined by permutation analysis. Correlations between protein expression in primary tumor-CRCLM pairs were calculated., Results: Based on their putative prognostic value, EGFR (P(HRR < 1) = .02), AURKA (P(HRR < 1) = .02), VEGFA (P(HRR < 1) = .02), PTGS2 (P(HRR < 1) = .01), SLC2A1 (P(HRR > 1) < 01), HIF1α (P(HRR > 1) = .06), KCNQ1 (P(HRR > 1) = .09), CEA (P (HRR > 1) = .05) and MMP9 (P(HRR < 1) = .07) were included in the CART analysis (n = 201). The resulting classifier was based on AURKA, PTGS2 and MMP9 expression and was associated with OS (HRR 2.79, p < .001), also after multivariate analysis (HRR 3.57, p < .001). The prognostic value of the biomarker-based classifier was superior to the clinicopathological model (p = .001). Prognostic value was highest for colon cancer patients (HRR 5.71, p < .001) and patients not treated with systemic therapy (HRR 3.48, p < .01). Classification based on protein expression in primary tumors could be based on AURKA expression only (HRR 2.59, p = .04)., Conclusion: A classifier was generated for patients with CRCLM with improved prognostic value compared to the standard clinicopathological prognostic parameters, which may aid selection of patients who may benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy.

Objective: To investigate the individual and combined prognostic value of HIF1α, SLC2A1, and vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA) in a multi-institutional cohort of patients with resected colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM)., Background: In the majority of patients with CRCLM, resection seems not to be curative, despite its curative intent. Overexpression of hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF1α), glucose transporter 1 (SLC2A1; also known as GLUT1), and VEGFA has been associated with tumor progression and poor prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC)., Methods: Tissue microarrays were generated using CRCLM and patient-matched primary CRC from patients who underwent CRCLM resection between 1990 and 2010. Prognostic value of HIF1α, SLC2A1, and VEGFA was determined by immunohistochemistry. A 500-fold cross-validated hazard rate ratio (HRRav) for overall survival was calculated., Results: HIF1α, SLC2A1, and VEGFA expression could be evaluated in 328, 350, and 335 patients, respectively. High SLC2A1 expression was associated with good prognosis (HRRav, 0.67; P (HRR >1)  < 0.01) and high VEGFA expression to poor prognosis (HRRav, 1.84; P (HRR < 1)  = 0.02), also after multivariate analysis including established clinicopathological prognostic variables (HRRav, 0.67; P (HRR > 1)  < 0.01 and HRRav, 1.50; P (HRR < 1)  = 0.02, respectively). SLC2A1 showed prognostic value particularly in patients treated with systemic therapy (P < 0.01), whereas the prognostic value of VEGFA expression was mainly observed in patients not treated with systemic therapy (P < 0.01). Prognosis was especially poor in patients with both low SLC2A1 and high VEGFA expression (P < 0.01). HIF1α expression was not associated with survival., Conclusions: SLC2A1 and VEGFA expression are prognostic molecular biomarkers for patients with CRCLM with added value to established clinicopathological variables.

Background: We aimed to predict the long-term colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and colonoscopy demand of the recently implemented Dutch colorectal cancer screening program., Methods: The Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal Cancer model was set up to simulate the Dutch screening program consisting of biennial fecal immunochemical testing combined with the new Dutch surveillance guidelines, between 2014 and 2044. The impact of screening and surveillance was evaluated under three sets of natural history assumptions differing in the contribution of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer incidence. In sensitivity analyses, other assumptions concerning the serrated pathway were varied. Model-predicted outcomes were yearly colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and colonoscopy demand per year., Results: Assuming an aging population, colorectal cancer incidence under 30 years of screening is predicted to decrease by 35% and 31% for a contribution of 0% and 30% of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer, respectively. For colorectal cancer mortality, reductions are 47% and 45%. In 2044, 110,000 colonoscopies will be required annually assuming no contribution of the serrated pathway (27 per 1,000 individuals in the screening age range). Including the serrated pathway influences predicted screening effectiveness if serrated lesions are neither detected nor treated at colonoscopy, and/or if colorectal cancers arising from serrated lesions have substantially lower survival rates than those arising from adenomas., Conclusions: The Dutch screening program will markedly decrease colorectal cancer incidence and mortality but considerable colonoscopy resources will be required., Impact: Predictions of long-term screening effectiveness are preferably based on both pathways to colorectal cancer to transparently describe the impact of uncertainties regarding the serrated pathway on long-term predictions., (©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Rationale: Autofluorescence bronchoscopy (AFB) and computed tomography (CT) enable lung cancer (LC) detection at the early (pre-)invasive stage. However, LC risk in patients with preinvasive endobronchial lesions is unclear., Objectives: To assess LC incidence and identify potential risk determinants in patients with preinvasive lesions., Methods: In our tertiary care referral center, 164 subjects with preinvasive lesions were monitored up to 12.5 years by repeated AFB and CT. Occurrence of LC was monitored. Clinical management depended on histological grade, with cancer patients receiving standard care. Potential risk determinants (smoking status, baseline histology, cancer history, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] status) were evaluated in relation to cancer occurrence, event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS)., Measurements and Main Results: During surveillance (median of 30 mo, range 4-152) of 164 subjects with preinvasive lesions (80 high grade and 84 low grade at inclusion), 61 LCs were detected in 55 subjects (median time to event 16.5 mo). Twenty-three LCs (38%) were detected by CT, and 38 (62%) were detected by AFB. More cancers (36 of 61; 59%) developed from separate, rather than initial lesional sites. Subjects with high-grade lesions were more likely to be diagnosed with LC at the same or another site in the lungs than those with low-grade lesions (P = 0.03). Independent risk determinants for OS were previous curatively treated cancer and COPD (P ≤ 0.05)., Conclusions: Presence of preinvasive lesions, especially high-grade lesions, may serve as LC risk markers. LCs occur both at preinvasive lesion sites and elsewhere in the bronchial epithelium or lung parenchyma. Prospective validation of biomarkers and randomized intervention studies are needed to determine optimal management strategies.

Purpose: To evaluate long-term health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography (PET)-based isotoxic accelerated radiation therapy treatment (PET-ART) compared with conventional fixed-dose CT-based radiation therapy treatment (CRT) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)., Methods and Materials: Our analysis uses a validated decision model, based on data of 200 NSCLC patients with inoperable stage I-IIIB. Clinical outcomes, resource use, costs, and utilities were obtained from the Maastro Clinic and the literature. Primary model outcomes were the difference in life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost/utility ratio (ICER and ICUR) of PET-ART versus CRT. Model outcomes were obtained from averaging the predictions for 50,000 simulated patients. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analyses were carried out., Results: The average incremental costs per patient of PET-ART were €569 (95% confidence interval [CI] €-5327-€6936) for 0.42 incremental LYs (95% CI 0.19-0.61) and 0.33 QALYs gained (95% CI 0.13-0.49). The base-case scenario resulted in an ICER of €1360 per LY gained and an ICUR of €1744 per QALY gained. The probabilistic analysis gave a 36% probability that PET-ART improves health outcomes at reduced costs and a 64% probability that PET-ART is more effective at slightly higher costs., Conclusion: On the basis of the available data, individualized PET-ART for NSCLC seems to be cost-effective compared with CRT., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) are commonly used in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Diagnostic accuracy of FIT differs between males and females. This so far unexplained difference could result in a dissimilarity in screening outcome between both sexes. The aim of this study is to compare sensitivity and specificity of a FIT between males and females, and study potential explanatory variables., Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data were prospectively collected. 3,022 subjects performed a FIT prior to complete colonoscopy. Sensitivity, specificity, and ROC curves were compared for both sexes. Potential explanatory variables of the relation between sensitivity and sex were explored., Results: At all cut-off values, FIT sensitivity for CRC was higher (range 13-23%) and specificity was lower (range 2-4%) in males compared to females. At 75 ng/ml, sensitivity for CRC was 93% in males compared to 71% in females (p = 0.03), and specificity was 90% in males compared to 93% in females (p = <0.05). For advanced adenomas, males had a slightly higher sensitivity and lower specificity (not significant). At 75 ng/ml, sensitivity for advanced adenomas was 33% in males compared to 29% in females (p = 0.46), and specificity was 93% in males compared to 95% in females (p = 0.22). ROC curves were similar for both sexes, and equal combinations of sensitivity and specificity could be achieved by adjusting the cut-off values. For CRC, the difference in sensitivity could not be explained by age or location of the tumour., Conclusions: FIT has a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity for CRC in males than in females. Equal test characteristics can be achieved by allowing separate cut-off values for both sexes. Location and age do not explain the observed differences in sensitivity.

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen-induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma-carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma-carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age- and sex-specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one-time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC., (© 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Objective: To assess and summarise the economic evidence regarding diagnostic tests, treatment and prevention for lateral ankle sprains., Methods: Potential studies were identified from electronic databases and trial registries and by scanning reference lists. Risk of bias and methodological quality were evaluated. Two independent reviewers screened, assessed studies and extracted data. Data were synthesised descriptively due to study heterogeneity., Results: A total of 230 records were identified; 10 studies were included. Five studies conducted a full economic evaluation and five studies involved cost analyses. Lack of blinding was the main risk of bias. The methodological quality of the full economic evaluations was fairly good. Valuation of costs, measurement of outcomes and sensitivity analysis were points for improvement. Single studies showed that the Ottawa ankle rules (OAR) was cost effective for diagnosing lateral ankle sprains in the emergency setting compared with existing hospital protocols; acute treatment with anti-inflammatory medication and the plaster cast for severe sprains appeared cost effective; and neuromuscular training was cost effective in preventing ankle re-injury., Conclusions: Results of this current systematic review supplements the evidence provided by reviews of effectiveness. There is evidence to support the implementation of OAR in the emergency setting, the use of anti-inflammatory medication and the plaster cast in the acute phase, and the prescription of neuromuscular exercises to prevent re-injury. Although the evidence is limited due to the low number of studies, shortcomings in methodological quality and small sample sizes, the findings may be used to inform clinical practice and practice guidelines.

Background: Tumor stroma plays an important role in the progression and metastasis of colon cancer. The glycoproteins versican and lumican are overexpressed in colon carcinomas and are associated with the formation of tumor stroma. The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential prognostic value of versican and lumican expression in the epithelial and stromal compartment of Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stage II and III colon cancer., Methods: Clinicopathological data and tissue samples were collected from stage II (n = 226) and stage III (n = 160) colon cancer patients. Tissue microarrays were constructed with cores taken from both the center and the periphery of the tumor. These were immunohistochemically stained for lumican and versican. Expression levels were scored on digitized slides. Statistical evaluation was performed., Results: Versican expression by epithelial cells in the periphery of the tumor, i.e., near the invasive front, was correlated to a longer disease-free survival for the whole cohort (P = 0.01), stage III patients only (P = 0.01), stage III patients with microsatellite-instable tumors (P = 0.04), and stage III patients with microsatellite-stable tumors who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy (P = 0.006). Lumican expression in epithelial cells overall in the tumor was correlated to a longer disease-specific survival in stage II patients (P = 0.05) and to a longer disease-free survival and disease-specific survival in microsatellite-stable stage II patients (P = 0.02 and P = 0.004)., Conclusions: Protein expression of versican and lumican predicted good clinical outcome for stage III and II colon cancer patients, respectively.

Background: Given the increasing burden on colonoscopy capacity, it has been suggested that faecal immunochemical test (FIT) results could guide surveillance colonoscopy intervals. Against this background, we have evaluated the test accuracy of single and double FIT sampling to detect colorectal cancer (CRC) and/or advanced adenomas in an asymptomatic colonoscopy-controlled high-risk population., Methods: Cohort study of asymptomatic high-risk patients (personal history of adenomas/CRC or family history of CRC), who provided one or two FITs before elective colonoscopy. Test accuracy of FIT for detection of CRC and advanced adenomas was determined (cut-off level 50 ng/ml)., Results: 1,041 patients provided a FIT (516 personal history of adenomas, 172 personal history of CRC and 353 family history of CRC). Five CRCs (0.5%) and 101 advanced adenomas (9.7%) were detected by colonoscopy. Single FIT sampling resulted in a sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for CRC of 80%, 89%, 3% and 99.9%, respectively, and for advanced adenoma of 28%, 91%, 24% and 92%, respectively. Double FIT sampling did not result in a significantly higher sensitivity for advanced neoplasia. Simulation of multiple screening rounds indicated that sensitivity of FIT for advanced adenoma could reach 81% after 5 screening rounds., Conclusions: In once-only FIT sampling before surveillance colonoscopy, 70% of advanced neoplasia were missed. A simulation approach indicates that multiple screening rounds may be more promising in detecting advanced neoplasia and could potentially alleviate endoscopic burden.

Background: Colorectal cancer screening by fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) is hampered by frequent false-positive (FP) results and thereby the risk of complications and strain on colonoscopy capacity. Hemorrhoids might be a plausible cause of FP results., Objective: To determine the contribution of hemorrhoids to the frequency of FP FIT results., Design: Retrospective analysis from prospective cohort study., Setting: Five large teaching hospitals, including 1 academic hospital., Patients: All subjects scheduled for elective colonoscopy., Interventions: FIT before bowel preparation., Main Outcome Measurements: Frequency of FP FIT results in subjects with hemorrhoids as the only relevant abnormality compared with FP FIT results in subjects with no relevant abnormalities. Logistic regression analysis to determine colonic abnormalities influencing FP results., Results: In 2855 patients, 434 had positive FIT results: 213 had advanced neoplasia and 221 had FP results. In 9 individuals (4.1%; 95% CI, 1.4-6.8) with an FP FIT result, hemorrhoids were the only abnormality. In univariate unadjusted analysis, subjects with hemorrhoids as the only abnormality did not have more positive results (9/134; 6.7%) compared with subjects without any abnormalities (43/886; 4.9%; P = .396). Logistic regression identified hemorrhoids, nonadvanced polyps, and a group of miscellaneous abnormalities, all significantly influencing false positivity. Of 1000 subjects with hemorrhoids, 67 would have FP results, of whom 18 would have FP results because of hemorrhoids only., Limitations: Potential underreporting of hemorrhoids; high-risk individuals., Conclusions: Hemorrhoids in individuals participating in colorectal cancer screening will probably not lead to a substantial number of false-positive test results., (Copyright © 2012 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Overlap of depressive and anxiety symptoms is supposedly more common in non-Western populations. This can lead to diagnostic uncertainity and undertreatment., Aims: The aim of this study was to assess cross-cultural differences regarding the comorbidity of anxiety and depressive disorders in a comparative population study., Methods: In a random urban population sample, stratified for descent, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, diagnostic interviews were held by bilingual interviewers. Diagnoses of anxiety and depressive disorders, based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, were obtained for 307 native Dutch subjects, 205 Turkish-Dutch subjects and 186 Moroccan-Dutch subjects., Results: The prevalence rate of comorbid anxiety and depressive disorders was higher in Turkish-Dutch (9.8 %) and Moroccan-Dutch (3.8%) subjects compared to native Dutch subjects (2.3%). However, this could be explained by differences in baseline prevalence rate and level of severity of the separate disorders. The onset order of anxiety disorders and depressive disorders was comparable in each ethnic group., Conclusions: The high prevalence rate of comorbid anxiety and depressive diorders in non-Western immigrants in the Netherlands necessitates assesssment and treatment of both disorders. There was no indication of a - culturally influenced - stronger overlap between anxiety and depressive disorders in non-Western immigrants in the Netherlands.

Using a bioinformatics-based strategy, we set out to identify hypermethylated genes that could serve as biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) in stool. In addition, the complementary value to a Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) was evaluated. Candidate genes were selected by applying cluster alignment and computational analysis of promoter regions to microarray-expression data of colorectal adenomas and carcinomas. DNA methylation was measured by quantitative methylation-specific PCR on 34 normal colon mucosa, 71 advanced adenoma, and 64 CRC tissues. The performance as biomarker was tested in whole stool samples from in total 193 subjects, including 19 with advanced adenoma and 66 with CRC. For a large proportion of these series, methylation data for GATA4 and OSMR were available for comparison. The complementary value to FIT was measured in stool subsamples from 92 subjects including 44 with advanced adenoma or CRC. Phosphatase and Actin Regulator 3 (PHACTR3) was identified as a novel hypermethylated gene showing more than 70-fold increased DNA methylation levels in advanced neoplasia compared with normal colon mucosa. In a stool training set, PHACTR3 methylation showed a sensitivity of 55% (95% CI: 33-75) for CRC and a specificity of 95% (95% CI: 87-98). In a stool validation set, sensitivity reached 66% (95% CI: 50-79) for CRC and 32% (95% CI: 14-57) for advanced adenomas at a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 86-100). Adding PHACTR3 methylation to FIT increased sensitivity for CRC up to 15%. PHACTR3 is a new hypermethylated gene in CRC with a good performance in stool DNA testing and has complementary value to FIT.

Cross-protection against non-HPV16/18 types and the emergence of broad spectrum vaccines protecting against multiple HPV types will influence the cost-effectiveness of future screening. To assess this influence we used an individual-based simulation model describing the relation between 14 HPV types and cervical disease, allowing the occurrence of multiple type infections. Screening scenarios for vaccinated women were evaluated, firstly for HPV16/18 vaccination with partial cross-protection against HPV 31, 33, 45 and 58 and secondly, for broad spectrum vaccination against 5-13 HPV types. The vaccine-induced incidence reduction of type-specific infection was varied from 0 to 95% in the cross-protection setting and set at 100% in the setting of broad spectrum vaccines. Scenarios of either cytology or HPV DNA screening were considered under varying lifetime number of screening rounds. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of €20,000/QALY, four times HPV DNA screening between 30 and 60 years was the selected scenario in addition to HPV16/18 vaccination, whether or not cross-protection was conferred (€6707 and €9994/QALY, respectively). In the absence of cross-protection, a fifth screening round might be considered (ICER €22,967/QALY). In addition to broad spectrum vaccination, one screen during lifetime was cost-effective up to an 11-valent vaccine. If the vaccine-induced type-specific incidence reduction was lowered to 99%, one screen during lifetime was cost-effective even in addition to 13-valent vaccination. In conclusion, in a cohort of HPV16/18 vaccinated women, four rounds of HPV DNA screening is cost-effective. One screen during lifetime remains cost-effective in addition to broad spectrum vaccination offering protection against many high-risk HPV types., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In past decades, studies focusing on new chemotherapeutic agents for patients with inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer have reported only modest gains in survival. These health gains are achieved at considerable cost, but economic evidence is lacking on superiority of one agent in terms of cost effectiveness. The objective of this systematic review was to assess fully published cost-effectiveness studies comparing the new agents docetaxel, paclitaxel, vinorelbine, gemcitabine and pemetrexed, and the targeted therapies erlotinib and gefitinib with one another. We performed systematic searches in the bibliographic databases PubMed, EMBASE and Health Economic Evaluations (HEED) [via the Cochrane Library] for fully published studies from the past 10 years. Studies were screened by two independent reviewers according to a priori inclusion criteria. The methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated by two independent reviewers using standardized assessment tools. A total of 222 potential studies were identified; 11 studies and six reviews were included. The methodological quality of the full economic evaluations was fairly good. Transparency in costs and resource use, details on statistical tests and sensitivity analysis were points for improvement. In first-line treatment, gemcitabine+cisplatin was cost effective compared with other platinum-based regimens (paclitaxel, docetaxel and vinorelbine). In one study, pemetrexed+cisplatin was cost effective compared with gemcitabine+cisplatin in patients with non-squamous-cell carcinoma. In second-line treatment, docetaxel was cost effective compared with best supportive care; erlotinib was cost effective compared with placebo; and docetaxel and pemetrexed were dominated by erlotinib. We found indications of superiority in terms of cost effectiveness for gemcitabine+cisplatin in a first-line setting, and for erlotinib in a second-line setting.

Background: The use of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines has been universally approved for women from age 12 to 25 years, but those older than 16 years receive no reimbursement for the cost of the vaccine in the Netherlands. Reductions in the vaccine price as well as new insights in the efficacy of HPV vaccines offer renewed arguments to consider HPV vaccination in adult women. We calculated the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of vaccinating women aged 17-25 years in 2010., Methods: The calculations were based on an individual-based simulation model for cervical carcinogenesis, with HPV infection risks obtained from a type-specific HPV transmission model. The indirect protective effect from vaccinating 12 to 16 year-old girls was adjusted for. Cervical screening in the model was incorporated according Dutch screening guidelines, i.e. 7 cytology-based rounds at 5-year intervals from the age of 30. As base-case, we assumed the vaccine to offer full protection against HPV16/18 only if no prior exposure to that type had occurred before vaccination. In sensitivity analyses, we considered partial cross-protection against types 31/33/45/58 and efficacy against all future infections, irrespective of previous or current infection status., Results: In base-case analyses, vaccinating 17 year-olds reduced their lifetime risk of treatment for precancerous lesions from 7.77% to 3.48% and their lifetime cervical cancer risk from 0.52% to 0.24%. These risks were 6.12% and 0.45%, respectively, for a 25 year-old vaccinee. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for vaccinating 17-25 year-olds was €22,526 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) at a vaccine price of €65 per dose, a 50% reduction of the 2010 pharmacy price in the Netherlands. If cross-protection against types 31/33/45/58 was included, the ICER decreased to €14,734 per QALY. Results were robust to efficacy assumptions with respect to previous or current infection status., Conclusion: The clinical benefit of HPV vaccination of women up to 25 years moderately depends on cross-protection to non-vaccine types. Refunding the cost of the vaccine to 17-25 year-old women in the Netherlands can be considered cost-effective at anticipated price reductions., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: A single sampled faecal immunochemical test (FIT) has moderate sensitivity for colorectal cancer and advanced adenomas. Repeated FIT sampling could improve test sensitivity. The aim of the present study is to determine whether any of three different strategies of double FIT sampling has a better combination of sensitivity and specificity than single FIT sampling., Methods: Test performance of single FIT sampling in subjects scheduled for colonoscopy was compared to double FIT sampling intra-individually. Test positivity of double FIT sampling was evaluated in three different ways: 1) "one of two FITs+" when at least one out of two measurements exceeded the cut-off value, 2) "two of two FITs+" when both measurements exceeded the cut-off value, 3) "mean of two FITs+" when the geometric mean of two FITs exceeded the cut-off value. Receiver operator curves were calculated and sensitivity of single and the three strategies of double FIT sampling were compared at a fixed level of specificity., Results: In 124 of 1096 subjects, screen relevant neoplasia (SRN) were found (i.e. early stage CRC or advanced adenomas). At any cut-off, "two of two FITs+" resulted in the lowest and "one of two FITs+" in the highest sensitivity for SRN (range 35-44% and 42%-54% respectively). ROC's of double FIT sampling were similar to single FIT sampling. At specificities of 85/90/95%, sensitivity of any double FIT sampling strategy did not differ significantly from single FIT (p-values 0.07-1)., Conclusion: At any cut off, "one of two FITs+" is the most sensitive double FIT sampling strategy. However, at a given specificity level, sensitivity of any double FIT sampling strategy for SRN is comparable to single FIT sampling at a different cut-off value. None of the double FIT strategies has a superior combination of sensitivity and specificity over single FIT., (© 2011 Oort et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.)

Background: Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16/18 is being implemented in many countries. There may be indirect benefit of HPV vaccination to nonvaccinated women, who may experience a reduced risk of infection with vaccine-preventable types (herd immunity). We attempt to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of HPV vaccination, while accounting for 14 oncogenic HPV types in a dynamic modeling framework., Methods: On the basis of vaccine uptake among preadolescent girls in the Netherlands, we calculated how heterosexual transmission of HPV-16/18 is expected to change as a result of vaccination, and used these predictions in an individual-based simulation model of cervical carcinogenesis that considers 14 high-risk HPV types. Models were parameterized to match prevaccine data on type-specific HPV infection and cervical disease., Results: At 50% vaccine coverage, the estimated lifetime infection risk in nonvaccinated women dropped from 0.46 (95% credible interval = 0.35-0.54) to 0.37 (0.26-0.46) for HPV-16, and from 0.40 (0.32-0.46) to 0.31 (0.22-0.36) [corrected] for HPV-18. For the whole population, we calculated an eventual 47% reduction in cervical cancer incidence, with 1 in 4 cases prevented among nonvaccinated women. The number of indirectly averted cancer cases was highest with vaccine coverage between 50% and 70%, approximating 70 cases per 100,000 women born from 2010 onward., Conclusions: HPV-16/18 vaccination of preadolescent girls will markedly lower infection rates among nonvaccinated women. Reduced transmission of vaccine-preventable HPV becomes a prominent aspect of cervical cancer control, especially in populations with moderate vaccine coverage.

Purpose: Screening women for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cervical cancer (CIN3(+)) by high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing has as side-effect the detection of hrHPV-positive women without clinically relevant lesions. Here, we developed an objective assay assessing the methylation status of the promoter regions of CADM1 and MAL to triage hrHPV-positive women for CIN3(+)., Experimental Design: In a training set (51 women with CIN3(+) and 224 without CIN2(+)), panels consisting of one to four quantitative methylation-specific PCR (qMSP) assays (CADM1-m12,CADM1-m18,MAL-m1,MAL-m2) were analyzed. Cross-validated receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed and the panel with highest partial cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) was used for validation in an independent set of 236 consecutive hrHPV-positive women from a screening cohort. In the validation set, the ROC curve of the panel was compared with CIN3(+) sensitivity and specificity of cytology and of cytology combined with HPV16/18 genotyping., Results: In the training set, CADM1-m18 combined with MAL-m1 was the best panel (cross-validated partial AUC = 0.719). In the validation set, this panel revealed CIN3(+) sensitivities ranging from 100% (95% CI: 92.4-100) to 60.5% (95% CI: 47.1-74.6), with corresponding specificities ranging from 22.7% (95% CI: 20.2-25.2) to 83.3% (95% CI: 78.4-87.4). For cytology these were 65.8% (95% CI: 52.3-79.0) and 78.8% (95% CI: 73.7-83.1) and for cytology/HPV16/18, these were 84.2% (95% CI: 72.0-92.7) and 54.0% (95% CI: 49.2-58.7), respectively. The point estimates of both cytology and cytology/HPV16/18 were equal to the values of the ROC curve of CADM1-m18/MAL-m1., Conclusions: We developed an objective methylation marker panel that was equally discriminatory for CIN3(+) as cytology or cytology with HPV16/18 genotyping in hrHPV-positive women. This opens the possibility for complete cervical screening by objective, nonmorphological molecular methods., (©2011 AACR.)

Background: Direct healthcare costs of patients with symptomatic diverticular disease randomized for either laparoscopic or open elective sigmoid resection are compared. Cost-effectiveness analysis of the laparoscopic approach compared with open sigmoid resections is presented., Methods: An economic evaluation of the randomized control Sigma trial was conducted, comparing elective laparoscopic sigmoid resection (LSR) to open sigmoid resection (OSR) in patients with symptomatic diverticulitis. Prospective registration of detailed intervention units per patient resulted in actual resource use per individual patient. To avoid distributional assumptions, the nonparametric bootstrap was applied. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, differences in total cost between LSR and OSR were compared with the differences in VAS pain score, SF-36 values for general health, and complication rate., Results: The difference in total healthcare costs between the group that received LSR (euro 9969) and the group that received OSR (euro 9366) was not statistically significant. The slight increase in total costs was determined mainly by the significantly higher operation costs of LSR (euro 6663 vs. euro 5306). Lower costs for hospitalization (euro 2983 vs. euro 3598), blood products (euro 87 vs. euro 240), paramedical services (euro 157 vs. euro 278), and emergency attendance (euro 72 vs. euro 115) in the LSR group partially compensated these increased operation costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) indicate that improvements in pain, quality of life, and complication rate could be achieved at limited costs., Conclusion: Total healthcare costs of laparoscopic and open elective sigmoid resections for symptomatic diverticular disease are similar. As the clinical outcomes are in favor of the LSR group, candidates for an elective sigmoid resection should preferably be approached laparoscopically.