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We report on the discovery of a grounding-line sedimentary wedge ("till delta") deposited by Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica. Our observation is that grounding-line deposition serves to thicken the ice and stabilize the position of the grounding line. The ice thickness at the grounding line is greater than that of floating ice in hydrostatic equilibrium. Thus, the grounding line will tend to remain in the same location despite changes in sea level (until sea level rises enough to overcome the excess thickness that is due to the wedge). Further, our observation demonstrates the occurrence of rapid subglacial erosion, sediment transport by distributed subglacial till deformation, and grounding-line sedimentation, which have important implications for ice dynamics, numerical modeling of ice flow, and interpretation of the sedimentation record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major meltwater body exists beneath a tributary of Bindschadler Ice Stream, West Antarctica, in a region where subglacial lakes have not been mapped but near where rapid vertical motion of the ice sheet surface has suggested shifting of a subglacial water body. The water is trapped by a local reversal in ice-air surface slope arising from ice flow over variable basal topography and from the positive feedback of basal lubrication from the trapped water. Strong variations in the water content of the sediments upglacier of the water body arise from a similar process. These results are revealed by a novel application of the amplitude variation with offset (AVO) seismic technique. The existence of such water bodies and of the strong spatial variation in subglacial sediment properties is not captured in current models of subglacial hydrology, lubrication of ice stream motion, and sediment transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major West Antarctic ice stream discharges by sudden and brief periods of very rapid motion paced by oceanic tidal oscillations of about 1 meter. Acceleration to speeds greater than 1 meter per hour and deceleration back to a stationary state occur in minutes or less. Slip propagates at approximately 88 meters per second, suggestive of a shear wave traveling within the subglacial till. A model of an episodically slipping friction-locked fault reproduces the observed quasi-periodic event timing, demonstrating an ice stream's ability to change speed rapidly and its extreme sensitivity to subglacial conditions and variations in sea level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basal ice of glaciers and ice sheets frequently contains a well-developed stratification of distinct, semi-continuous, alternating layers of debris-poor and debris-rich ice. Here, the nature and distribution of shear within stratified basal ice are assessed through the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of samples collected from Matanuska Glacier, Alaska. Generally, the AMS reveals consistent moderate-to-strong fabrics reflecting simple shear in the direction of ice flow; however, AMS is also dependent upon debris content and morphology. While sample anisotropy is statistically similar throughout the sampled section, debris-rich basal ice composed of semi-continuous mm-scale layers (the stratified facies) possesses well-defined triaxial to oblate fabrics reflecting shear in the direction of ice flow, whereas debris-poor ice containing mm-scale star-shaped silt aggregates (the suspended facies) possesses nearly isotropic fabrics. Thus, deformation within the stratified basal ice appears concentrated in debris-rich layers, likely the result of decreased crystal size and greater availability of unfrozen water associated with high debris content. These results suggest that variations in debris-content over small spatial scales influence ice rheology and deformation in the basal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional‐scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow‐dependent transport errors. During a 1‐month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3‐hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO2 uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO2 background uncertainties is especially large for column‐averaged CO2. These results suggest that transport errors and CO2 background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems. Plain Language Summary: Accurate estimates of regional‐scale CO2 surface fluxes are essential to improve our understanding of the carbon cycle and to verify human CO2 emission inventories. CO2 surface fluxes can be inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements through inversion methods, which use atmospheric transport models to relate CO2 concentration to fluxes. However, previous studies have shown that inversion results can be sensitive to errors in the simulated atmospheric transport. To better understand how to account for such transport errors, we characterize the uncertainties in simulated CO2 concentration due to uncertainties in atmospheric transport by running an ensemble of perturbed transport simulations in a regional atmospheric model. Our results show that CO2 uncertainties due to transport uncertainties are about half the magnitude as uncertainties due to erroneous CO2 surface fluxes while displaying similar spatial and temporal patterns. Transport uncertainties are reduced when CO2 is time averaged, but at the same time the influence of uncertainties in the CO2 background concentration is increased at longer timescales. Thus, the flux signals in regional inversions are degraded by transport errors and CO2 background errors at different timescales, and it is imperative to properly account for these errors to obtain reliable regional‐scale CO2 flux estimates. Key Points: We quantify CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields at the regional scale and submonthly timescalesAtmospheric CO2 estimates that are strongly influenced by CO2 surface fluxes tend to also have large transport uncertaintiesThe signal‐to‐noise ratio in in situ CO2 is limited by transport errors at subweekly timescales and CO2 background errors at longer scales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 21,915 glacier-bed icequakes reveal dynamics of transient glacier slip processes. • Water pressure transient intensity directly influences (a)seismicity of glacier slip. • Glacier bed "sticky-spots" may represent the strongest—but not only—asperities. • Debris effects on drag and seismicity explain slip observation and theory misfits. Glacier slip modulates sea-level rise. Most slip models assume quasi-equilibrium process dynamics and debris-free basal ice, but observations regularly show debris-rich basal ice sliding under transient external forcings, placing theory and observation in tension. Seismicity generated by slip (icequake activity) provides a window into subglacial dynamics, but basal icequakes are often too sparse to resolve diagnostic trends at scales relevant to reveal slip-facilitating processes. We present a rich icequake catalog from an alpine glacier with sub-diurnal and decametric resolution that overcomes these limitations. We find characteristic trends between subglacial hydrology, slip, and seismicity that corroborate emerging models of transient slip over hard beds and highlight the importance of basal debris in slip dynamics. Specifically, icequakes are more abundant when subglacial cavities are likely large—a configuration that favors reduced drag in debris-free models—but this occurs as slip decelerates. Drag between entrained debris and the bed is enhanced under the same conditions and favors seismogenesis, which reconciles this discrepancy and may indicate slip-stabilizing feedback not considered in most models of glacier motion. Furthermore, we characterize spatial, temporal, and magnitude scaling patterns in this seismic catalog consistent with trends observed in previous glacier seismicity studies, suggesting that the slip-facilitating process dynamics characterized at Saskatchewan Glacier are relevant in other parts of the cryosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a high‐resolution shear wave velocity model of Greenland's lithosphere from regional and teleseismic Rayleigh waves recorded by the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network supplemented with observations from several temporary seismic deployments. To construct Rayleigh wave group velocity maps, we integrated signals from regional and teleseismic earthquakes with several years of ambient seismic noise and used the dispersion to constrain crustal and upper‐mantle seismic shear wave velocity structure. Specifically, we used a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to estimate 3‐D shear wave velocities beneath Greenland to a depth of 200 km. Our model reveals four prominent anomalies: a deep high‐velocity feature extending from southwestern to northwestern Greenland that may be the signature of a thick cratonic keel, a corridor of relatively low upper‐mantle velocity across central Greenland that could be associated with lithospheric modification from the passage of the Iceland plume beneath Greenland or interpreted as a tectonic boundary between cratonic blocks, an upper‐crustal southwest‐northeast trending boundary separating Greenland into two regions of contrasting tectonic and crustal properties, and a midcrustal low‐velocity anomaly beneath northeastern Greenland. The nature of this midcrustal anomaly is of particular interest given that it underlies the onset of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and raises interesting questions regarding how deeper processes may impact the ice stream dynamics and the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points: We present a high‐resolution shear wave velocity model of Greenland's lithosphereOur model provides new constraints on the location of the Iceland plume track beneath GreenlandWe find evidence for a midcrustal low‐velocity anomaly beneath the onset of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ~500 y before 1800 to ~25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ~5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth’s climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO2. This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes’ sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was 11.3±1.8°C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We predict the perturbation to the Earth's length-of-day (LOD) over the Common Era using a recently derived estimate of global sea-level change for this time period. We use this estimate to derive a time series of “clock error”, defined as the difference in timing of two clocks, one based on a theoretically invariant time scale (terrestrial time) and one fixed to Earth rotation (universal time), and compare this time series to millennial scale variability in clock error inferred from ancient eclipse records. Under the assumption that global sea-level change over the Common Era is driven by ice mass flux alone, we find that this flux can reconcile a significant fraction of the discrepancies between clock error computed assuming constant slowing of Earth's rotation and that inferred from eclipse records since 700 CE. In contrast, ice mass flux cannot reconcile the temporal variability prior to 700 CE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the processes that affect streaming ice flow and the mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets requires sound knowledge of their subglacial environments. Previous studies have shown that an extensive deformable subglacial sediment layer favors fast ice-stream flow. However, areas of high basal drag, termed sticky spots, are of particular interest because they inhibit the fast flow of the overriding ice. The stick-slip behavior of Whillans Ice Stream (WIS) is perhaps the most conspicuous manifestation of a subglacial sticky spot. We present new ice-thickness and seismic-reflection measurements collected over the main sticky spot in the ice plain of WIS, allowing us to elucidate its role in the behavior of the ice stream. Ice-thickness and surface-elevation data show that the sticky spot occupies a subglacial topographic high. Water flow in response to the hydrological potential gradient will be routed around the sticky spot if effective pressures are similar on the sticky spot and elsewhere. The seismic experiment imaged a laterally continuous basal layer approximately 6 m thick, having compressional wave velocities of greater than 1800 m s −1 and density greater than 1800 kg m −3 , indicative of a till layer that is stiffer than corresponding till beneath well-lubricated parts of the ice stream. This layer likely continues to deform under the higher shear stress of the sticky spot, and some water may be pumped up onto the sticky spot during motion events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass and contributing to global sea-level rise at an accelerating rate. Although recent observations and modeling have identified the incursion of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) beneath the PIG ice shelf (PIGIS) as the main driver of this ice-mass loss, the lack of precise bathymetry limits furthering our understanding of the ice–ocean interactions and improving the accuracy of modeling. Here we present updated bathymetry and sediment distribution beneath the PIGIS, modeled by the inversion of aerogravity data with constraints from active-source seismic data, observations from an autonomous underwater vehicle, and the regional gravity-anomaly field derived from satellite gravity observations. Modeled bathymetry shows a submarine ridge beneath the middle of PIGIS that rises ∼350 to 400 m above the surrounding sea floor, with a minimum water-column thickness of ∼200 m above it. This submarine ridge continues across the whole width of the 45-km wide ice shelf, with no deep troughs crossing it, confirming the general features of the previously predicted sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation. However, the relatively low resolution of the aerogravity data and limitations in our inversion method leave a possibility that there is an undetected, few-kilometers-wide or narrower trough that may alter the predicted sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation. Modeled sediment distribution indicates a sedimentary basin of up to ∼800 m thick near the current grounding zone of the main PIG trunk and extending farther inland, and a region seaward of the submarine ridge where sediments are thin or absent with exposed crystalline basement that extends seaward into Pine Island Bay. Therefore, the submarine ridge marks the transition from a thick sedimentary basin providing a smooth interface over which ice could flow easily by sliding or sediment deformation, to a region with no to little sediments and instead a rough interface over which ice flows mainly by deformation. We hypothesize that the post-Last Glacial Maximum retreat of PIG stabilized at this location because of the spatial transition in basal conditions. This in turn supports the hypothesis that the recent retreat of PIG was strongly forced, probably by changes in ocean circulation, rather than occurring because of ongoing response to the end of the ice age or other changes inland of or beneath PIG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melt layers are clear indicators of extreme summer warmth on polar ice caps. The visual identification of refrozen meltwater as clear bubble-free layers cannot be used to study some past warm periods, because, in deeper ice, bubbles are lost to clathrate formation. We present here a reliable method to detect melt events, based on the analysis of Kr/Ar and Xe/Ar ratios in ice cores, and apply it to the detection of melt in clathrate ice from the Eemian at NEEM, Greenland. Additionally, melt layers in ice cores can compromise the integrity of the gas record by dissolving soluble gases, or by altering gas transport in the firn, which affects the gas chronology. We find that the easily visible 1mm thick bubble-free layers in the WAIS Divide ice core do not contain sufficient melt to alter the gas composition in the core, and do not cause artifacts or discontinuities in the gas chronology. The presence of these layers during winter, and the absence of anomalies in soluble gases, suggests that these layers can be formed by processes other than refreezing of meltwater. Consequently, the absence of bubbles in thin crusts is not in itself proof of a melt event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermodynamic flowline and plume models for the ice shelf-ocean system simplify the ice and ocean dynamics sufficiently to allow extensive exploration of parameters affecting ice-sheet stability while including key physical processes. Comparison between geophysically and laboratory-based treatments of ice-ocean interface thermodynamics shows reasonable agreement between calculated melt rates, except where steep basal slopes and relatively high ocean temperatures are present. Results are especially sensitive to the poorly known drag coefficient, highlighting the need for additional field experiments to constrain its value. These experiments also suggest that if the ice-ocean interface near the grounding line is steeper than some threshold, further steepening of the slope may drive higher entrainment that limits buoyancy, slowing the plume and reducing melting; if confirmed, this will provide a stabilizing feedback on ice sheets under some circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Active subglacial lakes concentrate the distribution of water beneath ice sheets in both space and time. Seismic and surface observations from Subglacial Lake Whillans (SLW), West Antarctica, reveal that this active lake forms a persistent, albeit fluctuating, reservoir beneath Whillans Ice Stream. Imaging and phase observations using active-source seismic data show that SLW is a perpetually shallow feature. When surveyed near its low-stand, a water column was resolvable by seismic techniques along only 5km of the 45km profiled, with a maximum depth of less than 8m. Satellite altimetry shows that the high-stand adds no more than 3–4m to this. This water column presents a suitable drill site at S 84.240° W 153.694°. Elsewhere, the majority of the bed appears wet with soft sediment or water thicknesses of less than the imaging resolution of our data of approximately 2m. The surface expression of the active lake, previously revealed by ICESat elevation data and image differencing, generally corresponds to the seismic estimate of soft sediment or water, with notable exceptions occurring at the upstream and downstream ends of the lake. These exceptions indicate that SLW''s water column is very shallow or absent in places at low-stands, or has disconnected or transiently active and inactive portions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ice-penetrating radar and kinematic GPS observations from Subglacial Lake Whillans (SLW), West Antarctica, reveal a shallow lake that is confined by steep basal topographic features. Radar imaging of SLW, although indicating wet basal conditions, is consistent with a water column depth of only ~6m or less during the near low-stand state at the time of the survey. Kinematic GPS profiles reveal that SLW is generally defined by a ~15m surface depression centered at S 84.237° W 153.614°. This point coincides with the area of lowest hydropotential in the lake basin and also the largest surface elevation range in ICESat data. Therefore this location appears to be an opportune site for subglacial access drilling of this active subglacial lake. A distinct basal topographic ridge on the grid south side of the basin is coincident with a strong contrast in relative basal reflectivity (~6dB), which we interpret as the lake boundary. Mapped hydropotential (calculated assuming hydrostatic equilibrium) shows that water enters the lake from the upstream direction and drains downstream. We hypothesize that a lake-level rise of ~5m plus flexural effects is sufficient to overtop a drainage divide. Thus SLW acts as a temporary storage basin for water beneath Whillans Ice Stream. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The statistical distributions of cosmogenic nuclide measurements from moraine boulders contain previously unused information on moraine ages, and they help determine whether moraine degradation or inheritance is more important on individual moraines. Here, we present a method for extracting this information by fitting geomorphic process models to observed exposure ages from single moraines. We also apply this method to 94 10Be apparent exposure ages from 11 moraines reported in four published studies. Our models represent 10Be accumulation in boulders that are exhumed over time by slope processes (moraine degradation), and the delivery of boulders with preexisting 10Be inventories to moraines (inheritance). For now, we neglect boulder erosion and snow cover, which are likely second-order processes. Given a highly scattered data set, we establish which model yields the better fit to the data, and estimate the age of the moraine from the better model fit. The process represented by the better-fitting model is probably responsible for most of the scatter among the apparent ages. Our methods should help resolve controversies in exposure dating; we reexamine the conclusions from two published studies based on our model fits. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The motion of Bindschadler Ice Stream, West Antarctica, is dominated by sliding over a nearly plastic bed, according to analysis of kinematic GPS data using a new viscoelastic flowline model. Inversions of time-averaged velocity data with viscous ice-flow models can be consistent with multiple sliding laws, but propagation of velocity perturbations in a viscoelastic model can distinguish between sliding laws with different exponents. We develop such a model and apply it to a time series of velocity for the tidally modulated flow of Bindschadler Ice Stream (formerly Ice Stream D). Observed velocity perturbations are found to be consistent with a flow-law exponent m ≥8, which indicates basal motion with a relatively weak till bed; lower exponents consistent with motion dominated by deformation within the ice over a hard or frozen bed are found to be unlikely. This result suggests that Bindschadler Ice Stream would respond rapidly and significantly to any future loss of buttressing from the Ross Ice Shelf. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We present the development and application of the novel in situ cosmogenic 14C/10Be chronometer to recently exposed proglacial bedrock of the Rhone Glacier, Switzerland. Results show that during the Holocene, the glacier was smaller than today for 6500 ± 2000 yr and larger than today for 4500 ± 2000 yr. This pattern is consistent with limited data from other techniques for glaciers in the Alps and Scandinavia, but in contrast to glaciers from the Southern Alps of New Zealand, emphasizing the high sensitivity of large mountain glaciers to small climate changes. The 14C/10Be chronometer also shows that abrasion rates beneath the Rhone Glacier increased with ice speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The catastrophic break-ups of the floating Larsen A and B ice shelves (Antarctica) in 1995 and 2002 and associated acceleration of glaciers that flowed into these ice shelves were among the most dramatic glaciological events observed in historical time. This raises a question about the larger West Antarctic ice shelves. Do these shelves, with their much greater glacial discharge, have a history of collapse? Here we describe features from the seafloor in Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica, which we interpret as having been formed during a massive ice shelf break-up and associated grounding line retreat. This evidence exists in the form of seafloor landforms that we argue were produced daily as a consequence of tidally influenced motion of mega-icebergs maintained upright in an iceberg armada produced from the disintegrating ice shelf and retreating grounding line. The break-up occurred prior to ca. 12 ka and was likely a response to rapid sea-level rise or ocean warming at that time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The stick–slip motion and associated seismic emissions of Whillans Ice Stream (WIS), West Antarctica are two of the many recent observations of unexpected ice sheet behavior that are challenging traditional models of rapid glacier motion. Here we find that the WIS slip events repeatedly nucleate from a sticky-spot located in the middle of the ice stream, acting similar to an asperity in traditional models of earthquake physics. This region shows less motion than surrounding areas during the inter-slip periods, thus, concentrating stress and producing a pulse of seismic energy at the onset of slip. The propagating rupture breaks through an additional asperity in the northern part of the ice stream, producing another pulse of seismic energy 6–12min after initiation. Both asperities are regions of higher hydraulic potential than surrounding regions, suggesting they may have greater bed friction due to reduced water lubrication. Tidal pacing of the stress accumulation combined with fault healing controls the applied stress at failure, with higher stress giving faster propagation of the rupture front and higher slip velocities; these differences are reflected in the timing of the teleseismic arrivals. Our results highlight both the great sensitivity of large ice streams to small changes in external forcing and the importance of limited regions of the subglacial bed in controlling their motion, as well as providing insights to the mechanics of repeating earthquakes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Larson, G.J., Lawson, D.E., Evenson, E.B., Knudsen, Ó., Alley, R.B. & Phanikumar, M.S. 2010: Origin of stratified basal ice in outlet glaciers of Vatnajökull and Öræfajökull, Iceland. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 457–470. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2009.00134.x. ISSN 0300-9483. During the period 2000–2005, we collected samples of englacial ice, vent water, frazil/anchor ice and stratified basal ice from warm-based outlet glaciers of Vatnajökull and Öræfajökull, Iceland, and analysed them for 3H, 18O and D. Results of 3H analyses show that the stratified basal ice contains 3H from atmospheric thermonuclear testing and is younger than the englacial ice. Results of the 18O and D analyses show that frazil/anchor and stratified basal ice are both enriched by an average of 2.4‰ in 18O and 11‰ in D relative to vent water. These values are consistent with fractionation during partial freezing of supercooled subglacial water in an open system, one in which the remaining water is continuously removed and replenished by water of similar composition. The isotopic data and field observations do not support either a regelation or a thermal ad-freeze-on origin for the stratified basal ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Younger Dryas event is by far the best studied of the millennial-scale cold snaps of glacial time. Yet its origin remains a subject of debate. The long-held scenario that the Younger Dryas was a one-time outlier triggered by a flood of water stored in proglacial Lake Agassiz has fallen from favor due to lack of a clear geomorphic signature at the correct time and place on the landscape. The recent suggestion that the Younger Dryas was triggered by the impact of a comet has not gained traction. Instead, evidence from Chinese stalagmites suggests that, rather than being a freak occurrence, the Younger Dryas is an integral part of the deglacial sequence of events that produced the last termination on a global scale. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The initial retreat of ice shelf grounding lines stabilized on seaward-sloping beds is influenced by the rheology of these beds, according to new model results. We apply a fully-coupled process model to investigate how the response of an ice stream to increased ocean temperature beneath its ice shelf depends on the assumed form of its basal flow law. For the same applied oceanic warming, the increase in grounding-line flux can be twice as great for an effectively-plastic bed as for a linear-viscous bed, suggesting that improved knowledge of the basal flow law of ice streams is necessary for predicting ice-sheet response to climatic forcing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Thirty-eight new cosmogenic (10Be) exposure ages from the Scoresby Sund region of east Greenland indicate that prominent moraine sets deposited by mountain glaciers date from 780 to 310yr, approximately during the Little Ice Age, from 11 660 to 10 630yr, at the end of the Younger Dryas cold interval or during Preboreal time, and from 13 010 to 11 630yr, during lateglacial time. Equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) interpreted from lateglacial to Early Holocene moraines indicate summertime cooling between ∼3.9 and 6.6°C relative to today''s value, much less than the extreme Younger Dryas cooling registered by Greenland ice cores (mean-annual temperatures of ∼15°C colder than today''s value). This apparent discrepancy between paleotemperature records supports the contention that Younger Dryas cooling was primarily a wintertime phenomenon. 10Be ages of lateglacial and Holocene moraines show that mountain glaciers during the Little Ice Age were more extensive than at any other time since the Early Holocene Epoch. In addition, 10Be ages of lateglacial moraines show extensive reworking of boulders with cosmogenic nuclides inherited from prior periods of exposure, consistent with our geomorphic observations and cosmogenic-exposure dating studies in other Arctic regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Glaciohydraulic supercooling has been observed at many modern glaciers and has been shown to generate thick zones of debris-laden basal ice which, when exposed to melting, can produce debris-flow and melt-out till deposits, as well as hummocky terrain. Glaciohydraulic supercooling probably occurred in former continental ice sheets, especially where ice flowed out of deep basins, or up steep slopes. Evidence to support glaciohydraulic supercooling in former ice sheets, however, is limited but may include sedimentary sequences of melt-out till and debris-flow deposits and hummocky terrain along the distal rim of overdeepenings and crests of adverse bed slopes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents research which concluded that during the Younger Dryas cold interval, the summit of Greenland was approximately 15 degrees Celsius colder than today. Fractionation of nitrogen and argon isotopes in snow due to rapid temperature change; Evidence that warming in this period was abrupt; Implications of rise in atmospheric methane concentration; Depth of nitrogen-isotope signal; Study of trapped air.

Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, is losing mass in response to oceanic forcing. Future evolution could lead to deglaciation of the marine basins of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, depending on ongoing and future climate forcings, but also on basal topography/bathymetry, basal properties, and physical processes operating within the grounding zone. Hence, it is important to know the distribution of bed types of TG's interior and grounding zone, and to incorporate them accurately in models in order to improve estimates of retreat rates and stability. Here we estimate properties of the bed by determining its acoustic impedance from amplitude analysis of reflection seismic data. We report on the results from two lines – a longitudinal (L-Line) and a transverse (N-Line) – on a central flowline of TG ∼100 km inland from the grounding zone. The data show considerable spatial variability in bed forms and properties, similar to results from a comparable survey farther inland. Notably, we find the same pattern here of hard (presumed bedrock) material on the stoss side of bumps and soft (presumed till) on the lee side. Physical understanding indicates the basal flow law describing motion over different regions of TG's bed likely varies from nearly-viscous over the bedrock regions to nearly-plastic over till regions, providing guidance for modeling. • The "hard" stoss and "soft" lee bed pattern persists downstream of prior observations. • Localized regions of water occur in the lees of bumps and the downstream end of lower Thwaites Glacier. • "Stoss-side-moats" in regions with high topographic relief are "hard" and may be locations of increased scour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response by the authors to a letter about their articles on the stability of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets in the March 24, 2006 issue is presented.

Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean warming in the twenty-first century to less than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and to promote further efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius 1 . The amount of greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades will be consequential for global mean sea level (GMSL) on century and longer timescales through a combination of ocean thermal expansion and loss of land ice 2 . The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is Earth's largest land ice reservoir (equivalent to 57.9 metres of GMSL) 3 , and its ice loss is accelerating 4 . Extensive regions of the AIS are grounded below sea level and susceptible to dynamical instabilities 5-8 that are capable of producing very rapid retreat 8 . Yet the potential for the implementation of the Paris Agreement temperature targets to slow or stop the onset of these instabilities has not been directly tested with physics-based models. Here we use an observationally calibrated ice sheet-shelf model to show that with global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less, Antarctic ice loss will continue at a pace similar to today's throughout the twenty-first century. However, scenarios more consistent with current policies (allowing 3 degrees Celsius of warming) give an abrupt jump in the pace of Antarctic ice loss after around 2060, contributing about 0.5 centimetres GMSL rise per year by 2100-an order of magnitude faster than today 4 . More fossil-fuel-intensive scenarios 9 result in even greater acceleration. Ice-sheet retreat initiated by the thinning and loss of buttressing ice shelves continues for centuries, regardless of bedrock and sea-level feedback mechanisms 10-12 or geoengineered carbon dioxide reduction. These results demonstrate the possibility that rapid and unstoppable sea-level rise from Antarctica will be triggered if Paris Agreement targets are exceeded.

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

Floating ice shelves of fast-flowing ice streams are prone to rift initiation and calving originating along zones of rapid shearing at their margins. Predicting future ice-shelf destabilization under a warming ocean scenario, with the resultant reduced buttressing, faster ice flow, and sea-level rise, therefore requires an understanding of the processes that thin and weaken these shear margins. Here, we use satellite data to show that high velocity gradients result in surface troughs along the margins of fast-flowing ice streams. These troughs are advected into ice-shelf margins, where the locally thinned ice floats upward to form basal troughs. Buoyant plumes of warm ocean water beneath ice shelves can be focused into these basal troughs, localizing melting and weakening the ice-shelf margins. This implies that major ice sheet drainages are preconditioned for rapid retreat in response to ocean warming., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains the equivalent of 7.4 metres of global sea-level rise. Its stability in our warming climate is therefore a pressing concern. However, the sparse proxy evidence of the palaeo-stability of the GIS means that its history is controversial (compare refs 2 and 3 to ref. 4). Here we show that Greenland was deglaciated for extended periods during the Pleistocene epoch (from 2.6 million years ago to 11,700 years ago), based on new measurements of cosmic-ray-produced beryllium and aluminium isotopes ( 10 Be and 26 Al) in a bedrock core from beneath an ice core near the GIS summit. Models indicate that when this bedrock site is ice-free, any remaining ice is concentrated in the eastern Greenland highlands and the GIS is reduced to less than ten per cent of its current volume. Our results narrow the spectrum of possible GIS histories: the longest period of stability of the present ice sheet that is consistent with the measurements is 1.1 million years, assuming that this was preceded by more than 280,000 years of ice-free conditions. Other scenarios, in which Greenland was ice-free during any or all Pleistocene interglacials, may be more realistic. Our observations are incompatible with most existing model simulations that present a continuously existing Pleistocene GIS. Future simulations of the GIS should take into account that Greenland was nearly ice-free for extended periods under Pleistocene climate forcing.

Marine diatoms in tillites along the Transantarctic Mountains (TAMs) have been used to suggest a diminished East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) during Pliocene warm periods. Updated ice-sheet modelling shows significant Pliocene EAIS retreat, creating marine embayments into the Wilkes and Aurora basins that were conducive to high diatom productivity and rapid accumulation of diatomaceous sediments. Here we show that subsequent isostatic uplift exposed accumulated unconsolidated marine deposits to wind erosion. We report new atmospheric modelling utilizing Pliocene climate and derived Antarctic landscapes indicating that prevailing mid-altitude winds transported diatoms towards the TAMs, dominantly from extensive emerged coastal deposits of the Aurora Basin. This result unifies leading ideas from competing sides of a contentious debate about the origin of the diatoms in the TAMs and their link to EAIS history, supporting the view that parts of the EAIS are vulnerable to relatively modest warming, with possible implications for future sea-level rise.

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Barrows et al. (Reports, 5 October 2007, p. 86) presented cosmogenic exposure dates and data from an ocean sediment core that challenge evidence for glacier advance in New Zealand during the Younger Dryas event. We use modeling of geomorphic processes to argue that their cosmogenic exposure dates are inconclusive.

Sedimentation filling space beneath ice shelves helps to stabilize ice sheets against grounding-line retreat in response to a rise in relative sea level of at least several meters. Recent Antarctic changes thus cannot be attributed to sea-level rise, strengthening earlier interpretations that warming has driven ice-sheet mass loss. Large sea-level rise, such as the approximately 100-meter rise at the end of the last ice age, may overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation, but smaller sea-level changes are unlikely to have synchronized the behavior of ice sheets in the past.

Future sea-level rise is an important issue related to the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with the potential to raise sea level approximately 70 meters if completely melted, dominate uncertainties in projected sea-level change. Freshwater fluxes from these ice sheets also may affect oceanic circulation, contributing to climate change. Observational and modeling advances have reduced many uncertainties related to ice-sheet behavior, but recently detected, rapid ice-marginal changes contributing to sea-level rise may indicate greater ice-sheet sensitivity to warming than previously considered.

Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic.

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.