301. Stroke prediction with an adjusted R-CHA2DS2VASc score in a cohort of patients with a Myocardial Infarction.
- Author
-
Barra S, Almeida I, Caetano F, Providência R, Paiva L, Dinis P, and Leitão Marques A
- Subjects
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Retrospective Studies, Risk Assessment methods, Risk Factors, Severity of Illness Index, Stroke pathology, Myocardial Infarction pathology, Stroke diagnosis
- Abstract
Introduction: A new risk stratification scheme incorporating the original CHADS2 score and renal function, entitled R(2)CHADS(2), was validated in the ROCKET-AF and ATRIA study cohorts., Aims: Adjusting and validating a modified R-CHA2DS2VASc score as a predictor of ischaemic stroke and all-cause mortality in patients discharged following admission for a Myocardial Infarction (MI)., Materials and Methods: Observational retrospective single-centre cohort study including 1711 patients admitted with MI and discharged alive. We tested the prognostic performance of R-CHA2DS2VASc, based on the original CHA2DS2VASc score with few modifications (addition of renal function parameters [glomerular filtration rate and urea], performance of a revascularization procedure and history of atrial fibrillation). R-CHA2DS2VASc was evaluated for its discriminative performance and calibration in the prediction of ischaemic stroke (primary endpoint), all-cause mortality and a composite endpoint of ischemic stroke plus all-cause mortality (secondary outcomes) during follow-up., Results: R-CHA2DS2VASc score's areas under the curve (AUC) for the occurrence of primary and secondary outcomes were: Ischaemic stroke: AUC 0.717 ± 0.031, p<0.001 (vs. 0.681 ± 0.043 for CHA2DS2VASc, p=0.290); all-cause mortality during follow-up: AUC 0.811 ± 0.014, p<0.001 (vs. 0.782 ± 0.019 for GRACE, p=0.245); composite endpoint: AUC 0.803 ± 0.014, p<0.001. The integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) and relative IDI for the primary endpoint were 0.015 and 28.2%, respectively, while the IDI and relative IDI for all-cause mortality were 0.13 and 72.1%, suggesting a large improvement in risk stratification. An R-CHA2DS2VASc score below 3 had a negative predictive value of 98.6% for the occurrence of ischaemic stroke., Conclusions: The modified R-CHA2DS2VASc score has shown good calibration and high discriminative performance in the prediction of post-discharge ischaemic stroke and all-cause mortality. The inclusion of renal function in thromboembolic risk predicting schemes seems warranted., (© 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF