225 results on '"Tansel, Aysit"'
Search Results
202. Output–employment relationship across employment status: evidence from Turkey.
- Author
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Şahin, Afşin, Tansel, Aysit, and Berument, M. Hakan
- Subjects
EMPLOYMENT ,ECONOMIC development ,INTERPERSONAL relations ,COINTEGRATION ,PRODUCTIVITY accounting ,UNEMPLOYMENT - Abstract
This paper investigates output–employment relationships across different employment statuses and formal versus informal employment divisions for Turkey. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships between the aggregate output with all of the formal employment statuses. A further investigation for short-run relationships reveals no statistically significant relationships between aggregate output and total employment and between aggregate output and casual employment but there is a significant short-run relationship between aggregate output and total regular employment. Thus, a sustainable economic growth policy should aim to create formal and regular employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
203. Determinants of School Attainment of Boys and Girls In Turkey
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit, primary
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- 1998
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204. INTERNATIONAL LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES BY GENDER: UNIT ROOT OR STRUCTURAL BREAKS?
- Author
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Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, Balcilar, Mehmet, and Tansel, Aysit
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LABOR supply ,LABOR market ,WOMEN employees - Abstract
ABSTRACT This paper examines the possibility of unit roots in the presence of endogenously determined multiple structural breaks in the total, female and male labour force participation rates (LFPR) for Australia, Canada and the USA. We extend the procedure of Gil-Alana for a single structural break to the case of multiple structural breaks at endogenously determined dates using the principles suggested by Bai and Perron. We use the Robinson LM test to determine the fractional order of integration. We find that endogenously determined structural breaks render the total, female and male LFPR series stationary or at best mean-reverting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
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- View/download PDF
205. Brain drain from Turkey: the case of professionals abroad.
- Author
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Güngör, Nil Demet and Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
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EMPLOYMENT in foreign countries , *EMIGRATION & immigration , *NONCITIZENS , *HIGHER education , *INTERNET surveys - Abstract
Purpose - The paper aims to present research findings on the return intentions of Turkish professionals residing abroad, where the targeted group comprises individuals working at a full-time job abroad who possess at least a tertiary level degree. Design/methodology/approach - The study uses a descriptive framework to establish the validity of several proposed models of non-return. The results are based on an internet survey of Turkish professionals conducted by the authors during the first half of 2002. A combination of internet search and referral sampling methods is used to collect the data. Correspondence analysis is used to examine the relationship between return intentions and various factors that may affect this intention. Findings - The results emphasize the importance of student non-return versus traditional brain and appear to complement the various theories of student non-return. Many Turkish professionals working abroad are non-returning post-graduate students rather than holders of higher degrees obtained in Turkey who subsequently moved. The respondents appear to come from relatively well-to-do families with highly educated parents. Many have earned their degrees from universities that have foreign language instruction. The recent economic crises in Turkey have negatively affected return intentions. It is verified that return intentions are indeed linked closely with initial return plans, and that this relationship weakens with stay duration. Specialized study and work experience in the host country also all appear to contribute to explaining the incidence of non-return. Return intentions are weaker for those working in an academic environment. Originality/value - The study is the first of its kind for Turkey and other developing countries in terms of the number of responses received and the kind of information collected. Implications are valuable for Turkish and other developing country planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2008
- Full Text
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206. Social and economic determinants of Turkish voter choice in the 1995 parliamentary election
- Author
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Akarca, Ali T. and Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
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SOCIOECONOMICS , *SOCIOLOGY , *ECONOMIC sectors , *ECONOMIC systems - Abstract
Abstract: The 1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election is utilized to study the voter behavior in Turkey. Turkish voters are found to take government''s economic performance into account but not look back beyond 1 year. A poor performance is found to benefit the extremist opposition parties at the expense of the major incumbent party. The minor incumbent and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by economic conditions. Voters also exhibit a tendency to vote against the parties holding power. The party preferences of Turkish voters depend on their socioeconomic characteristics as well. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
207. Economic performance and unemployment: evidence from an emerging economy.
- Author
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Berument, Hakan, Dogan, Nukhet, and Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
MACROECONOMICS ,UNEMPLOYMENT ,EDUCATION ,ECONOMIC indicators - Abstract
Purpose — This article seeks to examine whether or not various macroeconomic policy shocks have different effects on overall unemployment and the unemployment by different levels of education in Turkey. These effects are assessed separately for male and female unemployment Design/methodology/approach — To examine the relationship, a quarterly VAR model with a recursive order is employed to estimate the effects of real GDP, price, exchange rate and interbank interest rate on unemployment for the period from 1988:01 to 2003:04. Findings — Main findings indicate that monetary policy does not affect the total unemployment as well as the components of unemployment by educational level and by gender in Turkey. On the other hand, income policies, which include fiscal policies, and unemployment itself! might be the main factors that affect the behavior of total unemployment and its various components. Research limitations/implications — These findings suggest that policy makers should concentrate on non-monetary policies to hamper the unemployment in Turkey. Originality/value — The present study is the first empirical examination of the relationship between various macroeconomic policy shocks and the unemployment both across gender and education levels in a single study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2006
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208. Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004.
- Author
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Akarca, Ali and Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
ELECTIONS ,LOCAL elections ,REPRESENTATIVE government ,CABINET system - Abstract
The results of twenty-five Turkish elections for parliament and local administrations between 1950 and 2004 are studied. Turkish voters are found to take government's economic performance into account but not look back beyond one year. Furthermore, they are found to hold the major incumbent party responsible for both growth and inflation but minor incumbent parties, only for inflation. Also, they appear to vote strategically, especially in local and parliamentary by elections, to diffuse power. Finally, all parties exhibit a steady depreciation in their political capital while in office. These conclusions are essentially in conformity with the literature on other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2006
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209. Job satisfaction in Britain: individual and job related factors.
- Author
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Gazioglu, Saziye and Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
JOB satisfaction ,LABOR market ,JOB absenteeism ,EMPLOYEES ,SURVEYS - Abstract
Recently there has been a resurgence of interest in the analysis of job satisfaction variables. Job satisfaction is correlated with labour market behaviour such as productivity, quits and absenteeism. In this paper four different measures of job satisfaction are related to a variety of personal and job characteristics. The data used are from the 28  240 British employees in the Workplace Employee Relations Survey, 1997. This data set is larger and more recent than in any previous studies. Four measures of job satisfaction that have not previously been used are considered: satisfaction with influence over job; satisfaction with amount of pay; satisfaction with sense of achievement; and satisfaction with respect from supervisors. The paper contributes to the literature by analysing job satisfaction with respect to industrial composition and occupations. One of the striking findings is that those in the education and health sectors are less satisfied with their pay but more satisfied with their sense of achievement. Further, it is found that employees who received job training were more satisfied than those who had no training opportunities. Unlike previous studies, it is found that married individuals have lower job satisfaction levels than the unmarried. Other results confirm those in the literature, such as women being more satisfied than men, and a U-shaped relationship between satisfaction and age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
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210. The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963-1999.
- Author
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Ismihan *, Mustafa, Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim, and Tansel, Aysit
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CAPITAL investments ,BUDGET deficits ,MACROECONOMICS ,ECONOMIC development - Abstract
This study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between macroeconomic instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. Time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic macroeconomic instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses, the complementarity between public and private investment in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2005
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211. Public-Private Employment Choice, Wage Differentials, and Gender in Turkey.
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
WAGES ,EMPLOYMENT ,PRIVATE sector ,PUBLIC sector ,GOVERNMENT policy - Abstract
This article examines how individuals are selected into employment in public administration, state-owned enterprises and covered private sectors and considers the wage determination in these sectors in Turkey. Individual-level data from the 1994 Household Expenditure Survey are used to assess the sectoral differentials for men and women separately. A brief discussion of theoretical considerations appears in Section II. An overview of employment and wage-setting practices in public and private sectors in Turkey is provided in Section III. The conceptual framework and the empirical specification of the sectoral choice and wage equations are described in Section IV. Section V introduces the data used in this study. Estimation results are presented in Section VI. Section VII provides the policy implications of the results. Conclusions and suggestions for future research appear in Section VIII. One of the main findings is that when controlled for observed characteristics and sample selection, public administration wages are higher than covered private sector wages for men, except at the university level, where there is parity between public administration and the private sector.
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- 2005
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212. Determinants of school attainment of boys and girls in Turkey: individual, household and community factors
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
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SCHOOL enrollment , *PRIMARY education - Abstract
This study investigates the determinants of school attainments of boys and girls in Turkey. Although high levels of enrollments have been achieved at the primary school level for both boys and girls in much of Turkey, substantial regional differences remain. In particular, in the Southeastern region, girls begin to drop out of school around the third grade. Only half of the primary school graduates register at the middle level. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of educational attainments at the primary, middle and high school levels. Individual and household factors such as household income, parental education and occupation and a rich array of community characteristics are considered. The community characteristics considered included rural/urban location, the level of urban development, distances to regional metro centers and Istanbul and the local employment composition. Attainments of boys and girls are examined separately so as to shed light on the causes for the significantly lower level of attainment for girls. Understanding the constraints causing the large gender gap in Turkish education and the covariates related to lower overall educational levels may be useful to policy makers and planners. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2002
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
213. Educational Expenditure in the Middle East and North Africa.
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit and Kazemi, Abbas
- Subjects
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PUBLIC spending , *EDUCATIONAL finance , *SCHOOL enrollment - Abstract
Investigates equitable distribution of educational expenditures in the Middle East and in North Africa (MENA). Equity and efficiency as a gauge for the evaluation; Details on the enrollment ratio in MENA countries; Comparison on the distribution of public funds among the different educational levels.
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- 2000
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214. Cigarette demand, health scares and education in Turkey.
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Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
CIGARETTE industry ,CIGARETTES ,ELASTICITY (Economics) ,HEALTH ,TIME series analysis ,ADVERTISING ,PRICES - Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine the demand characteristics of cigarettes in Turkey. Aggregate time-series data for the 1960-88 period are used in estimation. Income and price elasticities of cigarette demand are obtained. The effect of health warning is estimated to reduce cigarette consumption by about 8% since the inception of warnings in 1982. Imports of cigarettes have been allowed since 1984 in addition to advertising of cigarettes in the non-electronic media. The effect of health warnings are found to be stronger than the opposing effect of advertising. The results also suggest that public education about adverse health effects of smoking may be more effective in reducing consumption and less regressive on consumer incomes than raising the price of cigarettes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1993
- Full Text
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215. Schooling attainment, parental education, and gender in cote d'Ivoire and Ghana.
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit
- Subjects
EDUCATION & demography - Abstract
Focuses on schooling attainment, parental education and gender in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana. Indepth look at the determinants of the demand for education in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana; Perception on the effect of distance to the nearest schools and the differential of this effect by gender; Statistical information on instrumental variable probit estimates of primary schooling, ages 16 to 36 in Cote d'Ivoire, between 1985 to 1987, and in Ghana, between 1987 to 1989.
- Published
- 1997
- Full Text
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216. Public-private sector wage gap by gender in Egypt: Evidence from quantile regression on panel data, 1998–2018.
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit, Keskin, Halil Ibrahim, and Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin
- Subjects
- *
WAGE differentials , *GENDER wage gap , *QUANTILE regression , *PANEL analysis , *LABOR market , *INCOME inequality , *CIVIL service salaries , *PRIVATE sector - Abstract
• This paper considers the public- formal private wage gap in Egypt during 1998–2018 using Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey. • We perform analysis both at the mean and along the wage distribution and address the. • Endogenous sector selection within the framework of panel data. • We find a persistent public sector wage penalty for males and mostly public sector wage premium for females. • Men select negatively while women select positively into the public sector except at the top of the wage distribution. • The results suggest concerns about the efficient provision of public services. This paper estimates the public-formal private wage gap in Egypt using Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey for the 20 year period of 1998–2018 for men and women separately. We estimate the public-formal private sector wage gap with wage equations including a public sector indicator both at the mean and at different quantiles of the conditional wage distribution using the panel feature of the data. We also address the endogenous employment and the sector of employment selection issue and find a persistent public wage penalty for the males and public wage premium for the females (except at the top) even after controlling for the observable and the time-invariant unobservable characteristics. We further examine the public wage gap over time and in different sub-samples by potential experience, skill levels and regions. Generally, the results are consistent with a decrease in the public wage gap for both men and women over the period considered. We further provide evidence on the quality of workers. We find that the public sector fails to attract better quality men throughout the conditional wage distribution while it manages to attract better quality women in the lower parts of the conditional wage distribution but not at the top, all on the basis of time-invariant unobservable attributes. These results indicate concern for the efficient provision of public services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
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217. Price and income effects in Turkish foreign trade
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit and Togan, Sübidey
- Abstract
Preis- und Einkommenswirkungen im türkischen Außenhandel. - In diesem Aufsatz werden die konventionellen Modelle der aggregierten Import- und Exportnachfrage für die Türkei geschätzt. Zu den betrachteten Fragen gehören das Problem der Gleichzeitigkeit und die Entscheidung zwischen der statischen und der dynamischen Darstellung. Bei der Schätzung der Import- und Exportmodelle werden türkische Daten aus den Jahren von 1960 bis 1983 verwendet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß die Exportpreiselastizitäten der Nachfrage erheblich größer sind als die, welche andere Forscher früher für die Türkei ermittelt hatten. Effets de prix et de revenu en commerce extérieur de la Turquie. - Les auteurs estiment les modèles conventionnels de la demande totale importatrice et exportatrice pour la Turquie. Les problèmes considérés incluent l’analyse du problème de simultanéité et le choix entre des formulations statiques et dynamiques. Les modèles de demande importatrice et exportatrice sont estimés en utilisant des données pour la période 1960-1983. Les résultats indiquent que les élasticités de prix de la demande exportatrice sont considérablement plus hautes que celles obtenues récemment par des autres investigateurs pour la Turquie. Efectos del comercio exterior turco sobre los precios y el ingreso. - En este trabajo se estiman modelos tradicionales de demanda de importaciones y exportaciones agregadas para Turquía. Se tratan los problemas de simultaneidad y de elección entre una especificación estâtica y una dinámica. Los modelos de demanda de importaciones y exportaciones son estimados a partir de datos agregados para el perfodo 1960-1983. Los resultados indican que las elasticidades precio de la demanda de exportaciones son bastante mayores que las que fueron obtenidas para Turquía por otros investigadores.
- Published
- 1987
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218. Determinants of school attainment of boys and girls in Turkey: individual, household and community factors.
- Author
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Tansel, Aysit
- Abstract
This study investigates the determinants of school attainments of boys and girls in Turkey. Although high levels of enrollments have been achieved at the primary school level for boys and girls in much of Turkey, substantial regional differences remain. In particular, in the southeastern region, girls begin to drop out of school around the third grade. Only half of the primary school graduates register at the middle level. Thus, the purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of educational attainments at the primary, middle, and high school levels. Individual and household factors, such as household income, parental education, and occupation, and a rich array of community characteristics are considered. The community characteristics considered included rural/urban location, the level of urban development, distances to regional metro centers and Istanbul, and the local employment composition. Attainments of boys and girls are examined separately so as to shed light on the causes for the significantly lower level of attainment for girls. Understanding the constraints causing the large gender gap in Turkish education and the covariates related to lower overall educational levels may be useful to policy makers and planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2003
219. Wage and labor supply effects of illness in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana: instrumental variable estimates for days disabled
- Author
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Schultz, T.Paul and Tansel, Aysit
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- 1997
- Full Text
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220. Wage employment, earnings and returns to schooling for men and women in Turkey
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Tansel, Aysit
- Published
- 1994
- Full Text
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221. Measurement of Returns to Adult Health : Morbidity Effects on Wage Rates in Côte D'Ivoire and Ghana
- Author
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Schultz, T. Paul, Tansel, Aysıt, Schultz, T. Paul, and Tansel, Aysıt
- Subjects
- Wages and labor productivity--Mathematical model, Absenteeism (Labor)--Mathematical models.--Co^, Absenteeism (Labor)--Mathematical models.--Gha, Diseases--Mathematical models.--Co^te d'Ivoire, Diseases--Mathematical models.--Ghana
- Published
- 1993
222. Three essays on education in Turkey
- Author
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Bircan, Fatma, Tansel, Aysit, and Ekonomi Ana Bilim Dalı
- Subjects
Economics ,Ekonomi - Abstract
ÖZ TÜRKİYE'DE EĞİTİM ÜZERİNE ÜÇ MAKALE Bircan, Fatma Doktora, İktisat Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Aysıt Tansel Nisan 2005, 169 sayfa Bu tez eğitimin parasal yönlerini inceleyen üç makaleden oluşmaktadır. İlk makale ailelerin özel ders harcamalarına vurgu yaparak, eğitim talebini ele almaktadır. Çalışma, ailelerin özel ders harcamalarının belirleyenlerini, Tobit modelini tahmin yöntemi olarak kullanarak araştırmaktadır. Daha varlıklı ve ebeveynlerin eğitim düzeyinin yüksek olduğu ailelerin, eğitim harcaması yapma olasılıkları daha yüksek bulunmuştur. İkinci çalışma, 1994 ve 2002 yıllan için, erkek ücretlilerin ücretlerindeki eşitsizliği irdelemektedir. Çalışma eğitim düzeyindeki arkların, ücret eşitsizliğinin önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşmıştır. Bununla birlikte, eğitimin getirişinin her okul düzeyinde 2002 yılında 1994 yılına göre azaldığı gözlenmiştir. Ücret eşitsizliğinin aynı eğitim düzeyinde de gerçekleştiği görülmüştür. 2002 yılında 1994'le karşılaştırıldığında, aynı eğitim düzeyinde, eğitimin getirişindeki arklar ücret dağılımının iki ucunda daha belirgin hale gelmiştir. Orta okul ve lise eğitiminin en az yetenek vıdüzeyindeki kişilere, yetenek dağılımının orta dilimlerinde bulunanlara göre, daha çok getirişi olduğu tesbit edilmiştir. Bu tezin son çalışması, kendi hesabına çalışma ve ücretli çalışma durumlarının belirleyenlerini ve her iki iş durumundaki kazançların belirleyenlerini ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, faaliyet dışı gelirlerin ve riskin kendi hesabına çalışmada önemli belirleyenler olduğunu tespit etmiştir. Kişilerin eğitim düzeyleri arttıkça, kendi hesabına çalışma olasılıkları azalmaktadır. Eğitim hem kendi hesabına hem de ücretli çalışanların kazançlarım artırmaktadır. Ancak, eğitimin getirişi ücretli çalışan grup için kendi hesabına çalışanlara göre daha yüksektir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Özel Ders, Ücret Eşitsizliği, Kendi Hesabına Çalışanlar, Ücretli Çalışanlar, İnsani Sermaye vıı ABSTRACT THREE ESSAYS ON EDUCATION IN TURKEY Bircan, Fatma Ph.D., Department of Economics Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Aysit Tansel April 2005, 169 pages This thesis analyzes the pecuniary aspects of education in Turkey. It consists of three essays. The first essay deals with the demand for education, focusing on private tutoring expenditures of households. The study investigates the determinants of private tutoring expenditures of households using a Tobit model as the estimation method. It is found that wealthier households with higher levels of parental education are more likely to participate in private tutoring. The second essay concerns the wage inequality in the male wages in 1994 and 2002. The study found that the differences in the educational attainment levels are a major determinant of wage inequality. However, returns to education declined at each school level from 1994 to 2002. Wage inequality is also found to exist within the same educational categories. The study shows that differences in returns to the same level of education at distinct points of wage distribution became more pronounced in 2002 compared to 1994. Secondary schooling is found to benefit the least able more compared to those positioned in the middle quantiles of ability distribution. IVThe last study in this thesis attempts to elucidate the determinants of self- employment versus wage employment choice and earnings in the two employment states. The study concludes that financial wealth and risk factor are important determinants of self-employment activity. As the educational attainment levels of individuals increase, the likelihood of becoming self-employed decrease. Education increases the earnings of bom self-employed and wage earners. However, education returns are higher for the sub-group of wage employees compared to self-employed. Key Words: Private Tutoring, Wage Inequality, Self-employment, Wage Earners, Human Capital 186
- Published
- 2005
223. Political business cycles, debt and inflation in Turkey
- Author
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Tutar, İbrahim, Tansel, Aysit, and Diğer
- Subjects
Error correction model ,Economics ,Politics ,Budget ,Fiscal policies ,Ekonomi ,Debts ,Inflation ,Budget deficits - Abstract
oz TÜRKİYE'DE POLİTİK İŞ ÇEVRİMLERİ, BORÇ VE ENFLASYON Tutar, İbrahim Doktora, Ekonomi Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Aysıt Tansel Temmuz 2001, 229 sayfa Bu tez Türkiye'nin uzunca bir süredir gündeminde olan makro-ekonomik sorunlarına ışık tutmaya çalışmaktadır. Ele alınan konular bütçe-siyaset ilişkisi, borçların sürdürülebilirliği ve enflasyondur. İlk konu, politik iş çevrimlerinin ve siyasi güç dağılımının mali politikalar üzerindeki etkileridir. Bu amaçla, yıllık, üçaylık ve aylık veriler kullanılmaktadır. Yıllık veriler seçimlerin ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini gizliyor olsa da, üç aylık ve aylık veriler politik iş çevrimlerinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Dahası, üçaylık veriler siyasi güç dağılımının bütçeden yapılan transfer harcamalarını artırdığını göstermektedir. Bu araştırmanın en önemli bulgusu, istikrar için bazı mali ve ekonomik karar alıcı otoriteyi birleştirmek gerektiğidir. Ele alınan ikinci konu ise bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliğidir. Araştırma 1960-1999 arasındaki verilere dayandırılmaktadır. Borçların ve bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği için iki yaklaşım kullanılmıştır. Bunlar, şimdiki değer kısıtı yaklaşımı ve Bohn'un yaklaşımıdır. Birinci yaklaşımın sonuçları çeşitlidir. Bohn'un doğrusal yaklaşımı ise Türkiye'nin 1980-1999 arasındaki malipolitikalarının sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak, kübik fonksiyonla yapılan analiz, sonucu değiştirmektedir. Üçüncü konu ise, ataletten ve fiyat sarmalından kaynaklanan enflasyon hipoteziyle parasalcı yaklaşımı test etmektedir. Bu amaçla önce sabit döviz kuru ile çıpalama politikasının ve ücret indekslemesinin teorik etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmada, 1988-1999 dönemi üçaylık verileri kullanılmıştır. HEGY, ADF ve Phillips-Perron testleri ataletin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Kısaltılmış VECM denklemi parasal büyüklüğün ve reel ücretlerin kısa dönemde de enflasyonu artırdığını fakat reel döviz kurundaki artışların ise azalttığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuç, teorinin tamamen tersinedir. O halde, dövizin tasarruf ve spekülasyon aracı olarak kullanıldığı ülkelerde döviz kurlarını sabitleyerek enflasyonu indirmeye çalışmak daha büyük bir krizle sonuçlanabilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Politik İş Çevrimleri, Bütçe, Sürdürülebilirlik, Kamu Borçları, Atalet Enflasyonu, Çıpalama Politikaları, Hata Düzeltme Modeli. vı ABSTRACT POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES, DEBT AND INFLATION IN TURKEY Tutar, Ibrahim Ph.D., Department of Economics Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Aysit Tansel July 2001, 229 pages This thesis sheds light on the main macro-economic issues of Turkish economy, which have been on the agenda for a long time. These issues are political business cycles, sustainability of debt and inflation in Turkey. First issue is the political business cycles and effects of political power dispersion on the fiscal policies. The analyses only with quarterly and monthly data reveal the existence of political business cycles. Quarterly data indicates that the political power dispersion increases the transfer expenditures of the government budget. The most important finding of the research is that a unified fiscal authority might increase the effectiveness of the fiscal policies. The second issue is the sustainability of the Turkish budgetary position. The research is based on the data for the period 1960-1999. Two main approaches are considered. The conclusion of the first approach (present value constraint) is mixed. The second (Bohn's) approach shows that the fiscal stance was on a sustainable path. However, the analysis with a cubic equation shows that the conclusion is not that certain. iiiThe third topic is the test of the vicious circle hypotheses and monetarist approach to the inflation. Quarterly data of the period 1988-1999 has been used. HEGY, ADF and Phillips-Perron tests show the existence of inertial inflation. The ECM gives significant coefficients for the vicious circle hypothesis and monetarist approach. The parsimoniuos ECM shows that the excess money supply, and real wage rate have positive effects on the inflation while real exchange rate depreciation has decreasing effects on it. This is contradictory to the theory. Therefore, if foreign currencies are used for speculation and savings purposes, then disinflation fixing exchange rates might be more destabilizing. Keywords: Political Business Cycles, Budget, Sustainability, Public Debt, Inertial Inflation, Anchoring Policies, Error Correction Mechanism. IV 229
- Published
- 2001
224. The Wagner's Law time series edivence for Turkey, 1960-1998
- Author
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Taşseven, Özlem, Tansel, Aysit, and Diğer
- Subjects
Time series ,Public expenditures ,Economics ,Gross national product ,Wagner's Law ,Price ,Ekonomi - Abstract
öz WAGNER YASASI TÜRKİYE İÇİN ZAMAN SERİSİ ÖRNEĞİ Taşseven, özlem Yüksek Lisans, İktisat Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Aysit Tansel Temmuz 2000, 86 pages Bu tez Wagner yasasının geçerliliğini 1960-1998 yılları arasındaki Türkiye'nin zaman serisi verilerini kullanılarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu yasa ile kamu harcamaları ve gayri safı milli hasıla arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ele alınmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizinde gayri safi milli hasıla, kamu/özel göreli fiyatları, nüfus ve istikrar endeksi açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak kullanılmıştır. Sosyo-politik olayların ve finansal krizlerin etkisini incelemek üzere üç tane kukla değişken kullanılmıştır. Johansen çok değişkenli eşbütünleşme analiz sonuçları, sistemde iki önemli eşbütünleşen vektörün varlığını önermektedir. Vektörler kamu harcamaları ve kamu/özel göreli fiyatlarını açıklamak için kullanılmıştır. Birinci vektör, Wagner yasasının geçerliliğini ve kamu harcamalarının göreli fiyatlardan pozitif olarak etkilendiğini önermektedir. İstikrar endeksininkamu harcamaları üzerindeki etkisinin önemsiz olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Zayıf dışsallık test sonuçları, uzun dönem ilişki parametreleri için kamu harcamaları, kamu/özel göreli fiyatları ve istikrar endeksinin zayıf dışsallığını reddetmektedir. Göreli fiyatlar eşitliğinde göreli fiyatların, kamu harcamaları, gayri safi milli hasıla, nüfus ve istikrar endeksinden pozitif olarak etkilendiği bulunmuştur. Kamu harcamaları için kısa dönem modellemesi yapılmıştır. Kısa dönem modelinde gayri safi milli hasılanın ikinci gecikmesi ve hata düzeltme terimleri önemli bulunmuştur. Aynı açıklayıcı değişkenler kullanılarak eşbütünleşme analizi kamu cari, yatırım ve transfer harcamaları için ayrı ayrı ele alınmıştır. Araştırması yapılan sözkonusu dönemde Türkiye verileri için Wagner yasasının geçerliliği bütün eşbütünleşme analizlerinde kabul edilmiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Kamu Harcamaları, Kamu/Özel Göreli Fiyatı, Gayri Safi Milli Hasıla, Nüfus, İstikrar, Türkiye Ekonomisi vı Abstract THE WAGNER'S LAW: TIME SERIES EVIDENCE FOR TURKEY, 1960-1 998 Taşseven, Özlem MS., Department of Economics Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Aysit Tansel July 2000, 86 pages This thesis investigates the validity of Wagner's law, that is, the long run relationship between government expenditures and gross national product using time series data of Turkey during 1960-1998 period. Cointegration analysis is undertaken taking population, gross national product, relative prices of public versus private sectors, stability index as explanatory variables. Three dummy variables are used to observe the effects of socio-political events and financial crises. The results of Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis suggests the existence of two significant cointegrating vectors in the system. The vectors are used to explain government expenditures and relative prices of public versus private sectors respectively. The first cointegration vector suggests the validity of Wagner's law and*also that government expenditures are positively affected by relative IIIprices. The effect of the stability index on government expenditures is found to be negligible. The weak exogeneity test results suggest the rejection of the weak exogeneity of government expenditures, relative prices and the stability index for the parameters of the corresponding long run equations. In relative prices equation, it is found that government expenditures, gross national product, population and stability index affect relative prices positively. Short-run modelling is constructed for government expenditures. Second lag of gross national product and error correction terms are found to be significant. Cointegration analysis is undertaken for government current, investment and transfer expenditures separately taking the same explanatory variables. Wagner's law is validated for each component of the government expenditures. Key Words: Government Expenditures, Relative Prices of Public versus Private Sectors, Gross National Product, Population, Stability, Wagner's Law, Turkish Economy IV 1C YÜKSEKÖ?RETİM KOWhi DOKÛMAfTftSYOrt MEJUGE2İ 86
- Published
- 2000
225. Socio-economic determinants of fertility in Turkey: A provinicial approach in 1990
- Author
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Kargi, Nurdan, Tansel, Aysit, and Ekonomi Ana Bilim Dalı
- Subjects
Fertility ,Socio-economic developments ,Economic effect ,Demografi ,Economics ,Population growth ,Least squares method ,Ekonomi ,Demography - Abstract
oz TÜRKİYE'DE DOĞURGANLIK HIZINI BELİRLEYEN FAKTÖRLERİN İLSEL ANALİZİ, 1990 Kargı, Nurdan M. S., Ekonomi Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi : Aysit Tansel Ocak 1999, 127 sayfa Bu tezin amacı, ilsel veri kullanarak Türkiye için ortalama kadın basma düşen canlı doğmuş çocuk sayısının bazı sosyal ve ekonomik değişkenlerle ilişkisini göstermektir. Sosyal ve ekonomik değişkenler şunlardır, ilsel Brüt Yurtiçi Hasıla, kadının ve erkeğin eğitim düzeyleri, kadının işgücüne katılımı, kentleşme oranı ve endüstrileşme oranıdır. Seçilen sosyal ve ekonomik değişkenlerle canlı doğan çocuk sayısı arasında önemli derecede ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu çalışma ayrıca bölgesel doğurganlık farklılığı olgusunu, farklı sosyal ve ekonomik değişkenlerin kullanıldığı modeller aracılığı ile kanıtlamıştır. Anahtar kelimeler: Doğurganlık Oranı, Nüfus Artışı, Sosyo-ekonomik Gelişim Değişkenleri, En Küçük Kareler Tahmin Metodu. iv ABSTRACT SOCIO-ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN TURKEY A PROVINCIAL APPROACH IN 1990 Kargı, Nurdan M.S., Department of Economics Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Aysit Tansel January 1999, 127 pages The aim of this thesis to relate the average number of children ever born per women for Turkey using provincial data in the year 1990, to some economic and social variables such as; provincial Gross Domestic Product (GDP), women's and men's levels of education, the labor force participation of women in two sectors, urbanisation and industrialisation rate. All selected socio-economic variables are found to be significant in determining the fertility rate. This study also found that by using models, which include different socio-economic variables, there are regional differences in the fertility rate in Turkey. Keywords: Fertility Rate, Population Growth, Socio-economic Development Variables, Ordinary Least Squares Estimation Method. in 127
- Published
- 1999
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