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Untangling the spatial and temporal processes that influence population dynamics of migratory species is challenging, because changes in abundance are shaped by variation in vital rates across heterogeneous habitats and throughout the annual cycle. We developed a full-annual-cycle, integrated, population model and used demographic data collected between 2011 and 2014 in southern Indiana and Belize to estimate stage-specific vital rates of a declining migratory songbird, the Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina). Our primary objective was to understand how spatial and temporal variation in demography contributes to local and regional population growth. Our full-annual-cycle model allowed us to estimate (1) age-specific, seasonal survival probabilities, including latent survival during both spring and autumn migration, and (2) how the relative contribution of vital rates to population growth differed among habitats. Wood Thrushes in our study populations experienced the lowest apparent survival rates during migration and apparent survival was lower during spring migration than during fall migration. Both mortality and high dispersal likely contributed to low apparent survival during spring migration. Population growth in high-quality habitat was most sensitive to variation in fecundity and apparent survival of juveniles during spring migration, whereas population growth in low-quality sites was most sensitive to adult apparent breeding-season survival. These results elucidate how full-annual-cycle vital rates, particularly apparent survival during migration, interact with spatial variation in habitat quality to influence population dynamics in migratory species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies of sexual selection assume that individuals have equal mating opportunities and that differences in mating success result from variation in sexual traits. However, the inability of sexual traits to explain variation in male mating success suggests that other factors moderate the strength of sexual selection. Extrapair paternity is common in vertebrates and can contribute to variation in mating success and thus serves as a model for understanding the operation of sexual selection. We developed a spatially explicit, multifactor model of all possible female-male pairings to test the hypothesis that ecological (food availability) and social (breeding density, breeding distance, and the social mate's nest stage) factors influence an individual's opportunity for extrapair paternity in a socially monogamous bird, the black-throated blue warbler, Setophaga caerulescens. A male's probability of siring extrapair young decreased with increasing distance to females, breeding density, and food availability. Males on food-poor territories were more likely to sire extrapair young, and these offspring were produced farther from the male's territory relative to males on food-abundant territories. Moreover, males sired extrapair young mostly during their socialmates' incubation stage, especially males on food-abundant territories. This study demonstrates how ecological and social conditions constrain the spatial and temporal opportunities for extrapair paternity that affect variation inmating success and the strength of sexual selection in socially monogamous species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Orange-crowned warblers, Leiothlypis celata sordida , breeding on the California Channel Islands exhibit remarkable variation in their nest structure and placement, providing an intriguing exception to the general pattern that avian nest structure and nest site selection are highly conserved characters. We examined nest construction at both the population and individual scale to test whether warblers on Santa Catalina Island change their nest construction in response to nest height. At the population level, warblers built both lighter, grass-dominated ground nests and heavier off-ground nests that contained more rigid materials and less grass. The probability of nest success was significantly and positively correlated with nest height. At the individual level, we found the same individuals were capable of building on- and off-ground nests between nesting attempts within the same season. However, nest construction was highly variable among individuals and not significantly correlated with nest success after controlling for nest height. We suggest this observed behavioural plasticity in nest construction and nest height is a hierarchical response to the absence of avian predators. Reduced risk from avian predators appears to allow the warblers to use a variety of nest sites, thereby necessitating increased flexibility in nest construction. • Santa Catalina Island orange-crowned warblers varied in nest construction behaviour. • Off-ground nests were heavier and contained more twigs than ground nests. • Individual females built nests of different materials at different heights. • Nest height, rather than nest construction, was associated with nest success. • Plasticity in nesting behaviour may allow warblers to use a range of nest sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the reproductive ecology of the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which is endemic to Santa Cruz Island, California, and is a species of conservation concern. We documented daily nest survival, probability of renesting, annual fledging success, and breeding behavior, and determined how these factors varied in relation to the habitat characteristics of the jays' home ranges. Clutch sizes, feeding rates, and nest attendance were not correlated with chaparral cover or with home-range size. In contrast, nest predation, which accounted for 92% of documented nest failures, was less likely at nests that were more concealed, at nests of breeding pairs with home ranges that were smaller and had a greater proportion of taller vegetation, and at nests that were initiated earlier in the breeding season. Researchers' activity near nests increased the likelihood of predation, although the effect diminished with a nest's age. Despite relatively low nest survival, the high frequency of renesting allowed pairs to fledge an average of 1.1 ± 0.1 young per year, or 1.8 ± 0.2 young after the effects of the observer were accounted for. Currently, chaparral habitats on Santa Cruz Island are regenerating following the removal of exotic herbivores. This regeneration could in turn increase and improve breeding habitat for this island endemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migratory connectivity for small migratory passerines has been quantified primarily with stable hydrogen isotopes in feathers (δ2HF) because, until recently, we lacked the technology to track small organisms over long distances. Direct tracking of small passerines throughout the annual cycle is now possible with archival light-level geolocators. Our objective was to evaluate whether 62HF and geolocators produce similar breeding-origin assignments for the same individual birds sampled during the non-breeding season. We estimated breeding origin with geolocators and δ2HF and validated those estimates using a population of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) from a known breeding location at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. We also deployed geolocators on Ovenbirds in Jamaica and Florida during March 2010-2011. We performed stable hydrogen isotope analysis on feathers of birds whose geolocators we recovered (Jamaica: n = 9; Florida: n = 3). Probabilistic assignments of δ2HF that accounted for regional variation in feather-isotope discrimination predicted breeding origins that agreed with kernel density estimates of origin derived from geolocators. By contrast, assignments of δ2HF using the common assumption of a consistent feather-isotope discrimination across space predicted breeding origins that overlapped minimally with those from geolocators. Finally, Bayesian analyses that incorporated prior information of Ovenbird abundance across the breeding range yielded more accurate assignments for both site-independent and site-specific discrimination factors. Our findings suggest that creating. more detailed feather isoscapes by increasing the number of validation locations and sampling underrepresented portions of species distributions could increase the accuracy of geographic assignments using δ2HF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rufous-crowned Sparrow (Aimophila ruficeps) is a nonmigratory passerine that displays an area-sensitive distribution pattern of abundance in fragmented coastal sage-scrub habitat of southern California. To determine if habitat fragmentation negatively affected adult survival we used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to compare annual survival probabilities of adult sparrows breeding in habitat adjacent to urban-developed edges to those of birds breeding in the interior of large habitat expanses in San Diego County, 1997-2000. During that period, an El Niño event brought heavy rainfall to the study area, and a La Niña event brought dought. Annual survival probabilities were relatively high for a small passerine (females: 0.69 ± 0.05 SE; males: 0.74 ± 0.04 SE) but, given our data, did not differ between habitat types or with rainfall. Annual resighting probabilities for the birds were strongly associated with variation in rainfall, being high in the wet year and low in the dry year. Mate- and site-fidelity were apparently high, and surveys during the nonbreeding season documented that the sparrows stayed paired and on territories year-round. We hypothesize that the high apparent survivor-ship of this species is related to its nonmigratory habit and its tendency to curtail reproductive effort during periods of food scarcity. Although our survivorship analysis suggests that the urban-wildland interface does not adversely affect survival of territorial Rufous-crowned Sparrows, our power to detect an effect of habitat edge on survival was low. Thus, we urge carrion in concluding that edge effects do not have an ecologically important influence on survival rates in this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) tops many lists of species of conservation concern because of severe population declines and habitat loss. Here we present the first robust estimates of annual survival and population growth rates for this species. We used capture-mark-recapture models to estimate survival of adult male Cerulean Warblers in an eastern Ontario population that has been studied since 1994. Adult male survival probability (φ) was constant over time in our best-supported model. Our second-best-supported model indicated a negative effect of a 1998 ice storm on survival. The third-best-supported model indicated a significant year effect on survival. On the basis of those results and previously published estimates of annual fecundity, we calculated a population growth rate using a two-stage Leslie matrix. Population growth rate (λ) was 0.73, using the estimate for constant survival. Model elasticities imply that adult mortality had a stronger effect on λ than did seasonal fecundity. Oversummer survival estimates suggest that events during migration or on wintering grounds are responsible for most adult male mortality. It appears that our study population, thought to be one of the healthiest known for this species, may not be currently reproducing at a high enough rate to accommodate adult mortality. However, caution must be used when interpreting those results, given the possibility of underestimating survival and fecundity of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In socially monogamous species, male reproductive success consists of "within‐pair" offspring produced with their socially paired mate(s), and "extra‐pair" offspring produced with additional females throughout the population. Both reproductive pathways offer distinct opportunities for selection in wild populations, as each is composed of separate components of mate attraction, female fecundity, and paternity allocation. Identifying key sources of variance and covariance among these components is a crucial step toward understanding the reproductive strategies that males use to maximize fitness both annually and over their lifetimes. We use 16 years of complete reproductive data from a population of black‐throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) to partition variance in male annual and lifetime reproductive success, and thereby identify if the opportunity for selection varies over the lifetimes of individual males and what reproductive strategies likely favor maximum lifetime fitness. The majority of variance in male reproduction was attributable to within‐pair success, but the specific effects of individual components of variance differed between total annual and total lifetime reproductive success. Positive overall lifetime covariance between within‐pair and extra‐pair components indicates that males able to maximize within‐pair success, particularly with double‐brooding females, likely achieve higher overall lifetime fitness via both within‐pair and extra‐pair reproductive pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Seed dispersal by birds is central to the passive restoration of many tree communities. Reintroduction of extinct seed dispersers can therefore restore degraded forests and woodlands. To test this, we constructed a spatially explicit simulation model, parameterized with field data, to consider the effect of different seed dispersal scenarios on the extent of oak populations. We applied the model to two islands in California's Channel Islands National Park (USA), one of which has lost a key seed disperser. We used an ensemble modelling approach to simulate island scrub oak (Quercus pacifica) demography. The model was developed and trained to recreate known population changes over a 20‐year period on 250‐km2 Santa Cruz Island, and incorporated acorn dispersal by island scrub‐jays (Aphelocoma insularis), deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and gravity, as well as seed predation. We applied the trained model to 215‐km2 Santa Rosa Island to examine how reintroducing island scrub‐jays would affect the rate and pattern of oak population expansion. Oak habitat on Santa Rosa Island has been greatly reduced from its historical extent due to past grazing by introduced ungulates, the last of which were removed by 2011. Our simulation model predicts that a seed dispersal scenario including island scrub‐jays would increase the extent of the island scrub oak population on Santa Rosa Island by 281% over 100 years, and by 544% over 200 years. Scenarios without jays would result in little expansion. Simulated long‐distance seed dispersal by jays also facilitates establishment of discontinuous patches of oaks, and increases their elevational distribution. Synthesis and applications. Scenario planning provides powerful decision support for conservation managers. We used ensemble modelling of plant demographic and seed dispersal processes to investigate whether the reintroduction of seed dispersers could provide cost‐effective means of achieving broader ecosystem restoration goals on California's second‐largest island. The simulation model, extensively parameterized with field data, suggests that re‐establishing the mutualism with seed‐hoarding jays would accelerate the expansion of island scrub oak, which could benefit myriad species of conservation concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how human activities have influenced the foraging ecology of wildlife is important as our planet faces ongoing and impending habitat and climatic change. We review the canine surrogacy approach (CSA)—a tool for comparing human, dog, and other canid diets in the past—and apply CSA to investigate possible ancient human resource provisioning in an endangered canid, the California Channel Islands fox ( Urocyon littoralis ). We conducted stable isotope analysis of bone collagen samples from ancient and modern island foxes ( n = 214) and mainland gray foxes ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus , n = 24). We compare these data to isotope values of ancient humans and dogs, and synthesize 29 Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates that fine-tune the chronology of island foxes. AMS dates confirm that island foxes likely arrived during the early Holocene (>7300 cal BP) on the northern islands in the archipelago and during the middle Holocene (>5500 cal BP) on the southern islands. We found no evidence that island foxes were consistently using anthropogenic resources (e.g., food obtained by scavenging around human habitation sites or direct provisioning by Native Americans), except for a few individuals on San Nicolas Island and possibly on San Clemente and Santa Rosa islands. Decreases in U . littoralis carbon and nitrogen isotope values between prehistoric times and the 19th century on San Nicolas Island suggest that changes in human land use from Native American hunter-gatherer occupations to historical ranching had a strong influence on fox diet. Island foxes exhibit considerable dietary variation through time and between islands and have adapted to a wide variety of climatic and cultural changes over the last 7300 years. This generalist foraging strategy suggests that endemic island foxes may be resilient to future changes in resource availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the processes that limit populations is a foundational objective of ecology and an urgent need for conservation. For migratory animals, researchers must study individuals throughout their annual cycles to determine how environmental conditions limit demographic rates within each period of the annual cycle and also between periods through carry-over effects and seasonal interactions. 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 Our poor understanding of the rates and causes of avian migration mortality 7 hinders the identification of limiting factors and the reversal of widespread avian population declines. 8 , 9 Here, we implement new methods to estimate apparent survival (hereafter survival) during migration directly from automated telemetry data 10 in Kirtland's Warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii) and indirectly from mark-recapture data in Black-throated Blue Warblers (S. caerulescens). Previous experimental and observational studies of our focal species and other migratory songbirds have shown strong effects of Caribbean precipitation and habitat quality on food availability, 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 body condition, 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 migration timing, 11 , 12 , 15 , 16 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 natal dispersal, 24 , 25 range dynamics, 26 reproductive success, 20 , 22 , 27 and annual survival. 18 , 19 , 20 , 23 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 Building on this research, we test the hypotheses that environmental conditions during the non-breeding period affect subsequent survival during spring migration and breeding. We found that reduced precipitation and environmental productivity in the non-breeding period strongly influenced survival in both species, primarily by reducing survival during spring migration. Our results indicate that climate-driven environmental conditions can carry over to affect survival in subsequent periods and thus likely play an important role in year-round population dynamics. These lethal carry-over effects may be widespread and are likely magnified by intensifying climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Changes in leaf phenology from warming spring and autumn temperatures have lengthened the temperate zone growing "green" season and breeding window for migratory birds in North America. However, the fitness benefits of an extended breeding season will depend, in part, on whether species have sufficient dietary flexibility to accommodate seasonal changes in prey availability. We used fecal DNA metabarcoding to test the hypothesis that seasonal changes in the diets of the insectivorous, migratory black-throated blue warbler ( Setophaga caerulescens ) track changes in the availability of arthropod prey at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We examined changes across the breeding season and along an elevation gradient encompassing a 2-week difference in green season length. From 98 fecal samples, we identified 395 taxa from 17 arthropod orders; 242 were identified to species, with Cecrita guttivitta (saddled prominent moth), Theridion frondeum (eastern long-legged cobweaver), and Philodromus rufus (white-striped running crab spider) occurring at the highest frequency. We found significant differences in diet composition between survey periods and weak differences among elevation zones. Variance in diet composition was highest late in the season, and diet richness and diversity were highest early in the season. Diet composition was associated with changes in prey availability surveyed over the green season. However, several taxa occurred in diets more or less than expected relative to their frequency of occurrence from survey data, suggesting that prey selection or avoidance sometimes accompanies opportunistic foraging. This study demonstrates that black-throated blue warblers exhibit diet flexibility and track seasonal changes in prey availability, which has implications for migratory bird responses to climate-induced changes in insect communities with longer green seasons., Competing Interests: The authors declare we have no competing interests., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Historical ecology provides information needed to understand contemporary conditions and make science-based resource management decisions. Gaps in historical records, however, can limit inquiries and inference. Unfortunately, the patchiness of data that poses challenges for today's historical ecologist may be similarly problematic for those in the future seeking to understand what are currently present-day conditions and trends, in part because of societal underinvestment in systematic collection and curation. We therefore highlight the generational imperative that contemporary scientists and managers individually have - especially in this era of tremendous global change - to ensure sufficient documentation of the past and current conditions of the places and resources to which they have access., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland's warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to analyze two mark-recapture datasets: 2006-2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003-2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland's warbler and other Neotropical-Nearctic migratory bird species.

Corvids (crows, jays, magpies and nutcrackers) are important dispersers of large-seeded plants. Studies on captive or supplemented birds suggest that they flexibly adjust their scatter-hoarding behaviour to the context of social dynamics and relative seed availability. Because many corvid-dispersed trees show high annual variation in seed production, context-dependent foraging can have strong effects on natural corvid scatter-hoarding behaviour. We investigated how seed availability and social dynamics affected scatter-hoarding in the island scrub jays (Aphelocoma insularis). We quantified rates of scatter-hoarding behaviour and territorial defence of 26 colour-marked birds over a three-year period with variable acorn crops. We tested whether caching parameters were correlated with variation in annual seed production of oaks as predicted by the predator dispersal hypothesis, which states that caching rates and distances should vary with seed abundance in ways that benefit tree fitness. We also tested whether antagonistic interactions with conspecifics would affect scatter-hoarding adversely, as found in experimental studies. Caching behaviour varied with acorn availability. Caching distances correlated positively with annual acorn crop size, increasing by as much as 40% between years. Caching rates declined over time in years with small acorn crops, but increased when crops were large. Acorn foraging and caching rates were also negatively correlated with rates of territorial aggression. Overall foraging rates, however, were not associated with aggression, suggesting that reduced dispersal rates were not simply due to time constraints. Our field results support laboratory findings that caching rates and distances by scatter-hoarding corvids are context-dependent. Furthermore, our results are consistent with predictions of the predator dispersal hypothesis and suggest that large seed crops and social interactions among scatter-hoarders affect dispersal benefits for oaks and other masting tree species., (© 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.)

Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability-male survival and recruitment-vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin (Pipra filicauda). Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest., (© 2016 The Author(s).)

Transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) on mainland California poses an ongoing threat to the island scrub-jay (ISSJ, Aphelocoma insularis), a species that occurs only on Santa Cruz Island, California, and whose total population numbers <5000. Our report describes the surveillance and management efforts conducted since 2006 that are designed to understand and mitigate for the consequences of WNV introduction into the ISSJ population. We suspect that WNV would most likely be introduced to the island via the movement of infected birds from the mainland. However, antibody testing of >750 migrating and resident birds on the island from 2006 to 2009 indicated that WNV had not become established by the end of 2009. Several species of competent mosquito vectors were collected at very low abundance on the island, including the important mainland vectors Culex tarsalis and Culex quinquefasciatus. However, the island was generally cooler than areas of mainland California that experienced intense WNV transmission, and these lower temperatures may have reduced the likelihood of WNV becoming established because they do not support efficient virus replication in mosquitoes. A vaccination program was initiated in 2008 to create a rescue population of ISSJ that would be more likely to survive a catastrophic outbreak. To further that goal, we recommend managers vaccinate >100 ISSJ each year as part of ongoing research and monitoring efforts.

The mechanisms regulating bird populations are poorly understood and controversial. We provide evidence that a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), is regulated by multiple density-dependence mechanisms in its breeding quarters. Evidence of regulation includes: stability in population density during 1969-2002, strong density dependence in time-series analyses of this period, an inverse relationship between warbler density and annual fecundity, and a positive relationship between annual fecundity and recruitment of yearlings in the subsequent breeding season. Tests of the mechanisms causing regulation were carried out within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, during 1997-1999. When individuals from abutting territories were experimentally removed in a homogeneous patch of high-quality habitat, the fecundity of focal pairs nearly doubled, revealing a locally operating crowding mechanism. A site-dependence mechanism was indicated by an inverse relationship between population size and mean territory quality, as well as by greater annual fecundity on the sites that were most frequently occupied and of highest quality. These site-dependence relationships were revealed by intensive monitoring of territory quality and demography at the landscape spatial scale. Crowding and site-dependence mechanisms, therefore, acted simultaneously but at different spatial scales to regulate local abundance of this migratory bird population.