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QC 20140915

We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a 'safe operating space' for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries., AuthorCount:4

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of similar to 1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 degrees C global warming, would spur slow feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 degrees C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels., AuthorCount:18

Agricultural water management (AWM) has been shown to improve and secure yields in the tropics and has been suggested as an important way to combat poverty in the region. In this paper, we describe potential impacts on upstream and downstream flows of extensive AWM interventions, using the watershed development programme of the Osman Sagar catchment of Musi sub-basin, Andhra Pradesh semi-arid India, as an example. Various AWM interventions are compared with a non-intervention state and the current state of the study area, using 31 years of data by application of the calibrated and validated ARCSWAT 2005 (Version 2.1.4a) modelling tool. Different AWM interventions contribute to improved livelihoods of upstream smallholder farmers by increasing soil moisture availability and groundwater recharge, which can subsequently be used for irrigation. The result is higher crop production and hence larger incomes. Moreover, lower flow intensities and sediment losses reduced by 30-50%, reducing the risk of flooding and sediment accumulation in the Osman Sagar drinking water reservoir. On the other hand, AWM interventions are predicted to result in reduced total water inflows to the Osman Sagar reservoir from 11% of the total annual rainfall (754mm) recorded at present, to 8% if AWM interventions were implemented at large scale throughout the catchment. A cost-benefit analysis of AWM interventions showed that the highest net economic returns were achieved at intermediate intervention levels (only in-situ AWM)., AuthorCount:5;Funding Agency:SIDA grant; FORMAS Exec.; Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines RETA 5812, RETA 6067

The paper describes a hydrological model for agricultural water intervention in a community watershed at Kothapally in India, developed through integrated management and a consortium approach. The impacts of various soil and water management interventions in the watershed are compared to no‐intervention during a 30‐year simulation period by application of the calibrated and validated ARCSWAT 2005 (Version 2.1.4a) modelling tool. Kothapally receives, on average, 800 mm rainfall in the monsoon period. 72% of total rainfall is converted as evaporation and transpiration (ET), 20% is stored by groundwater aquifer, and 8% exported as outflow from the watershed boundary in current water interventions. ET, groundwater recharge and outflow under no‐intervention conditions are found to be 64, 9, and 19%, respectively. Check dams helped in storing water for groundwater recharge, which can be used for irrigation, as well minimising soil loss. In situ water management practices improved the infiltration capacity and water holding capacity of the soil, which resulted in increased water availability by 10–30% and better crop yields compared to no‐intervention. Water outflows from the developed watershed were more than halved compared to no‐intervention, indicating potentially large negative downstream impacts if these systems were to be implemented on a larger scale. On the other hand, in the watershed development program, sediment loads to the streams were less than one‐tenth. It can be concluded that the hydrological impacts of large‐scale implementation of agricultural water interventions are significant. They result in improved rain‐fed agriculture and improved productivity and livelihood of farmers in upland areas while also addressing the issues of poverty, equity, and gender in watersheds. There is a need for case‐specific studies of such hydrological impacts along with other impacts in terms of equity, gender, sustainability, and development at the mesoscale.

The Maresha, the traditional Ethiopian plow, requires repeated cross-plowing which causes increased surface runoff, less infiltration and hence lower water availability to crops. The main reasons for increased surface runoff and reduced infiltration are plowing along the slope and the formation of a plow pan at shallow depths. Conservation tillage is seen as a way to alleviate these problems. The widely advocated zero-tillage, however, is not feasible for smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions of Ethiopia because of difficulties in maintaining adequate soil cover, the practice of communal grazing, and high costs of herbicides. Strip tillage systems, on the other hand, may offer a solution. This study was initiated to test strip tillage systems and to evaluate the impacts of new tillage systems on the water balance and grain yields of maize. Experiments have been conducted in a semi-arid area called Melkawoba in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia during 2003–2005. Strip tillage systems involved cultivation along planting lines at a spacing of 0.75 m using the Maresha plow followed by subsoiling along the same lines (STS) or without subsoiling (ST). Results have been compared with traditional tillage involving 3–4 overpasses with the Maresha plow (CONV). Soil moisture has been monitored to a depth of 1.8 m using a Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) while surface runoff has been measured using a specially designed rectangular trough installed at the bottom of each plot. STS resulted in the least surface runoff (Qs = 18 mm season−1) and the highest grain yields (Y = 2130 kg ha−1) followed by ST (Qs = 26 mm season−1, Y = 1840 kg ha−1) and CONV (Qs = 43 mm season−1, Y = 1720 kg ha−1) provided sowing was carried out within a week after subsoiling. Thus, STS resulted in the highest water productivity, WP = 0.60 kg m−3, followed by ST (WP = 0.52 kg m−3) and CONV (WP = 0.48 kg m−3). The main conclusion of the paper is that even in dry areas reasonable yields can be obtained p

This paper analyses the potential conflict between resilience of the Earth system and global freshwater requirements for the dual task of carbon sequestration to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere, and food production to feed humanity by 2050. It makes an attempt to assess the order of magnitude of the increased consumptive water use involved and analyses the implications as seen from two parallel perspectives; the global perspective of human development within a safe operating space with regard to the definition of the Planetary Boundary for freshwater; and the social-ecological implications at the regional river basin scale in terms of sharpening water shortages and threats to aquatic ecosystems. The paper shows that the consumptive water use involved in the dual task would both transgress the proposed planetary boundary range for global consumptive freshwater use and would further exacerbate already severe river depletion, causing societal problems related to water shortage and water allocation. Thus, strategies to rely on sequestration of CO2 as a mitigation strategy must recognize the high freshwater costs involved, implying that the key climate mitigation strategy must be to reduce emissions. The paper finally highlights the need to analyze both water and carbon tradeoffs from anticipated large scale biofuel production climate change mitigation strategy, to reveal gains and impact of this in contrast to carbon sequestration strategies.

First edition, Den stora förnekelsen, published 2011 by Medströms förlag, Stockholm.

This paper reports the experience of a regional network of academic departments involved in water education that started as a project and evolved, over a period of 12 yr, into an independent network organisation. The paper pursues three objectives. First, it argues that it makes good sense to organise postgraduate education and research on water resources on a regional scale and presents the WaterNet experience as an example that a regional approach can work. Second, it presents preliminary findings and conclusions that the regional approach presented by WaterNet did make a contribution to the capacity needs of the region both in terms of management and research capacity. Third, it draws two generalised lessons from the WaterNet experience. Lesson one pertains to the importance of legitimate ownership and an accountability structure for network effectiveness. Lesson two is related to the financial and intellectual resources required to jointly developing educational programmes through shared experience., AuthorCount:6

Coordinating lead authors: Jill Jäger and Neeyati PatelLead authors: Vladimir Ryabinin, Pushker Kharecha, James Reynolds, Lawrence Hislop and Johan RockströmContributing authors: Andrew Githeko, Pauline Dube, Niki Frantzeskaki, Derk Loorbach, Jan Rotmans, Genrikh Alekseev, Benjamin Gaddis and Jiansheng Ye (GEO Fellow)Principal scientific reviewer: Gerhard J. HerndlChapter coordinator: Neeyati Patel

Different uses of the terms drivers, variables, and shocks cause confusion in the literature and in discussions on the dynamics of ecosystems and social-ecological systems. Three main sources of confusion are unclear definition of the system, unclear definition of the role of people, and confusion between variables and drivers. As a contribution to resolving some of the confusion, we offer one interpretation of how the terms might be used., AuthorCount:5

Increasing population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agriculture and natural resources. Today, approximately a billion people are chronically malnourished while our agricultural systems are concurrently degrading land, water, biodiversity and climate on a global scale. To meet the world's future food security and sustainability needs, food production must grow substantially while, at the same time, agriculture's environmental footprint must shrink dramatically. Here we analyse solutions to this dilemma, showing that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing 'yield gaps' on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste. Together, these strategies could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.

Increasing population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agriculture and natural resources. Today, approximately a billion people are chronically malnourished while our agricultural systems are concurrently degrading land, water, biodiversity and climate on a global scale. To meet the world's future food security and sustainability needs, food production must grow substantially while, at the same time, agriculture's environmental footprint must shrink dramatically. Here we analyse solutions to this dilemma, showing that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing 'yield gaps' on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste. Together, these strategies could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture., authorCount :21

Othe authors: Stephen Polasky, Will Steffen

In this study we explore the potential impacts of two strategies, namely in situ water harvesting (in situ WH) and fertilisation with stored human urine (Ecosan), to increase the water and nutrient availability in rain-fed smallholder agriculture in South Africa's Thukela River basin (29,000 km(2)). We use the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to simulate potential impacts on smallholder maize yields, river flow regimes, plant transpiration, and soil and canopy evaporation during 1997-2006. Based on the results, the impacts on maize yields are likely to be small with in situ WH (median change: 0%) but significant with Ecosan (median increase: 30%). The primary causes for these effects are high nitrogen stress on crop growth, and low or untimed soil moisture enhancement with in situ WH. However, the impacts vary significantly in time and space, occasionally resulting in yield increases of up to 40% with in situ WH. Soil fertility improvements primarily increase yield magnitudes, whereas soil moisture enhancements reduce spatial yield variability. Ecosan significantly improves the productivity of the evaporative fluxes by increasing transpiration (median: 2.8%, 4.7 mm season(-1)) and reducing soil and canopy evaporation (median: -1.7%, -4.5 mm season(-1)). In situ WH does not generally affect the river flow regimes. Occasionally, significant regime changes occur due to enhanced lateral and shallow aquifer return flows. This leads to higher risks of flooding in some areas, but also to enhanced low flows, which help sustain aquatic ecosystems in the basin., authorCount :4

Yield levels in smallholder farming systems in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa are generally low. Water shortage in the root zone during critical crop development stages is a fundamental constraining factor. While there is ample evidence to show that conservation tillage can promote soil health, it has recently been suggested that the main benefit in semi-arid farming systems may in fact be an in situ water harvesting effect. In this paper we present the result from an on-farm conservation tillage experiment (combining ripping with mulch and manure application) that was carried out in northeastern Tanzania from 2005 to 2008, testing this hypothesis. Special attention was given to the effects on the water retention properties of the soil. The tested conservation treatment only had a clear yield increasing effect during one of the six experimental seasons (maize grain yields increased by 41%, and biomass by 65%), and this was a season that received exceptional amounts of rainfall (549 mm). While the other seasons provided mixed results, there seemed to be an increasing yield gap between the conservation tillage treatment and the control towards the end of the experiment. Regarding soil system changes, small but significant effects on chemical and microbiological properties, but not on physical properties, were observed. This raises questions about the suggested water harvesting effect and its potential to contribute to stabilized yield levels under semi-arid conditions. We conclude that, at least in a shorter time perspective, the tested type of conservation tillage seems to boost productivity during already good seasons, rather than stabilize harvests during poor rainfall seasons. Highlighting the challenges involved in upgrading these farming systems, we discuss the potential contribution of conservation tillage towards improved water availability in the crop root zone in a longer-term perspective.

This book provides a comprehensive presentation of the realization of improved rainfed agriculture yield in semi-arid and dry land areas. The incentive of watershed programs is to increase the return on investment with over 20% for 65% of the projects that are currently underperforming. Besides techniques to improve the livelihood of the many small-scale farmers in developing countries, it includes examples and case studies for further support. The methods discussed have recently shown to be successful and economically remunerative in India and in various African countries. Intended for professionals (investors, policy makers), researchers and (post) graduate students working on dry land and sustainable agriculture and water and natural resources management. Suited for courses in dry land agriculture, soil and water management and watershed development.

Special Section Issue: 3rd Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability / Guest edited by Carl Folke and Johan Rockström

Solutions is a nonprofit print and online publication devoted to showcasing bold and innovative ideas for solving the world's integrated ecological, social, and economic problems.

Rainfed agriculture plays and will continue to play a dominant role in providing food and livelihoods for an increasing world population. We describe the world's semi-arid and dry sub-humid savannah and steppe regions as global hotspots, in terms of water related constraints to food production, high prevalence of malnourishment and poverty, and rapidly increasing food demands. We argue that major water investments in agriculture are required. In these regions yield gaps are large, not due to lack of water per se, but rather due to inefficient management of water, soils, and crops. An assessment of management options indicates that knowledge exists regarding technologies, management systems, and planning methods. A key strategy is to minimise risk for dry spell induced crop failures, which requires an emphasis on water harvesting systems for supplemental irrigation. Large-scale adoption of water harvesting systems will require a paradigm shift in Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), in which rainfall is regarded as the entry point for the governance of freshwater, thus incorporating green water resources (sustaining rainfed agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems) and blue water resources (local runoff). The divide between rainfed and irrigated agriculture needs to be reconsidered in favor of a governance, investment, and management paradigm, which considers all water options in agricultural systems. A new focus is needed on the meso-catchment scale, as opposed to the current focus of IWRM on the basin level and the primary focus of agricultural improvements on the farmer's field. We argue that the catchment scale offers the best opportunities for water investments to build resilience in small-scale agricultural systems and to address trade-offs between water for food and other ecosystem functions and services., authorCount :9

Recent developments of global models and data sets enable a new, spatially explicit and process-based assessment of green and blue water in food production and trade. An initial intercomparison of a range of different (hydrological, vegetation, crop, water resources and economic) models, confirms that green water use in global crop production is about 4-5 times greater than consumptive blue water use. Hence, the full green-to-blue spectrum of agricultural water management options needs to be used when tackling the increasing water gap in food production. The different models calculate considerable potentials for complementing the conventional approach of adding irrigation, with measures to increase water productivity, such as rainwater harvesting, supplementary irrigation, vapour shift and soil and nutrient management. Several models highlight Africa, in particular sub-Saharan Africa, as a key region for improving water productivity in agriculture, by implementing these measures. Virtual water trade, mostly based on green water, helps to close the water gap in a number of countries. It is likely to become even more important in the future, when inequities in water availability are projected to grow, due to climate, population and other drivers of change. Further model developments and a rigorous green-blue water model intercomparison are proposed, to improve simulations at global and regional scale and to enable tradeoff analyses for the different adaptation options., authorCount :6

Resilience and vulnerability represent two related yet different approaches to understanding the response of systems and actors to change; to shocks and surprises, as well as slow creeping changes. Their respective origins in ecological and social theory largely explain the continuing differences in approach to social-ecological dimensions of change. However, there are many areas of strong convergence. This paper explores the emerging linkages and complementarities between the concepts of resilience and vulnerability to identify areas of synergy. We do this with regard to theory, methodology, and application. The paper seeks to go beyond just recognizing the complementarities between the two approaches to demonstrate how researchers are actively engaging with each field to coproduce new knowledge, and to suggest promising areas of complementarity that are likely to further research and action in the field.

Authors:Reid, W.V., D. Chen, L. Goldfarb, H. Hackmann, Y.T. Lee, K. Mokhele, E. Ostrom, K. Raivio,J. Rockström, H. J. Schellnhuber, A. Whyte

Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m(-2) in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite >= 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O-3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N-2 to 35 Tg N yr(-1)) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km(3) yr(-1) of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The so, QC 20110426

Authors: Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, S. Chapin, E.F. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H.J. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. de Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, J.A. Foley

Our primary goal in this paper is to describe how improvements in water and land management can increase the productivity of water in agriculture, which, broadly defined, means getting more value or benefit from the volume of water used to produce crops, fish, forests and livestock (Kijne et al., 2003). We begin by reviewing water scarcity and water productivity at the global level. We then describe ten Key Messages regarding efforts to improve water productivity in agriculture, with emphasis on Africa and South Asia.

Authors: Rockström, J., P. Kaumbutho, J. Mwalley, A.W. Nzabi, M. Temesgen, L. Mawenya, J. Barron, J. Mutua and S. Damgaard-Larsen.