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Las inundaciones son un fenómeno propio de los rasgos geográficos de nuestro país. En todo momento histórico se han desarrollado crecidas fluviales y desbordamientos que han ocasionado daños económicos y pérdida de vidas humanas. Los documentos escritos (informes, memoriales) han dejado testimonio de estos episodios extremos y desde la Edad Moderna se acompañarían de mapas de zonas afectadas. Sólo desde los años ochenta del pasado siglo estos cartogramas dibujarán mapas de riesgo en relación con la evolución conceptual y de método del análisis de riesgo, la mejora de los sistemas de representación cartográfica y la aparición de normativas que obligarán a su realización como herramienta básica para la planificación territorial. Floods are an own phenomenon of the geographical characteristics of our country. In every historical moment have developed river floods that have caused economic damage and life loss. Written documents (reports, memorials) have left evidence of these extreme events, and since the Modern Age would be annexed maps of affected areas. Only since the eighties of last century these cartograms draw risk maps in relation to the conceptual and method of risk analysis advances, in relation to the improvement of mapping system and the development of legal regulations that force its realization as a basic tool for spatial planning. Les inondations sont un phénomène naturel des caractéristiques géographiques de notre pays. Tout au long de l’histoire des inondations ont été élaborés et ont causé d’énormes dégâts économiques et la perte de la vie. Les documents écrits (rapports, mémoirels) ont laissé des preuves de ces phénomènes naturels extrêmes et de l’âge moderne sont accompagnés par des cartes des zones affectées. Depuis les années quatre-vingt du XXe siècle commencent à dessiner des cartes de risques en ce qui concerne le développement conceptuel et méthodologique de l’analyse des risques, les progrès dans les systèmes de cartographie et l’élaboration de règlements qui déterminent sa performance comme un outil de base pour l`amenagement du territoire.

[ES] Los perjuicios provocados por las inundaciones reducen el número de bienes en comunidades y sociedades al destruir cosechas en pie, edificaciones, infraestructura y maquinaria, sin contar con las pérdidas de vidas humanas. En ocasiones los efectos de las inundaciones son dramáticos, no sólo en casos particulares a nivel de hogares sino en todo un país, como en el caso de Colombia donde las fuertes anomalías de precipitación, sumadas a la construcción social del riesgo están impactando la comunidad y los sectores productivos, con pérdidas superiores a US $4.870 millones en el 2011, evidenciando la necesidad de mejorar la gestión. El objetivo general de la tesina es abordar el problema de los desastres socio-naturales por inundaciones en Colombia a partir un marco conceptual para la gestión integrada del riesgo de inundaciones y de la revisión del estado del conocimiento; el aporte consiste en documentar los problemas presentados a raíz de las inundaciones recientes, identificar las causas del desastre ocurrido en el periodo 2010 ¿ 2011, y sentar las bases de una propuesta de sistema de gestión integrada del riesgo de inundaciones en La Victoria, Valle del Cauca, Colombia. El documento se basa en la revisión de diferentes enfoques para gestionar inundaciones en armonía con una visión ecosistémica y de gestión integrada del recurso hídrico; se analizan los factores naturales y antrópicos que contribuyen a las inundaciones y se plantean aspectos a incorporar para mejorar la gestión del riesgo, analizando la necesidad de incluir nuevos conocimientos de clima en la evaluación. Las inundaciones en el periodo 2010 ¿ 2011 han ocasionado perdidas con un costo del 1% del PIB (US $3.800 millones), dejan 203 muertos y más de cuatro millones de personas afectadas. El desastre se debe múltiples factores, en su mayoría de carácter antrópico. El análisis de datos históricos muestra que las medidas emprendidas hasta el momento no logran los objetivos en prevención y mitigación del riesgo. La baja inversión nacional en la gestión de desastres va en contravía, de las tendencias crecientes de los daños por inundaciones en los últimos 40 años. A diferencia de lo encontrado en otros países, Colombia no cuenta con una directriz para la evaluación y control del riesgo de inundaciones; se destaca en casi todas las causas de la catástrofe, las debilidades a nivel institucional para hacer cumplir la legislación ambiental y de ordenamiento territorial. El efecto de la variabilidad climática, combinado con el acelerado aumento de la urbanización no planificada sobre áreas con riesgo de inundación y la deficiente gestión del uso del suelo son las principales causas de transformación de las inundaciones en desastres socio-naturales. Para abordar el problema se plantea un modelo de gestión que incorpore el conocimiento del riesgo, estrategias de prevención y mitigación, planes de respuesta y recuperación. Tiene especial importancia la construcción de mapas de riesgo apoyados en Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG), ya que sintetizan el conocimiento sobre el daño potencial de una inundación y sirven como herramienta para la toma de decisiones. Dentro del grupo de actuaciones no estructurales ineludibles figuran los planes de cuenca, los planes de ordenamiento territorial, la normativa de urbanismo y los planes de respuesta a emergencias, rehabilitación y reconstrucción. La propuesta aplicada al caso de estudio es: incorporar información sobre el fenómeno El Niño Oscilación del Sur (El ENOS) para evaluar los caudales de inundación, analizar otras amenazas que pueden afectar en la gestión de inundaciones, valorar ecosistemas estratégicos, incluir un escenario de inundación por fallo de estructuras de protección, evaluar la amenaza para periodos de retorno de 25, 100 y 200 años. Además, dependiendo de la disponibilidad de información plantear una estimación de la vulnerabilidad a partir de los daños sobre los bienes o a partir de indicadores desagregados de exposición física, fragilidad socioeconómica y nivel de resiliencia; aplicar métodos de toma de decisiones participativos para la selección de actuaciones; incluir la colaboración de la comunidad en la construcción de los planes de respuesta y recuperación; y por ultimo, realizar la evaluación de los resultados para ajustar los planes a los cambios en la amenaza y la vulnerabilidad en el tiempo., [EN] Damages from floods reduce the goods from communities and societies by destroying growing crops, buildings, infrastructure, machinery, and human lives. Many times, consequences from floods are dramatic, not only affecting individual households, but entire countries, as in Colombia. In this country, the strong anomalies in rainfall, together with the social construct of risk, affect both the communities and the productive sector, with financial losses higher than US $4.870 in 2011, showing the need to improve management. This thesis aims to address the problem of socio-natural disasters due to floods in Colombia, through a conceptual framework for the integrated flood management and a state of the art review. The contribution to knowledge is the documentation of problems from recent floods, identifying the causes of the disaster in the period 2010 ¿ 2011, and the provision of the basis for a proposal to integrated flood risk management in La Victoria, Valle del Cauca, Colombia. The document includes a review of different approaches to flood management under the ecosystem and the integrated water resource management approaches. Natural and anthropogenic factors to floods are analyzed and strategies to improve risk management are proposed, from an analysis of the need to introduce new climatic knowledge in assessments. Floods during the period 2010 ¿ 2011 represented losses equivalent to 1% of the GDP (US $3.800 millions), 203 human deaths and around four million people affected. The analysis shows the disaster was consequence of multiple factors, mainly anthropogenic. Assessment of historical data indicates that the implemented measures to address the problem have been insufficient to achieve the objectives of risk prevention and mitigation. The low national investment in disaster management mismatch with the increasing tendencies in floods over the last 40 years. Opposite to other countries, Colombia lack of a directive for the assessment and control of flood risks. In almost every catastrophe, the causes are associated to institutional weaknesses to enforce environmental and land regulations. The effect of climatic variability combined with rapid and unplanned urbanization, in areas with high risk to floods, and inadequate land use, are among the principal causes for the floods to become socio natural disasters. To address this problem, a management model that takes into account risk knowledge, prevention and mitigation strategies, and response and recovery plans is proposed. An essential element of this model is risk mapping, supported by Geographic Information Systems (GIS), for its ability to synthesize knowledge on the potential damages of floods and as tools for decision making. Within the set of non-structural unavoidable strategies are watershed plans, land management plans, urbanism normative and plans for emergency response, rehabilitation and rebuilding. The proposal applied to La Victoria case study comprises: introducing information on the phenomenon El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) to evaluate flood flows, assessment of other hazards to flood management, strategic ecosystems valuing, consideration of one floods scenario due to failure of protection structures, evaluation of hazards for return periods of 25, 100 and 200 years. Further depending on data availability, performing vulnerability estimations from damages on property or from disaggregated indicators of physical exposure, socioeconomic fragility and resilience levels; application of participatory processes to select actions; community involvement to formulate response and recuperation plans; and finally, assessment of results to adjust plans and changes on the hazards and vulnerability in time.

Floods are an own phenomenon of the geographical characteristics of our country. In every historical moment have developed river floods that have caused economic damage and life loss. Written documents (reports, memorials) have left evidence of these extreme events, and since the Modern Age would be annexed maps of affected areas. Only since the eighties of last century these cartograms draw risk maps in relation to the conceptual and method of risk analysis advances, in relation to the improvement of mapping system and the development of legal regulations that force its realization as a basic tool for spatial planning. Las inundaciones son un fenómeno propio de los rasgos geográficos de nuestro país. En todo momento histórico se han desarrollado crecidas fluviales y desbordamientos que han ocasionado daños económicos y pérdida de vidas humanas. Los documentos escritos (informes, memoriales) han dejado testimonio de estos episodios extremos y desde la Edad Moderna se acompañarían de mapas de zonas afectadas. Sólo desde los años ochenta del pasado siglo estos cartogramas dibujarán mapas de riesgo en relación con la evolución conceptual y de método del análisis de riesgo, la mejora de los sistemas de representación cartográfica y la aparición de normativas que obligarán a su realización como herramienta básica para la planificación territorial. Les inondations sont un phénomène naturel des caractéristiques géographiques de notre pays. Tout au long de l’histoire des inondations ont été élaborés et ont causé d’énormes dégâts économiques et la perte de la vie. Les documents écrits (rapports, mémoirels) ont laissé des preuves de ces phénomènes naturels extrêmes et de l’âge moderne sont accompagnés par des cartes des zones affectées. Depuis les années quatre-vingt du XXe siècle commencent à dessiner des cartes de risques en ce qui concerne le développement conceptuel et méthodologique de l’analyse des risques, les progrès dans les systèmes de cartographie et l’élaboration de règlements qui déterminent sa performance comme un outil de base pour l`amenagement du territoire.

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2011, Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2011, Çubuklu villaları projesi kapsamındaki arazi içinde ve Çubuklu deresi vadisinin kuzey yamacında terk edilmiş taşocakları bulunmaktadır. Eski üretim aynalarının bulunduğu alan, yerleşime açılmış ve şev yüzeyleri hiçbir rehabilitasyon işlemi geçirmeden villalar projelendirilmiştir. Vadinin kuzey yamacındaki bu terk edilmiş taşocaklarının eski üretim aynalarında kaya düşmesi, tabaka-blok-kama kayması türündeki duraysızlıklar zaman içinde artış göstermiş ve sonuç olarak, asansör kulesi arkasında büyük kama kaymasının gelişip yapılan imalatlara ve konutlara zarar vermesiyle, şevlerin insanların yaşam alanı içerisinde büyük tehtit oluşturacağı anlaşılmıştır. Çalışma alanında Kartal ve Dolayoba formasyonları yeralmaktadır. Rehabilitasyonu yapılacak olan şevler Silüriyen yaşlı dolayoba kireçtaşları içinde oluşturulmuştur. Bu çalışmada, söz konusu kaya şevlerinin stabilitesi ve ıslahına ilişkin uygulamalar vardır. Uygulamalara, kaya şevlerinin kinematik açıdan değerlendirilmesi ve risk haritalarının hazırlanması ile başlanmıştır. Bunun sonucunda ise, farklı duraysızlık türlerinin gelişebileceği şev yönelimleri belirlenmiştir. Şev yüzeyleri, uygulama kolaylığı açısından 7 (yedi) bölgeye ayrılmıştır Özellikle asansör bölgesinde bulunan şev yüzeyindeki toprak akmasını engellemek ve çekme gerilmeleri alabilen bir hale getirmek için 75-200cm ϕ26 bulonlar kullanılmış, çelik hasır ve püskürtme beton uygulanmıştır.Risk oluşturan bu blokların geometrileri belirlenmiş ve statik açıdan denge durumu analiz edilerek, güvenlik sayısı 3 ve üzeri olacak şekilde gerekli işlemler uygulanmıştır. Yapılan işlemlerde olabildiğince çevreyle uyumlu ve estetik açıdan zengin yöntemler tercih edilmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, asansör bölgesinde, şevin yüzeyini görsel açıdan güzelleştirmek için tomruklar uygulanmış ve şev yüzeyi yeşillendirilmiştir., In this study, there are some old grooves applications of rock slopes and their improvement in Çubuklu Valley. This site that containing quarries open for settlement without doing any rehabilitation research. In the abandoned old grooves’ slope surface in the northside of the Çubuklu Valley, there are some unstable conditions such as rock fall, layer- block- wedge slide. As a result of all, especially the slope on the back of the lift tower which is create a threat by sliding and the hanging blocks expose a risk in the site. In the working area, there are Kartal and Dolayoba formation. Rehabilitation of the slopes will be formed in Silurian Dolayoba limestones. İn this study, there some applications of the rock slope stability and their rehabilitations. The slopes at the Çubuklu site was evaluated using kinematic analysis and possible slope orientations for different types of instability were determined. To work easly we divide the slope surface in to seven. Especially in the fiftg section to avoid the deformation above the slope surface, we use 75-200cm ϕ26 rock bolt, wire mash and as a shotcrete application. By the way the blocks and their geometry are also determine which compose of risk. The block’s equilibrium is also analysed and to make the value at least three we applied some technical support above the slope surface. In all works in the site we try to make the applications environmentally compatible. For this purpose we put tree stumps over the slope surface that which the movement still exist. After this application we make the slope surface of the green., Yüksek Lisans, M.Sc.

One of the most serious challenges of modern society is the lack of awareness of the presence of various dangers and possibilities of influencing them. Each community takes various measures and activities to assess the degree of their vulnerability tending to a state free from danger. As the most complex part, risk assessment requires a systematic approach to identifying and analyzing hazards based on the application of appropriate criteria for calculating the level of risk presented in this paper. Each risk assessment methodology must be adapted to the context of risk assessment. For this reason, the methodology for risk assessment of natural and other disasters is an attempt to establish basic requirements and criteria for risk assessment in the field of emergency management. Due to the complexity and unpredictability of natural and technological hazards that threaten people, material resources and the environment, risk assessment methodology includes risk mapping and assessment of combinations of risks - multi-risk, as well as a cross-border dimension of risk. Jedan od najozbiljnijih izazova savremenog društva jeste nedostatak svesti o prisustvu različitih opasnosti i mogućnostima uticaja na njih. U težnji ka stanju oslobođenom opasnosti svaka društvena zajednica preduzima razne mere i aktivnosti da proceni stepen svoje ugroženosti. Kao najsloženiji deo procene ugroženosti, procena rizika zahteva sistematičan pristup u identifikovanju i analizi opasnosti, zasnovan na primeni odgovarajućih kriterijuma za izračunavanje nivoa rizika prikazanih u ovom radu. Svaka metodologija za procenu rizika mora se prilagoditi kontekstu procene rizika. Iz tog razloga, metodologija za procenu rizika od elementarnih nepogoda i drugih nesreća predstavlja pokušaj da se uspostave osnovni zahtevi i kriterijumi za procenu rizika u sferi upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama. Zbog kompleksnosti i nepredvidivosti prirodnih i tehničko-tehnoloških opasnosti koje ugrožavaju ljude, materijalna dobra i životnu sredinu, metodologijom procene rizika je obuhvaćena i izrada mapa rizika, procena kombinacija rizika - multirizika, kao i prekogranična dimenzija rizika.

The study of pest distributions in space and time in agricultural systems provides important information for the optimization of integrated pest management programs and for the planning of experiments. Two statistical problems commonly associated to the space-time modelling of data that hinder its implementation are the excess of zero counts and the presence of missing values due to the adopted sampling scheme. These problems are considered in the present article. Data of coffee berry borer infestation collected under Colombian field conditions are used to study the spatio-temporal evolution of the pest infestation. The dispersion of the pest starting from initial focuses of infestation was modelled considering linear and quadratic infestation growth trends as well as different combinations of random effects representing both spatially and not spatially structured variability. The analysis was accomplished under a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The missing values were dealt with by means of multiple imputation. Additionally, a mixture model was proposed to take into account the excess of zeroes in the beginning of the infestation. In general, quadratic models had a better fit than linear models. The use of spatially structured parameters also allowed a clearer identification of the temporal increase or decrease of infestation patterns. However, neither of the space-time models based on standard distributions was able to properly describe the excess of zero counts in the beginning of the infestation. This overdispersed pattern was correctly modelled by the mixture space-time models, which had a better performance than their counterpart without a mixture component. O estudo da distribuição de pragas em espaço e tempo em sistemas agrícolas fornece informação importante para a otimização de programas de manejo integrado de pragas e para o planejamento de experimentos. Dois problemas estatísticos comumente associados à modelagem espaço-temporal desse tipo de dados que dificultam sua implementação são o excesso de zeros nas contagens e a presença de dados faltantes devido ao esquema de amostragem adotado. Esses problemas são considerados no presente artigo. Para estudar a evolução da infestação da broca do café a partir de focos iniciais de infestação foram usados dados de infestação da praga coletados em condições de campo na Colômbia. Foram considerados modelos com tendência de crescimento da infestação linear e quadrática, assim como diferentes combinações de efeitos aleatórios representando variabilidade espacialmente estruturada e não estruturada. As análises foram feitas sob uma abordagem Bayesiana hierárquica. O método de imputação múltipla foi usado para abordar o problema de dados faltantes. Adicionalmente, foi proposto um modelo de mistura para levar em consideração o excesso de zeros nas contagens no início da infestação. Em geral, os modelos quadráticos tiveram um melhor ajuste que os modelos lineares. O uso de parâmetros espacialmente estruturados permitiu uma identificação mais clara dos padrões temporais de acréscimo ou decréscimo na infestação. No entanto, nenhum dos modelos espaço-tempo baseados em distribuições padrões descreveu, apropriadamente, o excesso de zeros no início da infestação. Esse padrão de sobredispersão foi corretamente modelado pelos modelos de mistura espaço-tempo, os quais tiveram um melhor desempenho que seus homólogos sem mistura.

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R 0 , can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R 0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R 0 . We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R 0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R 0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R 0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R0. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R0 map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R0 maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R0 maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

España es un territorio de riesgo. La variedad de peligros naturales, especialmente climáticos, que pueden afectarle unido al alto grado de ocupación humana en algunas de sus regiones, convierten al territorio español en espacio geográfico con riesgo natural elevado en el conjunto de Europa. El riesgo natural se ha convertido en un problema territorial que afecta ya con regularidad elevada a la sociedad y economía española. Y los modelos de cambio climático nos presentan un panorama poco alentador para las próximas décadas del presente siglo, puesto que inciden en la profundización del carácter extremo de nuestras condiciones climáticas, especialmente en las regiones del mediterráneo y del sur peninsular. Spain is territory of risk. The variety of natural hazards, specially climatic ones, which can affect it joined to high degree of human occupation in some of his regions, turn Spanish territory in geographical space with raised natural risk in the set of Europe. Natural risk has turned into a territorial problem that affects already regularly raised up to Spanish society and economy. And climatic change models present a slightly encouraging panorama for next decades of the present century, since affect in the deepening of the extreme character of our climatic conditions, specially in Mediterranean regions and in the south of Iberian peninsula. Este trabajo incluye resultados de investigación llevados a cabo en el marco del proyecto I+D «Riesgo de inundación y ordenación del territorio en los municipios litorales alicantinos. Análisis en los cambios de exposición y vulnerabilidad de los territorios de riesgo (1994-2005)». (no ref.: SEJ2006-15153-C03-03).

El estudio de los riesgos naturales se ha convertido en uno de los temas estrella de las ciencias de la Tierra. La ocurrencia de desastres naturales de impacto mundial ocurridos en la última década ha favorecido el desarrollo de investigaciones sobre riesgos naturales. Se han experimentado asimismo importantes cambios conceptuales y de método en el análisis de riesgo, así como la aparición de un campo de aplicación de estudios e investigaciones sobre riesgos naturales, en relación con la promulgación de normativa urbanística y territorial que obliga a la inclusión de cartografía e informes de riesgos en el desarrollo de nuevos usos sobre el territorio. The study of natural risks has turned into one of the star topics into Earth´s sciences. The occurrence of natural disasters with world impact, happened in the last decade, has favored the development of investigations on natural risks. Important conceptual and work method changes have been experienced in risk analysis, as well as the appearance of a field of application of studies and investigations on natural risks, in relation with the promulgation of urban development and territorial laws that forces to the incorporation of reports and cartography of risks in the development of new land uses.

This paper is going to present methodology of defining flood risk maps for the one smaller catchment area in the Danube basin on the basis of integrative water management. The main parameters are related to natural features of the area, land use and human impacts. The purpose of the project is to test and evaluate the methodology, which can be applied for the other catchment areas in the Danube river basin. According to the risk maps for the return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 1000 years cost -benefit analysis has been made. Paper is concluded with general recommendations for the further activities in the flood protection development and improvement.

Estudar a distribuição espacial de pragas em sistemas agrícolas pode fornecer informação importante sobre os mecanismos de dispersão das espécies e sua interação com fatores ambientais, sendo útil também no desenvolvimento de planos de amostragem, na otimização de programas de manejo integrado de pragas e no planejamento de experimentos. Neste trabalho foram comparados vários modelos para estudar a variação espacial da infestação da broca do café visando descrever adequadamente a dispersão da infestação da praga e identificar áreas de crescimento ou decréscimo na infestação. Foram usadas diferentes combinações de efeitos aleatórios representando variabilidade não estruturada e estruturada espacialmente. Foram também avaliados diferentes esquemas de vizinhança para representar a correlação espacial dos dados. Adicionalmente foram testados modelos de mistura para levar em consideração o excesso de zeros no início da infestação. O ajuste dos modelos foi feito usando métodos MCMC. Os resultados são apresentados como uma seqüência de mapas de risco de infestação. Estudiar la distribución espacial de las plagas en los sistemas agrícolas puede proporcionar información importante sobre los mecanismos de dispersión de las especies y su interacción con factores ambientales, y también es útil en el desarrollo de planes de muestreo, la optimización de los programas de manejo integrado de plagas y la planificación de experimentos. En este estudio se compararon varios modelos para estudiar la variación espacial de la infestación de broca del café con el fin de describir adecuadamente la dispersión de la infestación de la plaga e identificar las áreas de crecimiento o disminución de la infestación. Fueron utilizadas diferentes combinaciones de efectos aleatorios que representan la variabilidad espacial estructurada y no estructurada. También se evaluaron diferentes esquemas vecinos para representar la correlación espacial de los datos. Adicionalmente modelos mixtos fueron probados para tener en cuenta el exceso de ceros al comienzo de la infestación. El ajuste de los modelos se realizó mediante métodos MCMC. Los resultados se presentan como una secuencia de mapas de riesgo de infestación. Studying the spatial distribution of agricultural pests can provide important information about the species dispersion mechanisms and its interaction with environmental factors. It also helps the development of sampling plans, the integrated pest management and planning of experiments. This work compared several models for studying the spatial variation of the coffee berry borer infestation in order to produce risk maps and identify areas of low/high levels of infestation. Firstly spatial analysis was carried out using different combinations of random effects representing spatially structured and unstructured variability. Also different neighborhood schemes were used to represent the spatial correlation of the data. Mixture models allowing for the excess of zeros in the first months were also considered. The model fitting was done using MCMC methods. The results are presented as a sequence of risk maps.

Background Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a clinically important virus in Australia responsible for a number of epidemics over the past century. Since there is no vaccine for MVEV, other preventive health measures to curtail its spread must be considered, including the development of predictive risk models and maps to help direct public health interventions. This article aims to support these approaches by presenting a model for assessing MVEV risk in Western Australia (WA). Methods A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for assessing MVEV risk was developed and used to quantify and map disease risks in WA. The model combined various abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic factors that might affect the risk of MVEV into a predictive framework, based on the ecology of the major mosquito vector and waterbird hosts of MVEV. It was further refined and tested using retrospective climate data from 4 years (2000, 2003, 2009, and 2011). Results Implementing the model across WA demonstrated that it could predict locations of human MVEV infection and sentinel animal seroconversion in the 4 years tested with some degree of accuracy. In general, risks are highest in the State’s north and lower in the south. The model predicted that short-term climate change, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s A1B emissions scenario, would decrease MVEV risks in summer and autumn, largely due to higher temperatures decreasing vector survival. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first model to use a BBN to quantify MVEV risks in WA. The models and maps developed here may assist public health agencies in preparing for and managing Murray Valley encephalitis in the future. In its current form, the model is knowledge-driven and based on the analysis of potential risk factors that affect the dynamics of MVEV using retrospective data. Further work and additional testing should be carried out to test its validity in future years. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12942-016-0036-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

http://citta-conference.fe.up.pt/editions/2013 Knowing the factors that affect the likelihood of an accident occurrence has been increasingly challenging to the researchers given the huge social and financial costs that derive from road accidents. In Portugal, developments in this area have mainly involved interurban roads studies. However, according to ANSRi, about 70% of Portuguese road accidents occur in urban spaces, a trend common to most European countries. The lack of national or local information systems containing geo-referenced road accidents, geometric characteristics of roads, among others, hamper the creation of tools that help to assess the risk of exposure at a micro level, i.e. road intersections. The weaknesses mentioned above led us towards the implementation of models in a GIS-based environment in order to estimate the frequency of accidents for urban areas according to several breakdowns: road element, type of accident and the inclusion of explanatory variables related to road environment. One of the challenges faced by researchers when applying these models is the absence of data or its poor quality. Therefore, it is necessary to cross and analyse information from different sources, such as traffic variables (from model transportation planning), digital cartographic data, and other geometric variables, that may not be obtained in a direct way (e.g. using OpenStreetMap or Google Maps). In a further step, the estimation models will be programmed and applied according to the type of road element (e.g. intersections, roundabouts, segments). Finally, new information will be generated with all inputted data: a digital map with the number of accidents per road element. Such figures will need to be converted into something more meaningful for potential users, such as levels/categories (e.g. high, medium and low risk of exposure), which can be mapped. This paper proposes a methodology for automatic generation of road accident maps with those levels/categories. Thus, maps will serve as a decision support tool not only to insurers (who are likely to tax drivers more effectively, according to their exposure to risk), but also to drivers themselves (through generation of alarms that will allow them to tailor their driving performance), envisaging road safety improvement.

The assessment of the risk maps for the seismic vulnerability at large scale is based on the vulnerability of each building. In order to determine these vulnerabilities, it is first required to assign to each building its construction class. The construction class is needed to define the seismic behavior of the building. Since the structures have been built in different times, this construction classes are different between them, and their vulnerability values have been pre-defined in order to simplify the analysis. If, for a small city the task of assign to each building its construction class can be done by hand, in a big city, with thousands of buildings, this process can result long and hard. In this Master project the possibility of assigning the construction classes by using a machine learning method will be studied. This method use as a data set of the city of Lausanne from previous works which contains around 1000 buildings analyzed by hand with their construction classes. The goal of this method is to find the relationships between the attributes of the buildings to their construction classes. Thanks to the statistical offices, it is possible to obtain the attributes in an automatic way for every building in a city. Based on the relations that the machine learning method finds (and using the statistical attributes) the construction class for every building can finally be determined, in a quick and efficient manner. Once obtained the vulnerability’s values for each building, the risk maps can be drawn. In this project there will be studied three maps, two with the Europeans’ typologies (LM1, LM2), and one with the Swiss’ typologies (UniGE). Some comparisons will be made between the maps, in order to highlight the differences. Some other comparisons will be made to show the impact of the new micro zonation of Lausanne and of the new optimized method for the determination of the seismic displacement demand (N2 optimized method) on the maps. This is done for the mechanical methods (LM2 and UniGE) only. Finally, there will be shown the relationships between the soil’s characteristics (micro zonation), the building’s attributes and the city’s historical evolution with the risk maps.