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Abstract Background Antimalarial clinical efficacy studies for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria frequently encounter situations in which molecular genotyping is unable to discriminate between parasitic recurrence, either new infection or recrudescence. The current WHO guideline recommends excluding these individuals with indeterminate outcomes in a complete case (CC) analysis. Data from the four artemisinin-based combination (4ABC) trial was used to compare the performance of multiple imputation (MI) and inverse probability weighting (IPW) against the standard CC analysis for dealing with indeterminate recurrences. Methods 3369 study participants from the multicentre study (4ABC trial) with molecularly defined parasitic recurrence treated with three artemisinin-based combination therapies were used to represent a complete dataset. A set proportion of recurrent infections (10, 30 and 45%) were reclassified as missing using two mechanisms: a completely random selection (mechanism 1); missingness weakly dependent (mechanism 2a) and strongly dependent (mechanism 2b) on treatment and transmission intensity. The performance of MI, IPW and CC approaches in estimating the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) probability of parasitic recrudescence at day 28 was then compared. In addition, the maximum likelihood estimate of the cured proportion was presented for further comparison (analytical solution). Performance measures (bias, relative bias, standard error and coverage) were reported as an average from 1000 simulation runs. Results The CC analyses resulted in absolute underestimation of K-M probability of day 28 recrudescence by up to 1.7% and were associated with reduced precision and poor coverage across all the scenarios studied. Both MI and IPW method performed better (greater consistency and greater efficiency) compared to CC analysis. In the absence of censoring, the analytical solution provided the most consistent and accurate estimate of cured proportion compared to the CC analyses. Conclusions The widely used CC approach underestimates antimalarial failure; IPW and MI procedures provided efficient and consistent estimates and should be considered when reporting the results of antimalarial clinical trials, especially in areas of high transmission, where the proportion of indeterminate outcomes could be large. The analytical solution estimating the cured proportion could provide an alternative approach, in scenarios with minimal censoring due to loss to follow-up or new infections.

Abstract Background Malaria causes a reduction in haemoglobin that is compounded by primaquine, particularly in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. The aim of this study was to determine the relative contributions to red cell loss of malaria and primaquine in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax. Methods A systematic review identified P. vivax efficacy studies of chloroquine with or without primaquine published between January 2000 and March 2017. Individual patient data were pooled using standardised methodology, and the haematological response versus time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with non-linear terms for time. Mean differences in haemoglobin between treatment groups at day of nadir and day 42 were estimated from this model. Results In total, 3421 patients from 29 studies were included: 1692 (49.5%) with normal G6PD status, 1701 (49.7%) with unknown status and 28 (0.8%) deficient or borderline individuals. Of 1975 patients treated with chloroquine alone, the mean haemoglobin fell from 12.22 g/dL [95% CI 11.93, 12.50] on day 0 to a nadir of 11.64 g/dL [11.36, 11.93] on day 2, before rising to 12.88 g/dL [12.60, 13.17] on day 42. In comparison to chloroquine alone, the mean haemoglobin in 1446 patients treated with chloroquine plus primaquine was − 0.13 g/dL [− 0.27, 0.01] lower at day of nadir (p = 0.072), but 0.49 g/dL [0.28, 0.69] higher by day 42 (p 25% to 5 g/dL. Conclusions Primaquine has the potential to reduce malaria-related anaemia at day 42 and beyond by preventing recurrent parasitaemia. Its widespread implementation will require accurate diagnosis of G6PD deficiency to reduce the risk of drug-induced haemolysis in vulnerable individuals. Trial registration This trial was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42016053312. The date of the first registration was 23 December 2016.

Purpose: Most residents in rural regions of the United States consume fewer amounts of fruits and vegetables (FVs) compared with their urban counterparts. Difficulties in access to FVs often contribute to different consumption patterns in rural regions, aside from a lack of education or motivation for eating healthy foods. This article uses simulation methods to estimate the relationship between increasing food access and FV consumption levels in a targeted rural community. Methods: An agent-based model previously developed to predict individual dietary behaviors was used. We adapted it to a rural community in west Texas following a two-step process. First, we validated the model with observed data. Second, we simulated the impact of increasing access on FV consumption. We estimated model parameters from the 2010 census and other sources. Results: We found that decreasing the driving distance to FV outlets would increase FV consumption in the community. For example, a one-mile decrease in driving distance to the nearest FV store could lead to an 8.9% increase in FV consumption; a five-mile decrease in driving distance could lead to a 25% increase in FV consumption in the community. We found that the highest marginal increase in FV consumption was when the driving distance decreased from 3.5 miles to 3 miles. Conclusions: Analysis to inform policy alternatives is a challenge in rural settings due to lack of data. This study highlights the potential of simulation modeling to inform and analyze policy alternatives in settings with scarce data. The findings from modeling can be used to evaluate alternative policies in addressing chronic diseases through dietary interventions in rural regions.

The enteropathogen, Shigella, is highly virulent and remarkably adjusted to the intestinal environment of its almost exclusive human host. Key for Shigella pathogenicity is the injection of virulence effectors into the host cell via its type three secretion system (T3SS), initiating disease onset and progression by the vast diversity of the secreted T3SS effectors and their respective cellular targets. The multifaceted modulation of host signaling pathways exerted by Shigella T3SS effectors, which include the subversion of host innate immune defenses and the promotion of intracellular bacterial survival and dissemination, have been extensively reviewed in the recent past. This review focuses on the human species specificity of Shigella by discussing some possible evasion mechanisms towards the human, but not non-human or rodent gut innate defense barrier, leading to the lack of a relevant animal infection model. In addition, subversion mechanisms of the adaptive immune response are highlighted summarizing research advances of the recent years. In particular, the new paradigm of Shigella pathogenicity constituted of invasion-independent T3SS effector-mediated targeting of activated, human lymphocytes is discussed. Along with consequences on vaccine development, these findings offer new directions for future research endeavors towards a better understanding of immunity to Shigella infection.

Abstract Background Antimalarial efficacy studies in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum are confounded by a new infection (a competing risk event) since this event can potentially preclude a recrudescent event (primary endpoint of interest). The current WHO guidelines recommend censoring competing risk events when deriving antimalarial efficacy. We investigated the impact of considering a new infection as a competing risk event on the estimation of antimalarial efficacy in single-armed and comparative drug trials using two simulation studies. Methods The first simulation study explored differences in the estimates of treatment failure for areas of varying transmission intensities using the complement of the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) estimate and the Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF). The second simulation study extended this to a comparative drug efficacy trial for comparing the K-M curves using the log-rank test, and Gray’s k-sample test for comparing the equality of CIFs. Results The complement of the K-M approach produced larger estimates of cumulative treatment failure compared to the CIF method; the magnitude of which was correlated with the observed proportion of new infection and recrudescence. When the drug efficacy was 90%, the absolute overestimation in failure was 0.3% in areas of low transmission rising to 3.1% in the high transmission settings. In a scenario which is most likely to be observed in a comparative trial of antimalarials, where a new drug regimen is associated with an increased (or decreased) rate of recrudescences and new infections compared to an existing drug, the log-rank test was found to be more powerful to detect treatment differences compared to the Gray’s k-sample test. Conclusions The CIF approach should be considered for deriving estimates of antimalarial efficacy, in high transmission areas or for failing drugs. For comparative studies of antimalarial treatments, researchers need to select the statistical test that is best suited to whether the rate or cumulative risk of recrudescence is the outcome of interest, and consider the potential differing prophylactic periods of the antimalarials being compared.

Abstract Background There is a pressing need to understand better the extent and distribution of antimicrobial resistance on a global scale, to inform development of effective interventions. Collation of datasets for meta-analysis, mathematical modelling and temporo-spatial analysis is hampered by the considerable variability in clinical sampling, variable quality in laboratory practice and inconsistencies in antimicrobial susceptibility testing and reporting. Methods The Microbiology Investigation Criteria for Reporting Objectively (MICRO) checklist was developed by an international working group of clinical and laboratory microbiologists, infectious disease physicians, epidemiologists and mathematical modellers. Results In keeping with the STROBE checklist, but applicable to all study designs, MICRO defines items to be included in reports of studies involving human clinical microbiology data. It provides a concise and comprehensive reference for clinicians, researchers, reviewers and journals working on, critically appraising, and publishing clinical microbiology datasets. Conclusions Implementation of the MICRO checklist will enhance the quality and scientific reporting of clinical microbiology data, increasing data utility and comparability to improve surveillance, grade data quality, facilitate meta-analyses and inform policy and interventions from local to global levels.

A number of disease-causing human transthyretin (TTR) mutations are known to lead to amyloid formation. Here the authors combine neutron crystallography, native mass spectrometry and modelling studies to characterize the T119M and S52P-TTR mutants, providing mechanistic insights into TTR amyloidosis.

Multiple Indonesian cities currently aim to qualify as “smart cities.” Previous research on defining smart cities (e.g., the implementation-oriented maturity model) tends to focus on components over interrelationships, is challenging to apply to a specific context such as Indonesia, and offers limited support for policy-relevant questions. In this paper, we propose to address these shortcomings to support policymakers in identifying concrete action plans in Indonesia specifically. Our approach clarifies interrelationships for the context of use and supports structural (e.g., what aspects of a “smart city” are impacted by an intervention?) as well as what-if policy questions. We started with a systems' science approach to developing a cognitive map of the components and their interrelationships, as is increasingly done in participatory modeling and particularly in socio-ecological management. We transformed semi-structured interviews of 10 Indonesian experts into maps and assembled them to create the first comprehensive smart cities cognitive map for Indonesia, totaling 52 concepts and 98 relationships. While a cognitive map already provides support for decision-making (e.g., by identifying loops in the system), it is only conceptual and thus cannot form predictions. Consequently, we extended our cognitive map into a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM), whose inference abilities allow to examine the dynamic response of an indicator (e.g., “smart city”) in response to different interventions. As fuzzy cognitive maps include the strengths of interrelationships but not the notion of time, future research may refine our model using system dynamics. This refinement would support policymakers in investigating when to conduct and/or evaluate an intervention.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is an elusive, inflammatory syndrome of the small intestine thought to be associated with enterocyte loss and gut leakiness and lead to stunted child growth. To date, the gold standard for diagnosis is small intestine biopsy followed by histology. Several putative biomarkers for EED have been proposed and are widely used in the field. Here, we assessed in a cross-sectional study of children aged 2–5 years for a large set of biomarkers including markers of protein exudation (duodenal and fecal alpha-1-antitrypsin (AAT)), inflammation (duodenal and fecal calprotectin, duodenal, fecal and blood immunoglobulins, blood cytokines, C-reactive protein (CRP)), gut permeability (endocab, lactulose-mannitol ratio), enterocyte mass (citrulline) and general nutritional status (branched-chain amino acids (BCAA), insulin-like growth factor) in a group of 804 children in two Sub-Saharan countries. We correlated these markers with each other and with anemia in stunted and non-stunted children. AAT and calprotectin, CRP and citrulline and citrulline and BCAA correlated with each other. Furthermore, BCAA, citrulline, ferritin, fecal calprotectin and CRP levels were correlated with hemoglobin levels. Our results show that while several of the biomarkers are associated with anemia, there is little correlation between the different biomarkers. Better biomarkers and a better definition of EED are thus urgently needed.

Tryptophan (TRP) is an essential dietary amino acid that, unless otherwise committed to protein synthesis, undergoes metabolism via the Tryptophan-Kynurenine (TRP-KYN) pathway in vertebrate organisms. TRP and its metabolites have key roles in diverse physiological processes including cell growth and maintenance, immunity, disease states and the coordination of adaptive responses to environmental and dietary cues. Changes in TRP metabolism can alter the availability of TRP for protein and serotonin biosynthesis as well as alter levels of the immune-active KYN pathway metabolites. There is now considerable evidence which has shown that the TRP-KYN pathway can be influenced by various stressors including glucocorticoids (marker of chronic stress), infection, inflammation and oxidative stress, and environmental toxicants. While there is little known regarding the role of TRP metabolism following exposure to environmental contaminants, there is evidence of linkages between chemically induced metabolic perturbations and altered TRP enzymes and KYN metabolites. Moreover, the TRP-KYN pathway is conserved across vertebrate species and can be influenced by exposure to xenobiotics, therefore, understanding how this pathway is regulated may have broader implications for environmental and wildlife toxicology. The goal of this narrative review is to (1) identify key pathways affecting Trp-Kyn metabolism in vertebrates and (2) highlight consequences of altered tryptophan metabolism in mammals, birds, amphibians, and fish. We discuss current literature available across species, highlight gaps in the current state of knowledge, and further postulate that the kynurenine to tryptophan ratio can be used as a novel biomarker for assessing organismal and, more broadly, ecosystem health.

Bacterial Type III Secretion Systems (T3SSs) are specialized multicomponent nanomachines that mediate the transport of proteins either to extracellular locations or deliver Type III Secretion effectors directly into eukaryotic host cell cytoplasm. Shigella, the causing agent of bacillary dysentery or shigellosis, bears a set of T3SS proteins termed translocators that form a pore in the host cell membrane. IpaB, the major translocator of the system, is a key factor in promoting Shigella pathogenicity. Prior to secretion, IpaB is maintained inside the bacterial cytoplasm in a secretion competent folding state thanks to its cognate chaperone IpgC. IpgC couples T3SS activation to transcription of effector genes through its binding to MxiE, probably after the delivery of IpaB to the secretion export gate. Small Angle X-ray Scattering experiments and modeling reveal that IpgC is found in different oligomeric states in solution, as it forms a stable heterodimer with full-length IpaB in contrast to an aggregation-prone homodimer in the absence of the translocator. These results support a stoichiometry of interaction 1:1 in the IpgC/IpaB complex and the multi-functional nature of IpgC under different T3SS states.

BackgroundThis study aimed to compare the prevalence of intestinal parasite infestations (IPIs) in stunted children, compared to control children, in Ankasina and Andranomanalina Isotry (two disadvantaged neighborhoods of Antananarivo, Madagascar), to characterize associated risk factors and to compare IPI detection by real-time PCR and standard microscopy techniques.Methodology/principal findingsFecal samples were collected from a total of 410 children (171 stunted and 239 control) aged 2-5 years. A single stool sample per subject was examined by simple merthiolate-iodine-formaldehyde (MIF), Kato-Katz smear and real-time PCR techniques. A total of 96.3% of the children were infested with at least one intestinal parasite. The most prevalent parasites were Giardia intestinalis (79.5%), Ascaris lumbricoides (68.3%) and Trichuris trichiura (68.0%). For all parasites studied, real-time PCR showed higher detection rates compared to microscopy (G. intestinalis [77.6% (n = 318) versus 20.9% (n = 86)], Entamoeba histolytica [15.8% (n = 65) versus 1.9% (n = 8)] and A. lumbricoides [64.1% (n = 263) versus 50.7% (n = 208)]). Among the different variables assessed in the study, age of 4 to 5 years (AOR = 4.61; 95% CI, (1.35-15.77)) and primary and secondary educational level of the mother (AOR = 12.59; 95% CI, (2.76-57.47); AOR = 9.17; 95% CI, (2.12-39.71), respectively) were significantly associated with IPIs. Children drinking untreated water was associated with infestation with G. intestinalis (AOR = 1.85; 95% CI, (1.1-3.09)) and E. histolytica (AOR = 1.9; 95% CI, (1.07-3.38)). E. histolytica was also associated with moderately stunted children (AOR = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.2-0.71). Similarly, children aged between 4 and 5 years (AOR = 3.2; 95% CI (2.04-5.01)) and living on noncemented soil types (AOR = 1.85; 95% CI, (1.18-2.09)) were associated with T. trichiura infestation.Conclusions/significanceThe prevalence of IPIs is substantial in the studied areas in both stunted and control children, despite the large-scale drug administration of antiparasitic drugs in the country. This high prevalence of IPIs warrants further investigation. Improved health education, environmental sanitation and quality of water sources should be provided.

BackgroundA higher caseload of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been observed among males in community-based surveys. We carried out this review to investigate how the observed disparity in gender distribution is reflected in clinical trials of antileishmanial therapies.MethodsWe identified relevant studies by searching a database of all published clinical trials in VL from 1980 through 2019 indexed in the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) VL clinical trials library. The proportion of male participants enrolled in studies eligible for inclusion in this review were extracted and combined using random effects meta-analysis of proportion. Results were expressed as percentages and presented with respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Heterogeneity was quantified using I2 statistics and sub-group meta-analyses were carried out to explore the sources of heterogeneity.ResultsWe identified 135 published studies (1980-2019; 32,177 patients) with 68.0% [95% CI: 65.9%-70.0%; I2 = 92.6%] of the enrolled participants being males. The corresponding estimates were 67.6% [95% CI: 65.5%-69.7%; n = 91 trials; I2 = 90.5%; 24,218 patients] in studies conducted in the Indian sub-continent and 74.1% [95% CI: 68.4%-79.1%; n = 24 trials; I2 = 94.4%; 6,716 patients] in studies from Eastern Africa. The proportion of male participants was 57.9% [95% CI: 54.2%-61.5%] in studies enrolling children aged ConclusionsTwo-thirds of the participants enrolled in clinical studies in VL conducted in the past 40 years were males, though the imbalance was less in children and in more recent trials. VL treatment guidelines are informed by the knowledge of treatment outcomes from a population that is heavily skewed towards adult males. Investigators planning future studies should consider this fact and ensure approaches for more gender-balanced inclusion.

BackgroundOral ivermectin is a safe broad spectrum anthelminthic used for treating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Currently, ivermectin use is contraindicated in children weighing less than 15 kg, restricting access to this drug for the treatment of NTDs. Here we provide an updated systematic review of the literature and we conducted an individual-level patient data (IPD) meta-analysis describing the safety of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg.Methodology/principal findingsA systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) for IPD guidelines by searching MEDLINE via PubMed, Web of Science, Ovid Embase, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, TOXLINE for all clinical trials, case series, case reports, and database entries for reports on the use of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg that were published between 1 January 1980 to 25 October 2019. The protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42017056515. A total of 3,730 publications were identified, 97 were selected for potential inclusion, but only 17 sources describing 15 studies met the minimum criteria which consisted of known weights of children less than 15 kg linked to possible adverse events, and provided comprehensive IPD. A total of 1,088 children weighing less than 15 kg were administered oral ivermectin for one of the following indications: scabies, mass drug administration for scabies control, crusted scabies, cutaneous larva migrans, myiasis, pthiriasis, strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, and parasitic disease of unknown origin. Overall a total of 1.4% (15/1,088) of children experienced 18 adverse events all of which were mild and self-limiting. No serious adverse events were reported.Conclusions/significanceExisting limited data suggest that oral ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kilograms is safe. Data from well-designed clinical trials are needed to provide further assurance.

BackgroundDespite a historical association with poor tolerability, a comprehensive review on safety of antileishmanial chemotherapies is lacking. We carried out an update of a previous systematic review of all published clinical trials in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) from 1980 to 2019 to document any reported serious adverse events (SAEs).MethodsFor this updated systematic review, we searched the following databases from 1st Jan 2016 through 2nd of May 2019: PUBMED, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane, clinicaltrials.gov, WHO ICTRP, and the Global Index Medicus. We included randomised and non-randomised interventional studies aimed at assessing therapeutic efficacy and extracted the number of SAEs reported within the first 30 days of treatment initiation. The incidence rate of death (IRD) from individual treatment arms were combined in a meta-analysis using random effects Poisson regression.ResultsWe identified 157 published studies enrolling 35,376 patients in 347 treatment arms. Pentavalent antimony was administered in 74 (21.3%), multiple-dose liposomal amphotericin B (L-AmB) in 52 (15.0%), amphotericin b deoxycholate in 51 (14.7%), miltefosine in 33 (9.5%), amphotericin b fat/lipid/colloid/cholesterol in 31 (8.9%), and single-dose L-AmB in 17 (4.9%) arms. There was a total of 804 SAEs reported of which 793 (including 428 deaths) were extracted at study arm level (11 SAEs were reported at study level only). During the first 30 days, there were 285 (66.6%) deaths with the overall IRD estimated at 0.068 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.041-0.114; I2 = 81.4%; 95% prediction interval (PI): 0.001-2.779] per 1,000 person-days at risk; the rate was 0.628 [95% CI: 0.368-1.021; I2 = 82.5%] in Eastern Africa, and 0.041 [95% CI: 0.021-0.081; I2 = 68.1%] in the Indian Subcontinent. In 21 study arms which clearly indicated allowing the inclusion of patients with HIV co-infections the IRD was 0.575 [95% CI: 0.244-1.355; I2 = 91.9%] compared to 0.043 [95% CI: 0.020-0.090; I2 = 62.5%] in 160 arms which excluded HIV co-infections.ConclusionMortality within the first 30 days of VL treatment initiation was a rarely reported event in clinical trials with an overall estimated rate of 0.068 deaths per 1,000 person-days at risk, though it varied across regions and patient populations. These estimates may serve as a benchmark for future trials against which mortality data from prospective and pharmacovigilance studies can be compared. The methodological limitations exposed by our review support the need to assemble individual patient data (IPD) to conduct robust IPD meta-analyses and generate stronger evidence from existing trials to support treatment guidelines and guide future research.