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Objectives: Biological treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is one of the cornerstones of current treatment strategies for the disease. Surprisingly little information exists on whether the route of administration affects patients’ treatment satisfaction. It is equally unclear whether rheumatologists are able to accurately perceive their patients’ appreciation. Thus, the Belgian Be-raise survey aimed to examine whether RA patient’s experience of their current biological treatment coincided with the treating physician’s perception. Methods: A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted by 67 Belgian rheumatologists providing data obtained from 550 RA patients. Patients under stable dose of biologics for at least 6 months, were enrolled consecutively and all completed questionnaires. Separate questionnaires were completed by the treating rheumatologist which evaluated their patient’s perception of the route of treatment administration. This study therefore evaluates whether a treating physician perceives the satisfaction with the route of administration to the same degree as the patient. Results: Completed questionnaires were obtained from 293 and 257 patients who obtained treatment via the intravenous (IV) or subcutaneous (SC) route of administration, respectively. 58.4% of patients were in DAS28-CRP(3) remission. Patient satisfaction with disease control was higher (44% scored ≥ 9) than that of the treating physician (35%), regardless of the route of administration (p< 0.01). No differences were seen for the patients treated with an IV as opposed to a SC route of administration. The physician´s perception of patient’s satisfaction with disease control was markedly lower for IV treated patients as opposed to SC treated patients (p< 0.001). Conclusions: Patients’ satisfaction with biological treatment is high, but there is a considerable mismatch between patients´ and rheumatologists´ appreciation on the route of administration of biological therapy in RA. Physicians consistently consider IV biological therapy to be less satisfactory. Patient´s appreciation is largely dependent on disease control, irrespective of the route of administration. Therefore, and encouraging shared decision making, we suggest that physicians and patients discuss the route of administration of biologicals in an open way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth system models are essential tools for understanding the impacts of a warming world, particularly on the contribution of polar ice sheets to sea level change. However, current models lack full coupling of the ice sheets to the ocean and are typically run at a coarse resolution (1 ∘ grid spacing or coarser). Coarse spatial resolution is particularly a problem over Antarctica, where sub-grid-scale orography is well-known to influence precipitation fields, and glacier models require high-resolution atmospheric inputs. This resolution limitation has been partially addressed by regional climate models (RCMs), which must be forced at their lateral and ocean surface boundaries by (usually coarser) global atmospheric datasets, However, RCMs fail to capture the two-way coupling between the regional domain and the global climate system. Conversely, running high-spatial-resolution models globally is computationally expensive and can produce vast amounts of data. Alternatively, variable-resolution grids can retain the benefits of high resolution over a specified domain without the computational costs of running at a high resolution globally. Here we evaluate a historical simulation of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) implementing the spectral element (SE) numerical dynamical core (VR-CESM2) with an enhanced-horizontal-resolution (0.25 ∘) grid over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the surrounding Southern Ocean; the rest of the global domain is on the standard 1 ∘ grid. We compare it to 1 ∘ model runs of CESM2 using both the SE dynamical core and the standard finite-volume (FV) dynamical core, both with identical physics and forcing, including prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations from observations. Our evaluation reveals both improvements and degradations in VR-CESM2 performance relative to the 1 ∘ CESM2. Surface mass balance estimates are slightly higher but within 1 standard deviation of the ensemble mean, except for over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is impacted by better-resolved surface topography. Temperature and wind estimates are improved over both the near surface and aloft, although the overall correction of a cold bias (within the 1 ∘ CESM2 runs) has resulted in temperatures which are too high over the interior of the ice sheet. The major degradations include the enhancement of surface melt as well as excessive cloud liquid water over the ocean, with resultant impacts on the surface radiation budget. Despite these changes, VR-CESM2 is a valuable tool for the analysis of precipitation and surface mass balance and thus constraining estimates of sea level rise associated with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice sheet surface mass balance describes the net snow accumulation at the ice sheet surface. On the Antarctic ice sheet, winds redistribute snow, resulting in a surface mass balance that is variable in both space and time. Representing wind-driven snow redistribution processes in models is critical for local assessments of surface mass balance, repeat altimetry studies, and interpretation of ice core accumulation records. To this end, we have adapted Alpine3D, an existing distributed snow modeling framework, to downscale Antarctic surface mass balance to horizontal resolutions up to 1 km. In particular, we have introduced a new two-dimensional advection-based wind-driven snow redistribution module that is driven by an offline coupling between WindNinja, a wind downscaling model, and Alpine3D. We then show that large accumulation variability can be at least partially explained by terrain-induced wind speed variations which subsequently redistribute snow around rolling topography. By comparing Alpine3D to airborne-derived snow accumulation measurements within a testing domain over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, we demonstrate that our Alpine3D downscaling approach improves surface mass balance estimates when compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), a global atmospheric reanalysis which we use as atmospheric forcing. In particular, when compared to MERRA-2, Alpine3D reduces simulated surface mass balance root mean squared error by 23.4 mmw.e.yr-1 (13 %) and increases variance explained by 24 %. Despite these improvements, our results demonstrate that considerable uncertainty stems from the employed saltation model, confounding simulations of surface mass balance variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet contributes significantly to present sea level rise. High meltwater runoff is responsible for half of Greenland's mass loss. Surface melt has been spreading and intensifying in Greenland, with the highest ever surface area melt and runoff recorded in 2012. However, how surface melt water reaches the ocean, and how fast it does so, is poorly understood. Firn-partially compacted snow from previous years-potentially has the capacity to store significant amounts of melt water in liquid or frozen form, and thus delay its contribution to sea level. Here we present direct observations from ground and airborne radar, as well as ice cores, of liquid water within firn in the southern Greenland ice sheet. We find a substantial amount of water in this firn aquifer that persists throughout the winter, when snow accumulation and melt rates are high. This represents a previously unknown storage mode for water within the ice sheet. We estimate, using a regional climate model, aquifer area at about 70,000 km2 and the depth to the top of the water table as 5-50 m. The perennial firn aquifer could be important for estimates of ice sheet mass and energy budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate quantification of surface snow accumulation over Antarctica is a key constraint for estimates of the Antarctic mass balance, as well as climatic interpretations of ice-core records. Over Antarctica, near-surface winds accelerate down relatively steep surface slopes, eroding and sublimating the snow. This wind scour results in numerous localized regions (≤200 km2) with reduced surface accumulation. Estimates of Antarctic surface mass balance rely on sparse point measurements or coarse atmospheric models that do not capture these local processes, and overestimate the net mass input in wind-scour zones. Here we combine airborne radar observations of unconformable stratigraphic layers with lidar-derived surface roughness measurements to identify extensive wind-scour zones over Dome A, in the interior of East Antarctica. The scour zones are persistent because they are controlled by bedrock topography. On the basis of our Dome A observations, we develop an empirical model to predict wind-scour zones across the Antarctic continent and find that these zones are predominantly located in East Antarctica. We estimate that ∼ 2.7-6.6% of the surface area of Antarctica has persistent negative net accumulation due to wind scour, which suggests that, across the continent, the snow mass input is overestimated by 11-36.5 Gt yr−1 in present surface-mass-balance calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A continental scale evaluation of Antarctic surface winds is presented from global ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT regional climate model at 55 and 27 km horizontal resolution, based on a comparison with observational data from 115 automatic weather stations (AWS). The Antarctic surface wind climate can be classified based on the Weibull shape factor k. Very high values ( k > 3) are found in the interior plateaus, typical of very uniform katabatic-dominated winds with high directional constancy. In the coast and all over the Antarctic Peninsula the shape factors are similar to the ones found in mid-latitudes ( k < 3) typical of synoptically dominated wind climates. The Weibull shape parameter is systematically overpredicted by ERA reanalyses. This is partly corrected by RACMO2/ANT simulations which introduce more wind speed variability in complex terrain areas. A significant improvement is observed in the performance of ERA-Interim over ERA-40, with an overall decrease of 14 % in normalized mean absolute error. In escarpment and coastal areas, where the terrain gets rugged and katabatic winds are further intensified in confluence zones, ERA-Interim bias can be as high as 10 m s. These large deviations are partly corrected by the regional climate model. Given that RACMO2/ANT is an independent simulation of the near-surface wind speed climate, as it is not driven by observations, it compares very well to the ERA-Interim and AWS-115 datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA (GS) Antarctic accumulation monitoring network, which extends from the coast of Adelie Land to the Antarctic plateau, has been surveyed annually since 2004. The network includes a 156-km stake-line from the coast inland, along which accumulation shows high spatial and interannual variability with a mean value of 362 mm water equivalent a. In this paper, this accumulation is compared with older accumulation reports from between 1971 and 1991. The mean and annual standard deviation and the km-scale spatial pattern of accumulation were seen to be very similar in the older and more recent data. The data did not reveal any significant accumulation trend over the last 40 years. The ECMWF analysis-based forecasts (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim), a stretched-grid global general circulation model (LMDZ4) and three regional circulation models (PMM5, MAR and RACMO2), all with high resolution over Antarctica (27-125 km), were tested against the GS reports. They qualitatively reproduced the meso-scale spatial pattern of the annual-mean accumulation except MAR. MAR significantly underestimated mean accumulation, while LMDZ4 and RACMO2 overestimated it. ERA-40 and the regional models that use ERA-40 as lateral boundary condition qualitatively reproduced the chronology of interannual variability but underestimated the magnitude of interannual variations. Two widely used climatologies for Antarctic accumulation agreed well with the mean GS data. The model-based climatology was also able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern. These data thus provide new stringent constraints on models and other large-scale evaluations of the Antarctic accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until quite recently, the mass balance (MB) of the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica was poorly known and often treated as a residual in the budget of oceanic mass and sea level change. Recent developments in regional climate modelling and remote sensing, especially altimetry, gravimetry and InSAR feature tracking, have enabled us to specifically resolve the ice sheet mass balance components at a near-annual timescale. The results reveal significant mass losses for both ice sheets, caused by the acceleration of marine-terminating glaciers in southeast, west and northwest Greenland and coastal West Antarctica, and increased run-off in Greenland. At the same time, the data show that interannual variability is very significant, masking the underlying trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A surface energy balance model is forced by 13 years of high-quality hourly observations from the Antarctic coastal station Neumayer. The model accurately reproduces observed surface temperatures. Surface sublimation is significant in summer, when absorbed solar radiation heats the surface. Including a first order estimate of snowdrift sublimation in the calculation more than triples the total sublimation, removing 19% of the solid precipitation, indicating that snowdrift sublimation is potentially important for the mass balance of Antarctic ice shelves. Surface melt occurs at Neumayer in all summers, but all the meltwater refreezes. In two-thirds of the cases, the refreezing is quasi-instantaneous (within the model timestep of 6 min), so that no liquid water remains in the snow. For all other events, the occurrence of liquid water in the snowpack at Neumayer agrees well with satellite-based liquid water detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ce sheets gain mass via snow accumulation at the ice sheet surface, which is the primary component of surface mass balance. On the Antarctic ice sheet, winds redistribute snow resulting in surface mass balance that is variable in both space and time. Representing wind-driven snow redistribution processes in models is critical for local assessments of surface mass balance, repeat altimetry studies, and interpretation of ice core accumulation records. To this end, we have adapted Alpine3D, an existing distributed snow modeling framework, to downscale Antarctic surface mass balance to horizontal resolutions up to 1 km. In particular, we have introduced a new two-dimensional advection-based wind-driven snow redistribution module that is driven by an offline coupling between WindNinja, a wind downscaling model, and Alpine3D. We then show that large accumulation variability can be at least partially explained by terrain-induced wind speed variations which subsequently redistribute snow around rolling topography. By comparing Alpine3D to airborne-derived snow accumulation measurements within a testing domain over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, we demonstrate that our Alpine3D downscaling approach improves surface mass balance estimates when compared to MERRA-2, a global atmospheric reanalysis which we use as atmospheric forcing. In particular, when compared to MERRA-2, Alpine3D reduces simulated surface mass balance root mean squared error by 23.4 mm w.e. yr-1 (13 %) and increases variance explained by 24 %. Despite these improvements, Alpine3D still underestimates observed accumulation variability, thus providing an opportunity for future model improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although precipitation is a primary control on Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass balance, long‐term historical AIS precipitation trends and their underlying external climate drivers remain inconclusive. In this study, we use a novel pair of climate model ensembles to identify a simulated spatial signature of ozone depletion‐forced AIS precipitation change. Distinct areas of little change or precipitation decrease, arising from interaction between ozone depletion‐forced atmospheric circulation changes and ice sheet topography, are outweighed by large‐scale precipitation increases. This signature bears notable similarities to a new ice core‐based reconstruction of AIS accumulation change and yields a significant increase in annual integrated precipitation (38 ± 10 Gt/year over the 1986–2005 period or 51 ± 11 Gt/year over the 1991–2005 period). Remarkably, this simulated ozone depletion‐forced precipitation change is of a similar absolute magnitude to recent observed AIS mass loss trends and as a consequence, it may play a role in dampening recent AIS sea level rise contributions. Plain Language Summary: Stratospheric ozone depletion, also known as the ozone hole, has started in the 1970s and, despite a slow recovery, thanks to the Montréal protocol, will continue well into the 21st century. Previous studies have shown that ozone depletion not only enhances ultraviolet radiation at the surface but also affects weather patterns and sea ice on the Southern Ocean, north of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, a key question still remains: What is the impact of ozone depletion on Antarctic climate, and particularly precipitation? This is important, because the changes in Antarctic precipitation regulates the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. In this work, we compare two series of climate model simulations, one with a ozone hole prescribed and one without, to suggest that the ozone hole leads to a substantial increase in Antarctic precipitation. This increase is driven by a shift in weather patterns that bring snowfall onto the ice sheet. The total estimated increase of precipitation on the Antarctic ice sheet is of the same order of magnitude than its current mass loss, suggesting that Antarctic mass loss during the period 1992–2005 would have been roughly twice as much without the ozone hole. Key Points: The net effect of stratospheric ozone depletion is to increase Antarctic ice sheet‐integrated precipitation, mitigating sea level riseDriven by changes in large‐scale atmospheric dynamics, the ozone‐forced change in Antarctic precipitation varies strongly regionallyThe signature of ozone depletion on Antarctic precipitation shows similarity with observed accumulation trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

About 20 % of all snow accumulation in Antarctica occurs on the ice shelves. There, ice rises control the spatial surface mass balance (SMB) distribution by inducing snowfall variability and wind erosion due to their topography. Moreover these ice rises buttress the ice flow and represent ideal drilling locations for ice cores. In this study we assess the connection between snowfall variability and wind erosion to provide a better understanding of how ice rises impact SMB variability, how well this is captured in the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 and the implications of this SMB variability for ice rises as an ice core drilling site. By combining ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles from two ice rises in Dronning Maud Land with ice core dating, we reconstruct spatial and temporal SMB variations from 1983 to 2018 and compare the observed SMB with output from RACMO2 and SnowModel. Our results show snowfall-driven differences of up to 1.5 times higher SMB on the windward side of both ice rises than on the leeward side as well as a local erosion-driven minimum at the ice divide of the ice rises. RACMO2 captures the snowfall-driven differences but overestimates their magnitude, whereas the erosion on the peak can be reproduced by SnowModel with RACMO2 forcing. Observed temporal variability of the average SMBs, retrieved from the GPR data for four time intervals in the 1983–2018 range, are low at the peak of the easternmost ice rise (∼0.06 mw.e.yr-1), while they are higher (∼0.09 mw.e.yr-1) on the windward side of the ice rise. This implies that at the peak of the ice rise, higher snowfall, driven by orographic uplift, is balanced out by local erosion. As a consequence of this, the SMB recovered from the ice core matches the SMB from the GPR at the peak of the ice rise but not at the windward side of the ice rise, suggesting that the SMB signal is damped in the ice core. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing precipitation on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has the potential to partially mitigate Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise. We show that a simple, physically motivated change to the shallow convective cloud phase in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)—improving a long-standing bias in shortwave cloud forcing over the Southern Ocean—leads to an enhanced response of precipitation when the model is forced with realistic stratospheric ozone depletion, with other radiative forcing remaining constant. We analyze two ozone-forced ensemble experiments with the CESM version 1.1: one using the standard version of the model and the other using the cloud-modified version. The standard version exhibits a precipitation increase on the AIS of 34 gigatons year−1; the cloud-modified version shows an increase of 109 Gt year−1. The cloud-modified version shows a more robust, year-round poleward shift in the westerly jet and storm tracks, which brings more precipitation to the AIS, compared to the standard version. Greater surface warming and larger-amplitude stationary waves further increase the Antarctic precipitation response. The enhanced warming in the cloud-modified version is explained by larger positive shortwave cloud feedbacks, while the enhanced poleward jet shift is associated with a stronger meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere—lower stratosphere. These results illustrate (1) the sensitivity of forced changes in Antarctic precipitation to the mean state of a climate model and (2) the strong role of atmospheric dynamics in driving that forced precipitation response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ∘ C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 ∘ N, 15 ∘ N, 15 ∘ S, and 30 ∘ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ∘ C vs. 2.0 ∘ C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the year 2000, Greenland ice sheet mass loss has been dominated by a decrease in surface mass balance rather than an increase in solid ice discharge. Southeast Greenland is an important region to understand how high accumulation rates can offset increasing Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff. To that end, we derive a new 9-year long dataset (2009–17) of accumulation rates in Southeast Greenland using NASA Operation IceBridge snow radar. Our accumulation dataset derived from internal layers focuses on high elevations (1500–3000 m) because at lower elevations meltwater percolation obscured internal layer structure. The uncertainty of the radar-derived accumulation rates is 11% [using Firn Densification Model (FDM) density profiles] and the average accumulation rate ranges from 0.5 to 1.2 m w.e. With our observations spanning almost a decade, we find large inter-annual variability, but no significant trend. Accumulation rates are compared with output from two regional climate models (RCMs), MAR and RACMO2. This comparison shows that the models are underestimating accumulation in Southeast Greenland and the models misrepresent spatial heterogeneity due to an orographically forced bias in snowfall near the coast. Our dataset is useful to fill in temporal and spatial data gaps, and to evaluate RCMs where few in situ measurements are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50 ∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr -1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr -1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr -1 , is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr -1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modeling of ice sheets in Earth system models (ESMs) is an active area of research with applications to future sea level rise projections and paleoclimate studies. A major challenge for surface mass balance (SMB) modeling with ESMs arises from their coarse resolution. This paper evaluates the elevation class (EC) method as an SMB downscaling alternative to the dynamical downscaling of regional climate models. To this end, we compare EC-simulated elevation-dependent surface energy and mass balance gradients from the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) with those from the regional climate model RACMO2.3. The EC implementation in CESM1.0 combines prognostic snow albedo, a multilayer snow model, and elevation corrections for two atmospheric forcing variables: temperature and humidity. Despite making no corrections for incoming radiation and precipitation, we find that the EC method in CESM1.0 yields similar SMB gradients to RACMO2.3, in part due to compensating biases in snowfall, surface melt, and refreezing gradients. We discuss the sensitivity of the results to the lapse rate used for the temperature correction. We also evaluate the impact of the EC method on the climate simulated by the ESM and find minor cooling over the Greenland ice sheet and Barents and Greenland seas, which compensates for a warm bias in the ESM due to topographic smoothing. Based on our diagnostic procedure to evaluate the EC method, we make several recommendations for future implementations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose new testbed model experiments for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) that are designed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C above 1850-1900 conditions using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG). The new modeling experiments use the overshoot scenario defined in CMIP6 (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario and are designed to reduce side effects of SAG in reaching three temperature targets: global mean surface temperature, and inter-hemispheric and pole-to-equator surface temperature gradients. We further compare results to another SAG simulation using a high emission scenario (SSP5-85) as a baseline scenario in order to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset different amounts of warming by SAG. The new testbed simulations are performed with the CESM2(WACCM6). We use a feedback algorithm that identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four predefined latitudes, 30° N, 15° N, 15° S, and 30° S, to reach the three temperature targets. Here we analyze climate variables and quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts. We find that changes from present day conditions (2015-2025) in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 °C vs 2.0 °C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea-level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of the experiments proposed here would help identify consequences of scenarios that include strong mitigation, carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application, on societal impacts and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) firn layer buffers the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise by storing meltwater in its pore space. However, available pore space and meltwater retention capability is lost due to ablation of the firn layer and refreezing of meltwater as near-surface ice slabs in the firn. Understanding how firn properties respond to climate is important for constraining the GrIS's future contribution to sea level rise in a warming climate. Observations of firn density provide detailed information about firn properties, but they are spatially and temporally limited. Here we use two firn models, the physics-based SNOWPACK model and the Community Firn Model configured with a semi-empirical densification equation (CFM-GSFC), to quantify firn properties across the GrIS from 1980 through 2020. We use an identical forcing (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis) for SNOWPACK and the CFM-GSFC in order to isolate firn model differences. To evaluate the models, we compare simulated firn properties, including firn air content (FAC), to measurements from the Surface Mass Balance and Snow on Sea Ice Working Group (SUMup) dataset of snow and firn density. Both models perform well (mean absolute percentage errors of 14 % in SNOWPACK and 16 % in the CFM-GSFC), though their performance is hindered by the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing. In the ice-sheet-wide simulations, the 1980–1995 average spatially integrated FAC (i.e., air volume in the firn) for the upper 100 m is 34 645 km 3 from SNOWPACK and 28 581 km 3 from the CFM-GSFC. The discrepancy in the magnitude of the modeled FAC stems from differences in densification with depth and variations in the sensitivity of the models to atmospheric forcing. In more recent years (2005–2020), both models simulate substantial depletion of pore space. During this period, the spatially integrated FAC across the entire GrIS decreases by 3.2 % (-66.6 km 3 yr -1) in SNOWPACK and 1.5 % (-17.4 km 3 yr -1) in the CFM-GSFC. These differing magnitudes demonstrate how model differences propagate throughout the FAC record. Over the full modeled record (1980–2020), SNOWPACK simulates a loss of pore space equivalent to 3 mm of sea level rise buffering, while the CFM-GSFC simulates a loss of 1 mm. The greatest depletion in FAC is along the margins and especially along the western margin where observations and models show the formation of near-surface, low-permeability ice slabs that may inhibit meltwater storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]