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Humans experience many influenza infections over their lives, resulting in complex and varied immunological histories. Although experimental and quantitative analyses have improved our understanding of the immunological processes defining an individual's antibody repertoire, how these within-host processes are linked to population-level influenza epidemiology in humans remains unclear. Here, we used a multilevel mathematical model to jointly infer antibody dynamics and individual-level lifetime influenza A/H3N2 infection histories for 1,130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, using 67,683 haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay measurements against 20 A/H3N2 strains from repeat serum samples collected between 2009 and 2015. These estimated infection histories allowed us to reconstruct historical seasonal influenza patterns in humans and to investigate how influenza incidence varies over time, space, and age in this population. We estimated median annual influenza infection rates to be approximately 19% from 1968 to 2015, but with substantial variation between years; 88% of individuals were estimated to have been infected at least once during the study period (2009 to 2015), and 20% were estimated to have 3 or more infections in that time. We inferred decreasing infection rates with increasing age, and found that annual attack rates were highly correlated across all locations, regardless of their distance, suggesting that age has a stronger impact than fine-scale spatial effects in determining an individual's antibody profile. Finally, we reconstructed each individual's expected antibody profile over their lifetime and inferred an age-stratified relationship between probability of infection and HI titre. Our analyses show how multi-strain serological panels provide rich information on long-term epidemiological trends, within-host processes, and immunity when analysed using appropriate inference methods, and adds to our understanding of the life course epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2.

We estimated COVID-19 transmission potential and case burden by variant type in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada, during January 23, 2020–January 27, 2022; we also estimated the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce transmission. We estimated time-varying reproduction number (Rt) over 7-day sliding windows and nonoverlapping time-windows determined by timing of policy changes. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for each variant and compared rates to determine differences in burden among provinces. Rt corresponding with emergence of the Delta variant increased in all 3 provinces; British Columbia had the largest increase, 43.85% (95% credible interval [CrI] 40.71%–46.84%). Across the study period, IRR was highest for Omicron (8.74 [95% CrI 8.71–8.77]) and burden highest in Alberta (IRR 1.80 [95% CrI 1.79–1.81]). Initiating public health interventions was associated with lower Rt and relaxing restrictions and emergence of new variants associated with increases in Rt.

Study Design: Retrospective study. Purpose: To investigate the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic implant failure in spinal metastasis surgery and identify potential risk factors. Overview of Literature: Surgical stabilization with instrumentation is an established method for the treatment of spinal metastasis. However, very few studies have investigated the incidence and risk factors for implant failure after spinal instrumentation surgery for the treatment of spinal metastasis. Methods: This study recruited 88 patients who received surgical stabilization with instrumentation for the treatment of spinal metastasis. Their medical records and postoperative X-rays were reviewed for evidence of implant failure. Statistical analysis with logistic regression was performed to assess nine potential risk factors for the development of implant failure, including patient's age at operation, gender, survival, primary tumor, spinal level involved, construct length, decompression levels, fusion material utilization, and radiotherapy application either before or after surgery, to identify potential contributing risk factors. Results: Implant failure was identified in nine out of 88 cases (10.2%) with two cases requiring implant removal: one case included a progressive kyphosis that resulted in nonhealing sore and the other involved a deep-seated wound infection that spread to the implants. Another case required wound debridement due to superficial wound infection. The remaining six cases were asymptomatic, despite postoperative X-rays demonstrating evidence of implant failure. No patient required implant revision. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that patients who received radiotherapy either before or after surgery were less likely to develop implant failure. Conclusions: The development of radiological implant failure following surgical treatment of spinal metastasis is common. However, symptomatic implant failure leading to revision surgery is uncommon. Our findings suggest that radiotherapy, either before or after spinal surgery, is not associated with the development of implant failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Aspirin is commonly used for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and stroke. Controversy exists concerning whether and when is the optimal time to stop aspirin before spinal surgery. Previous studies on this topic mainly focused on patients who received thoracolumbar spine surgeries. There are only a few literatures concerning the safety of aspirin use in cervical spine surgery patients. Methods: This pilot study recruited patients who received cervical laminoplasty from January 2010 to December 2021. The operation time, intraoperative blood loss, and postoperative complications of the patients who had taken aspirin during the perioperative period were compared with age, sex, and comorbidity-matched control patients. Propensity score matching was utilized in the selection of control to minimize bias. Results: Twenty-one patients who have received cervical laminoplasty while taking aspirin during the perioperative period were included. The control group included 21 age, sex, and comorbidity-matched patients who have not taken aspirin. The operation time and intraoperative and postoperative blood loss were higher in patients taking aspirin but were not statistically significant. There was no statistically significant difference in the wound infection rate. No case of epidural hematoma was found. Conclusions: In patients undergoing cervical laminoplasty, a continuation of aspirin is safe and does not increase the difficulty of the surgery, wound complication, or hemorrhage.

Abstract Background In addition to high vaccination levels, COVID-19 control requires uptake and continued adherence to personal hygiene and social distancing behaviors. It is unclear whether residents of a city with successive experience in worldwide pandemics such as SARS, would quickly adopt and maintain preventive behaviors. Methods A population-based, longitudinal telephone survey was conducted between in first local wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020) and third local wave (December 2020) (n = 403). The study examined factors associated with personal hygiene and social distancing behavior fatigue, as measured by reduced adherence. Results Over 9 months, face mask use increased (96.5–100%, p

Residents in residential care homes for the elderly (RCHEs) are at high risk of severe illnesses and mortality, while staff have high exposure to intimate care activities. Addressing vaccine hesitancy is crucial to safeguard vaccine uptake in this vulnerable setting, especially amid a pandemic. In response to this, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to measure the level of vaccine hesitancy and to examine its associated factors among residents and staff in RCHEs in Hong Kong. We recruited residents and staff from 31 RCHEs in July–November 2022. Of 204 residents, 9.8% had a higher level of vaccine hesitancy (scored ≥ 4 out of 7, mean = 2.44). Around 7% of the staff (n = 168) showed higher vaccine hesitancy (mean = 2.45). From multi-level regression analyses, higher social loneliness, higher anxiety, poorer cognitive ability, being vaccinated with fewer doses, and lower institutional vaccination rates predicted residents’ vaccine hesitancy. Similarly, higher emotional loneliness, higher anxiety, being vaccinated with fewer doses, and working in larger RCHEs predicted staff’s vaccine hesitancy. Although the reliance on self-report data and convenience sampling may hamper the generalizability of the results, this study highlighted the importance of addressing the loneliness of residents and staff in RCHEs to combat vaccine hesitancy. Innovative and technology-aided interventions are needed to build social support and ensure social interactions among the residents and staff, especially amid outbreaks.

Introduction: Two years into the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, populations with less built-up immunity continued to devise ways to optimize social distancing measures (SDMs) relaxation levels for outbreaks triggered by SARS-CoV-2 and its variants to resume minimal economics activities while avoiding hospital system collapse. Method: An age-stratified compartmental model featuring social mixing patterns was first fitted the incidence data in second wave in Hong Kong. Hypothetical scenario analysis was conducted by varying population mobility and vaccination coverages (VCs) to predict the number of hospital and intensive-care unit admissions in outbreaks initiated by ancestral strain and its variants (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron). Scenarios were “unsustainable” if either of admissions was larger than the maximum of its occupancy. Results: At VC of 65%, scenarios of full SDMs relaxation (mean daily social encounters prior to COVID-19 pandemic = 14.1 contacts) for outbreaks triggered by ancestral strain, Alpha and Beta were sustainable. Restricting levels of SDMs was required such that the optimal population mobility had to be reduced to 0.9, 0.65 and 0.37 for Gamma, Delta and Omicron associated outbreaks respectively. VC improvement from 65% to 75% and 95% allowed complete SDMs relaxation in Gamma-, and Delta-driven epidemic respectively. However, this was not supported for Omicron-triggered epidemic. Discussion: To seek a path to normality, speedy vaccine and booster distribution to the majority across all age groups is the first step. Gradual or complete SDMs lift could be considered if the hybrid immunity could be achieved due to high vaccination coverage and natural infection rate among vaccinated or the COVID-19 case fatality rate could be reduced similar to that for seasonal influenza to secure hospital system sustainability.

Abstract Background Despite clear evidence of benefits in acute-care hospitals, controversy over the effectiveness of IPC measures for MDROs is perceptible and evidence-based practice has not been established. Objective To investigate the effects of IPC interventions on MDRO colonization and infections in LTCFs. Data sources Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL from inception to September 2020. Eligibility criteria Original and peer-reviewed articles examining the post-intervention effects on MDRO colonization and infections in LTCFs. Interventions (i) Horizontal interventions: administrative engagement, barrier precautions, education, environmental cleaning, hand hygiene, performance improvement, and source control; and (ii) vertical intervention: active surveillance plus decolonization. Study appraisal and synthesis We employed a random-effects meta-analysis to estimate the pooled risk ratios (pRRs) for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization by intervention duration; and conducted subgroup analyses on different intervention components. Study quality was assessed using Cochrane risk of bias tools. Results Of 3877 studies identified, 19 were eligible for inclusion (eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs)). Studies reported outcomes associated with MRSA (15 studies), vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE) (four studies), Clostridium difficile (two studies), and Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) (two studies). Eleven studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pRRs were close to unity regardless of intervention duration (long: RR 0.81 [95% CI 0.60–1.10]; medium: RR 0.81 [95% CI 0.25–2.68]; short: RR 0.95 [95% CI 0.53–1.69]). Vertical interventions in studies with a small sample size showed significant reductions in MRSA colonization while horizontal interventions did not. All studies involving active administrative engagement reported reductions. The risk of bias was high in all but two studies. Conclusions Our meta-analysis did not show any beneficial effects from IPC interventions on MRSA reductions in LTCFs. Our findings highlight that the effectiveness of interventions in these facilities is likely conditional on resource availability—particularly decolonization and barrier precautions, due to their potential adverse events and uncertain effectiveness. Hence, administrative engagement is crucial for all effective IPC programmes. LTCFs should consider a pragmatic approach to reinforce standard precautions as routine practice and implement barrier precautions and decolonization to outbreak responses only.

Background: Over a life course, human adaptive immunity to antigenically mutable pathogens exhibits competitive and facilitative interactions. We hypothesize that such interactions may lead to cyclic dynamics in immune responses over a lifetime. Methods: To investigate the cyclic behavior, we analyzed hemagglutination inhibition titers against 21 historical influenza A(H3N2) strains spanning 47 years from a cohort in Guangzhou, China, and applied Fourier spectrum analysis. To investigate possible biological mechanisms, we simulated individual antibody profiles encompassing known feedbacks and interactions due to generally recognized immunological mechanisms. Results: We demonstrated a long-term periodicity (about 24 years) in individual antibody responses. The reported cycles were robust to analytic and sampling approaches. Simulations suggested that individual-level cross-reaction between antigenically similar strains likely explains the reported cycle. We showed that the reported cycles are predictable at both individual and birth cohort level and that cohorts show a diversity of phases of these cycles. Phase of cycle was associated with the risk of seroconversion to circulating strains, after accounting for age and pre-existing titers of the circulating strains. Conclusions: Our findings reveal the existence of long-term periodicities in individual antibody responses to A(H3N2). We hypothesize that these cycles are driven by preexisting antibody responses blunting responses to antigenically similar pathogens (by preventing infection and/or robust antibody responses upon infection), leading to reductions in antigen-specific responses over time until individual’s increasing risk leads to an infection with an antigenically distant enough virus to generate a robust immune response. These findings could help disentangle cohort effects from individual-level exposure histories, improve our understanding of observed heterogeneous antibody responses to immunizations, and inform targeted vaccine strategy. Funding: This study was supported by grants from the NIH R56AG048075 (DATC, JL), NIH R01AI114703 (DATC, BY), the Wellcome Trust 200861/Z/16/Z (SR), and 200187/Z/15/Z (SR). This work was also supported by research grants from Guangdong Government HZQB-KCZYZ-2021014 and 2019B121205009 (YG and HZ). DATC, JMR and SR acknowledge support from the National Institutes of Health Fogarty Institute (R01TW0008246). JMR acknowledges support from the Medical Research Council (MR/S004793/1) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N014499/1). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

To access temporal changes in psychobehavioral responses to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, we conducted a 5-round (R1–R5) longitudinal population-based online survey in Hong Kong during January–September 2020. Most respondents reported wearing masks (R1 99.0% to R5 99.8%) and performing hand hygiene (R1 95.8% to R5 97.7%). Perceived COVID-19 severity decreased significantly, from 97.4% (R1) to 77.2% (R5), but perceived self-susceptibility remained high (87.2%–92.8%). Female sex and anxiety were associated with greater adoption of social distancing. Intention to receive COVID-19 vaccines decreased significantly (R4 48.7% to R5 37.6%). Greater anxiety, confidence in vaccine, and collective responsibility and weaker complacency were associated with higher tendency to receive COVID-19 vaccines. Although its generalizability should be assumed with caution, this study helps to formulate health communication strategies and foretells the initial low uptake rate of COVID-19 vaccines, suggesting that social distancing should be maintained in the medium term.

Background: To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods: This study included 1,908,197 confirmed COVID-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented NPIs were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively). Results: The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95% confidence interval, CI) of −15.14% (from −21.79% to −7.93%), −11.40% (from −13.66% to −9.07%), −42.94% (from −44.24% to −41.60%) and −9.26% (from −11.46% to −7.01%) in the Rt of COVID-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of NPIs seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of COVID-19. Conclusion: Our study indicates that NPIs can significantly contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more NPIs should be the strategic priorities for containing COVID-19.

A piezoelectric piezoelectric-metal-cavity (PMC) actuator was reported previously that can exhibit a large flexural displacement. In this paper, a lead-free piezoelectric ceramic was used as a driving element of the PMC actuator. Bi0.5 (Na0.725Ki0.175Li0.1)0.5TiO3 (abbreviated as BNKLT) is a soft-type piezoelectric ceramic with good piezoelectric properties at room temperature. Both the electrical and mechanical properties of the BNKLT PMC actuator were measured. With good piezoelectric coefficients and low density, the BNKLT ceramic has the potential to be used as the driving element of the lead-free actuator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, there is a lack of knowledge about the effects of co-exposures of cannabis, contaminated with pesticides like chlorpyrifos (CPF) and the toxic metabolite CPF-oxon (CPFO). CPF/CPFO residues, and Δ9Tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ9THC), the main component in cannabis, are known to disrupt the endocannabinoid system (eCBS) resulting in neurodevelopmental defects. Although there are in vivo data characterizing CPF/CPFO and Δ9THC, there are mechanistic data gaps and deficiencies. In this study, an investigation of open access CompTox tools and ToxCast/Tox21 data was performed to determine targets relating to the modes of action (MOA) for these compounds and, given the available biological targets, predict points of departure (POD). The main findings were as follows: 1) In vivo PODs for each chemical were from open literature, 2) Concordance between ToxCast/Tox21 assay targets and known targets in the metabolic and eCBS pathways was evaluated, 3) Human Equivalent Administered Dose (EADHuman) PODs showed the High throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) 3 compartment model (3COMP) was more predictive of in vivo PODs than the PBTK model for CPF, CPFO and Δ9THC, 4) Age-adjusted 3COMP HTTK-Pop EADHuman, with CPF and CPFO ToxCast/Tox21 AC50 values as inputs were predictive for ages 0–4 when but not Δ9THC compared to in vivo PODs. 5) Age-related refinements for CPF/CPFO were primarily from ToxCast/Tox21 active hit-calls for nuclear receptors, CYP2B6 and AChE inhibition (CPFO only) associated with the metabolic pathway. Only one assay target (arylhydrocarbon hydroxylase receptor) was common between CPF/CPFO and Δ9THC. While computational refinements may select some sensitive events involved in the metabolic pathways; this is highly dependent on the cytotoxicity limits, availability of metabolic activity in the ToxCast/Tox21 assays and reliability of assay performance. Some uncertainties and data gaps for Δ9THC might be addressed with assays specific to the eCBS. For CPF, assays with appropriate metabolic activation could better represent the toxic pathway.

Genetic mutations can cause life-threatening diseases such as cancers and sickle cell anemia. Gene detection is thus of importance for disease-risk prediction or early diagnosis and treatment. Apart from genetic defects, gene detection techniques can also be applied to gene-related diseases with high risk to human health such as human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. HPV infection has been strongly linked to cervical cancer. To achieve a high-throughput HPV gene detection platform, the flow-through hybridization system appears to be one of the commercialized diagnostic techniques for this purpose. The flow-through hybridization technique is based on a vacuum-guided flow of DNA fragments which is continuously directed toward the oligoprobes that are immobilized on the testing membrane. However, the conventional colorimetric method and signal read-out approach suffers a problem of low sensitivity. On the contrary, fluorescence approaches allow more sensitive detection and broad sensing ranges. In this work, a fluorescent dye HCAP, which possesses aggregation-induced emission (AIE) properties and is responsive to alkaline phosphatase, was developed and applied to the flow-through hybridization platform to achieve HPV genome diagnosis of clinical samples. Also, an automatic membrane reader was constructed based on the AIE-based diagnosis platform which can identify the diagnostic result of patient DNA with a total concordance rate of 100% in the clinical trial.

Hong Kong has a relatively low number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) despite being an international travel hub and despite its proximity to Wuhan, China. This, together with its proximity to the mainland, makes Hong Kong vulnerable to being severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Graph: Figure 2: Number of confirmed imported and local cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong (Jan. 23, 2020, to Apr. 13, 2020) according to the Centre for Health Protection (CHP), Hong Kong. [Extracted from the article]

The endemic threat of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in nursing homes poses a serious and escalating challenge to public health administration in infection control. Nursing homes are considered as major reservoirs for MRSA colonization, with considerable high levels of colonization prevalence. We employed a computation model to evaluate effects of three intervention scenarios on MRSA colonization prevalence rate in nursing homes. Simulations were conducted using a deterministic compartmental model featuring heterogeneous contact matrix between residents and health-care workers (HCWs). Contact parameters were derived from a nursing home survey. Three intervention scenarios were simulated: (1) hand-hygiene compliance by HCWs, (2) screening-and-isolation upon admission, and (3) implementing both interventions at the same time. For every 10% reduction in average contamination duration in HCWs, the estimated average reduction in prevalence rate was 1.29 percentage point compared with the prevalence rate before the intervention was implemented. Screening-and-isolation intervention resulted in an average reduction of 19.04 percentage point in prevalence rate (S.D. = 1.58; 95% CI = 18.90–19.18). In intervention scenario 3, synergistic effects were observed when implementing hand-hygiene compliance by HCWs and screening-and-isolation together. Our results provide evidence showing that implementing multiple interventions together has a synergistic effect on colonization prevalence reduction.

BackgroundMany serologic studies were done during and after the 2009 influenza pandemic, to estimate the cumulative incidence of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infections, but there are few comparative estimates of the incidence of influenza A(H3N2) virus infections during epidemics.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal serologic study in Hong Kong. We collected sera annually and tested samples from 2009-13 by HAI against the A/Perth/16/2009(H3N2) virus, and samples from 2013-15 against the A/Victoria/361/2011(H3N2) virus using the hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay. We estimated the cumulative incidence of infections based on 4-fold or greater rises in HAI titers in consecutive sera.ResultsThere were four major H3N2 epidemics: (1) Aug-Oct 2010; (2) Mar-Jun 2012; (3) Jul-Oct 2013; and (4) Jun-Jul 2014. Between 516 and 619 relevant pairs of sera were available for each epidemic. We estimated that 9%, 19%, 7% and 7% of the population were infected in each epidemic, respectively, with higher incidence in children in epidemics 1 and 4.ConclusionsWe found that re-infections in each of the four H3N2 epidemics that occurred from 2010 through 2014 were rare. The largest H3N2 epidemic occurred with the lowest level of pre-epidemic immunity.

Variability in the risk of transmission for respiratory pathogens can result from several factors, including the intrinsic properties of the pathogen, the immune state of the host and the host's behaviour. It has been proposed that self-reported social mixing patterns can explain the behavioural component of this variability, with simulated intervention studies based on these data used routinely to inform public health policy. However, in the absence of robust studies with biological endpoints for individuals, it is unclear how age and social behaviour contribute to infection risk. To examine how the structure and nature of social contacts influenced infection risk over the course of a single epidemic, we designed a flexible disease modelling framework: the population was divided into a series of increasingly detailed age and social contact classes, with the transmissibility of each age-contact class determined by the average contacts of that class. Fitting the models to serologically confirmed infection data from the 2009 Hong Kong influenza A/H1N1p pandemic, we found that an individual's risk of infection was influenced strongly by the average reported social mixing behaviour of their age group, rather than by their personal reported contacts. We also identified the resolution of social mixing that shaped transmission: epidemic dynamics were driven by intense contacts between children, a post-childhood drop in risky contacts and a subsequent rise in contacts for individuals aged 35-50. Our results demonstrate that self-reported social contact surveys can account for age-associated heterogeneity in the transmission of a respiratory pathogen in humans, and show robustly how these individual-level behaviours manifest themselves through assortative age groups. Our results suggest it is possible to profile the social structure of different populations and to use these aggregated data to predict their inherent transmission potential.

BackgroundWhile patterns of incidence of clinical influenza have been well described, much uncertainty remains over patterns of incidence of infection. The 2009 pandemic provided both the motivation and opportunity to investigate patterns of mild and asymptomatic infection using serological techniques. However, to date, only broad epidemiological patterns have been defined, based on largely cross-sectional study designs with convenience sampling frameworks.Methods and findingsWe conducted a paired serological survey of a cohort of households in Hong Kong, recruited using random digit dialing, and gathered data on severe confirmed cases from the public hospital system (>90% inpatient days). Paired sera were obtained from 770 individuals, aged 3 to 103, along with detailed individual-level and household-level risk factors for infection. Also, we extrapolated beyond the period of our study using time series of severe cases and we simulated alternate study designs using epidemiological parameters obtained from our data. Rates of infection during the period of our study decreased substantially with age: for 3-19 years, the attack rate was 39% (31%-49%); 20-39 years, 8.9% (5.3%-14.7%); 40-59 years, 5.3% (3.5%-8.0%); and 60 years or older, 0.77% (0.18%-4.2%). We estimated parameters for a parsimonious model of infection in which a linear age term and the presence of a child in the household were used to predict the log odds of infection. Patterns of symptom reporting suggested that children experienced symptoms more often than adults. The overall rate of confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (H1N1pdm) deaths was 7.6 (6.2-9.5) per 100,000 infections. However, there was substantial and progressive increase in deaths per 100,000 infections with increasing age from 0.66 (0.65-0.86) for 3-19 years up to 220 (50-4,000) for 60 years and older. Extrapolating beyond the period of our study using rates of severe disease, we estimated that 56% (43%-69%) of 3-19 year olds and 16% (13%-18%) of people overall were infected by the pandemic strain up to the end of January 2010. Using simulation, we found that, during 2009, larger cohorts with shorter follow-up times could have rapidly provided similar data to those presented here.ConclusionsShould H1N1pdm evolve to be more infectious in older adults, average rates of severe disease per infection could be higher in future waves: measuring such changes in severity requires studies similar to that described here. The benefit of effective vaccination against H1N1pdm infection is likely to be substantial for older individuals. Revised pandemic influenza preparedness plans should include prospective serological cohort studies. Many individuals, of all ages, remained susceptible to H1N1pdm after the main 2009 wave in Hong Kong. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.