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Recent climate and land‐use changes are having substantial impacts on biodiversity, including population declines, range shifts, and changes in community composition. However, few studies have compared these impacts among multiple taxa, particularly because of a lack of standardized time series data over long periods. Existing data sets are typically of low resolution or poor coverage, both spatially and temporally, thereby limiting the inferences that can be drawn from such studies. Here, we compare climate and land‐use driven occupancy changes in butterflies, grasshoppers, and dragonflies using an extensive data set of highly heterogeneous observation data collected in the central European region of Bavaria (Germany) over a 40‐year period. Using occupancy models, we find occupancies (the proportion of sites occupied by a species in each year) of 37% of species have decreased, 30% have increased and 33% showed no significant trend. Butterflies and grasshoppers show strongest declines with 41% of species each. By contrast, 52% of dragonfly species increased. Temperature preference and habitat specificity appear as significant drivers of species trends. We show that cold‐adapted species across all taxa have declined, whereas warm‐adapted species have increased. In butterflies, habitat specialists have decreased, while generalists increased or remained stable. The trends of habitat generalists and specialists both in grasshoppers and semi‐aquatic dragonflies, however did not differ. Our findings indicate strong and consistent effects of climate warming across insect taxa. The decrease of butterfly specialists could hint towards a threat from land‐use change, as especially butterfly specialists' occurrence depends mostly on habitat quality and area. Our study not only illustrates how these taxa showed differing trends in the past but also provides hints on how we might mitigate the detrimental effects of human development on their diversity in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species distribution modelling ( SDM) is commonly used to predict spatial patterns of biodiversity across sets of taxa with sufficient distributional records, while omitting narrow-ranging species due to statistical constraints. We investigate the implications of this dichotomy for conservation priority setting in Africa, now and in the future. Location Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding islands). Methods We use multivariate ordination to characterize climatic niches of 733 African amphibians, distinguishing between species eligible for large-scale correlative SDM (≥ 10 records at 1° resolution) and those omitted due to insufficient records. Species distributions are projected under current and future climates using simple niche envelopes. Empirical priorities are derived separately on the eligible and omitted sets and compared with three existing large-scale conservation schemes. Results Of the 733 amphibian species, 400 have too few records for correlative SDM, including 92% of those threatened with extinction ( VU/ EN/ CR). Omitted species typically occupy topographically complex areas with cooler, wetter and less seasonal climates, which are projected to experience lower rates of climatic change. Priorities derived from omitted species have greater congruence with existing conservation schemes. Under future climate, priorities for eligible species shift towards those for omitted species. Similarly, while omitted species often lose climate space at 1° resolution, persistent populations tend to coincide with existing conservation schemes. Main conclusions Under current climate, statistical restrictions on SDM systematically downplay important sites for narrow-ranging and threatened species. This issue spans taxonomic groups and is only partially mitigated by modelling at finer scales. Effective biodiversity conservation, now and in the future, relies on our capacity to project geographic determinants of all species, and thus, a wider range of approaches is essential. We conclude, however, that future persistence among narrow- and wide-ranging species alike will be highest within sites already identified for conservation investment and that the focus on these sites ought to be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant–animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change. Climate change is leading to a fundamental reorganization of ecological communities. Current biodiversity models are mostly limited to the responses of individual species to climate change. Interactions between species, though critically important for species' performance and survival, are less frequently considered in biodiversity models. Functional traits of plants and animals can be used to quantify their environmental requirements, their probability of interaction in ecological networks, and their movement and dispersal ability. New predictive biodiversity models can be developed which incorporate functional traits and species interactions to better forecast interdependent species responses, novel communities, and eco-evolutionary consequences of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To understand how climatic conditions influence the geographical distributions of species and their potential responses to climate change, we investigated the relationships between the thermal tolerances of species and the size and limits of their distributions. We tested two hypotheses for endotherms: the climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts increases in range size with increasing breadth of thermal tolerance, and the climatic extreme hypothesis, which predicts that range limits are related to thermal tolerance limits. Furthermore, we tested whether these relationships differ between temperate and tropical areas. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Birds and mammals. Methods We compiled data on thermal tolerances that had been measured in physiological experiments for 453 endothermic species, along with information on geographical ranges and climatic conditions. We applied phylogenetic generalized least square regressions to test for relationships between thermal tolerance and (a) range size or limits and (b) breadth and extremes of the climatic conditions that each species experiences across its distribution. Results We found that range size was not related to the breadth thermal tolerance for endotherms. However, the range limits at high latitudes as well as the minimum temperatures experienced by species were closely related to the physiological cold tolerances of species. These relationships were particularly strong in temperate regions, but these patterns were not found in the tropics. Main conclusions Our results are inconsistent with the predictions of the climatic variability hypothesis, but are in line with the predictions of the climatic extreme hypothesis. Furthermore, the factors determining species distributions do not appear to be the same in tropical and temperate regions. Our study emphasizes the need to combine spatially explicit distribution models with information from physiological experiments in order to capture regional differences and improve predictions of the responses of species to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At global and regional scales, primary productivity strongly correlates with richness patterns of extant animals across space, suggesting that resource availability and climatic conditions drive patterns of diversity. However, the existence and consistency of such diversity- productivity relationships through geological history is unclear. Here we provide a comprehensive quantitative test of the diversity- productivity relationship for terrestrial large mammals through time across broad temporal and spatial scales. We combine >14,000 occurrences for 690 fossil genera through the Neogene (23-1.8 Mya) with regional estimates of primary productivity from fossil plant communities in North America and Europe. We show a significant positive diversity-productivity relationship through the 20-millionyear record, providing evidence on unprecedented spatial and temporal scales that this relationship is a general pattern in the ecology and paleo-ecology of our planet. Further, we discover that genus richness today does not match the fossil relationship, suggesting that a combination of human impacts and Pleistocene climate variability has modified the 20-million-year ecological relationship by strongly reducing primary productivity and driving many mammalian species into decline or to extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Understanding how species respond to climate and land use change is of prime importance for biodiversity conservation. However, studies using historical, empirical data to understand species responses to climate change and anthropogenic habitat disturbance remain scarce, especially for tropical mountain ecosystems. Here, we compare historical to recent mist net data to study changes in abundance of forest understorey birds along two elevational gradients. Location Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Methods We investigate patterns of understorey bird abundance along elevational and disturbance gradients on two slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro between 1991 and 2011. To understand species responses to climate change and disturbance, we use a trait-based approach. Specifically, we test whether and how species' traits (temperature, habitat and dietary preferences) affect species responses to environmental change. Results We found that over the 20-year time interval, mean minimum temperature increased across all sites along the elevational gradient, while levels of habitat disturbance remained similar. Mean abundance of understorey bird species increased significantly, especially at higher elevations and on the southern slope. Temporal increases were not related to species' temperature preferences and were detected for habitat generalists as well as herbivorous and omnivorous species, but not for forest specialists and insectivores. Main conclusions Our results suggest subtle effects of climate change on bird abundances which would not have been detectable if we had examined elevational range shifts or changes in species richness. Both warm- and cold-adapted species appear to have benefited from increases in minimum temperatures at high elevations. This was not the case for forest specialists and insectivores which remained stable between sampling periods. This demonstrates that different groups of birds vary in their response to ongoing climatic changes. Our results underline the importance of tropical mountain ecosystems not only as global biodiversity hotspots, but also as safe havens for biodiversity in the face of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent to which different kinds of organisms have adapted to environmental temperature regimes is central to understanding how they respond to climate change. The Scholander-Irving (S-I) model of heat transfer lays the foundation for explaining how endothermic birds and mammals maintain their high, relatively constant body temperatures in the face of wide variation in environmental temperature. The S-I model shows how body temperature is regulated by balancing the rates of heat production and heat loss. Both rates scale with body size, suggesting that larger animals should be better adapted to cold environments than smaller animals, and vice versa. However, the global distributions of ~9,000 species of terrestrial birds and mammals show that the entire range of body sizes occurs in nearly all climatic regimes. Using physiological and environmental temperature data for 211 bird and 178 mammal species, we test for mass-independent adaptive changes in two key parameters of the S-I model: basal metabolic rate (BMR) and thermal conductance. We derive an axis of thermal adaptation that is independent of body size, extends the S-I model, and highlights interactions among physiological and morphological traits that allow endotherms to persist in a wide range of temperatures. Our macrophysiological and macroecological analyses support our predictions that shifts in BMR and thermal conductance confer important adaptations to environmental temperature in both birds and mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Physiological traits that approximate the fundamental climatic niche - the climatic conditions where a species can survive - are the outcome of adaptation to the environment under historical and current environmental constraints. If a large amount of the variation in physiological traits among species can be explained by their phylogeny rather than by contemporary environmental conditions, this would indicate phylogenetic conservatism in physiological traits, i.e. the tendency of species to retain their ancestral physiology over time. Here, we evaluate the relative contributions of phylogeny and environment to explain the variation in physiological traits of birds and mammals at the global level, as well as separately for tropical versus temperate species. Location Global. Methods We compiled a large data set from the literature, on the thermal traits and basal metabolic rates of 552 endotherms (255 bird and 297 mammal species) as measured in physiological experiments, along with phylogenetic, geographical and climatic data. Our analyses, which were performed separately for birds and mammals, partitioned the variation in comparative physiological data into the relative contributions of phylogenetic and environmental distance matrices. Results Overall, the current environment explained a larger amount of variation in thermal traits among species than the phylogeny. However, we found that phylogeny was much more important than current environment for explaining the variation in physiological traits in the tropics, whereas environment was more important than phylogeny in temperate species. Main conclusions While evidence for phylogenetic conservatism in physiological traits at the global level was weak, results for tropical species suggest phylogenetic conservatism in their physiological traits. These results indicate a stronger tendency in tropical species to retain their ancestral thermal traits, which might in turn imply a lower physiological adaptability of tropical species to ongoing and future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We provide a framework for integrating paleontological and neontological research. [•] Our conceptual framework shows how fossil and contemporary data can be combined. [•] We give four examples of opportunities arising from a combined approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Over the last two decades, macroecology - the analysis of large-scale, multi-species ecological patterns and processes - has established itself as a major line of biological research. Analyses of statistical links between environmental variables and biotic responses have long and successfully been employed as a main approach, but new developments are due to be utilized. Scanning the horizon of macroecology, we identified four challenges that will probably play a major role in the future. We support our claims by examples and bibliographic analyses. 1) Integrating the past into macroecological analyses, e.g. by using paleontological or phylogenetic information or by applying methods from historical biogeography, will sharpen our understanding of the underlying reasons for contemporary patterns. 2) Explicit consideration of the local processes that lead to the observed larger-scale patterns is necessary to understand the fine-grain variability found in nature, and will enable better prediction of future patterns (e.g. under environmental change conditions). 3) Macroecology is dependent on large-scale, high quality data from a broad spectrum of taxa and regions. More available data sources need to be tapped and new, small-grain large-extent data need to be collected. 4) Although macroecology already lead to mainstreaming cutting-edge statistical analysis techniques, we find that more sophisticated methods are needed to account for the biases inherent to sampling at large scale. Bayesian methods may be particularly suitable to address these challenges. To continue the vigorous development of the macroecological research agenda, it is time to address these challenges and to avoid becoming too complacent with current achievements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenology, the seasonal timing of life events, is an essential component of diversity patterns. However, the mechanisms involved are complex and understudied. Body colour may be an important factor, because dark-bodied species absorb more solar radiation, which is predicted by the Thermal Melanism Hypothesis to enable them to thermoregulate successfully in cooler temperatures. Here we show that colour lightness of dragonfly assemblages varies in response to seasonal changes in solar radiation, with darker early- and late-season assemblages and lighter mid-season assemblages. This finding suggests a link between colour-based thermoregulation and insect phenology. We also show that the phenological pattern of dragonfly colour lightness advanced over the last decades. We suggest that changing seasonal temperature patterns due to global warming together with the static nature of solar radiation may drive dragonfly flight periods to suboptimal seasonal conditions. Our findings open a research avenue for a more mechanistic understanding of phenology and spatio-phenological impacts of climate warming on insects., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Evaluating the impact of future changes in land-use and climate on species communities, especially species richness, is one of the most important challenges of current research in ecology and conservation. The impact of environmental changes on species richness depends on its sensitivity ( i.e ., how strongly a given level of change influences the ecological community) and its exposure ( i.e ., the amount of change that occurs). To examine the sensitivity, exposure, and potential impact of future environmental conditions on bird communities, we compiled data on bird species richness for Pakistan-a neglected region in macro- or country-scale studies. Since bird species richness strongly varies across seasons due to the seasonal occurrence of migratory species in winter, we compared both wintering (migratory plus resident species) and breeding (resident species only) bird richness. We found breeding and wintering species richness to be sensitive to temperature, precipitation and rainfed cropland by being positively related to these factors. Exposure varied regionally, with projected temperature changes being most profound in northern regions while the strongest projected precipitation changes occurred in central and southern regions. The projected impact of future environmental change were highly heterogeneous across the country and differed between the wintering and breeding communities. Overall, the most negatively impacted region was projected to be the Khyber Pakhtunkha province in the North of Pakistan, due to reductions in precipitation and rainfed cropland, resulting in a projected negative impact, especially on wintering species richness. By highlighting the regional and seasonal bird communities most at risk, our findings provide useful information for policy makers to help devise new policies for mitigating negative impacts of future environmental changes on birds within Pakistan., Competing Interests: Christian Hof and Imran Khaliq are Academic Editors for PeerJ., (© 2023 Khaliq et al.)

Understanding the role of thermal tolerances in determining species distributions is important for assessing species responses to climate change. Two hypotheses linking physiology with species distributions have been put forward-the climatic variability hypothesis and the climatic extreme hypothesis. The climatic variability hypothesis predicts the selection of individuals with broad thermal tolerance in more variable climatic conditions and the climatic extreme hypothesis predicts the selection of individuals with extreme thermal tolerance values under extreme climatic conditions. However, no study has tested the predictions of these hypotheses simultaneously for several taxonomic groups along elevational gradients. Here, we related experimentally measured critical thermal maxima, critical thermal minima and thermal tolerance breadths for 15,187 individuals belonging to 116 species of ants, beetles, grasshoppers, and spiders from mountain ranges in central and northern Pakistan to the limits and breadths of their geographic and temperature range. Across all species and taxonomic groups, we found strong relationships between thermal traits and elevational distributions both in terms of geography and temperature. The relationships were robust when repeating the analyses for ants, grasshoppers, and spiders but not for beetles. These results indicate a strong role of physiology in determining elevational distributions of arthropods in Southern Asia. Overall, we found strong support for the climatic variability hypothesis and the climatic extreme hypothesis. A close association between species' distributional limits and their thermal tolerances suggest that in case of a failure to adapt or acclimate to novel climatic conditions, species may be under pressure to track their preferred climatic conditions, potentially facing serious consequences under current and future climate change., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.)

Anthropogenic global warming has major implications for mobile terrestrial insects, including long-term effects from constant warming, for example, on species distribution patterns, and short-term effects from heat extremes that induce immediate physiological responses. To cope with heat extremes, they either have to reduce their activity or move to preferable microhabitats. The availability of favorable microhabitat conditions is strongly promoted by the spatial heterogeneity of habitats, which is often reduced by anthropogenic land transformation. Thus, it is decisive to understand the combined effects of these global change drivers on insect activity. Here, we assessed the movement activity of six insect species (from three orders) in response to heat stress using a unique tracking approach via radio frequency identification. We tracked 465 individuals at the iDiv Ecotron across a temperature gradient up to 38.7°C. In addition, we varied microhabitat conditions by adding leaf litter from four different tree species to the experimental units, either spatially separated or well mixed. Our results show opposing effects of heat extremes on insect activity depending on the microhabitat conditions. The insect community significantly decreased its activity in the mixed litter scenario, while we found a strong positive effect on activity in the separated litter scenario. We hypothesize that the simultaneous availability of thermal refugia as well as resources provided by the mixed litter scenario allows animals to reduce their activity and save energy in response to heat stress. Contrary, the spatial separation of beneficial microclimatic conditions and resources forces animals to increase their activity to fulfill their energetic needs. Thus, our study highlights the importance of habitat heterogeneity on smaller scales, because it may buffer the consequences of extreme temperatures of insect performance and survival under global change., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on species distributions across non-marine birds, quantifying its projected impact on species richness (SR) as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity globally. Going beyond previous work, we disentangle the potential impacts of species gains versus losses on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes. We show that beyond its effects on SR, climate change could have profound impacts on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity and composition, which differ significantly from random changes and among regions. Though marked species losses are most frequent in tropical and subtropical areas in our projections, phylogenetic restructuring of species communities is likely to occur all across the globe. Furthermore, our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity of local assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts and local species gains rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments.

Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate their potential combined impacts on global vertebrate diversity under a low- and a high-level emission scenario. We combine climate-based species distribution models for the world's amphibians, birds, and mammals with land-use change simulations and identify areas threatened by both climate and land-use change in the future. The combined projected effects of climate and land-use change on vertebrate diversity are similar under the two scenarios, with land-use change effects being stronger under the low- and climate change effects under the high-emission scenario. Under the low-emission scenario, increases in bioenergy cropland may cause severe impacts in biodiversity that are not compensated by lower climate change impacts. Under this low-emission scenario, larger proportions of species distributions and a higher number of small-range species may become impacted by the combination of land-use and climate change than under the high-emission scenario, largely a result of bioenergy cropland expansion. Our findings highlight the need to carefully consider both climate and land-use change when projecting biodiversity impacts. We show that biodiversity is likely to suffer severely if bioenergy cropland expansion remains a major component of climate change mitigation strategies. Our study calls for an immediate and significant reduction in energy consumption for the benefit of both biodiversity and to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission., (Copyright © 2018, The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Identifying patterns in the effects of temperature on species' population abundances could help develop a general framework for predicting the consequences of climate change across different communities and realms. We used long-term population time series data from terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species communities within central Europe to compare the effects of temperature on abundance across a broad range of taxonomic groups. We asked whether there was an average relationship between temperatures in different seasons and annual abundances of species in a community, and whether species attributes (temperature range of distribution, range size, habitat breadth, dispersal ability, body size, and lifespan) explained interspecific variation in the relationship between temperature and abundance. We found that, on average, warmer winter temperatures were associated with greater abundances in terrestrial communities (ground beetles, spiders, and birds) but not always in aquatic communities (freshwater and marine invertebrates and fish). The abundances of species with large geographical ranges, larger body sizes, and longer lifespans tended to be less related to temperature. Our results suggest that climate change may have, in general, positive effects on species' abundances within many terrestrial communities in central Europe while the effects are less predictable in aquatic communities., (© 2017 The Author(s).)

The relationships among species' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals-a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change., (© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)