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Mesoscopic models in the reaction-diffusion framework have gained recognition as a viable approach to describing chemical processes in cell biology. The resulting computational problem is a continuous-time Markov chain on a discrete and typically very large state space. Due to the many temporal and spatial scales involved many different types of computationally more effective multiscale models have been proposed, typically coupling different types of descriptions within the Markov chain framework. In this work we look at the strong convergence properties of the basic first order Strang, or Lie--Trotter, split-step method, which is formed by decoupling the dynamics in finite time steps. Thanks to its simplicity and flexibility, this approach has been tried in many different combinations. We develop explicit sufficient conditions for pathwise well-posedness and convergence of the method, including error estimates, and we illustrate our findings with numerical examples. In doing so, we also suggest a certain partition of unity representation for the split-step method, which in turn implies a concrete simulation algorithm under which trajectories may be compared in a pathwise sense. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern technology for producing extremely bright and coherent x-ray laser pulses provides the possibility to acquire a large number of diffraction patterns from individual biological nanoparticles, including proteins, viruses, and DNA. These two-dimensional diffraction patterns can be practically reconstructed and retrieved down to a resolution of a few angstroms. In principle, a sufficiently large collection of diffraction patterns will contain the required information for a full three-dimensional reconstruction of the biomolecule. The computational methodology for this reconstruction task is still under development and highly resolved reconstructions have not yet been produced. We analyze the expansion-maximization-compression scheme, the current state of the art approach for this very challenging application, by isolating different sources of resolution-limiting factors. Through numerical experiments on synthetic data we evaluate their respective impact. We reach conclusions of relevance for handling actual experimental data, and we also point out certain improvements to the underlying estimation algorithm. We also introduce a practically applicable computational methodology in the form of bootstrap procedures for assessing reconstruction uncertainty in the real data case. We evaluate the sharpness of this approach and argue that this type of procedure will be critical in the near future when handling the increasing amount of data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The landscape of computational modeling in cancer systems biology is diverse, offering a spectrum of models and frameworks, each with its own trade-offs and advantages. Ideally, models are meant to be useful in refining hypotheses, to sharpen experimental procedures and, in the longer run, even for applications in personalized medicine. One of the greatest challenges is to balance model realism and detail with experimental data to eventually produce useful data-driven models. We contribute to this quest by developing a transparent, highly parsimonious, first principle in silico model of a growing avascular tumor. We initially formulate the physiological considerations and the specific model within a stochastic cell-based framework. We next formulate a corresponding mean-field model using partial differential equations which is amenable to mathematical analysis. Despite a few notable differences between the two models, we are in this way able to successfully detail the impact of all parameters in the stability of the growth process and on the eventual tumor fate of the stochastic model. This facilitates the deduction of Bayesian priors for a given situation, but also provides important insights into the underlying mechanism of tumor growth and progression. Although the resulting model framework is relatively simple and transparent, it can still reproduce the full range of known emergent behavior. We identify a novel model instability arising from nutrient starvation and we also discuss additional insight concerning possible model additions and the effects of those. Thanks to the framework's flexibility, such additions can be readily included whenever the relevant data become available., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In an effort to provide regional decision support for the public healthcare, we design a data-driven compartment-based model of COVID-19 in Sweden. From national hospital statistics we derive parameter priors, and we develop linear filtering techniques to drive the simulations given data in the form of daily healthcare demands. We additionally propose a posterior marginal estimator which provides for an improved temporal resolution of the reproduction number estimate as well as supports robustness checks via a parametric bootstrap procedure. From our computational approach we obtain a Bayesian model of predictive value which provides important insight into the progression of the disease, including estimates of the effective reproduction number, the infection fatality rate, and the regional-level immunity. We successfully validate our posterior model against several different sources, including outputs from extensive screening programs. Since our required data in comparison is easy and non-sensitive to collect, we argue that our approach is particularly promising as a tool to support monitoring and decisions within public health. Significance: Using public data from Swedish patient registries we develop a national-scale computational model of COVID-19. The parametrized model produces valuable weekly predictions of healthcare demands at the regional level and validates well against several different sources. We also obtain critical epidemiological insights into the disease progression, including, e.g., reproduction number, immunity and disease fatality estimates. The success of the model hinges on our novel use of filtering techniques which allows us to design an accurate data-driven procedure using data exclusively from healthcare demands, i.e., our approach does not rely on public testing and is therefore very cost-effective., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the Bayesian model's convergence with increasing amounts of data under measurement limitations. Depending on how weakly informative the disease measurements are, we offer a kind of 'best case' as well as a 'worst case' analysis where, in the former case, we assume that the prevalence is directly accessible, while in the latter that only a binary signal corresponding to a prevalence detection threshold is available. Both cases are studied under an assumed so-called linear noise approximation as to the true dynamics. Numerical experiments test the sharpness of our results when confronted with more realistic situations for which analytical results are unavailable.

The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

We take up the challenge of designing realistic computational models of large interacting cell populations. The goal is essentially to bring Gillespie's celebrated stochastic methodology to the level of an interacting population of cells. Specifically, we are interested in how the gold standard of single-cell computational modeling, here taken to be spatial stochastic reaction-diffusion models, may be efficiently coupled with a similar approach at the cell population level. Concretely, we target a recently proposed set of pathways for pattern formation involving Notch-Delta signaling mechanisms. These involve cell-to-cell communication as mediated both via direct membrane contact sites and via cellular protrusions. We explain how to simulate the process in growing tissue using a multilevel approach and we discuss implications for future development of the associated computational methods.