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Aim Abundances of animals vary according to species-specific habitat selection, but habitats are undergoing rapid change in response to anthropogenic alterations of land use and climate. The long-term decline of snowfall is one of the most dramatic abiotic changes in boreal regions, with potential to alter species communities and shape future ecosystems. However, the effects of snow cover on habitat-specific abundances remain unclear for many taxa. Here we explore whether long-term declines in snow cover affect the abundances of overwintering birds. Taxon Fifty bird species. Location Finland, Northern Europe. Methods We used generalized linear mixed models to analyse citizen-led monitoring data from 196 transects over a 32-year period to assess whether abundances of birds have changed in built-up areas, farmlands and forests, and whether these covary with warming temperatures and decreasing snow. We then explored if changes in abundance can be explained by body mass, migration strategy or feeding guilds of the species. Results Over the study period, the abundance of overwintering birds increased. This increase was most pronounced in farmlands (69.6%), where abundances were positively associated with decreasing snow depth. On the other hand, while abundances in built-up habitats (19.5%) decreased over the study period, they increased in periods of high snow depths. Finally, we found that the short-distance migration strategy explains changes in bird abundances with snow. In farmlands, ground feeding birds and heavier birds also show a positive trends in abundance with decreasing snow depths. Main conclusions Local snow conditions are driving habitat selection of birds in the winter; birds in farmlands were most responsive to a decrease in snow depth. Changing snow depths can affect bird movements across habitats in the winter, but also influence migratory patterns and range shifts of species.

Global environmental changes may cause dramatic insect declines but over century-long time series of certain species’ records are rarely available for scientific research. The Menetries’ Tiger Moth (Arctia menetriesii) appears to be the most enigmatic example among boreal insects. Although it occurs throughout the entire Eurasian taiga biome, it is so rare that less than 100 specimens were recorded since its original description in 1846. Here, we present the database, which contains nearly all available information on the species’ records collected from 1840s to 2020. The data on A. menetriesii records (N = 78) through geographic regions, environments, and different timeframes are compiled and unified. The database may serve as the basis for a wide array of future research such as the distribution modeling and predictions of range shifts under climate changes. It represents a unique example of a more than century-long dataset of distributional, ecological, and phenological data designed for an exceptionally rare but widespread boreal insect, which primarily occurs in hard-to-reach, uninhabited areas of Eurasia.

Coastal systems experience strong impacts of ongoing environmental change, affecting fish communities and subsequently fishery yields. In the Baltic Sea, the combined effects of climate-induced changes and eutrophication-related pressures constitute major threats to its living resources. Although much work has been devoted to uncovering environmental impacts on the commercially most valuable fish stocks, only little is known about community-wide responses of fished species and how environmental change may affect their yield. In this study, the authors use a joint species distribution modelling framework to disentangle environmental impacts on species-specific fishery yields of 16 fished species along the coast of Finland over four decades. The authors show that environmental covariates substantially contributed to variations in fishery yields and are likely to have strong impacts on fished resources also in the future. Salinity and near-bottom oxygen concentration emerged as the strongest environmental drivers of yields at the community level, whereas temperature was particularly important for cod (Gadus morhua) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) yields. The authors found shore density to be an important predictor for fisheries resources especially for freshwater fish. The results of this study suggest that the changes in environmental conditions during the past four decades had a positive effect on the yields of freshwater and warm-affinity species, whereas yields of marine cold-affinity species have been mainly negatively affected by contracting favourable habitats, becoming warmer and less saline.

The presence of very high pollen levels in the atmosphere is associated with a strong impact on health and a worsening of symptoms in people who already have a respiratory disease. However, there is no specification on the aerobiological, environmental and meteorological factors that allow for characterizing a pollen event as of great magnitude due to the significant impact it can cause on the population and the environment. This work proposes criteria to typify the levels of atmospheric pollen as an extreme pollen event (EPE), and aims to determine the meteorological variables that can affect the presence and permanence of high pollen concentrations over a period of time. To address this goal, the quasi-climatological pollen dataset recorded in Granada (Southeastern Spain) during the period 1992-2019, has been used. On the daily accumulated pollen concentrations, the 95th, 97th and 99th percentiles were calculated. Spearman's correlation between the pollen concentration exceeding the proposed thresholds (C>P95, C>P97, C>P99) and surface meteorological variables recorded during up to five days before the event were established in order to identify the meteorological conditions that might affect the EPEs. As for the number of days with values higher than the established percentiles, it has been seen that in the case of total pollen and Olea, Cupressaceae and Pinus, there is a robust monotonically ascending trend throughout the study period. Regarding meteorological variables, relative humidity and 24-h accumulated precipitation are shown as the two most influential variables up to three days before the event, although temperatures, visibility and wind direction also show a correlation with some pollen types. The criteria proposed in this work allow us for classifying high levels of pollen as an EPE, and lay the foundations of these extreme events in a context of climate change in which they will become more frequent., the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) for support through project BIOCLOUD (RTI2018-101154-A-100) and INTEGRATYON3 (PID2020.117825GB.C21), Regional Government of Andalusia through project AEROPRE (P18-RT-3820) and ADAPNE (P20-00136), INPARK (B-RNM-474-UGR18), DEM3TRIOS (A-RNM-430-UGR20), Earth System Excellence Units Program

Water browning or brownification refers to increasing water color, often related to increasing dissolved organic matter (DOM) and carbon (DOC) content in freshwaters. Browning has been recognized as a significant physicochemical phe-nomenon altering boreal lakes, but our understanding of its ecological consequences in different freshwater habitats and regions is limited. Here, we review the consequences of browning on different freshwater habitats, food webs and aquatic-terrestrial habitat coupling. We examine global trends of browning and DOM/DOC, and the use of remote sensing as a tool to investigate browning from local to global scales. Studies have focused on lakes and rivers while sel-dom addressing effects at the catchment scale. Other freshwater habitats such as small and temporary waterbodies have been overlooked, making the study of the entire network of the catchment incomplete. While past research inves-tigated the response of primary producers, aquatic invertebrates and fishes, the effects of browning on macrophytes, invasive species, and food webs have been understudied. Research has focused on freshwater habitats without consid-ering the fluxes between aquatic and terrestrial habitats. We highlight the importance of understanding how the changes in one habitat may cascade to another. Browning is a broader phenomenon than the heretofore concentration on the boreal region. Overall, we propose that future studies improve the ecological understanding of browning through the following research actions: 1) increasing our knowledge of ecological processes of browning in other wetland types than lakes and rivers, 2) assessing the impact of browning on aquatic food webs at multiple scales, 3) examining the effects of browning on aquatic-terrestrial habitat coupling, 4) expanding our knowledge of browning from the local to global scale, and 5) using remote sensing to examine browning and its ecological consequences.

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are a cornerstone of an effective approach to climate change mitigation. Despite the variety of methodologies for characterising the energy system, land use change, economics, and climate response, the modelling community has an open and urgent request for tools capable of more realistic interpretation of the energy transition, capturing human behaviour, and embodying the principles of transparency, reproducibility, and flexibility of use. This paper presents an open-source modelling framework designed to fill that gap. Named MUSE (ModUlar energy systems Simulation Environment), this new agent-based model supports flexible characterisation of agent decision-making, including individual goals, bounded-rationality, imperfect foresight, and limited knowledge during the decision process. MUSE integrates this agent-based approach in a partial-equilibrium framework and enables a technology-rich description of the energy systems with an unprecedented degree of flexibility for including technological, temporal, and geographical granularity. The structure of MUSE creates the ability to produce climate change mitigation assessments that are more grounded, and more tangible model outputs for conceiving effective approaches to mitigation. MUSE is available open source under a GNU General Public License v3.0 on GitHub at this link https://github.com/SGIModel/MUSE_OS.

Echinochloa crus-galli (L.) P. Beauv. is one of the most important weeds. It is distributed worldwide and has adapted to diverse habitats and climatic conditions. This study aimed to compare the emergence patterns of two populations of E. crus-galli from different environments at 11 locations across Europe and the Middle East. Seeds of the two populations were collected from maize in Italy and from spring barley in Norway and were then buried in soil in autumn 2015. In the spring of 2016, the soil was disturbed around the usual seedbed preparation date in each location and emergence was recorded. The soil was again disturbed a year later and emergence was recorded for a second season. Total emergence, the times of onset, end and to 50% emergence and the period between 25% and 75% of emergence were analysed by two-way ANOVA and principal components analysis. The Italian population showed a higher emergence than the Norwegian population in Southern locations, while the ranking was reversed in Northern locations. In almost all locations, a tendency to emerge earlier was recorded for the Norwegian population, but the periods from 25% to 75% emergence were similar for both populations. Total emergence, and the times of onset and end of emergence seemed to be mainly under genotypic (plus maternal) control, suggesting there were different temperature thresholds for seedling emergence in each population. Conversely, the duration of emergence seemed to be mainly under environmental control. This research confirms the high variability between populations and suggests the need to continue identifying key characteristics for the development of efficient models for seedling emergence in specific climates and/or latitudes. The authors thank all the technicians, students and institutions that have contributed to establishing and maintaining the field experiment. We also thank Dr. Frank Forcella and James Eklund from the USDA‐ARS in Morris (MN) for providing the dataloggers and facilitating the collection of soil temperature data in each location. Our thanks also to the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for funding to Royo‐Esnal through the AGL2017‐83325‐C4‐2‐R; Duzce Üniversitesi, Turkey, for funding to Uludag (Project No: 2015.11.02.375); and the Norwegian Research Funding for Agriculture and the Food Industry and project partners in Research Council of Norway Project no. 267700 for supporting Tørresen in the experiment. Uludag thanks his two graduate students Miss Buyukkurt and Zambak, and Murdoch thanks MSc student, Mr Guangxing Xie, who carried out the germination assays. Finally, the authors are also grateful to the European Weed Research Society for providing funds to enable the working group participants to meet and discuss the collaborative experiment.

Food insecurity exacerbates malnutrition with irreversible consequences for children. Thus, we address the determinants of food security status with reference to women farmers, the determinants of access to irrigation technology as a critical determinant of food security and the effect of cooperatives on nutritional status. We used primary data from Kakamega, Kenya. Descriptive data analysis was applied together with regression analysis using logistic, probit and linear endogenous treatment models. Cooperative membership facilitates female farmers’ access to productive resources like credit, thereby contributing to improved food security status. Though most female farmers are not members of cooperatives, the female members of cooperatives perform slightly better as determinants of food security status and are more food secure than female non-members. The limitations of cooperatives include the low percentage of farmers using irrigation and farmers’ low nutritional status. Extension services positively impact irrigation, thereby calling for gender equality among field officers to enable communication with female farmers and for the formation of cooperatives that target women's needs. Governments, development agencies and civil societies should support cooperatives in their financial, technical and management issues to create awareness concerning family planning and offer access to credit and irrigation technology, resulting in increased food production, improved food security and nutrition status.

Tobias, Joseph A., Sheard, Catherine, Pigot, Alex L., Devenish, Adam J. M., Yang, Jingyi, Sayol, Ferran, Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C., Alioravainen, Nico, Weeks, Thomas L., Barber, Robert A., Walkden, Patrick A., MacGregor, Hannah E. A., Jones, Samuel E. I., Vincent, Claire, Phillips, Anna G., Marples, Nicola M., Montaño‐Centellas, Flavia A., Leandro‐Silva, Victor, Claramunt, Santiago, Darski, Bianca, Freeman, Benjamin G., Bregman, Tom P., Cooney, Christopher R., Hughes, Emma C., Capp, Elliot J. R., Varley, Zoë K., Friedman, Nicholas R., Korntheuer, Heiko, Corrales‐Vargas, Andrea, Trisos, Christopher H., Weeks, Brian C., Hanz, Dagmar M., Töpfer, Till, Bravo, Gustavo A., Remeš, Vladimír, Nowak, Larissa, Carneiro, Lincoln S., Moncada R., Amilkar J., Matysioková, Beata, Baldassarre, Daniel T., Martínez‐Salinas, Alejandra, Wolfe, Jared D., Chapman, Philip M., Daly, Benjamin G., Sorensen, Marjorie C., Neu, Alexander, Ford, Michael A., Mayhew, Rebekah J., Fabio Silveira, Luis, Kelly, David J., Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., Pollock, Henry S., Grabowska‐Zhang, Ada M., McEntee, Jay P., Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, Meneses, Camila G., Muñoz, Marcia C., Powell, Luke L., Jamie, Gabriel A., Matthews, Thomas J., Johnson, Oscar, Brito, Guilherme R. R., Zyskowski, Kristof, Crates, Ross, Harvey, Michael G., Jurado Zevallos, Maura, Hosner, Peter A., Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom, Maley, James M., Stiles, F. Gary, Lima, Hevana S., Provost, Kaiya L., Chibesa, Moses, Mashao, Mmatjie, Howard, Jeffrey T., Mlamba, Edson, Chua, Marcus A. H., Li, Bicheng, Gómez, M. Isabel, García, Natalia C., Päckert, Martin, Fuchs, Jérôme, Ali, Jarome R., Derryberry, Elizabeth P., Carlson, Monica L., Urriza, Rolly C., Brzeski, Kristin E., Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., Rayner, Matt J., Miller, Eliot T., Bowie, Rauri C. K., Lafontaine, René‐Marie, Scofield, R. Paul, Lou, Yingqiang, Somarathna, Lankani, Lepage, Denis, Illif, Marshall, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, Templin, Mathias, Dehling, D. Matthias, Cooper, Jacob C., Pauwels, Olivier S. G., Analuddin, Kangkuso, Fjeldså, Jon, Seddon, Nathalie, Sweet, Paul R., DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Naka, Luciano N., Brawn, Jeffrey D., Aleixo, Alexandre, Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin, Rahbek, Carsten, Fritz, Susanne A., Thomas, Gavin H., Schleuning, Matthias (2022): AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds. Ecology Letters 25 (3): 581-597, DOI: 10.1111/ele.13898, URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13898

Northern peatlands are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Widespread climate-driven ecohydrological changes in these ecosystems can have major consequences on their C sequestration function. Here, we synthesize plant macrofossil data from 33 surficial peat cores from different ecoclimatic regions, with high-resolution chronologies. The main objectives were to document recent ecosystem state shifts and explore their impact on C sequestration in high-latitude undisturbed peatlands of northeastern Canada. Our synthesis shows widespread recent ecosystem shifts in peatlands, such as transitions from oligotrophic fens to bogs and Sphagnum expansion, coinciding with climate warming which has also influenced C accumulation during the last similar to 100 years. The rapid shifts towards drier bog communities and an expansion of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia after 1980 CE were most pronounced in the northern subarctic sites and are concurrent with summer warming in northeastern Canada. These results provide further evidence of a northward migration of Sphagnum-dominated peatlands in North America in response to climate change. The results also highlight differences in the timing of ecosystem shifts among peatlands and regions, reflecting internal peatland dynamics and varying responses of vegetation communities. Our study suggests that the recent rapid climate-driven shifts from oligotrophic fen to drier bog communities have promoted plant productivity and thus peat C accumulation. We highlight the importance of considering recent ecohydrological trajectories when modelling the potential contribution of peatlands to climate change. Our study suggests that, contrary to expectations, peat C sequestration could be promoted in high-latitude non-permafrost peatlands where wet sedge fens may transition to drier Sphagnum bog communities due to warmer and longer growing seasons.

European Research Council (ERC) Starting Grant 205905 (to O.O.) and Synergy Grant 856506—LIFEPLAN (to O.O. and T.R.); Spanish Ramón y Cajal Grant RYC-2014-16263 (to M.M.D.) (...), Delgado, M.D.M., Roslin, T., Tikhonov, G., Meyke, E., Lo, C., Gurarie, E., Abadonova, M., Abduraimov, O., Adrianova, O., Akimova, T., Akkiev, M., Ananin, A., Andreeva, E., Andriychuk, N., Antipin, M., Arzamascev, K., Babina, S., Babushkin, M., Bakin, O., Barabancova, A., Basilskaja, I., Belova, N., Belyaeva, N., Bespalova, T., Bisikalova, E., Bobretsovz, A., Bobrov, V., Bobrovskyi, V., Bochkareva, E., Bogdanov, G., Bolshakov, V., Bondarchuk, S., Bukharova, E., Butunina, A., Buyvolov, Y., Buyvolova, A., Bykov, Y., Chakhireva, E., Chashchina, O., Cherenkova, N., Chistjakov, S., Chuhontseva, S., Davydov, E.A., Demchenko, V., Diadicheva, E., Dobrolyubov, A., Dostoyevskaya, L., Drovnina, S., Drozdova, Z., Dubanaev, A., Dubrovsky, Y., Elsukov, S., Epova, L., Ermakova, O.S., Ermakova, O., Esengeldenova, A., Evstigneev, O., Fedchenko, I., Fedotova, V., Filatova, T., Gashev, S., Gavrilov, A., Gaydys, I., Golovcov, D., Goncharova, N., Gorbunova, E., Gordeeva, T., Grishchenko, V., Gromyko, L., Hohryakov, V., Hritankov, A., Ignatenko, E., Igosheva, S., Ivanova, U., Ivanova, N., Kalinkin, Y., Kaygorodova, E., Kazansky, F., Kiseleva, D., Knorrem, A., Kolpashikov, L., Korobov, E., Korolyova, H., Korotkikh, N., Kosenkov, G., Kossenko, S., Kotlugalyamova, E., Kozlovsky, E., Kozsheechkin, V., Kozurak, A., Kozyr, I., Krasnopevtseva, A., Krugliko, S., Kuberskaya, O., Kudryavtsev, A., Kulebyakina, E., Kulsha, Y., Kupriyanova, M., Kurbanbagamaev, M., Kutenkov, A., Kutenkova, N., Kuyantseva, N., Kuznetsov, A., Larin, E., Lebedev, P., Litvinov, K., Luzhkova, N., Mahmudov, A., Makovkina, L., Mamontov, V., Mayorova, S., Megalinskaja, I., Meydus, A., Minin, A., Mitrofanov, O., Motruk, M., Myslenkov, A., Nasonova, N., Nemtseva, N., Nesterova, I., Nezdoliy, T., Niroda, T., Novikova, T., Panicheva, D., Pavlov, A., Pavlova, K., Van, P., Podolski, S., Polikarpova, N., Tatiana Polyanskaya81, Pospelov, I., Pospelova, E., Prokhorov, I., Prokosheva, I., Puchnina, L., Putrashyk, I., Raiskaya, J., Rozhkov, Y., Rozhkova, O., Rudenko, M., Rybnikova, I., Rykova, S., Sahnevich, M., Samoylov, A., Sank, V., Sapelnikova, I., Sazonov, S., Selyunina, Z., Shalaeva, K., Shashkov, M., Shcherbakov, A., Shevchyk, V., Shubin, S., Shujskaja, E., Sibgatullin, R., Sikkilah, N., Sitnikova, E., Sivkov, A., Skok, N., Skorokhodova, S., Smirnova, E., Sokolova, G., Sopin, V., Spasovski, Y., Stepanov, S., Stratiy, V., Strekalovskaya, V., Sukhov, A., Suleymanova, G., Sultangareeva, L., Teleganova, V., Teplov, V., Teplova, V., Tertitsa, T., Timoshkin, V., Tirski, D., Tolmachev, A., Tomilin, A., Tselishcheva, L., Turgunov, M., Tyukh, Y., Van, V., Ershkova, E., Vasin, A., Vasina, A., Vekliuk, A., Vetchinnikova, L., Vinogradov, V., Volodchenko, N., Voloshina, I., Xoliqov, T., Yablonovska-Grishchenko, E., Yakovlev, V., Yakovleva, M., Yantser, O., Yarema, Y., Zahvatov, A., Zakharov, V., Zelenetskiy, N., Zheltukhin, A., Zubina, T., Kurhinen, J., Ovaskainen, O.

Ocean heat storage due to local addition of heat (“added”) and due to changes in heat transport (“redistributed”) were quantified in ocean-only 2xCO2 simulations. While added heat storage dominates globally, redistribution makes important regional contributions, especially in the tropics. Heat redistribution is dominated by circulation changes, summarized by the super-residual transport, with only minor effects from changes in vertical mixing. While previous studies emphasized the contribution of redistribution feedback at high latitudes, this study shows that redistribution of heat also accounts for 65% of heat storage at low latitudes and 25% in the midlatitude (35°–50°S) Southern Ocean. Tropical warming results from the interplay between increased stratification and equatorward heat transport by the subtropical gyres, which redistributes heat from the subtropics to lower latitudes. The Atlantic pattern is remarkably distinct from other basins, resulting in larger basin-average heat storage. Added heat storage is evenly distributed throughout midlatitude Southern Ocean and dominates the total storage. However, redistribution stores heat north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Atlantic and Indian sectors, having an important contribution to the peak of heat storage at 45°S. Southern Ocean redistribution results from intensified heat convergence in the subtropical front and reduced stratification in response to surface heat, freshwater, and momentum flux perturbations. These results highlight that the distribution of ocean heat storage reflects both passive uptake of heat and active redistribution of heat by changes in ocean circulation processes. The redistributed heat transport must therefore be better understood for accurate projection of changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency, ocean heat storage, and thermosteric sea level.

Global warming is causing plastic and evolutionary changes in the phenotypes of ectotherms. Yet, we have limited knowledge on how the interplay between plasticity and evolution shapes thermal responses and underlying gene expression patterns. We assessed thermal reaction norm patterns across the transcriptome and identified associated molecular pathways in northern and southern populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. Larvae were reared in a common garden experiment at the mean summer water temperatures experienced at the northern (20°C) and southern (24°C) latitudes. This allowed a space-for-time substitution where the current gene expression levels at 24°C in southern larvae are a proxy for the expected responses of northern larvae under gradual thermal evolution to the predicted 4°C warming. Most differentially expressed genes showed fixed differences across temperatures between latitudes, suggesting that thermal genetic adaptation will mainly evolve through changes in constitutive gene expression. Northern populations also frequently showed plastic responses in gene expression to mild warming, while southern populations were much less responsive to temperature. Thermal responsive genes in northern populations showed to a large extent a pattern of genetic compensation, namely gene expression that was induced at 24°C in northern populations remained at a lower constant level in southern populations, and were associated with metabolic and translation pathways. There was instead little evidence for genetic assimilation of an initial plastic response to mild warming. Our data therefore suggest that genetic compensation rather than genetic assimilation may drive the evolution of plasticity in response to mild warming in this damselfly species. ispartof: MOLECULAR ECOLOGY vol:29 issue:24 pages:4823-4834 ispartof: location:England status: published

1. Many populations need to adapt to changing environmental conditions, such as warming climate. Changing conditions generate directional selection for traits critical for fitness. For evolutionary responses to occur, these traits need to be heritable. However, changes in environmental conditions can alter the amount of heritable variation a population expresses, making predictions about expected responses difficult. 2. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of ambient temperatures on evolutionary potential and strength of natural selection on the timing of reproduction in two passerine birds breeding in boreal forests. 3. Long‐term data on individually marked Willow Tits Poecile montanus (1975–2018) and Great Tits Parus major (1969–2018) were analysed with random regression animal models to assess if spring temperatures affect the expressed amount of additive genetic variation (VA) and heritability (h²) in the timing of breeding. We assessed if ambient temperatures of different seasons influenced the direction and strength of selection on breeding time. We also evaluated if the strength of selection covaried with evolutionary potential. 4. Levels of VA or h² expressed in laying date were unaffected by spring temperatures in both study species. Selection for earlier breeding was found in the Willow Tit, but not in the Great Tit. In the Willow Tit, selection for earlier breeding was more intense when the temperatures of following autumns and winters were low. Different measures of evolutionary potential did not covary strongly with the strength of selection in either species. 5. We conclude that there is no or little evidence that climate warming would either constrain or promote evolutionary potential in timing of breeding through changes in amount of genetic variance expressed in boreal Willow and Great Tits. However, selection on the timing of breeding, a life‐history event taking place in springtime, is regulated by temperatures of autumns and winters. Rapid warming of these periods have thus potential to reduce the rate of expected evolutionary response in reproductive timing.

The Eastern Mediterranean region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is experiencing patterns of major drought due to the effects of rising temperatures and falling precipitation levels. The multiscale drought evaluation Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) reveals evolving and severe drought from North Africa and the Sinai desert toward the Middle East. While there has been a period without drought between 1970 and 1990, the severity and frequency of drought increased considerably after 1990. Current drought conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean region of MENA are moderate to severe with a 60–100% likelihood of occurrence, according to time parameters. The Gaza Strip is especially vulnerable to the consequences of increasing drought because it is situated in the vicinity of the Sinai Desert; therefore, a downscaled study of drought in the region is essential to implement mitigation measures for the sustainable management and planning of coastal aquifer and agricultural activities in the Gaza Strip. Considerable availability of precipitation time series from various meteorological stations helped provide a local drought study for the Gaza Strip, in accordance with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The stochastic time-series model of (4,0,1) (5,1,1)12 shows a robust simulator for modeling and forecasting the future trend of precipitation at the nine meteorological stations. In terms of correlation accuracy, the model achieves a correlation (r) of approximately 93–97% in the calibration range and a correlation (r) of about 92–99% in the validation range. In terms of measuring the difference between the values, the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the model results shows that the RMSE was between 7–21 in the calibration range and 11–21 in the validation range. The model reveals a slightly stable trend in precipitation patterns at the northern meteorological stations of Beit Hanon, Beit Lahia, Shati, and Remal. However, declining precipitation tendency was recorded at the southern meteorological stations of Mughraka, Nussirat, Beir Al-Balah, Khanyounis, and Rafah. The SPI-based drought assessment implies that the precipitation annual threshold levels at SPI = 0 drop territorially from 474 mm in the north to about 250 mm in the south of the Gaza Strip. In this study, a representative 12-month local scale SPI12 at an annual precipitation threshold level of 370 mm was formulated to address the drought conditions in the Gaza Strip. Standing on the outputs of the local SPI12 scale might signify that the region of the Gaza Strip risks drought status with an incidence likelihood varying from 8% in the north to 100% in the south. Regular drought is prevalent in the northern governorates, but the hazards of extreme and severe drought are high in the southern areas with an incidence risk of about 83%. Sequentially, southern governorates of Rafah and Khanyounis experience chronic annual drought, while the return period of drought is reported to be every 9–12 years in the northern governorates of the Gaza Strip. The rain-fed years of 1998 and 2010 reported the worst periods of drought, while the period of 2016 showed a good droughtless water balance. Overall, the no-drought status might define the prospective conditions in the governorates of North Gaza, Gaza, and central Gaza over the next 20 years, while Rafah and Khanyounis are anticipated to be under normal to severe drought conditions.

Effective urban planning is increasingly affected and governed by the current information society. This paper argues that the so-called third data revolution creates unprecedented challenges for su...

The amphi-boreal faunal element comprises closely related species and conspecific populations with vicarious distributions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. It originated from an initial trans-Arctic dispersal in the Pliocene after the first opening of the Bering Strait, and subsequent inter-oceanic vicariance through the Pleistocene when the passage through the Arctic was severed by glaciations and low sea levels. Opportunities for further trans-Arctic dispersal have risen at times, however, and molecular data now expose more complex patterns of inter-oceanic affinities and dispersal histories. For a general view on the trans-Arctic dynamics and of the roles of potential dispersal-vicariance cycles in generating systematic diversity, we produced new phylogeographic data sets for amphi-boreal taxa in 21 genera of invertebrates and vertebrates, and combined them with similar published data sets of mitochondrial coding gene variation, adding up to 89 inter-oceanic comparisons involving molluscs, crustaceans, echinoderms, polychaetes, fishes and mammals. Only 39% of the cases correspond to a simple history of Pliocene divergence; in most taxonomical groups, the range of divergence estimates implies connections through the entire Pliocene-Pleistocene-Holocene time frame. Repeated inter-oceanic exchange was inferred for 23 taxa, and the latest connection was usually post-glacial. Such repeated invasions have usually led to secondary contacts and occasionally to widespread hybridization between the different invasion waves. Late- or post-glacial exchange was inferred in 46% of the taxa, stressing the importance of the relatively recent invasions to the current diversity in the North Atlantic. Individual taxa also showed complex idiosyncratic patterns and histories, and several instances of cryptic speciation were recognized. In contrast to a simple inter-oceanic vicariance scenario underlying amphi-boreal speciation, the data expose complex patterns of reinvasion and reticulation that complicate the interpretation of taxon boundaries in the region.

Many marine species are shifting their distribution poleward in response to climate change. The Barents Sea, as a doorstep to the fast-warming Arctic, is experiencing large scale changes in its environment and its communities. This paper aims at understanding what environmental predictors limit fish species habitats in the Barents Sea and discuss their possible evolution in response to the warming of the Arctic.Species distribution models usually aim at predicting the probability of presence or the average abundance of a species, conditional on environmental drivers. A complementary approach is to determine suitable habitats by modelling the upper limit of a species’ response to environmental factors. Using quantile regressions, we model the upper limit of biomass for 33 fish species in the Barents Sea in response to 10 environmental predictors. Boreal species are mainly limited by temperatures and most of them are expected to be able to expand their distribution in the Barents Sea when new thermally suitable habitats become available, in the limit of bathymetric constraints. Artic species are often limited by several predictors, mainly depth, bottom and surface temperature and ice cover, and future habitats are hard to predict qualitatively. Widespread species like the Atlantic cod are not strongly limited by the selected variables at the scale of the study, and current and future suitable habitats are harder to predict. These models can be used as input to integrative tools like end-to-end models on the habitat preference and tolerance at the species scale to inform resource management and conservation.

Temperature is a key environmental parameter affecting both the phenotypes and distributions of organisms, particularly ectotherms. Rapid organismal responses to thermal environmental changes have been described for several ectotherms; however, the underlying molecular mechanisms often remain unclear. Here, we studied whole genome cytosine methylation patterns of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus) embryos from five populations with contemporary adaptations of early life history traits at either 'colder' or 'warmer' spawning grounds. We reared fish embryos in a common garden experiment using two temperatures that resembled the 'colder' and 'warmer' conditions of the natal natural environments. Genome-wide methylation patterns were similar in populations originating from colder thermal origin subpopulations, whereas single nucleotide polymorphisms uncovered from the same data identified strong population structure among isolated populations, but limited structure among interconnected populations. This was surprising because the previously studied gene expression response among populations was mostly plastic, and mainly influenced by the developmental temperature. These findings support the hypothesis of the magnified role of epigenetic mechanisms in modulating plasticity. The abundance of consistently changing methylation loci between two warmer-to-colder thermal origin population pairs suggests that local adaptation has shaped the observed methylation patterns. The dynamic nature of the methylomes was further highlighted by genome-wide and site-specific plastic responses. Our findings support both the presence of a plastic response in a subset of CpG loci, and the evolutionary role of methylation divergence between populations adapting to contrasting thermal environments.

Climate warming enables tree seedling establishment beyond the current alpine treeline, but to achieve this, seedlings have to establish within existing tundra vegetation. In tundra, mosses are a prominent feature, known to regulate soil temperature and moisture through their physical structure and associated water retention capacity. Moss presence and species identity might therefore modify the impact of increases in temperature and precipitation on tree seedling establishment at the arctic‐alpine treeline. We followed Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris seedling survival and growth during three growing seasons in the field. Tree seedlings were transplanted along a natural precipitation gradient at the subarctic‐alpine treeline in northern Sweden, into plots dominated by each of three common moss species and exposed to combinations of moss removal and experimental warming by open‐top chambers (OTCs). Independent of climate, the presence of feather moss, but not Sphagnum , strongly supressed survival of both tree species. Positive effects of warming and precipitation on survival and growth of B. pubescens seedlings occurred in the absence of mosses and as expected, this was partly dependent on moss species. P. sylvestris survival was greatest at high precipitation, and this effect was more pronounced in Sphagnum than in feather moss plots irrespective of whether the mosses had been removed or not. Moss presence did not reduce the effects of OTCs on soil temperature. Mosses therefore modified seedling response to climate through other mechanisms, such as altered competition or nutrient availability. We conclude that both moss presence and species identity pose a strong control on seedling establishment at the alpine treeline, and that in some cases mosses weaken climate‐change effects on seedling establishment. Changes in moss abundance and species composition therefore have the potential to hamper treeline expansion induced by climate warming.

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.El Efecto de la Sequía Estival sobre la Previsibilidad de las Extinciones Locales en una Metapoblación de Mariposas Resumen Los impactos ecológicos de los eventos climáticos extremos sobre las dinámicas metapoblacionales y la composición de la comunidad son profundos y predominantemente negativos. Con los extensos datos de un sistema de modelos ecológicos probamos si las predicciones de los modelos ecológicos todavía son sólidos cuando las condiciones ambientales se encuentran fuera de los límites de observación. Observamos una declinación demográfica ocurrir diez veces en la metapoblación de la mariposa Melitaea cinxia en las Islas Aland de Finlandia durante el verano de 2018. Usamos datos climáticos y satelitales para demostrar que ese año fue una anomalía al contar con valores bajos de balance hídrico e índices bajos de productividad de la vegetación en todas las islas. Las tasas de crecimiento poblacional estuvieron fuertemente asociadas con la variación espaciotemporal del balance hídrico climático. Las covarianzas que previamente han afectado a la probabilidad de extinción de las poblaciones locales de esta metapoblación fueron menos informativas cuando las poblaciones estuvieron expuestas a sequías severas durante los meses de verano. Nuestros resultados resaltan las respuestas impredecibles de las poblaciones naturales ante los eventos climáticos extremos.极端气候事件会对种群动态和群落组成产生深远的生态影响, 且主要为负面影响。本研究利用生态模型系统的大量数据, 测试了在环境条件超出观测范围时, 生态模型的预测结果是否仍然稳健。我们观测到在 2018 年夏天, 芬兰奥兰群岛的庆网蛱蝶 (Melitaea cinxia) 集合种群的种群数量下降了十倍, 同时气候和卫星数据表明奥兰群岛当年出现了气候异常, 气候水平衡值和植被生产力指数都很低。种群增长率与气候水平衡的时空变化密切相关。当种群面临夏季严重干旱时, 之前研究发现在这个集合种群中会影响当地种群灭绝概率的协变量不再能提供丰富信息。我们的研究结果强调了自然种群会对极端气候事件产生不可预测的响应。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

A comprehensive understanding of the scale dependency of environmental filtering and biotic interactions influencing the local assembly of species is paramount to derive realistic forecasts of the future of biodiversity and efficiently manage ecological communities. A classical assumption is that environmental filters are more prevalent at coarser scales with diminishing effects towards the finest scales where biotic interactions become more decisive. Recently, a refinement was proposed stipulating that the scale dependency of biotic interactions should relate to the type of interaction. Specifically, the effect of negative interactions (e.g. competition) should diminish with coarsening scale, whereas positive interactions (i.e. facilitation) should be detected irrespective of the scale. We use multiple vascular plant species datasets sampled at nested spatial scales (plot size varying from 0.04 to 64 m(2)) and recently developed joint species distribution models to test the hypotheses. Our analyses indicate slightly stronger environmental filtering with increasing plot size. While the overall strength of biotic interactions did not vary consistently across scales, we found a tendency for negative interactions to fade away with increasing plot size slightly more than positive interactions. Synthesis. We provide partial, but not unambiguous, evidence of the scale dependency of ecological assembly rules. However, our correlative methodology only allows us to interpret the findings as indication of environmental filtering and biotic interactions.

International audience; The global distribution of exotic species is the result of abiotic, biotic and dispersal filtering processes that shape the movement and success of species outside their native range. In this study we aim to understand how these filtering processes drive the fluxes of grass species among regions, the factors that influence which species establish outside of their native range, and where they do so. We used national and subnational checklists of native and introduced grass species to determine the extent to which each region was a source or recipient of exotic grass species. We asked how species traits may distinguish those grass species that have naturalized outside their native range from those that have not, and how environmental conditions are related to the distribution of exotic grass species. We found that exotic grass establishment is shaped by an array of factors including characteristics of regions, traits of species and their interactions. Regions with a longer history of human occupation and larger numbers of native grass species were generally the most important sources of exotic species. Global flows of species were mostly driven by a climate match between the native and exotic ranges, but were also highly asymmetric, with regions with recent human arrival being the major hosts of exotic grass species. Tall, annual and C4 grass species exhibited particularly high probabilities of establishment outside their native range. Despite the idiosyncrasy and stochasticity characteristic of exotic species establishment, this biogeographical analysis revealed important generalities across this large plant group. Our results suggest that grass species that have co-occurred with humans for a longer time may be better adapted to living in anthropogenic landscapes, explaining the global asymmetry in species introductions.

Coastal zones of Antarctica harbor rich but highly variable phytoplankton communities. The mechanisms that control the dynamics of these communities are not well defined. Here we elucidate the mechanisms that drive seasonal species succession, based on algal photophysiological characteristics and environmental factors. For this, phytoplankton community structure together with oceanographic parameters was studied over a 5-year period (2012–2017) at Rothera Station at Ryder Bay (Western Antarctic Peninsula). Algal pigment patterns and photophysiological studies based on fluorescence analyses were combined with data from the Rothera Time-Series program. Considerable interannual variation was observed, related to variations in wind-mixing, ice cover and an El Niño event. Clear patterns in the succession of algal classes became manifest when combining the data collected over the five successive years. In spring, autotrophic flagellates with a high light affinity were the first to profit from increasing light and sea ice melt. These algae most likely originated from sea-ice communities, stressing the role of sea ice as a seeding vector for the spring bloom. Diatoms became dominant towards summer in more stratified and warmer surface waters. These communities displayed significantly lower photoflexibility than spring communities. There are strong indications for mixotrophy in cryptophytes, which would explain much of their apparently random occurrence. Climate models predict continuing retreat of Antarctic sea-ice during the course of this century. For the near-future we predict that the marginal sea-ice zone will still harbor significant communities of haptophytes and chlorophytes, whereas increasing temperatures will mainly be beneficial for diatoms.

Terrestrial vegetation plays a crucial role in governing the land surface energy budget, which in turn drives the climate of the Earth. The climatic feedbacks of vegetation changes are different across vegetation greenness gradients and climatological conditions, which has not been studied clearly. In this study, we used remote sensing and re-analysis datasets to investigate global climatic feedbacks of vegetation changes on the surface air temperature (SAT). The Common Land Model (CoLM) was also used to reproduce land-atmosphere energy processes and to explain the climatic feedbacks based on the biophysical mechanisms. Our results show that the sensitivity of SAT to the increase in vegetation greenness presents a convergent relationship. The sign and magnitude of the sensitivity are determined by the background climate conditions. The convergence sensitivity is regulated by the corresponding variations of satellite-observed evapotranspiration (ET) and albedo, and the associated partitioning of surface energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes simulated by the CoLM. The exploration of the global climatic feedbacks of vegetation changes in this work will be helpful to identify future climate change required for the development of appropriate strategies for mitigating global warming.

Global warming compels larger endothermic animals to adapt either physiologically or behaviourally to avoid thermal stress, especially in tropical ecosystems. Their adaptive responses may however be compromised by other constraints, such as predation risk or starvation. Using an exceptional camera-trap dataset spanning 32 protected areas across southern Africa, we find that intermediate-sized herbivores (100–550 kg) switch activity to hotter times of the day when exposed to predation by lions. These herbivores face a tight window for foraging activity being exposed to nocturnal predation and to heat during the day, suggesting a trade-off between predation risk and thermoregulation mediated by body size. These findings stress the importance of incorporating trophic interactions into climate change predictions. Rising temperatures and predator avoidance constrain herbivore activity on the southern African savannas, forcing them into ever-tightening windows of activity, in a ‘timescape of fear’.

Despite its peculiar distribution, the biology of the southernmost bat species in the world, the Chilean myotis (Myotis chiloensis), has garnered little attention so far. The species has a north-south distribution of c. 2800 km, mostly on the eastern side of the Andes mountain range. Use of extended torpor occurs in the southernmost portion of the range, putting the species at risk of bat white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease responsible for massive population declines in North American bats. Here, we examined how geographic distance and topology would be reflected in the population structure of M. chiloensis along the majority of its range using a double digestion RAD-seq method. We sampled 66 individuals across the species range and discovered pronounced isolation-by-distance. Furthermore, and surprisingly, we found higher degrees of heterozygosity in the southernmost populations compared to the north. A coalescence analysis revealed that our populations may still not have reached secondary contact after the Last Glacial Maximum. As for the potential spread of pathogens, such as the fungus causing WNS, connectivity among populations was noticeably low, especially between the southern hibernatory populations in the Magallanes and Tierra del Fuego, and more northerly populations. This suggests the probability of geographic spread of the disease from the north through bat-to-bat contact to susceptible populations is low. The study presents a rare case of defined population structure in a bat species and warrants further research on the underlying factors contributing to this. See the graphical abstract here. https://doi.org/10.25387/g3.12173385

Lignin, a major constituent of lignocellulosic biomass, is the largest natural source of aromatic molecules and thus is an attractive feedstock for renewable chemical production. Direct incorporation of isolated lignin into materials has long been researched due to the idea's simplicity and the scheme's potentially high atom economy. However, due to its high chemical reactivity lignin is difficult to isolate without having it undergo uncontrolled condensation and repolymerization, which greatly hinder its ease of incorporation into polymers and other materials. Therefore, controlled chemical modifications have been and are being developed to increase lignin's compatibility with existing materials. This review presents the latest advances in lignin extraction and functionalization and their potential for improving the production of lignin-based materials.

Across a large mountain area of the western Swiss Alps, we used occurrence data (presence‐only points) of bird species to find suitable modelling solutions and build reliable distribution maps to deal with biodiversity and conservation necessities of bird species at finer scales. We have performed a multi‐scale method of modelling, which uses distance, climatic, and focal variables at different scales (neighboring window sizes), to estimate the efficient scale of each environmental predictor and enhance our knowledge on how birds interact with their complex environment. To identify the best radius for each focal variable and the most efficient impact scale of each predictor, we have fitted univariate models per species. In the last step, the final set of variables were subsequently employed to build ensemble of small models (ESMs) at a fine spatial resolution of 100 m and generate species distribution maps as tools of conservation. We could build useful habitat suitability models for the three groups of species in the national red list. Our results indicate that, in general, the most important variables were in the group of bioclimatic variables including “Bio11” (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter), and “Bio 4” (Temperature Seasonality), then in the focal variables including “Forest”, “Orchard”, and “Agriculture area” as potential foraging, feeding and nesting sites. Our distribution maps are useful for identifying the most threatened species and their habitat and also for improving conservation effort to locate bird hotspots. It is a powerful strategy to improve the ecological understanding of the distribution of bird species in a dynamic heterogeneous environment., To know better how bird species and their complex environment interact, we have performed a multi‐scale modelling method using focal variables in different scales to evaluate the efficient scale of each environmental predictor where they are influential.

China is one of the most species‐rich countries in the world, harboring many rare gymnosperms. Following recent human‐led loss of forests, China is now experiencing increases in forest cover resulting from efforts of reforestation schemes. As anthropogenic activities have previously been found to interact with topography in shaping forest cover in China and considering the large human population and the ongoing population increase of the country, it is important to understand the role of anthropogenic pressures relative to environmental drivers for shaping species distributions here. Based on the well‐established relationship between human population density and topography, we propose a hypothesis for explaining species distributions in a country dominated by human activities, predicting that species are more likely to occur in areas of steep topography under medium human population densities compared to low and high human population densities. Using species occurrence data from the Chinese Vascular Plant Distribution Database along with a common SDM method (maximum entropy modeling), we tested this hypothesis. Our results show that steep topography has the highest importance for predicting Chinese gymnosperm species occurrences in general, and threatened species specifically, in areas of medium human population densities. Consequently, these species are more often found in areas of steep terrain, supporting the proposed hypothesis. Results from this study highlight the need to include topographically heterogeneous habitats when planning new protected areas for species conservation., Topography and human activity have previously been found to affect forest cover and mammal distributions in China. Here, we test the hypothesis that gymnosperm species are more associated with steep topography in regions of medium human activity. Our results show a significantly higher importance of topography for predicting species occurrence at medium human population densities, supporting this hypothesis and highlighting the need to include topographically heterogeneous habitats when planning new protected areas for species conservation.

When organisms are unable to feed ad libitum they may be more susceptible to negative effects of environmental stressors such as ocean acidification and warming (OAW). We reared sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) at 15 or 20 °C and at ambient or high PCO2 (650 versus 1750 µatm PCO2; pH = 8.1 or 7.6) at ad libitum feeding and observed no discernible effect of PCO2 on the size-at-age of juveniles after 277 (20 °C) and 367 (15 °C) days. Feeding trials were then conducted including a restricted ration (25% ad libitum). At 15 °C, growth rate increased with ration but was unaffected by PCO2. At 20 °C, acidification and warming acted antagonistically and low feeding level enhanced PCO2 effects. Differences in growth were not merely a consequence of lower food intake but also linked to changes in digestive efficiency. The specific activity of digestive enzymes (amylase, trypsin, phosphatase alkaline and aminopeptidase N) at 20 °C was lower at the higher PCO2 level. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating restricted feeding into experimental designs examining OAW and suggests that ad libitum feeding used in the majority of the studies to date may not have been suitable to detect impacts of ecological significance.

Despite substantial biodiversity conservation efforts over the past two decades, Earth's biodiversity is rapidly declining. We identify global priorities for the expansion of marine conservation efforts, aiming to conserve at least 10% of the range of all 22,885 mapped marine species. We found that a minimum of 8.5 million km2 (2.5% of the ocean) of new conservation areas are required, and show that, in total, at least 26% of the ocean needs effective conservation to preserve marine biodiversity. For each priority area, we recommend broad conservation responses—ranging from marine protected areas to large-scale policy approaches (e.g., fisheries regulations)—best suited to mitigate threats to biodiversity in that area. With a post-2020 global biodiversity agreement currently under development, our analysis provides insights into the scale of conservation action required across the marine realm and identifies new areas that clearly warrant conservation attention.

Mainstreaming biodiversity in development cooperation activities is called for by scientists and policy-makers alike, as the current biodiversity crisis can only be mitigated if the linkages between biodiversity and human wellbeing are acknowledged. Reconciling biodiversity conservation and human development is a particularly topical challenge in highly biodiverse developing countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the population is highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihood. This study combines expert interviews with an evaluation of environmental impact assessment (EIA) reports, in order to determine the current motivations, obstacles and effectiveness of biodiversity mainstreaming in the DRC and to assess the framing, the representation and use of biodiversity in recently conducted EIAs in the DRC. Our findings indicate that biodiversity mainstreaming in the DRC is considered challenging due to enduring contextual (e.g. governance) factors; and that there is a strong support base for EIA among the interviewed experts. Turning to actual EIAs that were recently performed in the DRC, the diversity of framings motivating the uptake of biodiversity is remarkable. Instrumental reasons do not thwart intrinsic motivations –which is indicative of a support base for the non-instrumental value of biodiversity. The use of biodiversity baseline data in mitigation measures is low, and the taxonomic resolution of the biodiversity data in EIAs is uneven. Despite these challenges, the potential of EIA in the DRC is considered high, and linkages between project-driven EIA practice and biodiversity data collection and dissemination should be strengthened., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Over the past few decades the Arctic has warmed up more than the lower latitudes. Soil organic carbon (SOC) in the Arctic is vulnerable to climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO 2) produced via SOC decomposition can amplify atmospheric temperature increase. Although SOC composition is relevant to decomposability, studies on its compositional changes with warming are scarce, particularly in the Arctic. Therefore, we investigated the responses of SOC and the bacterial community to climate manipulation under Cassiope and Salix heath vegetation communities in permafrost-affected soil in Zackenberg, Greenland. After 8–9 years of experimental warming, we evaluated changes in SOC quantity and quality of three density fractions of soil: free light fraction (FLF), occluded light fraction (OLF) and heavy fraction (HF). The SOC content at 0–5-cm depth was significantly reduced with warming under Cassiope, and it was accompanied by decreased FLF content, attributed to accelerated decomposition of the FLF by warming. However, SOC molecular composition and bacterial community composition were not affected by warming. By contrast, there was no warming effect on SOC under Salix, which could be partially due to smaller temperature increases caused by higher moisture levels associated with larger silt and clay contents, or to different responses of the dominant plant species to temperature. In both soils, more than 55% of SOC was associated with minerals, and its molecular composition indicated microbial decomposition. Our results suggested that long-term warming in the high Arctic could induce the loss of SOC, particularly in the FLF; however, the response could vary with vegetation type and/or soil properties, that is, soil texture. Highlights: We show decreased SOC with long-term (8-year) warming of heath soils in the high Arctic Particularly, the free light fraction of SOC in topsoil decreased with warming in a Cassiope heath site Mineral-associated SOC content was more than 55% and showed signs of microbial processing Effects of warming differed according to soil properties and/or plant community composition.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Resilience is a key concept to deal with an uncertain future in forestry. In recent years, it has received increasing attention from both research and practice. However, a common understanding of what resilience means in a forestry context and how to operationalise it is lacking. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the recent forest science literature on resilience in the forestry context, synthesizing how resilience is defined and assessed. RECENT FINDINGS: Based on a detailed review of 255 studies, we analysed how the concepts of engineering resilience, ecological resilience and social-ecological resilience are used in forest sciences. A clear majority of the studies applied the concept of engineering resilience, quantifying resilience as the recovery time after a disturbance. The two most used indicators for engineering resilience were basal area increment and vegetation cover, whereas ecological resilience studies frequently focus on vegetation cover and tree density. In contrast, important social-ecological resilience indicators used in the literature are socioeconomic diversity and stock of natural resources. In the context of global change, we expected an increase in studies adopting the more holistic social-ecological resilience concept, but this was not the observed trend. SUMMARY: Our analysis points to the nestedness of these three resilience concepts, suggesting that they are complementary rather than contradictory. It also means that the variety of resilience approaches does not need to be an obstacle for operationalisation of the concept. We provide guidance for choosing the most suitable resilience concept and indicators based on the management, disturbance and application context. ispartof: CURRENT FORESTRY REPORTS vol:6 issue:2 pages:61-80 ispartof: location:Germany status: published

© 2019 The Royal Entomological Society 1. Dark diversity represents the set of species that can potentially inhabit a given area under particular ecological conditions, but are currently ‘missing’ from a site. This concept allows characterisation of the mechanisms determining why species are sometimes absent from an area that seems ecologically suitable for them. 2. The aim of this study was to determine the dark diversity of hoverflies in south-eastern Europe and to discuss the role of different functional traits that might increase the likelihood of species contributing to dark diversity. Based on expert opinion, the Syrph the Net database and known occurrences of species, the study estimated species pools, and observed and dark diversities within each of 11 defined vegetation types for 564 hoverfly species registered in south-eastern Europe. To detect the most important functional traits contributing to species being in dark diversity across different vegetation types, a random forest algorithm and respective statistics for variable importance were used. 3. The highest dark diversity was found for southwest Balkan sub-Mediterranean mixed oak forest type, whereas the lowest was in Mediterranean mixed forest type. Three larval feeding modes (saproxylic, and phytophagous on bulbs or roots) were found to be most important for determining the probability of a species contributing to hoverfly dark diversity, based on univariate correlations and random forest analysis. 4. This study shows that studying dark diversity might provide important insights into what drives community assembly in south-eastern European hoverflies, especially its missing components, and contributes to more precise conservation prioritisation of both hoverfly species and their habitats.

Ontogenetic niche shifts have helped to understand population dynamics. Here we show that ontogenetic niche shifts also offer an explanation, complementary to traditional concepts, as to why certain species show seasonal migration. We describe how demographic processes (survival, reproduction and migration) and associated ecological requirements of species may change with ontogenetic stage (juvenile, adult) and across the migratory range (breeding, non-breeding). We apply this concept to widely different species (dark-bellied brent geese (Branta b. bernicla), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and migratory Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) to check the generality of this hypothesis. Consistent with the idea that ontogenetic niche shifts are an important driver of seasonal migration, we find that growth and survival of juvenile life stages profit most from ecological conditions that are specific to breeding areas. We suggest that matrix population modelling techniques are promising to detect the importance of the ontogenetic niche shifts in maintaining migratory strategies. As a proof of concept, we applied a first analysis to resident, partial migratory and fully migratory populations of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis). We argue that recognition of the costs and benefits of migration, and how these vary with life stages, is important to understand and conserve migration under global environmental change. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00442-020-04682-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mangrove forests are valuable coastal ecosystems that have been shown to persist on muddy intertidal flats through bio-morphodynamic feedbacks. However, the role of coastal conditions on mangrove behavior remains uncertain. This study conducts numerical experiments to systematically explore the effects of tidal range, small wind waves, sediment supply and coastal slope on mangrove development under sea-level rise (SLR). Our results show that mangroves in micro-tidal conditions are more vulnerable because of the gentler coastal equilibrium slope and the limited ability to capture sediment, which leads to substantial mangrove landward displacement even under slow SLR. Macro-tidal conditions with large sediment supply promote accretion along the profile and platform formation, reducing mangrove vulnerability for slow and medium SLR, but still cause rapid mangrove retreat under fast SLR. Small wind waves promote sediment accretion, and exert an extra bed shear stress that confines the mangrove forest to higher elevations with more favorable inundation regimes, offsetting SLR impacts. These processes also have important implications for the development of new landward habitats under SLR. In particular, our experiments show that landward habitat can be created even with limited sediment supply and thus without complete infilling of the available accommodation space. Nevertheless, new accommodation space may be filled over time with sediment originating from erosion of the lower coastal profile. Consistent with field data, model simulations indicate that sediment accretion within the forest can accelerate under SLR, but the timing and magnitude of accretion depend non-linearly on coastal conditions and distance from the mangrove seaward edge. ispartof: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE vol:127 issue:3 ispartof: location:United States status: published

The main objective of this article is to develop a physically constrained support vector machine (SVM) to predict C-band backscatter over snow-covered terrain as a function of geophysical inputs that reasonably represent the relevant characteristics of the snowpack. Sentinel-1 observations, in conjunction with geophysical variables from the Noah-MP land surface model, were used as training targets and input datasets, respectively. Robustness of the SVM prediction was analyzed in terms of training targets, training windows, and physical constraints related to snow liquid water content. The results showed that a combination of ascending and descending overpasses yielded the highest coverage of prediction (15.2%) while root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 2.06 to 2.54 dB and unbiased RMSE ranged from 1.54 to 2.08 dB, but that the combined overpasses were degraded compared with ascending-only and descending-only training target sets due to the mixture of distinctive microwave signals during different times of the day (i.e., 6 A.M. versus 6 P.M. local time). Elongation of the training window length also increased the spatial coverage of prediction (given the sparsity of the training sets), but resulted in introducing more random errors. Finally, delineation of dry versus wet snow pixels for SVM training resulted in improving the accuracy of predicted backscatter relative to training on a mixture of dry and wet snow conditions. The overall results suggest that the prediction accuracy of the SVM was strongly linked with the first-order physics of the electromagnetic response of different snow conditions. ispartof: IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING vol:14 pages:2403-2417 ispartof: location:United States status: published

People tend to evaluate information from reliable sources more favourably, but it is unclear exactly how perceivers' worldviews interact with this source credibility effect. In a large and diverse cross-cultural sample (N = 10,195 from 24 countries), we presented participants with obscure, meaningless statements attributed to either a spiritual guru or a scientist. We found a robust global source credibility effect for scientific authorities, which we dub 'the Einstein effect': across all 24 countries and all levels of religiosity, scientists held greater authority than spiritual gurus. In addition, individual religiosity predicted a weaker relative preference for the statement from the scientist compared with the spiritual guru, and was more strongly associated with credibility judgements for the guru than the scientist. Independent data on explicit trust ratings across 143 countries mirrored our experimental findings. These findings suggest that irrespective of one's religious worldview, across cultures science is a powerful and universal heuristic that signals the reliability of information. This work was supported by funds from the Templeton Foundation (grant number 60663) to M.v.E., the Cogito Foundation (grant number R10917) to R.Mc.K., the Australian Research Council (grant number DP180102384) to N.L. and R.M.R., Templeton Religion Trust (reference TRT0196) to J.A.B., and the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (reference 17-EURE-0017 FrontCog and 10-IDEX-0001-02 PSL) to S.A. The analysis was carried out on the Dutch national e-infrastructure with the support of SURF Cooperative.

phosphorus (P) release are largely unexplored. Here we elucidated the factors behind experimentally-derived sediment release rates of P by diffusion (DF) in four Finnish lakes with a range of colour. Next, we extended our analysis to a larger set of northern lakes for further insights regarding possible implications of organic substances on sediment P release. The significant correlation between pore-water soluble reactive P and dissolved iron, and a positive effect of ironbound sedimentary P (Fe-P) on DF supports the classic paradigm of redox-dependent P release in the four Finnish lakes studied. Nevertheless, the P release from Fe-P may be inhibited by humic substances, as we observed lower Fe-P and negative DF in two humic rich lakes (high DOC). The analysis of a larger set of northern lakes supported the negative effect of humic substances on P release rate (RR) determined by in situ P increases. In this dataset, DOC correlated positively with water colour and negatively with RR. Furthermore, multiple stepwise regression analysis selected sediment total P and organic matter content in sediments (LOI) as the best predictors of RR, similar to a previously published model by Nurnberg (1988). While the model predictions (RRpred) were correlated to RR in the present study, they tended to overestimate RR that was determined in closed experimental systems. The inhibiting effects of humic substances on RR may be manifested in both internal P loading and primary production.

Soil compaction (SC) is a major threat for agriculture in Europe that affects many ecosystem functions, such as water and air circulation in soils, root growth, and crop production. Our objective was to present the results from five short-term (

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect midlatitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures. Arctic Ocean Climate change Ecology Geopolitics Indigenous Peoples Sea ice

AIM: The aim was to identify the primary drivers of compositional change in breeding bird assemblages over a 40-year period. LOCATION: Britain. TIME PERIOD: From 1970 to 2010. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED: Birds. METHODS: Using morphological trait measurements and a dataset of presence-absence data for British breeding birds surveyed in 10 km × 10 km hectads during two time periods, we calculated temporal taxonomic and functional beta diversity for each hectad alongside the change in species richness, mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD) and mean pairwise distance (MPD). We also estimated potential drivers of beta diversity, including climatic and land-use and land-cover (LULC) change variables, elevation and assemblage species richness in 1970 (1970rich). We used random forest regressions to test which variables best explained compositional change in the assemblages. We also assessed spatial taxonomic and functional change by analysing multiple-site beta diversity and pairwise dissimilarities between time periods. RESULTS: Initial (1970) species richness was the most important predictor (highest importance score) across all models, with areas characterized by higher initial richness experiencing less assemblage change overall. The coordinates included to capture spatial autocorrelation in the data were also important predictors of change. Most cli-mate and LULC variables had relatively low explanatory power; elevation and average temperature were the most influential. All metrics increased slightly with increasing elevation, except for species richness change and MPD, which decreased. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The composition of British breeding bird assemblages changed substantially between 1970 and 2010. Spatial heterogeneity increased, both taxonomically and functionally. We show evidence that hectads with larger assemblages have been buffered from temporal diversity change and that those at higher elevations changed more in composition than those at lower elevations. Overall, coarse-resolution climate and LULC explained only small to moderate amounts of variation, suggesting that stochastic assembly change or finer-scale drivers might be drivers of temporal changes in assemblage composition. British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

WOS:000733372500001; International audience; Understanding the molecular mechanisms that determine a species' life history is important for predicting their susceptibility to environmental change. While specialist species with a narrow niche breadth (NB) maximize their fitness in their optimum habitat, generalists with broad NB adapt to multiple environments. The main objective of this study was to identify general transcriptional patterns that would distinguish bacterial strains characterized by contrasted NBs along a salinity gradient. More specifically, we hypothesized that genes encoding fitness-related traits, such as biomass production, have a higher degree of transcriptional regulation in specialists than in generalists, because the fitness of specialists is more variable under environmental change. By contrast, we expected that generalists would exhibit enhanced transcriptional regulation of genes encoding traits that protect them against cellular damage. To test these hypotheses, we assessed the transcriptional regulation of fitness-related and adaptation-related genes of 11 bacterial strains in relation to their NB and stress exposure under changing salinity conditions. The results suggested that transcriptional regulation levels of fitness- and adaptation-related genes correlated with the NB and/or the stress exposure of the inspected strains. We further identified a shortlist of candidate stress marker genes that could be used in future studies to monitor the susceptibility of bacterial populations or communities to environmental changes.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) presently holds enough ice to raise global sea level by 4.3 m if completely melted. The unknown response of the WAIS to future warming remains a significant challenge for numerical models in quantifying predictions of future sea level rise. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of human-induced climate change. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Warming of 2 ∘C (SWAIS 2C) Project aims to understand past and current drivers and thresholds of WAIS dynamics to improve projections of the rate and size of ice sheet changes under a range of elevated greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere as well as the associated average global temperature scenarios to and beyond the +2 ∘C target of the Paris Climate Agreement. Despite efforts through previous land and ship-based drilling on and along the Antarctic margin, unequivocal evidence of major WAIS retreat or collapse and its causes has remained elusive. To evaluate and plan for the interdisciplinary scientific opportunities and engineering challenges that an International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) project along the Siple coast near the grounding zone of the WAIS could offer (Fig. 1), researchers, engineers, and logistics providers representing 10 countries held a virtual workshop in October 2020. This international partnership comprised of geologists, glaciologists, oceanographers, geophysicists, microbiologists, climate and ice sheet modelers, and engineers outlined specific research objectives and logistical challenges associated with the recovery of Neogene and Quaternary geological records from the West Antarctic interior adjacent to the Kamb Ice Stream and at Crary Ice Rise. New geophysical surveys at these locations have identified drilling targets in which new drilling technologies will allow for the recovery of up to 200 m of sediments beneath the ice sheet. Sub-ice-shelf records have so far proven difficult to obtain but are critical to better constrain marine ice sheet sensitivity to past and future increases in global mean surface temperature up to 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, the scientific and technological advances developed through this program will enable us to test whether WAIS collapsed during past intervals of warmth and determine its sensitivity to a +2 ∘C global warming threshold (UNFCCC, 2015).

To date, most regional and global hydrological models either ignore the representation of cropland or consider crop cultivation in a simplistic way or in abstract terms without any management practices. Yet, the water balance of cultivated areas is strongly influenced by applied management practices (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization, and harvesting). The SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model represents agricultural land by default in a generic way, where the start of the cropping season is driven by accumulated heat units. However, this approach does not work for tropical and subtropical regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where crop growth dynamics are mainly controlled by rainfall rather than temperature. In this study, we present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated croplands with the associated cropping calendar and fertilizer applications in a regional SWAT+ model for northeastern Africa. We evaluate the influence of the crop phenology representation on simulations of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) using LAI remote sensing data from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) and WaPOR (Water Productivity through Open access of Remotely sensed derived data) ET data, respectively. Results show that a representation of crop phenology using global datasets leads to improved temporal patterns of LAI and ET simulations, especially for regions with a single cropping cycle. However, for regions with multiple cropping seasons, global phenology datasets need to be complemented with local data or remote sensing data to capture additional cropping seasons. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates, as the timing of crop cover controls erosion rates in the model. With more realistic growing seasons, soil erosion is largely reduced for most agricultural hydrologic response units (HRUs), which can be considered as a move towards substantial improvements over previous estimates. We conclude that regional and global hydrological models can benefit from improved representations of crop phenology and the associated management practices. Future work regarding the incorporation of multiple cropping seasons in global phenology data is needed to better represent cropping cycles in areas where they occur using regional to global hydrological models.