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Background: In 2011, the courts ruled in favor of tobacco companies in preventing the implementation of graphic warning labels (GWLs) in the US, stating that FDA had not established the effectiveness of GWLs in reducing smoking. Methods: Data came from various sources: the WHO MPOWER package (GWLs, MPOWER policy measures, cigarette prices), Euromonitor International (smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption), and the World Bank database (countries’ demographic characteristics). The datasets were aggregated and linked using country and year identifiers. Fractional logit regressions and OLS regressions were applied to examine the associations between GWLs and smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption, controlling for MPOWER policy scores, cigarette prices, GDP per capita, unemployment, population aged 15–64 (%), aged 65 and over (%), year indicators, and country fixed effects. Results: GWLs were associated with a 0.9–3 percentage point decrease in adult smoking prevalence and were significantly associated with a reduction of 230–287 sticks in per capita cigarette consumption, compared to countries without GWLs. However, the association between GWLs and cigarette consumption became statistically insignificant once country indicators were included in the models. Conclusions: The implementation of GWLs may be associated with reduced cigarette smoking.

This paper analyzes smoking prevalence and smoking behaviors in Papua New Guinea. Using the 2009–10 Papua New Guinea Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the paper analyzes the determinants of tobacco use and tobacco choices in Papua New Guinea. The results show that adults (18 years and above) in the poorest quartile are more likely to smoke. Tobacco consumption imposes a large financial burden to poor households. Tobacco consumption accounts for about 23 percent of total household food expenditure for households in the poorest quartile, compared with 15 percent for the entire sample. However, most of these households consume non-processed tobacco. The study reveals the urgency to control tobacco consumption in Papua New Guinea and considers some practical challenges that the country may face.

Background The prevalence and correlates of hardcore smokers, who have high daily cigarette consumption, no quitting history and no intention to quit, have been studied in several western developed countries, but no previous trials of smoking cessation have tested intervention effectiveness for these smokers. The current study examined if hardcore smokers can benefit from smoking reduction intervention to achieve cessation, and explored the underlying reasons. Methods A posteriori analysis was conducted on data from a randomized controlled trial of smoking reduction intervention on 1,154 smokers who did not want to quit. Odds ratios of 7-day point prevalence of abstinence, smoking reduction by at least 50% and quit attempt at the 6-month follow-up comparing subgroups of smokers were analyzed. Results In hardcore smokers, the odds ratio comparing the quit rate between the intervention and control group was 4.18 (95% CI: 0.51-34.65), which was greater than non-hardcore smokers (OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 0.98-2.54). The number needed to treat for hardcore and non-hardcore smokers was 8.33 (95% CI: 5.56-16.67) and 16.67 (95% CI: 8.33-233.64), respectively. In smokers who did not have quit attempt experience and those who smoked more than 15 cigarettes daily, the odds ratio comparing intervention and control group was 3.29 (95% CI: 0.72-14.98) and 1.36 (95% CI: 0.78-2.36), respectively. Conclusions The a posteriori analysis provided pilot results that smoking reduction intervention may be effective to help hardcore smokers to quit and reduce smoking. Having no previous quit attempt was identified as more important than having large cigarette consumption in explaining the greater effectiveness of the intervention. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12971-015-0034-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

In this note we use the Rank-Dependent Expected-Utility (RDEU) model to analyse how the effect of improved information on smoking risks impacts the consumption of cigarettes. The RDEU model enables us to incorporate the ways individuals perceive smoking risks. We provide conditions for individuals to modify cigarette consumption in the face of improved information, and we show that these conditions depend in particular on the probability of being ill.

This paper investigates the impact of the public smoking ban which came into effect in Italy on January 2005 on individual smoking behaviour. Current empirical evidence supports the existence of a negative effect of the Italian ban on smoking prevalence and consumption in the general population. This is in contrast to what has been found in some other European coun- tries. Our analysis shows that the apparent success of the Italian smoking ban is due to the fact that existing results do not take into account seasonal differences in smoking behaviour. Using quarterly data from the 1999/2000 and 2004/2005 Italian Health Surveys and adopting a difference-in-difference approach that nets out monthly variation in smoking rates, we show that the Italian smoking ban had no impact on individual smoking behaviour for the population as a whole, and only small effects on some groups of individuals.

15 p., Se determinó la asociación entre conocimientos y actitudes frente al inicio del hábito de fumar en estudiantes universitarios. Materiales y métodos: Estudio de corte transversal realizado mediante una encuesta auto-diligenciada por 433 estudiantes seleccionados aleatoriamente entre abril y mayo de 2010. Se realizaron análisis de regresión de Poisson simple y múltiple y se calcularon las razones de prevalencia (RP) crudas y ajustadas. Resultados: Se encontró que ser hombre (RP = 1,62; IC95%: 1,21-2,18) y conocer la legislación colombiana sobre tabaco (RP = 1,75; IC95%: 1,25-2,45) aumenta la probabilidad de inicio del hábito tabáquico durante la carrera. En contraste, conocer que generalmente los fumadores mueren más jóvenes (RP = 0,72; IC95%: 0,53-0,98), que la mayoría de pacientes con cáncer de pulmón son o han sido fumadores (RP = 0,64; IC95%: 0,46-0,89) y considerar el fumar un vicio (RP = 0,58; IC95%: 0,42-0,80) o una drogodependencia (RP = 0,48; IC95%: 0,27- 0,82) están asociados con menor probabilidad de inicio del hábito de fumar durante la vida universitaria. Conclusión: El conocimiento sobre los efectos de fumar disminuye el inicio de este hábito durante la carrera., Determinou se a associação entre conhecimentos e atitudes frente ao inicio do hábito de fumar em estudantes universitários. Metodologia: Estudo de corte transversal realizado mediante uma enquete autopreenchida por 433 estudantes selecionados aleatoriamente entre abril e maio de 2010. Realizaram se analise de regressão de Poisson simples e múltiplo e se calcularam as razoes de prevalências (RP) severas e ajustadas. Resultados: Encontrou se que ser homem (RP = 1,62; IC95%: 1,21-2,18) e conhecer a legislação colombiana sobre tabaco (RP = 1,75; IC95%: 1,25-2,45) aumenta a probabilidade de inicio de habito tabagismo durante os estudos universitários. Em contraste, conhecer que geralmente os fumantes morrem mais jovens (RP = 0,72; IC95%: 0,53-0,98), que a maioria de pacientes com câncer de pulmão é ou tem sido fumantes ou uma drogo-dependencia (RP = 0,48; IC95%: 0,27-0,82) estão associados com menor probabilidade de inicio do habito de fumar durante a vida universitária. Conclusões: O conhecimento sobre os efeitos de fumar diminuiu inicio deste habito durante os estudos universitários., The association between knowledge and attitudes before the onset of smoking during college life in college students was determined. Materials and Methods: Cross-sectional study carried out through self-report survey in a sample of 433 students randomly selected between April and May 2010. Simple and multiple Poisson regression analysis were carried put and, crude and adjusted prevalence reasons (PR) were calculated. Results: We found that being male (PR = 1.62; 95%CI: 1.21- 2.18) and knowing Colombian legislation about tobacco use (PR = 1.75; 95%CI: 1.25-2.45) increases the likelihood of smoking onset during college. In contrast, knowing that smokers generally die younger than nonsmokers (PR = 0.72; 95%CI: 0.53-0.98), that most patients with lung cancer are or have been smokers (PR = 0.64; 95%CI: 0.46-0.89), and considering smoking is a bad habit (PR = 0.58; 95%CI: 0.42-0.80) or a drug dependence (PR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.27-0.82) are associated with lower likelihood of smoking onset during college. Conclusion: Knowledge about the effects of smoking decreases the onset of smoking during college life.

The issue of smoking was discussed a lot in the past decades. Countries all over the world try to lower the consumption of cigarettes by a lot of various means. This thesis examines the relationship between excise tax and also a few anti-smoking measures and consumption of cigarettes in Czech Republic. To find out if there is some influence, we are building two econometric models. According to both models, there is no statistically significant relationship between the consumption of cigarettes and the excise tax, commercials ban or antismoking campaigns of EU. It is probably caused by not enough observations. In addition, we found effect of frontloading connected to an increase of excise tax.

El presente estudio, con un diseño cuasiexperimental pre - test, pos - test de grupos pareados, tenía como objetivo evaluar el efecto de la aplicación de una intervención basada en el Proceso de Adopción de Precauciones (PAP) en la disminución o abandono del consumo de cigarrillo en estudiantes universitarios de tres Instituciones de Educación Superior. En la investigación se retomaron elementos claves del PAP: motivación, percepción de vulnerabilidad, susceptibilidad, costos y beneficios, balance decisional y cambio como resultado primero de un funcionamiento cognitivo y luego de la planeación, así como el resultado del paso consecutivo por siete etapas. A partir de estos elementos se desarrolló una intervención que se aplicó a través de 6 sesiones de trabajo y al finalizar se compararon los resultados de las pruebas pre y post del grupo experimental con las del control. Para clasificar a las personas en el grupo experimental o en el grupo control se utilizó el Cuestionario para la Clasificación de Consumidores de Cigarrillo (C4) Londoño y Rodríguez, (2007), el Cuestionario de Expectativas hacia el Cigarrillo (CEC) Londoño y Rodríguez, (en prensa) y el Cuestionario de Motivación (Tentación). Los resultados mostraron diferencias significativas entre los grupos en las medidas de nivel consumo, expectativas y motivación, (Londoño y Rodríguez, 2007). Finalmente se discuten estos y otros hallazgos importantes. The present study, that used a quasi-experimental pre-test post-test design for paired groups, aimed at assessing the effect of an intervention based on the so called Precautions Adoption Process (PAP) in the reduction or cessation of smoking in university students from three Higher Education Institutions. The research took into account some key elements of PAP: motivation, vulnerability perception, susceptibility, cost and benefit, decisional balance and change, as a result of cognitive functioning and planning in the first place, and later to the passage through seven consecutive stages. Starting from these elements, an intervention program was developed and implemented in six work sessions. At the end, results from pre-test and post -test measurements of both the experimental and control groups were compared. In order to classify participants for each one of these groups several instruments were used: The Classification of Cigarette Consumers Questionnaire (C4) by Londoño, Rodríguez y Gantiva (in press), the Expectations Regarding Cigarettes Questionnaire (CEC) by Londoño y Rodríguez (2007) and the Motivation Questionnaire (Temptation). Results showed significant differences between groups in the level of consumption, expectations and motivation (Londoño y Rodríguez, 2007). These and other important findings are discussed. O objetivo deste estudo -com um desenho quase-experimental pré e pós-teste de grupos pareados- es avaliar o efeito da aplicação de uma intervenção baseada no processo de adoção de precaução (PAP) na redução ou cessação do tabagismo entre estudantes de três instituições universitárias. Retomaram-se elementos fundamentais do PAP: motivação, percepção de vulnerabilidade, suscetibilidade, custos e benefícios, balance de decisão e mudança como resultado de uma função cognitiva, do planejamento e da passagem de sete etapas consecutivas. A partir destes elementos, se desenvolveu uma intervenção distribuída em seis sessões de trabalho. Depois, compararam-se os resultados das provas de pré e pós-teste do grupo experimental com as do grupo de controle. Para classificar as pessoas no grupo experimental ou no grupo controle, utilizou-se o Questionário de Classificação de Consumidores Tentativa (C4) de Londoño y Rodríguez (2007), o Questionário de Expectativas para o Cigarro (CEC), de Londoño y Rodriguez (no prelo) e o Questionário de Motivação (Tentação). Os resultados mostraram diferenças significativas entre os grupos nas medidas de nível de consumo, expectativas e motivação (Londoño y Rodríguez, 2007). Finalmente, discutimos estes e outros resultados importantes.

Using aggregated panel data taken from three waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (1993–2000), this article tests the myopic addiction behaviour of cigarette demand. Sensitivity analysis is done by examining a rational addiction behavior of cigarette demand. The results provide support for myopic addiction. The short- and long-run price elasticities of cigarette demand are estimated at −0.28 and −0.73 respectively. Excise taxes are more likely to act as an effective tobacco control in the long-run rather than a major source of government revenue.

This paper investigates the short-term effects of public smoking bans on individual smoking behavior. In 2007 and 2008, state-level smoking bans were gradually introduced in all of Germany's federal states. We exploit this variation to identify the effect that smoke-free policies had on individuals’ smoking propensity and smoking intensity. Using rich longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, our difference-in-differences estimates show that the introduction of smoke-free legislation in Germany did not change average smoking behavior within the population. However, our estimates point to important heterogeneous effects. Individuals who go out more often to bars and restaurants did adjust their smoking behavior. Following the ban, they became less likely to smoke and also smoked less. NOTICE: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Health Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Health Economics 30 (2011), 3, pp. 591-601 and is online available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2011.03.003.

This bachelor thesis is focused on the analysis of excise taxes in the Czech Republic since joining the European Union on 1 May 2004. The main object is to analyse changes in the burden of selected products excise and influence of the EU legislation on these changes. In the theoretical part the Czech Law on Excise Tax and its changes after 2003 is described and furthermore, the EU directives in this area especially the Council Directive 2008/118/EC concerning the general arrangements for excise duty are mentioned. The practical part is applied in particular to cigarette taxes. It is focused on the most popular cigarette brands like Start, Petra, L&M, Camel and Marlboro. The analysis obtains the calculation of cigarette tax between the years 2003 {--} 2010. Cigarette consumption in the Czech Republic is compared with the consumption in member states. There is also a comparison with member states regarding an overall minimum excise duty, a retail selling price of cigarettes in the most popular price category and revenues from excise duties on cigarettes.

This paper investigates the short-term effects of public smoking bans on individual smoking behavior. In 2007 and 2008, state-level smoking bans were gradually introduced in all of Germany's sixteen federal states. We exploit this variation in the timing of state bans to identify the effect that smoke-free policies had on individuals' smoking propensity and smoking intensity. Using rich longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, our difference-in-differences estimates show that the introduction of smoke-free legislation in Germany did not change average smoking behavior within the population. However, our estimates also point to important heterogeneous effects. Groups that go out more often, and hence are more exposed to the constraints of public smoking bans in everyday life, did adjust their smoking behavior. Specifically, we find that young, unmarried individuals, and those living in urban areas are groups that are both less likely to smoke and smoke less intensively following the introduction of public smoking bans. Furthermore, effects on individual smoking habits proved stronger in states that had more strict smoking bans. Public smoking bans, therefore, have important health benefits over and above the reduction in exposure of non-smokers to second-hand smoke that is their immediate and prime objective. Das vorliegende Papier untersucht anhand von Daten des Sozio-Oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) die kurzfristige Wirkung von öffentlichen Rauchverboten auf das Rauchverhalten in Deutschland. In den Jahren 2007 und 2008 wurden sukzessive Rauchverbote in allen sechzehn Bundesländern eingeführt. Diese zeitliche Variation erlaubt die Messung der Auswirkung von Rauchverboten auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Individuen zu rauchen sowie auf die Höhe ihres Zigarettenkonsums. Die Ergebnisse unserer Differenzen-in-Differenzen Schätzungen zeigen, dass die Verbote das durchschnittliche Rauchverhalten in der Bevölkerung insgesamt nicht beeinflussten. Doch finden wir relevante Effekte für Personengruppen, die traditionell häufiger ausgehen (jüngere Jahrgänge, unverheiratete Personen und Einwohner größerer Städte). Diese sind durch ihr häufigeres Ausgehverhalten den Beschränkungen von Rauchverboten im Alltag stärker ausgesetzt und weisen in Folge der Verbote niedrigere Wahrscheinlichkeiten auf, zu rauchen. Ferner finden sich Hinweise, dass sich striktere Rauchverbote stärker auf das Rauchverhalten auswirkten. Rauchverbote haben somit, neben ihrem eigentlichen Ziel, das Ausmaß des Passivrauchens im öffentlichen Raum zu reduzieren, eine wichtige und zusätzliche gesundheitsfördernde Wirkung.

It has long been recognized that cigarette and alcohol not only have adverse health effects, but also negative externalities imposed on third parties. If cigarette and alcohol are related in consumption, the information on the way in which they are related may allow a better coordination of the public policies concerning these goods. In this study, we use the expenditure data of a panel of US households to analyze the relation between cigarette and alcohol consumption in a rational addiction framework. We believe that individual level data would be a better tool to analyze addictive behavior as aggregate data might conceal much of micro behavior. We found that cigarettes and alcoholic beverages are substitutes. However, both cigarette and alcohol demand do not fit the rational addiction model so well.

In this paper we examine tobacco economics in Croatia. The research covers multiple issues of tobacco economics: health risks, tobacco control and regulation compliance, cigarette production, imports and exports, taxation and its fiscal effects as well as retail price structure. Our main research issue however is taxation and price elasticity of cigarette demand. We have tested the hypothesis that price elasticity of cigarette demand in Croatia is low. We have compared Croatia's tobacco consumption related health risks to other countries in transition. As a response to an increased smoking-related health risks, anti-smoking regulations have been recently introduced in Croatia, and more strict legislation is coming in force to comply with EU tobacco control regulatory framework. However, tobacco law enforcement is still an outstanding issue in Croatia. The tobacco industry is a significant part of the Croatian economy, yet characterized by almost monopolistic domestic cigarette industry. The annual production (15.6 billion of cigarettes in 2003) is increasing, as well as exports. Croatia is a regional net cigarette exporter with the almost exclusive exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina (57%) and Serbia and Montenegro (35%). Cigarette imports in Croatia account for less than 0.5% percent of total cigarette demand. Taxation of tobacco products is considered important source of government budget revenues. The revenues from excise taxes on tobacco products represent about 3% of total budget revenues in Croatia. However, the share of taxes in retail price of cigarettes is about 75%, what is in line with the share of taxes in EU countries. It leads us to conclude that there is not much room left to increase the excise taxes in the future. Beside various research surveys on smoking prevalence (Croatia is at par with the prevalence for all countries in 2000 i.e. about 30% of adult population are smokers), officially reliable data on cigarette consumption are still lacking. Therefore it is difficult to evaluate tobacco control policies, especially the economic effects. In this paper we have used Household Budget Survey data in order to estimate the cigarette price elasticity. Cigarette consumption in Croatia is price inelastic. Price elasticity is -0.36. Despite that 10% of increase in price will result in 3.6% decrease in quantity of cigarettes consumed, it is hard to argue for further tax rise. Given high price differential with neighboring countries, it would increase smuggling and distort further tobacco taxation effects. When considering the health issues, inelastic demand points towards the fact the tax increase on cigarettes alone is not the single, most optimal tobacco control tool. In terms of recommendations for further research, the suggestion is to explore the differences in the price sensitivity of demand among different socio-economic groups. More in depth qualitative evaluations of anti-smoking policies would be possible if detailed surveys on cigarette consumption would be regularly available for Croatia.

We investigate the effectiveness of different smoking policies on the decision to quit smoking using a choice experiment on a sample of habitual smokers. Our results indicate that restricted availability, increased cigarette prices, cessation subsidies and regulations at restaurants, bars and cafés increase the probability of smoking cessation. Regulations at work places do not seem to have any effect. The results also show the significant role of limited self-control; smokers who have the intent to quit smoking are more likely to quit smoking if a stricter regulation is implemented. Furthermore, smokers who have received advice from their children to quit smoking or who perceive the health risks as considerable, are more likely to quit smoking.

The health risk of smoking is valued using the contingent valuation method, applied to a Swedish sample of smokers. The respondents were asked to put a value on newly developed cigarettes with no associated health risks. The average additional willingness to pay for the new cigarettes is estimated to be between10 and 41 SEK per packet. Using medical data on life shortening effects of smoking, the results indicate fairly reasonable values put on a lost life year, compared to existing estimates based on other methods. However, there are remaining methodological questions and we found little sensitivity to scope.

The aim of this paper is to analyze business owners' expected changes in turnover due to a general smoking ban in restaurants, bars and cafés in Sweden. This is accomplished using a survey mailed out to all 642 restaurants, bars, cafés and nightclubs in Gothenburg. The results show that the dependence on smoking customers and the beliefs on how the whole restaurant sector would be affected are in terms of size and statistical significance, the most important variables for explaining expectations of changes in turnover. The econometric results show that the owners are more likely to expect a decrease in turnover the larger the share of smoking customers is. Moreover, owners are less likely to expect financial losses due to a general smoking ban if establishments do not currently allow smoking or have a non-smoking section. No strong effect of the type of establishment on expected changes in turnover is detected, even though establishments with late night hours are more likely to expect financial losses. The study also, tentatively, concludes that many owners do not take general equilibrium effects into account, which may bias their expectations of turnover downwards. Resistance to a general smoking ban is not only explained by an expected loss in turnover, but also by the owners' attitudes towards customers smoking, property right over air space, and perception of the restaurant sector turnover. Resistance to a smoking ban is also greater among bars/nightclubs and restaurants compared to cafés.

Summary This article is aimed to analyze the current situation of the tobacco epidemic in Mexico as well as progress in the struggle against tobacco. Mexico was the first country in the Americas to ratify the framework convention on tobacco control (FCTC). Currently, 36% of men over 18 are smokers and among women there is a prevalence of 13%. Besides this, 26% of the population is exposed to tobacco smoke from other smokers in the home. These figures vary slightly according to the source, and the definition used for smoker. Among adolescents, the initiation of tobacco consumption tends constantly towards an earlier age and no differences exist between men and women. In both cases, 19% had smoked in the month previous to the application of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey and 46% cohabit with other smokers. Among the principal challenges faced is the need to limit the access of minors to tobacco, as 37% of adolescent smokers buy cigarettes in the shops and 62% were not denied the purchase, because they were under age. Mortality attributable to tobacco in Mexico is estimated to be in the tens of thousands. Recently, a conservative estimate calculated that 25,383 deaths occur annually among those over 35 years of age, related to causes attributable to tobacco consumption.

SummaryAlthough smoking cessation is clearly beneficial, many smokers respond poorly to smoking cessation efforts with rather disappointing overall success rate of long-term abstinence. The perceived lack of effectiveness of smoking cessation may well influence how physicians set their priorities with regard to an effective use of their consultation time. Negative beliefs and attitudes can be resolved by advancing the general understanding of the natural history of quitting, by making sensible use of smoking cessation services, and by being aware of the correct use of drugs for nicotine dependence when prescribed. In particular, a better understanding of predictors of success in smoking cessation can help physicians in id entifying smokers who stand a fair chance of quitting. The purpose of the present article is to review those predictors of smoking cessation that can be of help in routine clinical consultation.

Background Previous studies have found mixed results about cigarette and alcohol consumption patterns among rural-to-urban migrants. Moreover, there are limited longitudinal data about consumption patterns in this population. As such, this study aimed to compare the smoking and heavy drinking prevalence among rural, urban, and rural-to-urban migrants in Peru, as well as the smoking and heavy drinking incidence in a 5-year follow-up. Methods We analyzed the PERU MIGRANT Study data from rural, urban, and rural-to-urban migrant populations in Peru. The baseline study was carried out in 2006–2007 and follow-up was performed five years later. For the baseline data analysis, the prevalence of lifetime smoking, current smokers, and heavy drinking was compared by population group using prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). For the longitudinal analysis, the incidence of smoking and heavy drinking was compared by population group with risk ratios (RR) and 95% CI. Poisson regression with robust variance was used to calculate both PRs and RRs. Results We analyzed data from 988 participants: 200 rural dwellers, 589 migrants, and 199 urban dwellers. Compared with migrants, lifetime smoking prevalence was higher in the urban group (PR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.64–3.20), but lower in the rural group (PR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.31–0.99). Compared with migrants, the urban group had a higher current smoking prevalence (PR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.26–4.16), and a higher smoking incidence (RR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.03–7.34). Current smoking prevalence and smoking incidence showed no significant difference between rural and migrant groups. The prevalence and incidence of heavy drinking was similar across the three population groups. Conclusions Our results show a trend in lifetime smoking prevalence (urban > migrant > rural), while smoking incidence was similar between migrant and rural groups, but higher in the urban group. In addition, our results suggest that different definitions of smoking status could lead to different smoking rates and potentially different measures of association. The prevalence and incidence of heavy drinking were similar between the three population groups.

Objective: We aim to evaluate the costs and benefits of various tobacco elimination policies, specifically, an immediate taxation option and eight tax-combined long-term cessation programs. Methods: We combine demographic projections for the period 2012-2050 with incidence and mortality rates of four major cigarette related diseases, price elasticity of cigarette demand and unit costs of nonprice measures to reduce demand in order to estimate the net present discounted values of policy alternatives. Results: The tax-combined cessation programs yield lower net costs to households and the society when they phase out smoking earlier. However, immediate taxation option is found to be superior, for both households and the society, to all tax-combined cessation programs irrespective of the duration of intervention. While all policies are estimated to yield significant reductions in the expected number of smoking related diseases and deaths, a class-based 20-year intervention is found to be the most effective program. Conclusions: Although immediate taxation policy and tax-combined class-based 20-year intervention program emerge as the best tobacco elimination policies for the society, more research is needed on assessing the cost-effectiveness, applicability and social desirability of these alternatives and on designing additional policies to overcome their limitations. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.