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Abstract This paper is the pioneer research considering impacts of new residential stamp duty on TOM. This paper covers space and time information of property transaction via spatial–temporal model, which overcomes the deficits of previous studies by only capturing temporal information. A spatial model selection scheme is adopted in this paper which largely reduces the subjective model selection bias. The results of this paper enable to test and support the important housing theory: when the new residential stamp duty is executed, buyers' options are limited then TOM is reduced. The reduced TOM implied that buyers intend to suffer high transaction tax of the property on the condition that new residential stamp duty is enforced. They believe that performance of property asset still outperforms the other investment vehicles in Hong Kong. The results of this paper provide valuable information on policy making. Highlights • It covers space and time information of housing transaction by research method. • It overcomes the deficits of previous paper by only capturing temporal information. • A spatial model selection scheme is adopted which reduces the estimation bias. • The results enable to test and support the important housing theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper models shipping lines’ operational costs and CO 2 emissions under alternative geographic network configurations when an emission charge is imposed on operations from Asia to Europe. Our modeling results suggest that shipping firms’ network configuration is influenced by emission charge, fuel price, port loading and unloading cost, and demand pattern of cargo transport across different markets. Total emission will be reduced by an EU emission charge scheme. However, if the charge is above a threshold, carriers will reconfigure shipping networks to minimize their costs including emission charge payments. This will offset part of the emission reduction achieved by the emission scheme. As a result, a higher charge does not always lead to a higher emission reduction. The performance of major ports along the Asia-Europe routes will be influenced in different ways, leading to conflicting views from regional governments. These findings reveal possible regulation costs and market distortions associated with regional emission systems, and highlight the complex effects of international environmental policies when market dynamics are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents pioneering research investigating the effects of semi-obnoxious facilities on subdivided units (SDUs) via a spatial econometric method. It overcomes the shortcomings of previous studies by employing a spatial-temporal model with the best fit. The paper also considers the effects of the Hong Kong Urban Renewal Authority's proposed urban renewal strategy on SDUs. The study's key findings are in following folds. Initially, the tenants of SDUs pay 39% more in rent than the tenants of market rate housing. Subsequently, accessibility of schools is a primary concern for SDU residents. Thirdly, SDU tenants are willing to live close to disamenities in exchange for lower rent and convenience services provided by semi-obnoxious facilities. Last but not least, proximity to urban rehabilitation projects increase the rehabilitation chances of SDUs. These findings have important implications for urban planners and policymakers in wider geographical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distinguishing investors into speculators and operators, and classifying the former group into momentum and contrarian investors, we develop a heterogeneous agent model (HAM) to examine the dynamics of price of second-hand dry bulk ships. The results suggest that momentum strategies based on short-term measures of earnings perform significantly better than the contrarian or passive (buy-and-hold) strategies. The HAM seems to capture the dynamics of vessel prices and the investors’ behavior in the market for ships very well. Finally, an increase in participation of momentum investors tends to increase price volatility, whereas higher demand from contrarian investors seems to lower price variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Set up a model for carrier-shipper structures versus market demand and spot rate. • Reveal different roles of the long-term contract and the spot freight rate. • Study the impact of risk-aversion of shipper on performances. • Fluctuations of market demand and spot rate have different impacts. • Design coordination solutions initiated by the carrier for the shipper. The spot freight market in the liner shipping industry has developed significantly in recent years and interplays with the long-term contract between carriers and shippers. Under this background, this paper presents a Stackelberg games model by taking into account both the carrier's long-term decision (on freight rate) as well as the shipper's long-term decision (on shipment capacity procurement amount) and spot market supplementary procurement decision. The shipper is risk-averse facing market uncertainty. Three basic shipping structures are considered: procuring only from carrier with long-term contract, only from spot market, and from both of these channels. We show that dual channels play different roles for the shipper. Although the spot market is not favourable for the carrier, it increases both the shipper's utility and the carrier-shipper's overall performance. Risk-aversion reduces the shipment capacity procurement amount, which protects the shipper but jeopardizes the carrier's and the carrier-shipper's overall performance. Fluctuations of market demand and spot freight rate have different (sometimes even opposite) impacts on the carrier and the shipper. Correlation of market demand and spot freight rate brings more uncertainty for the shipper but grants more leverage for the carrier. Coordination initiated by the carrier improves the carrier-shipper's overall performance substantially, but full coordination is not feasible owing to the shipper's aversion to risk. Quantity-discount rather than two-part tariff contract works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collision accident accounts for the largest proportion among all types of maritime accidents, emergency decision-making is essential to reduce the consequence of such accidents. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian Network based emergency decision-making model for consequence reduction of individual ship-ship collision in the Yangtze River. The kernel of this method is to propose a three-layer decision-making framework, to develop the graphical structure for describing the accident process and to establish the conditional probability tables for the quantitative relationships. The merits of the proposed method include the intuitive representation of accident development, easy to implement, ability to deal with incomplete information and updated information. This proposed method is applied to a typical collision accident in the Yangtze River. Consequently, this paper provides a practical and novel decision-making method for collision accidents. • Bayesian Network based emergency decision-making model for consequence reduction of individual ship-ship collision. • Intuitive representation, easy to implement, ability to deal with incomplete and updated information. • Practical and novel decision-making method for collision accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a novel low-cost and independent method to estimate five key performance indicators: ships traffic; berth utilization and allocation; handling efficiency; throughput; and oil spill risk. The results obtained through this method can be used as reference for oil port operation optimization and risk control. Performance indicators are estimated in real time by using AIS data and maritime open data instead of relying on the manually collected and unverifiable official data. These performance indicators are found to be directly related to the number of handling events and the corresponding handled quantity in the ports. Therefore, this paper first identifies handling events and records the corresponding berthing time and berth. Second, the handling efficiency and time are estimated to calculate the handling quantity of each tanker. Third, the identified handling events and the corresponding handling quantity are aggregated into port level in chronological order so as to extract the key performance indicators. Finally, data of an oil terminal in the Guangzhou are taken as a case to verify the feasibility and reliability of the proposed method. Image 1 • A novel real-time, low-cost and independent method to estimate oil port performance indicators is presented. • Ship traffic, berth utilization and allocation, handling efficiency, throughput, and oil spill risk are estimated. • A case study of Guangzhou's oil port is applied to verify this novel method. • First work on real-time oil port performance measurement using AIS and maritime open data instead of statistical data. • To support oil port operation optimization, risk analysis and control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a fuzzy logic-based intelligent decision-making approach for navigation strategy selection in the inland traffic separation scheme. The dynamic characteristics of navigation process, including free navigation, ship following and ship overtaking, are further analysed. The proposed model can be implemented in the decision support system for safe navigation or be included in the process of autonomous navigation. The decision-making model is achieved from the perception-anticipation-inference-strategy perspective, and the dynamic features of ships (i.e. speed, distance, and traffic flow) are comprehensively considered in the modelling process. From the results of both scenarios for overtaking and following, it illustrates that the timing is significant for strategy selection and should well consider the complex situation and ship behaviours, moreover, the proposed approach can be used for intelligent strategy selection. • Fuzzy logic-based intelligent decision-making approach is proposed for navigation strategy selection. • Dynamic characteristics of navigation process (i.e. free navigation, ship following and ship overtaking) are analysed. • Decision-making model is developed from the perception-anticipation-inference-strategy perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transportation of hazardous material (hereinafter referred to as Hazmat) is different from general cargo. If a Hazmat road transportation accident occurs, it will not only cause significant casualties and road network damage but also threaten the safety of the lives and property of the residents near the road. Therefore, a quantitative vulnerability analysis of the Hazmat road transportation network is developed to assess the vulnerability of each link, which can help improve the road transportation risk management level. First, we propose an indicator to measure the relevance between two links based on comprehensive analysis of the road transportation network topology and Hazmat road transportation risk characteristics. Second, we discover that we cannot identify road vulnerability using only topology and risk characteristics alone. Thus, an Impact Strength model is developed to assess Hazmat road transportation vulnerability. This model is based on the classical Gravity model and considers both topology and risk characteristics. Relevant algorithms are proposed accordingly. Third, we use Guangzhou’s Hazmat highway transportation as a case study to verify our Impact Strength model. The related statistics data are collected, and ArcGIS software is employed. By using this model, we can calculate the Impact Strength of each link in the whole transportation network. The empirical results verify that this innovative Impact Strength model can help to identify the links with significant vulnerabilities, which can thus help to reduce road transportation risk in advance and build the road transportation risk early-warning mechanism. This innovative model can also be used to support the relevant decision-making process for further analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundings are frequently occurring accidents that pose a serious risk in inland waterways. This paper proposes a flexible decision-support solution for grounded ships in the Yangtze River. The basis of the proposed method is to develop an influence diagram based on a three-layer decision-making framework, to consider the effectiveness of the intervention measures by adding two nodes and establishing the associated conditional probability tables, and to merge the influence diagram and the intervention measures as a flexible decision-support solution. The merits of the proposed method include the intuitive representation of how the influencing factors affect the alternatives using a graphical structure, the flexibility to implement and to consider the intervention measures for grounded ships, and the ability to deal with uncertainty in both numerical data and qualitative information. The results of the case study showed that it is unanimous with the real situations and the intervention measures should be considered to make effective and accurate decision-making for grounding ships. Consequently, the method presented in this paper provides a practical and flexible decision-support solution for grounded ships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shipowners face the challenge of selecting shipyards to build a new ship, as shipyards are highly similar in terms of capacity and capability but highly heterogeneous with a variety of incentives to shipowners. Building a new ship takes at months and is very expensive, and selecting a prospective shipyard demands the shipowners to have a wealth of experience and knowledge. We develop an improved fuzzy AHP (IFAHP) based game-theoretic model to analyze two competitive shipyards. This model allows us to conduct pairwise comparisons on risks of selecting competitive shipyards. A case study in which two shipyards offering prospective services to the shipowners is conducted with several rounds of expert consultations. This study contributes to the literature by providing both the players and beneficiaries of a game with considerable insights on shipbuilding. We discuss some practical implications for both the shipowners and shipyards. • Marketing strategies are not controlled if they are determined correctly in a real-time competitive environment. • In this study, risk assessment of ship investment based on shipyard strategies is analyzed. • An improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) based game-theoretic model is developed. • A case study that two shipyards offer services to the shipowners is examined. • Numerical results are presented to illustrate the applicability of the approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the world, busy waterways near large ports witness heavy vessel traffic in recent decades. The waterways are characterized by high risk in terms of loss of life, property, and pollution to environment. To facilitate maritime safety management with satisfactory efficiency and efficacy, the authors propose a framework of safety indexes to evaluate the risk level in busy waterways according to the accident severity, fatality rate and special indicators of maritime transportation. The safety indexes consist of Safety Evaluation Index (SEI) and Safety Warning Index (SWI), and are derived from the proposed risk criteria of Chinese vessel traffic. As a case study, data on vessel traffic accidents reported in the Western Shenzhen Port, South China from 1995 to 2015 are analyzed. The actual risk level of this area during the period is calculated under the framework. The implementation of the safety indexes indicate that the risk criteria and safety indexes are practicable and effective for the vessel traffic management. The methodology based on long-term accident data can significantly support the risk analysis in the macroscopic perspective for busy ports and waterways, such that SWI can act as threshold to trigger actions, while SEI can act as an indicator to measure safety status., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This paper investigates determinants of crew and passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Crew and passenger injury equations are estimated for ferry, ocean cruise, and river cruise vessel accidents, utilizing detailed data of individual vessel accidents that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard during the time period 2001-2008. The estimation results provide empirical evidence (for the first time in the literature) that crew injuries are determinants of passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)