Search

Private landowners in the southern Willamette Valley of Oregon, USA were surveyed. The survey queried probabilities of implementing specific fuels reduction projects in extensive areas of specific forest types on their property. The projects were described in relation to the beginning and target forest types, the actions required, costs, and long-term maintenance. Forest types were first rated for scenic beauty and informed levels of wildfire risk reduction, scarce habitat production, and associated property rights risks. Propensities to perform each fuels reduction project were then obtained. These were adversely affected by disbelief in heightened wildfire risks or climate change, higher project costs, feelings of hopeless vulnerability to wildfire, and low aesthetic affections for target forests. Propensities were enhanced by aesthetic affection for target forests, belief in the efficaciousness of fuels reduction, previous experience with wildfire evacuation, and higher incomes. All landowners favored thinning of young conifer forests, but some were averse to thinning of mature conifer forests. Anthropocentric landowners, mainly farmers, foresters, and some small holders, tended to favor conventional thinnings toward commercially valuable conifer forests and avoided long-term habitat maintenance. Nature-centric landowners, mainly some rural residents and wealthy estate owners, leaned more toward long term habitat goals and oak forests.

Urbanization of forested areas increases the surface of wildland–urban interface (WUI), where fire is the primary hazard for humans and ecosystems. We determined the WUI using a novel approach in NW Patagonia, Argentina and evaluated its relationship with the fire ignition points. The WUI expands a greater distance on upslopes, where the rate of fire spread is highest. The WUI reaches the maximum distance under the most hazardous conditions: houses surrounded by fuel with steep slopes towards them. In the Bariloche district in 2021, the WUI included 81% of the houses and occupied 37% (11,006 ha) of the total study area. Between 2015 and 2021, 77% of fire ignitions occurred in the WUI, highlighting the relevance of urban growth planning and the management of fuel load in order to reduce wildfire risk.

The risk of catastrophic wildfire has challenged our societies and impacted various industries, with imminent danger to people's lives, financial burden, and irreparable damages to the environment, among other consequences. While progressive wildfires can impact power system operation and customer reliability and resilience, the relationship between power systems and wildfires is mutual: power systems can also contribute to wildfires. Wildfire risk of power systems is related to, in particular, fault-induced ignition events that can quickly turn into wildfires. While some electric utilities are working on approaches to mitigate such risk, the need for further research, development and demonstration of novel methodologies still exists. This paper identifies, analyzes, and compares the practices that can be further employed by utilities to manage the risk and mitigate the impact of power-system generated wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Massive Geo-tagged social media data provide new opportunities for disaster risk assessment, prevention, and management. This article presents a proof of concept for assessing wildfire risk using Geo-tagged social media data, by taking wildfire risk as a function of wildfire hazard and social–ecological vulnerability. The case study of the United States shows that the regions with the highest wildfire hazard are concentrated in the Western, while the most vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Eastern, the Western Coast, and the Southern parts of the nation. Areas with high wildfire risk are mainly located in the Northwestern and Southeastern United States. It shows that the wildfire risk level has significant linear relationship with population density. Massive and vulnerable population might result in significant increase in wildfire risk perception. We conclude that Geo-tagged social media data have great potential in disaster risk studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk management is a significant part of federal wildland fire management in the USA because policy encourages the use of fire to maintain and restore ecosystems while protecting life and property. In this study, patterns of wildfire risk were explored from operational relative risk assessments (RRA) completed by land managers on 5087 wildfires from 2010 to 2017 in every geographic area of the USA. The RRA is the formal risk assessment used by land managers to develop strategies on emerging wildfires when concerns and issues related to wildfire management are in real-time. Only 38% of these wildfires were rated as high risk and 28% had high ratings for values at risk. Large regional variations were evident, with the West Coast regions selecting high risk and the South-west and Eastern regions selecting low risk. There were finer-scale influences on perceived risk when summarised on a jurisdictional level. Finally, risk summarised by USA agencies showed that the National Park Service and USDA Forest Service selected high risk less frequently compared with other agencies. By illuminating patterns of risk, this research intends to stimulate examination of the social, cultural, and physiographic factors influencing conceptions of risk. Longer duration, federal wildland fires in the USA are commonly represented by low and moderate risk. Regional variations in wildfire risk are evident, with the West Coast using 'high' risk and the South-west and Eastern regions opting for 'low'. Federal agencies also present different risk patterns. Photograph by Dr Russell Parsons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected climate changes will additionally increase the already significant risk of natural hazard-related disasters in Serbia and the west Balkan region as a whole. Serbia is about to introduce the strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, a national decision-support system for implementation of the climate change law and strategy is yet to be developed. This study contributes to the implementation of adaptation policies at subnational levels by development of a decision-support model for local-level management of the climate change adaptation process. The study explores the potential for synergetic application of multicriteria decision making analysis and probabilistic reasoning methods by focusing on Bayesian networks, analytical hierarchy processes, and geographic information systems for selection of priority adaptation measures. The study was based on the formation of causal chains, which enable linking management decisions and socioeconomic or biophysical consequences into articulated sequences of conditional relationships. A model was tested in the forestry sector, and it clearly pointed out development of an early warning system and planning of water intake basins as priority adaptation measures. Since the results are shown as a probability distribution for each alternative solutions, the model can assist decision makers with prompt evaluation of various scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, increasingly severe wildfires have posed a significant threat to the safe and stable operation of transmission lines. Wildfire risk assessment and early warning have become an important research topic in power grid risk assessment. This study proposes a fire prediction model on the basis of the CatBoost algorithm to effectively predict the fire point. Five wildfire risk factors, including vegetation factors, meteorological factors, human factors, terrain factors, and land surface temperature, were combined using the feature selection method on the basis of the gradient boosting decision tree model and principal component analysis to achieve dimensionality reduction of redundant data and create a fire prediction model. The MODIS fire point product is used as the model evaluation data. The verification result uses the AUC value as the evaluation factor. The accuracy of the model is 0.82, and the AUC value is 0.83. The obtained fire point evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual fire points. Results show that this model can effectively predict the risk of wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric grid faults can ignite catastrophic wildfires, particularly in regions with high winds and low humidity. In real-time operations, electric utilities have few options for wildfire risk mitigation, leading to use of disruptive measures such as proactive de-energization of equipment, frequently referred to as public safety power shut-offs. Such power shut-offs have significant impacts on customers, who experience power cuts in an attempt to protect them from fires. This work proposes the optimal power shut-off problem, an optimization model to support short-term operational decision making in the context of extreme wildfire risk. Specifically, the model optimizes grid operations to maximize the amount of power that can be delivered, while proactively minimizing the risk of wildfire ignitions by selectively de-energizing components in the grid. This is the first optimization model to consider how preventive wildfire risk measures impact both wildfire risk and power systems reliability at a short-term, operational time-frame. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated on an augmented version of the RTS-GMLC test case, located in Southern California, and compared against two approaches based on simple risk thresholds. The proposed optimization-based model reduces both wildfire risk and lost load shed relative to the benchmarks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to establish the degree of risk of fires on the territory of the State Forestry Enterprise Botevgrad (TD SFE Botevgrad), as one of the natural and most common disasters in forest ecosystems. Using the approved by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food national "Methodology for determining the risk of forest fires in the country" (Lubenov, 2016), in line with European requirements, it was found that the territory of the farm falls into the category of medium risk of forest fires. In the Forest Management Plan of TD SFE Botevgrad (Agrolesproekt, 2014) the degree of fire risk is defined as low. It is proposed to supplement the methodology with the inclusion of risk calculation of smaller units - forestry section, subdivision and department. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO 2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO 2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires have always been an integral part of the ecology of many terrestrial ecosystems, but their frequency is increasing in many parts of the world. Wildfires were once a natural phenomenon, but after humans learned to control fire, it has been used as a management tool to increase soil fertility, to regenerate natural vegetation for grazing and to control competing vegetation. However, currently uncontrolled wildfires threaten not only natural vegetation, landscape biodiversity, communities and economies, but they also release large amounts of carbon dioxide, thus contributing to global temperature increase. Higher temperatures and drier summers have increased the risk of wildfires in biodiversity rich areas of European Mediterranean countries and have resulted in human casualties. The aim of this article is to investigate whether agroforestry, the practice of integrating woody vegetation and agricultural crops and/or livestock, could be a management tool to reduce wildfires in European Mediterranean countries. Fire events from 2008 to 2017 and data of land cover and land use were spatially correlated. Results indicated that agroforestry areas had fewer wildfire incidents than forests, shrublands or grasslands, providing evidence of the potential of agroforestry to reduce fire risk and protect ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts upon vulnerable areas such as mountain ranges may become greater under a future scenario of adverse climatic conditions. In this sense, the concurrence of long dry spells and extremely hot temperatures can induce environmental risks such as wildfires, crop yield losses or other problems, the consequences of which could be much more serious than if these events were to occur separately in time (e.g. only long dry spells). The present study attempts to address recent and future changes in the following dimensions: duration (D), magnitude (M) and extreme magnitude (EM) of compound dry–hot events in the Pyrenees. The analysis focuses upon changes in the extremely long dry spells and extremely high temperatures that occur within these dry periods in order to estimate whether the internal structure of the compound event underwent a change in the observed period (1981–2015) and whether it will change in the future (2006–2100) under intermediate (RCP4.5, where RCP is representative concentration pathway) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. To this end, we quantified the changes in the temporal trends of such events, as well as changes in the bivariate probability density functions for the main Pyrenean regions. The results showed that to date the risk of the compound event has increased by only one dimension – magnitude (including extreme magnitude) – during the last few decades. In relation to the future, increase in risk was found to be associated with an increase in both the magnitude and the duration (extremely long dry spells) of the compound event throughout the Pyrenees during the spring under RCP8.5 and in the northernmost part of this mountain range during summer under this same scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire use is increasingly recognised as a central component of integrated land management in fire-prone places. Historically, fire use has been commonplace in many places in Ireland, where field burning is an established practice with a long pedigree among upland farmers seeking to improving forage among other benefits. This practice has been subject to controversy as wildfires – a hazard often associated with upland burning practice – continue to gain public attention and concern. This research seeks to understand the practice of field burning from the viewpoint of practitioners themselves through focus groups with upland burners conducted in a variety of locations across Ireland. Discussions focused on the history of field burning, reasons for its use, and how knowledge of the techniques involved in burning has been passed down through generations. The narrative that emerges is that of a critical livelihood-supporting practice steeped in social and ecological value but threatened by stringent regulation and shifting public opinion. We suggest that one way to preserve this practice may be to establish more formal linkages between fire use practitioners and Ireland's fire services, public land managers and regulators to promote appropriate use of traditional fire within modern legal and best practice frameworks. Intergenerational field burning practices in Ireland are increasingly under threat from changing policy and public concerns about wildfire risk. We investigate how burning practices are conducted and how knowledge of this practice is preserved through focus groups with 60 Irish farmers before providing suggestions for future partnerships to overcome current challenges to fire use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A deep-learning-based data-driven approach is developed for human activity affected wildfire risk prediction; • A combination of state-of-the-art deep-learning techniques, including CNN, LSTM, channel-spatial attention, Vision transformer and ANN; • The approach adopts internal structural features of samples for capturing details like mountain trails in hilly terrains. • Our predicted wildfire risk shows significant accuracy enhancement compared to traditional FWI and ConvLSTM predictions. Wildfire risk prediction is a critical component of disaster prevention and mitigation, often closely associated with local human activities in most regions. Recent studies demonstrate that employing joint modeling techniques using diverse datasets alongside Convolutional Neural Networks-Long Short-Term Memory Networks (ConvLSTM) produces favorable predictive results. However, previous research inadequately explored the different impact of factors across different categories and spatial orientations, and neglected the impact of fuels and human activities inside the samples. This study focuses on the six eastern provinces of China, utilizing a multi-source dataset comprising satellite-monitored wildfire products from 2012 to 2022, along with various factors indicating terrestrial and human activities, simulated meteorological elements and high-resolution vegetation imagery. By introducing channel and spatial attention mechanisms and visual transformer mode, this research optimizes the ConvLSTM wildfire prediction model. Results indicate a noteworthy enhancement, elevating accuracy, Kappa coefficient, and AUC of ROC curves from 91.15%, 80.87%, and 97.01% to 92.79%, 84.48%, and 97.90%, respectively. Consequently, it reinforces the accuracy by increase of the structural features within samples and quantifying the differences in the importance of different factors, which is also validated by prediction application of the samples in the entire year of 2023. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the current model is still highly dependent on the meteorological factors. Notably, the impact of structural features significantly surpasses the influence of terrain and terrestrial ecology elements, which should be considered in further models. Thus, this study has developed a methodology integrating multiple attention mechanisms and sample structural features, which could furnish high-precision daily kilometer-level wildfire risk prediction products. This method could improve the efficiency of prevention and control by improving the accuracy and narrowing the high-risk areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A multidisciplinary wildfire risk assessment enhances standard approaches. • Fire hazard simulation and ecosystem services participatory mapping are combined. • Accounting for cultural ecosystem services refines wildfire mitigation strategies. The impact of natural disturbances such as wildfires on ecosystem services and local communities is significant. Conventional assessments of wildfire risks often overlook the potential loss of ecosystem services, particularly cultural ones (CES). This study presents a methodology for integrating CES into wildfire risk assessment, combining expert CES participatory mapping with standard procedures based on fire hazard and vulnerability modelling. We tested the methodology in a European Alpine landscape of 143 km2 involving 8 municipalities and 30 local stakeholders. Integrating CES hotspots changed the risk classification by at least two classes for 52 of the 358 valley subwatersheds and made the distribution of high and very high-risk areas more scattered. This study demonstrates that including CES in wildfire risk assessment and prevention schemes through a participatory process can encourage stakeholder engagement and provide additional information on the indirect benefits of the ecosystem. We conclude that the application of this methodology to other contexts would strongly benefit local wildfire risk management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a crucial factor in increasing wildfire risks, where warmer and drier conditions, increased drought periods and increased lightning strikes have made many areas more susceptible to burning. This special issue focuses on Wildfire and Hydrological Processes, exploring how wildfire has impacted watersheds and water resources. The manuscripts in this collection underscore how wildfire can change the nature of vegetation, characteristics of soils, hydrological flow paths, and residence times of water in the critical zone, and provide new insights toward predictability of wildfire impacts on watersheds. The studies reveal that wildfire can affect water quantity and quality over varying timescales, from during the active burning to years and decades afterward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pinus halepensis forests, as Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are subject to high levels of wildfire risk in times of drought, with meteorological conditions of water stress and very high temperatures, mainly in summer. Considering the difficulty of knowing the phenological state of this species, the objective of this research was to evaluate the possibility of implementing the electrical responses (voltage and short-circuit current) as a variable in fire risk management models, compared to live fuel moisture. On the one hand, the obtained results demonstrate non-significant differences between the moisture content of the different fractions of the living branches (base and half of the branch and live fuel), even in times of drought with hydric stress and very high temperatures. Live fuel moisture of Pinus halepensis does not show significant seasonal variations under the influence of extreme fire risk factors. For this reason, it should be complemented with other variables for fire risk management models. On the other hand, the differences registered in the electrical signal show oscillations with significant variations, which are strongly correlated with the periods of extremely favourable meteorological conditions for wildfires. So, the voltages measured show ranges that correspond with great accuracy to the FWI. Voltage variation is dependent on the hydraulic dynamic plant behaviour and a result of the physiological response of pine trees to abiotic stress of drought. It is an easy-to-measure electrical parameter as well as a very reliable indicator with a high correlation with wildfire risk. Thus, electrical responses could add more knowledge about the phenological state of the trees in dependence on stress climatic conditions, allowing integration of these variables in the preventive wildfire modelling and management.

This paper presents the results of a survey that was undertaken to examine homeowners’ FireSmart mitigation practices and investigate existing incentives and barriers to uptake of FireSmart Canada’s recommended wildfire mitigation activities in the Urban Service Area of Fort McMurray Alberta. Single-family residential property owners, the large majority of whom were affected by the Horse River wildfire, were invited to participate in an online survey. A total of 496 surveys were completed, with a response rate of 38%. We found that most of the participants generally perceive a low to moderate wildfire risk to their properties: they felt there was a low chance of a catastrophic fire happening soon and/or ‘enough’ had already been done to reduce the immediate risk. Although about half of the participants searched for information about FireSmart, having information or knowledge of FireSmart did not translate into substantial adoption of recommended mitigation actions. Survey participants generally preferred and implemented more of the low-cost, low effort mitigation measures such as cutting grasses and cleaning debris, likely for reasons other than wildfire risk reduction. With regard to structural measures, we found asphalt shingles and vinyl siding were present on the majority of homes; although this was not a choice but was provided by the builder or on the home when it was purchased. Very few respondents were willing to replace their siding or roof––the cost was the single biggest factor. In addition, we identified several other factors as negatively influencing homeowners’ mitigation actions, including the tendency to shift responsibility to the municipal government and social pressure such as neighbors not being as proactive in completing FireSmart mitigation measures. Recommendations that may help promote positive wildfire mitigation behaviors are discussed.

The paper presents results of a risk analysis of forest fires at county level, based on published statistical data of period 1976-2000 (”Health condition of the forests în Romania”) and different methodologies to assess the fire risk of forest stands using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and a methodology integrating GIS techniques. The global fire risk model, based on the cumulated ranks on the analyzed period, indicated a very higher risk for forests in the south-west and south-east of Romania (the counties Caraș Severin, Gorj, and Tulcea, Constanța respectively), while other eight counties were included in the higher fire risk category. Among the models of fire occurrence based on SPI, the higher variance was explained by the cumulated value of SPI in winter, spring and summer (44%). The method based on ranking scores considered six main factors contributing to the occurrence of forest fires - vegetation type, distance to forest edge/roads, maximum temperature, maximum moisture, historical occurrence of forest fire, based on which is provided a 5 - class risk system. This method is extended further by using GIS tools, which could provide mapped information on the forest fire risk.

Wildfire risk is latent in Chilean metropolitan areas characterized by the strong presence of Wildland-Urban Interfaces (WUI). The Metropolitan Area of Concepción (CMA) constitutes one of the most representative samples of that dynamic. The wildfire risk in the CMA was addressed by establishing a model of 5 categories (Near Zero, Low, Medium, High, and Very High) that represent discernible thresholds in fire occurrence, using geospatial data and satellite images describing anthropic - biophysical factors that trigger fires. Those were used to deliver a model of fire hazard using machine learning algorithms, including Principal Component Analysis and Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps in two experimental scenarios: only native forest and only forestry plantation. The model was validated using fire spots obtained from the forestry government organization. The results indicated that 12.3 % of the CMA's surface area has a high and very high risk of a forest fire, 29.4 % has a medium risk, and 58.3 % has a low and very low risk. Lastly, the observed main drivers that have deepened this risk were discussed: first, the evident proximity between the increasing urban areas with exotic forestry plantations, and second, climate change that threatens to trigger more severe and large wildfires because of human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water‐related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation ("200 mm day −1 in several location") that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post‐fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long‐term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio‐economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all‐around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire‐watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post‐fire hydrology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire disasters on overhead transmission lines seriously threaten the safe and stable operation of large power grids and the normal use of electricity. After a wildfire occurs near a transmission line, it is often inefficient to take measures afterward. In order to guide the early warning of wildfire disasters on overhead transmission lines and strengthen the active prevention of them, this paper proposes a method for calculating the occurrence risk of overhead transmission line wildfires that considers the hazards of vegetation burning. Compared with conventional methods, the considerations are more comprehensive. A calculation method for wildfire trip risk coefficient based on tripping probability and transmission load that does not need to calculate the wildfire spread process is proposed, and the calculation is simpler. For the first time, a comprehensive calculation method for the whole-process tripping risk of overhead transmission lines caused by wildfires combined with the wildfire occurrence risk and the trip risk coefficient is proposed, compared with methods that calculated only the risk level of wildfires and ones that calculated only the tripping probability, comprehensively analyzing the entire process from the potential factors of wildfires to the danger of tripping, which is more scientific. Application cases showed that this method accurately reflected the risk of wildfire trips on overhead transmission lines, thereby guiding the optimization of the wildfire prevention resource deployment in advance and improving wildfire prevention in power grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 1960s the US National Park Service developed a policy designed to restore the natural ecological role of wildland fire. The policy was driven by growing understanding of ecosystem management benefits, as reflected in the 1963 Leopold Report on wildlife management in national parks. The new policy was designed to reverse decades of aggressive wildfire suppression that had caused disruptions in habitats and vegetative communities, and unnaturally high wildland fuel accumulation. More than 50 years later, the policy has largely failed to achieve its goals. This failure is due not just to climate change and the rise of new fire regimes dominated by mega-fires. It also was due to a lack of clear and unified organizational commitment by many parks, along with continued administrative comfort with fire suppression-oriented thinking, particularly during the window of opportunity between 1970 and 2000. During this time program emphasis shifted from ecosystem restoration to hazard fuels reduction, and program direction from Natural Resources staff to Emergency Services personnel. Efforts to establish a balance between emergency response thinking and resource management thinking largely failed due to institutional barriers and funding/staffing decisions driven by the threat of large wildfires. Park managers became wary of natural fire regime restoration efforts after the 1988 Yellowstone fires and the 2000 Cerro Grande Fire. This accelerated the demise of the Leopold Report vision of restoring and maintaining the ecological role of natural fire. In its place, wildfire suppression philosophy again became predominant, as reflected in the National Fire Plan with its focus away from ecological fire use and toward hazard fuel reduction in support of protecting the wildland urban interface. Restoring the Leopold Report vision requires an interdivisional commitment by Park emergency response and resources management organizations, guided by leadership at all organizational levels. It now may be timely to establish an NPS advisory board on wildland fire management similar to the one that produced the Leopold Report. This Board should review wildland fire policy implementation over the past 58 years, determine whether the ecosystem restoration paradigm is still valid, and if so, then the types of leadership and organizational changes required to achieve it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catastrophic wildfires, sometimes called "megafires," are more and more common in the western United States. California in particular is increasingly thought of as having a year-round (24/7/365) fire season. These megafires ignore boundaries, require prolonged and expensive interagency responses, and harm natural and cultural resources. Many agencies have developed programs designed to reduce wildfire risk, such as through the use of mechanical thinning or prescribed fire. However, these programs often are treating far fewer acres than called for in planning documents. Experienced fire scientists and managers believe it is time to reassess fire and fuels management programs. Working with a number of partners, the George Wright Society organized a workshop in February 2021 to address these issues, titled "Fire Management 24/7/365: A Workshop on the Mitigation of Wildfire Risk in Mixed Conifer Forests of California." This paper reports on the workshop and plans for future collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several very large high‐impact fires burned nearly 4,000 km2 of mesic forests in western Oregon during September 7–9, 2020. While infrequent, very large high‐severity fires have occurred historically in western Oregon, the extreme nature of this event warrants analyses of climate and meteorological drivers. A strong blocking pattern led to an intrusion of dry air and strong downslope east winds in the Oregon Cascades following a warm‐dry 60‐day period that promoted widespread fuel flammability. Viewed independently, both the downslope east winds and fuel dryness were extreme, but not unprecedented. However, the concurrence of these drivers resulted in compound extremes and impacts unmatched in the observational record. We additionally find that most large wildfires in western Oregon since 1900 have similarly coincided with warm‐dry summers during at least moderate east wind events. These results reinforce the importance of incorporating a multivariate lens for compound extremes in assessing wildfire hazard risk. Plain Language Summary: Several very large fires in western Oregon spread rapidly during an unusually strong offshore wind event that commenced on Labor Day in 2020. The Labor Day fires burned more area of the Oregon Cascades than had burned in the previous 36 years combined and very likely exceeded the area burned in any single year for at least the past 120 years. The fires damaged over 4,000 structures, led to several fatalities, placed over 10% of the state's residents under some level of evacuation advisory, and contributed to the hazardous air quality across the Northwestern United States. A compound set of weather‐related factors leading up to and during the fires facilitated these extreme fires. Unusually warm conditions with limited precipitation in the 60‐days leading up to the fires allowed for fuels to become particularly dry and combustible by early September. Downslope offshore winds materialized during September 7–9, 2020 across the Oregon Cascades bringing exceptionally strong winds and dry air that drove rapid rates of fire spread. While neither of these individual factors was unprecedented, the concurrence of these drivers created conditions unmatched in the observational record. Key Points: Approximately 11% of the Oregon Cascades burned during September 7–9, 2020 coincident with strong offshore downslope windsUnprecedented compound extremes involving fuel aridity and fire meteorology facilitated the extent and spread of firesVery large fires in western Oregon since 1900 have generally occurred during east wind events at the end of anomalously warm‐dry summers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The survival of humanity is dependent on the survival of forests and the ecosystems they support, yet annually wildfires destroy millions of hectares of global forestry. Wildfires take place under specific conditions and in certain regions, which can be studied through appropriate techniques. A variety of statistical modeling methods have been assessed by researchers; however, ensemble modeling of wildfire susceptibility has not been undertaken. We hypothesize that ensemble modeling of wildfire susceptibility is better than a single modeling technique. This study models the occurrence of wildfire in the Brisbane Catchment of Australia, which is an annual event, using the index of entropy (IoE), evidential belief function (EBF), and logistic regression (LR) ensemble techniques. As a secondary goal of this research, the spatial distribution of the wildfire risk from different aspects such as urbanization and ecosystem was evaluated. The highest accuracy (88.51%) was achieved using the ensemble EBF and LR model. The outcomes of this study may be helpful to particular groups such as planners to avoid susceptible and risky regions in their planning; model builders to replace the traditional individual methods with ensemble algorithms; and geospatial users to enhance their knowledge of geographic information system (GIS) applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prescribed burning is used for reducing future wildfire risk; however, it creates smoke, which can affect human health. Using newly available high‐frequency daily data (2015–2017) on PM2.5 specifically attributed to smoke from prescribed burns in Georgia, USA, this analysis investigates infant health externalities connected to these burns. Cumulatively, over an average pregnancy, smoke from prescribed burns is associated with a 1.02 percentage point increase in instances of low birth weight and prematurity, each. For every $1 spent on prescribed burning, $0.43–$2.46 in state‐wide low birth weight and prematurity hospitalization costs are created. Various robustness and specification checks are performed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires constitute a serious threat for both the environment and human well-being. The US fire policy aims to tackle this problem, devoting a sizeable amount of resources and resorting extensively to fire suppression strategies. The theoretical literature has established a link between climate conditions and wildfire incidence. Using state-level data from 2002 to 2013 for the USA, this work proposes a wildfire incidence indicator and runs a generalized spatial ordered probit model in order to test the findings of the previous literature empirically. Moreover, this article investigates the extent of spatial spillovers in the climatic covariates. The results highlight a significant impact of precipitation and temperature on fire incidence and provide some evidence of the role of spatial spillovers. In particular, transitions from lower to higher wildfire incidence levels are significantly encouraged by increases in local temperature and significantly discouraged by increases in both local precipitation and lagged precipitation. The present analysis complements the recent literature, confirming the previous findings with a solid empirical investigation and offering a policy-oriented picture of wildfire risks all over the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private landowners are important actors in landscape-level wildfire risk management. Accordingly, wildfire programs and policy encourage wildland–urban interface homeowners to engage with local organizations to properly mitigate wildfire risk on their parcels. We investigate whether parcel-level wildfire risk assessment data, commonly used to inform community-level planning and resource allocation, can be used to "nudge" homeowners to engage further with a regional wildfire organization. We sent 4564 households in western Colorado a letter that included varying combinations of risk information about their community, their parcels, and their neighbors' parcels, and we measured follow-up visits to a personalized "Web site". We find that the effect of providing parcel-specific information depends on baseline conditions: Informing homeowners about their property's wildfire risk increases information-seeking among homeowners of the highest-risk parcels by about 5 percentage points and reduces information-seeking among homeowners of lower-risk parcels by about 6 percentage points. Parcel-specific information also increases the overall response in the lowest risk communities by more than 10 percentage points. Further, we find evidence of a 6-percentage point increase in response rate associated with receiving a social comparison treatment that signals neighboring properties as being either low or moderate risk on average. These results, especially considered against the 13 percent overall average response rate, offer causal evidence that providing parcel-specific wildfire risk information can influence behavior. As such, we demonstrate the effectiveness of simple outreach in engaging wildland–urban interface homeowners with wildfire risk professionals in ways that leverage existing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

California has experienced increasingly severe autumn wildfires over the past several decades, which have exacted a rising human and environmental toll. Recent fire and climate science research has demonstrated a clear link between worsening California wildfires and climate change, mainly though the vegetation‐drying effect of rising temperatures and shifting precipitation seasonality. New work by Luković et al. (2021) explores observed changes in California's autumn precipitation in greater detail, finding that the rainy season has indeed become progressively delayed and that the "sharpness" of California precipitation seasonality has increased. These precipitation shifts have important implications for the region's ecology and wildfire risk, as they increase the degree of temporal overlap between extremely dry vegetation conditions and fire‐promoting downslope winds in late autumn. Both of these observed shifts are consistent with climate model projections for the region's future, suggesting that recent trends may offer an early preview of larger changes to come. Key Points: California autumn precipitation of outsized importance from ecological and wildfire risk perspectivesAn observed decrease in autumn precipitation and delay in rainy season onset have contributed to an increase in peak seasonal wildfire riskSharpening precipitation seasonality reported by Luković et al. (2021) is consistent with climate model projections in a warming climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the frequency, intensity, and severity of wildfires have been on the rise due to various environmental factors. Several studies show that the strategic application of fuel treatments is effective at altering fire behavior and its spread patterns. Effective planning for mitigating future expected losses under wildfire risk is a complex challenge that requires the integration of fire spread, simulation, and optimization models as well as the inclusion of multiple objectives into a unified framework. Previous works simplify the analysis by valuing the landscape regions using a unique objective (e.g., minimize the average expected area burned) or a predefined objective function. However, such an assumption is a simplification of the real system as multiple parts of the landscape have different values based on factors such as the presence of human settlements and infrastructure, availability of environmental services, and forest health. In this work, we expand these previous attempts by providing an integrated framework to naturally include and weight multiple objectives into the optimization model and analyze the trade-off between present objectives and future protection against wildfire risk. We study three key regions based on their recent fire history, landscape diversity, and demographic variety to quantify the impact of multiple objectives in landscape management. We obtain treatment plans using various combinations of these layers reflecting how different priorities of the decision-makers could affect treatment policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant amount of research has examined what motivates people living in fire-prone areas to mitigate their wildfire risk (i.e. engage in activities that reduce vulnerability and the effects of a wildfire on an individual's property). However, drawing overarching conclusions from this research is difficult because of the myriad of ways researchers have measured and analysed wildfire risk mitigation. Although recommendations exist for measuring risk-mitigation activities, no research to date has based these recommendations on an examination of how different operationalisations influence subsequent interpretations of homeowner preparedness. We addressed this gap by examining how the effects of demographics and contextual factors on preparedness differ across different ways of counting the amount of vegetation management completed. We also examined how different statistical approaches influence the results. We found that measuring vegetation management as the sum of activities completed is problematic and can obfuscate important relationships. For example, age is positively related to the proportion of applicable activities completed, but not the total number. We recommend assessing which items are applicable to respondents and constructing proportional measures rather than sums. We also recommend that, given the need for maintenance of vegetation, researchers use non-binary measures that allow respondents to indicate how much work they have undertaken towards each activity. Common measures of wildfire risk mitigation as the sum of activities 'completed' are problematic. Measuring mitigation as the proportion of relevant activities completed and allowing respondents to indicate the amount of work they have undertaken reveals more nuanced relationships between demographics and mitigation than the sum of activities completed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire is a complex problem because of the diverse mix of actors and landowners involved, uncertainty about outcomes and future conditions, and unavoidable trade-offs that require ongoing negotiation. In this perspective, we argue that addressing the complex challenge of wildfire requires governance approaches designed to fit the nature of the wildfire problem. For instance, while wildfire is often described as a cross-boundary problem, understanding wildfire risk as transboundary highlights important political and institutional challenges that complicate collaboration across jurisdictions and shared stewardship. Transboundary risk requires collaborative governance that attends to the distribution of power, authority, and capacity across the range of actors relevant to particular fire-prone landscapes. Wildfire is also changing in unprecedented ways and multiple, interacting uncertainties make predicting future wildfires difficult. Anticipatory governance can build our capacity to integrate uncertainty into wildfire decision-making and manage risk in proactive ways. Finally, competing interests and values mean that trade-offs are inherent to the wildfire problem. Risk governance links science and society through deliberative, participatory processes that explicitly navigate tradeoffs and build legitimacy for actions to address wildfire risk. Governance approaches that better target the nature of the wildfire problem will improve our ability to coexist with fire today and in the future.

Attribution studies have identified a robust anthropogenic fingerprint in increased 21st century wildfire risk. However, the risks associated with individual aspects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change remain unknown. Here, we use new climate model large ensembles isolating these influences to show that GHG-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions have been balanced by aerosol-driven cooling throughout the 20th century. This compensation is projected to disappear due to future reductions in aerosol emissions, causing unprecedented increases in extreme fire weather risk in the 21st century as GHGs continue to rise. Changes to temperature and relative humidity drive the largest shifts in extreme fire weather conditions; this is particularly apparent over the Amazon, where GHGs cause a seven-fold increase by 2080. Our results allow increased understanding of the interacting roles of anthropogenic stressors in altering the regional expression of future wildfire risk. Human emissions are thought to have caused an increase in wildfire risk, but how different emission sources contribute is less well known. Here, the authors show that the increase due to greenhouse gas emissions was balanced by aerosol-driven cooling, an effect that is projected to disappear during the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Fuel reduction treatments are broadly implemented to reduce the risk of extreme wildfire, but research on the long‐term effectiveness and impacts of these treatments is lacking. In this study, we examined short‐ and long‐term (two and 15 years) changes in fuels and understorey vegetation after treatment in chaparral and oak‐dominated stands. Location: Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, California, USA. Methods: Treatments, including hand thinning, mastication only, burn only, and mastication + burning, were applied randomly to one or two units within each of 10 blocks across two vegetation types (chaparral and oak‐dominated). Vegetation data were initially measured two years after treatment and remeasured 15 years later with additional sampling of dead surface fuels and shrubs. Fuel and vegetation data were analyzed to examine the effect of treatment, time, and vegetation type. Results: In chaparral stands, shrub height and cover in the hand‐thinning, mastication, and mastication + burning treatments were still lower than in the control after 15 years. However, only the hand‐thinning treatment reduced fine woody fuels. Hand thinning and mastication + burning increased native species richness after two years, but this was also associated with an increase in exotic species richness and cover that persisted after 15 years. In oak‐dominated stands, treatments had varied and relatively fewer changes to fuels and vegetation. Shrub height was reduced in both the hand‐thinning and Burn‐only treatments, but only mastication reduced shrub cover. Species richness and vegetative cover were largely unaffected by treatment in oak‐dominated stands, except for lower native plant cover in mastication and mastication + burning treatments. Conclusion: Treatments varied in their level of effectiveness and most involved trade‐offs between their impacts on fuels and vegetation responses that differed by vegetation type and time. Our findings provide insights for managers interested in balancing these trade‐offs when making fuel treatment decisions and emphasize the importance of examining longer‐term effectiveness of fuels treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National and regional preparedness level (PL) designations support decisions about wildfire risk management. Such decisions occur across the fire season and influence pre-positioning of resources in areas of greatest fire potential, recall of personnel from off-duty status, requests for back-up resources from other areas, responses to requests to share resources with other regions during fire events, and decisions about fuel treatment and risk reduction, such as prescribed burning. In this paper, we assess the association between PLs assigned at national and regional (Northwest) scales and a set of predictors including meteorological and climate variables, wildfire activity and the mobilisation and allocation levels of fire suppression resources. To better understand the implicit weighting applied to these factors in setting PLs, we discern the qualitative and quantitative factors associated with PL designations by statistical analysis of the historical record of PLs across a range of conditions. Our analysis constitutes an important step towards efforts to forecast PLs and to support the future projection and anticipation of firefighting resource demand, thereby aiding wildfire risk management, planning and preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between local elections and wildfire. Using data of wildfires in Greek municipalities between 2000 and 2010, I estimate models comparing wildfire outcomes in local election years against nonelection years. I find that wildfire occurrence and burned area are systematically lower in the years around local elections. In municipalities where incumbents run for re-election, the decrease in wildfire occurrence is smaller in the years leading to elections, and larger in the years following local elections. There is some limited evidence that the likelihood of reelection influences wildfire outcomes around the time of local elections. The results suggest a relationship can exist between politics at the local level, wildfire occurrence and burned area. As political and economic considerations can be important in driving wildfire outcomes, assessing wildfire risk cannot take place separately from the prevailing political, economic and institutional environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]