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Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 13 (2001): 1, 105-115 A central claim of sustainable development is the far-reaching use of renewable forms of energy. This article focuses on the fact that solar water heaters are much more popular in Austria than in most other European countries. The enormous success of solar heaters in the 1990s is explained by two speci!c social phenomena that only can be observed in Austria: !rst, by a self-construction movement, consisting of single do-it-yourself groups started in the early 1980s that has spread throughout Austria. A major aspect of this movement was a comprehensive diUusion strategy that made it easy for nearly everyone to get a solar water system. Second, an atypical group of adopters were responsible for the unexpected dissemination success. Most of these early adopters were households in rural regions, interested in solar heaters due to a feature that already played a central role in the very beginning of this technology—more personal comfort. The close connection between the self-construction movement and early users enabled ongoing technical improvements of the system, which were adopted by commercial producers and installation companies.

Mobile devices may be a powerful tool to help in case of emergency, not only for the person or people in danger but also for those ones giving assistance to them, professionally or not. In order to determine how mobile applications are currently being used in this area and the possibilities for innovation, this paper gathers the result of a review of about more than 250 applications commercially available. These applications have been featured to analyze their value proposition (e.g. main service goal, target user or pricing approach) and their operational features, with respect to their level of context-awareness and the discovery and notification of emergencies. Additionally, the paper proposes the functional design of a mobile application for Citizen Emergency Management, which takes advantage of the gap of the available offer.

The purpose of this study is to determine the scale, technical and overall efficiency of the banking system of Ukraine using the DEA method in dynamics in the post-crisis period. The DEA method belongs to the group of non-parametric methods based on front’s technology analysis and allows considering the totality of impacts both the input parameters (resources) and output (products / services). The structure of banks included 24 banks of Ukraine with total assets amounted to 806.7 billion UAH (72 % of banking system assets). Banks were classified into state-owned banks and banks in which the state has a controlling interest, banks with domestic capital, banks with Russian capital and banks with foreign capital (excluding Russia). Empirical data analysis demonstrated that over the period of analysis the effectiveness of large-scale banks increased, while pure technical remained at a moderate level. Most of the banks included in the sample operate with average effective or ineffective.

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes – and grand challenges in particular –, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so-called grand challenges., JRC.J.2-Knowledge for Growth

The paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable a business to develop a capacity to anticipate and address change within the networks in which it is embedded, using FTA thinking to shape a business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable firms to become a participant who helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships. The objective is to help organisations to create a tailored, as well as a common strategy in its network of relationships, with support of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, achieving influence among its partners to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development, in order to reach the desired common vision of sustainability., JRC.J.2-Knowledge for Growth

This article reviews the security technology and implementation strategies of IOT from perception layer, network layer and application layer, and solve information security problems of IOT with spread and exploitation process from the technical level, basing on introducing the basic concept, architecture and safety situation.

The notion of technological limits and the concept of product system hierarchy are established in the fields of technology analysis and systems engineering, respectively. In this article an attempt is made to integrate these concepts. A trend toward the increased importance of quasitechnological limits relative to technological limits is described. A further trend toward the increased importance of limits on higher levels in the system hierarchy is also described, and the relationship between these two trends is explored. This leads to a hypothesis about the future role of technology in society. The possibility of integrating some of the frameworks of technology analysis is discussed. The need for technological forecasting on all levels of the system hierarchy is motivated.

Synthetic diamond technology appears to have the capability of significantly changing the future technological landscape. Accordingly, The Institute for the Management of Technology regards it as a ‘marker’ technology. This paper suggests that there is a need to review expectations concerning synthetic diamond developments. Technology analysis is used as a method to understand and communicate the expectations. The history trends and applications are presented. Two challenges are revealed: First, High Pressure and High Temperature is being challenged by Chemical Vapour Deposition as the dominant manufacturing technology, suggesting that the latter should be monitored for breakthroughs. Second, the distinction between synthetic and natural gems is becoming harder to determine. This threat to the gem industry, in combination with the expanding industrial use, suggests that efforts should be pursued to establish the uniqueness of natural gems and to prevent the name ‘diamond’ from being ubiquitously used.

This paper examines the validity of the strategic implications draun from the typology of generic strategies presented by Michael Porter. It is argued that the existence of technologies which simultaneously drive cost and performance make it possible to combine cost leadership and difflerentiation strategies, and yet be extremely competitive. The mobile telephone industry provides us with an illustrative empirical example. In this case, rather than a ‘stuck in the middle’ strategy, we found a ‘luck in the middle’ strategy.

Remote sensing (RS) image classification is an important content of RS research area. How to solve the classification of the multi-category image, avoid the existence of “same objects with different spectrums” and “different spectrums with same objects” phenomemon, and achieve certain accuracy requirement is a key question in RS application research, which has the very important practical significance especially in the military uffairs scout, geological survey and civil fields. By using the LANDSAT-7 ETM + RS image with the support of the project which investigated geology and mineral resources in the around 1:50 thousand regional Sepikou, Mulei County of Xinjiang in 2008, the improved BP neural network model is designed in this paper by the adaptive learning rate and the additional momentum, and compared with the traditional classification methods. Through the precision analysis by the error matrix, the result shows that the total classification accuracy which uses improved BP NN classification of RS image is 89.8%, and the classification accuracy of RS image is improved obviously, and is a kind of effective classification method.

Background The Eucalyptus wood is one of the most important raw materials for pulp and paper industry. Brazil is currently the first producer of short-fiber pulp and sixth in total production of cellulose. To maintain the industrial competitiveness, investment in genomic research started in 2002 with the GENOLYPTUS project (Brazilian Network of Eucalyptus Genome Research). Recently, a new transcriptome library was generated using Next Generation RNA Sequencing by Illumina’s sequencing by synthesis technology. Different species of Eucalyptus are recognized for their superior characteristics in terms of growth, wood quality and resistance to different types of stress (1). Such features are probably driven by the coordinated expression of numerous genes involved in processes of structural and regulatory genes in xylogenesis. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to identify genes and key metabolic compounds directly involved in wood quality, as well as transcription factors involved. An extensive data mining in the RNAseq database was conducted to identify sequences over expressed in xylem and those that were differentially expressed between species.

In order to make research and development more efficient as well as lower cost, we have successfully proposed a systematic design process for designers. By the theory of inventive problem-solving and systematic controlling variables method controlling different variables are divided into three stages: primary innovation, secondary innovation, and tertiary innovation, consequently. Besides, based on technology analysis, we also have optimized the design in each stage. To illustrate the systematic process, there is a case study that a novel multi-functional optical film designed by the systematic process could improve the existing patent of a backlight module.

National attention has focused on the critical problem of detecting and avoiding windshear since the crash on 2 Aug. 1985 of a Lockheed L-1011 at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. As part of the NASA/FAA National Integrated Windshear Program, we have defined a measurable windshear hazard index that can be remotely sensed from an aircraft, to give the pilot information about the wind conditions he will experience at some later time if he continues along the present flight path. A technology analysis and end-to-end performance simulation measuring signal-to-noise ratios and resulting wind velocity errors for competing coherent laser radar (lidar) systems have been carried out. The results show that a Ho:YAG lidar at a wavelength of 2.1 microm and a CO(2) lidar at 10.6 microm can give the pilot information about the line-of-sight component of a windshear threat from his present position to a region extending 2-4 km in front of the aircraft. This constitutes a warning time of 20-40 s, even in conditions of moderately heavy precipitation. Using these results, a Coherent Lidar Airborne Shear Sensor (CLASS) that uses a Q-switched CO(2) laser at 10.6 microm is being designed and developed for flight evaluation in the fall of 1991.

Over the last 10 years, Ni-Cd (Nickel-Cadmium) batteries were installed and operated in remote terminals as standby energy storage in various telecom applications. The uncontrolled environment, of the outside plant (OSP) cabinet, challenges battery performance, battery life and battery safety.

John von Neumann and the Origins of Modern Computing W. Aspray London and Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 1990 337, pp., $35 (US). Science, Technology and Socxety: new directions A. J. Webster London und Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1991, 181 pp.,£35 hbk and £9.99 pbk.

(1992). Three misconceptions about innovation. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management: Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 77-82.

Raiškiųjų interneto programų technologijos įgyja vis didesnę reikšmę interneto ir verslo sistemų kūrime. Jos leidžia sukurti sklandžią vartotojo sąsają, kuri išnaudoja naujas grafikos, skaičiavimų bei komunikacijos galimybes. Technologija yra aktyviai vystoma ir gauna vis daugiau dėmesio iš programinės įrangos kūrėjų. Šiame darbe pristatomos raiškiųjų interneto programų technologijos ir jų panaudojimas. Pristatomi nauji duomenų, verslo ir vaizdavimo logikos modeliavimo būdai. Aprašomos šių technologijų charakteristikos. Raiškiųjų interneto programų savybės palyginamos su darbastalio ir tradicinėmis interneto programų savybėmis. Sukurta pavyzdinė interaktyvi paskirstyta sistema ir parodomi galimi technologijos pritaikymo ir problemų sprendimo būdai. Galiausiai atliekami našumo ir apkrovimo testai, kurie parodo šių technologijų pritaikymo tikslingumą., Internet technologies are being developed ever faster, and new ways for representing information are emerging. One such technology is Rich Internet Applications (RIA). This technology allows better and more responsive UI‘s, overwhelming graphic support, new computational, communication and interoperability capabilities. This technology is getting more and more support from key technology developers. In this work you will be presented with RIA technologies and their usage. New ways for working with data, business and presentation layers will be presented. RIA technology characteristics will be thoroughly analyzed and compared with desktop and traditional web applications. An example interactive distributed system will be presented to show possible technology choices and solutions. Finally performance and stress tests will be conducted to show RIA technology feasibility.

Even experts cannot be fully aware of all the promising developments in broad and complex fields of technology, such as renewable energy. Fortunately, there exist many diverse sources of information that report new technological developments, such as journal publications, news stories, and blogs. However, the volume of data contained in these sources is enormous; it would be difficult for a human to read and digest all of this information - especially in a timely manner. This paper describes a novel application of technology mining techniques to these diverse information sources to study, visualize, and identify the evolution of promising new technologies - a challenge we call 'early growth technology analysis.' For the work reported herein, we use as inputs information about millions of published documents contained in sources such as SCIRCUS, Inspec, and Compendex. We accomplish this analysis through the use of bibliometric analysis, consisting of three key steps: 1. Extract related keywords (from keywords in articles) 2. Determine the annual occurrence frequencies of these keywords 3. Identify those exhibiting rapid growth, particularly if starting from a low base. To provide a focus for the experiments and subsequent discussions, a pilot study was conducted in the area of 'renewable energy,' though the techniques and methods developed are neutral to the domain of study. Preliminary results and conclusions from the case study are presented and are discussed in the context of the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

The main advantage of video lectures is being able to break spatial and temporal constrains when disseminating information. We briefly present the system used for recording and diffusing video lectures over the Internet. The process of recording and diffusing video lectures may be divided into 5 main steps: prepare, record, edit, produce, and share. Video for the educational purposes creates new technical boundaries. Thus, boundaries can be surmounted or diminished by considerate technology analysis and design.

The paper introduces the characteristics and the main applications of sub-millimetre wave. The technology development status of SMMW in home and abroad are also introduced. The characteristics of sub-millimetre wave seeker and the problems which are needed to be solved are specified. Both key technology and investigative difficulties of sub- millimetre wave seeker are analyzed. The influence of target movement towards SMMW chirp is analyzed. The analysis result proves that velocity compensation must be carried out before signal processing of SMMW-chirp is implemented. (4 pages)

Technology analysis is a new technomanagerial discipline that provides common frameworks for analysing individual technologies and their relationships to each other. It is used here to probe the development of a particular technology, namely that of permanent magnets. The paper traces the development of permanent magnets over the past decade and explores possible future improvements in performance parameters. The strength of magnets (i.e. energy product as expressed in kilo Joules per cubic metre) has increased from approximately 40 in the 1930s to approximately 400 at present. Future developments will be constrained by a barrier which seems to exist at approximately 525 kilo Joules per cubic metre. However this is viewed as a barrier that can be transcended and not as an immutable limit. It therefore signifies a possible breakthrough zone. S-curve theory leads analysts to speculate about a possible breakthrough during the five year period leading up to 1995. At that date magnetic strengths of 600+ kilo Joules per cubic metre could be aimed for. Increased magnetic strength will improve the performance parameters of all technologies utilising magnets, unleash new magnetic based technologies and threaten many traditional areas in the fields of matter processing, transporting and storing, energy processing, and information processing and storing. These effects will cascade through the entire technological landscape creating new markets and destroying others. The article gives an overview of these impacts on the technological landscape.

(1991). Using Patent Data for Technology Analysis and Planning. Research-Technology Management: Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 43-49.

Using US patents as a surrogate measure of technological positions, the competitive positions of the industrial nations (the US, United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Canada, and Japan) in high-technology areas during the period from 1975 to 1988 are examined. High-technology industry is defined as one which requires a high proportion of R&D expenditure and employs a high proportion of scientists and engineers. High-tech industries are further subdivided into four categories (equipment, consumer durable, nondurable, and intermediate products) in terms of their market and/or use. How different countries have specialized in different product market areas within the high tech sector is also examined. To better understand the impact of the patients, the citations per patent for the different countries and the citation performance ratio, which is the share of country's most highly cited patents on a worldwide basis, are examined. >

(1991). Culture and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management: Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 285-288.

The University of Illinois at Chicago Energy Resources Center (UIC/ERC) was originally selected to carry out the role of project integrator for a planned solicitation calling for proposals for innovative concepts for energy efficient systems in the chemical industry. The selection was made as a result of a DOE Announcement of Funding Opportunity issued by the DOE Golden Field Office. The U.S. DOE, due to funding constraints, decided to change the role of project integrator into one of technical support to DOE and the Vision 2020 Steering Committee in carrying out the oversight and management of the projects selected from the planned innovative concepts solicitation. This project, initiated in April, 2005, was established to provide that technical support to the U.S. DOE Innovative Energy Systems Pilot Project for the US Chemical Industry. In the late summer of 2006, and as a continuation of the baseline technology analysis conducted by UIC/ERC under this project, DOE requested that UIC/ERC assist in the development of “technology briefs” in support of the DOE Save Energy Now program. The 100 technology briefs developed under this contract were utilized by the Energy Experts as part of their Energy Saving Assessments (ESA).

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight; Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.

In June 2007, the European Parliament’s Scientific Options Assessment (STOA) Panel celebrated its 20th anniversary with an exhibition at the Parliament’s premises in Strasbourg. The opening ceremony included speeches by the Parliament’s president, Hans-Gert Pottering, and the European Commissioner responsible for Science and Research, Janez Potocnik. His predecessor, Philippe Busquin is now the chairman of the STOA panel which since his assumption of the chair has had a framework contract with a group of technology assessment institutions working for national or regional parliaments in Europe. This arrangement is leading to the production of a series of reports, based mainly on a review of existing literature and the involvement of experts. In particular M. Busquin, as chairman of the panel, has noted several times that such reports would also be of interest to national parliaments, notably those without their own capacities for technology assessment. In order to facilitate the necessary exchange, contacts have been established with the Directorate General Research of the European Commission, the organisation Busquin supervised for 5 years. While there is (no longer) any unit with explicit responsibility for technology assessment in DG Research, there is a Directorate with responsibility for, among other things, foresight. A meeting to sound out the feasibility of a Commission-funded project to disseminate findings for the STOA Panel included a discussion on the distinction between technology assessment and foresight, which finished with the conclusion that they overlap, although the two should not be totally confounded.

This Special Issue features seven papers from the Second International Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on the Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making organised i...

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight; Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.

This paper reflects on the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so-called grand challenges. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

International audience; This paper presents an analysis of the electrical origins of Slow Write Driver Faults (SWDFs) [1] that may affect SRAM write drivers in 65nm technology. This type of fault is the consequence of resistive-open defects in the control part of the write driver. It involves an erroneous write operation when the same write driver performs two successive write operations with opposite data values. In the first part of the paper, we present the SWDF electrical phenomena and their consequences on the SRAM functioning. Next, we show how SWDFs can be sensitized and observed and how a standard March test is able to detect this type of fault.

This paper takes a look at Clayton Christensen 's theory of disruptive technologies and how Christensen's theory relates to other innovation theories. It also proposes a new layer of analysis to this theory to better link the technology analysis to the market analysis of any given technology product. This layer suggests that complementarity and substitutability are important criteria for technologies to be market disruptions or sustaining changes.

The Sandia Petaflops Planner is a tool for projecting the design and performance of parallel supercomputers into the future. The mathematical basis of these projections is the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS, or a detailed version of Moore's Law) and DOE balance factors for supercomputer procurements. The planner is capable of various forms of scenario analysis, cost estimation, and technology analysis. The tool is described along with technology conclusions regarding PFLOPS-level supercomputers in the upcoming decade.

Pruet Production Co. and the Center for Sedimentary Basin Studies at the University of Alabama, in cooperation with Texas A&M University, Mississippi State University, University of Mississippi, and Wayne Stafford and Associates are undertaking a focused, comprehensive, integrated and multidisciplinary study of Upper Jurassic Smackover carbonates (Class II Reservoir), involving reservoir characterization and 3-D modeling and an integrated field demonstration project at Womack Hill Oil Field Unit, Choctaw and Clarke Counties, Alabama, Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. The principal objectives of the project are: increasing the productivity and profitability of the Womack Hill Field Unit, thereby extending the economic life of this Class II Reservoir and transferring effectively and in a timely manner the knowledge gained and technology developed from this project to producers who are operating other domestic fields with Class II Reservoirs. The principal research efforts for Year 3 of the project have been recovery technology analysis and recovery technology evaluation. The research focus has primarily been on well test analysis, 3-D reservoir simulation, microbial core experiments, and the decision to acquire new seismic data for the Womack Hill Field area. Although Geoscientific Reservoir Characterization and 3-D Geologic Modeling have been completed and Petrophysical and Engineering Characterization and Microbial Characterization are essentially on schedule, a no-cost extension until September 30, 2003, has been granted by DOE so that new seismic data for the Womack Hill Field can be acquired and interpreted to assist in the determination as to whether Phase II of the project should be implemented.

From the beginning of 1980s, the Korean government has focused on technology development plans which eventually enhance the national productivity and boost the economy. The technological development plan for information appliances was initiated by ETRI in Korea, a government funding Research Institute, for enhancing the technological level of the information technology industry. The plan was set in 2000 and is now being performed. The government funding research in electronics field is normally performed by ETRI, sometimes co-worked by companies. The research on the information appliance development is being performed by ETRI supported by several medium size private companies. The authors call this type of research an Industry-Government-Research Institute Consortium.

This paper presents a method employing genetic algorithms in conjunction with advanced technology analysis methods. This method is intended to assist decision makers in selection technology concepts for incorporation into future products, especially for those situations where there are many technology options available. Emphasis is placed here on developing the means by which technology incompatibilities can be modeled and examination of how these incompatibilities impact the final solution. This is then demonstrated for a set of 36 aircraft technologies of current interest. System figures of merit include environmental impact, vehicle performance, and economic cost.

(1992). Developments towards the fifth generation model of innovation. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management: Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 73-75.

Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008. They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels., JRC.J.2-Knowledge for Growth