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Study Objective: The current outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa is the largest on record and has overwhelmed the capacity of local health systems and the international community to provide sufficient isolation and treatment of all suspected cases. The goal of this study is to develop a clinical prediction model that can help clinicians risk-stratify patients with suspected Ebola virus disease in the context of such an epidemic., Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed of patient data collected during routine clinical care at the Bong County Ebola Treatment Unit in Liberia during its first 16 weeks of operation. The predictive power of 14 clinical and epidemiologic variables was measured against the primary outcome of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease, using logistic regression to develop a final prediction model. Bootstrap sampling was used to assess the internal validity of the model and estimate its performance in a simulated validation cohort., Results: Ebola virus disease testing results were available for 382 (97%) of 395 patients admitted to the Ebola treatment unit during the study period. A total of 160 patients (42%) tested positive for Ebola virus disease. Logistic regression analysis identified 6 variables independently predictive of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease, including sick contact, diarrhea, loss of appetite, muscle pains, difficulty swallowing, and absence of abdominal pain. The Ebola Prediction Score, constructed with these 6 variables, had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.80) for the prediction of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease. Patients with higher Ebola Prediction Scores had higher likelihoods of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease., Conclusion: The Ebola Prediction Score can be used by clinicians as an adjunct to current Ebola virus disease case definitions to risk-stratify patients with suspected Ebola virus disease. Clinicians can use this new tool for the purpose of cohorting patients within the suspected-disease ward of an Ebola treatment unit or community-based isolation center to prevent nosocomial infection or as a triage tool when patient numbers overwhelm available capacity. Given the inherent limitations of clinical prediction models, however, a low-cost, point-of-care test that can rapidly and definitively exclude Ebola virus disease in patients should be a research priority., (Copyright © 2015 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

West Africa is currently witnessing the most extensive Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak so far recorded. Until now, there have been 27,013 reported cases and 11,134 deaths. The origin of the virus is thought to have been a zoonotic transmission from a bat to a two-year-old boy in December 2013 (ref. 2). From this index case the virus was spread by human-to-human contact throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, the origin of the particular virus in each country and time of transmission is not known and currently relies on epidemiological analysis, which may be unreliable owing to the difficulties of obtaining patient information. Here we trace the genetic evolution of EBOV in the current outbreak that has resulted in multiple lineages. Deep sequencing of 179 patient samples processed by the European Mobile Laboratory, the first diagnostics unit to be deployed to the epicentre of the outbreak in Guinea, reveals an epidemiological and evolutionary history of the epidemic from March 2014 to January 2015. Analysis of EBOV genome evolution has also benefited from a similar sequencing effort of patient samples from Sierra Leone. Our results confirm that the EBOV from Guinea moved into Sierra Leone, most likely in April or early May. The viruses of the Guinea/Sierra Leone lineage mixed around June/July 2014. Viral sequences covering August, September and October 2014 indicate that this lineage evolved independently within Guinea. These data can be used in conjunction with epidemiological information to test retrospectively the effectiveness of control measures, and provides an unprecedented window into the evolution of an ongoing viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak.

Background: As West Africa continues to suffer from a deadly Ebola epidemic, the national health sectors struggle to minimize the damages and stop the spread of disease., Methods: A cohort of inhabitants of a small village and an Ebola hot zone in Sinoe County of Liberia was followed on a day-by-day basis to search for new cases and to minimize the spread of Ebola to the other community members or to other regions. Technical, clinical, and humanistic aspects of the response are discussed in this report., Results: Of the 22 confirmed Ebola cases in Sinoe County since the beginning of outbreak (June 16, 2014), 7 cases were inhabitants of Polay Town, a small village 5.5 miles east of Greenville, the Sinoe County capital. After the last wave of outbreak at the beginning of December, enhanced response activity provided essential coordination and mobilized the resources to stop the epidemic. Despite unprotected contacts in crowded houses, no new cases were detected among the contact families, or in the surrounding houses or communities., Conclusions: Strong national mobilization in a decentralized but harmonized system at the community level has been of great value in controlling the epidemic in Liberia. The major interventions include epidemiological surveillance, public information dissemination, effective communication, case management, and infection control., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August--which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.

As of July 1, 2015, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone have reported a total of 27,443 confirmed, probable, and suspected Ebola virus disease (Ebola) cases and 11,220 deaths. Guinea and Sierra Leone have yet to interrupt transmission of Ebola virus. In January, 2016, Liberia successfully achieved Ebola transmission-free status, with no new Ebola cases occurring during a 42-day period; however, new Ebola cases were reported beginning June 29, 2015. Local cultural practices and beliefs have posed challenges to disease control, and therefore, targeted, timely health messages are needed to address practices and misperceptions that might hinder efforts to stop the spread of Ebola. As early as September 2014, Ebola spread to most counties in Liberia. To assess Ebola-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) in the community, CDC epidemiologists who were deployed to the counties (field team), carried out a survey conducted by local trained interviewers. The survey was conducted in September and October 2014 in five counties in Liberia with varying cumulative incidence of Ebola cases. Survey results indicated several findings. First, basic awareness of Ebola was high across all surveyed populations (median correct responses = 16 of 17 questions on knowledge of Ebola transmission; range = 2-17). Second, knowledge and understanding of Ebola symptoms were incomplete (e.g., 61% of respondents said they would know if they had Ebola symptoms). Finally, certain fears about the disease were present: >90% of respondents indicated a fear of Ebola patients, >40% a fear of cured patients, and >50% a fear of treatment units (expressions of this last fear were greater in counties with lower Ebola incidence). This survey, which was conducted at a time when case counts were rapidly increasing in Liberia, indicated limited knowledge of Ebola symptoms and widespread fear of Ebola treatment units despite awareness of communication messages. Continued efforts are needed to address cultural practices and beliefs to interrupt Ebola transmission.

In response to the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (Ebola) outbreak in West Africa, the U.S. government deployed approximately 2,500 military personnel to support the government of Liberia. Their primary missions were to construct Ebola treatment units (ETUs), train health care workers to staff ETUs, and provide laboratory testing capacity for Ebola. Service members were explicitly prohibited from engaging in activities that could result in close contact with an Ebola-infected patient or coming in contact with the remains of persons who had died from unknown causes. Military units performed twice-daily monitoring of temperature and review of exposures and symptoms ("unit monitoring") on all persons throughout deployment, exit screening at the time of departure from Liberia, and post-deployment monitoring for 21 days at segregated, controlled monitoring areas on U.S. military installations. A total of 32 persons developed a fever during deployment from October 25, 2014, through February 27, 2015; none had a known Ebola exposure or developed Ebola infection. Monitoring of all deployed service members revealed no Ebola exposures or infections. Given their activity restrictions and comprehensive monitoring while deployed to Liberia, U.S. military personnel constitute a unique population with a lower risk for Ebola exposure compared with those working in the country without such measures.

Background: The ongoing Ebola epidemic in parts of west Africa largely overwhelmed health-care systems in 2014, making adequate care for malaria impossible and threatening the gains in malaria control achieved over the past decade. We quantified this additional indirect burden of Ebola virus disease., Methods: We estimated the number of cases and deaths from malaria in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone from Demographic and Health Surveys data for malaria prevalence and coverage of malaria interventions before the Ebola outbreak. We then removed the effect of treatment and hospital care to estimate additional cases and deaths from malaria caused by reduced health-care capacity and potential disruption of delivery of insecticide-treated bednets. We modelled the potential effect of emergency mass drug administration in affected areas on malaria cases and health-care demand., Findings: If malaria care ceased as a result of the Ebola epidemic, untreated cases of malaria would have increased by 45% (95% credible interval 43-49) in Guinea, 88% (83-93) in Sierra Leone, and 140% (135-147) in Liberia in 2014. This increase is equivalent to 3·5 million (95% credible interval 2·6 million to 4·9 million) additional untreated cases, with 10,900 (5700-21,400) additional malaria-attributable deaths. Mass drug administration and distribution of insecticide-treated bednets timed to coincide with the 2015 malaria transmission season could largely mitigate the effect of Ebola virus disease on malaria., Interpretation: These findings suggest that untreated malaria cases as a result of reduced health-care capacity probably contributed substantially to the morbidity caused by the Ebola crisis. Mass drug administration can be an effective means to mitigate this burden and reduce the number of non-Ebola fever cases within health systems., Funding: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2015 Walker et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

To support Liberia's response to the ongoing Ebola virus (EBOV) disease epidemic in Western Africa, we established in-country advanced genomic capabilities to monitor EBOV evolution. Twenty-five EBOV genomes were sequenced at the Liberian Institute for Biomedical Research, which provided an in-depth view of EBOV diversity in Liberia during September 2014-February 2015. These sequences were consistent with a single virus introduction to Liberia; however, shared ancestry with isolates from Mali indicated at least 1 additional instance of movement into or out of Liberia. The pace of change is generally consistent with previous estimates of mutation rate. We observed 23 nonsynonymous mutations and 1 nonsense mutation. Six of these changes are within known binding sites for sequence-based EBOV medical countermeasures; however, the diagnostic and therapeutic impact of EBOV evolution within Liberia appears to be low.

As part of the international response to control the recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the Department of Defense has deployed military personnel to train Liberians to manage the disease and build treatment units and a hospital for health care volunteers. These steps have assisted in providing a robust medical system and augment Ebola diagnostic capability within the affected nations. In order to prepare for the deployment of U.S. military personnel, the infectious disease risks of the regions must be determined. This evaluation allows for the establishment of appropriate force health protection posture for personnel while deployed, as well as management plans for illnesses presenting after redeployment. Our objective was to detail the epidemiology and infectious disease risks for military personnel in West Africa, particularly for Liberia, along with lessons learned from prior deployments., (Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.)

The purpose of this article is to uncover the extent of sexual gender based violence (GBV) experienced by a convenience sample of students from select counties in Liberia and to understand the disclosure experiences of those victims willing to come forward. Girls (n=758) and boys (n=1,100) were asked about their sexual GBV experiences including their disclosure experiences, if applicable. Results indicated that sexual violation (i.e., peeping or inappropriate touching) was found among both girls and boys. Sexual coercion (i.e., forced sex) was more prevalent than transactional sex (i.e., trading sex for grades or money). Both sexual coercion and transactional sex were reported by more girls than boys, yet the rates for the most severe form of sexual violence (i.e., sexual coercion) were high for both girls (30%) and boys (22%). When students were asked if they told anyone, 38% reported that they did disclose their experiences. This study contributes to a small but growing body of research to document the prevalence and types of sexual violence against children in Liberia. Consistent with other studies, the evidence shows that sexual violence against boys and girls is occurring at alarming rates., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy candidate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest that if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benefit of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts.

As one of the three West African countries highly affected by the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic, Liberia reported approximately 10,000 cases. The Ebola epidemic in Liberia was marked by intense urban transmission, multiple community outbreaks with source cases occurring in patients coming from the urban areas, and outbreaks in health care facilities (HCFs). This report, based on data from routine case investigations and contact tracing, describes efforts to stop the last known chain of Ebola transmission in Liberia. The index patient became ill on December 29, 2014, and the last of 21 associated cases was in a patient admitted into an Ebola treatment unit (ETU) on February 18, 2015. The chain of transmission was stopped because of early detection of new cases; identification, monitoring, and support of contacts in acceptable settings; effective triage within the health care system; and rapid isolation of symptomatic contacts. In addition, a "sector" approach, which divided Montserrado County into geographic units, facilitated the ability of response teams to rapidly respond to community needs. In the final stages of the outbreak, intensive coordination among partners and engagement of community leaders were needed to stop transmission in densely populated Montserrado County. A companion report describes the efforts to enhance infection prevention and control efforts in HCFs. After February 19, no additional clusters of Ebola cases have been detected in Liberia. On May 9, the World Health Organization declared the end of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia.

From mid-January to mid-February 2015, all confirmed Ebola virus disease (Ebola) cases that occurred in Liberia were epidemiologically linked to a single index patient from the St. Paul Bridge area of Montserrado County. Of the 22 confirmed patients in this cluster, eight (36%) sought and received care from at least one of 10 non-Ebola health care facilities (HCFs), including clinics and hospitals in Montserrado and Margibi counties, before admission to an Ebola treatment unit. After recognition that three patients in this emerging cluster had received care from a non-Ebola treatment unit, and in response to the risk for Ebola transmission in non-Ebola treatment unit health care settings, a focused infection prevention and control (IPC) rapid response effort for the immediate area was developed to target facilities at increased risk for exposure to a person with Ebola (Ring IPC). The Ring IPC approach, which provided rapid, intensive, and short-term IPC support to HCFs in areas of active Ebola transmission, was an addition to Liberia's proposed longer term national IPC strategy, which focused on providing a comprehensive package of IPC training and support to all HCFs in the country. This report describes possible health care worker exposures to the cluster's eight patients who sought care from an HCF and implementation of the Ring IPC approach. On May 9, 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia.

On March 20, 2015, 30 days after the most recent confirmed Ebola Virus Disease (Ebola) patient in Liberia was isolated, Ebola was laboratory confirmed in a woman in Monrovia. The investigation identified only one epidemiologic link to Ebola: unprotected vaginal intercourse with a survivor. Published reports from previous outbreaks have demonstrated Ebola survivors can continue to harbor virus in immunologically privileged sites for a period of time after convalescence. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen as long as 82 days after symptom onset and viral RNA has been detected in semen up to 101 days after symptom onset. One instance of possible sexual transmission of Ebola has been reported, although the accompanying evidence was inconclusive. In addition, possible sexual transmission of Marburg virus, a filovirus related to Ebola, was documented in 1968. This report describes the investigation by the Government of Liberia and international response partners of the source of Liberia's latest Ebola case and discusses the public health implications of possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus. Based on information gathered in this investigation, CDC now recommends that contact with semen from male Ebola survivors be avoided until more information regarding the duration and infectiousness of viral shedding in body fluids is known. If male survivors have sex (oral, vaginal, or anal), a condom should be used correctly and consistently every time.

Background: To combat the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa, the World Health Organization urged the rapid evaluation of convalescent whole blood (CWB) and plasma (CP) transfusion therapy. However, the feasibility and likely impacts of broad implementation of transfusions are yet unknown., Methods: We extended an Ebola virus transmission model published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to include hospital-based convalescent donations and transfusions. Using recent epidemiological estimates for EVD in Liberia and assuming that convalescent transfusions reduce the case-fatality rate to 12.5% (range, 7.5%-17.5%), we projected the impacts of a countrywide ramp-up of transfusion therapy., Results: Under the 10% case-hospitalization rate estimated for Liberia in September 2014, large-scale CP therapy is expected to save 3586 lives by October 2015 (3.1% mortality reduction; 95% confidence interval [CI], .52%-4.5%). Under a higher 30% hospitalization rate, CP transfusions are expected to save 151 lives (0.9% of the total; 95% CI, .21%-11%)., Conclusions: Transfusion therapy for EVD is a low-cost measure that can potentially save many lives in West Africa but will not measurably influence the prevalence. Under all scenarios considered, CP transfusions are predicted to achieve greater reductions in mortality than CWB., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The West African Ebola epidemic has demonstrated that the existing range of medical and epidemiological responses to emerging disease outbreaks is insufficient, especially in post-conflict contexts with exceedingly poor healthcare infrastructures. In this context, community-based responses have proven vital for containing Ebola virus disease (EVD) and shifting the epidemic curve. Despite a surge in interest in local innovations that effectively contained the epidemic, the mechanisms for community-based response remain unclear. This study provides baseline information on community-based epidemic control priorities and identifies innovative local strategies for containing EVD in Liberia., Methodology/principal Findings: This study was conducted in September 2014 in 15 communities in Monrovia and Montserrado County, Liberia--one of the epicenters of the Ebola outbreak. Findings from 15 focus group discussions with 386 community leaders identified strategies being undertaken and recommendations for what a community-based response to Ebola should look like under then-existing conditions. Data were collected on the following topics: prevention, surveillance, care-giving, community-based treatment and support, networks and hotlines, response teams, Ebola treatment units (ETUs) and hospitals, the management of corpses, quarantine and isolation, orphans, memorialization, and the need for community-based training and education. Findings have been presented as community-based strategies and recommendations for (1) prevention, (2) treatment and response, and (3) community sequelae and recovery. Several models for community-based management of the current Ebola outbreak were proposed. Additional findings indicate positive attitudes towards early Ebola survivors, and the need for community-based psychosocial support., Conclusions/significance: Local communities' strategies and recommendations give insight into how urban Liberian communities contained the EVD outbreak while navigating the systemic failures of the initial state and international response. Communities in urban Liberia adapted to the epidemic using multiple coping strategies. In the absence of health, infrastructural and material supports, local people engaged in self-reliance in order to contain the epidemic at the micro-social level. These innovations were regarded as necessary, but as less desirable than a well-supported health-systems based response; and were seen as involving considerable individual, social, and public health costs, including heightened vulnerability to infection.

Objective: The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country., Materials and Methods: A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P < 0.05) and best performance compared to linear and exponential models. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict LF cases for a prospective 5 years period, covering 2013-2017., Results: The two-stage predictive model of LF case-pattern between 2013 and 2017 was characterized by a prospective decline within the South-coast County of Grand Bassa over the forecast period and an upward case-trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County., Conclusion: This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Over the span of a few weeks during July and August 2014, events in West Africa changed perceptions of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from an exotic tropical disease to a priority for global health security. We describe observations during that time of a field team from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and personnel of the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. We outline the early epidemiology of EVD within Liberia, including the practical limitations on surveillance and the effect on the country's health care system, such as infections among health care workers. During this time, priorities included strengthening EVD surveillance; establishing safe settings for EVD patient care (and considering alternative isolation and care models when Ebola Treatment Units were overwhelmed); improving infection control practices; establishing an incident management system; and working with Liberian airport authorities to implement EVD screening of departing passengers.

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Objectives: We sought to develop a curriculum and collaboration model for law enforcement and mental health services in Liberia, West Africa., Methods: In 2013 we conducted key informant interviews with law enforcement officers, mental health clinicians, and mental health service users in Liberia, and facilitated a 3-day curriculum workshop., Results: Mental health service users reported prior violent interactions with officers. Officers and clinicians identified incarceration and lack of treatment of mental health service users as key problems, and they jointly drafted a curriculum based upon the Crisis Intervention Team (CIT) model adapted for Liberia. Officers' mental health knowledge improved from 64% to 82% on workshop assessments (t=5.52; P<.01). Clinicians' attitudes improved (t=2.42; P=.03). Six months after the workshop, 69% of clinicians reported improved engagement with law enforcement. Since the Ebola outbreak, law enforcement and clinicians have collaboratively addressed diverse public health needs., Conclusions: Collaborations between law enforcement and mental health clinicians can benefit multiple areas of public health, as demonstrated by partnerships to improve responses during the Ebola epidemic. Future research should evaluate training implementation and outcomes including stigma reduction, referrals, and use of force.

West Africa is experiencing its first epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola). As of February 9, Liberia has reported 8,864 Ebola cases, of which 3,147 were laboratory-confirmed. Beginning in August 2014, the Liberia Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW), supported by CDC, the World Health Organization (WHO), and others, began systematically investigating and responding to Ebola outbreaks in remote areas. Because many of these areas lacked mobile telephone service, easy road access, and basic infrastructure, flexible and targeted interventions often were required. Development of a national strategy for the Rapid Isolation and Treatment of Ebola (RITE) began in early October. The strategy focuses on enhancing capacity of county health teams (CHT) to investigate outbreaks in remote areas and lead tailored responses through effective and efficient coordination of technical and operational assistance from the MOHSW central level and international partners. To measure improvements in response indicators and outcomes over time, data from investigations of 12 of 15 outbreaks in remote areas with illness onset dates of index cases during July 16-November 20, 2014, were analyzed. The times to initial outbreak alerts and durations of the outbreaks declined over that period while the proportions of patients who were isolated and treated increased. At the same time, the case-fatality rate in each outbreak declined. Implementation of strategies, such as RITE, to rapidly respond to rural outbreaks of Ebola through coordinated and tailored responses can successfully reduce transmission and improve outcomes.

On September 30, 2014, the Bong County health officer notified the county Ebola task force of a growing outbreak of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in Mawah, a village of approximately 800 residents. During September 9-16, household quarantine had been used by the community in response to a new Ebola infection. Because the infection led to a local outbreak that grew during September 17-20, county authorities suggested community quarantine be considered, and beginning on approximately September 20, the Fuamah District Ebola Task Force (Task Force) engaged Mawah leaders to provide education about Ebola and to secure cooperation for the proposed measures. On September 30, Bong County requested technical assistance to develop strategies to limit transmission in the village and to prevent spread to other areas. The county health team, with support from the Task Force and CDC, traveled to Mawah on October 1 and identified approximately two dozen residents reporting symptoms consistent with Ebola. Because of an ambulance shortage, 2 days were required, beginning October 1, to transport the patients to an Ebola treatment unit in Monrovia. Community quarantine measures, consisting of restrictions on entering or leaving Mawah, regulated river crossings, and market closures, were implemented on October 1. Local leaders raised concerns about availability of medical care and food. The local clinic was reopened on October 11, and food was distributed on October 12. The Task Force reported a total of 22 cases of Ebola in Mawah during September 9-October 2, of which 19 were fatal. During October 3-November 21, no new cases were reported in the village. Involving community members during planning and implementation helped support a safe and effective community quarantine in Mawah.

As late as September 14, 2014, Liberia's Gbarpolu County had reported zero cases of Ebola virus disease (Ebola). On October 25, the Bong County Health Team, a local health department in the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW), received confirmation of Ebola in a man who had recently left Geleyansiesu, a remote village of approximately 800 residents, after his wife and daughter had died of illnesses consistent with Ebola. MOHSW requested assistance from CDC, the World Health Organization, and other international partners to investigate and confirm the outbreak in Geleyansiesu and begin interventions to interrupt transmission. A total of 22 cases were identified, of which 18 (82%) were laboratory confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction. There were 16 deaths (case-fatality rate = 73%). Without road access to or direct telecommunications with the village, interventions had to be tailored to the local context. Public health interventions included 1) education of the community about Ebola, transmission of the virus, signs and symptoms, the importance of isolating ill patients from family members, and the potential benefits of early diagnosis and treatment; 2) establishment of mechanisms to alert health authorities of possibly infected persons leaving the village to facilitate safe transport to the closest Ebola treatment unit (ETU); 3) case investigation, contact tracing, and monitoring of contacts; 4) training in hygienic burial of dead bodies; 5) active case finding and diagnosis; and 6) isolation and limited no-touch treatment in the village of patients unwilling or unable to seek care at an ETU. The findings of this investigation could inform interventions aimed at controlling focal outbreaks in difficult-to-reach communities, which has been identified as an important component of the effort to eliminate Ebola from Liberia.

On October 16, 2014, a woman aged 48 years traveled from Monrovia, Liberia, to the Kayah region of Rivercess County, a remote, resource-poor, and sparsely populated region of Liberia, and died on October 21 with symptoms compatible with Ebola virus disease (Ebola). She was buried in accordance with local tradition, which included grooming, touching, and kissing the body by family and other community members while it was being prepared for burial. During October 24-November 12, eight persons with probable and 13 with confirmed Ebola epidemiologically linked to the deceased woman had onset of symptoms. Nineteen of the 21 persons lived in five nearby villages in Kayah region; two, both with probable cases, lived in neighboring Grand Bassa County (Figure). Four of the confirmed cases in Kayah were linked by time and location, although the source case could not be determined because the patients had more than one exposure.

As the most recent outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa continues to grow since its initial recognition as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, an unanswered question is what is the cost of a case of Ebola? Understanding this cost will help decision makers better understand the impact of each case of EVD, benchmark this against that of other diseases, prioritize which cases may require response, and begin to estimate the cost of Ebola outbreaks. To date, the scientific literature has not characterized this cost per case. Therefore, we developed a mathematical model to estimate the cost of an EVD case from the provider and societal perspectives in the three most affected countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Our model estimates the total societal cost of an EVD case with full recovery ranges from $480 to $912, while that of an EVD case not surviving ranges from $5929 to $18 929, varying by age and country. Therefore, as of 10 December 2014, the estimated total societal costs of all reported EVD cases in these three countries range from $82 to potentially over $356 million.

Background: The 2014 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in parts of west Africa defines an unprecedented health threat. We developed a model of Ebola virus transmission that integrates detailed geographical and demographic data from Liberia to overcome the limitations of non-spatial approaches in projecting the disease dynamics and assessing non-pharmaceutical control interventions., Methods: We modelled the movements of individuals, including patients not infected with Ebola virus, seeking assistance in health-care facilities, the movements of individuals taking care of patients infected with Ebola virus not admitted to hospital, and the attendance of funerals. Individuals were grouped into randomly assigned households (size based on Demographic Health Survey data) that were geographically placed to match population density estimates on a grid of 3157 cells covering the country. The spatial agent-based model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. The model was used to estimate Ebola virus transmission parameters and investigate the effectiveness of interventions such as availability of Ebola treatment units, safe burials procedures, and household protection kits., Findings: Up to Aug 16, 2014, we estimated that 38·3% of infections (95% CI 17·4-76·4) were acquired in hospitals, 30·7% (14·1-46·4) in households, and 8·6% (3·2-11·8) while participating in funerals. We noted that the movement and mixing, in hospitals at the early stage of the epidemic, of patients infected with Ebola virus and those not infected was a sufficient driver of the reported pattern of spatial spread. The subsequent decrease of incidence at country and county level is attributable to the increasing availability of Ebola treatment units (which in turn contributed to drastically decreased hospital transmission), safe burials, and distribution of household protection kits., Interpretation: The model allows assessment of intervention options and the understanding of their role in the decrease in incidence reported since Sept 7, 2014. High-quality data (eg, to estimate household secondary attack rate, contact patterns within hospitals, and effects of ongoing interventions) are needed to reduce uncertainty in model estimates., Funding: US Defense Threat Reduction Agency, US National Institutes of Health., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Previous reports have shown that an Ebola outbreak can be slowed, and eventually stopped, by placing Ebola patients into settings where there is reduced risk for onward Ebola transmission, such as Ebola treatment units (ETUs) and community care centers (CCCs) or equivalent community settings that encourage changes in human behaviors to reduce transmission risk, such as making burials safe and reducing contact with Ebola patients. Using cumulative case count data from Liberia up to August 28, 2014, the EbolaResponse model previously estimated that without any additional interventions or further changes in human behavior, there would have been approximately 23,000 reported Ebola cases by October 31, 2014. In actuality, there were 6,525 reported cases by that date. To estimate the effectiveness of ETUs and CCCs or equivalent community settings in preventing greater Ebola transmission, CDC applied the EbolaResponse model to the period September 23-October 31, 2014, in Liberia. The results showed that admitting Ebola patients to ETUs alone prevented an estimated 2,244 Ebola cases. Having patients receive care in CCCs or equivalent community settings with a reduced risk for Ebola transmission prevented an estimated 4,487 cases. Having patients receive care in either ETUs or CCCs or in equivalent community settings, prevented an estimated 9,100 cases, apparently as the result of a synergistic effect in which the impact of the combined interventions was greater than the sum of the two interventions. Caring for patients in ETUs, CCCs, or in equivalent community settings with reduced risk for transmission can be important components of a successful public health response to an Ebola epidemic.

In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been sustained for greater than 12 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to several key policy questions concerning the path to containment. What is the relative importance of nosocomial transmission compared with community-acquired infection? How much must hospital capacity increase to provide care for the anticipated patient burden? To which interventions will Ebola transmission be most responsive? What must be done to achieve containment? In recent years, epidemic models have been used to guide public health interventions. But, model-based policy relies on high quality causal understanding of transmission, including the availability of appropriate dynamic transmission models and reliable reporting about the sequence of case incidence for model fitting, which were lacking for this epidemic. To investigate the range of potential transmission scenarios, we developed a multi-type branching process model that incorporates key heterogeneities and time-varying parameters to reflect changing human behavior and deliberate interventions in Liberia. Ensembles of this model were evaluated at a set of parameters that were both epidemiologically plausible and capable of reproducing the observed trajectory. Results of this model suggested that epidemic outcome would depend on both hospital capacity and individual behavior. Simulations suggested that if hospital capacity was not increased, then transmission might outpace the rate of isolation and the ability to provide care for the ill, infectious, and dying. Similarly, the model suggested that containment would require individuals to adopt behaviors that increase the rates of case identification and isolation and secure burial of the deceased. As of mid-October, it was unclear that this epidemic would be contained even by 99% hospitalization at the planned hospital capacity. A new version of the model, updated to reflect information collected during October and November 2014, predicts a significantly more constrained set of possible futures. This model suggests that epidemic outcome still depends very heavily on individual behavior. Particularly, if future patient hospitalization rates return to background levels (estimated to be around 70%), then transmission is predicted to remain just below the critical point around Reff = 1. At the higher hospitalization rate of 85%, this model predicts near complete elimination in March to June, 2015.