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The article discusses a study which investigated the reproductive skipping behavior of long-lived birds by supplementing nest examination to individual-based data. The study discovered that the probabilities of next breeding-site fidelity and reproduction for those temporarily gone from colony were lower, which suggests a lower intrinsic quality among intermittent breeders. It notes that the new probabilistic model allowed the researchers to refine the calculations of demographic parameters.

The Strait of Gibraltar has some of the highest maritime activity in the world. Its populations of cetaceans are threatened by noise, chemical pollution, and collisions by the many boats crossing the strait. One of the greatest threats identified in cetaceans in the Mediterranean are epizootics that severely affect the most sensitive vital rate in long-lived species: adult survival. By a multi-event analysis of a 16-year database of long-finned pilot whale photo identification capture–recapture data, we analysed adult survival in the Strait of Gibraltar's resident population and evaluated the possible effects of epizootics on this vital rate. We identified the large effect of a morbillivirus epizootic that occurred in 2006–2007, but we also revealed a second collapse in survival in 2011, probably due to another morbillivirus epizootic. These episodes seem to affect sexes differently, with females being less affected than males. Interestingly, the morbillivirus epizootic not only sharply decreased survival after the episode, but the effect extended over time, probably showing post-epizootic sequelae. These disease outbreaks have increased during the last decades worldwide and could be linked to anthropogenic threats such as organochlorine contamination. This may explain the high frequency of epizootics in the Gibraltar area. We warn about the conservation status of this long-finned pilot whale population and recommend the application of measures to reduce contamination on this nutrient-rich area to improve conditions for many marine species inhabiting this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical models about the benefits of philopatry predict that immigrant fitness can be higher, lower or similar to that of philopatrics depending on habitat heterogeneity, dispersal costs, distance between patches or population densities. In this study, we compared transience rates, local survival and recruitment among philopatric and immigrant individuals of Audouin's gull Larus audouinii, a long-lived bird with high dispersal capacities. Several previous studies have shown that these capacities were probably the result of adaptation to unstable and highly discrete habitats; hence, we tested the hypothesis that fitness components for philopatrics and immigrants were similar. During 1988-2006, ca. 27,800 chicks were marked in 31 colonies in the western Mediterranean metapopulation, and more than 52,000 resightings were made in a single, high-quality colony, to estimate local demographic parameters by capture-recapture analyses. Results suggest that, even though parameters related to site-tenacity (e.g. recapture rates) were higher for philopatrics than for immigrants, survival and recruitment were fundamentally similar. Small differences between philopatrics and immigrants were probably influenced by a highly suitable habitat at the study site, which reduced dispersal costs for immigrants; furthermore, the similarities in most fitness components were also probably the result of a life-history strategy of a species living in unpredictable, unstable habitats with high emigration rates among local populations, and with a relatively low cost of dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations near their equilibrium are expected to show density-dependence through a negative feedback on at least one demographic parameter, e.g. survival and/or productivity. Nevertheless, it is not always clear which vital rate is affected the most, and even less whether this dependence holds in open populations in which immigration and emigration are also important. We assessed the relative importance of population density in the variation of local survival, recruitment, proportion of transients (emigrants) and productivity through the analysis of detailed life-histories of 4286 seabirds from a colony that reached an apparent demographic equilibrium after a period of exponential increase. We provide evidence that the role of population density and resource availability changes according to the demographic parameter considered. Estimates indicated that transients increased from 5% to 20% over the study period, suggesting an average turnover of about 1400 individuals per year. The parameters most influenced by population density alone were local survival and probability of transience. Recruitment was negatively associated with population density during the increasing phase but unexpected high values were also recorded at high population levels. These high values were explained by a combination of population size and food availability. Mean productivity varied with food availability, independently from population variations. The population density alone explained up to a third of the yearly variation of the vital rates considered, suggesting that open populations are equally influenced by stochastic and density-independent events (such as environmental perturbations) than by intrinsic (i.e. density-dependent) factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause-specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long-term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female-based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two-sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause-specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear ( Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human-related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human-bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause-specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many marine top predators are experiencing significant declines due to anthropogenic impacts, and therefore reliable monitoring is essential to understand their population dynamics. We used Pollock's robust design capture–recapture modelling to assess the influence of oceanographic variables, artisanal fisheries and human disturbance on several demographic parameters (abundance, temporary emigration and survival) of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin ( Tursiops aduncus ), using long-term data on marked individuals from East Africa. Photo-identification data was collected over 551 boat-based surveys between 2006 and 2009, with 137 individuals identified. Our best fitting model indicated that exposure to tourism (represented by the number of tourist boats) increased the probability of dolphins seasonally emigrating from the study area. The return rate of temporary emigrants was negatively linked to the seasonal sea surface temperature, probably associated with food availability. That model supported the existence of heterogeneity in annual local survival estimates, with transient dolphins showing a lower value than resident individuals (0.78 and 0.98, respectively). Furthermore, abundance estimates showed a small population size ranging from 19 individuals (95% CI: 11–33) to a maximum of 104 dolphins (95% CI: 78–139). This small population, together with their high site fidelity and coastal distribution, might be particularly vulnerable to human disturbances. This study highlights the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on dolphin demography and population dynamics and the need to integrate these drivers to provide robust evidences for conservation stakeholders in an adaptive management framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In evolutionary and ecological studies, demographic parameters are commonly derived from detailed information collected on a limited number of individuals or in a confined sector of the breeding area. This partial monitoring is expected to underestimate survival and recruitment processes because individuals marked in a monitored location may move to or recruit in an unobservable site., We formulate a multi-event capture-recapture model using E- SURGE software which incorporates additional information on breeding dispersal and the proportion of monitored sites to obtain unbiased estimates of survival and recruitment rates. Using simulated data, we assessed the biases in recruitment, survival and population growth rate when monitoring 10-90% of the whole population in a short- and a long-lived species with low breeding dispersal. Finally, we illustrate the approach using real data from a long-term monitoring program of a colony of Scopoli's shearwaters Calonectris diomedea., We found that demographic parameters estimated without considering the proportion of the area monitored were generally underestimated. These biases caused a substantial error in the estimated population growth rate, especially when a low proportion of breeding individuals were monitored., The proposed capture-recapture model successfully corrected for partial monitoring and provided robust demographic estimates., Synthesis and applications. In many cases, animal breeding populations can only be monitored partially. Consequently, recruitment and immature survival are underestimated, but the extent of these biases depends on the proportion of the area that remains undetected and the degree of breeding dispersal. We present a new method to obtain robust and unbiased measures of survival and recruitment processes from capture-recapture data. The method can be applied to any monitored population regardless of the type of nests (e.g. artificial or natural) or breeding system (e.g. colonial or territorial animals), and it only relies on an estimate of the proportion of the monitored area. The unbiased estimates obtained by this method can be used to improve the reliability of predictions of demographic population models for species' conservation and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a long-term data set (26 years) from Audouin's Gull (Larus audouinii), a long-lived seabird, to address the relationship between the age-dependent pattern of reproductive performance and environmental conditions during breeding. Although theoretical models predict that the youngest and oldest breeders (due to inexperience and senescence, respectively) will perform less well than intermediate age classes, few empirical data exist regarding how this expected pattern varies with food availability. To assess the influence of age and food availability (corrected by population size of the main consumers to take into account density dependence) on a number of breeding parameters (laying dates, egg volume, clutch size, and hatching success), we modeled mean and variances of these parameters by incorporating heterogeneity into generalized linear models. All parameters varied with age and to different degrees, depending on food availability. As expected, performance improved with increased food supply, and the observed age pattern was quadratic, with poorer breeding performances occurring in extreme ages. For most parameters (except for laying dates, for which age and food did not interact), the pattern changed with food somewhat unexpectedly; the differences in performance between age classes were higher (i.e., the quadratic pattern was more noticeable) when food was more readily available than when food availability was lower. We suggest that, under poor environmental conditions, only high-quality individuals of the younger and older birds bred and that the differences in breeding performance between age classes were smaller. Although variances for egg volume were constant, variances for laying dates were highest for the youngest breeders and tended to decrease with age, either due to the selection of higher-quality individuals or to a greater frequency of birds skipping breeding with age, especially when food was in low supply. Our results show that mean and variances of breeding parameters changed with age, but that this pattern was different for each parameter and also varied according to food availability. It is likely that, other than food, certain additional factors (e.g., sex, cohort effects, density dependence) also influence changes in breeding performance with age, and this may preclude the finding of a common pattern among traits and among studies on different taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Information on the effectiveness of wildlife management actions is scarce, despite the great relevance of this type of information for maximizing conservation goals while minimizing resource expenditure. Here we assess the management effectiveness of a four-year hunting moratorium, addressed to protecting a declining waterbird game species: common coot Fulica atra. We also studied the indirect benefits that this management action could have had on a non-target endangered species (crested coot Fulica cristata), currently being reintroduced in the study region (Comunidad Valenciana, eastern Spain). We found that wintering common coots interrupted their marked negative trend coinciding with the hunting moratorium, and Before-After-Control-Impact modelling confirmed this fact. However breeding common coots continued their negative trend in numbers. We also found that crested coots increased their wintering numbers during the hunting moratorium years but not during breeding. We detected a strong and time variant cost of release on survival probability of crested coots, but annual survival probability was found to be constant and low for experienced birds, with no clear effects of the hunting moratorium on survival probability. We conclude that the moratorium had some positive effect on both species, but we suggest that lack of enforcement during a traditional hunting practice at the end of each hunting season, most likely precluded the moratorium having a long-lasting effect on the breeding numbers and probably on survival, of both species. Hence, when fully-enforced hunting moratoria are difficult to implement, we recommend the creation of hunting preserves of high habitat quality to attract coots during the winter, allowing its subsequent reproduction during the breeding season. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Conservation diagnosis of ex situ techniques (e.g. releasing chicks by hacking) cannot be evaluated without quantitative assessment of the fate of individuals, mainly their survival and recruitment. Here we use a long-term monitoring at a large spatial scale of a hacking programme (i.e. chick translocations) for Audouin’s gulls in an uninhabited site so as to establish a new breeding patch and reinforce the metapopulation. The success of the programme relied on the assumption that birds tend to recruit to the site where they fledge (i.e. they were philopatric). Multi-state capture-recapture models applied to a large dataset (more than 43,500 resights at 30 colonies during 1999–2010) were used to evaluate the survival of released chicks and the probability of being philopatric. Adult survival was high, but juvenile survival was lower than that of wild gulls, suggesting that there was a cost associated with hacking only during their first year of life. As expected, most released birds returned to the hacking site, but very few (including immigrants from abroad) attempted to breed here. Dispersal was inversely correlated with distance from the hacking site and positively associated with the population size of the patch (i.e. conspecific attraction). Even though most hacking procedures met the ecological conditions to succeed, results clearly showed that the program failed to establish a new breeding site. The ability of prospecting and the attraction made by conspecifics at established sites may be a constraint for the success of hacking programs, particularly for social and nomadic species. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Asymmetry between males and females in the energy they invest initially in reproduction has resulted in the evolution of differing reproductive strategies (caring females vs. competitive males). However, parental care in many birds is shared by both sexes suggesting that male energy expenditure in agonistic behaviors and courtship feeding might compensate female costs of clutch production. Here, we tested the hypothesis that initial investment in reproduction by both sexes in the Yellow-legged Gull (Larus michahellis), a species with biparental care, is similar from a physiological perspective. In this income breeder, female and male reproductive investment during early breeding can be ultimately related to muscular activity (local foraging effort required for clutch production in females and courtship feeding and agonistic behaviors in the case of males). Thus, we evaluated sex-specific patterns of creatine kinase (CK, IU/L) levels in plasma, an indicator of physical effort associated with muscular activity dependent behaviors, through incubation as a reflection of the physiological response of both sexes to the reproductive investment they made up to clutch completion. Raw levels of CK were related to plasma levels of total proteins (TP, g/dL) to account for the differential physiological state of individuals when sampled (i.e. differential dehydratation). Female costs of clutch production were associated with post-laying levels of CK/TP. We grouped females according to their relative investment in clutch production: <15.8%, 15.8 to 17.3% and >17.3% of field metabolic rate; which showed increasing values of CK/TP (24.6, 53.1 and 66.0IU/g, respectively). Moreover, we found similar CK/TP trends throughout incubation for both sexes (CK/TP=50.2− [3.3×days from laying]) suggesting similar physiological responses to reproductive effort and, therefore, analogous sex-specific initial investment. Thus, male investment in agonistic behaviors and courtship feeding apparently equaled female investment in clutch production. The use of CK measurements is revealed as a useful approach to investigating overall investment in reproduction for both sexes, providing further insights into our comprehension of reproductive strategies in seabirds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: It is often assumed that conservation actions targeting a threatened community (e.g. habitat protection) will result in similar benefits for all species. However, complex interactions between species, such as interference competition, may result in displacement of subordinate, vulnerable species. We analysed here the spatio-temporal population dynamics of a threatened seabird community since the protection in the 1980s of several breeding sites at the Ebro Delta, western Mediterranean, Spain during 1980–2007. Competition for the most suitable patches was governed by body size, with smaller species avoiding associations with larger, dominant species. We tested whether the density increase of the larger species (yellow-legged gull Larus michahellis and Audouin’s gull Larus audouinii) at La Banya (the highest quality patch within the Delta) affected species diversity at the local level. As expected, such diversity decreased, resulting also from the colonisation of other sites by smaller species, some abandoning the former area. The conservation paradox appeared because the interference competition was dominated not only by the largest species of the community, the yellow-legged gull, which is sometimes considered a pest species, but also by the vulnerable Audouin’s gull, a flagship species which has ca. 65% of the total world population at La Banya. Nevertheless, the availability of alternative patches within the Ebro Delta ensured a high biodiversity at regional scale. Results highlight the role of turnover of competing species within a community in ecosystem function and stability, and the importance of alternative sites and dispersal abilities for the conservation of vulnerable communities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Estimation d'une survie se′pare′e pour chaque sexe quand I'identification du sexe est incertaine Dans les espèces monomorphes, la détermination du sexe à partir du comportement est sujette à erreurs. Les auteurs développent des modèles de capture-recapture qui prennent en compte l'incertitude dans la détermination du sexe. Ils examinent la redondance en paramètres de quatre modèles de base dont les probabilités de capture et de survie sont constantes ou dépendantes du temps. Ds développent ensuite un modèle plus raffiné et plus adapté à des données portant sur le goéland d'Audouin ù quatre critères comportementaux distincts ont été employés. Ils examinent l'utilité d'incorporer le critère le moins fiable et la détermination génétique du sexe disponible pour une poignée d'individus. Ils discutent finalement les implications de leurs découvertes pour la planification des études de terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea turtles nest on tropical and subtropical beaches, where developmental success of egg clutches depends on nest temperature. Higher nest temperatures increase embryo and hatchling mortalities and produce female hatchlings. Nest shading has been used on some beaches to reduce nest temperatures, and thereby increase number of hatchlings and reduce female-biased sex ratios. We modeled short- and long-term effects of reducing mean nest temperatures on a leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) population for which the effect of temperature on sex ratios and emergence success (# hatchlings emerged/ # eggs) is well-established. We simulated mean nest temperature reductions of −0.5 °C, −1 °C, −1.5 °C and −2 °C in relation to current mean (30.4 °C) and projected population responses over 100 years. Additionally, we run climate change simulations of +0.5 °C, +1.0 °C and +2.0 °C to assess if shading could be needed after passing a certain threshold. Emergence success increased with reduced nest temperatures. However, lowering nest temperatures ultimately caused long-term declines in number of nesting females and total population size, because the number of female hatchlings was reduced. Because hatcheries are a widely-used conservation tool, caution must be used to avoid reducing the number of female hatchlings by lowering nest temperatures. Nest cooling may only be needed under critically low hatchling production and extremely biased female sex ratios that we only found at +2.0 °C. If nest shading is to be used, it should be applied strategically to optimize hatchling production with natural sex ratios to achieve both short-term conservation goals and long-term population sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patterns of behavioural variation and migratory connectivity are important characteristics of populations, particularly at the edges of species distributions, where processes involved in influencing evolutionary trajectories, such as divergence, mutual persistence, and natural hybridization, can occur. Here, we focused on two closely related seabird species that breed in the Mediterranean: Balearic shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) and Yelkouan shearwaters (Puffinus yelkouan). Genetic and phenotypic evidence of hybridization between the two species on Menorca (the eastern and westernmost island in the breeding ranges of the two shearwaters, respectively) has provided important insights into relationships between these recently diverged species. Nevertheless, levels of behavioural and ecological differentiation amongst these populations remain largely unknown. Using geolocation and stable isotopes, we compared the at-sea movement behaviour of birds from the Menorcan 'hybrid' population with the nearest neighbouring populations of Balearic and Yelkouan shearwaters. The Menorcan population displayed a suite of behavioural features intermediate to those seen in the two species (including migration strategies, breeding season movements and limited data on phenology). Our findings provide new evidence to support suggestions that the Menorcan population is admixed, and indicate a role of non-breeding behaviours in the evolutionary trajectories of Puffinus shearwaters in the Mediterranean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use complex systems science to explore the emergent behavioral patterns that typify eusocial species, using collective ant foraging as a paradigmatic example. Our particular aim is to provide a methodology to quantify how the collective orchestration of foraging provides functional advantages to ant colonies. For this, we combine (i) a purpose-built experimental arena replicating ant foraging across realistic spatial and temporal scales, and (ii) a set of analytical tools, grounded in information theory and spin-glass approaches, to explore the resulting data. This combined approach yields computational replicas of the colonies; these are high-dimensional models that store the experimental foraging patterns through a training process, and are then able to generate statistically similar patterns, in an analogous way to machine learning tools. These in silico models are then used to explore the colony performance under different resource availability scenarios. Our findings highlight how replicas of the colonies trained under constant and predictable experimental food conditions exhibit heightened foraging efficiencies, manifested in reduced times for food discovery and gathering, and accelerated transmission of information under similar conditions. However, these same replicas demonstrate a lack of resilience when faced with new foraging conditions. Conversely, replicas of colonies trained under fluctuating and uncertain food conditions reveal lower efficiencies at specific environments but increased resilience to shifts in food location., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The evolutionary theory of life histories predicts that there is a trade-off between survival and reproduction: since adult survival in long-lived organisms is high, then breeding investment is more variable and more dependent on conditions (e.g. food availability and individual experience). Clutch features influence fitness prospects, but how a bet hedger builds its clutch in temporally varying environments is quite unknown. Using 27-year data on 2847 clutches of known-age breeders, we analyse how Audouin's gulls ( Larus audouinii ), a species showing a combination of conservative and adaptive bet-hedging breeding strategies, can allocate energy by laying clutches and eggs of different sizes. Results show that both food availability and age influenced clutch size and total egg volume in a clutch. Interestingly, we found an interaction between food and age on egg parameters: total volume in two-egg clutches, laid mostly by younger breeders, did not significantly change with food availability and the quadratic pattern in clutch size over the range of ages was less marked as long as food conditions became harsher. With increased food, females invested more by building larger first eggs, whereas they were more conservative on second and third eggs. Furthermore, asymmetries in egg volume within three-egg clutches increased with food availability for old females. Egg size profiles of two-egg clutches suggest that gulls should exhibit progressive reduction of the size of the third egg before shifting to a two-egg clutch size. Food availability influenced all parameters studied, whereas age affected the amount of energy allocated for producing eggs (their size and number) but not the way of allocating those energies (i.e. asymmetries within the clutch). Despite the range of factors affecting the clutch, results suggest that females can allocate the amount of resources in a clutch optimally to increase their fitness under variable environments via bet-hedging., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Sudden changes in populations are ubiquitous in ecological systems, especially under perturbations. The agents of global change may increase the frequency and severity of anthropogenic perturbations, but complex populations' responses hamper our understanding of their dynamics and resilience. Furthermore, the long-term environmental and demographic data required to study those sudden changes are rare. Fitting dynamical models with an artificial intelligence algorithm to population fluctuations over 40 y in a social bird reveals that feedback in dispersal after a cumulative perturbation drives a population collapse. The collapse is well described by a nonlinear function mimicking social copying, whereby dispersal made by a few individuals induces others to leave the patch in a behavioral cascade for decision-making to disperse. Once a threshold for deterioration of the quality of the patch is crossed, there is a tipping point for a social response of runaway dispersal corresponding to social copying feedback. Finally, dispersal decreases at low population densities, which is likely due to the unwillingness of the more philopatric individuals to disperse. In providing the evidence of copying for the emergence of feedback in dispersal in a social organism, our results suggest a broader impact of self-organized collective dispersal in complex population dynamics. This has implications for the theoretical study of population and metapopulation nonlinear dynamics, including population extinction, and managing of endangered and harvested populations of social animals subjected to behavioral feedback loops.

Synchrony can have important consequences for long-term metapopulations persistence, community dynamics and ecosystems functioning. While the causes and consequences of intra-specific synchrony on population size and demographic rates have received considerable attention only a few factors that may affect inter-specific synchrony have been described. We formulate the hypothesis that food subsidies can buffer the influence of environmental stochasticity on community dynamics, disrupting and masking originally synchronized systems. To illustrate this hypothesis, we assessed the consequences of European policies implementation affecting subsidy availability on the temporal synchrony of egg volume as a proxy of breeding investment in two sympatric marine top predators with differential subsidy use. We show how 7-year synchrony appears on egg volume fluctuations after subsidy cessation suggesting that food subsidies could disrupt interspecific synchrony. Moreover, cross correlation increased after subsidy cessation and environmental buffering seems to act during synchronization period. We emphasize that subsidies dynamics and waste management provide novel insights on the emergence of synchrony in natural populations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Age drives differences in fitness components typically due to lower performances of younger and senescent individuals, and changes in breeding age structure influence population dynamics and persistence. However, determining age and age structure is challenging in most species, where distinctive age features are lacking and available methods require substantial efforts or invasive procedures. Here we explore the potential to assess the age of breeders, or at least to identify young and senescent individuals, by measuring some breeding parameters partially driven by age (e.g. egg volume in birds). Taking advantage of a long-term population monitored seabird, we first assessed whether age influenced egg volume, and identified other factors driving this trait by using general linear models. Secondly, we developed and evaluated a machine learning algorithm to assess the age of breeders using measurable variables. We confirmed that both younger and older individuals performed worse (less and smaller eggs) than middle-aged individuals. Our ensemble training algorithm was only able to distinguish young individuals, but not senescent breeders. We propose to test the combined use of field monitoring, classic regression analysis and machine learning methods in other wild populations were measurable breeding parameters are partially driven by age, as a possible tool for assessing age structure in the wild., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Large-scale climatic indices are extensively used as predictors of ecological processes, but the mechanisms and the spatio-temporal scales at which climatic indices influence these processes are often speculative. Here, we use long-term data to evaluate how a measure of individual breeding investment (the egg volume) of three long-lived and long-distance-migrating seabirds is influenced by i) a large-scale climatic index (the North Atlantic Oscillation) and ii) local-scale variables (food abundance, foraging conditions, and competition). Winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation did not correlate with local-scale variables measured in spring, but surprisingly, both had a high predictive power of the temporal variability of the egg volume in the three study species, even though they have different life-history strategies. The importance of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation suggests carry-over effects of winter conditions on subsequent breeding investment. Interestingly, the most important local-scale variables measured in spring were associated with food detectability (foraging conditions) and the factors influencing its accessibility (foraging conditions and competition by density-dependence). Large-scale climatic indices may work better as predictors of foraging conditions when organisms perform long distance migrations, while local-scale variables are more appropriate when foraging areas are more restricted (e.g. during the breeding season). Contrary to what is commonly assumed, food abundance does not directly translate into food intake and its detectability and accessibility should be considered in the study of food-related ecological processes., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus) is the most threatened seabird in Europe and a member of the most speciose group of pelagic seabirds, the order Procellariiformes, which exhibit extreme adaptations to a pelagic lifestyle. The fossil record suggests that human colonisation of the Balearic Islands resulted in a sharp decrease of the Balearic shearwater population size. Currently, populations of the species continue to be decimated mainly due to predation by introduced mammals and bycatch in longline fisheries, with some studies predicting its extinction by 2070. Here, using a combination of short and long reads, we generate the first high-quality reference genome for the Balearic shearwater, with a completeness amongst the highest across available avian species. We used this reference genome to study critical aspects relevant to the conservation status of the species and to gain insights into the adaptation to a pelagic lifestyle of the order Procellariiformes. We detected relatively high levels of genome-wide heterozygosity in the Balearic shearwater despite its reduced population size. However, the reconstruction of its historical demography uncovered an abrupt population decline potentially linked to a reduction of the neritic zone during the Penultimate Glacial Period (∼194-135 ka). Comparative genomics analyses uncover a set of candidate genes that may have played an important role into the adaptation to a pelagic lifestyle of Procellariiformes, including those for the enhancement of fishing capabilities, night vision, and the development of natriuresis. The reference genome obtained will be the crucial in the future development of genetic tools in conservation efforts for this Critically Endangered species., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

In organisms such as fish, where body size is considered an important state variable for the study of their population dynamics, size-specific growth and survival rates can be influenced by local variation in both biotic and abiotic factors, but few studies have evaluated the complex relationships between environmental variability and size-dependent processes. We analysed a 6-year capture-recapture dataset of brown trout (Salmo trutta) collected at 3 neighbouring but heterogeneous mountain streams in northern Spain with the aim of investigating the factors shaping the dynamics of local populations. The influence of body size and water temperature on survival and individual growth was assessed under a multi-state modelling framework, an extension of classical capture-recapture models that considers the state (i.e. body size) of the individual in each capture occasion and allows us to obtain state-specific demographic rates and link them to continuous environmental variables. Individual survival and growth patterns varied over space and time, and evidence of size-dependent survival was found in all but the smallest stream. At this stream, the probability of reaching larger sizes was lower compared to the other wider and deeper streams. Water temperature variables performed better in the modelling of the highest-altitude population, explaining over a 99 % of the variability in maturation transitions and survival of large fish. The relationships between body size, temperature and fitness components found in this study highlight the utility of multi-state approaches to investigate small-scale demographic processes in heterogeneous environments, and to provide reliable ecological knowledge for management purposes.

Many species are found today in the form of fragmented populations occupying patches of remnant habitat in human-altered landscapes. The persistence of these population networks requires a balance between extinction and colonization events assumed to be primarily related to patch area and isolation, but the contribution of factors such as the characteristics of patch and matrix habitats, the species' traits (habitat specialization and dispersal capabilities) and variation in climatic conditions have seldom been evaluated simultaneously. The identification of environmental variables associated with patch occupancy and turnover may be especially useful to enhance the persistence of multiple species under current global change. However, for robust inference on occupancy and related parameters, we must account for detection errors, a commonly overlooked problem that leads to biased estimates and misleading conclusions about population dynamics. Here, we provide direct empirical evidence of the effects of different environmental variables on the extinction and colonization rates of a rich butterfly community in the western Mediterranean. The analysis was based on a 17-year data set containing detection/nondetection data on 73 butterfly species for 26 sites in north-eastern Spain. Using multiseason occupancy models, which take into account species' detectability, we were able to obtain robust estimates of local extinction and colonization probabilities for each species and test the potential effects of site covariates such as the area of suitable habitat, topographic variability, landscape permeability around the site and climatic variability in aridity conditions. Results revealed a general pattern across species with local habitat composition and landscape features as stronger predictors of occupancy dynamics compared with topography and local aridity. Increasing area of suitable habitat in a site strongly decreased local extinction risks and, for a number of species, both higher amounts of suitable habitat and more permeable landscapes increased colonization rates. Nevertheless, increased topographic variability decreased the extinction risk of bad dispersers, a group of species with significantly lower colonization rates. Our models predicted higher sensitivity of the butterfly assemblages to deterministic changes in habitat features rather than to stochastic weather patterns, with some relationships being clearly dependent on the species' traits., (© 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.)

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations., (© 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.)

1. Sex plays a crucial role in evolutionary life histories. However, the inclusion of sex in demographic analysis may be a challenge in fieldwork, particularly in monomorphic species. Although behavioural data may help us to sex individuals in the field, this kind of data is unlikely to be error free and is usually discarded. 2. Here we propose a multi-event capture-recapture model that enables us to exploit uncertain field observations regarding the sex of individuals based on behavioural or morphological criteria. The multi-event capture-recapture model allows us to account for sex uncertainty not restricting our ability to estimate the parameters of interest. In this case, by adding the confirmed sex of just a few individuals, we greatly improve the efficiency of the optimization algorithm. 3. Using such an approach, we analysed sex differences in demographic parameters (e.g. survival, transience and sex ratio) in a population of Audouin's gulls using observations from long-term fieldwork monitoring (1988-2007). We also assessed the probability of ascertaining sex over time and the probability of error for each field-sexing criterion. 4. We detected no strong effect of sex on either survival or transience probabilities, and both sexes showed a decreasing trend in survival over time and transience probability after recruitment increased with age and over time. The probability of ascertaining sex over time depended on observers' experience. Strikingly, courtship feeding (but not copulation) emerged as the most reliable clue for sexing individuals, which would suggest that Audouin's gulls engage in same-sex sexual behaviour such as same-sex mounting. 5. The present modelling emerged as a reliable method for estimating demographic parameters and state transition parameters in ecological studies in which field observations of sex or other individual states are assigned erroneously and uncertainly. This approach could also be useful for applied ecologists for assessing the reliability of their criteria for assigning sex or other individual covariates in the field, thereby permitting them to optimizing their field ecological protocols., (© 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.)

The frequency at which individuals breed is an important parameter in population, as well as in evolutionary, studies. However, when nonbreeding individuals are absent from the study area, the reproductive skipping is usually confounded with a recapture failure and cannot be estimated directly. Yet, there are situations in which external information may help to estimate reproductive skipping. Such a situation is found with nest-tenacious birds: the fact that an individual is not encountered in its previous nest is a good indication that it must be skipping reproduction. We illustrate here a general probabilistic framework in which we merged the classical individual capture-recapture information with nest-based information to obtain the simultaneous estimate of recapture, survival, reproductive skipping, and within-colony breeding dispersal probabilities using multi-event models. We applied this approach to Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a long-lived burrow-nesting seabird. By comparing results with those obtained from the analysis of the capture-recapture information alone, we showed that the model separates successfully the probabilities of recapture from those of temporal emigration. We found that the probabilities of future reproduction and breeding-site fidelity were lower for individuals temporarily absent from the colony, suggesting a lower intrinsic quality of intermittent breeders. The new probabilistic framework presented here allowed us to refine the estimates of demographic parameters by simply adding nest-based data, a type of information usually collected in the field but never included in the analysis of individual-based data. Our approach also provides a new and flexible way to test hypotheses on temporal emigration and breeding dispersal in longitudinal data.

Theoretical investigations of competitive dynamics have noted that numbers of predator and prey influence each other. However, few empirical studies have demonstrated how a life-history trait of the prey (such as fecundity) can be affected simultaneously by its own density and the density of predators. For instance, density dependence can reduce fecundity with increasing number of prey, while inverse density dependence or Allee effects may occur especially when the prey is a social organism. Here we analysed an intraguild predator-prey system of two seabird species at a large spatio-temporal scale. As expected, we found that fecundity of prey was negatively affected by predator density. Nevertheless, fecundity of prey also increased nonlinearly with its own density and strikingly with the prey-predator ratio. Small groups of prey were probably not able to defend their nests especially against large number of predators. At the highest prey densities (i.e. when anti-predator strategies should be most efficient), prey fecundity also lowered, suggesting the appearance of density dependence mediated by food competition. Allee effects and density dependence occurred across a broad range of population sizes of both the prey and the predator at several local populations facing different ecological environments.