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Objectives: To describe response rates and call characteristics using random digit dialling (RDD) methods in a population-based prevalence study of chronic pain; to compare respondent characteristics according to telephone number listing status. Methods: A RDD telephone study of chronic pain was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) methods in the Northern Sydney Area in 1998. Results: Unlisted number respondents (18.5%) were younger, had a higher proportion of males, and were less likely to live in households with three or more eligible adults. There was no difference in chronic pain status between the two groups. The overall response rate was 73.4% (unlisted number group 66.3%; listed number group 75.0%). Answering machine messages boosted response rates (79.7%). 10.9% of unlisted numbers used in the study resulted in completed interviews, compared with 31.3% of the listed numbers used. Conclusions: The relatively high response rate obtained, differences in characteristics associated with listing status and reduction in sampling bias provided by using RDD methods have to be balanced against the differential response rates between listed and unlisted number groups and higher costs (including opportunity costs). Implications: Published data on the experience of using RDD methods can assist public health researchers in deciding whether to use these methods in telephone surveys.

Summary Lower limb pain is an important determinant of locomotor disability. Recurrent episodes of pain may have a cumulative effect on functional decline in later life., Locomotor disability (LMD) is common at older ages, and can lead to other significant disability and mortality. Prevalent pain has been shown to be associated with LMD. This article aimed to assess the association between changes in lower limb pain status (ascertained from a manikin) and changes in the level of self-reported LMD in a sample of UK adults age ⩾50 years, over a 6-year period (data collected at 3-year intervals). There was an average increase in the level of LMD over 6 years. Reports of an onset of lower limb pain were associated with a relative increase in LMD, independently of sociodemographic factors and the onset of selected comorbid diseases. A dose-response relationship was observed between the onset of multiple lower limb joint involvement and more frequent or intense pain and larger increases in LMD. Becoming free from lower limb pain was associated with a relative decrease in LMD, but did not return LMD scores to the level of those who had remained pain-free throughout. This is consistent with a cumulative effect on LMD of recurrent episodes of pain. Lower limb pain may be a key target for prevention and rehabilitation to reduce years lived with disability in later life.

Objectives: To describe the clinical features, antecedents and impact of chronic pain. Design: Telephone survey of randomly selected household respondents. Setting: Northern Sydney Health Area, metropolitan Sydney, July to September 1998. Participants: 2092 English-speaking residents aged 18 years or over. Main outcome measures: Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of chronic pain (pain experienced every day for 3 months in the previous 6 months), pain-related disability, and use of health services and analgesic medications. Results: Chronic pain affected 474/2092 respondents (22.1%; 95% Cl, 20.2%-24.0%), with high levels of pain-related disability in 129/439 (27%). Nominated causes of chronic pain were injury in 173 (38%), most commonly sports injury (54; 13%), and a health problem in 132 (29%). Pain was work-related in 62 (14%). A musculoskeletal condition was the leading diagnosis (127; 26%). Of the 474 with chronic pain, 374 (78%) had consulted at least one health practitioner for pain in the previous 6 months, comprising medical practitioners (consulted by 292 [60%] and including general practitioners [55%]), allied health professionals (245; 50%), and alternative practitioners (99; 21%). Current or recent use of oral analgesic medications (often over-the-counter preparations) was common (339; 70%). Higher levels of pain-related disability were associated with greater use of medications and health services. Conclusions: Our study shows that chronic pain is common and often results from injury. It highlights the importance of timely interventions to prevent progression from acute to chronic pain and the need for a coordinated approach to managing pain-related disability.

Introduction: Low back pain (LBP) is the leading cause of disability worldwide. Of those patients who present to primary care with acute LBP, 40% continue to report symptoms 3 months later and develop chronic LBP. Although it is possible to identify these patients early, effective interventions to improve their outcomes are not available. This double-blind (participant/outcome assessor) randomised controlled trial will investigate the efficacy of a brief educational approach to prevent chronic LBP in ‘at-risk’ individuals. Methods/analysis: Participants will be recruited from primary care practices in the Sydney metropolitan area. To be eligible for inclusion participants will be aged 18– 75 years, with acute LBP (

We would like to thank William B Grant for his letter1 on our paper ‘The global burden of low back pain: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study’.2 We fully agree with Professor …

Leani Souza Máximo Pereira,1,2 Catherine Sherrington,2,3 Manuela L Ferreira,2 Anne Tiedemann,2,3 Paulo H Ferreira,4 Fiona M Blyth,5 Jacqueline CT Close,3,6 Morag Taylor,3,6 Stephen R Lord3 1Department of Physiotherapy, School of Physical Education, Physiotherapy, and Occupational Therapy, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; 2Musculoskeletal Division, The George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; 3Neuroscience Research Australia, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; 4Discipline of Physiotherapy, Faculty of Health Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; 5Pain Management and Research Institute, Royal North Shore Hospital, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; 6Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Background/objectives: The impact of pain on the physical performance of patients in aged care rehabilitation is not known. The study sought to assess 1) the prevalence of pain in older people being discharged from inpatient rehabilitation; 2) the association between self-reported pain and physical performance in people being discharged from inpatient rehabilitation; and 3) the association between self-reported pain and physical performance in this population, after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Methods: This was an observational cross-sectional study of 420 older people at two inpatient aged care rehabilitation units. Physical performance was assessed using the Lower Limb Summary Performance Score. Pain was assessed with questions about the extent to which participants were troubled by pain, the duration of symptoms, and the impact of chronic pain on everyday activity. Depression and the number of comorbidities were assessed by questionnaire and medical file audit. Cognition was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination. Results: Thirty percent of participants reported chronic pain (pain lasting more than 3 months), and 17% reported that this pain interfered with daily activities to a moderate or greater extent. Chronic pain (P=0.013) and chronic pain affecting daily activities (P

Background In the original Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 1990, there was minimal involvement of clinical experts. By contrast, it was a key focus for GBD Study 2010 to explicitly engage a large and diverse group of experts. From the outset, the extent of the work involved from both the expert groups and the core team was a big unknown. Our aim is to reflect on the experiences of the Musculoskeletal Disorders and Risk Factors Expert Group (MSK EG), led by Professor Lyn March at University of Sydney, and to make constructive suggestions to the Core Team for future studies. Methods Synthesis of issues documented and discussed by MSK EG through the course of GBD 2010. Findings EG advice was critical for the accurate collection and interpretation of data. There were active problems throughout the process, notably in the following areas: (1) significant heterogeneity in the quality of epidemiological data available to be included in the systematic reviews; (2) timely interaction and due consultation by the Core Team with EGs relating to (a) ongoing changes to key aspects of the methodology and modelling and (b) finalisation and interpretation of results; and (3) project support for the EGs. Interpretation Our main suggestions are (1) to expand data collection, improve data quality, and strengthen methodology by (a) publication of guidelines for population-based studies to provide information in a more standardised format, and (b) forward engagement with end users of GBD and data collection agencies at a national level by the Core Team to facilitate the activities linked to gathering and collating the GBD data; (2) for EGs to continue to play an integral part of any future studies, and for the communication between the Core Team and EGs over data matters, methodology, and interpretation of results to be improved; and (3) to put in place, by the Core Team, a funding mechanism to provide adequate support to EGs throughout the course of the study. Funding Australian Commonwealth Government, the Institute of Bone and Joint Research (IBJR) at the University of Sydney, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background There is a lack of evidence on the contribution of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to institutionalization in older adults. This study aimed to evaluate a range of risk factors including MCI of institutionalization in older men. Methods Men aged ≥70 years (n = 1705), participating in the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project, Sydney, Australia were studied. Participants completed self-reported questionnaires and underwent comprehensive clinical assessments during 2005–2007. Institutionalization was defined as entry into a nursing home facility or hostel at any time over an average of 5 years of follow-up. Cox regression analysis was conducted to generate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results A total of 125 (7.3%) participants were institutionalized. Piecewise Cox proportional models were generated and divided at 3.4 years (1250 days) of follow-up due to violation of the proportional hazards assumption for the association between MCI and institutionalization (χ2 = 6.44, p = 0.01). Dementia, disability in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), poor grip strength, few social interactions, being a Non-English speaking immigrant and age were predictive of institutionalization during both time periods, whereas MCI (HR = 4.39, 95%CI 2.17–8.87) only predicted institutionalization in the period beyond 3.4 years of follow-up. Being married (HR = 0.42, 95%CI: 0.24–0.72) was protective only during the period after 3.4 years of follow-up. Discussion In this study, the strongest predictors of institutionalization were dementia, MCI, ADL and IADL disability. MCI was not a predictor of early institutionalization but became a significant predictor beyond 3.4 years of follow-up.

Background Most research on risk factors for low back pain has focused on long term exposures rather than factors immediately preceding the onset of low back pain. The aim of this study is to quantify the transient increase in risk of a sudden episode of low back pain associated with acute exposure to a range of common physical and psychological factors. Methods/design This study uses a case-crossover design. One thousand adults with a sudden onset of low back pain presenting to primary care clinicians will be recruited. Basic demographic and clinical information including exposure to putative triggers will be collected using a questionnaire. These triggers include exposure to hazardous manual tasks, physical activity, a slip/trip or fall, consumption of alcohol, sexual activity, being distracted, and being fatigued or tired. Exposures in the case window (0-2 hours from the time when participants first notice their back pain) will be compared to exposures in two control time-windows (one 24-26 hours and another 48-50 hours before the case window). Discussion The completion of this study will provide the first-research based estimates of the increase in risk of a sudden episode of acute low back pain associated with transient exposure to a range of common factors thought to trigger low back pain.

Objective To determine the speed at which the Grim Reaper (or Death) walks. Design Population based prospective study. Setting Older community dwelling men living in Sydney, Australia. Participants 1705 men aged 70 or more participating in CHAMP (Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project). Main outcome measures Walking speed (m/s) and mortality. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve for walking speed and determine the walking speed of the Grim Reaper. The optimal walking speed was estimated using the Youden index (sensitivity+specificity−1), a common summary measure of the receiver operating characteristics curve, and represents the maximum potential effectiveness of a marker. Results The mean walking speed was 0.88 (range 0.15-1.60) m/s. The highest Youden index (0.293) was observed at a walking speed of 0.82 m/s (2 miles (about 3 km) per hour), corresponding to a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 70% for mortality. Survival analysis showed that older men who walked faster than 0.82 m/s were 1.23 times less likely to die (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.37) than those who walked slower (P=0.0003). A sensitivity of 1.0 was obtained when a walking speed of 1.36 m/s (3 miles (about 5 km) per hour) or greater was used, indicating that no men with walking speeds of 1.36 m/s or greater had contact with Death. Conclusion The Grim Reaper’s preferred walking speed is 0.82 m/s (2 miles (about 3 km) per hour) under working conditions. As none of the men in the study with walking speeds of 1.36 m/s (3 miles (about 5 km) per hour) or greater had contact with Death, this seems to be the Grim Reaper’s most likely maximum speed; for those wishing to avoid their allotted fate, this would be the advised walking speed.

Objective To investigate whether changes in maternal and birth characteristics explain the increase in the use of epidural analgesia during labor. Methods Using data from a statewide surveillance system of all births, the study included 857 667 women who labored at term between 1992 and 2003 in New South Wales, Australia. Annual rates of epidural analgesia use were calculated. Logistic regression models were used to predict epidural analgesia rates over time, and were compared with observed rates. Results Epidural analgesia use increased from 17.2% in 1992 to 26.5% in 2003. The increase in the proportion of women with factors associated with epidural analgesia use explained almost half of the increase in rate. After controlling for these factors, the odds of a woman receiving epidural analgesia in 2003 compared with 1992 were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.38–1.46). Conclusion Changes in maternal or birth characteristics partially explain the increase in epidural analgesia rate. The unexplained increase may be due to increased availability or other factors.

Background High risk prescribing can compromise independent wellbeing and quality of life in older adults. The aims of this project are to determine the prevalence, risk factors, clinical consequences, and costs of high risk prescribing, and to assess the impact of interventions on high risk prescribing in older people. Methods The proposed project will utilise data from the 45 and Up Study, a large scale cohort of 267,153 men and women aged 45 and over recruited during 2006–2009 from the state of New South Wales, Australia linked to a range of administrative health datasets. High risk prescribing will be assessed using three indicators: polypharmacy (use of five or more medicines); Beers Criteria (an explicit measure of potentially inappropriate medication use); and Drug Burden Index (a pharmacologic dose-dependent measure of cumulative exposure to anticholinergic and sedative medicines). Individual risk factors from the 45 and Up Study questionnaire, and health system characteristics from health datasets that are associated with the likelihood of high risk prescribing will be identified. The main outcome measures will include hospitalisation (first admission to hospital, total days in hospital, cause-specific hospitalisation); admission to institutionalised care; all-cause mortality, and, where possible, cause-specific mortality. Economic costs to the health care system and implications of high risk prescribing will be also investigated. In addition, changes in high risk prescribing will be evaluated in relation to certain routine medicines-related interventions. The statistical analysis will be conducted using standard pharmaco-epidemiological methods including descriptive analysis, univariate and multivariate regression analysis, controlling for relevant confounding factors, using a number of different approaches. Discussion The availability of large-scale data is useful to identify opportunities for improving prescribing, and health in older adults. The size of the 45 and Up Study, along with linkage to health databases provides an important opportunity to investigate the relationship between high risk prescribing and adverse outcomes in a real-world population of older adults.

International audience; BACKGROUND: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2*503 billion) to 2010 (2*490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the hospital burden and health outcomes associated with admission for congestive heart failure (CHF). DESIGN AND SETTING: Descriptive follow-up study in a tertiary-level metropolitan teaching hospital. PATIENTS: Acute adult inpatients with a clinical diagnosis of CHF for more than 24 hours admitted to Westmead Hospital, Sydney, during the four months from September 1993 to January 1994. At baseline, 122 patients were assessed; 88 patients were assessed at four-month follow-up. INTERVENTIONS: Usual clinical care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Length of stay; hospital bed-days; readmissions; mortality; health related quality of life (SF-36); patient knowledge. RESULTS: The average age of subjects was 73.4 years. Many were using informal domiciliary care before admission. Mean length of stay for the baseline admission was 13.8 days, accounting for 7.6% of hospital separations and 1683 hospital bed-days, or 4.2% of bed-days for all inpatients aged 65 years and over. Fifteen patients were readmitted for CHF during the following four months, with a total of 26 CHF-related admissions. Twenty-one patients (17.2%) died during the course of the study. Quality of life at baseline was poor compared with population normative data, with a slight improvement among survivors at four-month follow-up. Patient knowledge of CHF was poor in a subsample survey (n = 24). CONCLUSIONS: CHF represents a significant burden to patients (through morbidity and mortality), their carers (through provision of daily care), and hospitals (through multiple admissions for acute decompensation). It is difficult to monitor the hospital burden of CHF using routine data sources.

Body mass index (BMI) has been recommended for use in adolescent screening programs to select subjects with excess body fat for appropriate interventions. No systematic evaluation of MBI in screening for high degrees of adiposity was available when these recommendations were formulated. The purpose of this paper was to evaluated the screening performance of BMI using appropriate epidemiologic methods. Percentage body fat (TBF%) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry DXA) in a convenience sample of 230 (119 males, 111 females) health Australian volunteers aged 4-20 y inclusive. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were prepared for detecting TBF% at or beyond the 85th percentile, using BMI as the screening test. Screening performance was slightly better for girls than for boys, but the differences were not significant. Reasonable true-positive (0.71, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.85) and low false-positive (0.05, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.09) rates were observed at the 85th percentile cutpoint for BMI. At the 95th percentile cutpoint for BMI, both true-positive (0.29, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.47) and false-positive (0.01, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.03) rates were lower. Screening for excess adiposity by using an appropriate percentile cutoff for BMI gives acceptable performance. ROC curves facilitate design of screening programs by allowing an explicit tradeoff between true-positive and false-positive rates. Although large sample sizes are required for precise estimates, the cutoff points that have been recommended appear to offer a reasonable compromise between true-and false-positive rates.