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316. Security in the Age of Systemic Risk: Strategies, Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond

Author

Frank, A.B., Goud Collins, M., Clegg, M., Dieckmann, U., Kremenyuk, V.A., Kryazhimskiy, A.V., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Levin, S.A., Lo, A., Ramalingam, B., Ramo, J., Roy, S., Saari, D., Shtauber, Z., Sigmund, K., Tepperman, J., Thurner, S., Yiwei, W., and von Winterfeldt, D.

Abstract

The world today is increasingly confronted with systemic threats and challenges, in which femtorisks - small-scale dangers that are inherent to system structures and function and which pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks - can build in consequence, spreading uncontrollably like epidemics in both natural and social systems in such diverse areas as ecology, epidemiology, finance, the Internet, terrorism, and international relations. They have been successfully modeled in ecology in the context of complex adaptive systems: systems made up of individual agents, whose interactions have macroscopic consequences that feed back to influence individual behavior. While acknowledging challenges, this paper argues for the value of applying to societal systems the approaches that natural scientists have developed in quantifying and modeling biological interactions and ecosystems.

Published
2012

317. Deprivations and Inequalities in Multiple Dimensions: Poverty and Disaster Risk Management

Author

Linnerooth-Bayer, J.

Abstract

This talk highlights the potential role of social and governance institutions as they operate synergistically with the human, natural and physical domains in reducing human deprivation and inequality. The value of a multiple-perspective approach is especially apparent in the context of extreme weather shocks as they contribute to “poverty traps” and increasing inequality. As an example of a social institution, we focus on the potential role of novel risk sharing and transfer arrangements, and especially index-based micro-insurance, for providing safety nets to marginal farmers facing drought risk. As promising as recent pilot projects are proving, we argue that, taken alone, they cannot provide a robust and sustainable option for reducing deprivation caused by weather variability. Their success is dependent on, among other dimensions, physical infrastructure, environmental quality, knowledge and education, and trusted and reliable social institutions. Success is also dependent on including multiple perspectives in the policy process, and we conclude with thoughts on governance arrangements that can foster an integrated and multiple-perspective approach to reducing deprivation and inequality.

Published
2012

318. Überlebensrate und neurologisches Outcome nach präklinischer Reanimation bei Traumapatienten – Ein systematisches Review

Author

Zwingmann, J, Mehlhorn, A, Hammer, T, Bayer, J, Schmal, H, Südkamp, NP, and Strohm, P

Subjects
ddc: 610, präklinische Reanimation, Polytrauma, 610 Medical sciences, Medicine, neurologisches Outcome, Letalität
Abstract

Fragestellung: Die präklinische Reanimation von Traumapatienten ist mit einer äußerst schlechten Prognose assoziiert. Dieses systematische Review evaluiert die best verfügbare Evidenz der Letalität und das neurologische Outcome von Traumapatienten, welche nach präklinischer[for full text, please go to the a.m. URL], Deutscher Kongress für Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie (DKOU 2012)

Published
2012
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319. The JEM-EUSO Mission: Status and Prospects in 2011

Author

Jem-Euso, The Collaboration, Adams, J. H., Ahmad, S., Albert, J. -N, Allard, D., Ambrosio, M., Anchordoqui, L., Anna Anzalone, Arai, Y., Aramo, C., Asano, K., Barrillon, P., Batsch, T., Bayer, J., Belenguer, T., Bellotti, R., Berlind, A. A., Bertaina, M., Biermann, P. L., Biktemerova, S., Blaksley, C., Blecki, J., Blin-Bondil, S., Bluemer, J., Bobik, P., Bogomilov, M., Bonamente, M., Briggs, M. S., Briz, S., Bruno, A., Cafagna, F., Campana, D., Capdevielle, J-N, Caruso, R., Casolino, M., Cassardo, C., Castellini, G., Catalano, O., Cellino, A., Chikawa, M., Christl, M. J., Connaughton, V., Cortes, J. F., Crawford, H. J., Cremonini, R., Csorna, S., D Olivo, J. C., Dagoret-Campagne, S., Castro, A. J., Donato, C., La Taille, C., Pascale, M. P., Del Peral, L., Oro, A., Di Martino, M., Distrati, G., Dupieux, M., Ebersoldt, A., Ebisuzaki, T., Engel, R., Falk, S., Fang, K., Fenu, F., Ferrarese, S., Fernandez-Gomez, I., Franceschi, A., Fujimoto, J., Galeotti, P., Garipov, G., Geary, J., Giaccari, U. G., Giraudo, G., Gonchar, M., Gonzalez Alvarado, C., Gorodetzky, P., Guarino, F., Guzman, A., Hachisu, Y., Harlov, B., Haungs, A., Hernandez Carretero, J., Higashide, K., Iguchi, T., Ikeda, H., Inoue, N., Inoue, S., Insolia, A., Isgro, F., Itow, Y., Joven, E., Judd, E. G., Jung, A., Kajino, F., Kajino, T., Kaneko, I., Karadzhov, Y., Karczmarczyk, J., Katahira, K., Kawai, K., Kawasaki, Y., Keilhauer, B., Khrenov, B. A., Kim, Jeong-Sook, Kim, Soon-Wook, Kim, Sug-Whan, Kleifges, M., Klimov, P. A., Ko, S. H., Kolev, D., Kreykenbohm, I., Kudela, K., Kurihara, Y., Kuznetsov, E., La Rosa, G., Lee, J., Licandro, J., Lim, H., Lopez, F., Maccarone, M. C., Marcelli, L., Marini, A., Martin-Chassard, G., Martinez, O., Masciantonio, G., Mase, K., Matev, R., Maurissen, A., Medina-Tanco, G., Mernik, T., Miyamoto, H., Miyazaki, Y., Mizumoto, Y., Modestino, G., Monnier-Ragaigne, D., Morales Los Rıos, J. A., Mot, B., Murakami, T., Nagano, M., Nagata, M., Nagataki, S., Nam, J. W., Nam, S., Nam, K., Napolitano, T., Naumov, D., Neronov, A., Nomoto, K., Ogawa, T., Ohmori, H., Olinto, A. V., Orleanski, P., Osteria, G., Pacheco, N., Panasyuk, M. I., Parizot, E., Park, I. H., Pastircak, B., Patzak, T., Paul, T., Pennypacker, C., Peter, T., Picozza, P., Pollini, A., Prieto, H., Reardon, P., Reina, M., Reyes, M., Ricci, M., Rodrıguez, I., Rodrıguez Frıas, M. D., Ronga, F., Rothkaehl, H., Roudil, G., Rusinov, I., Rybczynski, M., Sabau, M. D., Saez Cano, G., Saito, A., Sakaki, N., Sakata, M., Salazar, H., Sanchez, S., Santangelo, A., Santiago Cruz, L., Sanz Palomino, M., Saprykin, O., Sarazin, F., Sato, H., Sato, M., Schanz, T., Schieler, H., Scotti, V., Scuderi, M., Segreto, A., Selmane, S., Semikoz, D., Serra, M., Sharakin, S., Shibata, T., Shimizu, H. M., Shinozaki, K., Shirahama, T., Siemieniec-Ozieblo, G., Silva Lopez, H. H., Sledd, J., Slominska, K., Sobey, A., Sugiyama, T., Supanitsky, D., Suzuki, M., Szabelska, B., Szabelski, J., Tajima, F., Tajima, N., Tajima, T., Takami, H., Nakamura, T., Takeda, M., Takahashi, Y., Takizawa, Y., Tenzer, C., Tkachev, L., Tomida, T., Tone, N., Trillaud, F., Tsenov, R., Tsuno, K., Tymieniecka, T., Uchihori, Y., Vaduvescu, O., Valdes-Galicia, J. F., Vallania, P., Valore, L., Vankova, G., Vigorito, C., Villasenor, L., Ballmoos, P., Wada, S., Watanabe, J., Watanabe, S., Watts, J., Weber, M., Weiler, T. J., Wibig, T., Wiencke, L., Wille, M., Wilms, J., Wlodarczyk, Z., Yamamoto, T., Yamamoto, Y., Yang, J., Yano, H., Yashin, I. V., Yonetoku, D., Yoshida, K., Yoshida, S., Young, R., Zamora, A., Zuccaro Marchi, A., JEM-EUSO, Laboratoire de l'Accélérateur Linéaire (LAL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11), APC - Astrophysique des Hautes Energies (APC - AHE), AstroParticule et Cosmologie (APC (UMR_7164)), Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Dipartimento di Astronomia, Universita degli Studi di Bologna, Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO)-Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3), APC - Neutrinos, Laboratoire de Physique Nucléaire et de Hautes Énergies (LPNHE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-AstroParticule et Cosmologie (APC (UMR_7164)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), APC - THEORIE, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Institut für theoretische Physik, Universität Hamburg (UHH)-Universität Hamburg (UHH), Institut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie (IRAP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University (PSL)-PSL Research University (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University (PSL)-PSL Research University (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Dipartimento di Astronomia, Universita degli Studi di Bologna, Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO)-Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), PSL Research University (PSL)-PSL Research University (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-AstroParticule et Cosmologie (APC (UMR_7164)), PSL Research University (PSL)-PSL Research University (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University (PSL)-PSL Research University (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut für theoretische Physik, Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Observatoire de Paris, and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut für theoretische Physik

Subjects
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena (astro-ph.HE), [PHYS.ASTR.HE]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena [astro-ph.HE], [PHYS.ASTR.IM]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysic [astro-ph.IM], [SDU.ASTR.HE]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena [astro-ph.HE], [PHYS.HEXP]Physics [physics]/High Energy Physics - Experiment [hep-ex], FOS: Physical sciences, Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics, Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM), [SDU.ASTR.IM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysic [astro-ph.IM]
Abstract

Contributions of the JEM-EUSO Collaboration to the 32nd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Beijing, August, 2011., Comment: 33 contributions plus index

Published
2011

320. Insurance against losses from natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence, gaps and the way forward

Author

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., and Hochrainer-Stigler, S.

Abstract

This paper examines recent experience with insurance and other risk-financing instruments in developing countries, informed by experience in developed countries, to provide insights on the effectiveness of insurance for reducing economic insecurity. Insurance and other risk financing strategies are viewed in the overall context of risk management, including the prevention of losses as well as financing the recovery process through risk pooling and transfer strategies. Specific examples of public-private insurance programs for households/businesses, farms and governments are described, including their limitations, especially in light of recent post-Katrina experience in the US. By examining the costs, benefits and risks of public-private risk-financing programs, insights are provided on the effectiveness of insurance as a mechanism for providing economic security to vulnerable communities and governments.

Published
2011

321. Lassen sich morphologische Traumafolgen in der CT Diagnostik des milden Schädelhirntraumas (MTBI) anhand klinischer Parameter voraussagen?

Author

Hammer, TO, Schneider, K, Bayer, J, Schmal, H, Südkamp, NP, and Strohm, P

Subjects
ddc: 610, 610 Medical sciences, Medicine
Abstract

Fragestellung: Das Krankheitsbild der MTBI ist bezogen auf die Inzidenz in deutschen Notaufnahmen sehr häufig. Eine Vielzahl von Behandlungsrichtlinien versucht dieser Realität Rechnung zu tragen, jedoch existieren keine interdisziplinär akzeptierten Definitionen und Diagnoserichtlini[for full text, please go to the a.m. URL], Deutscher Kongress für Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie; 75. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie, 97. Tagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Orthopädie und Orthopädische Chirurgie, 52. Tagung des Berufsverbandes der Fachärzte für Orthopädie

Published
2011
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322. Die Therapie der Femurschaftfrakturen im Kindesalter

Author

Kuminack, K., Bayer, J., Reising, K., Südkamp, N. P., and Strohm, P.

Subjects
ddc: 610, 610 Medical sciences, Medicine
Abstract

Fragestellung: Bis heute gilt die konservative Therapie der Femurschaftfrakturen als die Methode der Wahl für Patienten im Kleinkindalter. Bei Kindern älter als 4 Jahre hat sich die operative Versorgung mittels elastischer stabiler intramedullärer Nagelung (ESIN) etabliert. Wir glauben,[for full text, please go to the a.m. URL], Deutscher Kongress für Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie; 74. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie, 96. Tagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Orthopädie und Orthopädische Chirurgie, 51. Tagung des Berufsverbandes der Fachärzte für Orthopädie

Published
2010
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324. Reduktion der Strahlendosis für Polytraumatisierte im Ganzkörper-CT durch optimierte Lagerung

Author

Bayer, J, Hammer, T, Zwingmann, J, Pache, G, Südkamp, NP, and Strohm, P

Subjects
ddc: 610, 610 Medical sciences, Medicine
Abstract

Fragestellung: Die Ganzkörper-Spiralcomputertomographie in der Diagnostik des Polytraumas hat sich inzwischen als Standard bewährt. In der Weltliteratur gibt es zwar verschiedene Empfehlungen zur Lagerung während dieser Untersuchung jedoch keine verlässlichen Daten. Ziel unserer [for full text, please go to the a.m. URL], Deutscher Kongress für Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie; 74. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie, 96. Tagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Orthopädie und Orthopädische Chirurgie, 51. Tagung des Berufsverbandes der Fachärzte für Orthopädie

Published
2010
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326. A cluster randomised controlled trial of a brief couple-focused psychoeducational intervention to prevent common postnatal mental disorders among women: study protocol

Author

Rowe, H, Wynter, K, Lorgelly, P, Amir, LH, Ranasinha, S, Proimos, J, Cann, W, Hiscock, H, Bayer, J, Burns, J, Ride, J, Bobevski, I, Fisher, J, Rowe, H, Wynter, K, Lorgelly, P, Amir, LH, Ranasinha, S, Proimos, J, Cann, W, Hiscock, H, Bayer, J, Burns, J, Ride, J, Bobevski, I, and Fisher, J

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Postnatal common mental disorders among women are an important public health problem internationally. Interventions to prevent postnatal depression have had limited success. What Were We Thinking (WWWT) is a structured, gender-informed, psychoeducational group programme for parents and their first infant that addresses two modifiable risks to postnatal mental health. This paper describes the protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial to test the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of WWWT when implemented in usual primary care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: 48 maternal and child health (MCH) centres from six diverse Local Government Areas, in Victoria, Australia are randomly allocated to the intervention group (usual care plus WWWT) or the control group (usual care). The required sample size is 184 women in each group. English-speaking primiparous women receiving postpartum healthcare in participating MCH centres complete two computer-assisted telephone interviews: baseline at 4 weeks and outcome at 6 months postpartum. Women attending intervention MCH centres are invited to attend WWWT in addition to usual care. The primary outcome is meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual-IV (DSM-IV) diagnostic criteria for major depressive episode; generalised anxiety disorder; panic disorder with or without agoraphobia, agoraphobia with or without panic, social phobia, adult separation anxiety or adjustment disorder with depressed mood, anxiety or mixed depressed mood and anxiety within the past 30 days at 6 months postpartum. Secondary outcomes are self-rated general and emotional health, infant sleep problems, method of infant feeding, quality of mother-infant relationship and intimate partner relationship, and healthcare costs and outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approval to conduct the study has been granted. A comprehensive dissemination plan has been devised. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613

Published
2014

327. Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes

Author

Mechler, R., Bouwer, L.M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Surminski, S., Williges, K., Mechler, R., Bouwer, L.M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Surminski, S., and Williges, K.

Abstract

Truly understanding climate-related disaster risk, and the management of that risk, can inform effective action on climate adaptation and the loss and damage mechanism, the main vehicle under the UN Climate Convention for dealing with climate-related effects, including residual impacts after adaptation.

Published
2014

328. Drivers of transformative change in the Italian landslide risk policy

Author

Scolobig, A., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Pelling, M., Scolobig, A., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., and Pelling, M.

Abstract

In the face of needed transformation of disaster policy towards more pro-active investments in prevention and preparedness, we discuss the factors contributing to or driving disaster policy change. Building on policy learning and change theory, the research focuses on the relationship between widely publicized catastrophic events, advocacy coalitions that promote new policy initiatives, and other contextual factors driving change. We demonstrate the complex interaction of transformative changes and context by analyzing the history of Italian landslide risk policy, including the policy process, legal and institutional landscapes, scientific innovation and major hydro-geological disasters. A desk study is combined with 18 semi-structured interviews with expert informants and stakeholders at the national level. Two historical examples, the 1966 Florence flood (influencing landslide policy) and the 1998 Sarno landslide, show how catastrophic disasters can open a policy window; but events, alone, are not sufficient for driving major reforms. In these examples, disaster events were coupled with strong advocacy coalitions that promoted policy change. Some disciplinary coalitions proved to be particularly successful in influencing policy paths, especially if they belonged to long established and organized groups (e.g. hydrologists as opposed to geophysicists). Also, the capability to provide models and scenarios, e.g. due to more reliable forecasts for floods than landslides, influenced the capacity of certain coalitions to push their ideas forward. The study reveals the critical need to proactively promote exchanges between scientists and policy-makers in order to better formulate and implement needed changes in disaster policy.

Published
2014

329. Dealing with femtorisks in international relations

Author

Frank, A.B., Goud Collins, M., Levin, S.A., Lo, A.W., Ramo, J., Dieckmann, U., Kremenyuk, V., Kryazhimskiy, A.V., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Ramalingam, B., Roy, J.S., Saari, D.G., Thurner, S., von Winterfeldt, D., Frank, A.B., Goud Collins, M., Levin, S.A., Lo, A.W., Ramo, J., Dieckmann, U., Kremenyuk, V., Kryazhimskiy, A.V., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Ramalingam, B., Roy, J.S., Saari, D.G., Thurner, S., and von Winterfeldt, D.

Abstract

The contemporary global community is increasingly interdependent and confronted with systemic risks posed by the actions and interactions of actors existing beneath the level of formal institutions, often operating outside effective governance structures. Frequently, these actors are human agents, such as rogue traders or aggressive financial innovators, terrorists, groups of dissidents, or unauthorized sources of sensitive or secret information about government or private sector activities. In other instances, influential .actors. take the form of climate change, communications technologies, or socioeconomic globalization. Although these individual forces may be small relative to state governments or international institutions, or may operate on long time scales, the changes they catalyze can pose significant challenges to the analysis and practice of international relations through the operation of complex feedbacks and interactions of individual agents and interconnected systems. We call these challenges "femtorisks," and emphasize their importance for two reasons. First, in isolation, they may be inconsequential and semiautonomous; but when embedded in complex adaptive systems, characterized by individual agents able to change, learn from experience, and pursue their own agendas, the strategic interaction between actors can propel systems down paths of increasing, even global, instability. Second, because their influence stems from complex interactions at interfaces of multiple systems (e.g., social, financial, political, technological, ecological, etc.), femtorisks challenge standard approaches to risk assessment, as higher-order consequences cascade across the boundaries of socially constructed complex systems. We argue that new approaches to assessing and managing systemic risk in international relations are required, inspired by principles of evolutionary theory and development of resilient ecological systems.

Published
2014

330. Common protocol for data collection and recording to ensure comparability across pilot projects of the quantified indicators

Author

Komendantova, N., Bayer, J., Patt, A., Komendantova, N., Bayer, J., and Patt, A.

Abstract

In addition to producing results in the form of more effective discourse and ultimately, greater public acceptance, the pilot projects will generate a great deal of information. It is essential that this information will be collected in a standardised format across the four pilot projects, in order that the data generated be of a comparable form and quality. IIASA has draft a common data protocol based on iterative discussions with other consortium partners.

Published
2014

331. Methodological and theoretical framework mapping commonalities and differences of separate pilot study action plans onto a common framework of actions and guiding principles

Author

Komendantova, N., Bayer, J., Patt, A., Komendantova, N., Bayer, J., and Patt, A.

Abstract

The individual action plans from the pilot projects differ across project partners for a variety of locally specific reasons. In order to later compare the results from the different pilot projects, it is essential to have a clear understanding of the commonalities and differences across the action plans. IIASA provides this understanding by the development of a common methodological framework, categorising all of the separate actions taken in the pilot projects, and mapping each of the pilot projects onto this framework.

Published
2014

332. Climate Change and Extreme Events: What Role for Insurance?

Author

Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Bals, C., and Mechler, R.

Abstract

Experts expect climate change to affect not just average temperature, but also weather variability and extreme weather events. The effects, including economic and human losses, impose a disproportionate burden on vulnerable developing countries. How can insurance, including public-private arrangements with international support, play a role in helping vulnerable countries adapt? This Policy Brief offers practical guidance to policymakers shaping the post-Copenhagen adaptation strategy.

Published
2009

333. Uncertainty and Disaster Risk Management: Modeling the Flash Flood Risk to Vienna and Its Subway System

Author

Compton, K.L., Faber, R., Ermolieva, T.Y., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., and Nachtnebel, H.-P.

Abstract

This report describes an interdisciplinary approach to flood risk analysis and management that was developed by investigating flood risks in the city of Vienna, Austria. The purpose of the research was to analyze different policy paths (including both flood-prevention measures and risk-sharing financial provisions) in the presence of major uncertainties. A preliminary analysis resulted in the identification of two major methodological issues that needed to be resolved, namely: -- The concept of risk used in flood management varied subtly but significantly across the disciplines contributing to the assessment. -- Current assessment procedures did not give a full account of uncertainties and their different types. For those reasons an approach was developed that allows the analyst: (1) to integrate the different diciplinary concepts of risk within a single interdisciplinary analysis; and (2) to take into account uncertainties in a way that not only allows their many characteristics to be distinguished but is also consistent across the component disciplines. The focus of this report is the phenomenon of flash flooing of the Vienna River. Our analysis demonstrated that, in this case, the greatest damage from flash flooding was to be expected in the Vienna city subway system. The report thus describes a detailed assessment of the flood risk to the subway and of related management measures, on which research to date has been scarce. The results show that an approach based on catastrophe modeling and Monte Carlo simulation can not ony integrate the risk perspectives of the different technical disciplines contributing to this study but also provide a useful framework for comparing the characteristics of different mitigation strategies. The results of the simulations suggest alternatives for combining different mitigation measures to ensure complementarity among the characteristics of different components of an overall strategy, and thereby decrease total costs and reduce the likelihood and the uncertainties of catastrophic financial losses.

Published
2009

334. Adaptation to climate change: Linking disaster risk reduction and insurance

Author

Warner, K., Ranger, N., Surminski, S., Arnold, M., Linnnerooth-Bayer, J., Michel-Kerjan, E., Kovacs, P., Herweijer, C., Bals, C., Bouwer, L.M., Burton, I., Cutter, S., Osman Elasha, B., Höppe, P., Loster, T., Mahul, O., Mearns, R., Sokona, Y., Ward, B., and Spatial analysis & Decision Support

Published
2009

336. Development of a Catastrophe Model for Managing the Risks of Urban Flash Flooding in Vienna

Author

Compton, K.L., Faber, R., Ermolieva, T., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., and Nachtnebel, H.-P.

Abstract

This report provides a case study examining flood risks in the city of Vienna. The purpose is to illustrate an interdisciplinary approach to flood risk analysis, combining hydrological flood risk assessment and simulation modeling with the finances of flood risk management. Three scenarios were preliminarily identified for analysis: catastrophic flooding on a major European river (the Danube) that flows through Vienna; storm flooding due to failure of storm drainage systems; and flash flooding of a small tributary (the Vienna River) that flows into the Danube. Our initial efforts revealed that the Vienna River flash flooding scenario was a credible, significant, and tractable problem for analysis. The wealth of data available also made this scenario a useful test case for developing and illustrating interdisciplinary work, which is a significant aspect of the project activity. The focus of this report is, therefore, on the flash-flooding scenario. This report does not include discussion of the other scenarios, as they were not completed in an interdisciplinary fashion either because of lack of adequate data and models for all aspects of an interdisciplinary study, or because there were judged to be non-credible and therefore of limited use as an illustrative example. In the course of developing an interdisciplinary approach to examining catastrophic flood risks, we found that the concept of risk used in flood management varied subtly but significantly between the disciplines contributing to the study. An important result of this study is the integration of these different disciplinary concepts of risk within a single interdisciplinary analysis. A fuller accounting for uncertainty in a way that is consistent between the component disciplines, and the appropriate distinction between various different types of uncertainty, form a second major aspect of the study. Our primary finding is that an approach that integrates perspectives on risk characteristic of the different technical disciplines contributing to this study is feasible and that it provides a useful framework for comparing the characteristics of different mitigation strategies. The results of simulations suggest alternatives for combining different mitigation measures such that the characteristics of different components of an overall strategy complement each other to lower total costs and to reduce both the likelihood and the uncertainties of catastrophic financial losses.

Published
2008

340. PESOA Guidebook

Author

Bayer, J., Giese, C., Lehner, T., Ocampo, A., Puhlmann, F., Schnieders, A., Weiland, J., Werner, A., and Kiebusch, S.

Published
2006
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