Search

Each year the Marine Corps recruits more than 30,000 enlistees. In an effort to obtain high-quality enlistees, over 40 percent of enlistees ship to bootcamp during the June, July, August, and September trimester. In this thesis, I analyze the Marine Corps’ accession plan and the relationship between a Marine's accession trimester and time awaiting training, as well as their likelihood to re-enlist after their first term and the probability of attrition prior to completing their first term. Additionally, this study determines if enlistees from the June, July, August, and September trimester outperform enlistees from the other trimesters. I use linear regression models and graphical trend analysis to estimate the relationships. I find that June, July, August, and September enlistees have the highest mean days awaiting training. Furthermore, the phasing approach increases the time awaiting training days for the following trimester. The increase in time awaiting training appears to be negatively associated with the probability of re-enlistment. Graphical analysis suggests the June, July, August, and September enlistees did not perform better than their counterparts; however, the differences in performance measure are minor. The attrition model shows a modest negative correlation between time awaiting training and likelihood of attrition. Considering high-quality enlistees accumulate the most days, the estimated effect is logical. http://archive.org/details/bootcampaccessio1094567123 Major, United States Marine Corps Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The Fleet Scholars Education Program (FSEP), established in 2015, rewards top performers within the unrestricted line (URL) and Information Warfare (IW) communities with fully funded graduate education for up to two years at a civilian institution. For this MBA project, the author conducted a survey of the FSEP participants as of March 2020 and found that the program appears to meet its stated objective of retaining qualified and talented officers from the URL and IW communities. From the survey responses, more than half of the officers who planned to leave the Navy prior to their FSEP enrollment decided instead to continue their Navy service. Using tuition data and publicly accessible compensation information, the author generated a first estimate of the total cost of the FSEP of approximately $10 million per year when both direct and indirect costs are accounted for. To increase returns from the program, the author recommends targeting the FSEP to officers with 6–7 years of service while also making a concerted effort to utilize the degrees attained from the program. Ensign, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

In 2016, the U.S. Navy transitioned from Single Award Contract (SAC) to Multiple-Award Contract (MAC) Indefinite-Delivery–Indefinite-Quantity (IDIQ) husbanding service contracts. Recent port services pricing data suggests that some services or ports may cost more under a MAC compared to a SAC. The objective of this study is to identify whether there is a statistically significant difference in price for U.S. Navy husbanding port services and to estimate the relationship of price between these two competitive husbanding service provider (HSP) contracting strategies. A price comparison between the contract types was performed using three fixed-effects regression models. The results of the models showed a statistically significant difference in price between SAC and MAC. The model estimated that for a given port and given ship type, the average price for HSP services was less for a MAC than for a SAC. Additionally, the effect of the MAC on price changes based on the port and service category. However, the effect of contract strategy on price could be marginally under- or overstated based on the immeasurable effects of nonmonetary qualitative factors. Further research will be required to understand the true cost–benefit of MACs and the overall best value to the government. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

In this thesis, we use surveys and interviews with first-term Sailors on board U.S. naval ships to identify the factors most influential in their stay/leave decisions and how these factors vary across gender and race/ethnicity groups. Our framework of analysis is built on Frederick Herzberg’s Two-Factor Theory and Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Theory to highlight relationships between factors of diversity of leadership and peers, mentoring, and first-term retention. Our analysis finds that most underrepresented groups and females have very different experiences than non-Hispanic whites in relation to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs factors of safety and security, social needs, esteem needs and self-actualization. Of these factors, negative experiences in social needs, which encompasses mentorship, the sense of belonging, and peer support, was found to have the largest impact on retention decisions of underrepresented groups and females. Based on these findings, our recommendation is the implementation of measures and strategic directives that address and resolve the gap felt in the lack of social needs fulfillment. We believe these findings can assist Navy leadership in their continuing efforts to improve strategies and initiatives to recruit, develop, and retain a high-quality military workforce. Improved racial and gender minority retention is a vital element in cultivating workforce talent and unlocking our Navy’s full potential in better support of national defense. OPNAV N17 Lieutenant, United States Navy Reserve Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Improving diversity and inclusion is a priority for the U.S. Navy. We examine whether having more leaders and peers from minority groups has any impact on minority and non-minority enlisted and officer retention on different U.S. Navy platforms. We use longitudinal data on first-term enlisted sailors and naval officers from the Defense Manpower Data Center to estimate role model and peer causal effects on first-term reenlistment and retention on different size naval platforms. The results suggest that an increase in same-minority peers, immediate supervisors, and senior leadership on-board medium ships and submarines has statistically significant positive effects mainly on black first-term sailors. Moreover, our analysis suggests that an increase in same-minority peers has a statistically significant effect on first-term Hispanic officers and an increase in same-minority officer senior leadership has a statistically significant effect on first-term non-Hispanic and black officers, respectively. Our findings provide insights to support the U.S. Navy’s efforts to improve inclusion and diversity while maximizing talent within the Navy. http://archive.org/details/theeffectsofdive1094564941 Lieutenant, United States Navy Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis evaluates the effects of minority command leadership on the first-term reenlistment decisions of underrepresented junior enlisted sailors in the U.S. Navy. In this thesis, I build a data set for Navy enlisted personnel and officers observed from fiscal years 1995 to 2018. Using a linear probability model and an ordinary least squares regression analysis approach, I analyze the first-term retention rates for minority enlisted sailors based on different levels of exposure to minority naval command leadership. This thesis found statistically significant evidence that suggests that same-minority command leadership influences the reenlistment of minority sailors. The results also demonstrate that increased diversity leads to greater reenlistment rates among non-minorities. These findings on the influence on junior enlisted sailors suggest that the Navy could present more opportunities for minorities to assume senior leadership positions in hopes of increasing minority recruiting, retention, and diversity. Moreover, this research provides support to policy adjustments not only in the Navy, but throughout the military toward placing more underrepresented but qualified personnel in leadership positions to exploit role model effects on retention of entry-level rated enlisted personnel. In addition, insights gained from this thesis may help Navy decision-makers further develop and foster a culture of inclusion across all ranks, designators, rates, and ratings. http://archive.org/details/ananalysisofthee1094562254 Outstanding Thesis Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis will investigate the existence of racial biases in the National Basketball Association by examining the probability of African-American head coaches being separated from their assignments, conditional on several factors, for the last twenty-three regular seasons. The research is widely descriptive, and tends to determine whether racial bias has existed in the separations of African-American head coaches in the NBA. Comprehensive analysis of the most significant factors that affect the coaches’ tenure in the league is performed. Based on the estimated results, recommendations are offered on current policies to continue reducing any racial bias in the NBA, to not only emphasize the current situation, but to create additional and specific bases for future studies. http://archive.org/details/theexistenceofra1094562246 Colonel, Georgian Ground Forces Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines how Minority Commanding Officers and Minority Senior Leadership (O4–O6) affect the retention of Junior Officers who are the same minority. The initial hypothesis for this thesis was that there would not be a statistically significant effect between minority demographics and retention of Junior Naval Officers. To measure the role model effect between minority leadership and retention, two models were utilized. These two models yielded 21 different results for the three main minority demographics of African American, Female, and Hispanic and their respective role model retention effects. Of these 21 results, only one, the role model effect for African American Junior Officer serving under an average percentage of African American Senior Leadership, was statistically significant. A one percentage point increase in the percentage of African American Senior Leadership yielded a 0.007 decrease in the likelihood of retention. This result runs counter to the findings of previous studies. Future research is recommended. Policy revisions affecting accessions, promotions, and leadership selection based solely on minority demographics should be placed on hold until further research is conducted. http://archive.org/details/theeffectsofmino1094562307 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Although females represent almost half of the U.S. civilian labor force, they account for less than 15 percent of the officers in the U.S. military. To account for this discrepancy, this thesis tests for gender bias within the U.S. military by analyzing unique datasets derived from Naval Postgraduate School. We first conduct a randomized control trial by means of a survey (n=234). One group responds to scenarios relating to one gender; the second group responds to the same scenarios but relating to the opposite gender. We then use statistical analysis and ordinary least squares models to compare responses between genders. Second, using NPS student evaluations of teaching (n=175,093), we conduct t tests, examine the correlation of evaluation questions on instructor effectiveness, and employ ordinary least squares models using student and course fixed effects, and instructor and course fixed effects while controlling for student, instructor, class and school characteristics to analyze how gender influences evaluations. Our results identify that students favor matched gender pairs, with the effect largest among male pairs. We found this effect to be of marginal economic significance. These findings may indicate the effectiveness of gender equality training, or may reflect the current social climate concerning gender bias. http://archive.org/details/theidentificatio1094558369 Outstanding Thesis Major, Australian Army Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis research developed comparative analysis models to explore whether too many or too few flight hours affected the likelihood of a mishap. The objective was to determine whether the period of sequestration and the number of total flight hours affected the number of aircraft mishaps. Flying too much leads to higher levels of fatigue, but not flying enough could result in reduced levels of proficiency. Flights during a period of sequestration are subjected to reduced flight hour funding. Data for the research covers the period of peak military funding (fiscal year 2000–February 2013) to periods of sequestration (March 2013–September 2016). Additionally, controls for night flight and overwater were used in the model to allow for better estimates of the effects of flight hours on the likelihood of a mishap. The research uses individual and squadron-level, aggregate standardized daily, weekly, and monthly flight-hour data and employs a fixed-effects logit model. The research addressed errors and controls that could affect the outcome estimates. The model's individual estimates found enough evidence to support indicators used for sequestration, high flight hours, night flight, and overwater flight had statistically significant effects on the likelihood of a mishap at either the individual or squadron level. More research is suggested with modeling other aircraft platforms to better observe trends over time. The results provide policymakers with a better understanding of the relationship between the number of flight hours and its effect on mishaps. Policymakers can use that understanding to make more informed decisions about budgetary funding of naval aviation. http://archive.org/details/annalysisofrelat1094553007 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this project is to identify the costs and benefits associated with the application of closed-cell spray foam insulation to forward-deployed, semipermanent/nonpermanent structures, and to provide recommendations regarding future integration, use, and employment. According to the Department of Defense (DOD), forward-deployed generators, used to provide power to base support activities, are the largest single consumer of fuel throughout the battlefield. Eighty percent of the energy provided by generators is assessed to power environmental control units that run incessantly due to the poor insulating properties of the structures, according to a 2010 study conducted by the Department of the Air Force Civil Engineer Support Agency. Recent DOD policy has focused more on energy use and consumption but fails to address, and provide solutions for, major consumers of fuel throughout the battlefield. The incorporation of closed-cell, spray foam insulation into legacy DOD forward-deployed construction practices yields a significant return on investment, short-payback/break-even period, and reduces mission and personnel risk to deployed military forces. http://archive.org/details/costbenefitnalys1094545895 Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Lieutenant, United States Navy Captain, United States Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis establishes the framework for determining the feasibility of consolidating the two current Marine Corps recruiting depots into one location. The drawdown in manpower and growing fiscal constraints is forcing all services to analyze their expenses. Through the analysis of costs to consolidate depots at one of the existing locations or establish a new facility, the researcher makes recommendations on which costs are relevant to the Marine Corps in this process. The final product provides a framework for identifying relevant costs and benefits applicable to making decisions for the consolidation of depots. http://archive.org/details/identificationof1094545855 Captain, United States Marine Corps Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes how effective the Marine CorpsTiered Evaluation System is at measuring future success, more specifically, in the form of promotions, career longevity, physical fitness level and performance evaluation averages. The analysis observes first term re-enlistees from each quality tier through their future service to observe promotions, career longevity, physical fitness level and performance evaluation averages. The analysis utilizes ordinary least squares regression and linear probability models to analyze success measure outcomes. The outcomes are compared across various tier levels to determine if the tiered evaluation system is a valid tool at predicting future success. The findings indicate the Marine CorpsTiered Evaluation System is valid at distinguishing individual quality but can be improved in many ways to better distinguish quality and aid the decision makers in the reenlistment process. These improvements include a system encompassing more tiers and re-weighting the quality score components. The USMC Tiered Evaluation System is the foundation for identifying quality Marines for retention. Improving this system will better aid stakeholders in the reenlistment process and improve overall quality and organizational effectiveness. http://archive.org/details/effectivenessofu1094545175 Captain, United States Marine Corps Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The objective of this study is to examine the effect that state-level and county-level economic variables have on U.S. Navy recruiting. To achieve this goal, I conducted state-level and county-level fixed effects models that examined the effects of state and county unemployment rates, as well as state employment-to-population ratios on Navy recruiting applicant rates, accession rates, high-quality applicant rates, and high-quality accession rates over the years from 1991 to 2013. Through the state-level and county-level fixed effects model estimation, it is determined that state unemployment rates, state employment-to-population ratios, and county unemployment rates all have a statistically significant effect on Navy recruiting, and that they all predict Navy recruiting equally well. http://archive.org/details/determininghowto1094545195 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the effects of different enlistment age on the first-term attrition for U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps enlisted personnel with non-prior service and prior service that attrited between fiscal years of 1995 and 2013. Two separate probit models were used to analyze attrition behavior. The first model was formed to analyze the effect of age at entry on the first-term attrition for four forces. The second model focuses on the attrition based on the character disorder and analyzes the effect of different enlistment ages on this attrition. Both attrition models are conditional and analyzing attrition behavior for four terms'at six months, between 6 and 12 months, between 12 and 24 months, and between 24 and 45 months. The independent variables for the two models types included demographic variables, such as Black, White, Hispanic, other race, and unknown; education level; different enlistment age dummies between 18 and 42; female or male; and AFQT Cat. Unemployment rates by states were included in the regressions. The study concluded that enlistment ages do significantly affect the attrition of enlisted personnel. This effect varies across different time periods'the first six months, the second six months, the second year, and 45-months'and different forces. http://archive.org/details/theeffectofdiffe1094541442 Captain, Turkish Army;1st Lt, Turkish Army Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The objective of this research is to gain a greater understanding of how various incentives, both non-monetary and monetary, can impact recruiter productivity. Towards this end, I developed and administered a survey that was applied to most NRDs and elicited preferences for various monetary and non-monetary incentive schemes. One key result is that enlisted production recruiters tend not to value non-monetary awards, while management believes that these awards are important motivators. The other key result is that a modest bonus per high-quality contract (of $50 or $100), along with eliminating demand constraints, would significantly increase productivity. Based on conservative assumptions, I find that a $100 bonus per high-quality contract would allow for a reduction of over 600 recruiters and potentially have a 35-to-1 benefit-cost ratio. In light of potential problems of using bonuses, other results suggest that giving a half-day of liberty per HQ contract would also elicit significantly higher productivity, notably with no increase in costs. http://archive.org/details/theeffectsofince1094541426 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This study explores how the match or mismatch between recruiters and recruits in terms of gender and race/ethnicity is associated with various measures of the quality of recruits. Specifically, amongst recruits of a similar race/ethnicity and/or gender, we compare across recruiters, by race/ethnicity and by gender, AFQT scores, and the likelihood of Delayed Entry Program attrition and attrition at various points in the career. Personnel data on the universe of Navy recruiters and recruits over the past 15 years is used. The findings suggest that while there is a statistically significant effect of the gender match on the quality of recruits, it is very small in economic terms. On the other hand, there is an economically (and statistically) large effect of the racial/ethnic match or mismatch on the quality of recruits. In particular, Hispanic and Black recruits recruited by recruiters of the same race/ethnicity have lower AFQT scores as well as lower probability of being a Category A recruit. Furthermore, the recruits signed by Hispanic recruiters (within each racial/ethnic group) are less likely to attrite in the first year of service. As recruiters may not be randomly assigned to recruiting populations, it is impossible to determine whether these associations are reflecting a causal or correlational relationship, a fact which must be known in order to use these findings for policy purposes. http://archive.org/details/recruiterndrecru1094538990 Civilian, Ministry of Defence, Singapore Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines how the timing of graduate education affects retention among officers in the nuclear community. Officers were divided into four main categories: Earned a masters degree in the first five years of their career, earned a masters after five years of their career, never earned a masters, and commissioned with a masters. The retention behavior of officers in each of these categories was compared to determine the effect on an officers decision to remain in the Navy until promoted to CDR. Officers who earned their graduate degree in the first five years of their career had a positive effect on retention given the officer had attained the rank of Lieutenant Commander or had at least been commissioned in the nuclear community for ten years. The cost to send an officer to graduate school in the first five years is substantially less than sending him later in his career. The scholarship programs that send officers to graduate school early in their career make a substantial contribution to the nuclear community and should be utilized as a cost effective tool for all officers to earn their graduate degree before their Executive Officer sea tour. http://archive.org/details/retentioneffects1094534643 Ensign, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Commander Navy Recruiting Command (CNRC) has changed the Awards and Incentives system in recent years in an effort to increase recruiter productivity and promote recruit quality goal achievement. The latest awards and incentive system updates have placed increased emphasis on recruit quality in support of Navy Recruiting Commands strategic plan Recruit Force 2020. This thesis provides a detailed overview of the current Navy awards and incentives system. The thesis also attempts to estimate the effect of specific awards on the quality of recruit contracts. Furthermore, this thesis estimates the effect of monthly goaling targets on the quality of recruits. The objective is to determine if the current Navy awards and incentive system has an unintended consequence of reducing recruit quality. The analysis tests whether recruiters sacrifice quality as the end of the month approaches to meet their monthly goaling deadline. Also, the analysis tests the impact of Gold Wreath award on recruiter productivity and recruit quality. The results indicate that recruit quality tends to fall as the end-of-the-month approaches, specifically during the last week of the month. However, the results did not support the hypothesis that recruiters sacrifice quality to obtain their first Gold Wreath award. http://archive.org/details/analysisoftheusn1094532868 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This study analyzes the effects of OEF/OIF deployment (including deployment location, frequency of deployment, and days deployed) on the probability of being diagnosed with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The authors examine active duty personnel in all four services of the U.S. armed services since the start of the Global War on Terrorism. The data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and TRICARE; they include deployment, administrative, and medical information for all active duty service personnel between FY2001 and FY2011 (N=2,800,999). The authors used descriptive statistics, as well as multivariate analysis (probit models), to assess the deployment effects. Results show that a deployment, especially to Iraq, is associated with an increased probability of being diagnosed with PTSD and that the magnitude of the effect is higher for deployments after 2005 for the Army. Serving in combat-arms specialty fields is also associated with a higher probability of being diagnosed with PTSD among Army and Marine Corps service members. Deployment is associated with a lower probability of diagnosis for bipolar disorder. The total cases of schizophrenia among active duty service members are very low; thus, this condition is excluded from the multivariate analysis. http://archive.org/details/atenyearlookback1094527860 Major, Singapore Army Civilian, Ministry of Defense, Singapore Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Report Critical Success Factors (CSF) are essential ingredients within an organization that are necessary to meet critical mission objectives. Identifying those factors can be a vital asset and assist leadership in achieving successful outcomes in contract management. This report will focus on three major contracting commands within the United States Navy Naval Supply Systems Command, Global Logistics Support (NAVSUP-GLS), Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA), Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and two major Department of Defense (DoD) contractors. The report analyzed contract critical success factors from information and feedback received from each agency. In particular, the research identified any statistically significant correlation within these activities using a detailed regression analysis. The report concluded with findings of significance to Naval contracting activities based on apparent correlations between Critical Success Factors CSFs and recommendations for further research. http://archive.org/details/navycontractinga1094517414 Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy;Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

MBA Professional Project This thesis provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of a flat tax rate on military members. The flat tax-rate proposal is the most popular alternative to our progressive tax system. The foremost experts on this topic are Robert E. Hall and Alvin Rabushka. They have made several claims regarding the flat tax, however, insufficient research has been conducted to determine the impact of the flat tax rate on the income of military members. This thesis will address the claims of Hall and Rabushka and provide a quantitative analysis of the effect of a flat tax rate on military members of various pay grades. http://archive.org/details/fromprogressivet109457417 Lieutenant, United States Navy

This thesis examines the effect of attrition on USMCR NPS marines who enlisted with a 6X2 contract in FY 19942005. Three cohorts were established to determine if the events of September 11, 2001 had any impact on attrition rates with this population. The Pre-9/11 cohort enlisted in FY 19941995 and was used as a control group. The Overlap-9/11 cohort enlisted in FY 19962001, had no expectation of deployment but many did deploy in support of the Global War on Terrorism. The Post-9/11 cohort enlisted in FY 20022005 after 9/11 with full expectation to deploy. The analysis included previous attrition studies, descriptive statistics, and two different probit regression models to determine the effects of various characteristics on attrition. The variables analyzed included deployment variables, demographics, education and aptitude variables, and regional areas. The thesis found a decrease in attrition from the Pre-9/11 cohort to the Post-9/11 cohort. This was most likely caused by an increasing unemployment rate and deployments overseas. Deployments to combat areas decreased the probability of attrition. The other variables remained constant throughout the cohorts with predicted results. Overall, attrition is lower after 9/11 but as the economy improves and deployments decrease, attrition could return to Pre-9/11 levels. http://archive.org/details/unitedstatesmari109456807 Major, United States Marine Corps

This thesis documents findings on the relationship of government budget deficits and defense spending for France, Germany, Greece, and the United Kingdom in detail and for NATO and OECD country collectives. The thesis topic is relevant, as many European countries are justifying their recent cuts in defense spending with high government budget deficits. The author looked at different data sources and metrics to graphically analyze the developments in government budget deficits and defense expenditures for the selected countries over a fifteen-year period and statistically analyze possible interactions between lagged budget deficits and defense expenditures for NATO and OECD country collectives. Six regression models were developed and applied to the country collectives with different time periods, from 1975 to 2009. A fixed effects regression analysis was used to determine the significance levels and the standard errors of the independent variables. The research method consisted of four activities: review of related research, analysis of government budget spending levels, analysis of defense spending levels and graphical and statistical analysis of government budget deficit and defense spending relationship. The literature survey focused on data research, theories on government budget deficits and defense spending and the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact. http://archive.org/details/francegermanygre109455546 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

S cost data in this thesis yielded results that differed from the 2002 IDA report, and showed a statistically significant relationship between platform age and maintenance costs. This analysis is intended to aid in future naval leadership decisions on how best to achieve the desired force structure of the fleet. Conclusions drawn from this thesis will contribute relevant cost prediction insight that could greatly impact future decisions between extending the life of active surface combatants versus developing and procuring new ships. Predictions of future maintenance funding requirements drawn from this thesis can be incorporated into ship service-life decisions and potentially improve cost forecast accuracy and legitimacy. http://archive.org/details/annalysisofcgcru109455707 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom have affected the mental health of the U.S. military, as evidenced by an increasing trend in mental health illness. This thesis evaluates the effects of deployment history on major depression and substance abuse in the active duty population from 2001 to 2006. The research specifically evaluates cumulative effects of deployment (location, total days, frequency of separate tours) on major depression and substance abuse across the different branches of the military. Probit regressions were used to estimate the effects of deployment characteristics on the rate of major depression and substance abuse using 2001-2006 data from TRICARE and DMDC, and all models control for service members' demographic and service characteristics, as well as time trend. In general, the results support that deployments, especially to Iraq and Afghanistan, significantly affect the probability of active duty personnel across all services being diagnosed with major depression or substance abuse. Furthermore, personnel deployed only once under OEF/OIF have the highest probability of both conditions compared to those with multiple deployments, indicating a selection bias: those diagnosed were excluded from future deployments. Lastly, the risk of both conditions, in particular substance abuse, increases as cumulative days of deployment increases. http://archive.org/details/theeffectofdeplo109455817 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the effects of unemployment on first-term attrition for U.S. Navy enlisted personnel in the pay grades of E-1 to E-9 with no prior service that attrited between fiscal years 1999 and 2007. Four separate probit models were formed to analyze the effect of the state unemployment rate on first-term attrition for Navy enlisted personnel for cohorts during six months of service, 12 months of service, 24 months of service and 45 months of service. A second model type analyzed attrition over a specific period of time. Attrition was estimated during six months, between 6-12 months of service, between 12--24 months of service and between 24--45 months of service. These models were developed to predict the likelihood of an enlisted sailor attriting when state unemployment rates increase by one percentage point. The independent variables for the two models types included demographic variables, such as Black, White, Asian, Native American, other race, education years, age, female, male, AFQT__score, pay grade dependents, no dependents, first enlistment with bonus, and first enlistment no bonus. Dummy variables for 1999-2007 and dummy variables for states were created to explain any bias of attrition by circumstances, such as the economy. Consistent negative effects on attrition included unemployment rate, Blacks, AFQT scores, years of education and pay grade. Positive influences included age, having no dependents, and females. http://archive.org/details/effectofstateune109455744 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze historical United States Marine Corps enlisted attrition behavior and apply time series forecasting techniques by grade and Years of Service in order to identify methods to improve manpower analysts' ability to effectively forecast attrition behavior. This study compared the results of one to five-year Moving Average models and the results of one to five-year Weighted Moving Average models based on two Measures of Effectiveness, Mean Square Error and the Mean Absolute Percent Error. The results of the Friedman test indicate statistical significance of the results in relation to the Mean Square Error of the one to two-year Moving Average models. This thesis demonstrates that in most cases, a simple one-year Moving Average more effectively estimates attrition behavior than the other Moving Average or Weighted Moving Average models analyzed. http://archive.org/details/forecastingenlis109455738 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This research examines the role of arms export production in achieving financial cost savings to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). A review of three theoretical benefits, identified by arms trade scholars, that DoD enjoys as a result of arms export production shows that there is some merit to the claim that unit costs may be lowered as a result of exports. Using the F-16 fighter aircraft as a case study, this research employs financial cost analysis using cost improvement curves to estimate the extent to which DoD benefitted in terms of reduced per-unit costs through concurrent export production. This research makes a significant contribution to the cost analysis and arms exports literature by quantifying commonly purported financial benefits attributable to arms export production. http://archive.org/details/exploringfinanci109454980 US Marine Corps (USMC) author Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Navy's Selective Reenlistment Bonus Management System (SRBMS) uses a model known as ROGER to identify the SRB-eligible population and to predict the number of SRB takers for the following fiscal year. The Enlisted Bonus Manager uses the ROGER model to determine the SRB plans during the execution year. Over the years, constant changes in the structure of the SRB program have led to increasing levels of predictive error in the ROGER model. Specifically, the ROGER model has routinely under-identified the SRB-eligible population, which, in turn, led to under-predictions in the size of the predicted number of SRB takers and the SRB budget. One of the reasons for the underpredictions is the ROGER model does not account for sailors who acquire an SRB-eligible NEC during the execution year. The objective of this thesis is to determine whether the predictive errors in the Navy's SRBMS (ROGER) model can be reduced by accounting for new NEC/skill acquisition by sailors each fiscal year. NEC/skill acquisitions are accounted for by incorporating data into the ROGER model from the Naval Education and Training Command (NETC) on annual school enrollments and graduations. This thesis analyzes the impact of adding the NETC skill acquisition data to the ROGER model by analyzing the predicted SRB-eligible population and the predicted number of SRB takers and by assessing the resulting impact on the predicted SRB budget. http://archive.org/details/theeffectsofinco109454721 US Navy (USN) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The supply of high quality recruits is limited and services are facing a diminishing recruiting market. Under these constraints, it is important to identify which groups of recruits are the next best alternatives to an ideal recruit. This research examines the attrition rates of recruits with less-than ideal qualifications which include recruits enlisted with waivers, without high school diploma or with low AFQT scores in the U.S. Army. The secondary focus of this study is to analyze the effect of a conduct or drug waiver on attrition due to behavioral or drug problems. We use data from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) consisting of all enlisted accessions for U.S. Army between fiscal year 2000 and fiscal year 2006. We employ multivariate data analysis to analyze both attrition and unsuitability attrition. The study reveals that educational credentials have a decreasing effect on both attrition and unsuitability attrition. Conduct waivers have a decreasing effect on early attrition, but an increasing effect on first term attrition. Unsuitability attrition rates of recruits with conduct waivers are higher for all subcategories with drug waivers leading. Recruits with medical waivers are more likely to attrite in all attrition points, but this effect is likely to be offset by higher educational standards. They are also less likely to attrite for unsuitability reasons. http://archive.org/details/thenextbestltern109454849 Turkish Air Force authors. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Marine Corps, as with any organization with a large workforce, must accurately monitor and more importantly predict the transition rates among personnel entering and exiting the enlisted and officer ranks. This emphasis is even more appropriate given that the Marine Corps has been authorized to increase the current authorized end strength by 13,000 personnel from Fiscal Year 2008 to Fiscal Year 2010. The purpose of this thesis is to apply parametric modeling (specifically survival analysis) to historical data sets of enlisted personnel in order develop a more efficient forecasting tool for military planners. It is the intent to include in the model those characteristics that significantly influence attrition behavior, and aggregate these findings to an efficient, yet effective forecasting model. Therefore, this thesis will analyze the interaction of time, individual characteristics, and those causal attributes that determine whether a Marine completes his or her contracted service. The current forecasting method used by the Marine Corps forecasts enlisted attrition annually. This study forecasts enlisted attrition monthly within occupational field. Hence, the data was structured to provide this depth of analysis. In comparison to the current forecasting method of exponential smoothing this study found that the use of survival analysis could be beneficial to not only forecast attrition, but also provide a descriptive assessment of attrition rates amongst occupation fields without loss of information due to averaging or weighting probabilities. http://archive.org/details/forecastingmarin109454873 US Marine Corps (USMC) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis addresses the trend analysis of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) prevalence across the different branches of armed services in the U.S military between FY2001 and FY2006, as well as the effects of deployment characteristics on the probability of being diagnosed with PTSD among the active duty service personnel in the different branches. On top of these, this study will also highlight the patterns of the comorbidity and treatment costs of PTSD across the different branches of armed services. The data used in the thesis are provided by TRICARE, the Department of Defense's (DoD) health care system and Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), to obtain the demographics, deployment characteristics (deployment location, deployment frequencies, deployment duration) and the inpatient and outpatient medical information and services rendered by physicians for all active duty service personnel whom were diagnosed with PTSD between FY2001 and FY2006. http://archive.org/details/economicnalysiso109453761 Singapore Navy author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis addresses the effects of deployment characteristics and demographic data on propensity rates for developing Post-traumatic stress disorder. The results will serve to identify the current trends of PTSD among sailors based on quantitative analysis of medical data provided by AMSA and DMDC. It will also inform the Department of Defense on the potential policy implications involved in this study. The medical data analyzed will be provided and released from the Army Medical Surveillance Activity (AMSA) and DMDC will be combined by AMSA to obtain demographics, pre and post deployment health assessment, deployment areas, and years of deployment. Participants include all Navy personnel who responded to the Post deployment health assessment (DD Form 2796) any time from January 1999 to September 2007. Factors having positive impacts on the propensity to develop PTSD include deployment characteristics like hostile deployments, deployment duration lengths and repeated deployments for enlisted sailors. Officers were not affected by deployment lengths or repeated deployments. Demographic factors that were significant included gender in both data sets and race for enlisted sailors. For rank among the enlisted sailors the more senior in rank decreased the probability of developing PTSD. http://archive.org/details/theeffectsofgwot109454190 US Army (USA) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Since the start of the Global War on Terror, the Navy has provided individual augmentee (IA) sailors to support contingency operations in order for other Services to effectively perform their missions. This study analyzes the effects of IA deployments on the mental health outcome among Navy sailors. Data for this study came from three different sources: PERS-4G3 (Active Duty Augmentation Branch), Army Medical Surveillance Activity, and Defense Manpower Data Center. A multivariate analysis using probit models was used to estimate the effects. Analyses on the officer and enlisted models indicate that an IA deployment by itself does not appear to adversely affect mental and physiological health outcomes. However, an IA officer deployed to a hostile location substantially increases the probability of requiring a mental health referral compared to a non-IA officer who is also deployed to a hostile region. In contrast, an enlisted service member on an IA tour to a hostile location has a lower probability of an adverse mental and physiological health outcome compared to a non-IA enlisted service member who is also assigned to a hostile region. Due to the long period of manifestation of mental health problems, future study should follow up with those soldiers one year after the deployment. http://archive.org/details/effectofnavyindi109454285 US Navy (USN) author. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.