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Copyright of Transfer: Zeitschrift für Kommunikation & Markenmanagement is the property of Deutsche Werbewissenschaftliche Gesellschaft and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Research in Developmental Social Work is the property of Beni Suef University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The search for new methods and tools to successfully address sustainability challenges is gaining momentum, due to the growing awareness of sustainability issues. Over the past two decades, design thinking (DT) has become a phenomenon in a wide range of contexts, and has recently drawn research attention as an innovative approach for handling complex socioecological problems. This review paper analyzes DT processes covered in sustainable built environment (SBE) articles that focus specifically on DT and innovation, with a view to suggesting/developing an affective new model for sustainability research. The research design was developed following Denyer and Tranfield's method. The author reviewed documents using the evidence from all open access English language articles related to this issue between 2000 and 2022 identified using a Scopus database search in order to clearly identify and analyze the challenges and opportunities for innovation growth in SBE using a DT and innovation framework, 50 articles were selected based on the PRISMA statement and plotted on a modified Ansoff Matrix. This systematic literature review indicates that research regarding DT for innovation in SBE is challenged by the matter of how to identify new contexts and new solutions for future-oriented sustainability. It is also proposed that a wider range of stakeholders are required to help optimize the solutions being generated. The results reveal research gaps in integrating foresight and DT into sustainability research. A model of inclusive foresight design thinking (FDT) is proposed to guide future research to support the practical application and enhance the viability of DT in sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the sustainability issues that agriculture faces in advanced economies, agroecology has gained increasing relevance in scientific, political, and social debates. This has promoted discussion about transitions to agroecology, which represents a significant advancement. Accordingly, it has become a growing field of research. We reviewed the literature on and in support of farm transitions to agroecology in advanced economies in order to identify key research challenges and suggest innovative research paths. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Research that supports exploration and definition of desired futures, whether based on future-oriented modeling or expert-based foresight approaches, should more explicitly include the farm level. It should stimulate the creativity and design ability of farmers and other stakeholders, and also address issues of representation and power among them. (2) Research that creates awareness and assesses farms before, during or after transition requires more holistic and dynamic assessment frameworks. These frameworks need to be more flexible to adapt to the diversity of global and local challenges. Their assessment should explicitly include uncertainty due to the feedback loops and emergent properties of transitions. (3) Research that analyzes and supports farms during transition should focus more on the dynamics of change processes by valuing what happens on the farms. Research should especially give more credence to on-farm experiments conducted by farmers and develop new tools and methods (e.g., for strategic monitoring) to support these transitions. This is the first review of scientific studies of farm transitions to agroecology. Overall, the review indicates that these transitions challenge the system boundaries, temporal horizons, and sustainability dimensions that agricultural researchers usually consider. In this context, farm transitions to agroecology require changes in the current organization and funding of research in order to encourage longer term and more adaptive configurations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Yearbook of Swiss Administrative Sciences is the property of Ubiquity Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Philosophy, Culture & Political Science is the property of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In order to humanize forecasting, communities have been proposed to activate and enlarge a collective ability of foresight. To better understand how communities relate to collective foresight abilities, this article untangles its critical modes, roles and social media involved. Based on a fine-grained analysis of 10 community practices, we uncovered the abilities of capturing, conceiving and designing foresights enacted in the distinct modes of creative, user and strategic communities. Discoveries included the novel abilities of conceiving foresights, a new groundbreaker role for strategic designers and specific activities of social media listening with regard to future interests. Grounded on the prime findings, we propose a framework with propositions that shape further theory development on community abilities of designing foresights. Further research directions are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract By combining qualitative scenarios and life cycle assessment (LCA), we place the latter in a larger context. This study outlines the importance of the integration of future perspectives into LCA, and also the significance of taking changes in the environment of technology into account, rather than just technological development itself. Accordingly, we focused on adapting the background system of an attributional LCA in the agri-food sector. The proposed technology was assumed not have evolved in the considered time horizon. In this context, the objectives of this paper were twofold: (i) to methodologically prove the applicability of integrating qualitative scenarios into LCA and (ii) to focus on changes in the background system, which is sometimes overlooked in the context of future-oriented LCA. This allowed to evaluate the future potential of different technologies, assessing their environmental impact under uncertain future developments. Methodologically, the qualitative information from scenarios was transformed into quantitative data, which was successively fed into the life cycle inventory (LCI) of the LCA approach. This point of integration into the second phase of LCA translates into future changes in the entire environment in which a technology is used. This means that qualitatively described scenario narratives need to be converted into value estimates in order to be incorporated into the LCA model. A key conclusion is that changes in the background of an LCA—the changing framework expressed through the inventory database—can be very important for the environmental impact of emerging technologies. This approach was applied to a food processing technology to produce apple juice. The proposed methodology enables technology developers to make their products future-proof and robust against socioeconomic development. In addition, the market perspective, if spelled out in the scenarios, can be integrated, leading to a more holistic picture of LCA with its environmental focus, while simultaneously empowering actors to make the right strategic decisions today, especially when considering the long investment cycles in the agri-food sector.

Introduction. The search for new tools, methods of research and forecasting of teachers’ professional challenges is conditioned by the development of the Russian education system and the tasks to develop teachers’ competencies. This article presents a research solution for predicting the professional challenges faced by teachers in the regional education system using foresight methods.Aim. The current research aims to predict the challenges of teachers’ professional activity, considering the uncertainty of the formation of their foresight competencies.Methodology and research methods. The foresight methodology was chosen as a methodological basis for predicting teachers’ professional challenges. The first experience of technological foresight presented by B. R. Martin, developed in different countries, spheres and industry systems (M. Hilbert, Y. Kishita, I. Miles, J. Othmer, C. Reimers-Hild, A. Magruk, etc.), has found its application in education (A. Havas, V. Munigala, J. Rong, Sánchez-Torres J. M., Sjodin, A. Yaver, etc.) and modern studies of professional competencies (M. Rieckmann, L. M. Andriukhina, E. F. Zeer, A. Kononyuk, L. E. Kurneshova, V. P. Smorchkova, etc.). This research is the first implementation of foresight methodology to study the education system of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The prototype for the development of tools was the experience and materials of foresight research in Finland. In the course of the study, 241 individual interviews were conducted with the representatives of various stakeholders in the development of education – students of the pedagogical university, teachers and parents. The most active part and the largest share were teachers (77%), students – future teachers (15%) and parents (8%).Results. As a result of the study, it was found that the main challenge in the future will be the lack of competencies and skills of teachers to apply the necessary techniques and technologies. From the teachers’ point of view, the main challenge in the future will be the lack of time for the necessary changes. From the point of view of future teachers, the main challenges of teachers will be the lack of desire and motivation on the part of students and teachers, lack of finance provision, equipment, resources. From the point of view of parents, the main difficulty in the future will remain excessive bureaucratisation of the learning process. In their opinion, the lack of desire and motivation on the part of students and teachers, as well as the lack of competency of teachers to apply the necessary techniques and technologies, are the main challenges of teachers.Scientific novelty. The research is aimed at solving the issues of choosing and adapting foresight methods in conditions of uncertainty of foresight competencies of its participants. The study promotes the possibility of expanding the range of stakeholders and considers the limitations of the spread of foresight technologies in Russia. The research demonstrated the possibility of predicting the assessment of teachers’ professional challenges, which contributes to the foresight study of competencies.Practical significance. The received forecast about the professional challenges faced by teachers will provide the support to adjust the existing system of professional development of teaching staff and to lay the foundation for regional monitoring.

The article studies an acute issue of university development, in particular the Russian Plekhanov University of Economics, in the context of participation in the contest of universities claiming leadership in working out new academic knowledge, technologies and innovation to be introduced in Russian economy and social sphere under the program of strategic academic leadership ‘Priority 2030’. Restructuring of the current organizational structure of governing educational and academic work acts as a fundamental trend providing implementation of the new strategic program of university development meeting the principles of ‘Priority-2030‘. After a long period of splitting education and science by vertical lines of the predominant linear-functional model, today restructuring implies their integration on the basis of a new strategic unit, i. e. higher school. Concrete advantages of higher school as a new strong point in the system of university governance were demonstrated in comparison with faculties and chairs and hyper-faculties or departments in other universities. A project mechanism of education program management was put forward, which leans on its academic leader. The authors formulated the algorithm of building the academic and educational potential of university and developed a principle scheme of the university educational and academic platform organization, illustrated by the subject field ‘Economic and Management’.

The purpose of the article is to develop a foresight of the development of the natural gas market in the context of the transition to a low-carbon economy to provide understanding of possible options and forecast the future of the world market. Analyzing, systematizing and summarizing the scientific works of scholars, the concept of a low-carbon economy, its importance and necessity for solving acute environmental and political problems of mankind related to greenhouse emissions, global warming, environmental pollution, lack of natural resources or dependence of countries on energy suppliers were considered. In the course of the research was used foresight with a focus on the method of developing scenarios for the possible future development of the natural gas market in the context of the transition to a carbon-free economy. Using the reporting data of companies and countries of the world, the main indicators for similar features are analyzed and systematized, on the basis of which four scenarios are built to draw conclusions and help gas producers improve their activities and build long-term strategies in the context of the transition to a low-carbon economy. The article allocates the companies that are an example for the transition to a low-carbon economy, in particular, the Ukrainian company «Naftogaz», which has actively begun to develop the direction of using alternative energy sources to maximize the benefits of the minimum amount of natural resources. The ways of preserving the positions of gas companies in the market are examined. The recommendations proposed for companies will make it possible to quickly adapt to new conditions of existence during the transformation of the gas market. Prospects for further research in this direction are determining the degree of transition of the natural gas market to a low-carbon economy, its impact on the activities of gas enterprises, ecology and environmental pollution, and the provision of energy resources to countries of the world that are in need of additional sources.

World Futures Day (WFD), the 24 h round-the-world participatory method hosted every year by The Millennium Project and others on March 1, stimulates conversations and collective intelligence on possible futures. The 2023 edition marked its tenth anniversary. The 2023 Global futures agenda coming out from the data analysis is composed of four main clusters, each listing future oriented topics and related contents. Cluster 1, Complex solutions for complex problems, includes topics such as Environmental regeneration, Predictable food systems, Energy transition, Homo Galaxia, and Synergetic relations for peace. Cluster 2, A hyper-technological humanity, includes topics such as A biological revolution, New definitions of truth, An emotional AGI, A conscious AGI, and AGI governance. Cluster 3, Education and learning for a better future, includes topics such as Intelligent agent teachers, Intergenerational storytelling, and A cultural shift to self-actualization. Cluster 4, Improving global foresight, includes topics such as Futurists as a contradiction, A new leadership agenda, Futures shapers, The power of stories, Judging trillions of scenarios, Committees and summits for the future. After discussing some changes in the contents addressed over the years and some potential next steps for the research on WFD, the conclusions report that one key takeaway from WFD 2023 is that we have a vital need for pragmatic hope. • Synergetic relations help resilience from a systemic perspective. • We must talk about global agreements and treaties on AGI governance. • The next leaders may be communities that answer to collective needs. • AI-powered Futures Research will judge trillions of scenarios. • WFD is a participatory free-for-all free-flowing conversation on futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of foresight, which allows companies and organizations to build scenarios and inform the creation and sustainment of their competitive advantage, relies on the integration of several steps. Scanning is a crucial step of foresight, as it informs and influences the results of the whole process and, thus, the strategic decision-making of the company. Sources and methods of scanning for foresight analysis can be diverse and lead to different results, although few studies investigate such differences: more specifically, the informative power of academic and non-academic articles and reports has not been assessed yet. This study aims to shed novel light on how the different analysis methods of full reading of records and text mining analysis isolate and gather forces of change differently, based on the source analyzed. The study's empirical context is the metaverse and its application in healthcare. We find that each source and method by itself is unable to fully gather the whole set of forces of change; however, each source presents some topics that are specific to the target readers of the source, and each methodology presents some advantages as well as some limitations. From the comparison of the results, theoretical and managerial implications are drawn. • The informative power of academic and non-academic articles and reports is compared. • Extensive reading and text mining analyses are applied. • Results differ based on the combination of sources and methods. • There is the need of expertise on both text mining and Foresight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research article argues for the effectiveness of storytelling techniques not only for communicating complex systems, but also for analysing complex systems and modelling outcomes. This kind of analysis and modelling of impacts is vital in strategic decision making and technology foresight. Strategy engages at many points with complex sociotechnical systems. Disruptive technological impact does not necessarily inhere in the technological objects or capabilities themselves. Rather, disruption arises from a convergence of factors including social, human, and ethical considerations. These factors are manifold, difficult (if not impossible) to predict, and—when it comes to the actions of individuals—informed by unknowable subjective personal histories, experiences, and current circumstances. Faced with such opaque and constantly shifting contextual factors, foreseeing technological impact presents challenges that are difficult to surmount. We show how the techniques of storytelling shed light on those challenges. • Considers the value of storytelling within the frame of systems thinking. • Research team includes working practitioners of creative writing. • Offers perspectives on science fiction and futures thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel business model design tool called Future ecosystem business model (FEBM). The FEBM aims to address the lack of managerial tools linking business models, foresight, and ecosystem strategizing in the context of systemic technological changes, as those characterizing the sustainability transition in a multi-level perspective. The tool has been shaped through a design science approach building on a structured review of the literature. A field test was conducted through a case study to test the proposed tool. The empirical context was that of a publicly funded project in the field of electrofuels (efuels). The project foresaw the development and integration of several technologies, whose adoption was likely to have significant implications within and across industries. The proposed approach contributes to the literature on business model design in the context of technology-driven transformations characterized by high uncertainty and interdependence, such as those related to the sustainability transition. Strategy and innovation managers may find in the proposed FEBM tool an actionable approach to shape decision-making against far-reaching technological and societal challenges. • The Future Ecosystem Business Model (FEBM) tool is presented. • The tool integrates foresight and ecosystem logic in business model design. • The tool can be applied in the context of systemic technological changes, as those characterizing the sustainability transition. • The tool is designed through design science research. • A field test is conducted in the field of electrofuels (efuels). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresight methods help us to think about the future and overcome a bias toward short-term thinking in decision making. However, many approaches to investigating the future tend to leave implicit how individuals involved in the interventions relate to the present and to the future in practice and over time. To address this gap, our study highlights the affordances of two methodologies —Scenario Planning and Future Design. In a pilot study combining these methods, we report the results of the novel hybridized approach applied in strategic planning workshops across four corporations. Initial reflections and learnings from the pilot case study and literature review helps to build understandings of the practical and theoretical workings of the methodological innovation. By investigating this combination of foresight methodologies, this research opens up new ways for thinking about futuring and proposes a theory of Futures Empathy. Futures Empathy harnesses a person's capacity for empathy in a novel way by applying it toward a future context. It consists of an iterative double looping process between self and a not yet existent future. Through imagination and reflection, foresight methods that build Futures Empathy can enhance personal connection and integration with a longer time horizon, thus overcoming presentism. By proposing a theory of Futures Empathy, we hope to contribute to better present and future relating in practice and over time across a multitude of foresight interventions. • Futures Empathy can inform present self and future self relating across all foresight practice. • Futures Empathy harnesses a person's capacity for empathy in a novel way by applying it toward a future context. • Futures Empathy can enhance personal connection and integration with a longer time horizon, overcoming presentism. • Futures Empathy consists of Future Perspective Taking and Contextual Understanding of Intergenerational Interdependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study promising areas of IT development is very important not only because it helps find competitive advantages for IT managers, but also because of the impact it makes on various aspects of economic activity, such as customers, clients, ecosystem, etc. The article in question is aimed at determining promising areas of IT development in the world by analyzing the current trends and predict researchers’ publication and patent activity. The methodological basis for the article is made up by the following: research review, analysis of general trends in the IT development, bibliometric and patent analysis, and graphic and statistical analysis. A general approach is suggested to identify promising areas of IT development in the world, the approach being comprehensive, unlike the already existing ones. The main trends in the IT development are studied by reviewing scientific literature and reports on the technological development of the industry. In particular, Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies is analyzed. The world’s technological foresights, in particular those of the EU countries, the USA, South Korea, and Japan, were analyzed, which allowed us to identify the most probable trends in the IT development in the world. The dynamics and structure of scientists’ publishing activity on the topic of “Computer Science” are analyzed according to the bibliometric indicators of the SCImago Journal & Country Rank portal, and patent applications published in the field of information technology is analyzed according to the data of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). The changes in the structure and number of publications and patent applications for the period 1996–2020 are analyzed. The most promising areas of research in the IT sphere are determined. Due to grouping the obtained results we can determine such promising areas of IT development in the world: artificial intelligence, cloud technologies, blockchain technology, information and communication technologies, big data, computing memory, chatbots, cybersecurity, language recognition, digital communication, computer networks, and IT management methods. The obtained results of the research can serve as a basis to determine the priorities of developing IT research in Ukraine.

Comparative analysis, in the light of statistical evolution indicators that characterize the innovative activity of SMEs in Bucharest, aims to outline the companies situation, over a period of almost 20 years. Analysis in dynamics, with the latest available indicators data, concerns not only the situation at the Bucharest municipality level at a certain time, but also the comparison with similar SMEs indicators with research and development-innovation (RDI) activity in Romania. Econometric approaches pursue the goal of developing appropriate models for this period and of producing short-term predictions, and the criteria for choosing the prediction accuracy, they allow us to draw pertinent conclusions. To quantify the existing situation regarding SMEs, a rather small number of indicators have been taken into account, due to the lack of their dissemination.

Abstract Foresight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the environments of uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed framework consisted of the 3 phases: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. The main stage (foresight) focused on the role of imagination and intuition in drawing the future in the experts’ minds and depicting their perceptions above perceptions in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map influenced by variables related to the subject under study in order to determine a preferable future. The use of a Z-number concept and integrating it with fuzzy cognitive maps in the foresight-oriented decision-making space, which was mainly saturated with uncertainty and ambiguity, was one of the main strengths of the proposed framework in the current investigation. The present paper focused primarily on the evolution of expert’s knowledge with regard to the topic of foresight. The role of Z-number in various processes, from data collection to illustration, analysis, and aggregation of cognitive maps, was considered for gaining knowledge and understanding into the nature of future. Moreover, an ultimate objective was realized through identifying, aggregating, and selecting the variables from each expert’s perspective and then the relationship between each variable was determined in the main stage of foresight. Finally, the proposed framework was presented and explicated in the form of a case study, which revealed satisfactory results.

Everyone has lost their footing due to the pandemic. The academic community was unprepared, leaving both professors and students bewildered and without a sense of direction. The goal at the time was to overcome the calamity of educational discontinuity. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 – Education goal aims “to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all” relative to this SDG and the surge of the pandemic, digital divide become prominent, altering the course of educational landscape in all levels across public and private institutions. In the Bicol region, education was delivered in many various forms and variability, predicting the future through strategic foresight could propel the region to a transformed future. This paper discusses in detail the status of education in the region and the possible scenarios using Jim Dator’s Future Scenario Archetypes, Causal Layered Analysis and through Scenario Planning Plus. Four plausible scenarios have surfaced in this paper: STUG-nation of Education, Unstable and Disarray of Educational elements, Flowing-restrained Education, and ORAGON Education. It requires multiple drivers as examined through the PESTEL that includes political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal aspects. This study proved useful in crafting and anticipating the future scenarios of Bicol Region’s education. Preliminary as it may, this study highlighted important building blocks of future scenarios through foresight methods. Dator’s framework was proved to be very useful in developing the four scenarios, the use of other future study tools will further amplify plausible scenarios for the education of Bicol region and beyond.

In order to address the climate crisis and provide citizens with clean, secure and affordable energy, urban energy systems need to transition. This is significant as urban energy systems are increasingly seen as complex systems for their close interactions with local urban society, while being interdependent with higher levels of governance. Decisions taken today will continue to influence the inhabitants of our cities for well over 50 years, locking in energy consumption patterns of the future. How, then, do we make decisions on the interventions needed to bring about a desirable future, and prepare for the probable and possible futures? In this paper, we consider the key characteristics of urban energy systems from a complexity science perspective in order to explore what methodologies in futures and foresight scholarship could be beneficial in supporting urban energy decision-making. To do this we have undertaken an integrative review—a method that allows review, synthesis, critique, and analysis of new and emerging topics across multiple disciplines and multiple literature types—and consider the findings in light of their usefulness in understanding complex systems, which are inherently uncertain. We consider how futures and foresight theories and methods can be applied in urban and energy studies, highlighting examples of where around the world these have been applied by organizations seeking to shape transitions. The many methods and approaches that exist under the futures' umbrella have not been applied to anywhere near their full potential in urban energy studies, despite the limitations of many of the planning and modeling exercises currently used. We use key learnings from existing futures and foresight scholarship, along with our understanding of urban energy systems as complex adaptive systems, to propose a theoretical and practical framework for exploring their futures. The framework encompasses concepts of futures, contextualization, mapping uncertainty, participatory processes, and futures governance. Although there is much further research work needed to test and operationalize this framework in an applied way with city stakeholders, we hope this charts a way forward in addressing the critical challenges faced by urban energy planners and their partners.

In order to humanize forecasting, communities have been proposed to activate and enlarge a collective ability of foresight. To better understand how communities relate to collective foresight abilities, this article untangles its critical modes, roles and social media involved. Based on a fine-grained analysis of 10 community practices, we uncovered the abilities of capturing, conceiving and designing foresights enacted in the distinct modes of creative, user and strategic communities. Discoveries included the novel abilities of conceiving foresights, a new groundbreaker role for strategic designers and specific activities of social media listening with regard to future interests. Grounded on the prime findings, we propose a framework with propositions that shape further theory development on community abilities of designing foresights. Further research directions are outlined.

The challenge of contemporary society is that of planning possible paths for the future. In the current scenario of hyperconnection, men and technologies and human and artificial intelligence are intertwined in such complex ways as to generate multiple possible futures up to the limit of the capacity of imagination. In particular, it is precisely the frontier of digital and technological changes that obliges social actors and socio-economic institutions to know how to intercept the dynamism of the transformations taking place, supporting the ability to imagine a desirable future, which goes in the intelligent direction of sustainability, of wellbeing and the ethical responsibility of one's actions. In this perspective, the reflection on the so-called future studies is inserted, which becomes a necessity, especially in times of change: If the rhythm of change increases, we need to look further, but future studies are also a philosophy of thought because the future is already part of our present life in the form of anticipation of the future; and this is all the more true as social changes are improvised and systemic complexity increasingly turbulent. Based on these statements, this study aims to analyze how the triple helix model—or rather the quintuple helix model—can be a reference paradigm for social and technological forecasting in a systemic attempt to look at the future of science, digital technology, society, economy, and their interactions, in order to promote social, economic and environmental benefits. From the social perspective, the model could provide guidance to improve the anticipatory profile of organizations and communities, helping to understand—in a short time—what the present actions will be: Predict, discover, and anticipate united in active participation, communication, knowledge, and action become so essential in the processes of production, as in the past it was the accumulation of capital, and also the ethical sensitivity begins to play an increasingly critical role.

ABSTRACTOver the past decade, various normative frameworks that aim to promote more responsible governance of research and innovation in terms of better aligning with society's demands and expectations have emerged. Among the common aspects of these normative frameworks and proposals is the reliance on foresight and/or anticipation as a key interventive dimension or instrument. The article reviews the main challenges to which anticipation has been explicitly or implicitly directed and the respective methodological approaches that have been associated with them. In doing so, the article diagnoses a fragmentation in the methodological treatment of the different challenges. Against this fragmentation, a multi-foresight methodology is proposed. The proposed methodology not only addresses the fragmentation problem by embracing the different challenges posed to foresight/anticipation for promoting more socio-politically responsible technoscientific and innovation practices, but also aims to minimise the uncritical reification of futures.

The emergence of the ability to think about future possibilities must have played an influential role in human evolution, driving a range of foresightful behaviours, including preparation, communication and technological innovation. Here we review the archeological evidence for such behavioural indicators of foresight. We find the earliest signs of hominins retaining tools and transporting materials for repeated future use emerging from around 1.8 Ma. From about 0.5 Ma onwards, there are indications of technical and social changes reflecting advances in foresight. And in a third period, starting from around 140 000 years ago, hominins appear to have increasingly relied on material culture to shape the future and to exchange their ideas about possibilities. Visible signs of storytelling, even about entirely fictional scenarios, appear over the last 50 000 years. Although the current evidence suggests that there were distinct transitions in the evolution of our capacity to think about the future, we warn that issues of taphonomy and archaeological sampling are likely to skew our picture of human cognitive evolution. This article is part of the theme issue 'Thinking about possibilities: mechanisms, ontogeny, functions and phylogeny'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Work has been continuously changing throughout history. The most severe changes to work occurred because of the industrial revolutions, and we are living in one of these moments. To allow us to address these changes as early as possible, mitigating important problems before they occur, we need to explore the future of work. As such, our purpose in this paper is to discuss the main global trends and provide a likely scenario for work in 2050 that takes into consideration the recent changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study was performed by thirteen researchers with different backgrounds divided into five topics that were analyzed individually using four future studies methods: Bibliometrics, Brainstorming, Futures Wheel, and Scenarios. As the study was done before COVID-19, seven researchers of the original group later updated the most likely scenario with new Bibliometrics and Brainstorming. Our findings include that computerization advances will further reduce the demand for low-skill and low-wage jobs; non-standard employment tends to be better regulated; new technologies will allow a transition to a personalized education process; workers will receive knowledge-intensive training, making them more adaptable to new types of jobs; self-employment and entrepreneurship will grow in the global labor market; and universal basic income would not reach its full potential, but income transfer programs will be implemented for the most vulnerable population. Finally, we highlight that this study explores the future of work in 2050 while considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the third millennium, several trends, such as the rapid rise to global superpower status of China, with its 1.4 billion habitants; the transfer of large industrial production segments from West to East (Asia) and, more recently, of the growing political and trade tensions between the USA and China; the (re)birth of nationalisms, communitarianism and autocratic regimes; and minerals and metals industry–specific sustainability issues such as greenhouse gas emissions waste production and poor social acceptance of large-scale mining projects, are threatening the mineral and metal supplies of rich OECD countries that have depended on well-functioning free markets to supply their economies' mineral and metal needs for the past few decades. These developments happen while demography, the growth of the global middle-class, urbanisation and, now, the need for a rapid transition to low-carbon energy production all concur to a further acceleration of the global demand for minerals and metals. This context leads governments and industries to pay much more attention to potential mineral supply/pricing issues, leading to the publication of mineral criticality studies, assessing the economic importance and supply risks related to specific minerals and metals, from the point of view of specific governments, economic sectors or industries. Some criticality assessments also propose future demand scenarios for selected minerals and metals, looking at the next decades, sometimes up to 2100. While these studies provide important information on current market conditions and issues, those looking at future supply and demand appear to insufficiently consider the probability of significant technology shifts that, if confirmed, would deeply impact on future demand scenarios. Three technology shifts that appear as highly probable (Li-metal batteries (including solid-state Li batteries); low/no neodymium-, praseodymium-, dysprosium- or terbium-containing permanent magnets; and composite matrix ceramics used in aircraft jet engines and gas turbines used for electricity and heat production) are highlighting the need to better integrate technology foresight in criticality assessments as such shifts are likely to have large impacts on the demand for some of the minerals and metals that are rated as highly critical in many studies (cobalt, dysprosium, graphite, neodymium, praseodymium, rhenium and tantalum), or for which demand scenarios are presented that may outstrip possible supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standard version of the doctrine of double effect, a significant doctrine in applied ethics particularly medical ethics, not only fails to capture some morally significant components of Aquinas' view, but it does not resort to proper complementary features in order to accommodate the doctrine to our moral intuitions. We attempt to offer a new formulation of the doctrine incorporating the main components of Aquinas' view and also to extend the view using some complementary features. We will examine the strength of the formulation applying it into some ethically controversial situations, mainly in medical ethics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This article studies the causes and effects of transient use of agricultural technology. Most existing studies have assumed that adoption of modern technology is irreversible, and widely ignored the switching between technologies that is often observed in practice. To more fully understand the pattern of agricultural technology adoption, this article takes switching behavior into account and develops a dynamic switching model to analyze transient technology use. The conceptual model is then calibrated and simulated using dynamic programming, and numerical results show that relative profitability, switching costs, and farmer's foresight are important influences on the pattern of transient technology use. Switching costs play a key role in preventing farmers from adopting new technologies, even when they appear otherwise profitable, and can cause farmers to switch back to traditional technologies, even when the move appears otherwise irrational. Also, smallholder farmers, differentiated based on their perception of switching costs and future economic conditions, exhibit heterogeneous decision rules and adoption patterns. Therefore, policies targeted at increasing technology adoption will be more effective if they differentiate specific types of farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Western Europe's agrifood systems are highly developed, extremely complex, and dependably produce food for billions. Securing their functionality is imperative whilst dealing with varieties of major challenges and opportunities in the future. Multiple stakeholders are involved in system transitions; therefore, synthesizing views from different scientific disciplines is essential for a robust trend analysis. Through workshops with a variety of experts, extensive research, followed by close monitoring over 5 years, we identified trends that will influence the shape of the evolving agrifood systems. Based on this, we determined which trends need addressing by agrifood research to secure the system's future functioning. We detected nine trends with 50 sub-topics that will shape the future of Western European agrifood systems, of which 5 are classified as macro- and 4 as micro-trends. Our second objective was to improve the efforts of the stakeholders in- and outside of the agrifood area to secure functioning and further improvement through giving a comprehensive overview. This contributes to enhanced strategies for sustainable and resilient agrifood systems that produce sufficient affordable nutritious food for a planetary health diet, and hence, supporting successful implementation of selected goals from the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the European Green Deal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid technological advances give rise to the development of New Technology-Based Firms (NTBFs) which are focused on technology-based business models. One of the concerns is the changing pace of technology adoption and its impact on shortening the life cycle of goods and services based on technology. Technology tends to create more integration among communities, businesses, goods, and services. This integration can be seen in the substantial increase of firms, especially NTBFs, striving to improve international relations. In this regard, addressing the sustainability dimensions in light of technological change is of universal interest. Some studies highlight the role of technology in terms of its environmental impacts, whereas others describe technology as the main driving force of businesses towards innovation, which can lead to sustainability. This paper aims to examine international NTBFs to determine the factors, key drivers, and uncertainties impacting sustainability-oriented innovations concerning their encounter with technology and ultimately plan future scenarios for international NTBFs based on sustainability-oriented innovations. The description of the scenarios shows the importance of innovation development in digital technologies and the expansion of international relations, which is realized by using digital platforms. In addition to accelerating knowledge and innovation development to gain more key partners, we would observe target market expansion, cost reduction, and sustainability growth for international NTBFs. Identifying drivers and uncertainties and the future-oriented approach of this research provide insight to International NTBFs owners into realizing sustainability-oriented innovation by increasing their awareness of the opportunities and interventions to build capacity at the conceptualization and project management levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides a philosophical analysis of the role of the synergetic paradigm in the foresight of social processes. The necessity of taking into account the factor of chance, which is a key factor in development, is revealed. The article notes that in the cognition of any developing system, especially a historical one, the need to include a time parameter in the study is required. The article draws attention to the fact that the social system is an ordered, self-governing integrity of a variety of social relations, the bearer of which is the individual and the social groups in which he is included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of the study of relevant mathematical methods and models of long-term development of the national industry is substantiated. It has been proven that causal econometric models of production are relatively simple and convenient to use in practice, as well as the most common tools for researching the long-term economic future. It was defined that the production functions, adapted to individual circumstances, proved their ability to solve the assigned tasks. However, the problem of more accurate adjustment to the features of the simulated object of research is particularly relevant in the current conditions of development of Ukraine, in the conditions of concentration of attention on certain sectors, on particular branch of industry, and in connection with the revolutionary transformations of production forces and relations, in accordance with the spread of cyber-physical technologies of the Fourth Industrial revolution. In such specific circumstances, it makes sense to ask for more sophisticated models. On the one hand, they are better, as they allow more accurate tuning of the modeled object, including by adding important factors that are outside the production system. On the other hand, they are worse because they complicate the analysis and significantly increase the number of variables needed to describe the dynamics of economic growth. In this connection, expert research methods cannot be neglected. Choosing the type of model, the range of influencing factors, possible development scenarios, etc., usually requires expert assessments (often implicit). Therefore, when analyzing longterm factors and development trends, it is important to adhere to the main methodological message of expert approaches in the construction of foresights: for long time horizons in conditions of significant uncertainty, it is appropriate to ask questions not about the calculation of the "correct future", but about the assessment of the spectrum of probable scenarios of development, expansion and rethinking its new opportunities and challenges, in particular - to avoid potentially harmful ideas and expectations, embedded in the current policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE) is one of the most important principles that should be considered in any activity, including industrial and service activities. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the role of HSE in the parameters affecting the technology foresight approach in an automotive industry. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) in an automotive industry from 2020 to 2021. The statistical population included experts, supervisors, and managers in Pars- Khodro Company (Tehran, Iran), and the study sample was 138 people. The process of conducting this study included identifying the parameters affecting the technology foresight approach in the automotive industry through a comprehensive library study and implementing FAHP through a field study. Results: The results showed that all parameters of soft and hard technology, as well as political, economic, social, and HSE factors, significantly affected the technology foresight approach in the automotive industry (P<0.001). The final normalized weights for these six parameters were 0.378, 0.163, 0.280, 0.051, 0.098, and 0.031, respectively. The incompatibility rate of the comparisons was 0.09. Conclusion: The findings indicated that soft technology is the most important factor and HSE factors are the least important one in technology transfer and foresight approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While strategic foresight is relevant for radical innovation, many companies fail to produce radical innovation despite blown-up foresight units. We take into consideration the extent of formalisation and social connectedness in a firm to consider how they moderate the effect of strategic foresight on a firm's ability to produce radical innovations. In a multi-industry study among 212 European companies, we find that formalisation and connectedness interact to enhance the effect of strategic foresight on radical innovation. When formalisation and connectedness are both high, they jointly improve a firm's ability to use strategic foresight to produce radical innovation. When social connectedness is low, high formalisation, however, reduces a firm's ability to turn foresight action into radical innovation. We discuss these findings relative to the controversial role of formalisation in radical innovation and provide managerial advice based on our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]