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Aims Hyperproinsulinaemia is associated with obesity and is a risk factor for Type 2 diabetes. We explored the dynamics of proinsulin and insulin and postprandial effects on glucose and lipids in subjects who had undergone gastric bypass (GBP) surgery compared with morbidly obese (MO) subjects and normal weight control subjects (NW). Methods Subjects free from diabetes were recruited: 10 previously MO subjects [body mass index (BMI) ± SD, 34.8 ± 6.2 kg/m2] who had undergone GBP surgery, 10 MO subjects (BMI 44 ± 3.1 kg/m2) and 12 NW control subjects (BMI 23.2 ± 2.4 kg/m2). After an overnight fast, a standard meal (2400 kJ) was ingested and glucose, proinsulin, insulin free fatty acids and triglycerides were determined up to 180 min. Results Fasting proinsulin was similar in the GBP group and NW control subjects, but threefold increased in MO subjects (P < 0.05). Postprandial AUC for glucose was similar in the three groups and AUC for proinsulin was high in MO, intermediate in the GBP group and lowest in NW control subjects (P for trend = 0.020). Postprandial proinsulin at 60 min was similar in the GBP group and MO subjects and twofold higher than in NW control subjects. Postprandial proinsulin at 180 min was normal in the GBP group, but fivefold increased in MO subjects (P = 0.008). Insulin increased rapidly at 30 min in the GBP group and was normal at 90 min, whereas insulin was still increased at 90-180 min in the MO subjects (P < 0.001). Conclusions MO subjects, free from diabetes, have elevated proinsulin concentrations in the fasting as well as the postprandial phase. After GBP surgery markedly lower fasting and postprandial proinsulin concentrations were observed, although BMI was higher compared with NW control subjects.

The least squares estimator of the slope in a simple linear regression model will be biased towards zero when the predictor is measured with random error, i.e. intra-individual variation or technical measurement error. A correction factor can be estimated from a reliability study where one replicate is available on a subset of subjects from the main study. Previous work in this field has assumed that the reliability study constitutes a random subsample from the main study.We propose that a more efficient design is to collect replicates for subjects with extreme values on their first measurement. A variance formula for this estimator of the correction factor is presented. The variance for the corrected estimated regression coefficient for the extreme selection technique is also derived and compared with random subsampling. Results show that variances for corrected regression coefficients can be markedly reduced with extreme selection. The variance gain can be estimated from the main study data. The results are illustrated using Monte Carlo simulations and an application on the relation between insulin sensitivity and fasting insulin using data from the population-based ULSAM study.In conclusion, an investigator faced with the planning of a reliability study may wish to consider an extreme selection design in order to improve precision at a given number of subjects or alternatively decrease the number of subjects at a given precision.

Context: Cross-sectional and nested case-control studies indicate a relationship between adiponectin, obesity, and coronary heart disease (CHD). Objective: Our objective was to investigate whether adiponectin could predict CHD in a population-based cohort of elderly men. Design and Setting: From 1991-1995 a baseline investigation was carried out in 832 healthy men aged 70 yr in the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM study). They were followed up to 10.4 yr using Swedish national registry data. The baseline investigation included anthropometry, blood pressure, smoking, serum lipids, a euglycemic insulin clamp, and fasting serum adiponectin. Main Outcome Measures: Main outcome measures were defined as death or first-time hospitalization for CHD (n = 116), recorded in the Cause of Death Registry or in the Hospital-Discharge Registry of the National Board of Health and Welfare, Sweden. Associations were analyzed using Cox's proportional hazards regression, presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for 1 SD increase in the predictor variable. Results: In a multivariable analysis including total cholesterol (HR, 1.24; CI, 1.02-1.50), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR, 0.72; CI, 0.58-0.89), smoking (HR, 1.39; CI, 0.91-2.14), and systolic blood pressure (HR, 1.26; CI, 1.05-1.52), serum adiponectin was associated with lower risk for CHD (HR, 0.81; CI, 0.66-0.99). The association was independent of BMI and remained significant after adjustment for insulin sensitivity index. Conclusions: In this population-based cohort of healthy men, elevated serum levels of adiponectin were associated with a lower risk for CHD. Importantly, the association between adiponectin and CHD was independent of other well-known risk factors.

OBJECTIVES: To explore whether the predictive power of mid-life ECG abnormalities and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for future stroke change over a 30-year follow-up period, and whether a repeated examination improves their predictive power. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal population-based study. PARTICIPANTS: 2,322 men aged 50 years, with a follow-up period of 30 years. 1,221 subjects were re-examined at age 70 years MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk for fatal and non-fatal stroke during three decades of follow-up. Investigations included resting ECG and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: When measured at age 50 years, ST segment depression and T wave abnormalities, together with ECG-left ventricular hypertrophy, were of importance only during the first 20 years, but regained importance when re-measured at age 70 years. Blood pressure was a significant predictor for stroke over all three decades of follow-up. In elderly people only, there is evidence that apolipoprotein A1 may protect from future stroke. CONCLUSION: Mid-life values for blood pressure and ECG abnormalities retain their predictive value over long follow-up periods even though they improved in predictive power when re-measured in elderly people. Despite lower prevalence, ECG abnormalities had greater impact at age 50 years than at age 70 years. By contrast, apolipoprotein A1 was protective for future stroke only at age 70 years.

OBJECTIVES: To find out if the presence of the metabolic syndrome increases the risk of subsequent total and cardiovascular mortality, taking into account established risk factors for cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: General population. PARTICIPANTS: A community based sample of 2322 men followed since 1970 for a maximum of 32.7 years, investigated at ages 50 and 70. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The relations of the metabolic syndrome defined by the national cholesterol education programme (NCEP) of the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute or criteria of the World Health Organization (WHO) to subsequent total and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: When adding the metabolic syndrome to models with established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and serum cholesterol) at age 50, presence of the metabolic syndrome as defined in the NCEP significantly predicted total and cardiovascular mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratios 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.58; and 1.59, 1.29 to 1.95, respectively). The metabolic syndrome added prognostic information to that of the established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (likelihood ratio tests, P < 0.0001 for both outcomes). Similar results were obtained in a subsample without diabetes or manifest cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, community based sample of middle aged men, the presence of the metabolic syndrome according to the definition of the NCEP gave long term prognostic information regarding total and cardiovascular mortality if the status of established risk factors for cardiovascular disease was known. If confirmed this may indicate clinical value in diagnosing the metabolic syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac troponin I (cTnI), a standard for detection of myocardial damage, has recently been reported to predict acute myocardial infarction or death in patients with unstable coronary heart disease (CHD). Cardiac TnI concentrations increase with age in subjects free from clinical signs of CHD, suggesting silent myocardial damage. We investigated the association between cTnI and future CHD and mortality in a community-based cohort of men. METHODS AND RESULTS: A community-based study was conducted from August 1991 to May 1995 among 1203 men in Uppsala, Sweden, aged 70 years at baseline with a follow-up of up to 10.4 years with the use of registry data (National Board of Health and Welfare, Sweden). CHD was defined with the use of data taken from the Cause of Death Registry or from first-time hospitalization for CHD as recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry. Cardiac TnI concentrations were measured blinded for outcome, in frozen baseline plasma samples, with the use of the AccuTnI from Beckman Coulter, Inc. Hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox proportional hazards are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for a 1-SD increase. In men free from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cTnI predicted death (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.46; P=0.003) or first CHD event (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.54; P=0.001) after adjustment for conventional risk factors: total and HDL cholesterol, plasma glucose, body mass index, smoking, and systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: In this first longitudinal report, cTnI was shown to predict death and first CHD event in men free from CVD at baseline, indicating the importance of silent cardiac damage in the development of CHD and mortality.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The impact of lipometabolic and glucometabolic disturbances on stroke incidence remains to be characterized in detail. We investigated relations of a comprehensive panel of baseline lipometabolic and glucometabolic variables to incident fatal and nonfatal stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), and stroke subtypes. METHODS: A community-based prospective study of 2313 middle-aged men invited to a health survey at age 50. RESULTS: During a follow-up of up to 32 years, 421 developed stroke or TIA. In Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusting for treatment with cardiovascular drugs at baseline, 1-standard deviation increases in body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, serum proinsulin, and lipoprotein(a) were associated with 11 to 35% increased risk for subsequent stroke/TIA. Electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy and smoking were also associated with a higher risk for stroke/TIA. Essentially the same variables were related to brain infarction/TIA. Higher proportions of palmitic (16:0), palmitoleic (16:1), and oleic acid (18:1) in cholesterol esters were associated with an increased risk, whereas a higher proportion of linoleic acid (18:2 n-6) was protective against stroke/TIA. Further adjusting all models also for hypertension, diabetes, the metabolic syndrome, serum cholesterol, atrial fibrillation, cardiovascular disease, smoking, and physical activity, essentially the same pattern was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Indices of an unhealthy dietary fat intake and a high serum lipoprotein (a) level predicted fatal and nonfatal stroke/TIA independently of established risk factors in a community-based sample of middle-aged men followed for 32 years.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The association between CHD and insulin sensitivity (Si) measured by the euglycaemic insulin clamp has not been examined previously. Earlier studies found a relationship between CHD and elevated plasma insulin, an analysis that may have been confounded by co-determination of proinsulin, which has evolved as a stronger predictor of CHD. The aim was to determine the longitudinal relationships between Si, intact proinsulin, 32-33 split proinsulin, specific insulin and subsequent CHD. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study of 815 men in Uppsala, Sweden, aged 70 years at baseline with a follow-up of up to 10 years. Baseline insulin sensitivity was determined by euglycaemic insulin clamp. Fasting proinsulin, 32-33 split proinsulin and specific insulin concentrations were analysed using specific two-site immunometric assays. CHD was taken as diagnosed, if stated (in the event of death) on the Cause of Death Registry, or for subjects hospitalised for the first time with CHD, if CHD was recorded in the Hospital-Discharge Registry. The associations were analysed using Cox's proportional hazards, presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with their 95% CIs for a one-SD increase in the predictor. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, Si (HR:0.80, CI:0.65-0.97) adjusted for serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, BMI and smoking predicted CHD. Intact proinsulin (HR:1.18, CI:1.01-1.38), adjusted as the model above, predicted CHD, whereas 32-33 split proinsulin (HR:1.13, CI:0.95-1.35) or specific insulin (HR:1.07, CI:0.89-1.30) did not. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Insulin resistance measured by the euglycaemic insulin clamp predicts subsequent CHD in elderly men. Proinsulin provides a better prediction of CHD than insulin.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to explore novel metabolic risk factors for development of heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: In the past decade, considerable knowledge has been gained from limited samples regarding novel risk factors for HF, but the importance of these in the general population is largely unexplored. METHODS: In a community-based prospective study of 2,321 middle-aged men free from HF and valvular disease at baseline, variables reflecting glucose and lipid metabolism and variables involved in oxidative processes were compared with established risk factors for HF (prior myocardial infarction, hypertension, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, smoking, obesity, and serum cholesterol) using Cox proportional hazards analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 29 years, 259 subjects developed HF. In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards backward stepwise model, a 1-SD increase of fasting proinsulin (hazard ratio [HR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15 to 1.66) and apolipoprotein B/A-I-ratio (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.48) increased the risk, whereas a 1-SD increase in serum beta-carotene (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.94) decreased the risk of HF. These variables also remained significant when adjusting for acute myocardial infarction during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Novel variables reflecting insulin resistance and dyslipidemia, together with a low beta-carotene level, were found to predict HF independently of established risk factors. If confirmed, our observations could have large clinical implications, as they may offer new approaches in the prevention of HF.

Background— Little is known about isolated ambulatory hypertension, a state with elevated ambulatory but normal office blood pressure (BP). This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of isolated ambulatory hypertension for cardiovascular morbidity in a population of elderly men. Methods and Results— At baseline, 24-hour ambulatory BP and metabolic and cardiac risk profiles were evaluated in 578 untreated 70-year-old men, participants of a population-based cohort. Subjects with isolated ambulatory hypertension (office BP <140/90 and daytime BP ≥135/85) and sustained hypertension (office BP ≥140/90 and daytime BP ≥135/85) had increased plasma glucose, body mass index, and echocardiographically determined left ventricular relative wall thickness compared with normotensive subjects (office BP <140/90 and daytime BP <135/85). Seventy-two cardiovascular morbid events (2.37 per 100 person-years at risk) occurred over 8.4 years of follow-up. The prognostic value of isolated ambulatory and sustained hypertension was assessed with Cox proportional hazard regression. Multivariate models adjusting for serum cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes demonstrated that both isolated ambulatory hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 2.77; 95% CI, 1.15 to 6.68) and sustained hypertension (HR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.49 to 5.82) were independent predictors of cardiovascular morbidity. In a multivariate model with continuous BP variables, ambulatory daytime systolic BP (HR for 1 SD increase, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.97) was associated with an adverse outcome independently of office systolic BP. Conclusions— In the present study, isolated ambulatory hypertension as well as sustained hypertension predicted cardiovascular morbidity. The findings suggest that 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring may disclose important prognostic information also in subjects characterized as normotensive according to office BP.

Most previous studies of associations between insulin sensitivity and common carotid artery (CCA) atherosclerosis have been conducted in small samples, have not used direct measurement of insulin sensitivity, and have yielded inconclusive results. We investigated associations of CCA intima-media thickness (IMT) and diameter (CCA-D) measured by B-mode ultrasound and insulin sensitivity measured by the euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp test together with risk factors of the insulin resistance syndrome in a community-based sample of 493 elderly men. The clamp glucose disposal rate was an independent predictor of CCA-IMT in multivariate models adjusting for blood pressure, smoking, serum cholesterol, and body mass index (1% decrease in CCA-IMT for a 1 unit increase in glucose disposal rate, P=0.009). Glucose disposal rate was significantly related to CCA-D in univariate (r=-0.11, P=0.02) but not in multivariate models. In conclusion, this study is the first to establish impaired insulin sensitivity, measured by the euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp test, as an independent predictor of CCA-IMT in a population-based sample of elderly men.

BACKGROUND: Some, but not all, studies have reported a relationship between plasma insulin and coronary heart disease (CHD). Conventional nonspecific insulin assays are also measuring various fractions of proinsulin-like molecules due to cross-reactivity. The long-term relationship between proinsulin-like molecules and CHD is largely unknown. For this reason, the longitudinal relationships between intact proinsulin, split proinsulin, specific insulin, immunoreactive insulin, and CHD, were studied in a population-based cohort of 50-year-old men (n=874), with a follow-up of 27 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fasting proinsulin-like molecule and specific-insulin concentrations were measured in plasma (stored frozen since baseline 1970 to 1973) by specific 2-site immunometric assays. Immunoreactive insulin concentrations were determined at baseline. The associations between proinsulin-like molecules, specific insulin, immunoreactive insulin, and CHD mortality (International Classification of Diseases [9th revision] codes 410 to 414) were analyzed using Cox's proportional hazards regression and presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for a 1-SD increase in a predictor variable. In the univariate analysis, intact proinsulin (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.41 to 2.01) was the strongest predictor of death from CHD. In the multivariate analysis, smoking (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.38), intact proinsulin (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.82), systolic blood pressure (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.66), and LDL/HDL cholesterol ratio (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.53) were independent predictors of CHD mortality (adjusted for body mass index, triglycerides, and fasting glucose), whereas specific insulin and immunoreactive insulin were not (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.40). The increased risk was restricted to the upper third of the proinsulin distribution. CONCLUSION: Increased proinsulin concentrations predict death and morbidity caused by CHD over a period of 27 yea

BACKGROUND:The increased risk associated with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) diagnosed echocardiographically (Echo-LVH) or electrocardiographically (ECG-LVH) is well known, but the clinically relevant question of how much additional prognostic information would be provided by echocardiographically assessing LVH if a subject's ECG-LVH and hypertension status are known has not been addressed. Methods and RESULTS:We investigated whether Echo-LVH and ECG-LVH predicted total and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity independently of each other and of other cardiovascular risk factors by using a population-based sample of 475 men investigated at age 70 with a median follow-up time of 5.2 years. Echocardiographic left ventricular mass index (LVMI) predicted total mortality (hazards ratio [HR] 1.44, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.92, for a 1-SD increase in LVMI) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.52 to 3.73) independently of ECG-LVH and other cardiovascular risk factors. ECG-LVH, defined as Cornell product >244 microV. s, predicted total mortality (HR 2.89, 95% CI 1.41 to 5.96) independently of LVMI and other cardiovascular risk factors. Thus, Echo-LVH and ECG-LVH provided complementary prognostic information, especially in hypertensive subjects. CONCLUSIONS:Echo-LVH and ECG-LVH predict mortality independently of each other and of other cardiovascular risk factors, implying that Echo-LVH and ECG-LVH in part carry different prognostic information. Therefore, to fully assess the increased risk associated with these conditions, both ECG and echocardiography should be performed.