251. Comorbidities have a limited impact on post-transplant survival in carefully selected cirrhotic patients: a population-based cohort study
- Author
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Constantine J. Karvellas, Sean M. Bagshaw, Juan G. Abraldes, Filipe S. Cardoso, Glenda Meeberg, Norman M. Kneteman, and Pedro Fidalgo
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Specialties of internal medicine ,Transplant ,Nomogram ,law.invention ,Long-term survival ,law ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Hepatology ,business.industry ,Proportional hazards model ,Retrospective cohort study ,General Medicine ,Hepatitis C ,medicine.disease ,Intensive care unit ,Risk prediction ,Surgery ,surgical procedures, operative ,Cirrhosis ,RC581-951 ,Predictive value of tests ,Cohort ,business ,Chi-squared distribution - Abstract
Background. Improving estimation of long-term survival of patients with end-stage liver disease after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) would optimize decisions on eligibility for transplant. We aimed to externally validate previously derived Charlson Comorbity Index for OLT (CCI-OLT); subsequently, we developed a new model to predict 5-year mortality after transplant. Material and methods. This single center retrospective cohort study included 524 consecutive adult cirrhotic patients who underwent OLT in 2002-2012. External validation of CCI-OLT used Kaplan-Meier method. Derivation of the new predictive model used Cox proportional hazards regression. Results. One-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative survival after OLT was 89%, 80%, and 73%, respectively. CCI-OLT was not associated with 5-year mortality after transplant (P = 0.34). We derived and internally validated a new predictive model of 5-year mortality after OLT based on six pre-transplant characteristics of patients: age, body mass index, hepatitis C, hepatic encephalopathy, intensive care unit stay at transplant, and live donor (C-index = 0.64). We further developed a nomogram to estimate individual probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival after OLT. Conclusions. In our cohort, CCI-OLT was not associated with survival following transplant. The new predictive model discriminative capacity was only modest, suggesting that pre-transplant characteristics are of limited value in predicting post-transplant outcomes in thoroughly selected patients.
- Published
- 2015