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Background Many previous studies reported secular trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality, but little is known about the possible reasons for these trends. Methods Data were obtained from Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age‐standardized rates were calculated and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were evaluated by Joinpoint regression. Age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed by age‐period‐cohort models. Results From 1973 to 2010, compared with long‐time slowly increasing trend in women, male lung cancer incidence had significantly decreased between 2001 and 2009. After that lung cancer incidence rising sharply in women (AAPC = 14.13%, 95%CI: 2.68%‐26.86%, P = .016) and similar rising trends without statistical significance in men (AAPC = 2.96, 95%CI: −2.47%‐8.69%, P = .281) between 2010 and 2014. Age‐period cohort model showed the different patterns of period effects for lung cancer incidence between men and women. The period effects for lung cancer incidence showed rising effect for women, whereas there was decline effect for lung cancer incidence for men. On the other hand, the model showed a significant period effect in both genders with a similar fashion in mortality, yielding steady falling trends during the entire study period. Conclusions The distinctive patterns of lung cancer incidence between men and women may be attributable to significant period effects, which reflected the changes in public health policies or diagnostic practices and highlighted the urgent of continued monitoring of gender‐specific risk factors for lung cancer incidence., This study found that distinctive patterns of lung cancer incidence between male and female may be attributable to significant period effects, which reflect the effectiveness of primary prevention measures and highlighted the urgent of continued monitoring of gender‐specific risk factors for lung cancer incidence.

Background: Violence is a challenging modern epidemic worldwide. Less evidence is available on the populations most affected by violence in recent decades. The aim of the study was to ecologically investigate temporal trends of the global burden of violence according to gender, age group, and socio-demographic development. Methods: Data on the age- and gender-specific rates of country-level disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to different types of violence i.e. interpersonal violence (IV), and collective violence (CV) and legal interventions were retrieved from online database provided by the global burden of diseases project. Countries were categorized according to their socio-demographic index (SDI). Incidence rate ratio (IRR) per one year was estimated according to age groups, genders and SDI categories applying Poisson regression modeling. Results: The highest decrease of the DALYs attributable to IV was observed for the under-five-years age group and then for 5–14-years in both genders, globally. Considering the CV, estimated IRRs were significant only for the under-five-years age group, which was at 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.40, per 10 years) for girls and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.21, 1.39, per 10 years) for boys. Conclusion: The rate of DALYs due to IV has been more decreasing among women and children during the recent decades. By the next 10 years, the attributed DALYs to CV would increase up to 120%. Children, adolescents and women are highly affected by CV in countries with middle-low and middle social development in the recent decades.

Tree growth trends can affect the interpretation of the response of tree-ring proxies (especially tree-ring width) to climate in the low-frequency band, which in turn may limit quantitative understanding of centennial-scale climate variability. As such, it is difficult to determine if long-term trends in tree-ring measurements are caused by age-dependent growth effects or climate. Here, a trend similarity ranking method is proposed to define the range of tree growth effects on tree-ring width chronologies. This method quantifies the inner and outer boundaries of the tree growth effect following two extreme standardization methods: curve fitting standardization and regional curve standardization. The trend similarity ranking method classifies and detrends tree-ring measurements according to the ranking similarity between the regional growth curve and their long-term trends through curve fitting. This standardization process mainly affects the secular trend in tree-ring chronologies, and has no effect on their inter-annual to multi-decadal variations. Applications of this technique to the Yamal and Torneträsk tree-ring width datasets and the maximum latewood density dataset from northern Scandinavia reveals that multi-centennial and millennial-scale temperature variations in the three regions provide substantial positive contributions to the linear warming trends in the instrumental period, and that the summer warming rate during the 20th century is not unprecedented over the past two millennia in any of the three regions.

Over the previous decades, the prevalence of pediatric obesity has been increased in Korea as well as worldwide. Pediatric obesity is associated with comorbidities in childhood and adulthood. We reviewed the prevalence of pediatric obesity using data from the National School Health Examination (NSHE) and the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). Obesity was defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2; BMI ≥95th percentile for the corresponding sex and age in the 2007 growth charts for the NSHE; or BMI ≥95th percentile for the corresponding sex and age in the 2017 growth charts for the KNHANES. There was a slight discrepancy in the prevalence of obesity depending on the data source. The prevalence of obesity increased from 8.7% in 2007 to 15.0% in 2017 in the NSHE (in children aged 6–18 years) and from 8.6% in 2001 to 9.8% in 2017 in the KNHANES (in children aged 2–18 years). The increase in the prevalence of obesity was higher in boys and high school students. Accurate epidemiologic data analyzed using the new 2017 growth charts are essential in developing strategies for controlling obesity. Efforts to collect more reliable nationally representative data, including longitudinal studies, are warranted.

The aim of this study was to investigate inter-generational changes in selected mid-upper-arm measurements of boys from Kolkata, India. The analysis was based on the anthropometric measurements of two cohorts of Bengali boys aged 7–16 from middle-class families, in 1982–83 and 2005–11. The two cohorts were compared in terms of their mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) and mid-upper-arm area (MUAA), mid-upper-arm muscle area (MUAMA), mid-upper-arm fat area (MUAFA) and Arm Fat Index (AFI). The significances of the differences were determined using two-way ANOVA. All features differed significantly between the examined cohorts and all showed a general positive secular trend. In most cases, the biggest differences were noted for 14- and 16-year olds and the smallest for the youngest boys. The contemporary boys seemed to have more favourable overall developmental conditions, probably related to socioeconomic progress in India over recent decades.

Background: Weight can be adjusted for height using the Benn parameter (kg/mB), where B is the power that minimises the correlation with height. Aim: To investigate how the Benn parameter changes across age (10–65 years) and time (1956–2015) and differs between sexes. Subjects and methods: The sample comprised 49,717 individuals born in 1946, 1958, 1970 or 2001. Cross-sectional estimates of the Benn parameter were produced and cohort differences at ages 10/11 and 42/43 years were examined using linear regression. Multilevel modelling was used to develop trajectories showing how the Benn parameter changed over age from childhood to mid-adulthood in the three older cohorts. Results: The Benn parameter was closest to 2 in childhood but consistently lower across adulthood, particularly in females and the most recent cohort. At ages 10/11 years, the Benn parameter was greater than 3 in both sexes in the 2001 cohort but between 2.2 and 2.7 in the three older cohorts. This difference was estimated to be +0.67 (0.53, 0.81) in males and +0.53 (0.38, 0.68) in females, compared to the 1946 cohort, and was driven by a much higher weight SD in the 2001 cohort. Conversely, at ages 42/43 years, the Benn parameter was lowest in the 1970 cohort due to a slightly lower weight-height correlation. This difference was estimated to be −0.12 (−0.34, 0.10) in males and −0.15 (−0.42, 0.13) in females, compared to the 1946 cohort. Conclusions: Changes over time in the obesogenic environment appear to have firstly reduced the Benn parameter due to a lowering of the weight-height correlation but secondly and more drastically increased the Benn parameter due to increasing weight variation.

AIM To present specific reference values for cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in children with obesity and to analyse secular trends of CRF in the studied population. METHODS Cardiorespiratory fitness, the maximal oxygen uptake (VO2 max), was estimated with the Astrand-Rhyming submaximal bicycle test, in 705 Swedish children (356 girls, 8-20 years) with obesity according to the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). Data were collected from 1999 to 2013. Secular trends, analysed with multiple linear regression, were adjusted for age, height and body mass index standard deviation score (BMI SDS). RESULTS All children had low CRF compared with normal weight standards but there was a marked variability of CRF in children with obesity, which was possible to quantify with the developed obesity specific CRF reference values. The mean value of absolute VO2 max (L/min) increased with age and relative VO2 max (mL/kg/min) decreased with age in both boys and girls. There was a negative secular trend in both sexes (P

Background All life on earth has adapted to the effects of changing seasons. The general and ESKD populations exhibit seasonal rhythms in physiology and outcomes. The ESKD population also shows secular trends over calendar time that can convolute the influences of seasonal variations. We conducted an analysis that simultaneously considered both seasonality and calendar time to isolate these trends for cardiovascular, nutrition, and inflammation markers. Methods We used data from adult patients on hemodialysis (HD) in the United States from 2010 through 2014. An additive model accounted for variations over both calendar time and time on dialysis. Calendar time trends were decomposed into seasonal and secular trends. Bootstrap procedures and likelihood ratio methods tested if seasonal and secular variations exist. Results We analyzed data from 354,176 patients on HD at 2436 clinics. Patients were 59±15 years old, 57% were men, and 61% had diabetes. Isolated average secular trends showed decreases in pre-HD systolic BP (pre-SBP) of 2.6 mm Hg (95% CI, 2.4 to 2.8) and interdialytic weight gain (IDWG) of 0.35 kg (95% CI, 0.33 to 0.36) yet increases in post-HD weight of 2.76 kg (95% CI, 2.58 to 2.97). We found independent seasonal variations of 3.3 mm Hg (95% CI, 3.1 to 3.5) for pre-SBP, 0.19 kg (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.20) for IDWG, and 0.62 kg (95% CI, 0.46 to 0.79) for post-HD weight as well as 0.12 L (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.14) for ultrafiltration volume, 0.41 ml/kg per hour (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.45) for ultrafiltration rates, and 3.30 (95% CI, 2.90 to 3.77) hospital days per patient year, which were higher in winter versus summer. Conclusions Patients on HD show marked seasonal variability of key indicators. Secular trends indicate decreasing BP and IDWG and increasing post-HD weight. These methods will be of importance for independently determining seasonal and secular trends in future assessments of population health.

Most public companies incorporate in Delaware. Is this because they prefer its legal system or are they simply following a trend? Using the incorporation histories of over 22,000 public companies from 1930 to 2010, I show that firms are more influenced by changes in each other's decisions than by changes in the law. The analysis exploits an unexpected legal shock that increased Delaware's long run share from 30 to 74 percent. I attribute most of this change to a cascading effect in which the decisions of past firms successively influence future cohorts. Delaware firms also enjoyed abnormal returns precisely during those years in which the Delaware network grew most. I conclude that network effects dominate secular trends in corporate governance.

I approximate the interest that value investing attracts through the frequency with which terms such as “book to market ratio” appear in the corpus of books scanned by Google. Following the years in which investor interest in value is relatively high, the realized value premium is found to be below average. On the other hand, there is no evidence that secular trends in interest have an impact on the value premium. The results therefore do not support the hypothesis that the value effect disappears once investors have become aware of it.

Summary Background/Objectives The aims were to study the presence of a secular trend in (a) age at peak height velocity (PHV), (b) velocity at PHV, and (c) duration of skeletal maturation in relation to PHV. Material/Method Two groups of children: 100 children (63 boys, 37 girls) born between 1969–1973 and 71 children (49 boys, 22 girls) born between 1996 and 2000, were compared. Age and velocity at PHV were measured on individual growth velocity curves. Skeletal maturation stages were assessed on hand-wrist radiographs, and duration from the skeletal maturation stages to PHV was determined. Results Age at PHV occurred significantly earlier (0.47 years, CI 95% 0.19–0.76, P < 0.001), and velocity at PHV was significantly higher (0.68 cm/year, CI 95% 1.47–2.06, P < 0.003) in children born 1996–2000 compared to 1969–1973. No significant difference in duration of skeletal maturation was seen between the groups. Skeletal maturation stages occurred significantly in the following order before PHV for both genders: PP2= 2.18 years (P = 0.002), MP3= 1.60 year (P = 0.008), S 1.07 year (P = 0.003), and MP3cap 0.38 year (P = 0.037). Limitations Most radiographs were taken before PHV, the duration thus mainly reflects the early event of pubertal growth spurt. Conclusion A secular trend was evident: significantly decreased age at PHV and significantly increased velocity at PHV. No evidence of a secular trend regarding duration of the skeletal maturation in relation to PHV was found. Due to the declining age at PHV, the skeletal maturation stages occurred earlier in relation to chronological age.

Secular trends in humidification in seven southern regions of the European part of Russia were investigated. Land degradation trend was assessed based on satellite albedo data at the beginning of the current century. Mutual compensation of intra-centuries fluctuations of the aridity index drives to the stability of arid zones in drylands. The insignificance of linear trend of the aridity index for the period 1901-2012 does not confirm the hypothesis of systematic strengthening of the aridization under ongoing global warming. The analysis of dry and wet years’ groups of the different duration revealed the decrease of the frequency of spring droughts, and their intensity achieved the maximum in 1981-1990. Frequency and intensity of summer droughts increased during the periods corresponding to the groups of growing aridization years. In the progress absence in aridization of drylands of the European part of Russia for more than 100 years, increased land degradation becomes the dominant factor of desertification.

Critical frequency foF2 long-term trends at Dakar station (14.4°N, 342.74°E) located near the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly EIA, are analysed taking into account geomagnetic activity, increasing greenhouse gases concentration and Earth’s magnetic field secular variation. After filtering solar activity effect using F10.7 as a solar activity proxy, we determined the relative residual trends slopes α values for three different levels of geomagnetic activity. For example, at 1200 LT, the value of α goes from &#450.27%/year for very magnetically quiet days to -0.19%/year for magnetically quiet days and to -0.13%/year for all days. It appears from the slopes α obtained, that they increase with the level of geomagnetic activity and their negative values are qualitatively consistent with the expected decreasing trend due to the increase in greenhouse gases concentration but are greater than 0.003%/year which would result from a 20% increase in CO2 emissions which actually took place during the analysis period. Regarding Earth’s magnetic field magnitude, B secular variation and the dip equator secular movement, Dakar station is located near the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly, Earth’s magnetic field magnitude, B decreases there and the trough approaches the position of Dakar during the period of analysis. These two phenomena induce a decrease in foF2 which is in agreement with the decreasing trend observed at this station.

Background/Objective: Sport university students are a unique population because they usually have a strong sport background since early childhood. In this study, we aimed to examine secular trends in grip strength of male, first-year sport university students in comparison with the general population between 1973 and 2016. Methods: Existing data on the grip strength of 6,308 sport university students aged 18 years were examined. The data were obtained from the Juntendo Fitness Plus Study, a study of the Department of Physical Education/Health and Sports Science of Juntendo University. For reference, age- and sex-matched data (18 years old, male) on the grip strength were obtained from a national database. Results: Compared with the general population, the sport university students had greater body mass index and stronger grip strength at all times. Conclusions: The grip strength of sport university students significantly declined between the 1980s and 1990s, and it has plateaued since 2000, albeit at low levels. Compared with the peak performance of sport university students in 1984, the grip strength of students in 2016 was significantly lower by 8.1 kg. The downward trends were also confirmed in the general population during the same periods. In conclusion, the grip strength of sport university students has significantly declined over the last few decades. Keywords: Body size, College student, Japanese, Muscular fitness, Temporal changes, Young people

Trends in body size in young men and women in the early 21st century were analyzed based on the results of anthropometric examination of more than 6300 undergraduate students of various departments of Moscow State University that were obtained in 2000–2018. The retrospective analysis was conducted by comparing data of total body dimensions collected based on a sample of Moscow youth examined in different years since the 1920s. The observations of 17–18-year-old young men and women demonstrated an increase in height during the last 80 years until the beginning of the 21st century in Moscow. This parameter was noted to be relatively stable in both sexes since the beginning of 2000s until present. Against the background of the secular increase in body weight, which continues at present, some sex differences in growth dynamics of this index were observed. From the microevolutionary prospect, the noted tendencies could be explained as a result of changing lifestyle in modern human populations. Along with secular changes in body size, both sexes were observed to have concomitant changes of head and face dimensions, which were probably related to debrachycephalization (decrease in cephalic index) and a tendency toward leptoprosopia (increase in facial index). The observed patterns of secular (cross-generational) changes in morphological characteristic of modern youth can reflect socio-economic processes occurring in society and could be of great importance for fundamental studies in biology and sociology as well as for preventive medicine.

Childhood obesity epidemic is a worldwide public health problem, but recent studies show a stabilization trend. To study the prevalence of overweight and obesity in school-age children from a Medit...

A marine sediment core from the western Mediterranean provides a newhigh-resolution 4,500-year record of palaeomagnetic secular variation and relativepalaeointensity. In 2013, the 7.1-metre C5 core was recovered from the TyrrhenianSea as part of the NextData climate data project. The coring site, 15 km offshorefrom the Volturno river mouth, is well-located to record combined marine andterrestrial palaeoclimatic influences, and the fine-grained, rapidly deposited sedimentsare effective palaeomagnetic recorders. We investigate the palaeomagnetic field direction and strength recorded in the core, which provide a valuable high-resolution recordof Holocene geomagnetic variation in the area. Using rock magnetic techniques,we constrain the magnetic mineralogy of the studied sediments and confirm theirsuitability for palaeomagnetic analysis. Palaeomagnetic declination and inclinationrecords were determined by stepwise alternating-field demagnetization, and relativepalaeointensity estimates were obtained based on normalization to anhysterestic andisothermal remanent magnetization and to magnetic susceptibility. The age of the coreis well-constrained with a tephro- and biostratigraphic age model, and its magneticrecords are compared with relevant core and model data for the region, demonstratingthat our record is compatible with previous results from the area. An automated curvematching approach is applied to assess the compatibility of our data with the existingsecular variation path for the Mediterranean area.

Significant political and economic transformations took place on the territory of contemporary Russia in the first part of the 20th century. We hypothesized that they would have affected male growth curve negatively. To test this idea, the dataset was collected to present the graph, which illustrates the changes in male body height during the 20th century. We searched for bibliographic sources with information about body height of men and women born during the 20th century, with full description of measurement methodology, sample design and significant geographical distribution of the dataset covering more than 15 territories of the country – cities or regions. Such criteria were met only for men. We found only 8 sources that could be considered reliable in the research. The observed graph confirms positive changes in male body height on the territory of the European part of contemporary Russia: for those, who were born in 1900‘s it was 166.1 cm, in 1920s – 166.5 cm, in 1940s – 171 cm, in 1960s – 174.8 cm and in 1980s the indicator reached 176.1 cm. No significant negative changes in this indicator have been found during the studied period. The primary hypothesis that political and socio-economic transformations affect male growth curve negatively was confirmed only partly. We concluded that unfavorable political and socio-economic events (such as revolutions, World War I and World War II, purges and famines) influenced the pace of body height increase in men. While the main period of secular trend was fixed in the first decades of the 20th century in Germany, Netherlands and France, in this part of Russia it occurred later, in 1930–1960s. However, the total increase in male height was very similar for all mentioned territories (9–11 cm) during 1900–1980’s.

What is already known about this topic? The incidence of female lung cancer in China has been rising, whereas the incidence ratio among men and women is declining. The rising trend of female lung cancer is a prominent public health concern for China. What is added by this report? The joint secular trends distribution of the incidence, mortality, and years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death of lung cancer in Chinese women demonstrated a certain regionality, which implied the risk factors for female lung cancer in China might be different by region. Common determinant risk factors may exist in regions sharing the same joint secular trends. What are the implications for public health practice? The secular trends and the regional pattern of the trends of female lung cancer in China suggested that the prevention and control of female lung cancer should be implemented with targeted regional interventions.

Background Current trends in serum lipid levels among children are likely to be important predictors of future cardiovascular disease prevalence. However, no studies have examined trends in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels in Japanese children. Methods We investigated trends in LDL-C levels from 2008 through 2017 and HDL-C levels from 2007 through 2017 in a population of 10- and 13-year-old children in Fukuroi City, Japan. We analyzed 17,838 children, accounting for 93.8% of all fifth and eighth graders in the entire city. Adverse lipid levels were defined as follows: 130 mg/dL or higher for LDL-C, and lower than 40 mg/dL for HDL-C. The Jonckheere-Terpstra and Cochran-Armitage tests were used to evaluate secular trends in mean serum lipid levels and prevalence of dyslipidemia, respectively. Results There were no significant trends in BMI during the study period. In children aged 10 years, serum levels of LDL-C and HDL-C showed significant positive associations with calendar year during the study period for both sexes. A significant increase in HDL-C levels was observed in girls aged 13 years. On the other hand, no significant trends were observed in the prevalence of high LDL-C or low HDL-C regardless of sex or age, while the prevalence of high non-HDL-C showed a significant increase in boys. Conclusions In the Fukuroi population, serum levels of LDL-C and HDL-C slightly increased in both boys and girls aged 10 years, and HDL-C levels slightly increased in girls aged 13 years, during the past decade.

A spherical harmonic model of the magnetic field of Jupiter is obtained from vector magnetic field observations acquired by the Juno spacecraft during 32 of its first 33 polar orbits. These Prime Mission orbits sample Jupiter's magnetic field nearly uniformly in longitude (∼11° separation) as measured at equator crossing. The planetary magnetic field is represented with a degree 30 spherical harmonic and the external field is approximated near the origin with a simple external spherical harmonic of degree 1. Partial solution of the underdetermined inverse problem using generalized inverse techniques yields a model (“JRM33”) of the planetary magnetic field with spherical harmonic coefficients reasonably well determined through degree and order 13. Useful information regarding the field extends through degree 18, well fit by a Lowes' spectrum with a dynamo core radius of 0.81 Rj, presumably the outer radius of the convective metallic hydrogen region. This new model provides a most detailed view of a planetary dynamo and evidence of advection of the magnetic field by deep zonal winds in the vicinity of the Great Blue Spot (GBS), an isolated and intense patch of flux near Jupiter's equator. Comparison of the JRM33 and JRM09 models suggests secular variation of the field in the vicinity of the GBS during Juno's nearly 5 years of operation in orbit about Jupiter. The observed secular variation is consistent with the penetration of zonal winds to a depth of ∼3,500 km where a flow velocity of ∼0.04 ms−1 is required to match the observations.

Over the last four decades, the U.S. economy has experienced a few secular trends, each of which may be considered undesirable in some aspects: declining labor share; rising profit share; rising income and wealth inequalities; and rising household sector leverage and associated financial instability. We develop a real business cycle model and show that the rise of market power of the firms in both product and labor markets over the last four decades can generate all of these secular trends. We derive macroprudential policy implications for financial stability.

Objective To evaluate secular trends in 10-year risk of incident cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), in incident RA relative to the general population. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of a population-based incident cohort with RA onset from 1997 to 2004 in British Columbia, Canada, with matched general population controls (2:1), using administrative health data. RA and general population cohorts were divided according to year of RA onset, defined according to the first RA visit of the case definition. Incident CVA was defined as the first CVA occurring within 10 years from the first RA visit. Secular trend was assessed using delayed-entry Cox models with a two-way interaction term between the year of RA onset and indicator of RA vs general population. Linear, quadratic and spline functions of year of RA onset were compared with assess non-linear effects. The model with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion was selected. Results Overall, 23 545 RA and 47 090 general population experienced 658 and 1220 incident CVAs, respectively. A spline Cox model with a knot at year of onset 1999 was selected. A significant decline in risk of CVA was observed in individuals with RA onset after 1999 [0.90 (0.86, 0.95); P = 0.0001]. The change in CVA risk over time differed significantly in RA with onset from 1999 onwards compared with the general population (P-value of interaction term = 0.03), but not before 1999 (P = 0.06). Conclusion Our findings suggest that people with RA onset from 1999 onwards, had a significantly greater decline in 10-year risk of CVA compared with the general population.

Introduction: It was previously found that age of sexual maturity during the last two decades has declined. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether chronologic age, dental age and skeletal developmental stage at onset of orthodontic treatment have changed during the last few decades in the same manner. In addition, to find out whether correlations exist between these ages. Such changes might have implications on clinical orthodontic practice. Methods: Panoramic and lateral cephalometric radiographs of 300 adolescents (139 males, 161 females) who began their orthodontic treatment during the years 1990-1992 or 2010-2012 (152 and 148 subjects, respectively) were examined. Chronologic, dental and skeletal ages were determined and compared between the two groups and correlations between these ages were calculated. Results: Mean chronologic age was 12.26 ± 1.22 years during 1990-1992 and 12.63 ± 1.64 during 2010-2012 (p=0.028). Mean dental age was 12.27 years ± 1.88 during 1990-1992 and 13.02 ± 2.20 during 2010-2012 (p=0.002). Mean skeletal developmental stage of subjects was 2.68 ± 1.60 during 1990-1992 and 2.99 ± 1.75 during 2010-2012 (p>0.1). Significant correlations were found between chronologic, dental and skeletal ages. Conclusions: Although no significant change of skeletal developmental stage upon commencing orthodontic treatment has occurred over the last two decades, both chronologic and dental ages have increased, particularly for females. There is significant correlation between chronologic, dental and skeletal ages for the entire group, particularly for females.

Introduction: The health-related physical fitness (HRPF) show an inverse association with several cardiovascular risk factors in young people, however, a few studies have investigate the changes of HRF indicators throughout a determined period. Objective: To check the secular trend of HRPF indicators in children of seven to 10 years old. Methods: were analyzed 1.136 subjects with seven to 10 years in three-time period (2002, 2005, 2010-2011). The HRPF tests were: sit-and-reach (SR), abdominal resistance (AB), 9 min walk/run test (9min) and the body adiposity by skinfold sum (?SF). The classification of the HRPF indicators were made by the Physical Best cut off point. The ANCOVA test (controlled by BMI, height, ?SF) compared the difference of the HRPF indicators amongst the three-time period. Results: The boys presented 6% of decrease in the flexibility between 2010 and 2002 period; no significance was found in the AB test; children of both sexes presented higher values in the 9min test on 2005 period. Conclusion: It was concluded that there was a negative secular trend for an HRPF, and gifts were the results in 2010 were compared as their peers (2002-2005) to an HRPF group, in both sexes, except for abdominal strength and endurance.

Each International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model released under the auspices of the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy comprises a secular variation component that describes the evolution of the main magnetic field anticipated for the 5 years to come. Every Gauss coefficient, up to spherical harmonic degree and order 8, is assumed to undergo its own independent linear evolution. With a mathematical model of the core magnetic field and its time rate of change constructed from geomagnetic observations at hand, a standard prediction of the secular variation (SV) consists of taking the time rate of change of each Gauss coefficient at the final time of analysis as the predicted rate of change. The last three generations of the IGRF have additionally witnessed a growing number of candidate SV models relying upon physics-based forecasts. This surge is motivated by satellite data that now span more than two decades and by the concurrent progress in the numerical modelling of Earth’s core dynamics. Satellite data reveal rapid (interannual) geomagnetic features whose imprint can be detrimental to the quality of the IGRF prediction. This calls for forecasting frameworks able to incorporate at least part of the processes responsible for short-term geomagnetic variations. In this letter, we perform a retrospective analysis of the performance of past IGRF SV models and candidates over the past 35 years; we emphasize that over the satellite era, the quality of the 5-year forecasts worsens at times of rapid geomagnetic changes. After the definition of the time scales that are relevant for the IGRF prediction exercise, we cover the strategies followed by past physics-based candidates, which we categorize into a “‘core–surface flow” family and a “dynamo” family, noting that both strategies resort to “input” models of the main field and its secular variation constructed from observations. We next review practical lessons learned from our previous attempts. Finally, we discuss possible improvements on the current state of affairs in two directions: the feasibility of incorporating rapid physical processes into the analysis on the one hand, and the accuracy and quantification of the uncertainty impacting input models on the other hand.

This study considers year-to-year and decadal variations in as well as secular trends of the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period, as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCATv2021 database. In a first step, we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinks to local interannual anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), the temporal changes in SST (dSST/dt), and squared wind speed (u2), employing a multi-linear regression. In the tropical Pacific, we find interannual variability to be dominated by dSST/dt, as arising from variations in the upwelling of colder and more carbon-rich waters into the mixed layer. In the eastern upwelling zones as well as in circumpolar bands in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, we find sensitivity to wind speed, compatible with the entrainment of carbon-rich water during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and wind-driven upwelling. In the Southern Ocean, the secular increase in wind speed leads to a secular increase in the carbon source into the mixed layer, with an estimated reduction in the sink trend in the range of 17 % to 42 %. In a second step, we combined the result of the multi-linear regression and an explicitly interannual pCO2-based additive correction into a “hybrid” estimate of the sea–air CO2 flux over the period 1957–2020. As a pCO2 mapping method, it combines (a) the ability of a regression to bridge data gaps and extrapolate into the early decades almost void of pCO2 data based on process-related observables and (b) the ability of an auto-regressive interpolation to follow signals even if not represented in the chosen set of explanatory variables. The “hybrid” estimate can be applied as an ocean flux prior for atmospheric CO2 inversions covering the whole period of atmospheric CO2 data since 1957.

BACKGROUND: Globally, 80% of cardiovascular disease (CVD) occur in low-income /middle-income countries. High blood pressure (BP), a major risk factor for CVD, has its origins in early-life. We investigated how age trajectories of BP (childhood to late-adolescence) have changed recently in China and the mediating roles of physical growth. METHODS: Using the longitudinal data on 3785 children from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991-2015, we estimated mean BP trajectories (7-18 years) for cohorts born in 1981-1985, 1986-1990, 1991-1995 and 1996-2000 using random effect models. Models were adjusted for BMI and/or height growth to assess their impact on BP trends. RESULTS: BP trajectories shifted upwards across cohorts. Compared with the earliest cohort, mean BP was higher in the latest cohort throughout childhood to late adolescence. For example, the increment in SBP was 4.4 mmHg (95% confidence interval: 2.9-5.8) in boys and 4.0 mmHg (2.6-5.5) in girls at 9 years, narrowed slightly during adolescence, and was 3.0 mmHg (0.7-5.4) and 2.6 mmHg (0.4-4.8) respectively at 17 years. BMI and height trajectories also shifted upwards. The overall increment was greater for height than BMI. When adjusting for physical growth, the increment in BP trajectories reduced (more for height than BMI), but remained in childhood (P