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Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The level of invasion (number or proportion of invasive species) in a given area depends on features of the invaded community, propagule pressure, and climate. In this study, we assess the invasive flora of nine islands in the West Indies to identify invasion patterns and evaluate whether invasive species diversity is related to geographical, ecological, and socioeconomic factors. We compiled a database of invasive plant species including information on their taxonomy, origin, pathways of introduction, habitats, and life history. This database was used to evaluate the similarity of invasive floras between islands and to identify invasion patterns at regional (West Indies) and local (island) scales. We found a total of 516 alien plant species that are invasive on at least one of the nine islands studied, with between 24 to 306 invasive species per island. The invasive flora on these islands includes a wide range of taxonomic groups, life forms, and habitats. We detected low similarity in invasive species diversity between islands, with most invasive species (>60%) occurring on a single island and 6% occurring on at least five islands. To assess the importance of different models in predicting patterns of invasive species diversity among islands, we used generalized linear models. Our analyses revealed that invasive species diversity was well predicted by a combination of island area and economic development (gross domestic product per capita and kilometers of paved roadways). Our results provide strong evidence for the roles of geographical, ecological, and socioeconomic factors in determining the distribution and spread of invasive species on these islands. Anthropogenic disturbance and economic development seem to be the major drivers facilitating the spread and predominance of invasive species over native species.

Although research on human-mediated exchanges of species has substantially intensified during the last centuries, we know surprisingly little about temporal dynamics of alien species accumulations across regions and taxa. Using a novel database of 45,813 first records of 16,926 established alien species, we show that the annual rate of first records worldwide has increased during the last 200 years, with 37% of all first records reported most recently (1970-2014). Inter-continental and inter-taxonomic variation can be largely attributed to the diaspora of European settlers in the nineteenth century and to the acceleration in trade in the twentieth century. For all taxonomic groups, the increase in numbers of alien species does not show any sign of saturation and most taxa even show increases in the rate of first records over time. This highlights that past efforts to mitigate invasions have not been effective enough to keep up with increasing globalization.

Early plant stages may be the most vulnerable within the life cycle of plants especially in arid ecosystems. Interference from exotic species may exacerbate this condition. We evaluated germination, seedling survival and growth in the endangered Caribbean cactus Harrisia portoricensis, as a function of sunlight exposure (i.e., growing under open and shaded areas), different shade providers (i.e., growing under two native shrubs and one exotic grass species), two levels of predation (i.e., exclusion and non-exclusion) and variable microenvironmental conditions (i.e., temperature, PAR, humidity). Field experiments demonstrated that suitable conditions for germination and establishment of H. portoricensis seedling are optimal in shaded areas beneath the canopy of established species, but experiments also demonstrated that the identity of the shade provider can have a significant influence on the outcome of these processes. Harrisia portoricensis seedlings had higher probabilities of survival and grew better (i.e., larger diameters) when they were transplanted beneath the canopy of native shrubs, than beneath the exotic grass species, where temperature and solar radiation values were on average much higher than those obtained under the canopies of native shrubs. We also detected that exclusion from potential predators did not increase seedling survival. Our combined results for H. portoricensis suggested that the modification of microenvironmental conditions by the exotic grass may lower the probability of recruitment and establishment of this endangered cactus species.

Traits associated with self-pollination are common features of island plant communities. In this work, we studied the pollination biology and the breeding system of Harrisia portoricensis, an island columnar cactus, to test for the presence of inbreeding and inbreeding depression. For H. portoricensis, which bears flowers with typical outcrossing morphology, the results from 322 h of direct observations and videotaping showed that visits to flowers by animals were uncommon. Controlled pollinations demonstrated that H. portoricensis has a partially self-compatible breeding system that it is not autogamous and thus requires an external mechanism for the movement of pollen to set fruit. We detected differences in seed size, seed mass, germination success, and multiplicative fitness estimates between self- and cross-pollination treatments. We found that progeny resulting from natural and self-pollination treatments showed signs of inbreeding depression compared with progeny resulting from cross-pollination; however, the magnitude of the inbreeding depression was less than 50%. Our combined results suggest that for this species an endogamous breeding system should be favored by natural selection.