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This paper is concerned with research issues that must be faced in assessing the potential subnational effects of proposed income maintenance programs. The paper is divided into discussions of four major tasks that must be performed by policy analysts. The first is simply to list program provisions that may have important subnational effects, either directly or by changing the behavioral patterns of participating families. The second task is to construct a set of socioeconomic indicators whereby these effects can be gauged in a manner readily comprehensible to policymakers. The third task is to develop a theoretical framework appropriate for analyzing these effects systematically. The fourth task involves actually obtaining the information necessary to predict the changes in the socioeconomic indicators that would result from adoption of the proposed income maintenance alternatives under consideration. Successful completion of these tasks depend on resolving a set of fundamental research issues that do not change as the geographic dimension of primary interest varies. Thus, although all the topics discussed in this paper are relevant to assessing the potential subnational implications of alternative income maintenance programs, many are equally pertinent to examining potential national effects. (Author/JM)

Although some comparisons among three diverse cities were made, the three cities were selected precisely because they represented diverse clusters of urban problems. San Jose, California, was the scene of very rapid growth for more than a decade. St. Louis, Missouri, on the other hand, contained the prototypical problems of a declining central city, including one of the highest rates of building and neighborhood abandonment in the U.S. Seattle, Washington, represented a metropolitan area responding favorably to a strong exogenous shock. Under the high unemployment caused by aircraft industry lay-offs during the late sixties and early seventies, the economy showed unexpected resilience. Rand's research in San Jose, Seattle, and St. Louis represents work done in the first year of what was conceived to be a five-to-seven year research program during which 12 to 15 cities would be studied in depth. The intent of the research effort was to create a frame work that could guide policy decisions at (ultimately) all levels of government. Comparisons that could be made among these three quite diverse cities related to the topics of major urban policies, constraints on local officials, the people versus territory issue, and other conceptual comparisons. (Author/JM)

This report focuses on the increasingly widespread concern over the ability of local government to exert sufficient leverage on population, economic, and spatial growth to make a difference in what happens and to do so in a way so as to effect agreed-upon public policies. Concern over the ability of local governments to manage urban growth and change is important for two reasons--for the rapidly growing concern over growth and subsequent costs, and for concern over the ability of local government institutions to actually function effectively in an area where they are usually held responsible. Two issues are addressed in this report. The first is the extent to which the collection of local governments in a metropolitan area is able to manage urban development. The site for the investigation and the principal source of data and observation is the San Jose Metropolitan Statistical Area--Santa Clara County, California. The second issue is the extent to which a single municipality within the metropolitan area can exert management control over development within and at its boundaries. This report is intended as a means for developing testable hypotheses about relationships among key variables determining the ability of local governments in a metropolitan area to affect, in a significant way, urban growth and change. (Author/JM)

The intent of this paper is to illustrate that within the feminist movement there are sub groups that have to be examined if the movement is to be successful. With the heightened consciousness of women across the nation and the increased competition for the scarce number of well-paying, meaningful jobs, it is important that minorities understand not only each other, but also the scope and implications of the feminist movement. Sexism has been of secondary importance to ethnic minority women because of the overshadowing effects of the racist behavior they have been forced to endure. A woman is not just seen as a female in the labor market, but is perceived as part of a specific racial group. If unemployment rates for Black teenagers are examined separately, it is apparent that this group is even more severely disadvantaged than minority teenagers as a whole. If individual income is examined, it is found that minority women are at the bottom of the ladder. Such examples illustrate that in the labor market the problems of ethnic minorities (women) are compounded. Extensive research is needed in order to gain significant data in areas such as those discussed. This information is also relevant with respect to the formulation of strategies and the implementation of programs in the struggle for women's rights. (Author/JM)

This report surveys the first generation of theoretical and empirical research on the determinants of parent "demand" for children. A large fraction of this literature was first published as Rand reports and papers. The pragmatic question discussed here is the strengths and shortcomings of the state of the art in economic analysis of fertility determinants. Efforts to view fertility as a response to time and resource constraints and market determined exchange prices have begun to yield a substantial and largely consistent literature of empirical investigations. Section 2 outlines the evaluation of this framework for analyzing fertility, and Section 4 evaluates the estimated magnitude and importance of several of the apparently causal relationships assumed by this framework. Section 3 briefly reviews the problems of statistically modeling reproductive behavior and estimating model parameters. In Section 5 it is argued that if the evaluation of population policy interventions is to become a more precise science, analysis should focus on fertility and not contraceptive services. Section 6 summarizes the empirical results from various evaluation studies of the Taiwan Family Planning Program. The final section considers how the demand approach to fertility determinants might help in the future to choose among broad types of policy interventions. (Author/JM)

In the study of the determination of family size it is natural to focus on variables that describe the position of parents at the time of family formation. In fact, however, we do not have perfect measures of all that is relevant at this time; and for some of the "true" variables that matter, better proxies may be found in variables that describe the families from which the husband and wife came. This study explores the relationship between the number of children that couples have and some variables describing the background of the husband. When a man had an affluent or educated father and came from a small family or from a non-farm background, he and his wife tend to have fewer children than other couples. This is not just because these couples were themselves more affluent or educated; even when the "current" variables are introduced into the analysis, a statistically significant effect of the background variables persists. The effect of the background variables may be due to taste differences or to differences in prices and opportunities not adequately measured by the "current" variables. Professor Easterlin hypothesized that those who grew up in affluent parental homes would tend to have fewer children than others because of the tastes for a high standard of living acquired there. (Author/JM)

The central issue of this report is the wide range of parameter estimates of labor supply responses produced by previous econometric studies based on cross sectional data. Considerable public and private debate as to how the existing welfare system should be reformed has fostered renewed study of how welfare related government policies affect people's behavior, particularly how different welfare reform proposals would alter the division of time between market work and other activities. The task undertaken here is a sensitivity analysis of the different methods and formulations by which researchers have previously estimated labor supply responses. The approach taken is a step-by-step exploration of alternative labor supply estimating equatios that attempts to identify the independent (marginal) effect of each particular change in the form of these equations. The sensitivity of response parameters to changes in the measure of market labor supply by an individual to changes in the way an individual's wage is measured, to how non-wage related income effects are estimated, and to who is included in the estimating sample is considered. By systematically exploring what difference each of these changes makes to the parameter estimates, it is possible to isolate which factors strongly affect estimated response parameters. (Author/JM)

This report is intended to provide urban decisionmakers--mayors, city managers, planning directors, key staff and line officials, city councilmen--and citizen groups with a guide to some of the issues that surround the effort to bring urban growth under control. The report attempts to be neutral in regard to whether urban growth should be controlled, suggesting instead that communities should ask themselves why they want to control growth (if they do) as a first question in examining how to control. Two analysis-based views on urban change must not, however, be concealed. First, it is very easy to confuse causes and effects in urban growth. Second, it may be easy to control growth within a limited political jurisdiction, but if the locally determined objective is to control growth over a broad area, it is very easy for rigorous control of the parts to allow continued chaos of the whole. Following an introduction, the second section of this report takes up various possible objectives of urban growth control and their implications; Section Three discusses the possibilities of different kinds of control; Section Four goes into some detail on issues raised by "side effects" of attempting to control urban growth. Then Section Five addresses the question of how urban growth might be controlled. (Author/JM)

The purpose of the study reported here was to assess the various decentralization efforts as they occurred in different services and in different cities. The study reviewed decentralization's record in terms of five outcomes: (1) Increases in the flow of information between servers and served; (2) Improvements in service officials attitudes; (3) Improvements in client attitudes; (4) Improvements in services delivered; (5) Increases in client control. The study was based on an assessment of 215 previously written case studies of decentralization, collected from published sources as well as from federal agency records. The case studies covered such innovations as police-community relations programs, team policing, neighborhood health centers, new neighborhood multiservice facilities, little city halls, ombudsmen and complaint procedures and district control of schools. The Community Action and Model Cities programs prepared the groundwork for urban decentralization. However, each of these federal programs emphasized only one of the two dimensions of decentralization. The first dimension of decentralization, coming mainly from the Community Act Program, involves a client imperative. A second, equally important dimension coming more from the Model Cities experience invokes a territorial imperative. (Author/JM)

Urban decentralization is an attempt to reorganize local services through some combination of: (1) giving service recipients or clients greater responsibility over service policies (the client dimension) and (2) increasing service resources at the level of specific, geographically defined neighborhoods (the territorial dimension). The reorganization can stem from one or more of seven possible strategies; community relations, physical redeployment, administrative decentralization, grievance mechanism, employment of neighborhood residents, new neighborhood institutions, and/or political decentralization. These seven strategies fall into three groups that reflect the degree of intended decentralization along either the client or territorial dimension. The first four are weak strategies, the next two are moderate strategies, and the last may be considered a strong strategy. The present study is a summary assessment of 269 case studies of urban decentralization, dealing with three major questions: What have been the outcomes of the decentralization innovations, as reported by the case studies? What is the relationship between these outcomes and the attempt to implement weak, moderate and strong decentralization strategies? What is the relationship between these outcomes and various other factors? (Author/JM)

Urban problems have been discussed for so long and with so little effect that the litany of urban crisis is now a hollow incantation. One way out is to go back to the neighborhoods and experience "urban problems" as they affect particular people and places. The author's own street-level perspective was gained in five months of field work on the Lower East Side of New York City. Today the area includes Jewish concentrations, Puerto Ricans, Blacks, some Italians, a burgeoning Chinese population, and Polish and Ukranian neighborhoods. To walk the streets of the lower East Side is to see the urban past and how it has evolved--both changing and unchanged--into the present. As a participant-observer in one urban neighborhood, the author tried to answer four different sorts of questions: (1) How did Government programs affect the neighborhood? (2) What was the impact of street-level bureaucrats' in the area? (3) How did local residents adapt to life in their neighborhood? (4) How did neighborhood organizations respond to local problems? The sidewalk observer's most important realization is that citizen resources and energies remain a powerful but still latent force at the street level and that there is little being done in City Hall to build neighborhood democracy on the foundation. (Author/JM)

It is proposed in this document that the selectivity of migration, in terms of both people and places become a more imposing influence in urbanization as the role of natural increase as a source of urban growth diminishes. Recent U.S. growth policy proposals have frequently been marked by a simplistic view of how urban growth works, compounded by an exaggerated sense of what policy has in its power to do. On the one hand, policymakers fail to perceive the full momentum of demographic change that could be guided; but they also underestimate the force of demographic constraints on their intended actions. This paper considers five aspects of the migration process related to these points: (1) the concentration of migratory growth in only a few metropolitan areas; (2) migration's apparently one-sided economic wisdom, arising out of the weakness of economic 'push'; (3) the potential for return migration, which derives from latent migratory predispositions coupled with new sources of retirement income; (4) wide local variations among metropolitan areas in the rate of migratory circulation; and (5) the intensifying phenomenon of urban population decline, now a characteristic of entire metropolitan areas. It is possible for a national growth policy to be development-oriented and for it to build on the processes of change. (Author/JM)

The standard one-period labor supply model that economists have used is in some ways an inadequate tool to evaluate a Family Assistance Plan (FAP). The principal difficulty is that an FAP will have important interperiod or life cycle effects. The pure life cycle model, an extension of the work of Becker and Ghez, is derived here without reference to its implications for an FAP. The timing of market participation is shown to depend upon the life cycle wage pattern of men and women, the rate of interest and the rate of time preference, and any age-related changes in the productivity of nonmarket uses of time. A comparison of the predictions of the pure life cycle and pure oneperiod models attempts to clarify circumstances under which the life cycle model should be used and those under which the single-period model is appropriate. The theoretical model is then used to predict and analyze the expected labor supply effects of an FAP. Finally, human capital investments are included in the model. The final section contains an empirical simulation of the predicted effects of an FAP on the hours behavior of men and women. These results suggest what the theory itself implied--a much larger effect of an FAP on the work behavior of married women than on the work behavior of male heads of households. (Author/JM)

Although planning theory is regarded as an analysis of the relationship of knowledge to action by many theories, a view from the poor and minority strata of this society suggests a different alternative--that planning theory is an analysis of the relationship of "knowledge" to inaction, particularly with regard to the continuation of deteriorating conditions in inner cities. This is because the body of thought referred to as "Planning Theory" has not provided planners or politicians with any illuminating tools with which to serve the interest of urban poor and minority groups. The proposed models of societal guidance and change may describe existing conditions, but they describe them inadequately to allow required changes to be made in the system. It is the thesis of this article that this inadequate description stems from three basic conceptual problems that are not addressed in the literature. These problems are: (1) the failure to provide theories which are both rigorous and relevant to the urban experience and the means for their implementation; (2) an incomplete analysis of the urban political and economic milieux; and (3) the confused role of the planner in this setting. This article attempts to explain them as a first step in the future development of a more workable "Urban Planning Theory". (Author/JM)

The United States is a highly urbanized nation with space in abundance, yet large portions of its national territory are emptying out. The counterpart of this pervasive population decline is a highly selective pattern of growth, conferred by a national system of migration flows that has increasingly favored a certain few metropolitan areas. This duality of growth and decline, and its dependence on an intricate system of migration flows, are central features of U.S. urbanization. Migration is a key observable phenomenon, expressing the urbanization process and hence promising insight into its workings. This paper examines U.S. migration first from a broad analytical viewpoint and then through the experience of two specific cities. Section Two considers the functions and dynamics of the migration process: what causes migration to occur, what its effects are on migrants, and how it affects the places they leave and the places to which they go. Sections Three and Four present two specific metropolitan area case studies within which general urbanization phenomena are examined: San Jose, California, a case study of rapid population growth; and the city of Saint Louis which exemplifies central-city population decline. (Author/JM)

Given the general social thrust toward progress in the 1960's, it is proposed here that the points in the system where black economic progress took place were those points where white resistance was less. Current data indicates the achievement of significant progress by black women--relative to white women and black men--in all regions of the country, significant progress of black men in the South, but astonishingly little relative economic progress of black men in the non-southern states. The progress of black males in the South and the lack thereof in the non-south is a phenomenon for which one explanation is offered here. Arguments regarding the value of full employment in augmenting the black-white earnings ratio, and in facilitating the development of programs for the disadvantaged, appear to be correct. However, the active pursuance of full employment as a policy has not been greatly evident, except as an artifact of military activity. Moreover, it seems unlikely that any of the special programs initiated during the 1960's were very significant in improving the earnings ratios for women and southern men, even given the favorable economic environment. On the other hand, civil rights pressures presumably had a direct impact upon discriminatory activity, without the mediating activity of specific governmental agencies. (Author/JM)

The use of computers in areas of testing, selection, and placement processes for those in military services' training programs are viewed in this paper. Also discussed is a review of the motivational and theoretical foundation of admissible probability testing, the role of the computer in admissible probability testing, and the authors' experience with computer-based systems. (Author/DEP)

Examined are methodologies for modeling students' choices among higher education institutions. A statistical technique called "conditional logit analysis" is applicable to the problem studied. These applications are reviewed and certain weaknesses inherent in the approach are pointed out. Alternative approaches are offered, based on the use of Bayes' Theorum, which is easier to use, more flexible, and less expensive to apply. In empirical tests, it is also observed to have greater predictive power than conditional logit analysis. (Author)

The document presents the corporate and managerial policy results of quantitative models of an individual's propensity to terminate from manpower programs. The models were tested using a sample from 10 firms participating in the National Alliance of Businessmen (NABS) and the Job Opportunities in the Business Sector (JOBS) programs formed to identify, hire, and train unemployed members of the secondary labor market and to integrate them into the primary labor market. The withdrawal processes were studied using econometric simultaneous equation techniques along with multivariate statistical and probabilistic methods including reliability theory. A simultaneous model of turnover, retention, and absenteeism was developed, in order to investigate the hypothesized relationship between absenteeism and turnover. It includes the disaggregation of job satisfaction into a number of variables and also the introduction of supervisory variables. The study supports the assumption that turnover and attendance do not have identical determinants. Solely in terms of significance the findings show company policy variables to be the most important determinants of the propensity to terminate. The implications of the findings for hiring and supervisory policies relating to programs attempting to integrate disadvantaged workers are discussed at some length. A list of references is included and statistical data and analyses appended. (Author/EC)

The original evaluation of the effect of Emergency School Assistance Programs (ESAP) in the second year, indicated that black male tenth graders in schools receiving the emergency aid did significantly better on a test of academic performance than did similar students in non-funded comparison schools. No program effects were reported for other groups of students. The analysis reported here accounts for the programs effect on black males. The orientation of this investigation is exploratory and not confirmatory in nature, and this is reflected in all stages of the work. The aim is to search for clues, not clear-cut certainties, about the existence and causes of program success. Basically five issues are addressed as follows: (1) did ESAP alter the racial climate of the funded schools; (2) are there relationships between student educational performance and non-cognitive variables that are dependent on his race and sex; (3) what did ESAP buy; (4) can teacher and student non-cognitive variables be related to particular educational programs; and, (5) can educational achievement levels be linked to non-cognitive variables and these in turn to educational programs. It is suggested that ESAP changes the attitudes and behaviors of white males and black females in a positive direction. (Author/AM)

California is under court order (Serrano v. Priest) to revise the system of financing public elementary and secondary education. Initial analysis had predicted that a shift to statewide taxation would result in greater educational resources at a lower tax cost for lower income families and fewer resources at a higher tax cost for wealthier families. However, this analysis overlooked the role of nonresidential property values in the tax base. This paper presents simulation results for California school districts of three alternatives: statewide property taxation, district power equalizing property taxation, and statewide income taxation for education. The results show that any alternative for taxation has the result of most families being "better off." Property tax proposals shift the costs of education to industrial and commercial land uses, and the income tax alternative shifts the costs among families. (Author)

This study was designed to: (1) derive a set of weights for student-faculty rating item scores that maximize differences in mean rating scores for groups of students known to have experienced real differences in instructional effectiveness; and (2) attempt to cross validate the new scoring methods in a second study of students who rated lectures under the same conditions. Participants in the first study were 207 undergraduate and graduate students who were enrolled in general studies sections, while participants in the second study were 213 students enrolled in 12 sections of an undergraduate psychology course. The four types of faculty lectures were: (1) high information-high enthusiasm; (2) high information-low enthusiasm; (3) low information-high enthusiasm; (4) low information-low enthusiasm. In the first study, sections of the same class were randomly divided, while in the second study intact sections of the same class constituted the study group. Lecturers were randomly assigned to student groups. Students in all groups viewed one lecture presentation, rated the presentation using an 18-item questionnaire, and were tested on the material. The use of discrimination analysis to develop student-rating scales that are valid with respect to faculty enthusiasm is supported by this study. This study also indicated that empirically based selection and weighting of items does not improve the validity of student rating scores in detecting real differences in information giving. Current practices in the evaluation of teaching effectiveness are limited almost entirely to proxy measures, namely, student ratings. (SK)

Out of a factual description of the national demographic and economic context of higher education in general the authors offer interpretations for community colleges emphasizing three trends significant to educational planners: (1) Demographic pressure that made for increased enrollments in the past will dissipate at the traditional college-going age range, but continue at the somewhat older ages, when people are commonly drawn back to higher education, especially to community colleges; (2) since the present oversupply of college-educated persons is likely to persist for more than a few years, it is likely that the gap between the expected lifetime earnings of college and high school graduates will continue to narrow; and (3) in light of the high and rapidly rising costs associated with college attendance, it is reasonable to anticipate continued low rates of college enrollment compared with the late 1960's and, possibly, futher decline in these rates. (Author/JT)

This study investigates how local school districts behave in allocating their budgets among teachers, other professional educators, support personnel, and nonpersonnel inputs. Demands for school inputs are estimated using U.S. Office of Education data on the expenditure and staffing patterns of large (enrollments in excess of 10,000 students) school districts in the 1969-70 school year. In general, results suggest that districts' allocative behavior at the margin is quite different from their average allocative behavior. In particular, relatively small proportions of budget increases (occasioned, perhaps, by reforms in school finance) would be allocated to employing additional teachers. (Author)

This research examines the effects of structure and content variables on memory and comprehension of prose passages. A process model for the comprehension of stories is proposed which assumes that stories are encoded in a hierarchical organizational framework which represents the abstract structural relationships of the plot. The implications of the model for the quality and characteristics of subjects' memory for stories were tested in a series of experiments using undergraduate college students. The study revealed that: (1) recall of a story was a function of the amount of inherent plot structure in the story; (2) story summarizations from memory tended to emphasize general structural characteristics rather than specific content; (3) structure and content manipulations significantly influenced recall; and (4) false recognition rates for implicit inferences from a story were a function of the plausibility of the inferences and their roles as organizing and integrating devices for other information in the story. (Author/LL)

The Rand paper on programs facilitating the mid-life career redirection of unemployed aerospace professionals is 1 of 20 policy-related research reports commissioned by the Division of Social Systems and Human Resources in the Research Applied to National Needs Program of the National Science Foundation. It is based on the evaluation of some 300 items of literature on the topic of mid-life career redirection. Evaluation criteria were internal and external validity and policy relevance. The paper evaluates those items which assess the effectiveness of the private and public sectors of our economy to mount schemes to deal with the problem of the involuntary career change of aerospace engineers and scientists. It assesses employment programs ranging from those based on the assumption that comparable jobs are available somewhere in the economy to others which assume that retraining and skills conversion are required in order to get professionals reemployed. The review of the literature revealed that unsuccessful retraining programs failed because of inadequate program design, retraining costs, trainees' age, and the nature of labor market information systems. It was concluded that, if retraining programs were to be successful, counseling and job information services should be a prominent feature of such programs. (Author/BP)

This report addresses a variety of questions about inequalities in school finance, and answers them by applying a broad range of statistical techniques to a comprehensive set of data on California school districts. Census data by school district was drawn from the 1970 U.S. Census, while information on school district finance for 1971-72 was obtained from official state sources. Although the report describes research relating almost solely to public school finance in California, it can also serve as a model for the analysis of school finance in other states. A basic question/answer format is used throughout the report, and extensive use is made of illustrative graphs and data tables. In addition to a general introduction, the report contains four major sections dealing with dimensions of inequality, distribution of inequality, sources of inequality, and remedies for inequality. (Author/JG)

The report investigates production and the cost effects of teaching within hospital departments. Models of primary production show that the cost effects of teaching are determined by the salaries paid to students (including residents, interns, medical students, and technical trainees) and physicians, by the levels of student inputs used in production, and by the productivity of student and nonstudent inputs. The models of departmental production developed permit costs to be related to the level of student inputs rather than to the more abstract variable, teaching output. Empirical analyses of radiology costs in 90 general medical and surgical hospitals in the Veterans Administration system were conducted. The empirical results suggest that, with the exception of one variable whose interpretation is suspect, teaching reduces costs for most individual radiology procedures. Although the VA system differs from non-VA hospitals in many respects, the apparent cost reductions for many radiology outputs suggest that students can be substituted for nonstudent inputs in radiology. If costs of primary products can be reduced through teaching, as the radiology results suggest, it would be possible for teaching hospitals to provide a given medical program for patients at lower costs than in nonteaching hospitals. (Author/JR)

The fourth in a series of Rand reports on information transfer problems of the partially sighted reviews earlier reports and describes an experimental secretarial closed circuit TV (CCTV) system which enables the partially sighted to type from a printed or handwritten manuscript. Discussed are experiments using a pseudocolor system to determine the most suitable color of print and background for use with the CCTV. Reading rates for normally sighted people using the CCTV are the focus of additional research reported. A final section compares the results and administration data for four methods of detecting visual color deficiencies, including the modified Farnsworth Dichotomous test for Color Blindness. Appended is information on the chromaticity of the Conrac color TV monitor. (CL)

Using a regression analysis technique, the authors produced a profile of clients, many of whom are Mexican-American, of the East Los Angeles Youth Training and Employment Project (YTEP), in an attempt to correlate YTEP participation with probable later success. In addition to data from an earlier Rand survey of 7,659 clients, YTEP collected program data from 229 of 501 sampled. Results were considered low in predictive value because of (1) the questionnaire method, and (2) the size of the population sample. Findings from the questionnaire responses are tabulated and discussed in detail. Analysis of independent variables (age, sex, education, time since client last attended YTEP, and length of stay in YTEP) led to the conclusion that clients who had the greatest amount of education and who spent the longest time in YTEP had the highest probability of success. It was not possible to determine from the results which aspect of the YTEP program to emphasize. The report also recommended that poverty programs have their own data collection systems and exercise quality control in them. (MDW)

Four groups of people were requested to review the Rand Corporation's design for a longitudinal study of school desegregation. When the study design documents were sent to the reviewers, an evaluation questionnaire was attached. The reviewers were asked to add any needed clarifying comments in the spaces provided after each question, and to write up to six pages (single spaced typing) of additonal comments. The most important points are listed in this document for each reviewer, and an attempt is made to indicate whether the reviewer's overall view is positive or negative. Many of the reviewers criticized various aspects of the proposed instruments. The narrative comments provided by the reviewers suggest a wide spectrum of opinion about the Rand study design. Despite the fact that there are areas of clear disagreement, there are also areas of clear agreement. There is disagreement about whether the Commission should try to implement a study based on the Rand design. There seems to be fairly strong agreement that the Rand study, and perhaps any feasible study, will not produce many unambiguous answers to important policy questions, but a majority of the reviewers also felt that such a study could provide more reliable answers than are presently available to some of those questions. (JM)

In past Head Start evaluations, cognitive measures have been weighed heavily. This has not accurately reflected the relative unimportance of cognitive program goals; child performance gains are not an objective with high priority for most Head Start programs. Evaluation planners need to weigh previously encountered measurement problems carefully and decide to adopt either a reliability-based strategy placing emphasis on careful test administration or a validity-based strategy assuming that what is needed is a fundamental reconceptualization of the measurement of cognitive effects, developing new measures. As priorities for cognitive measurement, this study argues that the new evaluation should stress readiness, cognitive process, and social competency and if it is decided to adopt a validity-based strategy, lists of clearly defined behavioral objectives must be drawn up in those realms of stress and then to create or adopt instruments to measure these objectives. What is needed is a battery of face-valid, empirically based, criterion-referenced instruments intended to measure short-term effects. Choice of measures is integrally related to choice of evaluation design. The new evaluation might consider some departure from pre- and post-testing, instead testing three times during the year or only once at the end. (RC)

A student's choice of an answer to a test question is a coarse measure of his knowledge about the subject matter of the question. Much finer measurement might be achieved if the student were asked to estimate, for each possible answer, the probability that it is the correct one. Such a procedure could yield two classes of benefits: (a) students could learn the language of numerical probability and use it to communicate uncertainty, and (b) the learning of other subjects could be facilitated. This report describes the rationale underlying a procedure for eliciting personal estimates of probabilities utilizing a proper scoring rule, and illustrates some new techniques for calibrating those probabilities and providing better feedback to students learning to assess uncertainty. In addition, new results are presented comparing the incentive for study, rehearsal, and practice provided by the proper scoring rule with that provided by the simple choice procedure, and concerning the potential effect of cutoff scores and prizes upon student behavior. (Author)

Numerous strategies have been used throughout the years to test cultural groups. This paper grew out of the need to find and use standardized tests that would depict accurately the performance of various cultural groups in America. In order to make judgments about performance, it is wise to examine the theoretical structure from which most of the existing tests were developed. Accordingly, the paper traces the development of the various strategies and theoretical structures, explaining why they have met with limited success. Through a paradigmatic analysis of the literature, it identifies the existing testing paradigm as a monocultural one, and it relates the various efforts to produce a culture-fair test. The paradigmatic analysis is extended to encompass a proposition, based upon the coalescence of the scientific (theoretical and measurement) and policy contexts. The analysis suggests a procedure by which tests can be developed and/or evaluated if they are to depict accurately the performance of various cultural groups. (Author)

This report is one of three volumes that describe the second phase of a study that examined the implementation of four federal change agent programs related to education. Phase 2 of the study focused on what happens to local projects in the two largest change agent programs--ESEA Title III and ESEA Title VII--when federal funding stops. This particular volume presents an analysis of survey data collected in 100 Title III projects in 20 states, focusing specifically on the questions of implementing, sustaining, and spreading part or all of innovative project strategies after federal support ends. (JG)

This report is one of three volumes that describe the second phase of a study that examined the implementation of four federal change agent programs related to education. Phase 2 of the study focused on what happens to local projects in the two largest change agent programs--ESEA Title III and ESEA Title VII--when federal funding stops. This particular volume discusses the complex process of establishing bilingual programs in local school districts, with particular attention to those aspects of the Title VII program and those political influences that affect local implementation. Data for this report were gathered through case studies conducted between April 1974 and May 1976 at 11 Title VII Spanish/English project sites, telephone and personal interviews in 1974 with personnel at 10 state education agencies, and interviews with federal Title VII personnel. (JG)

This paper discusses the impact and implications of school finance equalization, focusing in particular on the Serrano case and its effect on school finance in California. The paper is organized in three main parts. Section 1 is an introductory section that discusses the major legal and practical implications of several court cases involving school finance systems. Section 2 describes California's school finance system as modified in 1973 by Senate Bill 90, in partial response to the Serrano decision. Section 3 examines the impact of the Serrano decision on school finance in California, focusing specifically on its impact on school spending and taxes and its impact on educational reform. (JG)

The paper discusses a study which was conducted to identify and analyze attitudes of young lawyers towards legal specialization and relicensing of lawyers. A sample of 1485 readers of "Barrister Magazine" participated in the study. Lawyers responding to the survey valued specialization both as a means for providing better legal services and as an attractive feature for lawyers. With regard to the structure of specialization programs, responding lawyers showed a strong preference for programs of certification rather than self-designation. Most responding lawyers would require attendance at continuing legal education courses and some form of screening process to determine which lawyers should be recognized as specialists. Despite general support for specialization programs, nonspecialists, new lawyers, and lawyers practicing in small offices indicated concern that specialization programs would adversely affect their own practice. The questionnaire responses also showed strong support for relicensing programs and for mandatory continuing education courses as an appropriate vehicle for improving the quality of legal practice. Survey questions and their results by specialty status, location, length of practice, and size of office are presented and discussed in tables which conclude the study. (Author/DB)

Thirteen studies have evaluated the potential benefits from military training that individuals gain upon leaving active duty. Despite the fact that three-fourths of military jobs have direct civilian counterparts, most of these studies indicate that military training does not have a positive effect on the civilian job opportunities for veterans. The conclusions of these studies, however, are questionable because of the methodologies and samples used. Three different approaches have been tried relying on (1) opinion survey data from separatees or retirees, (2) cross-tabulations of occupational codes comparing the military specialty of separatees with their current civilian occupations, and (3) multiple regression analysis to measure the economic benefits in civilian life that separatees derive from service training. The results have also been influenced by the use of limited samples (for example, separatees with only two years or less of active duty or only infantrymen) or by the time period in which the selected sample served their tours of duty. Because of the restricted scope of these previous studies, future research should be broadened to consider issues such as the return to training for separatees who use their military skills in the civilian sector compared to the return for those who do not; comparison between individuals in the same occupation who have military training and those who do not; and the distinction between formal and informal military training. (A bibliography is also included.) (ELG)

The results relating to staff development, contained in a Rand Corporation survey on change agents, are summarized in this paper. The researchers discovered that successful staff development program implementation was characterized by three major components: local materials development, online planning, and concrete, ongoing training. Their research indicated two basic types of staff development models--the deficit model and the "developmental strategy" model. The developmental strategy model involves teachers and principals in preparing for change and is not standardized. The school district offers consistent financial support and relies on local resource people to guide innovative efforts whenever possible. The researchers conclude that effective staff development depends much more on the district's point of view about principals and teachers as learners than on the specifics of the staff development program. (Author/DS)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential impact, on the distribution of labor income, of a policy that requires that in each firm minority workers: (1) receive the same wages as majority workers given the same job classifications and, (2) are employed in the same proportion as majority workers in all job classifications. This analysis is directed to the question of the maximum potential of affirmative action policies. Given that Affirmative Action Policies (AAP) have two principle provisions (equal pay for equal work, and mandatory hiring in each firm of minority workers to fill at least a specified fraction of skilled positions), the effects of the policy will depend on the size of the quota relative to the number of skilled minority workers in the economy, the degree to which the minority groups suffer labor market discrimination, and the nature of the way firms react to the new environment. Three different situations are explained: what happens when the quotas are set just equal to the supply of skilled workers, when quotas are set at less than the supply of skilled workers. In the remainder of the paper the implications of AAP for a number of special cases are investigated. For each case, a numerical model of income differences between the races is used. In the last section a model of heterogeneous labor is employed to investigate the potential impact of AAP on the incentives for minority and majority labor to acquire skills. (Author/AM)

Black male earnings have gradually increased relative to white male earnings since 1940, with the rise during the 1960's and early 1970's larger than that observed earlier. Five possible explanations account for this narrowing of racial wage differences: (1) a convergence in black and white income producing characteristics; (2) enhancement in the perceived quality of these income producing characteristics, e.g., schooling quality; (3) effects of migration; (4) effects of government affirmative action and reduction in labor market discrimination; and (5) business cycle variation. Extensive statistical analysis based on the Current Population Survey for 1968 through 1975 supports these explanations. Tables of data and a bibliography are included in this document. (PR)

Characteristics and determinants of earnings distributions for black and white males are revealed in samples from the 1960 and 1970 censuses. Using this data, this paper describes and contrasts the properties of black and white male earnings distributions. It also uses earnings functions estimated from the census to identify and rank variables in terms of their contribution in explaining relative earnings dispersion. Extensive statistical analysis is used to make predictions about black and white earnings. A short bibliography is included. (Author/PR)

This study investigates the strategies people use to acquire knowledge from maps. Among the questions examined were (1) what distinguishes poor learners from good learners, and (2) how do the learning strategies of map-using experts differ from those of nonexpert learners? Eight subjects participated in the study. Five were undergraduate students at the University of California at Los Angeles and three were experts with military or scientific expertise in map reading. All subjects were given two maps of an imaginary town and country. They were allowed six trials of two minutes each in which to learn the information in the maps well enough to draw them from memory and answer questions about their contents. During the six trials they were required to think aloud about how they were going about learning the maps. Analysis of the subjects' verbal reports and performance on a test of map content indicated that four types of learning processes were used: attention, encoding, evaluation, and control. The use of processes for encoding spatial information (storing it in long-term memory and relating it to other information already learned) was most predictive of learning performance. Good learners differed from poor learners in their ability to evaluate their learning progress and to focus their attention on unlearned information. (Author/AV)