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This tutorial aims at promoting good practices for exposure-response (E-R) analyses of clinical endpoints in drug development. The focus is on practical aspects of E-R analyses to assist modeling scientists with a process of performing such analyses in a consistent manner across individuals and projects and tailored to typical clinical drug development decisions. This includes general considerations for planning, conducting, and visualizing E-R analyses, and how these are linked to key questions.

Background: AZD3043 (THRX-918661) is an investigational phenylpropanoid sedative/anesthetic that is rapidly metabolized by esterases in blood and liver. In the first-in-man study, a 30-minute constant IV infusion of AZD3043 induced anesthesia without major safety or tolerability concerns and with rapid recovery characteristics., Methods: The primary objective of this phase 1, single-center, open-label study (clinicaltrials.gov NCT00984880) was to evaluate the safety and tolerability of AZD3043 administered as a single IV bolus and as a bolus followed by infusion. Secondary objectives included evaluation of AZD3043 pharmacodynamics and efficacy. Sequential ascending dose cohorts of 8 healthy volunteers aged 18 to 65 years received either a single 1-minute bolus IV infusion (part A) or a 1-minute bolus followed by a 30-minute infusion (part B). Assessments included adverse events, vital signs, blood gases, laboratory values, clinical signs of sedation/anesthesia, and bispectral index score., Results: Seventy-two subjects (8 females, 64 males) received AZD3043 doses of 1, 1.5, 2, 4, and 6 mg/kg bolus over 1 minute (part A) or 0.8 + 10, 1 + 15, 3 + 30, and 4 + 40 mg/kg bolus + mg/kg/h infusion for 30 minutes (part B). There were no discontinuations. Adverse events occurring in >1 subject were headache (n = 15; 21%), nausea (n = 7; 10%), vomiting (n = 3; 4%), and fatigue (n = 2; 3%). Twenty-one subjects experienced at least 1 adverse event. There seemed to be no dose relationship associated with any adverse event. Ventilation was maintained, but there was a dose-dependent increase in heart rate. There were no spontaneous reports of pain on injection. Thirty-two subjects were anesthetized, including all subjects in the highest dose group in part A and all subjects in the 2 highest dose groups in part B. Recovery from anesthesia was rapid, with swift return of orientation and proprioception. All subjects were able to walk 10 m without support at their first assessment, 30 minutes after end of dosing, except for 1 subject in each of the 2 mg/kg bolus (part A) and 4 mg/kg bolus + 40 mg/kg/h 30-minute infusion (part B) dose groups, who passed this test at the subsequent assessment, 45 minutes after the end of dosing. Involuntary movements were observed at higher doses, accompanied by increased muscle tone., Conclusions: AZD3043 provided rapid recovery from anesthesia with maintained ventilation. Further studies are warranted in a clinical setting.

The objectives of the present study were to evaluate safety and tolerability as well as the effects of multiple doses of lanicemine on the pharmacokinetics of a CYP3A substrate, midazolam. A total of 46 healthy volunteers were enrolled in the open-label, fixed-sequence, nonrandomized study. All volunteers received an oral dose of 5 mg of midazolam alone or after 6 days of 150 mg daily intravenous infusion of lanicemine. Lanicemine reached a plasma Cmax of 1.51 μg/mL after 150 mg daily dosing to steady state. The geometric mean CL, Vss, and t1/2 of lanicemine were 8.1 L/h, 122.0 L, and 10.4 hours, respectively. The geometric least-squares mean ratios and 90% confidence intervals for midazolam AUC0- ∞ , and Cmax were within the 80% to 125% limits when lanicemine plus midazolam treatment was compared with midazolam alone, demonstrating that daily dosing with 150 mg of lanicemine for 6 days had no effect on CYP3A activity. Comprehensive physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling using in vitro and in silico findings also indicated lanicemine would have little impact on the pharmacokinetics of CYP3A substrate, such as midazolam. In addition, lanicemine and midazolam administered alone or in combination were generally safe and well tolerated., (© 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.)

The purpose of this work was to develop a consolidated set of guiding principles for the reporting of population pharmacokinetic (PK) analyses based on input from a survey of practitioners as well as discussions between industry, consulting, and regulatory scientists. The survey found that identification of population covariate effects on drug exposure and support for dose selection (in which population PK frequently serves as preparatory analysis for exposure-response modeling) are the main areas of influence for population PK analysis. The proposed guidelines consider 2 main purposes of population PK reports: (1) to present key analysis findings and their impact on drug development decisions, and (2) as documentation of the analysis methods for the dual purpose of enabling review of the analysis and facilitating future use of the models. This work also identified 2 main audiences for the reports: (1) a technically competent group responsible for in-depth review of the data, methodology, and results; and (2) a scientifically literate but not technically adept group, whose main interest is in the implications of the analysis for the broader drug development program. We recommend a generalized question-based approach with 6 questions that need to be addressed throughout the report. We recommend 8 sections (Synopsis, Introduction, Data, Methods, Results, Discussion, Conclusions, Appendix) with suggestions for the target audience and level of detail for each section. A section providing general expectations regarding population PK reporting from a regulatory perspective is also included. We consider this an important step toward industrialization of the field of pharmacometrics such that a nontechnical audience also understands the role of pharmacometric analyses in decision making. Population PK reports were chosen as representative reports to derive these recommendations; however, the guiding principles presented here are applicable for all pharmacometric reports including pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and simulation reports., (© 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American College of Clinical Pharmacology.)

BMS-911543, a promising anticancer agent, exhibited time-dependent and dose-dependent nonlinear pharmacokinetics (PKs) in its first-in-human (FIH) study. Initial physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling efforts using CYP1A2-mediated clearance kinetics were unsuccessful; however, further model analysis revealed that CYP1A2 time-dependent inhibition (TDI) and perhaps other factors could be keys to the nonlinearity. Subsequent experiments in human liver microsomes showed that the compound was a time-dependent inhibitor of CYP1A2 and were used to determine the enzyme inactivation parameter values. In addition, a rat tissue distribution study was conducted and human plasma samples were profiled to support the refinement of the PBPK model. It was concluded that the interplay between four BMS-911543 properties, namely, low solubility, saturation of the metabolizing enzyme CYP1A2, CYP1A2 TDI, and CYP1A2 induction likely resulted in the time-dependent and dose-dependent nonlinear PKs. The methodology of PBPK model-guided unmasking of compound properties can serve as a general practice for mechanistic understanding of a new compound's disposition.

R788 (fostamatinib) is an oral prodrug that is rapidly converted into a relatively selective spleen tyrosine kinase (SYK) inhibitor R406, evaluated for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This analysis aimed at developing a pharmacodynamic model for efficacy using pooled ACR20 data from two phase II studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (TASKi1 and TASKi2), describing the effect of fostamatinib as a function of fostamatinib exposure (dose, R406 plasma concentration) and other explanatory variables. The exposure-response relationship of fostamatinib was implemented into a continuous time Markov model describing the time course of transition probabilities between the three possible states of ACR20 non-responder, responder, and dropout at each visit. The probability of transition to the ACR20 response state was linearly (at the rate constant level) related to average R406 plasma concentrations and the onset of this drug effect was fast. Further, increases of fostamatinib dose resulted in increased dropout and subsequent loss of efficacy. This analysis provided an increased understanding of the exposure-response relationship, and provided support for fostamatinib 100 mg BID an appropriate dose regimen for further clinical evaluation., (© 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.)

In the kidney, glucose in glomerular filtrate is reabsorbed primarily by sodium-glucose cotransporters 1 (SGLT1) and 2 (SGLT2) along the proximal tubules. SGLT2 has been characterized as a high capacity, low affinity pathway responsible for reabsorption of the majority of filtered glucose in the early part of proximal tubules, and SGLT1 reabsorbs the residual glucose in the distal part. Inhibition of SGLT2 is a viable mechanism for removing glucose from the body and improving glycemic control in patients with diabetes. Despite demonstrating high levels (in excess of 80%) of inhibition of glucose transport by SGLT2 in vitro, potent SGLT2 inhibitors, e.g., dapagliflozin and canagliflozin, inhibit renal glucose reabsorption by only 30-50% in clinical studies. Hypotheses for this apparent paradox are mostly focused on the compensatory effect of SGLT1. The paradox has been explained and the role of SGLT1 demonstrated in the mouse, but direct data in humans are lacking. To further explore the roles of SGLT1/2 in renal glucose reabsorption in humans, we developed a systems pharmacology model with emphasis on SGLT1/2 mediated glucose reabsorption and the effects of SGLT2 inhibition. The model was calibrated using robust clinical data in the absence or presence of dapagliflozin (DeFronzo et al., 2013), and evaluated against clinical data from the literature (Mogensen, 1971; Wolf et al., 2009; Polidori et al., 2013). The model adequately described all four data sets. Simulations using the model clarified the operating characteristics of SGLT1/2 in humans in the healthy and diabetic state with or without SGLT2 inhibition. The modeling and simulations support our proposition that the apparent moderate, 30-50% inhibition of renal glucose reabsorption observed with potent SGLT2 inhibitors is a combined result of two physiological determinants: SGLT1 compensation and residual SGLT2 activity. This model will enable in silico inferences and predictions related to SGLT1/2 modulation.

The biopharmaceutics risk assessment roadmap (BioRAM) optimizes drug product development and performance by using therapy-driven target drug delivery profiles as a framework to achieve the desired therapeutic outcome. Hence, clinical relevance is directly built into early formulation development. Biopharmaceutics tools are used to identify and address potential challenges to optimize the drug product for patient benefit. For illustration, BioRAM is applied to four relatively common therapy-driven drug delivery scenarios: rapid therapeutic onset, multiphasic delivery, delayed therapeutic onset, and maintenance of target exposure. BioRAM considers the therapeutic target with the drug substance characteristics and enables collection of critical knowledge for development of a dosage form that can perform consistently for meeting the patient's needs. Accordingly, the key factors are identified and in vitro, in vivo, and in silico modeling and simulation techniques are used to elucidate the optimal drug delivery rate and pattern. BioRAM enables (1) feasibility assessment for the dosage form, (2) development and conduct of appropriate "learning and confirming" studies, (3) transparency in decision-making, (4) assurance of drug product quality during lifecycle management, and (5) development of robust linkages between the desired clinical outcome and the necessary product quality attributes for inclusion in the quality target product profile., (© 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.)

Context: Human growth hormone (hGH) replacement therapy currently requires daily sc injections for years/lifetime, which may be both inconvenient and distressing for patients. NNC0195-0092 is a novel hGH derivative intended for once-weekly treatment of GH deficiency. A noncovalent albumin binding moiety is attached to the hGH backbone. Clearance is reduced as a consequence of a reversible binding to circulating serum albumin, which prolongs the pharmacodynamic (PD) effect., Objective: To evaluate safety, local tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and pharmacodynamics (PD) of a single dose (SD) and multiple doses (MD) of NNC0195-0092., Setting and Design: Randomized, single-center, placebo-controlled, double-blind, SD/MD, dose-escalation trial of 105 healthy male subjects. NNC0195-0092 sc administration: Five cohorts of eight subjects received one dose of NNC0195-0092 (0.01-0.32 mg/kg) (n = 6) or placebo (n = 2). Sixteen subjects (equal numbers of Japanese and non-Asian) received once-weekly doses of NNC0195-0092 (0.02-0.24 mg/kg; n=12) or placebo (n=4) for 4 weeks. Blood samples were drawn for assessment of safety, PK, IGF-1, and IGF binding protein 3 profiles and anti-drug antibodies., Results: SD and MD of NNC0195-0092 were well tolerated at all dose levels. No safety concerns or local tolerability issues were identified. A dose-dependent IGF-1 response was observed. IGF-1 profiles suggest that NNC0195-0092 may be suitable for once-weekly dosing, with a clinically relevant dose ≤0.08 mg/kg/week. No differences in PK and PD were observed between Japanese and non-Asian subjects., Conclusions: SD and MD of NNC0195-0092 administered to healthy Japanese and non-Asian male subjects were well tolerated at all doses. The present trial suggests that NNC0195-0092 has the potential for an efficacious, well-tolerated, once-weekly GH treatment.

Background and Objective: Vandetanib is a selective inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR), epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and rearranged during transfection (RET) signalling, indicated for the treatment of medullary thyroid cancer. We investigated potential drug-drug interactions between vandetanib and metformin [organic cation transporter 2 (OCT2) substrate; NCT01551615]; digoxin [P-glycoprotein (P-gp) substrate; NCT01561781]; midazolam [cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 substrate; NCT01544140]; omeprazole (proton pump inhibitor) or ranitidine (histamine H2-receptor antagonist; both NCT01539655)., Methods: Four open-label, phase I studies were conducted in healthy volunteers: n = 14 (metformin), n = 14 (digoxin), n = 17 (midazolam), n = 16 (omeprazole), n = 18 (ranitidine). Three of these comprised the following regimens: metformin 1000 mg ± vandetanib 800 mg, midazolam 7.5 mg ± vandetanib 800 mg, or digoxin 0.25 mg ± vandetanib 300 mg. The randomized study comprised vandetanib 300 mg alone and then either (i) omeprazole 40 mg (days 1-4), and omeprazole + vandetanib (day 5); or (ii) ranitidine 150 mg (day 1), and ranitidine + vandetanib (day 2). The primary objective assessed metformin, digoxin, midazolam and vandetanib pharmacokinetics., Results: Vandetanib + metformin increased metformin area under the plasma concentration-time curve from zero to infinity (AUC0-∞) and maximum observed plasma concentration (Cmax) by 74 and 50 %, respectively, and decreased the geometric mean metformin renal clearance (CLR) by 52 % versus metformin alone. Vandetanib + digoxin increased digoxin area under the concentration-time curve from zero to the last quantifiable concentration (AUC0-last) and Cmax by 23 and 29 %, respectively, versus digoxin alone, with only a 9 % decrease in CLR. Vandetanib had no effect on midazolam exposure. Vandetanib exposure was unchanged during co-administration with omeprazole/ranitidine. Treatment combinations were generally well tolerated., Conclusion: Patients receiving vandetanib with metformin/digoxin may require additional monitoring of metformin/digoxin, with dose adjustments where necessary. Vandetanib with CYP3A4 substrates or omeprazole/ranitidine is unlikely to result in clinically relevant drug-drug interactions.

What Is Known and Objective: AZD7325 is a selective gamma-amino-butyric acid (GABAA )α2, 3 receptor modulator. The aims of this analysis were to develop population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models of AZD7325 and midazolam and to assess the induction effect of AZD7325 on CYP3A4 with midazolam as a substrate., Methods: Drug-drug interaction data of AZD7325 and midazolam from 24 healthy subjects were available for model development. PPK models were developed in a sequential manner using NONMEM. Both AZD7325 and midazolam pharmacokinetics were described by two-compartment models, and a transit compartment absorption model and a first-order absorption model were applied for the absorption of AZD7325 and midazolam, respectively. The induction of CYP3A by AZD7325 was described by a transit enzyme model, where the elimination of midazolam was proportionally linked to the enzyme amount. Simulations were performed to predict dosing regimens to account for the induction of CYP3A4., Results and Discussion: The population estimates for AZD7325 clearance, intercompartmental clearance, central and peripheral volume were 36, 29·2 L/h, 169 and 392 L, respectively, with interindividual variability (IIV) of 35% and 24% for clearance and central volume. Midazolam clearance, intercompartmental clearance, central and peripheral volume were estimated to be 62·7, 34·7 L/h, 133 and 146 L, respectively, with 43% IIV for clearance. The estimated mean transit time for induction of the CYP3A4 enzyme was 197 h, with 57% IIV., What Is New and Conclusion: The PPK models developed adequately described the clinical observation of AZD7325-mediated CYP3A4 enzyme induction with midazolam as a probe. The model could provide basis for the rational dosing of AZD7325 in clinical practice., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The link between glucose and HbA1c at steady state has previously been described using steady-state or longitudinal relationships. We evaluated five published methods for prediction of HbA1c after 26/28 weeks using data from four clinical trials. Methods (1) and (2): steady-state regression of HbA1c on fasting plasma glucose and mean plasma glucose, respectively, (3) an indirect response model of fasting plasma glucose effects on HbA1c, (4) model of glycosylation of red blood cells, and (5) coupled indirect response model for mean plasma glucose and HbA1c. Absolute mean prediction errors were 0.61, 0.38, 0.55, 0.37, and 0.15% points, respectively, for Methods 1 through 5. This indicates that predictions improved by using mean plasma glucose instead of fasting plasma glucose, by inclusion of longitudinal glucose data and further by inclusion of longitudinal HbA1c data until 12 weeks. For prediction of trial outcome, the longitudinal models based on mean plasma glucose (Methods 4 and 5) had substantially better performance compared with the other methods.

TC-5214 (dexmecamylamine) is a nicotinic channel modulator that has previously been evaluated for treatment of major depression disorder (MDD) and is currently being evaluated by Targacept as a treatment for overactive bladder. A comprehensive population pharmacokinetic (POP PK) model of TC-5214 was developed using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling of pooled plasma concentration data from 6 early phase I studies in 179 healthy participants or patients with non-MDD and 1 phase II study in 68 MDD patients. Concentration-time profiles of TC-5214 after either single or multiple oral doses of TC-5214 was described by a one-compartment model with first-order absorption with lag time and first-order elimination. Covariate analysis revealed that creatinine clearance was a significant covariate on clearance and that body weight significantly influenced the central volume of distribution. The final model (with identified covariates) was used to simulate steady-state exposure for patients with impaired renal function. Results from forest plots reveal that patients with moderate to severe renal impairment or end stage renal disease are associated with significantly higher Cssmax and AUC compared to patients with normal renal function. The proposed final POP PK model could be employed in defining a TC-5214 dosage regimen in patients with impaired renal function., (© 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.)

Avibactam, a novel non-β-lactam β-lactamase inhibitor with activity against Ambler class A, class C, and some class D enzymes is being evaluated in combination with various β-lactam antibiotics to treat serious bacterial infections. The in vivo mass balance recovery and metabolite profile of [(14)C] avibactam (500 mg/1-h infusion) was assessed in six healthy male subjects, and a series of in vitro experiments evaluated the metabolism and drug-drug interaction potential of avibactam. In the mass balance study, measurement of plasma avibactam (using a validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method) and total radioactivity in plasma, whole blood, urine, and feces (using liquid scintillation counting) indicated that most of the avibactam was excreted unchanged in urine within 12 hours, with recovery complete (>97% of the administered dose) within 96 hours. Geometric mean avibactam renal clearance (158 ml/min) was greater than the product of unbound fraction of drug and glomerular filtration rate (109.5 ml/min), suggesting that active tubular secretion accounted for some renal elimination. There was no evidence of metabolism in plasma and urine, with unchanged avibactam the major component in both matrices. Avibactam demonstrated in vitro substrate potential for organic anion transporters 1 and 3 (OAT1 and OAT3) proteins expressed in human embryonic kidney 293 cells (Km > 1000 μM; >10-fold the Cmax of a therapeutic dose), which could account for the active tubular secretion observed in vivo. Avibactam uptake by OAT1 and OAT3 was inhibited by probenecid, a potent OAT1/OAT3 inhibitor. Avibactam did not interact with various other membrane transport proteins or cytochrome P450 enzymes in vitro, suggesting it has limited propensity for drug-drug interactions involving cytochrome P450 enzymes.

Background: The progression of kidney function and frequency of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with the Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) is unknown, although CKD is linked to increased mortality., Methods: This longitudinal retrospective study evaluates the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in 143 MPN patients over a period of 9 years., Results: 29% of patients had CKD stage 3 or 4 at time of diagnosis. 20% of patients had a rapid annual loss of eGFR (>3mL/min/1.73m(2)) and eGFR was negatively correlated to monocyte and neutrophil counts., Conclusion: Kidney impairment might contribute to the increased mortality observed in MPN patients., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Late-phase clinical trials within diabetes generally have a duration of 12-24 weeks, where 12 weeks may be too short to reach steady-state glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). The main determinant for HbA1c is blood glucose, which reaches steady state much sooner. In spite of this, few publications have used individual data to assess the time course of both glucose and HbA1c, for predicting HbA1c. In this paper, we present an approach for predicting HbA1c at end-of-trial (24-28 weeks) using glucose and HbA1c measurements up to 12 weeks. The approach was evaluated using data from 4 trials covering 12 treatment arms (oral antidiabetic drug, glucagon-like peptide-1, and insulin treatment) with measurements at 24-28 weeks to evaluate predictions vs. observations. HbA1c percentage was predicted for each arm at end-of-trial with a mean prediction error of 0.14% [0.01;0.24]. Furthermore, end points in terms of HbA1c reductions relative to comparator were accurately predicted. The proposed model provides a good basis to optimize late-stage clinical development within diabetes.CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2013) 2, e82; doi:10.1038/psp.2013.58; advance online publication 30 October 2013.

The glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist liraglutide was approved in 2010 by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as an adjunct treatment to diet and exercise to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This article provides insights into the use of pharmacometric analyses for regulatory review with a focus on the dosing recommendations. The assessment was based on the totality of exploratory and confirmatory analysis of dose-finding and pivotal clinical data and was structured around a set of key questions in accordance with current FDA review practice. For the pharmacometric review of liraglutide, the key questions focused on exposure-response relationships for effects on fasting plasma glucose, hemoglobin A(1c), and calcitonin and on variability in exposure across demographic subgroups of patients. The importance of conducting exploratory exposure-response analysis and population pharmacokinetic studies in clinical drug development to support dosing recommendations is highlighted.

Background: nonacog beta pegol (N9-GP) is a glycoPEGylated recombinant factor IX (rFIX) molecule with a prolonged half-life., Objectives: To provide information on potential dose regimens for N9-GP for phase 3 pivotal and surgery trials., Methods: A population pharmacokinetic model was developed from single-dose data derived from the first human-dose trial with N9-GP in hemophilia B patients, and was used to extrapolate to steady-state conditions for different N9-GP dose regimens for prophylaxis. The model was also used to compare prophylaxis using N9-GP with standard prophylactic regimens using rFIX or plasma-derived (pd) FIX (40 IU kg(-1) every third day). Plasma activity following dosing with N9-GP, rFIX and pdFIX for surgery and on-demand treatment of bleeds was also simulated., Results: A linear two-compartmental model best described the pharmacokinetic profiles of N9-GP, rFIX and pdFIX. A prophylactic regimen of 10 U kg(-1) N9-GP once weekly predicted mean peak and trough levels of 18 and 4.2 U dL(-1) , while 40 U kg(-1) once weekly predicted values of 72 and 17 U dL(-1) , respectively. Standard prophylactic regimens with rFIX and pdFIX predicted mean peak and trough levels of 34 and 3.9 IU dL(-1) for rFIX, and mean values of 43 and 2.1 IU dL(-1) for pdFIX. Additional simulations predicted significantly reduced dosing frequency and factor concentrate consumption for N9-GP vs. rFIX and pdFIX for surgery and the treatment of bleeds., Conclusions: N9-GP may allow prophylaxis, surgical dosing regimens and on-demand treatment of bleeding episodes with less frequent injections and lower factor concentrate consumption; this possibility is being investigated in prospective clinical trials., (© 2012 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.)

GLP-1 is an insulinotropic hormone that synergistically with glucose gives rise to an increased insulin response. Its secretion is increased following a meal and it is thus of interest to describe the secretion of this hormone following an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). The aim of this study was to build a mechanism-based population model that describes the time course of total GLP-1 and provides indices for capability of secretion in each subject. The goal was thus to model the secretion of GLP-1, and not its effect on insulin production. Single 75 g doses of glucose were administered orally to a mixed group of subjects ranging from healthy volunteers to patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Glucose, insulin, and total GLP-1 concentrations were measured. Prior population data analysis on measurements of glucose and insulin were performed in order to estimate the glucose absorption rate. The individual estimates of absorption rate constants were used in the model for GLP-1 secretion. Estimation of parameters was performed using the FOCE method with interaction implemented in NONMEM VI. The final transit/indirect-response model obtained for GLP-1 production following an OGTT included two stimulation components (fast, slow) for the zero-order production rate. The fast stimulation was estimated to be faster than the glucose absorption rate, supporting the presence of a proximal-distal loop for fast secretion from L: -cells. The fast component (st₃) = 8.64·10⁻⁵ [mg⁻¹]) was estimated to peak around 25 min after glucose ingestion, whereas the slower component (st₄ = 26.2·10⁻⁵ [mg⁻¹]) was estimated to peak around 100 min. Elimination of total GLP-1 was characterised by a first-order loss. The individual values of the early phase GLP-1 secretion parameter (st₃) were correlated (r = 0.52) with the AUC(0-60 min.) for GLP-1. A mechanistic population model was successfully developed to describe total GLP-1 concentrations over time observed after an OGTT. The model provides indices related to different mechanisms of subject abilities to secrete GLP-1. The model provides a good basis to study influence of different demographic factors on these components, presented mainly by indices of the fast- and slow phases of GLP-1 response.

A quickly realizable benefit of model-based drug development is in reducing uncertainty in risk/benefit, comprising individually of safety and effectiveness, two key attributes of a product evaluated for regulatory approval, marketing, and use. In this review, we investigate gaps and opportunities in using fundamental decision analytic principles in drug development and present a quantitative clinical pharmacology framework for the application of such aids for early clinical development decision making. We anticipate that implementation of such emerging tools will enable sufficient scientific understanding of the two attributes to facilitate the early termination of compounds with less than desirable risk/benefit profiles and continuance of compounds with acceptable risk/benefit profiles.