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For rural households in the north of Vietnam, maize cropping is the main source of income. In the face of the world market price increases of the recent past, we analyze the regional marketing chain of this commodity qualitatively and econometrically investigating to what extent smallholder farmers in developing countries are affected by international price movements. Vietnamese maize markets are found to be well integrated. Recent price hikes have fully transmitted along the regional supply chain so that farmers profited. Nevertheless, adverse factors such as increasing input prices have neutralized these benefits resulting in a decline in real income of smallholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the season-average price projections for U.S. corn as published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ( WASDE), an important issue given reduced resources and increased program scrutiny within the Federal Government. This study is the first in the literature to evaluate the WASDE corn projections relative to futures adjusted forecasts throughout the forecasting cycle using a lengthy evaluation period (1980/81-2012/13). We find that WASDE projections provide lower RMSEs relative to futures adjusted forecasts for 9 of the 16 forecast periods, 4 of which are statistically different. Encompassing tests show that WASDE projections often provide incremental information not present in the futures adjusted forecasts. Composite forecasts based on futures adjusted forecasts and WASDE projections reduced the RMSEs over all forecast periods by an average 12-16%. Favorable average trading profits may be generated for some forecast months using WASDE projections. Overall, our results suggest that WASDE projections of the U.S. corn season-average price provide useful information to the market and could enhance the efficiency of the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perfect farm-retail price transmission sometimes is taken to mean an elasticity of price transmission (EPT) equal to 1.We show that this definition is inconsistent with Gardner's (1975) model. We also show that the absolute marketing margin (defined as the difference between the retail price and farm price) responds differently to shifts in retail demand, input supply, and technical change in the marketers' production function than does the relative marketing margin (defined as the ratio of the retail price to the farm price). The empirical implications of these results are discussed in some detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns have been raised that trading position behavior of futures market participants may have caused recent commodity price movements. This study empirically examines whether pressures on prices due to hedging and speculative activities can be identified and whether they have changed due to structural changes in commodity futures markets. It employs Toda-Yamamoto Granger-causality tests applied on a variety of measurements of hedging, speculative, and index trader position activities and futures prices in a broad range of commodity markets. Results suggest that hedging and speculative position behavior may not be helpful in explaining prices; to the contrary, prices may have predictive power for position changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets, the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future, putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification. To evaluate how, in this context, economic choices may alter crop yields, we first construct different fertilizer price scenarios to 2050 based on an econometric relation with oil and gas prices. Other possible scenarios, such as the continuation of historical trends, are also considered. The resulting changes in fertilizer price range between +0.8% and +3.6% per year over the 2005-2050 period. These scenarios are tested in a global land-use model incorporating an endogenous representation of the land-fertilizer substitution. We find that the supply-side response to rising fertilizer prices could lower crop yields in 2050 from −6% to −13%, with a corresponding increase in global cropland area ranging between 100 and 240 Mha if the demand for food and nonfood products has to be met. The sensitivity of these results is tested with regard to assumptions on food consumption, change in potential yield and nutrient use efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

England from 1200 to 1600 was a society caught in apparent technological stasis, typical of the pre-industrial world. Many believe this pre-industrial stagnation was the result of political and cultural constraints, such as those on the operation of markets. Indeed medieval English law outlawed many arbitrage activities in markets. The paper shows using information of grain yields and prices at 227 different locations that the most important of all markets, that for grain, was nevertheless both extensive and relatively efficient as early as 1209. Whatever the rhetoric of medieval law and social thought the real effect of constraints on the operation the grain market seems to have been minimal. England had an elaborate market economy at least 500 years before it had sustained economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the seminal cobweb model of Brock and Hommes, firms adapt their price expectations by a profit-based switching behavior between free naïve expectations and costly rational expectations. Brock and Hommes demonstrate that fixed-point dynamics may turn into increasingly complex dynamics as the firms’ intensity of choice increases. We show that policy-makers are able to manage such rational routes to randomness by adjusting profit taxes. In particular, policy-makers should increase (decrease) profit taxes if destabilizing expectations generate higher (lower) profits than stabilizing expectations to alter the composition of applied expectation rules and thereby to promote market stability. Our results are not restricted to cobweb models: a huge body of literature demonstrates that rational routes to randomness may emerge in many different markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Price volatility of food staples is one of the most complex factors affecting food security. Recent food price crises have raised academic interest in improved volatility assessment. The widely held assumption in econometric volatility models that long-run volatility is constant, has been recently questioned and partly blamed for these crises. A multiplicative MGARCH model recently proposed by Bauwens et al. is used in this article to model price volatility transmission along the Niger millet marketing chain. Results suggest important volatility links between consumer and producer prices, as well as noteworthy differences between short and long-run price dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the correlation of agricultural prices with stock market dynamics. We discuss the possible role of financial and macroeconomic factors in driving this time-varying relation, with the aim of understanding what caused positive correlation between agricultural commodities and stocks in recent years. While previous works on commodity-equity correlation have focused on broad commodity indices, we study 16 agricultural prices, in order to assess patterns that are specific to agricultural commodities but also differences across markets. We show that an explanation based on a combination of financialization and financial crisis is consistent with the empirical evidence in most markets, while global demand factors don’t appear to play a significant role. The correlation between agricultural prices and stock market returns tends to increase during periods of financial turmoil. The impact of financial turmoil on the correlation gets stronger as the share of financial investors in agricultural derivatives markets rises. Our findings suggest that the influence of financial shocks on agricultural prices should decrease as global financial tensions settle down but also that, as long as agricultural markets are ‘financialized’, it might rise again when it is less needed, i.e. in the presence of new financial turmoil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes idiosyncratic and common determinants of commodity prices by adopting a time series-cross section approach. Different from the previous empirical literature, we allow for long-run and short-run effects, testing for cointegration and accounting for cross-dependence among different commodities. An automatic model selection algorithm is used to obtain a dominant congruent econometric model, selecting among many potential explanatory variables. As the effects of commodity prices’ determinants may vary over time and across commodities and we are estimating single conditional models, poolability and exogeneity issues are also evaluated. Our results indicate that commodity price formation in the long run is determined by supply and demand factors, apart from the US exchange rate. We find significant effects of individual commodity production and the demand-pull of China’s economy. The economic growth of both emerging and developed countries as well as the dollar’s depreciation, inventory changes, and easier monetary policies also have significant short-run effects on real commodity prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organic agriculture, which produces commodities that can be qualitatively differentiated from conventional food products, has grown into an important market in many countries. The dynamics of commodity prices in both sectors are partly interdependent, but are also shaped by independent determinants and have rarely been studied. We analyze organic food markets and their interdependencies with conventional markets in the context of wheat markets in Germany, which have been subject to a number of fundamental changes during the last two decades. Based on institutional market characteristics, we suggest a flexible Markov-switching asymmetric time series model. We find a pronounced temporal sequence of market phases that differ in their asymmetric dynamics and the extent to which the organic price is influenced by the conventional price. Organic wheat prices tend to be increasingly connected to prices of conventional wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive models of climatic phenomena can aid in insurance program design and decision making. Extreme weather outcomes have been linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which globally impacts agricultural production. This study demonstrates that extreme ENSO events alter cotton yield distributions in the Southeastern United States. These impacts translate into economically meaningful effects on crop insurance premium rates. Commercial insurers can use publicly available information to determine if government-set premium rates are mispriced, and in turn extract economic rents via the federally mandated Standard Reinsurance Agreement. By ceding underpriced policies in El Niño and La Niña years, we find that private insurance companies can reduce paid indemnities by 10-15% on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article assesses the impact of the Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak in the Turkish poultry market by focusing on price transmission at producer and retail levels. The relationship and patterns of transmission between producer and retail prices are analysed by estimating a Regime-Switching Vector Error Correction Model with three regimes. An AI information index variable is developed and used to determine regime-switching. Results suggest that consumer prices adjust to disequilibrium caused by the AI crisis, while producer prices are sticky and slowly responsive. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

ABSTRACT The objective of this article is to assess the validity of the Law of One Price (LOP) in five major EU broiler markets. This has been pursued using weekly price data from 1991 to 2012 and recent developments in econometric methodology that account simultaneously for nonstationarity, nonlinearity, and structural breaks. The empirical results provide strong evidence that the LOP holds, predominantly in its weak version. This implies that shocks are fully transmitted from one spatial market to the others, but price differences among them are likely to persist even in the long-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This study estimates the cost of forward contracting corn and soybeans for January and March delivery from 1980 through 2009. Both corn and soybeans exhibited a downward trend in the cost of forward contracting for January delivery, in contrast to previous pre-harvest results, and the March delivery cost of forward contracting is slightly downward sloped. The cost of post-harvest forward contracting corn and soybeans averaged 2 cents and 6 cents respectively; this was much less than the cost of pre-harvest forward contracting in recent years. We did not find an increase in cost associated with income shifting associated with January delivery. We conclude that January forward contracts offer a relatively inexpensive means of smoothing income across years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian agricultural sector provides food security for the nation and affects the livelihood of farmers and the development of rural communities. This sector has been uneasy about the Australian carbon tax scheme introduced in July 2012 although the government has exempted the agricultural sector from the scheme. By employing a computable general equilibrium model and an environmentally extended Social Accounting Matrix, this article simulates the effects of different carbon tax policy scenarios. The modeling results show that all agricultural sectors will be affected negatively but to differing degrees. The household compensation policy will improve the performance of the poultry and fishing sectors, while having opposite effects in the other agricultural sectors. The inclusion of the agricultural industry into the carbon tax scheme will lead to a considerable further decrease in output, employment and profitability in the agricultural sector, and a significant further reduction in real GDP, but a much larger emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Allias and Nichèle (Eur Rev Agric Econ, 34(4):517-538, ) proposed a Markov-switching almost ideal demand system (MS-AIDS) model by extending the idea of Hamilton (Econometrica, 57(2):357-384, ). In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation for MS-AIDS model and illustrate applicability of our proposed method. We then run two sets of simulation studies to confirm the validity of the proposed method. In the empirical study on the Japanese meat market, our Bayesian estimation improves the MSEs for all meat products over the ML estimation, while successfully capturing the regime shifts of meat demand coinciding with the timing of bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases in Japan and US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand price changes, one must determine the relative impact of supply and demand shifts on price. Conditional on predetermined supply and demand elasticities, we retrieve yearly shifts in regional supply and demand. The relative impact on price from each supply and demand shift is determined through an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). This procedure is applied on a yearly basis for the world salmon market in the period 2002 to 2011. The results indicate a large variation in demand and supply growth both over time and between regions. While average annual price impacts from supply or demand shifts from most regions are not statistically significant, price impacts from supply or demand shifts for specific periods are detected in all but one region. This indicates that the use of smooth trend indicators is likely to be inappropriate for measuring supply and demand shifts and their impacts on price. The procedure presented in this article can be a useful instrument for determining the relative impacts of supply and demand shifts on price in any market with unstable price behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper looks at price integration in the aquaculture and wild-harvested African catfish market channels in Uganda. The issue of integration between the two market channels is important because African catfish has become an important traded species in Uganda with exports to regional markets rising even faster than production, yet limited research has been undertaken to understand price formation in the supply chain. The analysis draws on monthly price data from January 2006 to August 2013, and applies threshold autoregressive approaches to test for the existence of a long-run relationship and price asymmetry and to determine the time path needed for shocks to be transmitted from one market channel to the other. The results show that, over the studied period prices in both market channels are linked in the long-run, implying that farm-raised catfish forms part of the same market as wild-harvested catfish in the country. The findings have strong implications for aquaculture producers and artisanal fishers as they can serve as a basis for more efficient farm management and marketing decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While U.S. consumption of olive oil has tripled over the past two decades, nearly all olive oil continues to be imported. Estimation of a demand system using monthly import data reveals that the income elasticity for virgin oils sourced from EU is above one, but demand for nonvirgin oils is income-inelastic. The demand for olive oil as a single product is price-inelastic. Differentiated by product characteristic and origin, olive oils are highly substitutable with each other but not with other vegetable oils. News about the health and culinary benefits of olive oil and the spread of Mediterranean diet contribute significantly to the rising demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. This study makes estimations of monthly (i.e., seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for the world's principal staple food crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected food supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.40; price volatility tends to reduce acreage for some of the crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of an essence for acreage response. The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in the northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first article that econometrically estimates the global land-use change impact of bioenergy. Applying time-series analytical mechanisms to fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodity prices and production, we estimate the long-run relationship between energy prices, bioenergy production and the global land-use change. Our results suggest that rising energy prices and bioenergy production significantly contribute to the global land-use change both through the direct and indirect land-use change impact. Globally, the total agricultural area yearly increases by 35 578.1 thousand ha due to increasing oil price, and by 12 125.1 thousand ha due to increasing biofuel production, which corresponds to 0.73% and 0.25% of the total worldwide agricultural area, respectively. Soya land-use change and wheat land-use change have the highest elasticities with respect to both oil price and biofuel production. In contrast, nonbiomass crops (grassland and rice) have negative land-use change elasticities. Region-specific results suggest that South America faces the largest yearly total land-use change associated with oil price increase (+10 600.7 thousand ha), whereas Asia (+8918.6 thousand ha), South America (+4024.9 thousand ha) and North America (+1311.5 thousand ha) have the largest yearly total land-use change associated with increase in biofuel production. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Over the last decade, commodity prices have registered substantial booms and busts marked by extreme volatility. Wheat in particular, one of the main nonoil commodities, has registered a roller coaster in price levels which seems to be inconsistent with supply and demand fundamentals. To acutely investigate the drivers of wheat prices and quantify their impact, a vector error correction model (VECM) has been used. The exogenous variables have been distinguished into four groups: market-specific factors, broad macroeconomic determinants, speculative components, and weather variables. The quadriangulation of the determinants will enable us to better understand the movements in wheat price and identify the specific role of each component. The results show that a mix of factors are contributing to wheat price movements, including speculation, global demand, and real effective exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses comovements and discusses possibly greater market integration between aggregate food commodity and stock prices in the period 1990 to 2012. Return correlations, price return distributions, cointegration and Granger-causalities are tested in subsamples on monthly FAO Food Price Index and MSCI World Stock Market Index. Empirical results suggest that while there is only weak indication of greater comovements concurrent with structural changes such as changed agricultural policies, new demand due to growth in emerging markets and energy mandates and the financialization of food markets since the early 2000s, they did start to increase substantially in particular during the financial stress of the Lehman crisis and the Great Recession. While structural changes may have amplified price linkages across markets, results do not suggest that they are the key factors for greater price comovements. Instead, the effects of the late-2000s recession as a time of great economic weakness and uncertainty may have changed concurrently the behaviour of both food and financial market participants, such that different market prices exhibit large comovements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, the international wheat market has been considered a good example of a market with perfect competition. Yet, several articles provide evidence of imperfect competition and price discrimination in the wheat trade. However, these studies focused on traditional high-quality wheat exporters such as Canada and the United States. In contrast, this article investigates whether Russian wheat exporters exercise market power in eight selected importing countries using the residual demand elasticity (RDE) model. The article makes two major contributions. First, it focuses on a nontraditional exporter, who exports mainly wheat of mediocre quality to low- and middle-income countries. Second, the RDE model is estimated for the first time using a nonlinear estimator, the instrumental variable Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. This is important because the double logarithmic functional form can provide biased results in the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate that Russian wheat exporters can exercise market power in only a few markets, while they are price takers in the majority of importing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monetary easing of the past few years by the world’s major central banks through conventional and unconventional policies coincided with the longest and broadest commodity price boom since the Second World War. And not surprisingly, the impending normalization of monetary conditions has created expectations of a likely reversal in commodity price trends. Based on a reduced form, price-determination model which accounts for all quantifiable sectoral and macroeconomic fundamentals, this note finds that the effect of short-term interest rates on metal prices is mixed and modest. But, changes in longer term rates have a positive and highly significant impact. The note also concludes that metal prices respond (in that order) to industrial production, input prices, US dollar movements and physical stocks of metals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and cotton experienced higher volatility in the second half of the 2000s. For the sample at hand, the unit root tests only validate a new period of high volatility for wheat and cotton. If in the next couple of years however, corn, rice and soybeans maintain their higher volatility, a new period of high volatility may also be validated statistically. Regarding the factors driving the intrayear volatility GMM estimates show that 'commodity market fundamentals' i.e., the stock-to-use ratio and to a lesser extent the degree of internationalization, are the most systematically statistically significant coefficients among commodities. Over time, consecutive low stock-to-use ratios and a thin international market provoke typically high volatility. Speculative activity and liquidity in the agricultural derivative market have a stabilizing effect on the spot price, if any. Finally, 'common macro' factors significantly impact volatility, especially the volatility of petrol and of exchange rates; their dispersion importance over the sample is quite sizeable. However, it is difficult to establish a link between, on the one hand, loose monetary policy, business cycle and inflation, and, on the other hand, commodity price volatility, as the sign of the estimated coefficient changes depending on the commodity and the estimated elasticities are quite low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past 30 years, palm oil production has increased ninefold, with almost all the growth occurring in Malaysia and Indonesia. This growth has been associated with extensive deforestation, with biofuels often named as the principal driver. However, other drivers have been less examined; in particular, restrictions on genetically modified food in Europe and on trans fats in many developed countries have led food companies to switch to using palm oil in production. This article uses a price analysis to examine the drivers of palm oil production growth during the 1980–2010 boom. Soya bean oil is used in the analysis as the leading vegetable oil, while crude oil represents the energy market; the prices of these oils, along with palm oil, are tested in vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error correction models. The two models consistently find that palm oil prices do not appear to respond to short-run fluctuations in crude oil prices. Rather, they are a function of lagged palm oil prices and current and lagged soya bean oil prices. Overall, the results indicate that while palm and soya bean oil markets have a potentially significant relationship, the crude oil market does not appear to have been an important driver of the palm oil boom. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]