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In 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggest that by the 2050s warming trends will cause mean warm-season VPD to be comparable to the record-high VPD observed in 2011. CMIP5 projections also suggest increased interannual variability of VPD, independent of trends in background mean levels, as a result of increased variability of dewpoint, temperature, vapor pressure, and saturation vapor pressure. Increased variability in VPD translates to increased probability of 2011-type VPD anomalies, which would be superimposed on ever-greater background VPD levels. Although temperature will continue to be the primary driver of interannual VPD variability, 2011 served as an important reminder that atmospheric moisture content can also drive impactful VPD anomalies.

The Southwestern US is projected to continue the current significant warming trend, with increased variability in the timing and magnitude of rainfall events. The effects of these changes in climate are already evident in the form of multi-year droughts which have resulted in the widespread mortality of woody vegetation across the region. Therefore, the need to monitor and model forest mortality and carbon dynamics at the landscape and regional scale is an essential component of regional and global climate mitigation strategies, and critical if we are to understand how the imminent state transitions taking place in forests globally will affect climate forcing and feedbacks. Remote sensing offers the only solution to multitemporal regional observation, yet many challenges exist with employing modern remote sensing solutions in highly stressed vegetation characteristic of semi-arid biomes, making one of the most expansive biomes on the globe also one of the most difficult to accu- rately monitor and model. The goal of this research was to investigate how changes in the structure of semi-arid woodlands following forest mortality impacts ecosystem function, and to determine how this question can be addressed using remotely sensed data sets. I focused primarily on Pinus edulis and Juniperous monosperma (piñon-juniper) woodlands, and took advantage of an existing manipulation experiment where mortality was imposed on all of the large piñon (¡ 7 cm dbh) in a 4 ha PJ woodland in 2009 and the ecosystem functional responses have been quantified using eddy covariance. A nearby intact PJ woodland, also instrumented with eddy covariance, was used as a control for this experiment. I tested the ability of high resolution remote sensing data to mechanistically describe the patterns in overstory mortality and understory green-up in this manipulated woodland by comparing it to the intact woodland, and observed the heterogeneous response of the understory as a function of cover type.

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

1The rate of CO2 assimilation by plants is directly influenced by the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, ca. As an environmental variable, ca also has a unique global and historic significance. Although relatively stable and uniform in the short term, global ca has varied substantially on the timescale of thousands to millions of years, and currently is increasing at seemingly an unprecedented rate. This may exert profound impacts on both climate and plant function. Here we utilise extensive datasets and models to develop an integrated, multi-scale assessment of the impact of changing ca on plant carbon dioxide uptake and water use. We find that, overall, the sensitivity of plants to rising or falling ca is qualitatively similar across all scales considered. It is characterised by an adaptive feedback response that tends to maintain 1 - ci/ca, the relative gradient for CO2 diffusion into the leaf, relatively constant. This is achieved through predictable adjustments to stomatal anatomy and chloroplast biochemistry. Importantly, the long-term response to changing ca can be described by simple equations rooted in the formulation of more commonly studied short-term responses.

Drought-induced forest mortality is an increasing global problem with far-reaching consequences, yet mortality mechanisms remain poorly understood. Depletion of non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) stores has been implicated as a major factor in drought-induced mortality, but experimental field tests are rare. We conducted an ecosystem-scale precipitation manipulation experiment and evaluated leaf and twig NSC dynamics of two co-occurring conifers with different water regulation strategies; the relatively drought-averse piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and relatively drought-tolerant oneseed juniper (Juniperus monosperma). Experimental drought caused decreased leaf starch in dying trees of both species and increased allocation to glucose and fructose in juniper, consistent with osmoregulation requirements. For both species, average leaf starch content between drought treatment initiation and mortality was a good predictor (R2 = 0.77) of survival duration. These results, along with observations of drought-induced reductions to photosynthesis and growth, implicate carbon starvation as an important process during mortality of these two conifer species.

Summary • Second-generation Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have recently been developed that explicitly represent the ecological dynamics of disturbance, vertical competition for light, and succession. Here, we introduce a modified second-generation DGVM and examine how the representation of demographic processes operating at two-dimensional spatial scales not represented by these models can influence predicted community structure, and responses of ecosystems to climate change. • The key demographic processes we investigated were seed advection, seed mixing, sapling survival, competitive exclusion and plant mortality. We varied these parameters in the context of a simulated Amazon rainforest ecosystem containing seven plant functional types (PFTs) that varied along a trade-off surface between growth and the risk of starvation induced mortality. • Varying the five unconstrained parameters generated community structures ranging from monocultures to equal co-dominance of the seven PFTs. When exposed to a climate change scenario, the competing impacts of CO2 fertilization and increasing plant mortality caused ecosystem biomass to diverge substantially between simulations, with mid-21st century biomass predictions ranging from 1.5 to 27.0 kg C m)2. • Filtering the results using contemporary observation ranges of biomass, leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) did not substantially constrain the potential outcomes. We conclude that demographic processes represent a large source of uncertainty in DGVM predictions.

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.