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Forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) tornadoes are less skillful than their non‐TC counterparts at all lead times. The development of a convection‐allowing regional ensemble, known as the Warn‐on‐Forecast System (WoFS), may help improve short‐fused TC tornado forecasts. As a first step, this study investigates the fidelity of convective‐scale kinematic and thermodynamic environments to a preliminary set of soundings from WoFS forecasts for comparison with radiosondes for selected 2020 landfalling TCs. Our study shows reasonable agreement between TC convective‐scale kinematic environments in WoFS versus observed soundings at all forecast lead times. Nonetheless, WoFS is biased toward weaker than observed TC‐relative radial winds, and stronger than observed near‐surface tangential winds with weaker winds aloft, during the forecast. Analysis of storm‐relative helicity (SRH) shows that WoFS underestimates extreme observed values. Convective‐scale thermodynamic environments are well simulated for both temperature and dewpoint at all lead times. However, WoFS is biased moister with steeper lapse rates compared to observations during the forecast. Both CAPE and, to a lesser extent, 0–3‐km CAPE distributions are narrower in WoFS than in radiosondes, with an underestimation of higher CAPE values. Together, these results suggest that WoFS may have utility for forecasting convective‐scale environments in landfalling TCs with lead times of several hours. Plain Language Summary: Landfalling tropical cyclones (known as tropical depressions, tropical storms, or hurricanes) often spawn tornadoes, which are more challenging to forecast than Great Plains tornadoes. The development of a weather forecast ensemble model, known as the Warn‐on‐Forecast system, may help improve tornado forecasts. This study compares vertical profiles of winds, temperature, moisture, and associated severe weather metrics from the Warn‐on‐Forecast with observed radiosonde data (i.e., balloon‐borne instruments) in landfalling tropical cyclones. Our analysis shows agreement between the observed and forecasted vertical structure of TC winds at all lead times including strong changes in near‐surface wind speed and direction. Nonetheless, forecasted tropical cyclone winds tend to be biased weaker than observed, which is associated with an underestimation of environmental favorability for tornadoes. Similarly, forecasted temperature and moisture are also reasonably represented compared to observations. However, Warn‐on‐Forecast tends to overestimate moisture and near‐surface temperature, with smaller‐than‐observed variability in thermodynamic environmental favorability. Together, these results suggest that the weather forecast model used here may be useful for improving forecasts of supercell environments in landfalling TCs. Key Points: Warn‐on‐Forecast tropical cyclone forecasts show reasonable agreement between observed and forecast convective‐scale kinematic environmentsForecast convective‐scale thermodynamic environments also show reasonable fidelity compared to observationsA case study shows stronger discrepancies than the full sample including weaker than observed winds, temperature inversions, and dry layers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Lava flows have presented the greatest hazard to human property during the most recent eruptions of Hawaiian volcanoes, and lava fountains are a source of these lava flows. The height of Hawaiian lava fountains reflects the exsolved gas content of the magma that controls eruption intensity. However, fountain height is not always observed, so we sought a proxy to estimate fountain heights of eruptions that were older or otherwise unobserved. Here, methods are described to empirically derive a relationship between the modal diameter of vesicles within Pele's tears and spheres and lava fountain height, using samples of Pele's tears produced during the last eruptions of Kīlauea Iki (1959) and Mauna Ulu (1969). The tears used to develop these relationships were approximately 1 to 4 mm in diameter. Additionally, since lava fountains 50-580 m high were used, the relationships we describe may only describe lava fountains in this height range. The strongest empirical relation follows the trendline Hmax = -2575d + 820, where Hmax is maximum lava fountain height and d is modal vesicle diameter. This empirical relationship may be applied to sub-Strombolian eruptions of tholeiite basalt that were not directly measured or observed to assess long-term shifts in lava fountain heights and thus the exsolved gas contents of a volcanic system. While the same conceptual framework can be applied beyond Hawai'i, the quantitative empirical relation may be slightly different in different systems, depending on total dissolved volatiles, magma chemistry and other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Purpose: To provide a descriptive analysis of the warm-up (WU) strategies employed by cross-country skiers prior to distance and sprint competitions at a national championship and to compare the skiers' planned and executed WUs prior to the respective competitions. Methods: Twenty-one national- and international-level skiers (11 women and 10 men) submitted WU plans prior to the distance and sprint competitions, and after the competitions, reported any deviations from the plans. Skiers used personal monitors to record heart rate (HR) during WU, races, and cooldown. Quantitative statistical analyses were conducted on WU durations, durations in HR-derived intensity zones, and WU loads. Qualitative analyses were conducted on skiers' WU plans and their reasons for deviating from the plans. Results: Skiers' planned WUs were similar in content and planned time in HR-derived intensity zones for both the distance and sprint competitions. However, 45% of the women and 20% of the men reported that their WU was not carried out as planned, with reasons detailed as being due to incorrect intensities and running out of time. WU activities including skiing across variable terrain, muscle-potentiating exercises, and heat-maintenance strategies were missing from the skiers' planned routines. Conclusions: Skiers favored a long, traditional WU approach for both the sprint and distance events, performing less high-intensity and more moderate-intensity exercise during their WUs than planned. In addition, elements likely relevant to successful performance in cross-country skiing were missing from WU plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...